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Convergence analysis of data augmentation algorithms for Bayesian robust multivariate linear regression with incomplete data 不完整数据下贝叶斯稳健多元线性回归数据增强算法的收敛性分析
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2024.105296
Haoxiang Li, Qian Qin, Galin L. Jones

Gaussian mixtures are commonly used for modeling heavy-tailed error distributions in robust linear regression. Combining the likelihood of a multivariate robust linear regression model with a standard improper prior distribution yields an analytically intractable posterior distribution that can be sampled using a data augmentation algorithm. When the response matrix has missing entries, there are unique challenges to the application and analysis of the convergence properties of the algorithm. Conditions for geometric ergodicity are provided when the incomplete data have a “monotone” structure. In the absence of a monotone structure, an intermediate imputation step is necessary for implementing the algorithm. In this case, we provide sufficient conditions for the algorithm to be Harris ergodic. Finally, we show that, when there is a monotone structure and intermediate imputation is unnecessary, intermediate imputation slows the convergence of the underlying Monte Carlo Markov chain, while post hoc imputation does not. An R package for the data augmentation algorithm is provided.

高斯混合物通常用于对稳健线性回归中的重尾误差分布建模。将多元稳健线性回归模型的似然与标准不恰当先验分布相结合,会产生一个难以分析的后验分布,可以使用数据增强算法进行采样。当响应矩阵有缺失项时,算法收敛特性的应用和分析就会面临独特的挑战。当不完整数据具有 "单调 "结构时,就会提供几何遍历性条件。在不存在单调结构的情况下,实施算法需要一个中间估算步骤。在这种情况下,我们提供了算法具有哈里斯遍历性的充分条件。最后,我们证明,当存在单调结构且中间估算不需要时,中间估算会减慢底层蒙特卡罗马尔科夫链的收敛速度,而事后估算则不会。我们还提供了一个用于数据增强算法的 R 软件包。
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引用次数: 0
On positive association of absolute-valued and squared multivariate Gaussians beyond MTP2 超越 MTP2 的绝对值和平方多元高斯的正相关性
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2024.105295
Helmut Finner , Markus Roters

We show that positively associated squared (and absolute-valued) multivariate normally distributed random vectors need not be multivariate totally positive of order 2 (MTP2) for p3. This result disproves Theorem 1 in Eisenbaum (2014, Ann. Probab.) and the conjecture that positive association of squared multivariate normals is equivalent to MTP2 and infinite divisibility of squared multivariate normals. Among others, we show that there exist absolute-valued multivariate normals which are conditionally increasing in sequence (CIS) (or weakly CIS (WCIS)) and hence positively associated but not MTP2. Moreover, we show that there exist absolute-valued multivariate normals which are positively associated but not CIS. As a by-product, we obtain necessary conditions for CIS and WCIS of absolute normals. We illustrate these conditions in some examples. With respect to implications and applications of our results, we show PA beyond MTP2 for some related multivariate distributions (chi-square, t, skew normal) and refer to possible conservative multiple test procedures and conservative simultaneous confidence bounds. Finally, we obtain the validity of the strong form of Gaussian product inequalities beyond MTP2.

我们证明,正相关的平方(和绝对值)多元正态分布随机向量不一定是 p≥3 的 2 阶多元全正(MTP2)。这一结果推翻了 Eisenbaum(2014,Ann. Prob.)中的定理 1,以及多元正态平方的正关联等同于 MTP2 和多元正态平方的无限可分性的猜想。其中,我们证明存在绝对值多元正则,它们在序列上是有条件递增的(CIS)(或弱 CIS(WCIS)),因此是正相关的,但不是 MTP2。此外,我们还证明存在绝对值多元正则,它们是正相关的,但不是 CIS。作为副产品,我们得到了绝对正则的 CIS 和 WCIS 的必要条件。我们用一些例子来说明这些条件。关于我们结果的意义和应用,我们展示了一些相关多元分布(秩方、t、偏斜正态)的 MTP2 以外的 PA,并提到了可能的保守多重检验程序和保守同时置信界。最后,我们得到了超越 MTP2 的强形式高斯积不等式的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of sparse covariance matrix via non-convex regularization 通过非凸正则化估计稀疏协方差矩阵
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2024.105294
Xin Wang , Lingchen Kong , Liqun Wang

Estimation of high-dimensional sparse covariance matrix is one of the fundamental and important problems in multivariate analysis and has a wide range of applications in many fields. This paper presents a novel method for sparse covariance matrix estimation via solving a non-convex regularization optimization problem. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and develop a multi-stage convex relaxation method to find an effective estimator. The multi-stage convex relaxation method guarantees any accumulation point of the sequence generated is a first-order stationary point of the non-convex optimization. Moreover, the error bounds of the first two stage estimators of the multi-stage convex relaxation method are derived under some regularity conditions. The numerical results show that our estimator outperforms the state-of-the-art estimators and has a high degree of sparsity on the premise of its effectiveness.

高维稀疏协方差矩阵估计是多元分析中的基础和重要问题之一,在许多领域都有广泛的应用。本文提出了一种通过求解非凸正则优化问题进行稀疏协方差矩阵估计的新方法。我们建立了所提估计器的渐近特性,并开发了一种多级凸松弛方法来找到有效的估计器。多阶段凸松弛法保证了所生成序列的任何累积点都是非凸优化的一阶静止点。此外,在一些规则性条件下,还推导出了多阶段凸松弛法前两阶段估计器的误差边界。数值结果表明,我们的估计器优于最先进的估计器,并且在有效的前提下具有高度的稀疏性。
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引用次数: 0
Hypothesis testing for mean vector and covariance matrix of multi-populations under a two-step monotone incomplete sample in large sample and dimension 大样本、大维度两步单调不完全抽样下多种群均值向量和协方差矩阵的假设检验
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105290
Shin-ichi Tsukada

In this study, we focus on the critical issue of analyzing data sets with missing data. Statistically processing such data sets, particularly those with general missing data, is challenging to express in explicit formulae, and often requires computational algorithms to solve. We specifically address monotone missing data, which are the simplest form of data sets with missing data. We conduct hypothesis tests to determine the equivalence of mean vectors and covariance matrices across different populations. Furthermore, we derive the properties of likelihood ratio test statistics in scenarios involving large samples and large dimensions.

在本研究中,我们将重点放在分析有缺失数据的数据集这一关键问题上。统计处理这类数据集,特别是那些带有一般缺失数据的数据集,很难用明确的公式表达,通常需要计算算法来解决。我们专门讨论单调缺失数据,这是缺失数据数据集的最简单形式。我们通过假设检验来确定不同人群的均值向量和协方差矩阵的等价性。此外,我们还推导了涉及大样本和高维度情况下的似然比检验统计特性。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of extreme multivariate expectiles with functional covariates 带有函数协变量的多变量极端期望值的估计
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105292
Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Cambyse Pakzad

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate, belonging to an infinite-dimensional space. By using the first order optimality condition, we interpret these expectiles as solutions of a multidimensional nonlinear optimum problem. Then the inference is based on a minimization algorithm of gradient descent type, coupled with consistent kernel estimations of our key statistical quantities such as conditional quantiles, conditional tail index and conditional tail dependence functions. The method is valid for equivalently heavy-tailed marginals and under a multivariate regular variation condition on the underlying unknown random vector with arbitrary dependence structure. Our main result establishes the consistency in probability of the optimum approximated solution vectors with a speed rate. This allows us to estimate the global computational cost of the whole procedure according to the data sample size. The finite-sample performance of our methodology is provided via a numerical illustration of simulated datasets.

本文致力于对极端水平的多元期望值进行半参数估计。所考虑的多元风险度量还包括与函数协变量相关的可能条件,属于无限维空间。通过使用一阶最优条件,我们将这些期望值解释为多维非线性最优问题的解。然后,根据梯度下降类型的最小化算法进行推理,并结合对关键统计量(如条件量值、条件尾指数和条件尾依赖函数)的一致内核估计。该方法对等效重尾边际有效,并且在具有任意依赖结构的底层未知随机向量的多变量正则变化条件下也有效。我们的主要结果确定了最优近似解向量的概率与速度的一致性。这样,我们就能根据数据样本的大小,估算出整个程序的全局计算成本。我们通过模拟数据集的数值说明,提供了我们方法的有限样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
An independence test for functional variables based on kernel normalized cross-covariance operator 基于核归一化交叉协方差算子的函数变量独立性检验
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105293
Terence Kevin Manfoumbi Djonguet, Guy Martial Nkiet

We propose an independence test for random variables valued into metric spaces by using a test statistic obtained from appropriately centering and rescaling the squared Hilbert–Schmidt norm of the usual empirical estimator of normalized cross-covariance operator. We then get asymptotic normality of this statistic under independence hypothesis, so leading to a new test for independence of functional random variables. A simulation study that allows to compare the proposed test to existing ones is provided.

我们利用对归一化交叉协方差算子的通常经验估计值的希尔伯特-施密特平方规范进行适当居中和重定标后得到的检验统计量,提出了一种对计量空间中随机变量进行估值的独立性检验方法。然后,我们得到了该统计量在独立性假设下的渐近正态性,从而得出了一种新的函数式随机变量独立性检验方法。我们还提供了一项模拟研究,可以将提出的检验与现有的检验进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
Shrinkage estimators of BLUE for time series regression models 时间序列回归模型 BLUE 的收缩估计器
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105282
Yujie Xue , Masanobu Taniguchi , Tong Liu

The least squares estimator (LSE) seems a natural estimator of linear regression models. Whereas, if the dimension of the vector of regression coefficients is greater than 1 and the residuals are dependent, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), which includes the information of the covariance matrix Γ of residual process has a better performance than LSE in the sense of mean square error. As we know the unbiased estimators are generally inadmissible, Senda and Taniguchi (2006) introduced a James–Stein type shrinkage estimator for the regression coefficients based on LSE, where the residual process is a Gaussian stationary process, and provides sufficient conditions such that the James–Stein type shrinkage estimator improves LSE. In this paper, we propose a shrinkage estimator based on BLUE. Sufficient conditions for this shrinkage estimator to improve BLUE are also given. Furthermore, since Γ is infeasible, assuming that Γ has a form of Γ=Γ(θ), we introduce a feasible version of that shrinkage estimator with replacing Γ(θ) by Γ(θˆ) which is introduced in Toyooka (1986). Additionally, we give the sufficient conditions where the feasible version improves BLUE. Besides, the results of a numerical studies confirm our approach.

最小二乘估计器(LSE)似乎是线性回归模型的天然估计器。然而,如果回归系数向量的维度大于 1 且残差具有依赖性,则包含残差过程协方差矩阵 Γ 信息的最佳线性无偏估计器(BLUE)在均方误差意义上比 LSE 具有更好的性能。我们知道无偏估计器一般是不允许的,因此 Senda 和 Taniguchi(2006 年)提出了基于 LSE 的回归系数 James-Stein 型收缩估计器,其中残差过程是高斯静止过程,并提供了 James-Stein 型收缩估计器改进 LSE 的充分条件。本文提出了一种基于 BLUE 的收缩估计器。本文还给出了该收缩估计器改善 BLUE 的充分条件。此外,由于 Γ 是不可行的,假设 Γ 的形式为 Γ=Γ(θ),我们引入了该收缩估计器的可行版本,将 Γ(θ) 替换为 Toyooka (1986) 中引入的 Γ(θˆ)。此外,我们还给出了可行版本改进 BLUE 的充分条件。此外,数值研究的结果也证实了我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic normality of the local linear estimator of the functional expectile regression 泛函期望回归局部线性估计量的渐近正态性
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105281
Ouahiba Litimein , Ali Laksaci , Larbi Ait-Hennani , Boubaker Mechab , Mustapha Rachdi

We are concerned with the nonparametric estimation of the expectile functional regression. More precisely, we build an estimator, by the local linear smoothing approach, of the conditional expectile. Then we establish the asymptotic distribution of the constructed estimator. Establishing this result requires the Bahadur representation of the conditional expectile. The latter is obtained under certain standard conditions which cover the functional aspect of the data as well as the nonparametric characteristic of the model. The real impact of this result in nonparametric functional statistics has been discussed and highlighted using artificial data.

我们关注期望函数回归的非参数估计。更精确地说,我们用局部线性平滑方法建立了一个条件期望的估计量。然后建立了构造的估计量的渐近分布。建立这个结果需要条件谓词的Bahadur表示。后者是在一定的标准条件下获得的,这些标准条件涵盖了数据的功能方面以及模型的非参数特性。这一结果在非参数函数统计中的实际影响已经用人工数据进行了讨论和强调。
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引用次数: 0
Preface to the Special Issue “Copula modeling from Abe Sklar to the present day” 题为“从Abe Sklar到现在的Copula建模”的特刊序言
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105280
Christian Genest , Ostap Okhrin , Taras Bodnar
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引用次数: 0
A proper scoring rule for minimum information bivariate copulas 最小信息联结的适当评分规则
IF 1.6 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2023.105271
Yici Chen, Tomonari Sei

Two-dimensional distributions whose marginal distributions are uniform are called bivariate copulas. Among them, the one that satisfies given constraints on expectation and is closest to being an independent distribution in the sense of Kullback–Leibler divergence is called the minimum information bivariate copula. The density function of the minimum information copula contains a set of functions called the normalizing functions, which are often difficult to compute. Although a number of proper scoring rules for probability distributions having normalizing constants such as exponential families have been proposed, these scores are not applicable to the minimum information copulas due to the normalizing functions. In this paper, we propose the conditional Kullback–Leibler score, which avoids computation of the normalizing functions. The main idea of its construction is to use pairs of observations. We show that the proposed score is strictly proper in the space of copula density functions and therefore the estimator derived from it has asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, the score is convex with respect to the parameters and can be easily optimized by the gradient methods.

边际分布均匀的多维分布称为连线图。其中满足给定期望约束且在Kullback-Leibler散度意义上最接近独立分布的称为最小信息联结。最小信息联结的密度函数包含一组称为归一化函数的函数,这些函数通常难以计算。虽然对具有指数族等归一化常数的概率分布提出了一些适当的评分规则,但由于归一化函数的原因,这些评分不适用于最小信息联。本文提出了条件Kullback-Leibler分数,避免了归一化函数的计算。其构建的主要思想是使用成对的观测。我们证明了所提出的分数在联结密度函数空间中是严格适当的,因此由此得到的估计量具有渐近相合性。此外,分数相对于参数是凸的,可以很容易地通过梯度方法进行优化。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Multivariate Analysis
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