Background: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is among the most prevalent bacterial infections globally, particularly impacting elderly populations in emergency departments (EDs). This study aimed to develop and validate an ED-specific risk score predicting in-hospital mortality for elderly patients with UTI.
Methods: Using data from the MIMIC-IV-ED database, we enrolled patients aged 65 or older with confirmed UTI admitted to wards or ICUs. Variables were selected through stepwise logistic regression using Bayesian Information Criterion in the derivation cohort (70 %), and dichotomized by optimal cut-offs identified by Youden's index. A point-based scoring system was developed from regression coefficients. Internal validation was performed on a separate validation cohort (30 %) assessing discrimination (AUC), calibration, and clinical utility using decision curve analysis.
Results: Among 2391 patients, 160 (6.7 %) experienced in-hospital mortality. The EARL-UTI score included five variables: age >83 years, Emergency Severity Index <2, red cell distribution width >15.7 %, albumin <2.9 g/dL, and lactate >2.4 mmol L-1. Scores ≥4 predicted a mortality rate of 29.9 % compared to 4.5 % in lower-scoring groups, with sensitivity and specificity of 59.6 % and 93.1 %, respectively, and a negative predictive value of 95.5 %. Validation cohort performance remained consistent (AUC 0.73), and the model outperformed established risk scores.
Conclusions: The EARL-UTI score provides an easily implemented bedside tool for rapid identification of elderly ED patients at high risk for in-hospital mortality, potentially guiding early intervention and resource allocation decisions. Future prospective multicenter studies are necessary to confirm its clinical impact and generalizability.
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