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Ecological Risk–Benefit Analysis for Assisted Colonization 辅助定植的生态风险-效益分析
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70613
Rafael D'Andrea, György Barabás, Sarah E. Dalrymple, Wendy Foden, Piero Genovesi, Meghna Krishnadas, Mathew A. Leibold, Mark A. McPeek, Axel Moehrenschlager, Jon Paul Rodriguez, H. Reşit Akçakaya

Assisted colonization (AC), translocating a species outside its indigenous range to avoid its extinction, is one of the few conservation options for some species. It is also controversial because of the history of ecological impacts of invasive species, including the extinction of native species as a result of novel ecological interactions resulting from the introduction. Although several national and international organizations have issued guidelines related to AC, none allow case-specific decision-making based on risks and benefits to biodiversity. We propose a two-pronged approach to fill this gap. The first step aims to separate clear-cut cases of AC from those that require an in-depth risk analysis. We propose a set of seven qualitative criteria to identify AC projects that are clearly low-risk and high-benefit, and therefore should not be controversial, and those that are clearly high-risk or low-benefit and therefore should not be attempted. This identifies only the most obvious cases, leaving out many cases to be determined through a quantitative analysis to estimate the probabilities of extirpation of the resident species because of AC, which is the second step of our approach. We propose a roadmap for developing such a system based on community ecology theory, and a framework for considering the estimated probabilities in a global context. Our framework recommends an AC project only if it would result in a larger number of globally extant species than a scenario of no action. We propose large-scale testing of the clear-cut approach, further development of the quantitative approach, and wide consultation for adopting international guidelines for risk assessment of AC projects.

辅助定植(AC)是将一个物种转移到其本土范围之外以避免其灭绝的方法,是一些物种为数不多的保护选择之一。这也是有争议的,因为入侵物种的生态影响的历史,包括由于引入而产生的新的生态相互作用导致本地物种的灭绝。尽管一些国家和国际组织已经发布了与生物多样性相关的指导方针,但没有一个允许基于生物多样性的风险和利益进行具体案例决策。我们提出了一个双管齐下的方法来填补这一空白。第一步旨在将明确的AC病例与需要深入风险分析的病例分开。我们提出了一套7个定性标准,以确定显然是低风险和高效益的交流项目,因此不应该有争议,而那些显然是高风险或低效益的交流项目,因此不应该尝试。这种方法只确定了最明显的病例,而忽略了许多病例,这些病例需要通过定量分析来确定,以估计由于AC而导致的常驻物种灭绝的概率,这是我们方法的第二步。我们提出了一个基于群落生态学理论的发展路线图,以及一个在全球范围内考虑估计概率的框架。我们的框架建议,只有在采取行动的情况下,全球现存物种的数量才会比不采取行动的情况下更多。我们建议对明确方法进行大规模测试,进一步发展定量方法,并就采用AC项目风险评估的国际准则进行广泛磋商。
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引用次数: 0
Policy Inaction Risks Breaching the 2°C Climate Target 政策不作为有可能突破2°C气候目标
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70614
Xiaopeng Deng, Zhangcai Qin, Min Chen, Wenjie Dong, Yao Huang, Son Hwi Kim, Hanzhi Xie, Wenping Yuan

Despite repeated increases in national climate pledges since the Paris Agreement, a significant gap remains between collective ambition and the action required to meet its temperature goals. Integrating these pledges with global models, we show that full implementation would still lead to approximately 1.7°C of warming, missing the 1.5°C target. When considering ongoing policy inaction, a cumulative shortfall of 505 GtCO2e in anticipated mitigation is expected, and this warming increases by nearly 0.3°C, drastically narrowing the window to stay below 2.0°C. Our analysis reveals a critical disparity on a regional level: High-income nations are often meeting modest targets, while low-income countries face capacity constraints in delivering ambitious pledges. This imbalance underscores that persistent inequities in responsibility and resources are undermining global climate effectiveness. Closing the ambition–credibility gap urgently requires enhanced international cooperation and support to ensure a viable pathway for all.

尽管自《巴黎协定》以来各国的气候承诺不断增加,但在集体雄心与实现其温度目标所需的行动之间仍存在巨大差距。将这些承诺与全球模型相结合,我们表明,全面实施仍将导致约1.7°C的变暖,无法实现1.5°C的目标。考虑到目前的政策不作为,预计在预期缓解方面将累计出现505亿吨二氧化碳当量的缺口,而这一升温幅度将增加近0.3°C,从而大大缩小了保持在2.0°C以下的窗口。我们的分析揭示了地区层面的严重差异:高收入国家往往实现了适度的目标,而低收入国家在实现雄心勃勃的承诺方面面临能力限制。这种不平衡突出表明,责任和资源方面持续存在的不平等正在破坏全球气候的有效性。缩小雄心与信誉之间的差距迫切需要加强国际合作和支持,以确保所有人都有一条可行的道路。
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引用次数: 0
Global Warming and Genomic Diversity Loss Alter the Biomass and the Size Distribution of Experimental Fish Populations 全球变暖和基因组多样性的丧失改变了实验鱼类种群的生物量和大小分布
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70611
Maxime Stanislawek, Murielle Richard, Allan Raffard, Laura Fargeot, Maxim Lefort, Camille Poesy, Géraldine Loot, Simon Blanchet

Warming and the loss of genetic diversity are two major components of global change for which the combined effects on the productivity and the size distribution of ectotherms have rarely been investigated. However, because genetic diversity should make populations more resilient to environmental changes, the loss of genetic diversity within populations could amplify the impacts of warming on ectotherm populations. Here, we fill this gap by using freshwater mesocosms in which we manipulated for 1 year both the genomic diversity of experimental fish populations (minnows, Phoxinus dragarum) and climatic conditions (ambient and warmed climates). We estimated across conditions the productivity (total fish biomass) and the size distribution (CV and size spectrum) of fish populations, as well as the individual growth rate and the survival rate of juvenile and adult fish. The productivity of minnow populations was not altered by climate warming, but decreased with the loss of genomic diversity (estimated using thousands of SNPs) within populations. However, populations were more homogeneous in body mass (lower CV and lower size spectrum exponent) under warm climate and when their genomic diversity was low. These impacts at the population level were underlined by contrasted effects of warming and genomic diversity on juveniles and adults. Specifically, adult survival was lower in warmer conditions, whereas juvenile individual growth rate was higher in the warmer treatments. Our study demonstrates that warming and the loss of genetic diversity have combined effects on the productivity and size distribution of fish populations. Although these combined effects are difficult to predict, we show that genetic diversity could play a crucial role in organism responses to climate warming, emphasizing the importance of intraspecific diversity for ecosystem resilience and adaptation.

变暖和遗传多样性的丧失是全球变化的两个主要组成部分,它们对变温动物的生产力和大小分布的综合影响很少被研究。然而,由于遗传多样性应该使种群更能适应环境变化,种群内部遗传多样性的丧失可能会放大变暖对变温动物种群的影响。在这里,我们通过使用淡水中生态系统来填补这一空白,我们在淡水中生态系统中对实验鱼类种群(鲦鱼、龙爪鱼)的基因组多样性和气候条件(环境和温暖的气候)进行了1年的操纵。我们估计了不同条件下鱼类种群的生产力(总生物量)和大小分布(CV和大小谱),以及幼鱼和成鱼的个体生长率和存活率。气候变暖并未改变鲦鱼种群的生产力,但随着种群内基因组多样性的丧失(估计使用数千个snp)而下降。然而,在温暖气候和基因组多样性较低的条件下,种群的体质量更为均匀(CV值较低,体型谱指数较低)。这些在种群水平上的影响通过变暖和基因组多样性对幼鱼和成鱼的对比效应得到强调。具体来说,在温暖的条件下,成虫的存活率较低,而在温暖的条件下,幼虫的个体生长速度较高。我们的研究表明,气候变暖和遗传多样性的丧失对鱼类种群的生产力和大小分布有共同的影响。尽管这些综合效应难以预测,但我们表明遗传多样性可能在生物对气候变暖的响应中发挥关键作用,强调了种内多样性对生态系统恢复和适应的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Warming Amplifies Responses of Soil Organic Carbon to Multiple Global Change Drivers 变暖放大了土壤有机碳对多种全球变化驱动因素的响应
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70612
Yuan Sun, Xinli Chen, Chen Chen, Xiaoming Zou, Cuiting Wang, César Terrer, Han Y. H. Chen, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Honghua Ruan

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest terrestrial C reservoir on Earth, which plays a critical role in climate regulation. While global warming is a defining feature of anthropogenic climate change, its interactive effects with other global change drivers on the content of SOC remain unclear. For this study we conducted a global meta-analysis of 2349 observations from 363 studies, which revealed that warming alone reduced SOC by 7.2% while synergistically amplifying responses to other drivers. It enhanced the effects of elevated CO2 by 240% and those of nitrogen addition by 350%, while exacerbating drought-induced losses by 340%. Noticeably, while warming revealed synergistic interactions with other drivers, the interactions between elevated CO2, nitrogen addition, and drought were additive. The responses of SOC consistently strengthened with treatment intensity and duration across diverse ranges of ecosystems, climates, and soil textures. These findings establish warming as a catalytic force that reshapes SOC dynamics under ongoing global change, with profound implications for terrestrial C-climate feedbacks.

土壤有机碳(SOC)是地球上最大的陆地碳库,在气候调节中起着至关重要的作用。虽然全球变暖是人为气候变化的一个决定性特征,但其与其他全球变化驱动因素对有机碳含量的交互影响尚不清楚。在这项研究中,我们对来自363项研究的2349个观测数据进行了全球meta分析,结果显示,仅变暖就使碳含量降低了7.2%,同时协同放大了对其他驱动因素的响应。它使co2浓度升高的效应增强了240%,氮添加的效应增强了350%,同时使干旱造成的损失加剧了340%。值得注意的是,虽然变暖显示了与其他驱动因素的协同作用,但CO 2升高、氮添加和干旱之间的相互作用是加性的。在不同的生态系统、气候和土壤质地范围内,土壤有机碳的响应随处理强度和持续时间的增加而增强。这些发现表明,在持续的全球变化中,变暖是重塑有机碳动态的催化力量,对陆地C -气候反馈具有深远的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Rapid Global Deforestation Leaves Forest-Dependent Raptors With Half of Their Suitable Habitat Remaining 快速的全球森林砍伐使依赖森林的猛禽失去了一半的栖息地
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70603
Christopher J. O'Bryan, Zunyi Xie, Hongli Li, Evan R. Buechley, Martin K.-F. Bader, James R. Allan, Ralph Buij

Raptors—a group that includes hawks, eagles, owls, and vultures—are among the most imperiled vertebrates, with over half of species declining and one-fifth threatened with extinction. Most raptors depend on forests for survival, yet the extent and consequences of recent deforestation within their ranges remain poorly understood. We analyzed high-resolution global data on forest change between 2001 and 2023 within the ranges of 369 forest-dependent raptor species. On average, these species have lost 10% of forest within their ranges since 2001. Seventy-seven species had already lost at least 15% of additional forest cover within their ranges in the latter half of the 20th century. Currently, only 52% of forest cover remains within forest-dependent species' ranges on average, with many forest specialists retaining less than 25% cover. Forest-dependent raptors listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN have lost the most forest and now retain the least forest cover within their ranges. Shifting agriculture is the primary driver of forest loss—particularly in tropical Africa and South America—followed by commodity-driven deforestation in Southeast Asia. Because forest loss is frequently used as a proxy for extinction risk for raptors, our findings have direct applications for species threat assessments, regional conservation priorities, and global biodiversity commitments.

猛禽——包括鹰、鹰、猫头鹰和秃鹫——是最濒危的脊椎动物之一,超过一半的物种正在减少,五分之一的物种濒临灭绝。大多数猛禽依靠森林生存,但最近在其活动范围内森林砍伐的程度和后果仍然知之甚少。我们分析了2001年至2023年间全球森林变化的高分辨率数据,其中包括369种依赖森林的猛禽。自2001年以来,这些物种平均失去了其活动范围内10%的森林。在20世纪下半叶,77个物种已经在其活动范围内失去了至少15%的额外森林覆盖。目前,平均只有52%的森林覆盖率保持在森林依赖物种的范围内,许多森林专业物种的覆盖率低于25%。被世界自然保护联盟列为极度濒危物种的依赖森林的猛禽已经失去了大部分森林,现在在它们的活动范围内保留了最少的森林覆盖。农业转型是森林损失的主要驱动因素,特别是在热带非洲和南美洲,其次是商品驱动的东南亚森林砍伐。由于森林损失经常被用作猛禽灭绝风险的代表,我们的研究结果可以直接应用于物种威胁评估、区域保护优先事项和全球生物多样性承诺。
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引用次数: 0
Systematic Continental Scale Monitoring by Weather Surveillance Radar Shows Fewer Insects Above Warming Landscapes in the United States 气象监测雷达系统的大陆尺度监测显示,美国变暖景观上方的昆虫数量减少
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70587
Elske K. Tielens, Phillip M. Stepanian, Jeffrey F. Kelly

Anthropogenic change is predicted to result in widespread declines in insect abundance, but assessing long-term trends is challenging due to the scarcity of systematically collected time series measurements across large spatial scales. We develop a novel continental-scale dataset using a nationwide network of radars in the United States to generate a 10-year time series of daily aerial insect density and assess temporal trends. We do not find evidence of a continental-scale net decline in insect density over the 10-year period included in this study; instead we find a mosaic of increasing and declining trends at the landscape scale. This spatial variation in density trends is associated with climatic drivers, where areas with warmer winters experience greater declines in insect density and areas with cooling winter trends see increases in density. Winter warming has a stronger negative effect on density at higher latitudes. After assessing temporal trends, we also use the 10-year dataset and atmospheric variables to model insect aerial abundance, finding that on a typical summer day approximately a hundred trillion (1014) flying insects are present in the airspace, representing millions of tons of aerial biomass. Our results provide the first continental-scale quantification of insect density and its response to anthropogenic warming and demonstrate the utility of weather surveillance radar to provide large-scale monitoring of insect abundance.

据预测,人为变化将导致昆虫丰度的广泛下降,但由于缺乏大空间尺度上系统收集的时间序列测量数据,评估长期趋势具有挑战性。我们开发了一个新的大陆尺度数据集,使用美国全国范围的雷达网络来生成10年的每日航空昆虫密度时间序列,并评估时间趋势。在本研究的10年期间,我们没有发现大陆尺度昆虫密度净下降的证据;相反,我们在景观尺度上发现了一个上升和下降趋势的马赛克。这种密度趋势的空间变化与气候驱动因素有关,冬季较暖的地区昆虫密度下降幅度较大,冬季较冷的地区昆虫密度增加。冬季变暖对高纬度地区的密度有更强的负面影响。在评估了时间趋势之后,我们还使用了10年数据集和大气变量来模拟空中昆虫的丰度,发现在一个典型的夏季,大约有100万亿只飞虫存在于空域中,代表了数百万吨的空中生物量。我们的研究结果首次在大陆尺度上量化了昆虫密度及其对人为变暖的响应,并证明了气象监测雷达在提供大规模昆虫丰度监测方面的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal Adaptation of Bacterial and Fungal Growth in a Geothermally Influenced Soil Transect 在一个受地热影响的土壤样带中细菌和真菌生长的热适应
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70605
Charlotte J. Alster, Louis A. Schipper, Erland Bååth
<div> <p>Numerous studies have investigated microbial adaptation to increasing soil temperature, but limitations in experimental design hinder comprehensive understanding. These include short-term laboratory studies with constant environmental conditions and field studies with few distinct temperature treatments. Here, we utilized a long-term natural soil geothermal gradient in Aotearoa, New Zealand, ranging in mean annual soil temperature (MAT) from 17°C to 42°C to explore thermal adaptation of microbial growth rates. We collected soil from 28 locations along the gradient and measured bacterial growth rate (via leucine incorporation) at eight temperatures (4°C–45°C) and fungal growth rate (via Ac-in-ergosterol) at two temperatures (16°C and 39°C). We then fit Macromolecular Rate Theory and the Ratkowsky equation to estimate the temperature minimum (<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>min</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{min} $$</annotation> </semantics></math>), optimum (<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>opt</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{opt} $$</annotation> </semantics></math>), and inflection point (<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>inf</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{inf} $$</annotation> </semantics></math>) for bacterial growth, and a temperature sensitivity index to compare relative fungal and bacterial growth rates. We found predictable changes in thermal adaptation of bacterial growth along the geothermal gradient with temperature response curves shifting 0.22°C–0.27°C per 1°C increase in MAT regardless of the temperature metric (i.e., <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>min</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{min} $$</annotation> </semantics></math>, <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>opt</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{opt} $$</annotation> </semantics></math>, and <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>inf</mi> </msub> </mrow> <annotation>$$ {T}_{inf} $$</annotation>
许多研究调查了微生物对土壤温度升高的适应,但实验设计的局限性阻碍了全面的理解。这些研究包括恒定环境条件下的短期实验室研究和很少不同温度处理的现场研究。在这里,我们利用新西兰Aotearoa的长期自然土壤地热梯度,在平均年土壤温度(MAT)从17°C到42°C的范围内探索微生物生长速率的热适应。我们沿着梯度收集了28个地点的土壤,并测量了8种温度(4°C - 45°C)下的细菌生长速度(通过亮氨酸加入)和2种温度(16°C和39°C)下的真菌生长速度(通过Ac - in -麦角甾醇)。然后,我们拟合大分子速率理论和Ratkowsky方程来估计细菌生长的温度最小值()、最佳值()和拐点(),并建立温度敏感性指数来比较真菌和细菌的相对生长速度。我们发现细菌生长的热适应性在地热梯度上发生了可预测的变化,无论使用何种温度指标(即、和),MAT每增加1°C,温度响应曲线都会变化0.22°C - 0.27°C。细菌和真菌生长的热适应性大致平行增加。我们还将细菌生长结果与已发表的微生物呼吸温度响应数据(添加葡萄糖)进行了比较。细菌生长和微生物呼吸的热适应速率相似,表明微生物过程具有同步性。在所有测量的温度指标中,MAT每增加1度变化小于1°C,导致微生物生长和活性在高土壤温度下接近原位温度,而在非升高土壤温度下低于原位温度。总的来说,我们的研究结果强调了地热梯度和适当温度模型在研究土壤微生物过程热适应中的应用;结果的可预测性也强调了将微生物热适应纳入土壤碳模拟工作的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Coral Bleaching: The Equatorial-Refugia Hypothesis 珊瑚白化:赤道避难所假说
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70594
Zachary Ferris, Andrew S. Walker, Håvard Rue, Robert van Woesik

The rising threat of marine heatwaves has led to numerous predictions that coral reefs, especially those near the Equator, will be severely degraded by the end of the current century. Yet, environmental conditions near the Equator may regionally moderate coral bleaching by reducing thermal stress during marine heatwaves. We deployed a Bayesian spatio-temporal model over Earth to examine which environmental conditions may characterize marine-heatwave refugia for coral reefs by testing the relationship between the severity of coral bleaching and a suite of temperature, hydrodynamic, topographic, atmospheric, and biological variables. The model considered the severity of coral bleaching as the proportion of bleached hard corals during 30,266 coral-reef surveys conducted at 8728 sites, at depths of up to 20 m, and located between 35° north and south of the Equator across 81 countries, from 2002 to 2020. Except for the eastern Pacific Ocean, the severity of coral bleaching during marine heatwaves was lower on equatorial reefs than on higher-latitude reefs, suggesting that marine-heatwave refugia for corals have been concentrated in the equatorial Coral Triangle region. Indeed, equatorial reefs in the Coral Triangle were, on average, exposed to the weakest marine heatwaves, potentially because they were shielded from extreme insolation by frequent cloud coverage in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Coral bleaching may also be moderated during marine heatwaves on reefs that experience high wave energy, high current velocity, high cloud frequency, or turbidity. Coral bleaching was also less severe on reefs that historically endured frequent heatwaves than on reefs that were naïve to thermal stress. Based on modern and historical responses of coral reefs to acute thermal stress, we hypothesize that many equatorial reefs will continue to serve as marine-heatwave refugia for corals.

由于海洋热浪的威胁日益严重,许多人预测,到本世纪末,珊瑚礁,特别是赤道附近的珊瑚礁,将严重退化。然而,赤道附近的环境条件可能会在海洋热浪期间减少热应力,从而在区域上缓和珊瑚白化。我们在地球上部署了一个贝叶斯时空模型,通过测试珊瑚白化的严重程度与一系列温度、水动力、地形、大气和生物变量之间的关系,来检查哪些环境条件可能是珊瑚礁海洋热浪避难所的特征。该模型考虑了珊瑚白化的严重程度,即在2002年至2020年期间,在81个国家的8728个地点进行的30,266次珊瑚礁调查中,在深度达20米的情况下,在赤道南北35°之间进行的硬珊瑚白化比例。除东太平洋外,赤道珊瑚礁在海洋热浪中珊瑚白化的严重程度低于高纬度珊瑚礁,表明珊瑚的海洋热浪避难所主要集中在赤道珊瑚三角地区。实际上,平均而言,珊瑚三角的赤道珊瑚礁暴露在最弱的海洋热浪中,这可能是因为热带辐合带频繁的云层覆盖使它们免受极端日晒的影响。在经历高波能、高流速、高云频率或浊度的珊瑚礁上,海洋热浪也可能减缓珊瑚白化。在历史上经常遭受热浪的珊瑚礁上,珊瑚白化的严重程度也低于naïve受热应力影响的珊瑚礁。基于珊瑚礁对急性热应力的现代和历史反应,我们假设许多赤道珊瑚礁将继续作为珊瑚的海洋热浪避难所。
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引用次数: 0
Can Oxygen Isotopes in Tree Rings Be Used to Detect Stomatal Responses to Global Change? 树木年轮中的氧同位素可以用来检测气孔对全球变化的响应吗?
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70604
Imogen Carter, Roel Brienen, Manuel Gloor

Stomatal conductance (gs) regulates CO2 and water fluxes of plants. Although experiments have shown that gs decreases with elevated CO2, it is unclear how gs is responding in situ to long-term exposures to rising CO2 and a changing climate. Tree ring isotope analysis provides a unique method to assess tree ecophysiological responses to long-term exposures of slowly changing environmental conditions. In particular, it has been suggested that changes in gs can potentially be inferred from tree ring stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ18Otrc). Several studies have indeed used δ18Otrc trends to conclude that gs has not significantly changed from pre-industrial values. However, it remains unclear whether δ18Otrc is sufficiently sensitive to detect the magnitude of change in gs expected due to CO2 increases and climatic changes. Here, we evaluate the sensitivity of δ18Otrc trends to CO2 and climate induced changes in gs, and to VPD and temperature increases since the beginning of the 20th century, using current theoretical models. We find that temporal changes in gs only significantly affect δ18Otrc trends when the Péclet effect is present, and then only in dry climates. In contrast to the weak effects of gs on δ18Otrc trends, we find that temporal increases in VPD and temperature, independent of changes in gs, have far greater contributions to δ18Otrc trends. Thus, this increasingly popular method should be used with caution, because it is highly challenging to unambiguously attribute trends in δ18Otrc to changes in gs. Despite current limitations, we recommend how future studies can address these challenges in efforts to detect long-term gs trends from tree ring records.

气孔导度(g s)调节植物的co2和水分通量。虽然实验表明,随着二氧化碳浓度的升高,温室气体含量会降低,但目前尚不清楚温室气体是如何对长期暴露于二氧化碳浓度上升和气候变化做出反应的。树木年轮同位素分析为评估树木长期暴露于缓慢变化的环境条件下的生态生理反应提供了一种独特的方法。特别是,有人认为,gs的变化可以从树木年轮稳定氧同位素比值(δ 18o trc)中推断出来。一些研究确实利用δ 18o trc趋势得出结论,g与工业化前的值相比没有显著变化。然而,目前尚不清楚δ 18o trc是否足够敏感,能够探测到由于co2增加和气候变化而预期的温室气体变化幅度。在此,我们利用现有的理论模型,评估了20世纪初以来δ 18o trc趋势对co2和气候引起的gs变化,以及对VPD和温度升高的敏感性。我们发现,只有当psamclet效应存在时,g s的时间变化才会显著影响δ 18o trc趋势,然后只有在干燥气候下才会如此。与g s对δ 18o trc趋势的微弱影响相反,我们发现VPD和温度的时间增加(独立于g s的变化)对δ 18o trc趋势的贡献要大得多。因此,这种日益流行的方法应该谨慎使用,因为将δ 18o trc的趋势明确地归因于g s的变化是非常具有挑战性的。尽管目前存在局限性,但我们建议未来的研究如何在从树木年轮记录中检测长期g - s趋势的努力中解决这些挑战。
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引用次数: 0
CO2 Rise Directly Impairs Crop Nutritional Quality 二氧化碳上升直接损害作物营养品质
IF 12 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70568
Sterre F. ter Haar, Peter M. van Bodegom, Laura Scherer

Rising CO2 levels indirectly affect food availability (e.g., through climate shifts, biological consequences, and shifting socioeconomic systems). Less known is the direct effect of CO2 on nutrient availability by changing the plant stoichiometry. We help fill this gap, presenting a new methodology and creating the largest meta-analysis on edible plant parts to date, including the most data (5324 entries covering 29,524 observation pairs), crops (43), and (anti)nutrients (32). The results show a pervasive elemental shift across a wide range of species as CO2 rises. Elements respond differentially, with zinc decreasing the most. Plants with not only a C3 but also a C4 photosynthetic pathway respond. Impacts vary by species and tissue type. This stoichiometric shift can lead to (worsening) malnutrition even in previously sufficient populations. Nutrient security is under threat even if food security remains adequate; food will become more caloric and less nutritious.

二氧化碳水平上升间接影响粮食供应(例如,通过气候变化、生物后果和不断变化的社会经济系统)。鲜为人知的是二氧化碳通过改变植物化学计量对养分有效性的直接影响。我们帮助填补了这一空白,提出了一种新的方法,并创建了迄今为止最大的可食用植物部分元分析,包括最多的数据(5324个条目,涵盖29,524对观察),作物(43)和(抗)营养素(32)。结果表明,随着二氧化碳浓度的上升,大量物种的元素都发生了普遍的变化。各元素的反应不同,其中锌的下降幅度最大。植物不仅有C3光合途径,也有C4光合途径。影响因物种和组织类型而异。这种化学计量变化甚至会导致(恶化的)营养不良,即使在以前充足的人口中也是如此。即使粮食安全仍然充足,营养安全也受到威胁;食物的热量会越来越高,营养却越来越少。
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引用次数: 0
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Global Change Biology
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