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Does Digital Economy Drive New Quality Productivity? Evidence From Dual Machine Learning Models 数字经济会推动新的高质量生产力吗?来自双机器学习模型的证据
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70042
Yuchen Jiang, Jiasen Sun

Advancing new quality productivity (NQP) is essential to deviate from the traditional paths of productive forces and economic growth. However, further research is needed to uncover effective development strategies for NQP. By applying dual machine learning (DML) on panel data for 282 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2022, this study examines how digital economy (DE) influences NQP. Several key findings emerge from the analysis. First, China's NQP has considerable potential for improvement, with the development of new factors and technologies being the main barriers. Second, DE positively influences the advancement of NQP as confirmed by various robustness checks. Third, DE promotes NQP by promoting green innovation, facilitating human resource agglomeration, and improving urban informatization levels. Fourth, the effects of DE on NQP are heterogeneous. From a regional heterogeneity perspective, DE aids NQP advancement across the eastern, central, and western regions, while from an economic heterogeneity perspective, the DE in the Yangtze River Delta, central Yangtze River, and Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei economic areas significantly drives NQP progress. Theoretically, this study innovatively applies the DML method to examine how DE influences NQP, thereby effectively addressing endogeneity concerns and deepening the present theoretical understanding of their mechanisms and heterogeneity. Practically, this study provides policy insights for governments to design differentiated DE strategies and promote regionally coordinated development.

推进新型质量生产力是摆脱传统生产力和经济增长路径的必然要求。然而,需要进一步的研究来发现有效的NQP发展策略。通过对2009年至2022年中国282个城市的面板数据应用双机器学习(DML),研究了数字经济(DE)对NQP的影响。分析得出了几个关键结论。第一,新要素、新技术的发展是主要障碍,中国的新质量计划还有很大的提升空间。其次,各种鲁棒性检验证实,DE正影响NQP的推进。第三,DE通过推动绿色创新、促进人力资源集聚和提高城市信息化水平来促进NQP。第四,DE对NQP的影响具有异质性。从区域异质性看,东部、中部和西部地区的经济发展水平对国家质量计划的推进具有促进作用;从经济异质性看,长三角、长江中部和京津冀经济区域的经济发展水平对国家质量计划的推进具有显著推动作用。理论上,本研究创新性地应用DML方法来研究DE如何影响NQP,从而有效地解决了内质性问题,深化了对其机制和异质性的现有理论认识。在实践上,本研究为各国政府设计差别化发展战略,促进区域协调发展提供了政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Industry Agglomeration and Firm Innovation: Theory and Evidence 数字产业集聚与企业创新:理论与证据
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70041
Yaru Yang, Yingming Zhu

With the rapid development of the digital economy, digital industry agglomeration has become a key driver of firm innovation. This study develops a theoretical framework distinguishing between complex innovation and simple innovation from the perspective of data elements and examines the mechanisms through which digital industry agglomeration affects innovation. Using panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2021, we find that digital industry agglomeration significantly promotes firms' overall innovation, as well as both complex innovation and simple innovation. Moreover, firms' absorptive capacity positively moderates this relationship, with a stronger effect on complex innovation than on simple innovation. The innovation-enhancing effect of digital industry agglomeration is more pronounced in regions with lower marketization, varies with the intensity of environmental regulation—promoting complex innovation under stricter regulation and simple innovation under looser regulation—and is stronger in regions with higher government intervention. In addition, digital industry agglomeration generates significant positive spatial spillovers that enhance innovation in neighboring regions. These findings provide new theoretical and empirical evidence on the relationship between digital industry agglomeration and firm innovation, highlighting the importance of fostering digital industry agglomeration and strengthening firms' absorptive capacity to stimulate innovation.

随着数字经济的快速发展,数字产业集聚已成为企业创新的重要驱动力。本文从数据要素的角度构建了区分复杂创新与简单创新的理论框架,并考察了数字产业集聚对创新的影响机制。利用2013 - 2021年中国a股上市公司的面板数据,我们发现数字产业集聚对企业的整体创新有显著的促进作用,对复杂创新和简单创新都有显著的促进作用。企业吸收能力正向调节这一关系,对复杂创新的影响强于对简单创新的影响。数字产业集聚对创新的促进作用在市场化程度较低的地区更为明显,随环境规制强度的变化而变化,在规制较严的地区促进复杂创新,在规制较松的地区促进简单创新,在政府干预程度较高的地区更强。此外,数字产业集聚产生了显著的正向空间溢出效应,促进了相邻区域的创新。这些发现为数字产业集聚与企业创新之间的关系提供了新的理论和实证证据,突出了培育数字产业集聚和增强企业吸收能力对促进创新的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact and Mechanisms of Smart City Policies in Promoting Enterprise Digital Transformation 智慧城市政策对企业数字化转型的影响及机制研究
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70033
Long Song, Ruiting Sun

Amid global economic restructuring, enterprise digital transformation has emerged as a critical strategy for enhancing competitiveness and upgrading industrial structures. As a major policy instrument to foster the digital economy, the effects of China's smart city pilot program on enterprise digital transformation remain insufficiently understood. Drawing on data from Chinese A-share listed firms over the period 2007–2024, this study employs a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) design to evaluate the policy's impact and to investigate its underlying mechanisms and heterogeneity. The findings indicate that the smart city initiative significantly accelerates enterprise digital transformation, primarily through three production factors: talent agglomeration, technological innovation, and capital support. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that the effects differ across firms, industries, institutional contexts, and regions. These results provide new insights for optimizing smart city policy design to promote more effective digital transformation of enterprises.

在全球经济结构调整的背景下,企业数字化转型已成为提升竞争力和产业结构升级的重要战略。作为促进数字经济的主要政策工具,中国智慧城市试点项目对企业数字化转型的影响仍未得到充分认识。本研究利用2007-2024年中国a股上市公司的数据,采用多期差异中差异(DID)设计来评估政策的影响,并探讨其潜在机制和异质性。研究结果表明,智慧城市倡议主要通过人才集聚、技术创新和资本支持三个生产要素显著加速企业数字化转型。异质性分析进一步揭示了企业、行业、制度背景和地区之间的影响差异。这些结果为优化智慧城市政策设计,促进企业更有效的数字化转型提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Overconfidence, Relative Performance Evaluation, and Managerial Delegation Under Quantity Competition: A Reversal Result 数量竞争下的过度自信、相对绩效评价与管理授权:反转结果
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70039
Jumpei Hamamura, Vinay Ramani

We revisit the managerial delegation game by considering the optimal weight placed on the rival's profit under relative performance evaluation with an overconfident manager. In economic studies, the effect of biased managers is investigated in several situations with the delegation game. In contrast to the classical studies where owners set a negative weight on rivals' profit under quantity competition, we demonstrate that the owner who hires an overconfident manager may set a positive weight to avoid excessive supply under specific conditions. Additionally, overconfidence improves consumer surplus and social welfare in specific economic environments by increasing the supplied quantities. Our results suggest the bright and dark sides of overconfident managers with relative performance evaluations.

我们通过考虑在一个过度自信的管理者的相对绩效评估下对手利润的最优权重来重新审视管理授权博弈。在经济学研究中,通过委托博弈研究了几种情况下管理者偏见的影响。与传统研究中在数量竞争条件下所有者对竞争对手的利润设置负权重不同,我们证明了在特定条件下,雇佣过度自信的管理者的所有者可能会设置正权重以避免供应过剩。此外,在特定的经济环境下,过度自信通过增加供给量来提高消费者剩余和社会福利。我们的研究结果揭示了相对绩效评估中过度自信管理者的光明面和阴暗面。
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引用次数: 0
Honesty, Deception, or Collusion? Quality Information Disclosure in Live Streaming Commerce 诚实,欺骗,还是共谋?直播商业中的质量信息披露
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70038
Chuan Zhao, Yao Li, Yixiang Zhang, Luyao Li, Kun Wang

This study employs a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework to analyze three scenarios of product quality disclosure: honest disclosure of product quality to both consumers and influencers; deceptive disclosure of the actual quality to both influencers and consumers by brand manufacturers; and collusion between brand manufacturers and influencers in misleading consumers about the true quality. By modeling these scenarios using a multistage decision-making game, equilibrium solutions for price, promotional effort, and penalties are derived. The findings indicate that low-quality brand manufacturers encounter both “honesty” and “collusion” situations when marketing through single channels, whether self-operated or via micro influencers. Mega influencers in hybrid channels can generate positive spillover effects that benefit self-operated live streams more than low-quality ones. When the power structure shifts, the operational strategy of truthfully disclosing product quality to consumers manifests a more distinct long-term stability advantage. This study makes a significant contribution to the selection of market channels under conditions of information asymmetry, while also exploring strategies to enhance spillover effects through the adoption of hybrid channels.

本研究采用Stackelberg博弈论框架分析了产品质量披露的三种情景:诚实地向消费者和影响者披露产品质量;品牌厂商对网红和消费者隐瞒实际质量;品牌厂商和网红勾结,误导消费者对产品的真实质量。通过使用多阶段决策博弈对这些场景进行建模,得出了价格、促销努力和惩罚的均衡解决方案。研究结果表明,低质量品牌制造商在通过单一渠道进行营销时,无论是自营还是通过微网红进行营销,都会遇到“诚实”和“勾结”的情况。混合频道的超级网红可以产生积极的溢出效应,这对自营直播比低质量直播更有利。当权力结构发生变化时,向消费者如实披露产品质量的经营策略表现出更为明显的长期稳定性优势。本研究对信息不对称条件下的市场渠道选择做出了重要贡献,同时也探索了通过采用混合渠道来增强溢出效应的策略。
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引用次数: 0
The Ride-Hailing and Pricing Strategy Decision With the Application of Autonomous Vehicles 基于自动驾驶汽车的网约车与定价策略决策
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70034
Bin Li, Meng Zhao, Ninghao Chen, Zhitang Li, Huijie Sun

The application of autonomous vehicles (AVs) offers a promising avenue to address the profitability challenges of ride-hailing platforms. However, in a mixed operational model combining human drivers (HDs) and AVs, the high operating costs of AVs raise concerns about their feasibility for large-scale commercial deployment and the design of optimal pricing strategies. To address these issues, this study develops a cooperative game-theoretic model involving three parties: a ride-hailing platform, an AV manufacturer, and a jointly established company. We first examine changes in platform profitability before and after AV application to identify the conditions under which adopting AVs becomes viable. We then compare the payoffs of all market participants under different pricing strategies to determine the optimal scheme that facilitates multiparty cooperation. The results indicate that introducing AVs can strengthen user-platform stickiness and reduce wage costs for HDs. However, the platform is incentivized to adopt AVs only when the operating cost coefficient is sufficiently low. Moreover, once this cost falls below a certain threshold, a premium pricing strategy yields higher platform profitability and enables a win–win–win outcome among the platform, joint company, and manufacturer. This study advances the literature on economic decision-making for AV deployment in the ride-hailing sector and offers theoretical and practical guidance for pricing strategies and partnership design in the era of intelligent mobility.

自动驾驶汽车(AVs)的应用为解决网约车平台的盈利挑战提供了一条有希望的途径。然而,在人类驾驶员和自动驾驶汽车的混合运营模式下,自动驾驶汽车的高运营成本引发了人们对其大规模商业部署可行性和最优定价策略设计的担忧。为了解决这些问题,本研究建立了一个涉及三方的合作博弈论模型:网约车平台、自动驾驶汽车制造商和合资公司。我们首先研究了自动驾驶汽车应用前后平台盈利能力的变化,以确定采用自动驾驶汽车可行的条件。然后,我们比较了不同定价策略下所有市场参与者的收益,以确定促进多方合作的最优方案。研究结果表明,引入自动驾驶汽车可以增强用户平台黏性,降低高分辨率用户的工资成本。然而,只有在运营成本系数足够低的情况下,平台才有动力采用自动驾驶汽车。此外,一旦该成本低于某一阈值,溢价定价策略将产生更高的平台盈利能力,并实现平台、合资公司和制造商之间的三赢结果。本研究推进了自动驾驶汽车在网约车领域部署的经济决策研究,为智能出行时代的定价策略和合作伙伴设计提供了理论和实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Adaptation Strategies to Power Outages on Business in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Energy Management Measure Make a Difference? 停电适应战略对撒哈拉以南非洲地区商业的影响:能源管理措施是否起作用?
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70040
Moustapha Mounmemi, André Dumas Tsambou

Power outages hinder economic development. Although their effects are less pronounced in developed countries, they are more severe in developing nations. Recent literature suggests, in addition to traditional strategies, the adoption of energy management measures as an adaptation strategy to power outages. This study evaluates, in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, the impact of adopting energy management measures while also considering traditional strategies such as backup generators. The analysis is based, on the one hand, on the 2023 World Bank Enterprise Survey dataset and, on the other hand, on the implementation of a Probit model to identify the determinants of adoption, as well as a 2SLS model to address endogeneity in impact measurement. The findings reveal that, although implementing energy management measures incurs costs, their adoption significantly increases business turnover and net income, particularly in the industrial sector. Conversely, although adopting a generator backup has a positive impact on turnover, it reduces net income in the service sector. Its impact on net income in the industrial sector is not even statistically significant. It is generally recognized in the ISO 50001 standard that, aside from optimizing energy consumption within businesses, the adoption of energy management measures also contributes to reducing the ecological footprint. By adopting this approach, businesses can enhance their resilience to power outages while simultaneously reducing their environmental impact.

停电阻碍了经济发展。虽然它们的影响在发达国家不太明显,但在发展中国家更为严重。最近的文献表明,除了传统策略外,采用能源管理措施作为停电的适应策略。本研究在撒哈拉以南非洲的背景下评估了采用能源管理措施的影响,同时也考虑了备用发电机等传统战略。分析一方面基于2023年世界银行企业调查数据集,另一方面基于Probit模型的实施,以确定采用的决定因素,以及2SLS模型,以解决影响测量中的内生性问题。调查结果显示,虽然实施能源管理措施会产生成本,但采用这些措施会显著增加营业额和净收入,特别是在工业部门。相反,虽然采用备用发电机对营业额有积极影响,但它减少了服务部门的净收入。它对工业部门净收入的影响甚至在统计上都不显著。ISO 50001标准普遍认为,除了优化企业内部的能源消耗外,采用能源管理措施也有助于减少生态足迹。通过采用这种方法,企业可以增强对停电的适应能力,同时减少对环境的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Commission and Promotion: How Does the E-Commerce Marketplace Develop a Resale Platform? 佣金与促销:电子商务市场如何发展转售平台?
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70037
Ziye Tong, Xuanming Bai

Numerous e-commerce marketplaces are establishing their own resale platforms. Some e-commerce marketplaces gain profits from resale transactions, while others use the resale platform as a traffic pool for their new products. For example, Taobao.com places many advertisements for new products on its self-built resale platform, Idle Fish, which is called a promotion strategy. Considering the interaction between the two sources of profit, this study develops an analytical model to investigate how the e-commerce marketplace with a self-built resale platform strategically sets resale transaction commission and promotion strategy to maximize profit. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the marketplace may set a low resale transaction commission when the sales price of new products is high when adopting no-promotion strategy, but it is completely reversed when the promotion strategy is used. Secondly, when the promotion strategy is adopted, the resale transactions will always decrease, but the market clearing price may increase. Lastly, the marketplace should adopt the promotion strategy when the sales price of new products is high, or the durability of products is low. Finally, we examine the impact of repurchase behaviour and the intrinsic impact of promotion on consumer valuation, the main conclusions derived from the baseline model remain valid under both extensions. This conclusion may explain why JD.com does not place any new product advertisements on its resale platform, Paipai.com, which focuses on the resale transactions of pricey products such as laptops and smart phones.

许多电子商务市场正在建立自己的转售平台。一些电子商务市场从转售交易中获利,而另一些则将转售平台作为其新产品的流量池。例如,淘宝网在其自建的转售平台闲鱼上投放了许多新产品的广告,这被称为促销策略。考虑到两种利润来源之间的相互作用,本研究建立了一个分析模型,探讨具有自建转售平台的电子商务市场如何策略性地设定转售交易佣金和促销策略以实现利润最大化。主要结论如下:首先,在不采用促销策略时,市场可能会在新产品的销售价格较高时设定较低的转售交易佣金,而在采用促销策略时则完全相反。其次,当采用促销策略时,转售交易总是会减少,但市场出清价格可能会增加。最后,当新产品的销售价格较高,或者产品的耐用性较低时,市场应该采取促销策略。最后,我们考察了再购买行为和促销对消费者评价的内在影响,从基线模型得出的主要结论在两种扩展下都是有效的。这一结论或许可以解释为什么京东没有在其转售平台拍拍网(Paipai.com)上投放任何新产品广告。拍拍网专注于笔记本电脑和智能手机等昂贵产品的转售交易。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Evolutionary Stability of Strategy Selection for Forest Ecological Benefit Compensation Standards 森林生态效益补偿标准策略选择的进化稳定性研究
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70036
Chuanjia Du, Chengjun Wang, Yangyang Yang

Forest ecological benefit compensation mechanisms are critical for aligning private landowner incentives with forest ecosystem service objectives. However, traditional area-based schemes in China neglect the additionality of the ecosystem services and fail to capture dynamic strategic interactions between policymakers and forest managers. To address this gap, this study develops a two-player evolutionary game model, in which the government chooses between equalization and compensation incentive compensation, whereas forest farmers decide whether to conserve. The model then analyzes the evolutionary stability of the strategy selection of the game players and explores the impacts of different parameter changes on the evolutionary stable strategy. The results show that the evolutionary stable states of the strategy selection of both parties in the game exhibit complexity due to different initial states. Increases in compensation fees, forest farmers' production revenue, and silvicultural capacity, as well as reductions in forest farmers' risk aversion coefficient, fairness preference coefficient, government free-riding coefficient, and information asymmetry coefficient, will promote the evolution of the system to the optimal stable equilibrium point. Notably, the forest farmers' conservation effort level under incentive compensation on system evolution presents a significant “inverted U-shaped” feature. This research provides a new analytical perspective and scientific basis for the optimal design of the forest ecological benefit compensation mechanism.

森林生态效益补偿机制是协调私人土地所有者激励与森林生态系统服务目标的关键。然而,中国传统的基于区域的方案忽视了生态系统服务的附加性,未能捕捉决策者和森林管理者之间的动态战略互动。为了解决这一问题,本文建立了一个二元进化博弈模型,即政府在均衡和激励补偿之间做出选择,而林农则决定是否保护。该模型分析了博弈参与者策略选择的进化稳定性,并探讨了不同参数变化对策略进化稳定性的影响。结果表明,博弈双方策略选择的进化稳定状态由于初始状态不同而表现出复杂性。补偿费用、林农生产收入和造林能力的增加,以及林农风险规避系数、公平偏好系数、政府搭便车系数和信息不对称系数的降低,将促进制度向最优稳定平衡点演化。值得注意的是,在制度演化的激励补偿下,林农的保护努力水平呈现出显著的“倒u型”特征。该研究为森林生态效益补偿机制的优化设计提供了新的分析视角和科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
International Economic Impact of the US Xinjiang Cotton Trade Restrictions: An Assessment Based on Global Multiregional Dynamic CGE Model 美国新疆棉花贸易限制的国际经济影响——基于全球多区域动态CGE模型的评估
IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1002/mde.70035
Lianbiao Cui, Guofeng Song, Xinghua Wang

While the United States has imposed trade restriction policies on Xinjiang cotton from China, few studies have examined their economic impacts. This research theoretically clarifies the mechanism through which these restrictions affect the economic system and utilizes a global multiregional, multisector dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess their international economic impacts. Results show that the restrictions adversely impact both the Chinese and US economic growth and welfare. Initially, China's real GDP decreased by 0.0232%–0.0629%, with social welfare deteriorating by $2433–6678 million, while the US real GDP declined by 0.0202%–0.0217%, with welfare losses of $3886–4347 million. Over time, as Chinese products are substituted in the US and European markets, China's economic losses and welfare deterioration tend to intensify, while the US situation gradually improves. The Southeast Asian countries may benefit from this trade conflict, showing some economic growth and welfare improvements. The impacts vary across Chinese industries, with the textile and apparel sectors most severely affected. This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the international macroeconomic impacts of the Xinjiang cotton trade restrictions, revealing the gains and losses across countries and providing valuable empirical evidence for understanding the economic impacts of such trade restrictions.

虽然美国对来自中国的新疆棉花实施了贸易限制政策,但很少有研究考察其经济影响。本研究从理论上阐明了这些限制影响经济系统的机制,并利用全球多区域、多部门动态可计算一般均衡模型定量评估了这些限制对国际经济的影响。结果表明,这些限制对中美两国的经济增长和福利都产生了不利影响。初期,中国实际GDP下降0.0232%-0.0629%,社会福利损失2433-6678万美元,而美国实际GDP下降0.0202%-0.0217%,福利损失3886 - 4.347亿美元。随着时间的推移,随着中国产品在美欧市场的替代,中国的经济损失和福利恶化趋于加剧,而美国的情况则逐渐好转。东南亚国家可能会从这场贸易冲突中受益,显示出一些经济增长和福利改善。中国各行业受到的影响各不相同,其中纺织和服装行业受到的影响最为严重。本文对新疆棉花贸易限制的国际宏观经济影响进行了定量评估,揭示了各国间的得失,为理解新疆棉花贸易限制的经济影响提供了宝贵的实证证据。
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引用次数: 0
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