Journal of The Royal Society Interface最新文献

During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the instantaneous reproduction number, R(t), has surged as a widely used measure to target public health interventions aiming at curbing the infection rate. In analogy with the basic reproduction number that arises from the linear stability analysis, R(t) is typically interpreted as a threshold parameter that separates exponential growth (R(t) > 1) from exponential decay (R(t) < 1). In real epidemics, however, the finite number of susceptibles, the stratification of the population (e.g. by age or vaccination state), and heterogeneous mixing lead to more complex epidemic courses. In the context of the multidimensional renewal equation, we generalize the scalar R(t) to a reproduction matrix, [Formula: see text], which details the epidemic state of the stratified population, and offers a concise epidemic forecasting scheme. First, the reproduction matrix is computed from the available incidence data (subject to some a priori assumptions), then it is projected into the future by a transfer functional to predict the epidemic course. We demonstrate that this simple scheme allows realistic and accurate epidemic trajectories both in synthetic test cases and with reported incidence data from the COVID-19 pandemic. Accounting for the full heterogeneity and nonlinearity of the infection process, the reproduction matrix improves the prediction of the infection peak. In contrast, the scalar reproduction number overestimates the possibility of sustaining the initial infection rate and leads to an overshoot in the incidence peak. Besides its simplicity, the devised forecasting scheme offers rich flexibility to be generalized to time-dependent mitigation measures, contact rate, infectivity and vaccine protection.

Monitoring disease progression often involves tracking biomarker measurements over time. Joint models (JMs) for longitudinal and survival data provide a framework to explore the relationship between time-varying biomarkers and patients' event outcomes, offering the potential for personalized survival predictions. In this article, we introduce the linear state space dynamic survival model for handling longitudinal and survival data. This model enhances the traditional linear Gaussian state space model by including survival data. It differs from the conventional JMs by offering an alternative interpretation via differential or difference equations, eliminating the need for creating a design matrix. To showcase the model's effectiveness, we conduct a simulation case study, emphasizing its performance under conditions of limited observed measurements. We also apply the proposed model to a dataset of pulmonary arterial hypertension patients, demonstrating its potential for enhanced survival predictions when compared with conventional risk scores.

Birds, bats and insects have evolved unique wing structures to achieve a wide range of flight capabilities. Insects have relatively stiff and passive wings, birds have a complex and hierarchical feathered structure and bats have an articulated skeletal system integrated with a highly stretchable skin. The compliant skin of the wing distinguishes bats from all other flying animals and contributes to bats' remarkable, highly manoeuvrable flight performance and high energetic efficiency. The structural and functional complexity of the bat wing skin is one of the least understood although important elements of the bat flight anatomy. The wing skin has two unusual features: a discrete array of very soft elastin fibres and a discrete array of skeletal muscle fibres. The latter is intriguing because skeletal muscle is typically attached to bone, so the arrangement of intramembranous muscle in soft skin raises questions about its role in flight. In this paper, we develop a multi-scale chemo-mechanical constitutive model for bat wing skin. The chemo-mechanical model links cross-bridge cycling to a structure-based continuum model that describes the active viscoelastic behaviour of the soft anisotropic skin tissue. Continuum models at the tissue length-scale are valuable as they are easily implemented in commercial finite element codes to solve problems involving complex geometries, loading and boundary conditions. The constitutive model presented in this paper will be used in detailed finite element simulations to improve our understanding of the mechanics of bat flight in the context of wing kinematics and aerodynamic performance.

Natural swimmers and flyers can fully recover from catastrophic propulsor damage by altering stroke mechanics: some fish can lose even 76% of their propulsive surface without loss of thrust. We consider applying these principles to enable robotic flapping propulsors to autonomously repair functionality. However, direct transference of these alterations from an organism to a robotic flapping propulsor may be suboptimal owing to irrelevant evolutionary pressures. Instead, we use machine learning techniques to compare these alterations with those optimal for a robotic system. We implement an online artificial evolution with hardware-in-the-loop, performing experimental evaluations with a flexible plate. To recoup thrust, the learned strategy increased amplitude, frequency and angle of attack (AOA) amplitude, and phase-shifted AOA by approximately 110°. Only amplitude increase is reported by most fish literature. When recovering side force, we find that force direction is correlated with AOA. No clear amplitude or frequency trend is found, whereas frequency increases in most insect literature. These results suggest that how mechanical flapping propulsors most efficiently adjust to damage may not align with natural swimmers and flyers.

Insect wings are flexible structures that exhibit deformations of complex spatiotemporal patterns. Existing studies on wing deformation underscore the indispensable role of wing deformation in enhancing aerodynamic performance. Here, we investigated forward flight in bluebottle flies, flying semi-freely in a magnetic flight mill; we quantified wing surface deformation using high-speed videography and marker-less surface reconstruction and studied the effects on aerodynamic forces, power and efficiency using computational fluid dynamics. The results showed that flies' wings exhibited substantial camber near the wing root and twisted along the wingspan, as they were coupled effects of deflection primarily about the claval flexion line. Such deflection was more substantial for supination during the upstroke when most thrust was produced. Compared with deformed wings, the undeformed wings generated 59-98% of thrust and 54-87% of thrust efficiency (i.e. ratio of thrust and power). Wing twist moved the aerodynamic centre of pressure proximally and posteriorly, likely improving aerodynamic efficiency.

Biological systems such as axonal growth cones perform chemotaxis at micrometre-level length scales, where chemotactic molecules are sparse. Such systems lie outside the range of validity of existing models, which assume smoothly varying chemical gradients. We investigate the effect of introducing discrete chemoattractant molecules by constructing a minimal dynamical model consisting of a chemotactic cell without internal memory. Significant differences are found in the behaviour of the cell as the chemical gradient is changed from smoothly varying to discrete, including the emergence of a homing radius beyond which chemotaxis is not reliably performed.

Spider webs that serve as snares are one of the most fascinating and abundant type of animal architectures. In many cases they include an adhesive coating of silk lines-so-called viscid silk-for prey capture. The evolutionary switch from silk secretions forming solid fibres to soft aqueous adhesives remains an open question in the understanding of spider silk evolution. Here we functionally and chemically characterized the secretions of two types of silk glands and their behavioural use in the cellar spider, Pholcus phalangioides. Both being derived from the same ancestral gland type that produces fibres with a solidifying glue coat, the two types produce respectively a quickly solidifying glue applied in thread anchorages and prey wraps, or a permanently tacky glue deployed in snares. We found that the latter is characterized by a high concentration of organic salts and reduced spidroin content, showing up a possible pathway for the evolution of viscid properties by hygroscopic-salt-mediated hydration of solidifying adhesives. Understanding the underlying molecular basis for such radical switches in material properties not only helps to better understand the evolutionary origins and versatility of ecologically impactful spider web architectures, but also informs the bioengineering of spider silk-based products with tailored properties.

This study introduces novel physics-based scaling laws to estimate the propulsive performance of synchronously pitching foils in various schooling configurations. These relations are derived from quasi-steady lift-based and added mass forces. Hydrodynamic interactions among the schooling foils are considered through vortex-induced velocities imposed on them, constituting the ground effect. Generalized scaling equations are formulated for cycle-averaged coefficients of thrust and power. These equations encompass both the pure-pitching and induced velocity terms, capturing their combined effects. The equations are compared to computational results obtained from two-foil systems, exhibiting foil arrangements over a wide range of parameter space, including Strouhal number (0.15 ≤ St ≤ 0.4), pitching amplitude ([Formula: see text]) and phase difference ([Formula: see text]) at Re = 1000-10 000. The individual contributions of pure-pitching and induced velocity terms to propulsive performance elucidate that solely relying on the pure-pitching terms leads to inadequate estimation, emphasizing the significance of the induced velocity terms. The validity of the approach is further assessed by testing it with three-foil and five-foil configurations, which displays a collapse of estimated and measured results. This indicates that the scaling laws are applicable to multi-foil arrangements.

Wrinkling instabilities of thin elastic sheets can be used to generate periodic structures over a wide range of length scales. Viscosity of the thin elastic sheet or its surrounding medium has been shown to be responsible for dynamic processes. We here consider wrinkling of fluid deformable surfaces. In contrast with thin elastic sheets, with in-plane and out-of-plane elasticity, these surfaces are characterized by in-plane viscous flow and out-of-plane elasticity and have been established as model systems for biomembranes and cellular sheets. We use this hydrodynamic theory and numerically explore the formation of wrinkles and their coarsening, either by a continuous reduction of the enclosed volume or by the continuous increase of the surface area. Both lead to almost identical results for wrinkle formation and the coarsening process, for which a scaling law for the wavenumber is obtained for a broad range of surface viscosity and rate of change of volume or area. However, for large Reynolds numbers and small changes in volume or area, wrinkling can be suppressed and surface hydrodynamics allows for global shape changes following the minimal energy configurations of the Helfrich energy for corresponding reduced volumes.

Odour plumes in turbulent environments are intermittent and sparse. Laboratory-scaled experiments suggest that information about the source distance may be encoded in odour signal statistics, yet it is unclear whether useful and continuous distance estimates can be made under real-world flow conditions. Here, we analyse odour signals from outdoor experiments with a sensor moving across large spatial scales in desert and forest environments to show that odour signal statistics can yield useful estimates of distance. We show that achieving accurate estimates of distance requires integrating statistics from 5 to 10 s, with a high temporal encoding of the olfactory signal of at least 20 Hz. By combining distance estimates from a linear model with wind-relative motion dynamics, we achieved source distance estimates in a 60 × 60 m² search area with median errors of 3-8 m, a distance at which point odour sources are often within visual range for animals such as mosquitoes.