Global Change Biology最新文献

Ren, J., Wang, S., Chen, Y., Zhang, T., Zhuang, P., & Zhao, F. (2025). Cross-Scale Anthropogenic Threats Jointly Drive Declines in China's Estuarine Fish Assemblages Over the Past Half-Century. Global Change Biology, 31(10), e70566. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70566.

In the published version of this article, an error occurred in Figure 2a during figure preparation. One river was incorrectly labelled as the Yellow River, whereas it should have been labelled as the Yangtze River. This labelling error has been corrected in the revised figure. The figure caption remains unchanged. No analyses, numerical results, statistics, or interpretations in the text are affected by this correction. All other figures, tables, and statements in the manuscript remain valid.

We apologize for this error.

Phytoplankton are key components of ocean ecosystems that play a critical role in regulating Earth's climate. However, how climate-driven changes in light availability in the ocean will affect marine phytoplankton remains poorly understood. Here, we assess the impact of climate-induced shifts in the spectral quality of the underwater light field on the relative fitness of phytoplankton with distinct pigment traits using a global ecosystem model. We focus on Synechococcus pigment types, comparing light color specialists with a chromatic acclimator capable of adjusting its pigment composition. Under a high-emission scenario, the model simulation projected an increase in the average blue-to-green ratio across 76% of the ocean area by the end of the 21st century, while 24% of the simulated ocean showed a shift toward greener wavelengths. Regions characterized by larger seasonal variability in blue-to-green ratio values appeared to be reduced due to climate-driven spectral changes. We find that reduced variability in the ocean light field makes the chromatic acclimators' plasticity less advantageous, and this pigment type was most negatively affected. These findings highlight the potential of Synechococcus pigment types as functional bioindicators of ecosystem change and underscore the importance of incorporating functional diversity in global models to better predict phytoplankton responses to changing ocean conditions.

Globally, wetlands can sequester and store large amounts of soil carbon over the long term due to high primary productivity and slow decomposition. Yet centuries of drainage for agriculture and development have turned many of these carbon sinks into greenhouse gas (GHG) sources. Restoring degraded wetlands, particularly in peat-rich landscapes, is increasingly promoted as a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. However, the trajectory and timing of recovery remain uncertain, especially given the complex interplay among vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and GHG fluxes. In this study, we analyzed 44 site-years of continuous eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes from restored wetlands in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Our findings reveal substantial interannual variability in GHG exchange across sites, driven by differences in restoration design, water management, and vegetation establishment. While rapid vegetation growth, especially dense stands of macrophytes, can enhance CO₂ uptake, it often elevates CH₄ emissions and complicates predictions of when wetlands become net GHG sinks. Crucially, wetlands with delayed vegetation establishment due to high or inconsistent water levels (e.g., significant drawdown) remained persistent GHG sources, even years after restoration. Conversely, sites with tailored planting or natural and rapid recolonization exhibited earlier transitions to net sink status, including earlier shifts towards net negative radiative forcing since the restoration. The study highlights the importance of adaptive, site-specific restoration strategies and long-term monitoring to capture switchover dynamics from sources to sinks. As global investment in wetland restoration grows, our findings underscore the need to balance climate mitigation goals with ecological realities and the self-designing processes of vegetation succession.

Thirty-three years of climatic and commercial rice yield and quality data were used to estimate the impact of climate change, genetic gain, cultivar type, and harvest timing on main and ratoon crop grain yield and quality for the Texas Gulf Coast rice production region. Major climate change has occurred since 1991, with cumulative annual degree-days (°D) and atmospheric [CO₂] increasing 11.6% and 18.4%, respectively, and precipitation, irradiance, and relative humidity decreasing by 22.0%, 2.3%, and 3.3%, respectively. Daytime °D > 10°C and ≤ 30°C, daytime °D > 30°C, nighttime °D > 10°C, atmospheric [CO₂], irradiance, relative humidity, and precipitation significantly affect several main and ratoon crop traits, with increased nighttime °D > 10°C consistently reducing grain yield and two of the four measured grain quality traits. Hybrid rice outyields inbred cultivars and produces slightly higher total milling yield for both the main and ratoon crops but consistently produces lower head rice yield and more broken grain. Had the positive effect of increasing atmospheric [CO₂] on grain yield not been incorporated into the analyses, a large part of the increase in grain yield over time would have been incorrectly attributed to inbred and hybrid genetic gains. Several quality traits worsened the later the rice main crop was harvested, due to increased temperatures during grain fill for later produced rice, and possibly due to increased insect and disease pressures. The negative effects of climate change on rice grain quality can be partially mitigated by shifting seeding dates earlier and by focusing rice cultivar development on incorporating high temperature and high CO₂ resistance traits.

The Arctic is currently warming at up to four times the global average. Likewise, climate variability within and across seasons is predicted to markedly increase in the future. This may challenge organisms in these pristine environments, making it critically important to understand their thermal biology and evolutionary potential. For Arctic ectotherms in particular, thermal tolerance limits and responses to climate change are mostly unknown. Knowledge on this is urgently needed to enable prediction of climate change impacts on future distributions of biodiversity in these rapidly changing environments. Here, we provide data on upper and lower thermal limits of 93 Greenlandic species of insects, arachnids, and collembolans caught and tested in the field and identified using barcode sequencing. This represents ~8% of described terrestrial Greenlandic arthropod species. We found pronounced differences in heat and cold tolerance among species and a strong phylogenetic signal for both heat tolerance and thermal scope (difference between upper and lower thermal limits). We argue that this indicates a limited capacity for coping with increasing and more variable future temperatures through evolutionary adaptation. Further, we modelled future increases in microhabitat temperatures in our sampling area. We found that > 25% of the investigated species may periodically experience stressful high temperatures in the future. These results suggest that climate change will likely result in substantial changes in distributions and abundances of terrestrial arthropods in Southern Greenland.