Global Change Biology最新文献

The existence of sex-specific differences in phenotypic traits is widely recognized. Yet they are often ignored in studies looking at the impact of global changes on marine organisms, particularly within the context of combined drivers that are known to elicit complex interactions. We tested sex-specific physiological responses of the cosmopolitan and ecologically important marine copepod Acartia tonsa exposed to combined hypoxia and marine heatwave (MHW) conditions, both of which individually strongly affect marine ectotherms. Females and males were acutely exposed for 5 days to a combination of either control (18°C) or a high temperature mimicking a MHW (25°C), and normoxia (100% O₂ sat.) or mild hypoxia (35% O₂ sat.). Life-history traits, as well as sex-specific survival and physiological traits, were measured. Females had overall higher thermal tolerance levels and responded differently than males when exposed to the combined global change drivers investigated. Females also showed lower metabolic thermal sensitivity when compared to males. Additionally, the MHW exerted a dominant effect on the traits investigated, causing a lower survival and higher metabolic rate at 25°C. However, egg production rates appeared unaffected by hypoxia and MHW conditions. Our results showed that MHWs could strongly affect copepods' survival, that combined exposure to hypoxia and MHW exerted an interactive effect only on CT_max, and that sex-specific vulnerability to these global change drivers could have major implications for population dynamics. Our results highlight the importance of considering the differences in the responses of females and males to rapid environmental changes to improve the implementation of climate-smart conservation approaches.

Addressing the global challenges of climate change and biotic invasions requires understanding their interactions and implications for natural resource management. To facilitate and support invasive species management in a changing climate, we review how climate change and invasions interact to impact the planning, action, and outcomes of invasive species management. Climate change is facilitating the introduction of new potential invasive species and altering pathways of introduction and spread, with implications for which species natural resource managers need to assess, monitor, and target. Climate-driven shifts in invasive species phenology require more flexible management timelines. Climate change may reduce the efficacy and feasibility of current treatment methods and make native ecosystems more vulnerable to invasion. Additionally, disturbance caused by extreme climate events can compound the spread and impacts of biological invasions, making invasive species management a necessary part of extreme event preparation and response planning. As a solution to these challenges, we propose climate-smart invasive species management, which we define as the approaches that managers and decision-makers can take to address the interactive effects of climate change and invasions. Climate-smart invasive species management includes considering potential shifts in species ranges, abundances, and impacts to inform monitoring, treatment, and policies to prevent new invasive species. Climate-smart management may also involve adjusting the timing and type of treatment to maintain efficacy, promoting resilient ecosystems through climate-smart restoration, and considering the effects of climate change when setting management goals. Explicitly considering the interactions of climate change and biological invasions within organizational decision-making and policy can lead to more effective management and promote more resilient landscapes.

Disentangling the effects of cyclical variability in environmental forcing and long-term climate change on natural communities is a major challenge for ecologists, managers, and policy makers across ecosystems. Here we examined whether the vertical distribution of rocky intertidal taxa has shifted with sea-level variability occurring at multiple temporal scales and/or long-term anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR). Because of the distinct zonation characteristic of intertidal communities, any shift in tidal dynamics or average sea level is expected to have large impacts on community structure and function. We found that across the Northeast Pacific Coast (NPC), sea level exhibits cyclical seasonal variability, tidal amplitude exhibits ecologically significant variability coherent with the 18.6-year periodicity of lunar declination, and long-term sea-level rise is occurring. Intertidal taxa largely do not exhibit significant vertical distribution shifts coherent with short-term (monthly to annual) sea-level variability but do exhibit taxa-specific vertical distribution shifts coherent with cyclical changes in lunar declination and long-term SLR at decadal timescales. Finally, our results show that responses to cyclical celestial mechanics and SLR vary among taxa, primarily according to their vertical distribution. Long-term SLR is occurring on ecologically relevant scales, but the confounding effects of cyclical celestial mechanics make interpreting shifts in zonation or community structure challenging. Such cyclical dynamics alternatingly amplify and dampen long-term SLR impacts and may modify the impacts of other global change related stressors, such as extreme heat waves and swell events, on intertidal organisms living at the edge of their physiological tolerances. As a result, intertidal communities will likely experience cyclical periods of environmental stress and concomitant nonlinear shifts in structure and function as long-term climate change continues. Our results demonstrate that consistent, large-scale monitoring of marine ecosystems is critical for understanding natural variability in communities and documenting long-term change.

Preserved biological communities can provide baseline data about the historical ecosystems and environmental conditions that preceded recent anthropogenic alteration. Freshwater mussel shells show particularly good preservation, and the shell assemblages commonly found during archaeological excavations can offer insights into past ecosystems. We studied assemblages of Unio pictorum mussel shells from palaeochannel silts associated with the Late Bronze Age site of Must Farm in eastern England (c. 850 BC), on an ancient tributary of the modern-day River Nene. We compared archaeological shells from two sediment horizons (broadly 1300–700 BC) to live individuals collected from two analogous sites on the present-day Nene. Size and growth rate, interannual growth variability and stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) composition were compared between the populations. Size and the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L_∞ differed among all four populations. Mean lengths and L_∞ were higher in the two modern populations (mean lengths 77.3 ± SE 0.8 and 73.8 ± SE 1.1 mm, L_∞ 91.8 ± 5.4 and 79.0 ± 8.1 mm) than the ancient populations (mean lengths 58.1 ± SE 1.6 mm and 68.4 ± SE 0.9 mm; L_∞ 71.5 ± 16.9 and 76.8 ± 6.2 mm). Modern individuals also showed greater variation in age-corrected year-to-year growth. δ¹³C was lower in modern shells (−11.8‰ for modern shells, −9.03‰ and −9.02‰ for ancient shell populations), potentially reflecting altered hydrological and nutrient regimes. δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C were positively correlated for all but one sampled ancient shell, but not modern shells. These results reflect changes in local environmental conditions, particularly the transition from a shallow, slow-flowing tributary to a deeper, canalised river with faster flow, as well as effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. The findings demonstrate the importance of long-term data in studying anthropogenic ecosystem alteration and avoiding shifting baseline syndrome in conservation planning.

Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity is notably high and precipitation regimes largely determine the ecology of most organisms. We modeled possible changes in the severity of seasonal aridity by 2100 throughout the Neotropics and used birds to illustrate the implications of contrasting climate scenarios for the region's biodiversity. Under SSP-8.5, a pessimistic and hopefully unlikely scenario, longer dry seasons (> 5%), and increased moisture stress are projected for about 75% of extant lowland forests throughout the entire region with impacts on 66% of the region's lowland forest avifauna, which comprises over 3000 species and about 30% of all bird species globally. Longer dry seasons are predicted to be especially significant in the Caribbean, Upper South America, and Amazonia. In contrast, under SSP-2.6—a scenario with significant climate mitigation—only about 10% of the entire region's forest area and 3% of its avifauna will be exposed to longer dry seasons. The extent of current forest cover that may plausibly function as precipitation-based climate refugia (i.e., < 5% change in length of dry periods) for constituent biodiversity is over 4 times greater under SSP-2.6 than with SSP-8.5. Moreover, the proportion of currently protected areas that overlap putative refugia areas is nearly 4 times greater under SSP-2.6. Taken together, our results illustrate that climate policy will have profound outcomes for biodiversity throughout the Neotropics—even in areas where deforestation and other immediate threats are not currently in play.

Climate change is projected to decrease maize yields due to warmer temperatures and their consequences. Studies using crop growth models (CGMs), however, have predicted that, through a combination of alterations to planting date, flowering time, and maturity, these yield losses can be mitigated or even reversed. Here, we examine three assumptions of such studies: (1) that climate has driven historical phenological trends, (2) that CGM ensembles provide unbiased estimates of yields under high temperatures, and (3) that the effects of temperature on yields are an emergent property of interactions between phenology and environment. We used data on maize phenology from the United States Department of Agriculture, a statistical model of maize hybrid heat tolerance derived from 80 years of public yield trial records across four US states, and outputs of an ensemble of CMIP6 climate models. While planting dates have advanced historically, we found a trend toward later planting dates after 2005 and no trend for silking or maturity, shifting more time into the reproductive period. We then projected maize yields using the historical model and crop calendars devised using three previously proposed adaptation strategies. In contrast to studies using CGMs, our statistical yield model projected severe yield losses under all three strategies. Finally, we projected maize yields accounting for historical genetic variability for heat tolerance, discovering that it was insufficient to overcome the negative effects of projected warming. These projections are driven by greater heat stress exposure under all crop calendars and climate scenarios. Combined with analysis of the internal sensitivities of CGMs to temperature, our results suggest that current projections do not adequately account for the effects of increasing temperatures on maize yields. Climate adaptation in the US Midwest must utilize a richer set of strategies than phenological adaptation, including improvements to heat tolerance and crop diversification.