<p>Water limits life on earth. And, in our increasingly drier world, this poses yet another challenge for terrestrial species, including our own. Species that live in arid environments have a suite of traits to allow them to source and retain the little available water to allow them to survive, grow and reproduce (Williams and Tieleman <span>2005</span>). Those that have not evolved in arid settings have just three options: adapt, move or perish. But even the adapters have limits to their tolerance, set by their “aridity niche” (Petit et al. <span>2025</span>).</p><p>This is an immediate challenge because a failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions would see, among other changes, a further 3% of humid environments transformed into drylands by the end of the 21st century (Vicente-Serrano et al. <span>2024</span>). Such expansion of arid landscapes opens up the question of which species are most vulnerable to this alteration; answering this question may offer important insights into conservation action in a changing world.</p><p>In their recent work Petit et al. (<span>2025</span>) draw attention to the response of passerine birds to increasingly arid conditions by focusing on species traits and investigating current and projected extinction risks. Passerines, or songbirds, are the most diverse order of birds with over circa 6000 species distributed across the entire world. Their global distribution, well documented trait composition (Tobias et al. <span>2022</span>) and range of sensitivity to aridity make them an excellent model system for studying the ecological consequences of a more arid world for animal life.</p><p>The authors relied on two aspects of the niche of each passerine species: its breadth and its position. The former speaks to species adaptability (or tolerance) for variation in aridity; the latter captures the preference of an organism for a specific climatic envelope. They predicted that passerines with a narrow aridity niche that prefer humid conditions would face a higher extinction risk, which is an intuitive hypothesis capturing both the breadth and position. But more than this, the authors predicted an interaction of these factors with a suite of specific traits such as body mass, clutch size, and migratory tendency.</p><p>To test these questions, the authors built generalized linear mixed models which accounted for phylogenetic relatedness. The Bayesian framework allowed the study to capture the uncertainty around predictors and interaction effects. Recently published work, including that of Tobias et al. (<span>2022</span>) contains a range of ecological and morphological data at the species level that gave the study a reliable source of predictor variables to draw on. The results of their analyses did indeed reveal increased extinction risk in species that prefer humid habitats. Further, they found that species that have a narrower niche breadth with respect to aridity are also more likely to go extinct. Moreover, the effe
水限制了地球上的生命。而且,在我们日益干旱的世界里,这对陆生物种构成了另一个挑战,包括我们自己。生活在干旱环境中的物种有一系列特征,使它们能够获取和保留少量可用的水,以使它们能够生存、生长和繁殖(Williams和Tieleman 2005)。那些没有在干旱环境中进化的生物只有三种选择:适应、迁移或灭亡。但即使是适应者,他们的容忍度也是有限的,这取决于他们的“干旱生态位”(Petit et al. 2025)。这是一个迫在眉睫的挑战,因为如果不能遏制温室气体排放,到21世纪末,将会有另外3%的潮湿环境转变为旱地(Vicente-Serrano et al. 2024)。干旱地区的扩张引发了一个问题:哪些物种最容易受到这种变化的影响?回答这个问题可能会为在不断变化的世界中采取保护行动提供重要的见解。在他们最近的工作中,Petit等人(2025)通过关注物种特征和调查当前和预计的灭绝风险,引起了人们对雀鸟对日益干旱条件的反应的关注。雀鸟或鸣禽是鸟类中最多样化的一种,大约有6000多种分布在全世界。它们的全球分布、有充分记录的性状组成(Tobias et al. 2022)和对干旱的敏感范围使它们成为研究更干旱世界对动物生活的生态后果的极好模型系统。作者根据每个雀形目物种的生态位的两个方面:宽度和位置。前者说明了物种对干旱变化的适应性(或耐受性);后者捕获了生物体对特定气候包络的偏好。他们预测,喜欢潮湿环境的狭窄干旱生态位的雀鸟将面临更高的灭绝风险,这是一个直观的假设,涵盖了广度和位置。但除此之外,作者还预测了这些因素与一系列特定特征的相互作用,如体重、窝卵大小和迁徙倾向。为了验证这些问题,作者建立了广义线性混合模型来解释系统发育相关性。贝叶斯框架使这项研究能够捕捉到预测因素和相互作用的不确定性。最近发表的工作,包括Tobias et al.(2022)的工作,包含了物种水平的一系列生态和形态数据,为研究提供了可靠的预测变量来源。他们的分析结果确实表明,喜欢潮湿栖息地的物种灭绝风险增加。此外,他们还发现,相对于干旱而言,生态位宽度较窄的物种也更有可能灭绝。此外,生态位位置的影响比宽度更能预测灭绝风险。在某些方面,互动甚至更有趣。例如,以物种占据的栖息地数量来衡量的栖息地宽度,与物种的干旱得分相互作用。这意味着,如果栖息地范围有限的鸟类也生活在潮湿的环境中,它们更有可能灭绝。同样,小窝、短世代、杂食性饮食和迁徙倾向都与干旱相互作用,增加了未来灭绝的可能性。通过对灭绝的两种观点,即当前和未来的灭绝风险,他们的分析可以识别出目前没有受到威胁但未来极有可能受到威胁的物种。此外,采用性状水平的方法可以将其应用于所有物种,无论我们是否对它们的生态、分布和威胁有很好的信息。他们的一些研究结果是违反直觉的,需要进一步调查,比如杂食性和短世代时间被视为风险因素,而这些特征通常被视为变化的缓冲(Chichorro et al. 2019)。杂食动物的多样化饮食通常提供了更多的选择,以及众所周知的长世代大型动物的灭绝(Johnson 2002)。除了增加更多的雀形目物种之外,下一步自然是探索Petit等人(2025)关于雀形目的结果是否适用于非雀形目(不包括在不同生态领域中活动的海鸟),或其他脊椎动物分类群对干旱的反应。当然,对于鸟类来说,性状数据库(Tobias et al. 2022)和最新的分布图(Lumbierres et al. 2022)可以在与本文相同的框架下进行研究。特别是,它可能有助于梳理出身体质量的影响,因为非雀形目中包含的物种比最大的雀形目重几个数量级。 由于蝙蝠的体重范围与雀形目动物大致相似,它们的特征多样性和广泛分布,蝙蝠也可能被证明是一个有用的系统发育上独特的volant比较组。事实上,已经对它们在全球干旱梯度上的性状变化进行了一些比较研究(Conenna et al. 2021)。从方法学的角度来看,未来的工作可以更多地利用贝叶斯框架,并将之前的信息纳入先验(McElreath 2018),而不是这里使用的扁平的、无信息的先验。最后,我们同意,通过确定使物种容易灭绝的具体特征,我们可以预测对包含它们的栖息地的更大规模的影响。例如,一个系统如何应对杂食性鸣禽的消失,而不是某个特定物种的消失?考虑到我们甚至没有最基本的生态信息的许多物种,更不用说对它们面临的威胁的完整描述了,这种特征方法将被证明对采取保护行动非常有益。事实上,保护有机会成本,因此,任何允许对生物多样性损失进行更有针对性的分类的方法都将非常有价值。作者声明无利益冲突。本文是Petit等人的特邀评论,https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70278.Data分享不适用于本文,因为本文没有生成或分析数据集。
{"title":"Traits That Predict Survival of Songbirds in a Drying World","authors":"Adam Kane, Ara Monadjem","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70677","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70677","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water limits life on earth. And, in our increasingly drier world, this poses yet another challenge for terrestrial species, including our own. Species that live in arid environments have a suite of traits to allow them to source and retain the little available water to allow them to survive, grow and reproduce (Williams and Tieleman <span>2005</span>). Those that have not evolved in arid settings have just three options: adapt, move or perish. But even the adapters have limits to their tolerance, set by their “aridity niche” (Petit et al. <span>2025</span>).</p><p>This is an immediate challenge because a failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions would see, among other changes, a further 3% of humid environments transformed into drylands by the end of the 21st century (Vicente-Serrano et al. <span>2024</span>). Such expansion of arid landscapes opens up the question of which species are most vulnerable to this alteration; answering this question may offer important insights into conservation action in a changing world.</p><p>In their recent work Petit et al. (<span>2025</span>) draw attention to the response of passerine birds to increasingly arid conditions by focusing on species traits and investigating current and projected extinction risks. Passerines, or songbirds, are the most diverse order of birds with over circa 6000 species distributed across the entire world. Their global distribution, well documented trait composition (Tobias et al. <span>2022</span>) and range of sensitivity to aridity make them an excellent model system for studying the ecological consequences of a more arid world for animal life.</p><p>The authors relied on two aspects of the niche of each passerine species: its breadth and its position. The former speaks to species adaptability (or tolerance) for variation in aridity; the latter captures the preference of an organism for a specific climatic envelope. They predicted that passerines with a narrow aridity niche that prefer humid conditions would face a higher extinction risk, which is an intuitive hypothesis capturing both the breadth and position. But more than this, the authors predicted an interaction of these factors with a suite of specific traits such as body mass, clutch size, and migratory tendency.</p><p>To test these questions, the authors built generalized linear mixed models which accounted for phylogenetic relatedness. The Bayesian framework allowed the study to capture the uncertainty around predictors and interaction effects. Recently published work, including that of Tobias et al. (<span>2022</span>) contains a range of ecological and morphological data at the species level that gave the study a reliable source of predictor variables to draw on. The results of their analyses did indeed reveal increased extinction risk in species that prefer humid habitats. Further, they found that species that have a narrower niche breadth with respect to aridity are also more likely to go extinct. Moreover, the effe","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70677","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}