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STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY RIVER FLOWS BY SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS 基于自组织图的月度河流流量随机模拟
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N2.219230
J. A. S. Filho, C. Farias
Extreme hydrological conditions and increasing water demands observed in semiarid Brazil have generated conflicts regarding to the best use of existing water resources. Synthetic generation models of river flows are often used as support for the definition of water system operating rules, which allow the establishment of rationing policies before water scarcity spells. This work aims at verifying the applicability of models based on self-organizing maps (SOM) for stochastic modeling of monthly river flows. The basic principle of the study consisted of using SOM models in order to define the deterministic component of river flow series and a density probability function (stochastic component) to represent the resulting residuals. During calibration of all networks, values of NASH were above 0.9989 for the applications. The results were promising, indicating that the established models are capable of producing synthetic series of inflows with excellent performance.
在半干旱的巴西观察到的极端水文条件和不断增加的用水需求已经在最佳利用现有水资源方面产生了冲突。河流流量的综合生成模型经常被用来支持水系统运行规则的定义,从而允许在缺水发生之前建立配给政策。本研究旨在验证基于自组织图(SOM)的模型在月度河流流量随机建模中的适用性。该研究的基本原理是使用SOM模型来定义河流流量序列的确定性成分,并使用密度概率函数(随机成分)来表示所得残差。在所有网络的校准过程中,应用程序的NASH值都在0.9989以上。结果表明,所建立的模型能够生产出性能优良的综合流系。
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引用次数: 1
MODELING SPATIAL DYNAMICS APPLIED TO THE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF PIPELINES IN RIO DE JANEIRO 空间动力学建模应用于评估巴西里约热内卢管道附近的城市增长
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N2.277286
Marcelo Elias Delaneze, P. S. Riedel
The use of mathematical models in environmental studies allows significant scientific contributions to the physical planning of an area, since they help to understand the impact of changes in land cover and predict future trends of changes in ecosystems. The study area includes portions of the municipalities of Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguaçu, and Belford Roxo, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and aims to carry out experiments in land cover changes in the medium-term (10 years) within the catchment area of ORBEL pipelines. The modeling performed in this study was developed using the software Dinamica EGO. For model calibration, we used the weights of evidence method. Positive values foster certain transitions, while negative values indicate low probability of transition. Model validation was executed by means of the fuzzy similarity method using exponential decay. The results show that for the study period (1998-2010) the rate of change for the transition of the class 'others to woody vegetation' is much higher than for the other class transitions observed in the same periods. One annual land cover scenario was generated for the year 2020. The scenario indicated the growth of suburbs near the ring road around Rio de Janeiro, especially in the municipality of Duque de Caxias.
在环境研究中使用数学模型可以对一个地区的实际规划作出重大的科学贡献,因为它们有助于了解土地覆盖变化的影响和预测生态系统变化的未来趋势。研究区域包括位于巴西里约热内卢州的Duque de Caxias、Nova igua和Belford Roxo市的部分地区,旨在对ORBEL管道集水区的中期(10年)土地覆盖变化进行实验。在本研究中进行的建模是使用软件Dinamica EGO开发的。对于模型的标定,我们采用证据权法。正值会促进一定的转变,负值则表示转变的可能性较低。采用指数衰减模糊相似法对模型进行验证。结果表明:在1998—2010年研究期内,“其他植被向木本植被”类的转变速率远高于同期观测到的其他植被类的转变速率。为2020年制定了一个年度土地覆盖情景。这一情景表明,里约热内卢环城公路附近的郊区正在增长,特别是在杜克德卡夏亚斯市。
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引用次数: 0
WATER MANAGEMENT AND URBAN FLOOD MITIGATION: STUDIES AND PROPOSALS FOR THE MACAÉ RIVER BASIN IN BRAZIL 水管理和城市洪水缓解:巴西macaÉ河流域的研究和建议
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N2.188200
L. Tavares, J. Lugon Junior, J. Silva, J. Wasserman, P. Rodrigues
This article presents a literature review about urban floods, with a specific analysis concerning the Macaé River basin in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main topics of the study are: (i) legal framework of water resources management; (ii) overview of urban floods in Brazil, focusing on the city of Macaé; (iii) methods of control and mitigation of urban floods; (iv) hydrological and computational modeling applied to the study of floods; and finally, (v) characterization of the Macaé River basin, with an emphasis in the context of floods and inundations. The research confirms the relevance of flood studies for the region, both by the expressive record of flooding events and by the lack of recent investigations about this issue. According to the current trend practiced in flood management, proposals for the city should be based on integrated interventions that consider the peculiarities of the basin. Compensatory techniques and the renaturalization of rivers and streams are two prominent approaches to this context. The modeling of the basin and the simulation of these measures can provide data that will support the basin management plan and the work of other relevant public institutions.
本文对城市洪水进行了文献综述,并对巴西巴西里约热内卢的macacore河流域进行了具体分析。本研究的主要议题是:(i)水资源管理的法律框架;(ii)巴西城市洪水概况,以澳门为重点;(三)控制和减轻城市洪水的方法;(iv)用于洪水研究的水文和计算模型;最后,(v)澳门河流域的特征,重点是在洪水和淹没的背景下。该研究证实了洪水研究与该地区的相关性,这既体现在洪水事件的记录上,也体现在对这一问题缺乏最近的调查。根据目前洪水管理实践的趋势,城市建议应该基于综合干预措施,考虑盆地的特殊性。补偿技术和河流和溪流的自然恢复是这一背景下的两个突出方法。流域的建模和这些措施的模拟可以为流域管理计划和其他相关公共机构的工作提供数据支持。
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引用次数: 3
SIMULATION OF SURFACE WATER POLLUTION IN A WATERSHED SUBJECT TO PROGRESSIVE URBANIZATION 城市化进程中流域地表水污染模拟
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/juee.2018.v12n2.293307
J. E. A. Filho, M. R. Salla, C. Martins, Guilherme Hanauer de Lima
The large alterations in land use and occupation associated with progressive urbanization tend to increase the direct and indirect impacts on the water quality of streams and rivers. Relying on various land occupation scenarios in a watershed subject to progressive urbanization, considering a horizon of 30 years, this study estimated the pollutant loads of all its sub-basins, simulated the dispersion of pollutants along its main watercourse and estimated the pollutant loads at the basin’s outlet. The method used to estimate the pollutant loads was adapted from that proposed by Schueler (1987), with inclusion of the Soil Conservation Service method (SCS, 1973) to estimate the surface runoff or excess rainfall. The dispersion of pollutants in the principal stream was simulated by numerically solving the advection-diffusion equation, after discretization by finite differences, employing a computational code implemented in the Visual Basic language. The ranking of the pollutants in decreasing order of gross annual loads for the 30-year scenario showed the highest production of suspended sediments (510 to 4,882 metric tons/year), followed by BOD with 42 to 172 tons/year and nutrients (13 to 62 tons/year for total nitrogen and 6 to 29 tons/year for nitrite and nitrate). Zinc accounted for the smallest discharge, with 1.7 to 7.9 tons/year. In turn, in the ranking by the correlation coefficient between the loads of each pollutant and the advance of urban occupation, represented indirectly by the number curve (NC) parameter, BOD was most sensitive to urban expansion, since it had the strongest correlation with the number curve (about 41%). Total suspended solids (TSS) and zinc were less influenced by the occupation processes of the watershed, although they were closely correlated with rainfall. In general, the method used in this study can help planners make decisions about urbanization guidelines and zoning rules. The results indicate the importance of establishing policies for moderate occupation of watersheds and reduction of the diffuse pollution caused by urbanization.
随着城市化进程的推进,土地使用和占用的巨大变化往往会增加对溪流和河流水质的直接和间接影响。本文以某渐进式城市化流域为研究对象,以30年为尺度,估算了流域各子流域的污染物负荷,模拟了流域主要水道上污染物的扩散,估算了流域出水口的污染物负荷。用于估计污染物负荷的方法改编自Schueler(1987)提出的方法,并纳入了土壤保持服务方法(SCS, 1973)来估计地表径流或过量降雨。利用Visual Basic语言编写的计算程序,通过有限差分离散后的平流-扩散方程的数值求解,模拟了主流中污染物的扩散。在30年的情景中,污染物的年总负荷递减顺序显示,悬浮沉积物的产量最高(510 ~ 4882公吨/年),其次是BOD(42 ~ 172公吨/年)和营养物质(总氮13 ~ 62公吨/年,亚硝酸盐和硝酸盐6 ~ 29公吨/年)。锌的排放量最小,为1.7 ~ 7.9吨/年。反过来,在以数量曲线(NC)参数间接表示的各污染物负荷与城市占领推进的相关系数排序中,BOD对城市扩张最为敏感,与数量曲线的相关性最强(约41%)。总悬浮物(TSS)和锌受流域占用过程的影响较小,但与降雨密切相关。总的来说,本研究中使用的方法可以帮助规划者制定城市化指导方针和分区规则。研究结果表明,制定适度占用流域和减少城市化造成的弥漫性污染的政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
DIGITAL TERRAIN MODELING USING FINITE ELEMENT METHODS MESHLESS 基于有限元无网格方法的数字地形建模
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N2.163-171
F. A. Silva, Gustavo R. Scandolieri, D. R. Pereira, Helton M. Sapia João F. C. Silva Leandro L. Almeida
Digital Terrain Modeling (DTM) is a computational model of the earth surface that represents relief and it has a wide range of applications. This work proposes a new approach to DTM using the Finite Element Method (FEM) point-based instead of mesh-based. The points used by the proposed methodology were obtained by data captured by satellite images. The most methods require the precomputation of a mesh on the surface of the terrain. Our methodology overcomes the mesh step, so the modeling process is very fast.
数字地形建模(DTM)是一种代表地形的地表计算模型,具有广泛的应用。这项工作提出了一种新的DTM方法,使用基于点的有限元方法(FEM)代替基于网格的方法。所提出的方法使用的点是通过卫星图像捕获的数据获得的。大多数方法都需要在地形曲面上预先计算网格。我们的方法克服了网格步骤,因此建模过程非常快速。
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引用次数: 0
A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE ESTIMATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS OF MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING (MRI) UNITS AND COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY (CT) SCANNERS 核磁共振成像(MRI)设备和计算机断层扫描(CT)扫描仪二氧化碳排放量的预测模型
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N2.172-187
Giorgos P. Kouropoulos
The scope of the specific study is the statistical prediction of the annual carbon dioxide use emissions due to the operation of computed tomography (CT) scanners and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) units in hospitals, health units and diagnostic centers, for the period between 2018 and 2030, in 120 countries across the world. The main sources of information for this study comprise statistical data from international organizations, scientific articles and measurements. The basic calculation tool of the study is a mathematical model, modified in such a way so that the calculations can be carried out using the available statistical data. In the final stage of the study, the functions that predict the carbon dioxide use emissions in relation to the years, will be extracted. Furthermore, all the errors and uncertainties of the mathematical model will be estimated. The conclusion, arising after implementation of the calculations, is that the carbon dioxide use emissions of CT scanners and MRI units are expected to grow by 30%, i.e., from 0.344 gigatonnes in 2018 to 0.497 gigatonnes in 2030.
具体研究的范围是统计预测2018年至2030年期间,全球120个国家的医院、卫生单位和诊断中心的计算机断层扫描(CT)扫描仪和磁共振成像(MRI)设备的运行所产生的二氧化碳年排放量。本研究的主要资料来源包括来自国际组织的统计数据、科学文章和测量。本研究的基本计算工具是一个数学模型,经过修改后,可以使用可用的统计数据进行计算。在研究的最后阶段,将提取预测二氧化碳使用排放量与年份相关的函数。并对数学模型的误差和不确定性进行了估计。计算实施后得出的结论是,CT扫描仪和MRI设备的二氧化碳使用排放量预计将增长30%,即从2018年的0.344亿吨增加到2030年的0.497亿吨。
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引用次数: 7
A WATER AUDIT ANALYSIS TOOL FOR URBAN WATER UTILITY 一种用于城市供水企业的水审计分析工具
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2017.V12N1.015025
M. Choudhary, Ruchika Sharma, Sudhir Kumar
This paper introduces a procedure for calculating non revenue water (NRW) based on IWA terminology. A water audit analysis tool is developed to determine the components of water balance i.e.; apparent and real losses for Jaipur water utility, India. Identification of these parameters is important especially in developing countries with critical water resource situation in water scare urban area. Water audit analysis tool also evaluates the leakage performance indicators i.e. Unavoidable Real Losses (UARL) and Infrastructure Leakage Index (ILI). Results reveals that Jaipur water utility suffers with a technical and managerial constraints and reporting high level of non revenue water (50% of the total water produced). The Real losses (37% of total water supplied) is the major component of NRW due to old deteriorating water supply asset with poor operation and management (O&M). Apparent losses (8% of the total water supplies) are significant component of NRW due to meter under registration, illegal connections and thefts and also indicated by value of Infrastructure Leakage Index (2.311). There is need of proper NRW reduction strategy which addresses all these three issues of real losses, unauthorized consumption and management practices along with change management strategy.
本文介绍了一种基于IWA术语的非收益水(NRW)计算程序。开发了一种水审计分析工具,以确定水平衡的组成部分,即:。;印度斋浦尔水务公司的明显和实际损失。确定这些参数非常重要,尤其是在缺水城市地区水资源状况危急的发展中国家。水审计分析工具还评估泄漏性能指标,即不可避免的实际损失(UARL)和基础设施泄漏指数(ILI)。结果显示,斋浦尔供水公司受到技术和管理方面的限制,非收入用水水平很高(占总产水量的50%)。实际损失(占供水总量的37%)是NRW的主要组成部分,原因是运营和管理不善的老旧供水资产不断恶化。由于水表注册不足、非法连接和盗窃,表观损失(占总供水量的8%)是NRW的重要组成部分,基础设施泄漏指数(2.311)也表明了这一点。需要适当的NRW减少策略来解决所有这三个实际损失问题,未经授权的消费和管理实践以及变更管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
PREDICTION OF PERFORMANCE FOR SAVONIUSDARRIEUS WIND ROTOR BY HYBRID NEURO-FUZZY CONTROLLER 基于混合神经模糊控制器的savonusdarius风机转子性能预测
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2017.V12N1.093101
A. Biswas, Rajat Gupta
Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) is a viable proposition for small-scale uses like, rural electrification, pumping, desalinating, household applications etc in many developing countries including India. In this paper, a hybrid neuro-fuzzy controller has been developed using gradient-based training algorithm to evaluate the performance of a combined three-bladed Savonius-Darrieus rotor. The objective of the study is to design a controller that causes more uniform loading on the generator by minimizing fluctuations in output parameters with change of input and also that improves rotor performance. A two-input-single-output controller has been designed. The tip speed ratio and overlap have been taken as input parameters, and output parameters are power coefficients and torque coefficients. At the first step, the input data are fuzzified by assigning fuzzy levels to the input data sets, and then trained outputs are obtained by back propagation learning algorithm. The controller results are in good agreement with the experimental results both qualitatively and quantitatively. For power coefficient (Cp), the agreement is within 4.5%, and for torque coefficient (Ct) it is within 2%. Moreover, the performance of the hybrid neuro-fuzzy controller has also been compared with Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) & ANN controller. The present controller predicts smoother values of performance parameters compared with other controllers.
垂直轴风力涡轮机(VAWT)在包括印度在内的许多发展中国家的农村电气化、抽水、脱盐、家庭应用等小规模应用中是一个可行的提议。本文采用基于梯度的训练算法开发了一种混合神经模糊控制器,用于评估组合三叶Savonius-Darrieus转子的性能。研究的目的是设计一种控制器,使输出参数随输入变化的波动最小化,从而使发电机负载更加均匀,并提高转子性能。设计了一种双输入单输出控制器。输入参数为叶尖速比和重叠,输出参数为功率系数和转矩系数。首先对输入数据集进行模糊化处理,然后通过反向传播学习算法得到训练后的输出。控制器的控制结果与实验结果在定性和定量上都符合得很好。对于功率系数(Cp),一致性在4.5%以内,对于扭矩系数(Ct),一致性在2%以内。此外,还将神经模糊混合控制器的性能与模糊逻辑控制器(FLC)和人工神经网络控制器进行了比较。与其他控制器相比,该控制器预测的性能参数值更平滑。
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引用次数: 0
WETLAND CHANGE ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DENSE VEGETATION BY SPATIAL APPROACH 基于空间方法的湿地变化分析及其对茂密植被的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.4090/JUEE.2018.V12N1.070076
Leelambar Singh, Y. Katpatal
Wetlands are the most important component of an ecosystem that provides ecological habitats and hence wetlands are supposed to be the indicators of healthy environment. It has been observed recently that the wetlands are affected by several anthropogenic impacts and climate change. Monitoring of the wetlands for their preservation has become mandatory. The present study uses MODIS satellite data of 2000 and 2014 for recording the temporal change in the status of the wetlands in Nagpur district, Maharashtra India. Least square regression correlation had been performed between wetlands area and corresponding (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) NDVI of the selected wetlands. The study shows that the extent of the wetlands have reduced in the study area during 2000-2014. The Least square regression analysis result shows that vegetated areas within wetlands reduced during 2000 to 2014. This study highlights the present status of wetlands, which is helpful in future, conservation, assessment, and management of wetlands. The application of remote sensing and GIS techniques made analysis simpler and effective.
湿地是生态系统中最重要的组成部分,提供了生态栖息地,因此湿地被认为是健康环境的指标。近年来,湿地受到多种人为影响和气候变化的影响。为保护湿地而进行的监测已成为强制性的。本研究利用2000年和2014年的MODIS卫星数据记录了印度马哈拉施特拉邦那格浦尔地区湿地状况的时间变化。选取湿地面积与相应的归一化植被指数NDVI进行最小二乘回归相关分析。研究表明,2000-2014年研究区湿地面积有所减少。最小二乘回归分析结果表明,2000 ~ 2014年湿地植被面积呈减少趋势。本研究突出了湿地的现状,为今后湿地的保护、评价和管理提供参考。遥感和地理信息系统技术的应用使分析变得简单有效。
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引用次数: 7
MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL- AND GIS-BASED APPROACH DEVELOPED FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IN URBAN WATERSHED 基于多元统计和GIS的城市流域综合环境分析方法
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.4090/juee.2018.v12n1.077087
R. Urban, L. A. Manfré, A. M. da Silva
This paper aims to assess the environmental quality of a small urban watershed, located at a sub-tropical region highly urbanized in Brazil, using water and soil quality, land cover and terrain characteristics. The proposed methodology was based in physical and chemical features of 40 soil sampling sites, land cover and slope. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to define the best variables to the analysis. The soil quality, land cover and slope data was grouped and categorized in qualitative variables. Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was applied to cluster the variables. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to build the zoning map. During 12 months water was sampled in two sites in the same river at the watershed. PCA was used again to define water quality and differences between the two sampling sites. Porosity and carbon rate were the principal soil variables to distinguish three different soil zones 1, 2 and 3 represent 15,1%; 9,8% e 75,1% of the area, respectively. Zone 1 present condition that must be conserved to maintain environmental services as water retaining and carbon storage. Related to water quality, the PCA presented differences between dry and wet season. Besides, sampling site 1, located within a vegetation region presents better conditions than sampling site 2, located within urban land cover. The assessment method used multivariate statistics and GIS. The methodology is a useful tool to environmental planning. The replication of this methodology is encouraged, in order to assess its suitability in different conditions, i.e. climate and size.
本文旨在利用水土质量、土地覆盖和地形特征,评估位于巴西城市化程度较高的亚热带地区的一个小型城市流域的环境质量。所提出的方法基于40个土壤采样点的物理和化学特征、土地覆盖和坡度。主成分分析(PCA)用于定义分析的最佳变量。土壤质量、土地覆盖和坡度数据被分组并分类为定性变量。采用多重对应分析(MCA)对变量进行聚类。地理信息系统(GIS)工具用于绘制分区图。在12个月的时间里,在分水岭的同一条河流中的两个地点对水进行了采样。再次使用主成分分析来确定水质以及两个采样点之间的差异。孔隙度和含碳率是区分三个不同土壤区的主要土壤变量,1、2和3分别占15,1%;分别占面积的9.8%和75.1%。1区目前的状况必须加以保护,以维持挡水和碳储存等环境服务。与水质有关,主成分分析显示了旱季和雨季之间的差异。此外,位于植被区内的采样点1比位于城市土地覆盖区内的取样点2具有更好的条件。评估方法采用多元统计和GIS。该方法是环境规划的有用工具。鼓励复制这种方法,以评估其在不同条件下的适用性,即气候和规模。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering
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