Pub Date : 2025-06-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123
Shumin Qiu , Claudia Steinwender , Pierre Azoulay
We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.
{"title":"Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations","authors":"Shumin Qiu , Claudia Steinwender , Pierre Azoulay","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104123"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-21DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118
Bulent Guler , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Temel Taskin
This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses.
{"title":"Sovereign Debt Disclosure","authors":"Bulent Guler , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Temel Taskin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104118"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116
Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier
NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a triadic gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.
{"title":"Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism","authors":"Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a <em>triadic</em> gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104116"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121
Paul R. Bergin , Kyunghun Kim , Ju H. Pyun
This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of “fear of appreciation” slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some countries. We then develop a multi-country monetary model augmented with a “fear of appreciation” policy rule governing foreign exchange intervention, solved as an occasionally binding constraint. The model demonstrates a mechanism by which government capital flows supporting exchange rate regimes can impinge on international financial adjustment. The model accounts for substantial asymmetries in the speed of current account adjustment, based on exchange rate regime and current account sign.
{"title":"Fear of appreciation and current account adjustment","authors":"Paul R. Bergin , Kyunghun Kim , Ju H. Pyun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of “fear of appreciation” slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some countries. We then develop a multi-country monetary model augmented with a “fear of appreciation” policy rule governing foreign exchange intervention, solved as an occasionally binding constraint. The model demonstrates a mechanism by which government capital flows supporting exchange rate regimes can impinge on international financial adjustment. The model accounts for substantial asymmetries in the speed of current account adjustment, based on exchange rate regime and current account sign.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104121"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117
Yoon Joo Jo
I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with downward nominal wage rigidity is the most consistent with empirical findings regarding the shape and cyclicality of wage change distributions.
{"title":"Beyond the spike at zero: Understanding nominal wage rigidity through empirical and model-based approaches","authors":"Yoon Joo Jo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with downward nominal wage rigidity is the most consistent with empirical findings regarding the shape and cyclicality of wage change distributions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104117"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144489485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115
Yao Chen , Felix Ward
This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.
{"title":"Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes","authors":"Yao Chen , Felix Ward","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114
Daniel M. Rees
In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States’ shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.
{"title":"Commodity prices and the US dollar","authors":"Daniel M. Rees","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States’ shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104114"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119
Björn Imbierowicz , Arne Nagengast , Esteban Prieto , Ursula Vogel
We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about future losses. More prudent banks reduced their credit more extensively, and less profitable subsidiaries experienced greater reductions. However, UK subsidiaries of large MNCs, with access to internal capital markets, offset this credit supply shock through internal funding, shielding them from negative real effects. Our findings underscore that while international financial frictions following deglobalization shocks can imply negative real effects, firms integrated into global networks mitigate these impacts through internal capital markets.
{"title":"Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock","authors":"Björn Imbierowicz , Arne Nagengast , Esteban Prieto , Ursula Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about future losses. More prudent banks reduced their credit more extensively, and less profitable subsidiaries experienced greater reductions. However, UK subsidiaries of large MNCs, with access to internal capital markets, offset this credit supply shock through internal funding, shielding them from negative real effects. Our findings underscore that while international financial frictions following deglobalization shocks can imply negative real effects, firms integrated into global networks mitigate these impacts through internal capital markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104119"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106
Weidi Yuan , Difei Ouyang
This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China’s manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China’s comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry expansion can be traced to the extensive margin of new firm entry—consistent with firm-level evidence showing only a modest response among incumbent firms.
{"title":"Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s WTO accession","authors":"Weidi Yuan , Difei Ouyang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China’s manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China’s comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry expansion can be traced to the extensive margin of new firm entry—consistent with firm-level evidence showing only a modest response among incumbent firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104106"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104102
Max Marczinek , Stephan Maurer , Ferdinand Rauch
We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, the Hansa continue to shape the composition of trade: Trade between cities in the Hanseatic network continues to be facilitated by Hanseatic captains for centuries. Our paper highlights the long-run stability of commercial and social networks, which persist when other economic effects do not.
{"title":"Networks in trade — Evidence from the legacy of the Hanseatic league","authors":"Max Marczinek , Stephan Maurer , Ferdinand Rauch","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, the Hansa continue to shape the composition of trade: Trade between cities in the Hanseatic network continues to be facilitated by Hanseatic captains for centuries. Our paper highlights the long-run stability of commercial and social networks, which persist when other economic effects do not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104102"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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