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Crude Oil Price Shocks and Industrial Returns in Pakistan: An Examination through GARCH Based Dynamic Models 巴基斯坦原油价格冲击与工业回报:基于GARCH的动态模型检验
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.706
Hassan Javed, Uzma Bashir, Shoaib Hassan
This paper attempts to examine the link between crude oil prices and industrial returns in Pakistan using daily data for the period of June-2008 to Jan-2021. Mean and volatility spillover is examined by using ARMA (1,1) GARCH (1,1)-M model. In addition, the timevarying nature of conditional correlation is determined by using DCC-GARCH models. Further, study has also investigated the impact of Covid-19 on the relationship between COP and INDR. Findings of the study provide strong evidence of volatility spillover from crude oil prices to Automobile Assemblers, Oil & Gas, Power Generation & Distribution and Refinery but only scarce evidence is found regarding mean spillover. DCC-GARCH model reveals the time-varying nature of conditional correlation between crude oil prices and all other industries. Moreover, the results also provide some evidence about asymmetric behavior in correlation among crude oil prices to Cement and Refinery.
本文试图使用2008年6月至2021年1月期间的每日数据来检验巴基斯坦原油价格与工业回报之间的联系。采用ARMA (1,1) GARCH (1,1)-M模型对均值和波动率溢出进行检验。此外,利用DCC-GARCH模型确定了条件相关的时变性质。此外,研究还调查了Covid-19对COP与INDR关系的影响。研究结果有力地证明了原油价格波动对汽车装配企业、石油天然气企业、发电配电企业和炼油企业的溢出效应,但关于平均溢出效应的证据很少。DCC-GARCH模型揭示了原油价格与所有其他行业之间条件相关性的时变性质。此外,研究结果还提供了原油价格与水泥和炼油厂之间不对称相关行为的一些证据。
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引用次数: 0
IMPACT OF HUMAN CAPITAL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN D-8 COUNTRIES: GMM ESTIMATION OF PANEL DATA MODELS 人力资本对d-8国家经济增长的影响:面板数据模型的GMM估计
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.702
Muhammad Akbar, Muhammad Ali Gardezi, Zahid Iqbal
This study has been conducted to explore the role of health capital and education capital as compared to physical capital in economic growth of eight developing countries (D-8). The model is specified on the basis of Solow Growth extended model for economic growth. Data is covering twenty-one years from 1995 to 2015. GMM is used to estimate panel data models as causality test proves endogeneity problem in the specified model. This study provides empirical evidence that human capital (i.e. education capital and health capital) and physical capital positively affect economic growth of D-8 economies. However, human capital as compared to physical capital seems to be the engine of economic growth in these developing countries. Policy makers should consider investing in initiatives that improve human capital, such as providing better education opportunities, improving public health initiatives, and providing better access to healthcare. They should also seek to ensure that initiatives to increase physical capital, such as infrastructure and technological advancements, are implemented in a way that benefits communities with the greatest need. Additionally, policy makers should consider initiatives that incentivize businesses to invest in their employees, such as providing tax credits for businesses that invest in employee training and development. Finally, policy makers should make sure that any initiatives to increase human and physical capital are equitable and accessible to all citizens, regardless of their social, economic, or racial backgrounds.
本研究旨在探讨八个发展中国家的健康资本和教育资本与物质资本在经济增长中的作用(D-8)。该模型是在经济增长的索洛增长扩展模型的基础上建立的。数据涵盖了从1995年到2015年的21年。当因果检验证明面板数据模型存在内生性问题时,使用GMM对面板数据模型进行估计。本研究提供了实证证据,证明人力资本(即教育资本和卫生资本)和物质资本对D-8经济体的经济增长具有正向影响。然而,与物质资本相比,人力资本似乎是这些发展中国家经济增长的引擎。决策者应考虑投资于改善人力资本的举措,例如提供更好的教育机会、改进公共卫生举措以及提供更好的医疗保健服务。它们还应设法确保增加物质资本(如基础设施和技术进步)的举措以有利于最需要的社区的方式实施。此外,政策制定者应该考虑鼓励企业对员工进行投资的举措,例如为投资于员工培训和发展的企业提供税收抵免。最后,政策制定者应确保任何增加人力和物质资本的举措都是公平的,所有公民都可以获得,无论其社会、经济或种族背景如何。
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引用次数: 0
Export Competence of Cultural Goods: A Structural Gravity Analysis of the BRICS Trade 文化产品出口竞争力:金砖国家贸易的结构引力分析
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.708
Amjad Masood, S. H. Hashmi, Muhammad Imran Nazir, Basharat Khan
The BRICS economies contribute a substantial portion of global trade. However, the share of cultural export in their total exports has been declining over the past two decades. In this context, the current study examines cultural exports of BRICS compared to their aggregate exports using structural gravity model. For empirical estimation, we apply Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood High Dimensional Fixed Effects (PPMLHDFE) estimator for annual bilateral exports data. The results show that, as compared to non-cultural aggregate exports, exports of creative industries are more sensitive to geographical distance between countries. Nevertheless, positive effect of the similarity between trading partners in terms of language commonality, colonial relationship and shared border is more pronounced in case of cultural exports. Furthermore, we find that while the regional trade agreements promote exports in general, they remain inconsequential in case of cultural exports of BRICS. Additionally, the study uses cultural exports as a proxy for cultural proximity and finds that bilateral cultural exports facilitate the exports of non-cultural exports.
金砖国家经济在全球贸易中占很大比重。然而,在过去二十年中,文化出口在其总出口中的份额一直在下降。在此背景下,本研究使用结构引力模型将金砖国家的文化出口与总出口进行比较。对于经验估计,我们使用泊松伪极大似然高维固定效应(PPMLHDFE)估计器对年度双边出口数据进行估计。结果表明,与非文化出口总量相比,创意产业出口对国与国之间的地理距离更为敏感。然而,在文化出口方面,贸易伙伴之间在语言共性、殖民关系和共同边界方面的相似性的积极作用更为明显。此外,我们发现,虽然区域贸易协定总体上促进了出口,但对于金砖国家的文化出口而言,它们仍然是无关紧要的。此外,该研究使用文化出口作为文化接近度的代理,并发现双边文化出口促进了非文化出口的出口。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Theory of Planned Behaviour in Green Purchasing Behaviour – A Case of Millennial’s Consumption of Organic Food 绿色购买行为中的计划行为理论检验——以千禧一代有机食品消费为例
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.707
Bakhtiar Ali, Mehreen Fatima, Qazi Mohammed Ahmed
The study aimed to better understand how millennials' attitudes, buying intentions, and behavior related to green products with the help of the theory of planned behavior. The research also looked at the function of green purchase intentions (GPI), a subjective norm (SN), in mediating the affiliation between attitudes toward green products (AGP), perceived control behavior, and green purchasing behavior (GPB). The data was gathered from 256 millennials from Pakistan's twin cities using a well-structured questionnaire. The Smart PLS computer application was used to examine the data by means of the partial least squares (PLS) technique. Additionally, the results revealed that GPI had a notable impact on GPB. The interaction between AGP and GPB was mediated by GPI. Similarly, SN and GPB were also mediated by GPI. Promoting knowledge of the many factors influencing green purchase behavior, the study will assist policymakers and green marketers in formulating and putting into practice initiatives to stimulate green shopping.
本研究旨在借助计划行为理论,更好地了解千禧一代对绿色产品的态度、购买意图和行为。研究还考察了主观规范绿色购买意向(GPI)在绿色产品态度(AGP)、感知控制行为和绿色购买行为之间的中介作用。这些数据是从巴基斯坦双城的256名千禧一代中收集来的,他们使用了一份结构合理的问卷。使用智能PLS计算机应用程序,通过偏最小二乘(PLS)技术来检查数据。此外,研究结果表明,GPI对GPB有显著影响。GPI介导了AGP与GPB的相互作用。同样,SN和GPB也是由GPI介导的。本研究旨在促进对影响绿色购买行为的诸多因素的认识,协助政策制定者和绿色营销人员制定和实施促进绿色购物的措施。
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引用次数: 0
Pakistan's Economic Growth Restraints: The Three-Gap Model 巴基斯坦经济增长的制约:三缺口模型
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.704
Azra Khan, Saadia Safdar, Sadddam Hussain
Almost all the developing economies are confronted with three gaps which are termed as foreign exchange, savings-investment and fiscal gap. These gaps constrain the economic growth. Pakistan is also one of such developing economies and substantially facing three gaps in its economy. In order to observe the effect of these gaps on economic growth, we have used time series data ranging from 1980 to 2019. In the foreign exchange constrained growth findings show that an increase in investment opportunity, growth rate of potential GDP and a stable exchange rate will reduce the current account deficit there by increasing the growth rate of potential GDP. In the saving constrained growth findings show that an increase in tax revenue will increase the public savings reducing the saving-investment gap which will accelerate the potential GDP's growth rate. In the fiscal constrained growth finding show that public investment crowds in private investment, as private investment increases tax revenue will increase thereby reducing the fiscal gap. Higher tax revenue and public borrowing increase the growth rate of potential GDP.
几乎所有的发展中经济体都面临着外汇缺口、储蓄-投资缺口和财政缺口这三大缺口。这些差距制约了经济增长。巴基斯坦也是这样的发展中经济体之一,其经济实质上面临三大差距。为了观察这些差距对经济增长的影响,我们使用了1980年至2019年的时间序列数据。在外汇约束增长的研究结果表明,投资机会的增加,潜在GDP的增长率和稳定的汇率将通过提高潜在GDP的增长率来减少经常账户赤字。在储蓄约束增长的研究中,研究结果表明,税收的增加会增加公共储蓄,缩小储蓄与投资的差距,从而加快潜在GDP的增长率。在财政约束性增长研究中发现,公共投资挤占私人投资,随着私人投资的增加,税收收入也会增加,从而减少财政缺口。更高的税收收入和公共借贷提高了潜在GDP的增长率。
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引用次数: 0
Role of Leadership for Diversity Management and Organizational Performance: Moderation Model of Diversity and Functional Leadership Dimensions in Pakistan 领导对多样性管理和组织绩效的作用:巴基斯坦多样性和职能领导维度的调节模型
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.705
Muhammad Hanif, M. Athar, Zia Ur Rehman, Abaidullah Anwar, Muhammad Qasim Ali
Purpose: The most important objective of this study is to investigate the associations of diversity management practices (DMP) and organizational performance with moderating role of functional leadership dimensions in Pakistan. Methodology: DMPs have been assessed employing EPDMP scale and functional leadership dimensions were measured with scale developed by Santos et al., 2015 on a total sample size of 499 employees serving in HEI in Pakistan. The data was collected from employees of higher education sector institutions. The PLS-SEM technique was applied for effective data analysis.Findings: Results of the study reveal that greater diversity may not necessarily generate inclusive environment-certain diversity inclusive functional leadership dimensions and are essential to encourage diversity workplace environment where personnel think respected and valued. Results also indicate that diversity-inclusive functional leadership dimensions regulate the association among workforce diversity management and the organizational performance. Conclusions: The Study concluded that the diversity management has significant direct and positive impact on the organizational performance. Therefore, leaders who creates plans, ideas and make policies especially those who carried out a business and governments institutions need to formulate such HR statutes, regulations, rules, policies, and practices that promote heterogeneous personnel in organizations and bid equal opportunities to all personnel unrestricted by their individual employee’s characteristics such as race, gender, ethnicity, religion, etc, Practical implications: The results are very supportive for HR directors for the effective workforce diversity management to boost the organizational performance. Originality/value: The study describes the relationship of the diversity management and organizational performance with the moderating role of diversity inclusive functional leadership dimensions.
目的:本研究最重要的目的是探讨巴基斯坦多元化管理实践(DMP)与组织绩效之间的关系,以及职能领导维度的调节作用。方法:采用EPDMP量表对dmp进行评估,并使用Santos等人2015年开发的量表对巴基斯坦HEI服务的499名员工的总样本量进行功能领导维度的测量。这些数据是从高等教育机构的雇员中收集的。采用PLS-SEM技术进行有效的数据分析。研究发现:研究结果表明,更大的多样性不一定会产生包容性环境——一定的多样性包容性职能领导维度,对于鼓励员工认为受到尊重和重视的多元化工作环境至关重要。多元包容的职能领导维度对员工多元化管理与组织绩效之间的关系具有调节作用。结论:本研究得出多元化管理对组织绩效有显著的直接正向影响。因此,制定计划、想法和制定政策的领导者,特别是企业和政府机构的领导者,需要制定这样的人力资源法规、法规、规则、政策和实践,以促进组织中的异质人员,并为所有人员提供平等的机会,而不受个人员工的种族、性别、民族、宗教等特征的限制。研究结果对人力资源主管进行有效的员工多样性管理以提高组织绩效具有重要的指导意义。原创性/价值:本研究描述了多样性管理与组织绩效之间的关系,以及多样性包容性职能领导维度的调节作用。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of a Perceived Threat of Terrorism on Job Performance: A Moderated-Mediated Model 恐怖主义威胁感知对工作绩效的影响:一个有调节的中介模型
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.701
Adnan Riaz, Muhammad Saeed, Ra Mazhar Hameed, Ausima Sultan Malik, Malik Muhammad Afzal
This study explores the relationship between the threat of terrorism and the job performance of police employees. It also examines the potential mediating effect of jobrelated anxiety between the threat of terrorism to job performance relationship and the moderating effect of innovative work behaviour among Punjab Police personnel. Multisource (employee and respective supervisor), time-lagged data from 425 respondents, was collected, which shows that the threat of terrorism increases jobrelated anxiety of employees which in turn reduces job performance. Personnel's innovative work behaviour buffers the negative effect of perceived threats of terrorism on job-related anxiety, resultantly the relationship is mitigated for those who are innovative in their work behaviour and practices. In an external environment where terrorism presents a credible threat, organizations can, therefore, encourage employees to exercise innovative ways to enhance security provisions at different levels. The study results showed; a direct association between the perceived Threat of Terrorism (TOT) and Job-Related Anxiety (JRA). While an inverse relationship was emerged between Job-Related Anxiety and Job Performance (JP) and Innovative Work Behaviour (IWB) mitigated the positive relationship between the Perceived Threat of Terrorism and Job-Related Anxiety. Mediation role of Job-Related Anxiety between the perceived Threat of Terrorism and Job Performance was also explored. It shows that when employees feel a threat of terrorism, causes them to feel anxiety which curtails their performance of employees. However, innovative employees diffuse stress by coming up with novel solutions. Our study is limited due to the sample size. Other psychological reservoirs may also be incorporated in the same model to see the mitigating effect. However, managers may provide training interventions to help in developing innovative behaviour.
本研究探讨恐怖主义威胁与警察工作绩效之间的关系。它还考察了工作相关焦虑在旁遮普警察人员中恐怖主义威胁对工作绩效关系和创新工作行为的调节作用之间的潜在中介作用。多源(员工和各自的主管),收集了425名受访者的滞后数据,这表明恐怖主义的威胁增加了员工的工作相关焦虑,从而降低了工作绩效。人员的创新工作行为缓冲了恐怖主义威胁感知对工作相关焦虑的负面影响,因此,对于那些在工作行为和实践中具有创新精神的人来说,这种关系得到了缓解。因此,在恐怖主义构成可信威胁的外部环境中,组织可以鼓励员工采用创新的方式来加强不同层次的安全规定。研究结果表明:恐怖主义威胁感知(TOT)与工作相关焦虑(JRA)之间的直接联系。工作焦虑与工作绩效呈负相关关系,而创新工作行为(IWB)缓解了恐怖主义威胁感知与工作焦虑之间的正相关关系。本研究还探讨了工作焦虑在恐怖主义威胁感知与工作绩效之间的中介作用。这表明,当员工感受到恐怖主义的威胁时,会使他们感到焦虑,从而限制了员工的绩效。然而,创新的员工通过想出新颖的解决方案来缓解压力。由于样本量的限制,我们的研究是有限的。其他心理储层也可以纳入同一模型,以观察缓解效果。然而,管理人员可以提供培训干预措施,以帮助发展创新行为。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Effects of Expanding Tax Net to Agricultural Income in the Underdeveloped Economy 欠发达经济体扩大税网对农业收入的金融效应
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v8i1.703
Hasnain Naqvi, Ghulam Moeen Ud Din, Muhammad Azhar Khan, Nadeem Iqbal
The objective of this paper is to study the effects of the Agricultural Income Tax on Welfare of the Household as well as Income Inequality in Pakistan. The analysis is performed to examine the implementation of the tax in the country. The CGE model was used to analyze the various economic effects of the proposed tax on agriculture income. It also aims to analyze its benefits at the household and macro levels. The study was conducted to determine if the implementation of the tax on agricultural income would be feasible in Pakistan. The variables that were analyzed in this study included the implementation of the tax on income from agricultural sector`s households and the reducing the rates of sales tax. The results of the study revealed that the implementation of the tax on agricultural income would have beneficial effects on the country's economy-wide welfare indicators. The paper also noted that the implementation of the tax on agricultural income could help improve the country's household utility and economic indicators at the micro level.
本文的目的是研究农业所得税对巴基斯坦家庭福利和收入不平等的影响。进行分析是为了检查该国税收的实施情况。利用CGE模型分析了拟议税收对农业收入的各种经济影响。它还旨在分析其在家庭和宏观层面的好处。进行这项研究是为了确定对农业收入征税在巴基斯坦是否可行。本研究分析的变量包括对农业部门家庭收入征税的实施和销售税税率的降低。研究结果显示,实施农业收入税将对国家经济福利指标产生有利影响。该文件还指出,实施农业收入税可以帮助改善该国的家庭效用和微观经济指标。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Behaviour towards Social Media under COVID-19: A Multi-Study Evidence from Pakistan 2019冠状病毒病疫情下的消费者社交媒体行为:来自巴基斯坦的多项研究证据
Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v7i2.677
Q. Ahmed, Anees Wajid, Muhammad Arsalan Nazir, Tehsin Ahmad
The purpose of the study is to investigate the underlying mechanism between the relationship of consumers' beliefs (in terms of credibility, invasiveness, and infotainment), behavioral intentions [in terms of electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) and purchase intentions] and resilience towards negative information (RNI). We propose that these relationships are sequentially mediated by consumers' perceived social media advertising value (PSMAV) and their attitudes towards social media advertising (CATSMA). We report the results based on two studies. For study 1 (pre- COVID-19), we draw on survey evidence from 673 active users of social media (comprising of students & professionals) in Pakistan. For study 2 (post COVID-19), we draw on a usable sample of 263 respondents of similar demographics. Data are analyzed using variance-based structural equation modeling. Results of study 1 reveal that the relationships of infotainment and credibility with behavioral intentions are positive and partially mediated by the sequence of PSMAV and CATSMA. However, the relationship between invasiveness and behavioral intentions is negative and fully mediated by the sequence of PSMAV and CATSMA. For study 2, for both infotainment and credibility; PSMAV and CATSMA sequentially mediate the relationship between these belief constructs and RNI. For invasiveness, this sequential mediation remains ineffective. Consumer attitudes also show a positive linkage with RNI. This paper extends the extant literature by showing how (in a social media advertising context) consumers' beliefs relate to consumers' behavioral intentions and how positive attitudes formulate a higher RNI. Furthermore, we advance the literature by drawing on evidence from an under-researched context of Pakistan that has experienced dynamic changes during the pandemic era.
本研究的目的是探讨消费者信念(可信度、侵入性和信息娱乐性)、行为意向(电子口碑和购买意向)与负面信息弹性(RNI)之间关系的潜在机制。我们提出,这些关系是由消费者感知的社交媒体广告价值(PSMAV)和他们对社交媒体广告的态度(CATSMA)依次中介的。我们报告的结果基于两项研究。对于研究1 (COVID-19之前),我们利用了来自巴基斯坦673名社交媒体活跃用户(包括学生和专业人士)的调查证据。对于研究2 (COVID-19后),我们使用了263名具有相似人口统计特征的受访者的可用样本。数据分析采用基于方差的结构方程模型。研究1的结果表明,信息娱乐和可信度与行为意图之间存在正相关关系,并部分受PSMAV和CATSMA序列的调节。然而,侵袭性与行为意图之间的关系是负向的,并且完全由PSMAV和CATSMA序列介导。对于研究2,兼具娱乐性和可信性;PSMAV和CATSMA依次介导这些信念建构与RNI之间的关系。对于侵入性,这种顺序中介仍然是无效的。消费者态度也与RNI呈正相关。本文扩展了现有文献,展示了(在社交媒体广告背景下)消费者的信念如何与消费者的行为意图相关,以及积极的态度如何形成更高的RNI。此外,我们通过借鉴在大流行时期经历了动态变化的巴基斯坦的研究不足背景的证据来推进文献。
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引用次数: 0
The Moderating Impact of Firm Characteristics on Free Cash Flows and Financial Performance: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange 企业特征对自由现金流和财务绩效的调节作用:来自巴基斯坦证券交易所的证据
Pub Date : 2022-08-04 DOI: 10.33897/fujbe.v7i2.681
Aqsa Suleman, Shahzad Butt, Tehsin Ahmad
This study aims to discover effect of firm characteristics on the linkage of free cash flows and firm financial performance. Precisely, the current study has two main objectives: first, to setup the relationship between free cash flows and financial performance of non-financial firms; secondly, to investigate the moderating impact of firm characteristics of this relationship. The firm characteristics considered in this study are firm size and age. The study used secondary panel data which was obtained from 95 non-financial firms registered at PSX for the period of 2009-2019. Regression analysis was used in data evaluation. Results pointed out that free cash flows have substantial positive effect on financial performance, while firm' characteristics have a negative significant moderating effect on this relationship. The key academic input of the study is that free cash flows have a positive statistically significant effect on financial performance. The study suggests that firm managers, shareholders, and practitioners should focus more on the need for firms to generate more FCF.”
本研究旨在探讨企业特征对自由现金流与企业财务绩效联动的影响。确切地说,目前的研究有两个主要目标:第一,建立自由现金流量与非金融企业财务绩效之间的关系;其次,考察企业特征对这一关系的调节作用。本研究考虑的企业特征是企业规模和年龄。该研究使用了从2009年至2019年期间在PSX注册的95家非金融公司获得的二次面板数据。资料评价采用回归分析。结果表明,自由现金流对财务绩效有显著的正向影响,而企业特征对这一关系有显著的负向调节作用。本研究的关键学术输入是自由现金流量对财务绩效具有统计学上显著的正影响。研究表明,企业管理者、股东和从业者应该更多地关注企业产生更多FCF的需求。”
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Foundation University Journal of Business & Economics
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