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Fear of Labor Rigidities: The Role of Expectations on Employment Growth in Peru 对劳动力僵化的恐惧:秘鲁就业增长预期的作用
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2713012
G. Yamada, P. Lavado, Gonzalo Rivera
The impact of employment protection legislation has been thoroughly analyzed in varied contexts. Most studies highlight the potential harm of the legislation on labor outcomes, although evidence remains inconclusive. However, the literature has focused primarily on ex post impacts, analyzing the regulation’s effect after implementation. This article departs from that analysis to focus on anticipated or ex ante effects of labor regulation. More specifically, we study the role of firms’ expectations in future stricter labor legislation related to employment and income in Peru’s formal and informal labor market. To account for expectations, we used the number of news items related to the approval of a proposed law—the General Labor Law—to increase labor rigidities in Lima’s most important business newspaper. Using the Peruvian labor survey, we find a negative but decreasing relationship between firms’ expectations of a future stricter labor market and employment and average income. We also collect evidence that bigger news items and ones closer to the front page have a negative relationship with formal employment and income.
就业保护立法的影响已经在不同的背景下进行了深入的分析。大多数研究都强调了立法对劳动结果的潜在危害,尽管证据仍然不确定。然而,文献主要集中在事后影响,分析法规实施后的影响。本文将从这一分析出发,重点关注劳动法规的预期或事前影响。更具体地说,我们研究了企业预期在秘鲁正式和非正式劳动力市场中与就业和收入相关的未来更严格的劳动立法中的作用。为了说明预期,我们使用了与批准一项拟议法律有关的新闻项目的数量——《一般劳动法》——来增加利马最重要的商业报纸的劳工刚性。利用秘鲁劳动力调查,我们发现企业对未来更严格的劳动力市场的预期与就业和平均收入之间呈负向但递减的关系。我们还收集证据表明,更大的新闻和更接近头版的新闻与正式就业和收入呈负相关。
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引用次数: 1
An Unfulfilled Promise? Higher Education Quality and Professional Underemployment in Peru 一个未实现的承诺?秘鲁高等教育质量与专业就业不足
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2713011
G. Yamada, P. Lavado, Joan J Martinez
Despite the high growth of the Peruvian economy during the last decade, college graduates are facing increasing difficulties to find occupations that match their higher educational background, skills and educational investments. This scenario is embodied in the "professional underemployment" condition by which 4 out of 10 college graduates, by 2012, are overeducated, occupying non-professional and sub-paid positions. We propose that the deterioration in higher education quality has been a trigger for the increase in underemployment of university graduates, as an alternative to the literature that analyzes its causes related to labor demand. The main objective is to explore and quantify the extent to which higher education quality contributes to professional underemployment in Peru. Using data from the National Household Survey for the period 2004-2012 and the National University Census for the years 1996 and 2010, we propose a discrete choice model that measures the impact of college quality on the individual condition of underemployment in the long run. The source of variability for identifying this effect is the institutional and legal process of deregulation of universities initiated in the nineties. Our results indicate that the probability of being underemployed among graduates who attended "lower quality" universities increased from 0.19 to 0.30 beginning the college market deregulation. These estimation consider a twofold effect of deregulation, over the quality of university to which university applicants are prone to attend and in the probability of acquiring university education among individuals with lower academic skills.
尽管秘鲁经济在过去十年中高速增长,但大学毕业生越来越难以找到与其高等教育背景、技能和教育投资相匹配的职业。这种情况体现在“专业就业不足”的情况下,到2012年,每10个大学毕业生中就有4个受教育程度过高,从事非专业和低工资的工作。我们提出,高等教育质量的恶化是大学毕业生就业不足增加的一个触发因素,作为一种替代文献,分析其与劳动力需求相关的原因。主要目标是探索和量化高等教育质量对秘鲁专业就业不足的影响程度。利用2004-2012年全国家庭调查和1996年和2010年全国大学人口普查的数据,我们提出了一个离散选择模型,以衡量大学质量对长期就业不足的个人状况的影响。识别这种影响的可变性来源是90年代开始的大学放松管制的制度和法律程序。我们的研究结果表明,进入“低质量”大学的毕业生就业不足的概率从0.19上升到0.30。这些估计考虑了放松管制的双重影响,即大学申请者倾向于就读的大学的质量,以及学术技能较低的个人获得大学教育的可能性。
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引用次数: 3
La Economía De Colombia, Entre La Apertura Y El Extractivismo (Colombian Economy, between Openness and Extractivism) 哥伦比亚经济,在开放和榨取之间(哥伦比亚经济,在开放和榨取之间)
Pub Date : 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2707252
Álvaro Zerda Sarmiento
Spanish Abstract: Este documento presenta un análisis del comportamiento de la economía colombiana durante la última década y media, pero enmarcado en una perspectiva de largo plazo desde los años 90, cuando la dirigencia colombiana decidió darle un giro al patrón de acumulación, desde un modelo centrado en el mercado interno a uno enfocado hacia la competitividad en los mercados internacionales, siguiendo los dictados de las entidades multilaterales de crédito y de la academia neoliberal norteamericana. En particular el texto se centra en examinar las tendencias de la economía en los años 2000, marcadas por el énfasis en la apertura hacia mercados externos mediante la exportación de bienes primarios, fundamentalmente minero – energéticos. También se pasa revista a la coyuntura económica del país, que apunta hacia una tercera crisis de largo período, esta vez marcada por la crisis mundial del extractivismo. English Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the performance of the Colombian economy during the last fifteen years but in the framework of a long-term perspective from the 90s, when the Colombian authorities decided to change the accumulation pattern, from a model centered in domestic market, to one focused on competitiveness in international markets, following the dictates of multilateral credit institutions and the neoliberal North American Academy. In particular, the text focuses on examining the economic trends in 2000, characterized by the emphasis on opening up foreign markets by exporting commodities, mainly minerals and oil. It also reviews the recent economic situation of the country that points to a long period third crisis, this time marked by the extractivism global crisis.
[Abstract:本文分析哥伦比亚经济的行为在过去的五年里,一个半但陷害在一个长期观点自90年代,当哥伦比亚领导人决定给他一把示范模式积累,从注重国内市场一集中在国际市场竞争力,遵照命令科学院多边金融机构和美国的新自由主义。本文的主要目的是分析拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的经济趋势,重点是通过出口初级商品(主要是采矿和能源)向外部市场开放。它还回顾了该国的经济状况,这标志着第三次长期危机,这一次的标志是全球榨油危机。English Abstract: This paper代表an analysis of the performance of the派economy during the月fifteen but in the framework of from the年代的长期观点,when the当局决定to change the pattern, from a model centered in累积的国内市场,to one聚焦竞争力在国际市场,无论是下列多边dictates of credit and the North American Academy的新的自由。特别是,本文着重研究了2000年的经济趋势,其特点是强调通过出口商品(主要是矿物和石油)打开外国市场。它还回顾了该国最近的经济形势,这导致了长期的第三次危机,这次的标志是全球开采主义危机。
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引用次数: 0
Seudoturismo: El Turista Y Sus Falsas Prácticas Durante El Ejercicio De La Actividad Turística (Pseudo Tourism: The Tourist and His False Practices During the Tourism Activity) 伪旅游:游客及其在旅游活动中的虚假行为(伪旅游:游客及其在旅游活动中的虚假行为)
Pub Date : 2015-12-09 DOI: 10.18601/01207555.N17.07
L. F. Tribiño
Spanish Abstract: Este documento tiene por objetivo generar una reflexion en torno al turista y sus motivaciones para realizar sus practicas turisticas en determinados enclaves para el ocio y el turismo, donde las condiciones de los seres humanos presentan desequilibrios en terminos de necesidades basicas insatisfechas y dignidad humana. La presente investigacion se realiza con un enfoque cualitativo e inductivo; a partir de la revision de un enclave turistico localizado en el Parque Nacional Natural Corales del Rosario y de San Bernardo (Colombia) y de una revision conceptual, se comienza a construir una hipotesis, la cual abre nuevos espacios de reflexion y discusion acerca de lo que se podria denominar seudoturismo o turismo falso en relacion con una perspectiva social del turismo, las motivaciones de visita y la ausencia de reciprocidad y espacios de construccion en comunidad.English Abstract: This document aims to generate a reflection on the tourists and their motivations for tourism practices in certain places for leisure and tourism, where the conditions of the human population imbalances in terms of basic needs and human dignity. This research is carried out with a qualitative and inductive approach in which, after reviewing a tourist resort located in the National Park Corales del Rosario and San Bernardo, Colombia, and a conceptual review, it begins to build a hypothesis which opens new opportunities for reflection and discussion about what could be called pseudotourism or false tourism in relation to social tourism perspective, the motivations of access and the absence of reciprocity and community building spaces.
摘要:本文旨在反思游客及其在某些休闲和旅游飞地进行旅游实践的动机,在这些飞地中,人类的条件在基本需求未得到满足和人的尊严方面表现出不平衡。本研究采用定性和归纳的方法进行;起旅游飞地在订正的国家自然公园珊瑚del Rosario和圣伯纳德(哥伦比亚)和订正概念,开始修建一个reflexion hipotesis,打开新的空间和讨论关于可能将它称为“假seudoturismo或观光旅游在社会眼光关系对等,参观缺乏动机和肯尼亚的社区空间。英文摘要:本文件旨在反映游客及其在某些休闲和旅游场所实行旅游做法的动机,这些地方的人口状况在基本需求和人的尊严方面不平衡。对此的research is out with a定性和inductive approach in which, after reviewing旅游度假村located in the National Park珊瑚del Rosario圣伯纳德、哥伦比亚及《文摘》,开始to build a hypothesis which it opens新的机遇reflection和讨论可about what be called pseudotourism or false旅游业社会关于旅游perspective, the motivations of access and the absence of reciprocity and community building spaces。
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引用次数: 2
A Dainty Review of the Business and Economic History of Chile and Latin America 《智利和拉丁美洲商业和经济史简评》
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.4067/S0718-52862015000200001
B. Batiz-Lazo
This introductory piece provides some context to the special edition on business and economic history of Chile and Latin America. It also provides an introduction to better understanding research and method in business history while inviting for this field to be further developed in Chile.
这篇介绍性的文章为智利和拉丁美洲的商业和经济史特别版提供了一些背景。它还提供了一个介绍,以更好地理解研究和方法在商业史,同时邀请这一领域在智利得到进一步发展。
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引用次数: 4
Contracting and the Division of the Gains from Trade 契约与贸易收益的分配
Pub Date : 2015-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W21691
A. Bernard, Swati Dhingra
This paper examines the microstructure of import markets and the division of the gains from trade among consumers, importers and exporters. When exporters and importers transact through anonymous markets, double marginalization and business stealing among competing importers lead to lower profits. Trading parties can overcome these inefficiencies by investing in richer contractual arrangements such as bilateral contracts that eliminate double marginalization and joint contracts that also internalize business stealing. Introducing these contractual choices into a trade model with heterogeneous exporters and importers, we show that trade liberalization increases the incentive to engage in joint contracts, thus raising the profits of exporters and importers at the expense of consumer welfare. We examine the implications of the model for prices, quantities and exporter-importer matches in Colombian import markets before and after the US-Colombia free trade agreement. US exporters that started to enjoy duty-free access were more likely to increase their average price, decrease their quantity exported and reduce the number of import partners.
本文考察了进口市场的微观结构以及贸易收益在消费者、进口商和出口商之间的分配。当出口商和进口商通过匿名市场进行交易时,相互竞争的进口商之间的双重边缘化和商业窃取导致利润下降。贸易各方可以通过投资于更丰富的合同安排来克服这些效率低下的问题,例如消除双重边缘化的双边合同和同样将商业盗窃内在化的联合合同。将这些契约选择引入到具有异质出口商和进口商的贸易模型中,我们表明,贸易自由化增加了参与联合契约的动机,从而以牺牲消费者福利为代价提高了出口商和进口商的利润。我们研究了在美国-哥伦比亚自由贸易协定之前和之后哥伦比亚进口市场中价格,数量和出口商-进口商匹配模型的含义。开始享受免税待遇的美国出口商更有可能提高平均价格,减少出口数量,减少进口伙伴的数量。
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引用次数: 24
Is Chile a Role Model for Development? 智利是发展的榜样吗?
Pub Date : 2015-09-22 DOI: 10.18356/FD11329B-EN
R. Ffrench-Davis
The Chilean economy is usually highly praised as having been successful since the imposition of neo-liberal reforms under the dictatorship of general Pinochet in 1973. However, the four decades that have elapsed include sub-periods with quite different policy approaches and notably diverse outcomes; thus, there is neither one unique model nor only one outcome. The four decades’ growth is moderate, averaging 4.2 per cent per year: it averaged 2.9 per cent (meagre) during the 16 years of dictatorship and a good performance of 5.1 per cent during a quarter-century of democracy, albeit with a vigorous 7.1 per cent in the initial years (1990-98) and a modest 3.9 per cent in the last 15 years. Hence, sometimes, Chile has performed closer to becoming a “model” for development, and at other times the opposite or something in between. Focusing on three episodes (1973-81, 1990-95 and 2008-13), we explore the underlying explanatory variables and some lessons for building “a role model for development”.
自1973年皮诺切特将军独裁统治下实施新自由主义改革以来,智利经济通常被高度赞扬为取得了成功。然而,在过去的40年里,包括了不同政策方针和显著不同结果的不同时期;因此,既不存在唯一的模式,也不存在唯一的结果。这40年的增长是温和的,平均每年4.2%:在16年的独裁统治期间,平均增长率为2.9%(很低),在25年的民主统治期间,平均增长率为5.1%,尽管在最初几年(1990- 1998年)达到了7.1%的强劲增长,在过去15年里,增长率仅为3.9%。因此,有时智利的表现更接近于成为发展的“典范”,而有时则相反或介于两者之间。我们以三个时期(1973-81年、1990-95年和2008-13年)为重点,探讨了潜在的解释变量和建立“发展榜样”的一些经验教训。
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引用次数: 1
Multilatinas as Sources of New Research Insights: The Learning and Escape Drivers of International Expansion 跨国公司作为新研究见解的来源:学习和逃避国际扩张的驱动因素
Pub Date : 2015-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2934754
Alvaro Cuervo‐Cazurra
This study reviews the literature on multilatinas, Latin American multinationals, and provides suggestions for using these firms as a laboratory for extending exiting theories and models of the multinational. Analyses of their behavior tend to discuss their upgrading of capabilities and their patterns of internationalization. An additional opportunity exists to contribute to the literature by analyzing how some of the unique characteristics of Latin American countries affect the internationalization of firms. The review explains how four characteristics of their home countries (political uncertainty, violence, pro-market reforms and reversals, and geographic isolation) can result in the foreign expansion of firms, either because managerial learning of the home country conditions facilitates internationalization (the learning driver), or because the home country conditions induce internationalization to escape those conditions (the escape driver).
本研究回顾了有关拉丁美洲跨国公司的文献,并提出了将这些公司作为扩展现有跨国公司理论和模型的实验室的建议。分析其行为倾向于探讨其能力升级和国际化模式。通过分析拉丁美洲国家的一些独特特征如何影响公司的国际化,还有一个为文献做出贡献的机会。这篇综述解释了企业母国的四个特征(政治不确定性、暴力、亲市场改革和逆转以及地理隔离)是如何导致企业向国外扩张的,要么是因为对母国条件的管理学习促进了国际化(学习驱动因素),要么是因为母国条件促使国际化以逃避这些条件(逃避驱动因素)。
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引用次数: 139
Income Inequality in Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador: Different Reasons 玻利维亚、哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔的收入不平等:不同的原因
Pub Date : 2015-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2655159
M. Aristizábal-Ramírez, G. Canavire-Bacarreza, Michael Jetter
This paper analyzes the individual-level determinants of wage inequality for Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador from 2001 to 2010. Using a rich annual data set from surveys in all three countries, we analyze wages both using conventional wage regressions and decompositions of standard Gini indices. Although popular opinion and standard Gini indices suggest Colombia to exhibit the most unequal distribution of income among these countries, our results suggest otherwise. If one assumes educational attainment to form part of one's own responsibility the Colombian income distribution appears more equal than Bolivia's or Ecuador's. In 2010, educational achievement explains over 10.9 percent of the Gini score in Colombia, 6.3 percent in Ecuador, and a mere 2.4 percent in Bolivia. Our findings show that the sources of income inequality can differ substantially across countries. Respective policy prescriptions should differ accordingly.
本文分析了2001年至2010年玻利维亚、哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔工资不平等的个人层面决定因素。我们使用来自这三个国家的调查的丰富年度数据集,使用传统的工资回归和标准基尼指数的分解来分析工资。虽然民意和标准基尼指数表明哥伦比亚在这些国家中表现出最不平等的收入分配,但我们的结果却表明并非如此。如果一个人认为受教育程度是自己责任的一部分,那么哥伦比亚的收入分配似乎比玻利维亚或厄瓜多尔更平等。2010年,教育成就对哥伦比亚基尼系数的贡献率超过10.9%,厄瓜多尔为6.3%,玻利维亚仅为2.4%。我们的研究结果表明,各国收入不平等的来源可能存在很大差异。各自的政策处方应有所不同。
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引用次数: 4
On the Effects of Enforcement on Illegal Markets: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in Colombia 论对非法市场的执法效果:来自哥伦比亚准实验的证据
Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/WBER/LHV051
Daniel Mejía, P. Restrepo, S. Rozo
This paper studies the effects of enforcement on illegal behavior in the context of a large aerial spraying program designed to curb coca cultivation in Colombia. In 2006, the Colombian government pledged not to spray a 10 km band around the frontier with Ecuador due to diplomatic frictions arising from the possibly negative collateral effects of this policy on the Ecuadorian side of the border. This variation is used to estimate the effect of spraying on coca cultivation by regression discontinuity around the 10 km threshold and by conditional differences in differences. The results suggest that spraying one additional hectare reduces coca cultivation by 0.022 to 0.03 hectares; these effects are too small to make aerial spraying a cost-effective policy for reducing cocaine production in Colombia.
本文研究了在哥伦比亚旨在遏制古柯种植的大型空中喷洒计划的背景下,执法对非法行为的影响。2006年,哥伦比亚政府承诺不会在与厄瓜多尔边境周围喷洒10公里的隔离带,因为这一政策可能会对边境厄瓜多尔一侧产生负面的附带影响,从而引起外交摩擦。通过10公里阈值附近的回归不连续和差异中的条件差异,利用这一变化来估计喷洒对古柯种植的影响。结果表明,每增加一公顷喷洒可使古柯种植减少0.022 ~ 0.03公顷;这些影响太小,不足以使空中喷洒成为哥伦比亚减少可卡因生产的一项具有成本效益的政策。
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引用次数: 41
期刊
Latin American Economics eJournal
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