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Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2000 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity (Cat. No.00CH37055)最新文献

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Application of the NASA risk assessment tool to the evaluation of the Space Shuttle external tank re-welding process NASA风险评估工具在航天飞机外燃料箱再焊接过程评估中的应用
R. J. Mulvihill, F.M. Safie
The current Space Shuttle external tank design is called the super light weight tank (SLWT). A weight reduction of approximately 30% was achieved relative to the prior design called the light weight tank (LWT). The new NASA risk assessment tool, the quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS), was used to compare the risk of the two designs. The comparison includes consideration of the apparent reduction of the design safety factor for SLWT welds when a weld repair is required. The risk models for the structural failure accident scenario include five initiating events (IEs): (1) liquid oxygen (LO2) tank component failure; (2) liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank component failure; (3) LO2 tank weld failure; (4) LH2 tank weld failure; and (5) intertank failure. Although the risk results for the LH2 and LO2 tank welds for IEs 2 and 4 are higher for the SLWT vs. the LWT, the reverse is true for tank components IEs 1, 3 and 5. The SLWT has a slightly lower risk of structural failure. The impact of this difference is not significant to the total risk when the other six scenarios are also included.
目前的航天飞机外部燃料箱设计被称为超轻重量燃料箱(SLWT)。与之前设计的轻型油箱(LWT)相比,重量减轻了约30%。新的NASA风险评估工具,定量风险评估系统(QRAS),被用来比较两种设计的风险。当需要进行焊缝修复时,比较包括考虑SLWT焊缝设计安全系数的明显降低。结构失效事故情景的风险模型包括5个初始事件:(1)液氧罐部件失效;(2)液氢(LH2)罐部件失效;(3) LO2罐焊缝失效;(4) LH2罐焊缝失效;(5)罐间故障。虽然i2和i4的LH2和LO2罐焊接的风险结果对于SLWT来说比LWT更高,但对于i1、i3和i5的罐组件来说,情况正好相反。SLWT的结构失效风险稍低。当其他六种情况也包括在内时,这种差异对总风险的影响并不显著。
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引用次数: 2
Modeling of common-mode failures in digital embedded systems 数字嵌入式系统的共模故障建模
L. M. Kaufman, S. Bhide, B.W. Johnson
This paper demonstrates how to accurately model the effects of common mode failures for digital embedded systems. By modeling the system's information flow, the integrated nature of the software and hardware components contained within such a system is represented. This modeling scheme allows for the system to be partitioned into error containment regions (ECRs), which are an extension of the fault containment region (FCR) concept. These ECRs are defined such that an error at their boundary results in system failure. If two or more ECRs produce errors at their boundaries and the underlying cause of these errors is identical, then the identification of common mode failures is achieved.
本文演示了如何准确地对数字嵌入式系统的共模故障影响进行建模。通过对系统的信息流进行建模,这样一个系统中包含的软件和硬件组件的集成性质就被表示出来了。该建模方案允许将系统划分为错误包含区域(ecr),这是故障包含区域(FCR)概念的扩展。这些ecr被定义为在其边界处出现错误将导致系统失效。如果两个或更多ecr在其边界处产生错误,并且这些错误的潜在原因相同,则可以实现对共模故障的识别。
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引用次数: 23
Enhancing the predictive performance of the Goel-Okumoto software reliability growth model 提高Goel-Okumoto软件可靠性增长模型的预测性能
P.A. Keiller, T. Mazzuchi
In this paper, enhancement of the performance of the Goel-Okumoto Reliability Growth model is investigated using various smoothing techniques. The method of parameter estimation for the model is the maximum likelihood method. The evaluation of the performance of the model is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the interval. The use of data analysis procedures utilizing the Laplace trend test are investigated. These methods test for reliability growth throughout the data and establish "windows" that censor early failure data and provide better model fits. The research showed conclusively that the data analysis procedures resulted in improvement in the models' predictive performance for 41 different sets of software failure data collected from software development labs in the United States and Europe.
本文研究了利用各种平滑技术增强Goel-Okumoto可靠性增长模型的性能。模型的参数估计方法是极大似然法。对模型性能的评价是通过预测未来时间间隔内的故障数量相对于该时间间隔内最终观察到的故障数量的相对误差来判断的。利用拉普拉斯趋势检验的数据分析程序的使用进行了研究。这些方法测试了整个数据的可靠性增长,并建立了“窗口”,以审查早期故障数据,并提供更好的模型拟合。研究最终表明,数据分析过程导致了模型预测性能的改进,这些预测性能来自美国和欧洲的软件开发实验室收集的41组不同的软件故障数据。
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引用次数: 11
Modeling and analysis for multiple stress-type accelerated life data 多应力型加速寿命数据建模与分析
A. Mettas
This paper describes a model for multiple stress-type accelerated life data. In addition, the use of an algorithm, which was specifically developed for this model is illustrated. The model is based on the widely known log-linear model (1990) and is formulated for the Weibull and lognormal distributions for a variety of censoring schemes using likelihood theory. An algorithm has been developed for the solution of this model, and implemented in a recently released software package, ALTA Pro/sup TM/, specific to accelerated life data analysis. The algorithm has been specifically designed to be very flexible and has the capability of simultaneously solving for up to eight different stress-types. The advantage of this formulation is that it combines in one model most of the known life-stress relationships for one or two types of stresses (such as the temperature-nonthermal model), as well as the multivariable proportional hazards model. This yields a single general likelihood function (for a given distribution) whose solution is independent of both the chosen life-stress relationship and the number of stress-types. In addition, this model allows for simultaneous analysis of continuous, categorical and indicator variables. The solution to this model provides the engineers with an opportunity to expand their selection of types of stresses and test conditions when testing products.
本文描述了多应力型加速寿命数据的一个模型。此外,还说明了专门为该模型开发的一种算法的使用。该模型基于广为人知的对数线性模型(1990),并使用似然理论为各种审查方案制定了威布尔分布和对数正态分布。为了解决这个模型,已经开发了一个算法,并在最近发布的软件包ALTA Pro/sup TM/中实现,该软件包专门用于加速寿命数据分析。该算法特别设计得非常灵活,能够同时求解多达8种不同的应力类型。这个公式的优点是,它在一个模型中结合了已知的一种或两种应力类型(如温度-非热模型)的大多数生命应力关系,以及多变量比例风险模型。这产生了一个单一的一般似然函数(对于给定的分布),其解与所选择的生活-压力关系和压力类型的数量无关。此外,该模型允许同时分析连续、分类和指标变量。该模型的解决方案为工程师提供了在测试产品时扩展其应力类型和测试条件选择的机会。
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引用次数: 31
Reliability in today's business environment 当今商业环境中的可靠性
D. Crowe
Embarking on an extensive program of reliability science will provide a company with a long-term value add proposition, setting it apart from it competitors, returning many times over the value of that investment. It must be noted that this process requires having a long-term commitment to build and support a world-class reliability operation, the fruits of which are often not seen in real time. The operation can be extensive in cost but the gains can be great. Engineers must always understand the return on investment.
开展广泛的可靠性科学计划将为公司提供长期的增值主张,使其与竞争对手区分开来,并获得数倍于投资价值的回报。必须指出的是,这一过程需要长期致力于建立和支持世界级的可靠性操作,而这些操作的成果通常无法实时看到。这种手术的成本可能很高,但收益可能很大。工程师必须始终了解投资的回报。
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引用次数: 0
Thermodynamic extensions of Miner's rule to chemical cells 米纳定律在化学细胞中的热力学扩展
A. Feinberg, A. Widom
Miner's rule of cumulative damage for materials undergoing stress-strain cycles allows for the prediction of the number of cycles of different strengths required before a material fails. Since Miner's rule has a thermodynamics basis, the rule should extend to thermodynamic work variables other than stress and strain. This point is illustrated in this work by applying the rule to chemical cells in a battery where the thermodynamic work variables are the electromotive force and the charge. Miner's rule of cumulative damage in chemical cells (undergoing voltage-charge and voltage-discharge cycles) allows for the prediction of the number of cycles of different strengths required before a battery fails.
经历应力-应变循环的材料的Miner累积损伤规则允许在材料失效之前预测不同强度所需的循环次数。由于Miner的规则有热力学基础,因此该规则应扩展到应力和应变以外的热力学功变量。这一点在本工作中通过将该规则应用于电池中的化学电池来说明,其中热力学功变量是电动势和电荷。化学电池(经历电压-充电和电压-放电循环)的Miner累积损伤规则允许在电池失效之前预测不同强度的循环次数。
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引用次数: 3
Bivariate failure modeling 二元失效模型
Sang-Chin Yang, J. Kobza, J. A. Nachlas
Issues related to the construction of bivariate reliability models and their application to maintenance planning are discussed. The distinction between bivariate failure models and models of first passage time to a failure threshold clarifies the motivation for the development of bivariate models. The authors present a taxonomy of model classes and identify two classes as their focus. The model classes examined here are those in which the two variables are related by a stochastic function and those in which the variables are simply correlated. Examples of the models of each of the two classes are defined. The general approach to model formulation is explained so that the reader may construct alternate forms. The sometimes subtle aspects of model analysis are discussed with particular emphasis on the interpretation of bivariate failure probabilities and on the calculating of numerical results. Associated issues related to the construction of renewal models that can be used in maintenance planning are also discussed. For each of the topics addressed, example calculations are provided or else the technical roadblocks to continuing analysis are identified. In the authors' view, the types of bivariate models described here provide a new way to study the reliability of equipment for which univariate measures are incomplete. Thus, a new area of reliability research is identified. The definitions they offer may be modified, and the approach to model formulation they present may be used to define other models. They raise several open questions concerning the model construction and analysis. Both conceptual definitions and analytical methods warrant further exploration.
讨论了二元可靠性模型的建立及其在维修计划中的应用。二元失效模型和到达失效阈值的首次通过时间模型之间的区别阐明了二元模型发展的动机。作者提出了模型类的分类法,并确定了两个类作为他们的重点。这里检查的模型类是那些两个变量由随机函数相关的模型类和那些变量简单相关的模型类。定义了这两个类的每个模型的示例。解释了模型公式的一般方法,以便读者可以构建替代形式。讨论了模型分析的一些微妙方面,特别强调了二元失效概率的解释和数值结果的计算。本文还讨论了可用于维修计划的更新模型构建的相关问题。对于所讨论的每个主题,都提供了示例计算,或者确定了继续分析的技术障碍。在作者看来,这里描述的二元模型类型为研究单变量测量不完整的设备可靠性提供了一种新的方法。因此,确定了可靠性研究的一个新领域。它们提供的定义可以被修改,并且它们提供的模型表述方法可以用于定义其他模型。他们提出了一些关于模型构建和分析的开放性问题。概念定义和分析方法都值得进一步探索。
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引用次数: 6
Optimal-maintenance modeling on finite time with technology replacement and changing repair costs 有限时间下技术更新和维修成本变化的最优维修建模
J. Rupe
The authors explore maintenance models for finite time missions. Motivated by real world applications, and models which are lacking in literature, they include exponential cost forms that allow for net present value analysis, and explore replacing obsolete equipment with new. In this paper, they demonstrate through mathematical modeling that: by using simple search methods, one can find optimal replacement intervals for systems under a general finite time mission; under Weibull hazard functions, one can express the optimal replacement rate simply; by allowing for special exponential cost function forms, one can find local cost minima for exponentially growing costs, or include the time value of money; for systems in use, one can monitor the marginal cost, and replace the system when this marginal cost equals the expected average cost for the replacing system; when replacing one technology with a new, there are conditions under which the optimal replacement cycles are completely interrelated, and other conditions where one can calculate one from an independent calculation of another; and in budget constrained times, use present value estimates such as the ones we provide. To apply optimal replacement planning in industry, one must consider finite time missions, net present value of costs, and replacing obsolete equipment with new technology.
作者探讨了有限时间任务的维护模型。受现实世界应用和文献中缺乏的模型的推动,它们包括允许净现值分析的指数成本形式,并探索用新设备替换过时设备。在本文中,他们通过数学建模证明:在一般有限时间任务下,用简单的搜索方法可以找到系统的最优替换间隔;在威布尔危险函数下,可以简单地表示最优替代率;通过允许特殊的指数成本函数形式,人们可以找到指数增长成本的局部成本最小值,或者包括货币的时间价值;对于正在使用的系统,人们可以监控边际成本,并在边际成本等于被替换系统的预期平均成本时进行替换;当用一种新技术替代一种技术时,在某些条件下,最佳替代周期是完全相互关联的,在其他条件下,人们可以通过对另一种技术的独立计算来计算其中一种;在预算有限的情况下,使用我们提供的现值估算。为了在工业中应用最优替换计划,必须考虑有限时间任务、净现值成本和用新技术替换过时设备。
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引用次数: 9
Developing and testing algorithms for stopping testing, screening, run-in of large systems or programs 开发和测试算法,用于停止大型系统或程序的测试、筛选和运行
V. Loll
When large hardware-software systems are run-in or an acceptance testing is made, a problem is when to stop the test and deliver/accept the system. The same problem exists when a large software program is tested with simulated operations data. Based on two theses from the Technical University of Denmark, the paper describes and evaluates 7 possible algorithms. Of these algorithms, the three most promising are tested with simulated data. 27 different systems are simulated, and 50 Monte Carlo simulations made on each system. The stop times generated by the algorithm is compared with the known perfect stop time. Of the three algorithms two is selected as good. These two algorithms are then tested on 10 sets of real data. The algorithms are tested with three different levels of confidence. The number of correct and wrong stop decisions are counted. The conclusion is that the Weibull algorithm with 90% confidence level takes the right decision in every one of the 10 cases.
当大型软硬件系统运行或进行验收测试时,问题是何时停止测试并交付/验收系统。在用模拟操作数据测试大型软件程序时也存在同样的问题。基于丹麦技术大学的两篇论文,本文描述并评估了7种可能的算法。在这些算法中,三种最有前途的算法用模拟数据进行了测试。模拟了27个不同的系统,并对每个系统进行了50次蒙特卡罗模拟。将算法生成的停止时间与已知的完美停止时间进行比较。在三种算法中,选择了两种算法。然后在10组真实数据上对这两种算法进行了测试。这些算法在三种不同的置信度下进行了测试。计数正确和错误的停止决定的数量。得出的结论是,置信水平为90%的威布尔算法在10种情况下都做出了正确的决策。
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引用次数: 2
Advisory board - tools for reliability and maintainability practitioners 咨询委员会。可靠性和可维护性从业人员的工具
W. Kuo, C. S. Carlson, F. D. Gregory, T. Mitrou, M. Shooman, G. Vassiliades
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2000 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity (Cat. No.00CH37055)
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