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Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2000 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity (Cat. No.00CH37055)最新文献

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Developing and testing algorithms for stopping testing, screening, run-in of large systems or programs 开发和测试算法,用于停止大型系统或程序的测试、筛选和运行
V. Loll
When large hardware-software systems are run-in or an acceptance testing is made, a problem is when to stop the test and deliver/accept the system. The same problem exists when a large software program is tested with simulated operations data. Based on two theses from the Technical University of Denmark, the paper describes and evaluates 7 possible algorithms. Of these algorithms, the three most promising are tested with simulated data. 27 different systems are simulated, and 50 Monte Carlo simulations made on each system. The stop times generated by the algorithm is compared with the known perfect stop time. Of the three algorithms two is selected as good. These two algorithms are then tested on 10 sets of real data. The algorithms are tested with three different levels of confidence. The number of correct and wrong stop decisions are counted. The conclusion is that the Weibull algorithm with 90% confidence level takes the right decision in every one of the 10 cases.
当大型软硬件系统运行或进行验收测试时,问题是何时停止测试并交付/验收系统。在用模拟操作数据测试大型软件程序时也存在同样的问题。基于丹麦技术大学的两篇论文,本文描述并评估了7种可能的算法。在这些算法中,三种最有前途的算法用模拟数据进行了测试。模拟了27个不同的系统,并对每个系统进行了50次蒙特卡罗模拟。将算法生成的停止时间与已知的完美停止时间进行比较。在三种算法中,选择了两种算法。然后在10组真实数据上对这两种算法进行了测试。这些算法在三种不同的置信度下进行了测试。计数正确和错误的停止决定的数量。得出的结论是,置信水平为90%的威布尔算法在10种情况下都做出了正确的决策。
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引用次数: 2
Reliability in today's business environment 当今商业环境中的可靠性
D. Crowe
Embarking on an extensive program of reliability science will provide a company with a long-term value add proposition, setting it apart from it competitors, returning many times over the value of that investment. It must be noted that this process requires having a long-term commitment to build and support a world-class reliability operation, the fruits of which are often not seen in real time. The operation can be extensive in cost but the gains can be great. Engineers must always understand the return on investment.
开展广泛的可靠性科学计划将为公司提供长期的增值主张,使其与竞争对手区分开来,并获得数倍于投资价值的回报。必须指出的是,这一过程需要长期致力于建立和支持世界级的可靠性操作,而这些操作的成果通常无法实时看到。这种手术的成本可能很高,但收益可能很大。工程师必须始终了解投资的回报。
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引用次数: 0
Application of the NASA risk assessment tool to the evaluation of the Space Shuttle external tank re-welding process NASA风险评估工具在航天飞机外燃料箱再焊接过程评估中的应用
R. J. Mulvihill, F.M. Safie
The current Space Shuttle external tank design is called the super light weight tank (SLWT). A weight reduction of approximately 30% was achieved relative to the prior design called the light weight tank (LWT). The new NASA risk assessment tool, the quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS), was used to compare the risk of the two designs. The comparison includes consideration of the apparent reduction of the design safety factor for SLWT welds when a weld repair is required. The risk models for the structural failure accident scenario include five initiating events (IEs): (1) liquid oxygen (LO2) tank component failure; (2) liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank component failure; (3) LO2 tank weld failure; (4) LH2 tank weld failure; and (5) intertank failure. Although the risk results for the LH2 and LO2 tank welds for IEs 2 and 4 are higher for the SLWT vs. the LWT, the reverse is true for tank components IEs 1, 3 and 5. The SLWT has a slightly lower risk of structural failure. The impact of this difference is not significant to the total risk when the other six scenarios are also included.
目前的航天飞机外部燃料箱设计被称为超轻重量燃料箱(SLWT)。与之前设计的轻型油箱(LWT)相比,重量减轻了约30%。新的NASA风险评估工具,定量风险评估系统(QRAS),被用来比较两种设计的风险。当需要进行焊缝修复时,比较包括考虑SLWT焊缝设计安全系数的明显降低。结构失效事故情景的风险模型包括5个初始事件:(1)液氧罐部件失效;(2)液氢(LH2)罐部件失效;(3) LO2罐焊缝失效;(4) LH2罐焊缝失效;(5)罐间故障。虽然i2和i4的LH2和LO2罐焊接的风险结果对于SLWT来说比LWT更高,但对于i1、i3和i5的罐组件来说,情况正好相反。SLWT的结构失效风险稍低。当其他六种情况也包括在内时,这种差异对总风险的影响并不显著。
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引用次数: 2
AFR: problems of definition, calculation and measurement in a commercial environment AFR:商业环境下的定义、计算和测量问题
J. Elerath
Most commercial enterprises want a meaningful yet simple method for determining product reliability. "Average", "annual" or "annualized" failure rates are selected because of their apparent simplicity. All involve some sort of "failure rate" averaging over some period of time. All are abbreviated AFR even though there are no accepted industry standard definitions for these terms or the processes and conditions for their measurement. If the failure rate is not constant in time, creating an average can easily generate meaningless results. A number of businesses use the term "failure rate" but are in fact calculating probabilities or time independent percentages. A basic premise for this paper is that the true underlying product failure rates are not constant in time. This paper presents a detailed discussion of different ways commercial industries calculate simple failure rate based metrics. It identifies some ambiguities in the definitions and resultant inaccuracies. It will help the reliability pundit understand the mathematical considerations, making him more aware of potential problems. This paper should help generalists and managers understand that the AFR's they calculate may be significantly different than those calculated by their suppliers and customers. This can result in substantially different numbers and conclusions. Averaging instantaneous failure rates should be done only to smooth data collected from a distribution known to have a constant failure rate.
大多数商业企业都希望有一种有意义而又简单的方法来确定产品的可靠性。选择“平均”、“年度”或“年化”故障率是因为它们明显简单。所有这些都涉及某种“失败率”在一段时间内的平均值。所有这些都是缩写AFR,尽管这些术语或其测量的过程和条件没有公认的行业标准定义。如果失败率在时间上不是恒定的,那么创建一个平均值很容易产生无意义的结果。许多企业使用术语“失败率”,但实际上是计算概率或与时间无关的百分比。本文的一个基本前提是,真正的潜在产品故障率在时间上不是恒定的。本文详细讨论了商业行业计算简单故障率的不同方法。它指出了定义中的一些含糊之处和由此产生的不准确性。它将帮助可靠性专家理解数学考虑,使他更加意识到潜在的问题。本文应该帮助通才和管理者理解,他们计算的AFR可能与他们的供应商和客户计算的AFR有很大的不同。这可能导致截然不同的数字和结论。平均瞬时故障率只应用于平滑从已知具有恒定故障率的分布中收集的数据。
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引用次数: 20
Reliability test target development 可靠性测试目标开发
Ming-Wei Lu, R. Rudy
An automotive company's goal is to design and manufacture vehicles that will meet the needs and the expectations of the customers. It is essential for the design engineer to understand and take into account all sources of variation, which will be encountered by the system or component being developed. In this paper, the methods of derivation for the reliability test target requirement (at 95/sup th/ percentile customer usage severity level) from a given field target requirement (in C/100) is described. Formulas are derived under the assumption that both stress and strength are normally distributed, lognormally distributed, and Weibull distributed.
汽车公司的目标是设计和制造能够满足客户需求和期望的汽车。对于设计工程师来说,理解并考虑到正在开发的系统或组件将遇到的所有变异来源是至关重要的。在本文中,描述了从给定的领域目标需求(在C/100中)推导可靠性测试目标需求(在95/sup /百分位客户使用严重性级别)的方法。公式推导假设应力和强度均为正态分布、对数正态分布和威布尔分布。
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引用次数: 10
Specifying reliability in the disk drive industry: No more MTBF's 在磁盘驱动器行业中指定可靠性:不再有MTBF
J. Elerath
Great strides have been made in creating a more realistic method for specifying disk drive reliability in a competitive commercial environment. Mean time between (before) failure (MTBF) is misleading and causes great conflict between drive manufacturers and drive integrators. The single most prominent cause is that the failure distribution for disk drives is not exponential during the first year of product use. To rectify this problem, drive hazard rate, in the form of a stair-step approximation to the Weibull, has been instituted as a standard way of representing reliability in the disk drive industry. Although not problem free, this method for specifying reliability is more easily correlated to field experience and can be used to more accurately calculate the expected number of returns and spares needed.
在竞争激烈的商业环境中,为指定磁盘驱动器的可靠性创建更现实的方法已经取得了很大的进步。平均故障前间隔时间(MTBF)具有误导性,引起了驱动制造商和驱动集成商之间的巨大冲突。一个最突出的原因是,在产品使用的第一年,磁盘驱动器的故障分布不是指数型的。为了纠正这个问题,驱动器的危险率,在一个阶梯逼近威布尔的形式,已经制定了作为一个标准的方式来表示可靠性在磁盘驱动器行业。虽然不是没有问题,但这种指定可靠性的方法更容易与现场经验相关联,并可用于更准确地计算所需的退货和备件的预期数量。
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引用次数: 58
G-renewal process as a model for statistical warranty claim prediction g -续约过程作为统计保修索赔预测的模型
M. Kaminskiy, Vasiliy V. Krivtsov
A brief overview of the statistical aspects of warranty prediction is given as an introduction. The main discussion then focuses on warranty claim prediction for repairable products. Introduced by Kijima and Sumita (1986), a g-renewal process (GRP) can be considered as a model for major repair assumptions encountered in repairable product reliability analysis. These assumptions include "good-as-new", "same-as-old", the intermediate "better-than-old-but-worse-than-new", and "worse-than-old". A statistical procedure is developed for estimation of the GRP parameter, which is suggested to have engineering meaning of the effectiveness of the repair actions. A practical example of the GRP application in statistical warranty prediction is given as an illustration of the proposed estimation method. The paper arrives to the following conclusions: The GRP provides high flexibility in modeling real life failure occurrence processes by covering major repair assumptions encountered in practice. A Monte Carlo simulation can be considered as a method for statistical estimation of the GRP. Warranty claim prediction based on GRP provides a higher accuracy compared to the ORP or the NHPP.
简要概述保修预测的统计方面作为介绍。然后主要讨论可修复产品的保修索赔预测。由Kijima和Sumita(1986)提出的g更新过程(GRP)可以看作是可修产品可靠性分析中遇到的大修假设的模型。这些假设包括“与新一样好”、“与旧一样好”、中间假设“比旧的好,但比新的差”和“比旧的差”。提出了一种估算GRP参数的统计方法,该方法对修复行动的有效性具有工程意义。最后给出了GRP在统计质保期预测中的应用实例。本文得出以下结论:GRP涵盖了实际维修中遇到的主要假设,在模拟实际故障发生过程方面具有很高的灵活性。蒙特卡罗模拟可以看作是GRP的一种统计估计方法。与ORP或NHPP相比,基于GRP的保修索赔预测具有更高的准确性。
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引用次数: 48
A reliability development program for the Swedish industry 瑞典工业的可靠性发展计划
S. Vikman, A. Lonnqvist
A recent nationwide survey to the Swedish Engineering Industry disclosed that the understanding and use of reliability and safety methods by the small and medium sized companies on an average was distressingly low. Less than 30% of the smaller companies were familiar with reliability. In 1996, based on a survey and a following "out-line study", a new project was initiated by the Association of Swedish Engineering Industries, VI, and its Reliability Committee Te 5/2. The goal was to develop and document a program for "cooperative reliability development by small and medium-sized companies of the Swedish industrial sector". It will offer help to companies to initiate need based and local reliability work/activities. Starting point is an auditing/review of a company's existent process(es) and an audit of existing reliability status. Based on this, one will reach an understanding of in what way any "down-to-the-floor" simplified reliability-centered activity could be helpful. The final program will include necessary information and methods packages, training activities, expertise for managerial support and guidance during start-up and access to consultancy support where necessary for further implementation. This paper describes the project and its findings and illustrates the tools and methods developed for organizing individual down-to-the-floor reliability work programs by the industry.
最近对瑞典工程行业进行的全国调查显示,中小企业对可靠性和安全性方法的理解和使用程度平均很低。只有不到30%的小公司熟悉可靠性。1996年,基于一项调查和随后的“概要研究”,瑞典工程工业协会VI及其可靠性委员会Te 5/2发起了一个新项目。其目标是制定并记录一个“瑞典工业部门中小型公司合作可靠性发展”的方案。它将帮助公司启动基于需求和本地可靠性的工作/活动。起点是对公司现有流程和现有可靠性状态的审计/审查。在此基础上,人们将理解任何“彻底”简化的以可靠性为中心的活动在何种程度上是有帮助的。最后的方案将包括必要的资料和方法包、培训活动、管理支助的专门知识和启动期间的指导,并在进一步执行时获得必要的咨询支持。本文描述了该项目及其发现,并说明了业界为组织个别的下至地面可靠性工作计划而开发的工具和方法。
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引用次数: 0
Using benchmarking to introduce and improve reliability engineering 运用标杆管理引入和改进可靠性工程
M. Morelli
Benchmarking has been very instrumental to Otis Elevator Company's introduction and continual improvement of several key reliability engineering activities. The feasibility of using the highly accelerated life testing and highly accelerated stress screening methods for electronics' reliability testing were studied and implemented in part by benchmarking with other companies already practising the techniques and have been continually improved using another benchmarking arrangement. Failure modes and effects analysis methods were also studied by benchmarking with other companies and attending several "outside" training courses. Activities such as part burn-in and reliability prediction were eliminated after benchmarking and analyses were performed.
标杆管理对奥的斯电梯公司引进和持续改进几个关键的可靠性工程活动起到了非常重要的作用。使用高加速寿命测试和高加速应力筛选方法进行电子产品可靠性测试的可行性,部分是通过与其他已经采用该技术的公司进行基准测试来研究和实施的,并通过另一种基准测试安排不断改进。通过与其他公司对标和参加几次“外部”培训课程,研究失效模式和影响分析方法。在进行基准测试和分析后,消除了零件磨损和可靠性预测等活动。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability assessment from degradation data 基于退化数据的可靠性评估
V. Crk
The importance of degradation analysis as a method of assessing the reliability of highly reliable components and systems constantly increases due to the continuous efforts of the manufacturers to produce more and more reliable products. The presented methodology is an effective way to estimate the system's reliability by monitoring performance degradation. Its advantage is that the times to failure are not directly observed but the degradation that can be accurately measured. Consequently, the test time can be significantly shorter than if the times to failure are recorded.
由于制造商不断努力生产越来越多的可靠产品,退化分析作为一种评估高可靠性部件和系统可靠性的方法的重要性不断增加。该方法是一种通过监测系统性能退化来估计系统可靠性的有效方法。它的优点是不能直接观察到故障发生的时间,但可以精确地测量退化。因此,测试时间比记录故障发生的时间要短得多。
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引用次数: 99
期刊
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2000 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity (Cat. No.00CH37055)
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