Journal of The Royal Society Interface最新文献

We demonstrate that heterogeneity in the perceived risks associated with infection within host populations amplifies chances of superspreading during the crucial early stages of epidemics. Under this behavioural model, individuals less concerned about dangers from infection are more likely to be infected and attend larger sized (riskier) events, where we assume event sizes remain unchanged. For directly transmitted diseases such as COVID-19, this leads to infections being introduced at rates above the population prevalence to those events most conducive to superspreading. We develop an interpretable, computational framework for evaluating within-event risks and derive a small-scale reproduction number measuring how the infections generated at an event depend on transmission heterogeneities and numbers of introductions. This generalizes previous frameworks and quantifies how event-scale patterns and population-level characteristics relate. As event duration and size grow, our reproduction number converges to the basic reproduction number. We illustrate that even moderate levels of heterogeneity in the perceived risks of infection substantially increase the likelihood of disproportionately large clusters of infections occurring at larger events, despite fixed overall disease prevalence. We show why collecting data linking host behaviour and event attendance is essential for accurately assessing the risks posed by invading pathogens in emerging stages of outbreaks.

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R ₀) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R ₀ ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25-93% and 65-85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

Natural disasters bring indelible negative impacts to human beings, and people usually adopt some post hoc strategies to alleviate such impacts. However, the same strategies may have different effects in different countries (or regions), which is rarely paid attention by the academic community. In the context of COVID-19, we examine the effect of distance restriction policies (DRP) on reducing human mobility and thus inhibiting the spread of the virus. By establishing a multi-period difference-in-differences model to analyse the unique panel dataset constructed by 44 countries, we show that DRP does significantly reduce mobility, but the effectiveness varies from country to country. We built a moderating effect model to explain the differences from the cultural perspective and found that DRP can be more effective in reducing human mobility in countries with a lower indulgence index. The results remain robust when different sensitivity analyses are performed. Our conclusions call for governments to adapt their policies to the impact of disasters rather than copy each other.

The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.

Mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology must be consistent with observed data in order to generate reliable knowledge and evidence-based policy. Metapopulation systems, which consist of a network of connected sub-populations, pose technical challenges in statistical inference owing to nonlinear, stochastic interactions. Numerical difficulties encountered in conducting inference can obstruct the core scientific questions concerning the link between the mathematical models and the data. Recently, an algorithm has been proposed that enables computationally tractable likelihood-based inference for high-dimensional partially observed stochastic dynamic models of metapopulation systems. We use this algorithm to build a statistically principled data analysis workflow for metapopulation systems. Via a case study of COVID-19, we show how this workflow addresses the limitations of previous approaches. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a situation where mathematical models and their policy implications are widely visible, and we revisit an influential metapopulation model used to inform basic epidemiological understanding early in the pandemic. Our methods support self-critical data analysis, enabling us to identify and address model weaknesses, leading to a new model with substantially improved statistical fit and parameter identifiability. Our results suggest that the lockdown initiated on 23 January 2020 in China was more effective than previously thought.

Cancer incidence increases rapidly with age, typically as a polynomial. The somatic mutation theory explains this increase through the waiting time for enough mutations to build up to generate cells with the full set of traits needed to grow without control. However, lines of evidence ranging from tumour reversion and dormancy to the prevalence of presumed cancer mutations in non-cancerous tissues argue that this is not the whole story, and that cancer is also an ecological process, and that mutations only lead to cancer when the systems of control within and across cells have broken down. Aging thus has two effects: the build-up of mutations and the breakdown of control. This paper presents a mathematical modelling framework to unify these theories with novel approaches to model the mutation and diversification of cell lineages and of the breakdown of the layers of control both within and between cells. These models correctly predict the polynomial increase of cancer with age, show how germline defects in control accelerate cancer initiation, and compute how the positive feedback between cell replication, ecology and layers of control leads to a doubly exponential growth of cell populations.

Central place foragers, such as many ants, exploit the environment around their nest. The extent of their foraging range is a function of individual movement, but how the movement patterns of large numbers of foragers result in an emergent colony foraging range remains unclear. Here, we introduce a random walk model with stochastic resetting to depict the movements of searching ants. Stochastic resetting refers to spatially resetting at random times the position of agents to a given location, here the nest of searching ants. We investigate the effect of a range of resetting mechanisms and compare the macroscopic predictions of our model to laboratory and field data. We find that all returning mechanisms very robustly ensure that scouts exploring the surroundings of a nest will be exponentially distributed with distance from the nest. We also find that a decreasing probability for searching ants to return to their nest is compatible with empirical data, resulting in scouts going further away from the nest as the number of foraging trips increases. Our findings highlight the importance of resetting random walk models for depicting the movements of central place foragers and nurture novel questions regarding the searching behaviour of ants.

Navigation of male moths towards females during the mating search offers a unique perspective on the exploration-exploitation (EE) model in decision-making. This study uses the EE model to explain male moth pheromone-driven flight paths. Wind tunnel measurements and three-dimensional tracking using infrared cameras have been leveraged to gain insights into male moth behaviour. During the experiments in the wind tunnel, disturbance to the airflow has been added and the effect of increased fluctuations on moth flights has been analysed, in the context of the proposed EE model. The exploration and exploitation phases are separated using a genetic algorithm to the experimentally obtained dataset of moth three-dimensional trajectories. First, the exploration-to-exploitation rate (EER) increases with distance from the source of the female pheromone is demonstrated, which can be explained in the context of the EE model. Furthermore, our findings reveal a compelling relationship between EER and increased flow fluctuations near the pheromone source. Using an olfactory navigation simulation and our moth-inspired navigation model, the phenomenon where male moths exhibit an enhanced EER as turbulence levels increase is explained. This research extends our understanding of optimal navigation strategies based on general biological EE models and supports the development of bioinspired navigation algorithms.

Animals, most notably insects, generally seem to accumulate electrostatic charge in nature. These electrostatic charges will exert forces on other charges in these animals' environments and therefore have the potential to attract or repel other objects, for example, pollen from flowers. Here, we show that butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) accumulate electrostatic charge while in flight. Then, using finite element analysis, we demonstrate that when within millimetres of a flower, the electrostatic charge of a lepidopteran generates an electric field in excess of 5 kV m^-1, and that an electric field of this magnitude is sufficient to elicit contactless pollen transfer from flowers across air gaps onto the body of a butterfly or moth. Furthermore, we see that phylogenetic variations exist in the magnitude and polarity of net charge between different species and families and Lepidoptera. These phylogenetic variations in electrostatic charging correlate with morphological, biogeographical and ecological differences between different clades. Such correlations with biogeographical and ecological differences may reflect evolutionary adaptations towards maximizing or minimizing charge accumulation, in relation to pollination, predation and parasitism, and thus we introduce the idea that electrostatic charging may be a trait upon which evolution can act.