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Quantitative risk analysis for operational transfer processes of maritime pilots 海上引航员操作转移过程的定量风险分析
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-04 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2009133
Ahmet Lutfi Tunçel, E. Akyuz, O. Arslan
ABSTRACT Maritime pilots assist in manoeuvring ships arriving at or departing from a port. The most perilous part of their work is embarking and disembarking the vessel. The operational process of transferring maritime pilots is dangerous because the nature of the work involves risks such as falling from the pilot ladder into the water. Therefore, detailed risk analyses that consider potential operational failures are essential to improve pilot transfer safety. This paper presents a comprehensive risk analysis for the operational transfer processes of maritime pilots utilizing fuzzy extended fault tree analysis (FFTA). FFTA is a robust risk analysis method commonly used in the maritime industry. It is capable of predicting risk quantitatively by addressing the potential basic events of a system. In this study, the risk of encountering an accident during the transfer processes of maritime pilots is found to be 3.95E-03. The outcomes of this paper will provide valuable contributions to the safety of maritime pilots, who have suffered from substandard transfer process. The paper also highlights the failures and deficiencies with respect to operational processes in embarking/disembarking with the aim of minimizing the associated risks.
导航员协助操纵到达或离开港口的船舶。他们工作中最危险的部分是上下船。转移海上引航员的操作过程是危险的,因为这项工作的性质涉及从引航员梯上掉入水中等风险。因此,考虑潜在操作故障的详细风险分析对于提高飞行员转移安全至关重要。本文利用模糊扩展故障树分析(FFTA)对海上引航员操作转移过程进行了综合风险分析。FFTA是航运业常用的一种稳健的风险分析方法。它能够通过处理系统的潜在基本事件来定量地预测风险。在本研究中,发现海上引航员在转移过程中遇到事故的风险为3.95E-03。本文的研究结果将为海上引航员的安全提供有价值的贡献。本文还强调了登船/下船操作过程中的失败和缺陷,目的是尽量减少相关风险。
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引用次数: 4
Spatio-temporal evolution of the container port system along the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road 21世纪海上丝绸之路集装箱港口体系的时空演变
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017038
Xinfang Zhang, Jing Lu, Yan Peng
ABSTRACT Research on the spatio-temporal evolution of the port system along the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) can reveal the development law of ports. This study adopts the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, rank-size law, and an improved spatial and temporal correlation to investigate the spatial distribution and spatio-temporal correlation characteristics of container ports along the MSR during 2000–2019. The results show that 1) the distribution trends among port clusters have significant differences, and the gravity centre of the port system gradually shifts from Europe to Asia (market shares of European and Asian ports decline from 28.15% to 19.83% and increase from 63.80% to 66.78%, respectively); 2) the port system undergoes periodic ‘decentralisation–agglomeration–decentralisation’, and its structure gradually develops a ‘spindle’ or ‘olive’ shape; 3) the initial effect of MSR arises on the economic development of ports, and the spatial occupation ability of small- and medium-sized port clusters increases steadily; and 4) the spatial and temporal correlation gradually increases. The evolution of temporal correlation is more complicated with a bifractal structure in 2000–2010. This study can provide decision support for port development and thus clarifies the investment environment and construction of MSR.
研究21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线港口体系的时空演变,可以揭示港口的发展规律。本研究采用Herfindahl-Hirschman指数、秩-规模法和改进的时空相关方法,对2000-2019年沿线集装箱港口的空间分布和时空相关特征进行了研究。结果表明:1)港口集群间分布趋势差异显著,港口体系重心逐渐由欧洲向亚洲转移(欧洲和亚洲港口的市场份额分别从28.15%下降到19.83%和从63.80%上升到66.78%);②港口体系经历周期性的“分散-聚集-分散”,其结构逐渐形成“纺锤形”或“橄榄形”;③对港口经济发展的初始效应显现,中小港口集群的空间占用能力稳步提升;④时空相关性逐渐增强。2000-2010年时间相关性演化较为复杂,呈分岔结构。本研究可为港口发展提供决策支持,从而厘清港口的投资环境和建设。
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引用次数: 2
Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the shipping freight market: their impact on shipping investments 航运货运市场的供需冲击及其对航运投资的影响
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017041
N. Nomikos, Dimitris A. Tsouknidis
ABSTRACT We show that demand shocks have a greater effect on real freight rates compared to supply (fleet) shocks both historically and on impact. By contrast, supply shocks have a larger impact on net contracting activity when compared to demand shocks. This paper disentangles for the first time demand and supply shocks driving shipping freight markets and assesses their impact on net contracting activity, a key measure of shipping investments. In the process, we construct novel indices of demand for shipping transportation. Policy-related issues are quantified through drawing forecast scenarios for the response of real freight rates to unexpected demand and supply changes. (R41), (E32).
摘要我们发现,与供应(车队)冲击相比,需求冲击对实际运费的影响更大,无论是在历史上还是在影响上。相比之下,与需求冲击相比,供应冲击对净收缩活动的影响更大。本文首次理清了驱动航运货运市场的需求和供应冲击,并评估了它们对净承包活动的影响,净承包活动是衡量航运投资的关键指标。在此过程中,我们构建了新的航运需求指数。通过绘制实际运费对意外需求和供应变化的反应预测情景,对政策相关问题进行量化。(R41)、(E32)。
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引用次数: 5
A fleet deployment model to minimise the covering time of maritime rescue missions 舰队部署模式,以尽量减少海上救援任务的覆盖时间
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017042
Xinyuan Chen, Ran Yan, Shining Wu, Zhiyuan Liu, Haoyu Mo, Shuaian Wang
ABSTRACT This paper investigates a covering time minimisation problem of the maritime rescue missions that arise in practical rescue operations in the context of Hong Kong waters. In this problem, a fleet of heterogeneous vessels is deployed at marine police bases to deal with emergencies. Once an emergency rescue request is received, the marine police should send sufficient vessels to arrive at the incident site as soon as possible to provide critical medical service to the injured or the sick. A basic question to the rescue missions is that what is the minimal covering time that marine police could promise to arrive at any incident site. The shorter time the water district can be covered, the more likely lives and properties can be saved and the better the rescue service is. To address this problem, this paper formulates a mixed-integer programming model. Considering the expensive computational cost, a two-stage method is proposed. Extensive numerical experiments and a case study are performed to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm and illustrate how our model can be applied to solve practical problems. Our study contributes to the stream of research on maritime rescue problem that is gaining increasing concern in recent years.
摘要本文以香港水域为背景,研究实际救援行动中出现的海上救援任务覆盖时间最小化问题。在这个问题上,海警基地部署了一支由各种船只组成的舰队来处理紧急情况。一旦收到紧急救援请求,水警应派出足够的船只尽快抵达事故现场,为伤者或病人提供重要的医疗服务。救援任务的一个基本问题是,海警可以承诺到达任何事故现场的最短覆盖时间是多少。覆盖水域的时间越短,就越有可能挽救生命和财产,救援服务也就越好。为了解决这一问题,本文建立了一个混合整数规划模型。考虑到计算成本昂贵,提出了一种两阶段方法。大量的数值实验和案例研究证明了所提出算法的有效性,并说明了我们的模型如何应用于解决实际问题。我们的研究是近年来日益受到关注的海上救援问题研究的一部分。
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引用次数: 6
Port strategy and performance: empirical evidence from major container ports and implications for role of data analytics 港口战略与绩效:来自主要集装箱港口的经验证据及其对数据分析作用的影响
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-21 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017040
W. Yap, Joanne Ho
ABSTRACT Container ports operate in more challenging and volatile environments at present times. Events such as US-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic severely affect numerous container ports at various levels. Strategies pursued by container ports are key to port development and management amidst these challenges. Drawing on configuration theory, this research employs Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to investigate the relation between port strategies and container throughput. The research contributes to the literature by proposing an approach to account for complexity of the port sector and offers insights into strategies adopted by major container ports. The research further identifies 10 port strategies and proposed indicators that can represent the essence of these strategies. Being able to represent strategies in a quantitative format is important for strategy analysis and performance evaluation. Results reveal that major container ports employ a combination of strategies which address both the supply and demand-side aspects of the port business. Growing digitalization and digitization coupled with advancements in information capture, diagnostics capabilities and predictive abilities means a greater role for data analytics to influence container port strategy and performance. Implications for port managers, policy makers and researchers from the perspective of port policy and management are proposed.
目前,集装箱港口在更具挑战性和波动性的环境中运营。中美贸易紧张、新冠肺炎疫情等事件严重影响了众多不同级别的集装箱港口。在这些挑战中,集装箱港口所采取的战略是港口发展和管理的关键。本研究以配置理论为基础,运用模糊集定性比较分析法,探讨港口策略与集装箱吞吐量之间的关系。该研究通过提出一种方法来解释港口部门的复杂性,并提供对主要集装箱港口采用的战略的见解,从而为文献做出了贡献。该研究进一步确定了10个港口战略,并提出了可以代表这些战略本质的指标。能够以定量形式表示战略对于战略分析和绩效评估非常重要。结果表明,主要集装箱港口采用了解决港口业务供应和需求方面的战略组合。不断发展的数字化和数字化,加上信息捕获、诊断能力和预测能力的进步,意味着数据分析在影响集装箱港口战略和绩效方面发挥着更大的作用。从港口政策和管理的角度提出了对港口管理者、政策制定者和研究人员的启示。
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引用次数: 3
Knowledge mapping of seafarers’ health research: a bibliometric analysis 海员健康研究知识图谱的文献计量分析
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-21 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017039
Yujie Jiang, Zheng Wan, Jihong Chen, Zhichao Wang
ABSTRACT Since 1997, researchers have increasingly studied different aspects of seafarers’ health. However, no comprehensive review of the literature has been conducted. This study maps seafarers’ health research published from 1997 to 2020. A total of 120 publications were collected for bibliometric analysis. We find that three relatively large research teams have formed, which have mainly conducted cohort studies, questionnaire surveys, and maritime field studies. The primary research hotspots are comparison of differences in occupational health; disease causes and prevention; health risk factors and their interventions; and work health and safety. Changes in research hotspots can be summarised as a shift from seafarers’ physical health to physical and mental health, and, subsequently, a shift from health to work health and safety. Future research is likely to focus on the influence mechanism of seafarers’ stress on their health; the influence mechanism of the shift-work crisis on seafarers’ health and its interventions; whether seafarers’ health affects their retention; an overall framework for seafarers’ work safety and health; and the impact of natural gas emissions on seafarers’ health as well as related interventions. The results can be used to increase the understanding of seafarers’ health research and support further work in this field.
摘要自1997年以来,研究人员对海员健康的各个方面进行了越来越多的研究。然而,尚未对文献进行全面的综述。这项研究绘制了1997年至2020年发表的海员健康研究图。共收集了120份出版物进行文献计量分析。我们发现,已经形成了三个相对较大的研究团队,主要进行了队列研究、问卷调查和海事实地研究。主要研究热点是职业健康差异的比较;病因与预防;健康风险因素及其干预措施;以及工作健康和安全。研究热点的变化可以概括为从海员的身体健康向身心健康的转变,以及随后从健康向工作健康和安全的转变。未来的研究可能集中在海员压力对其健康的影响机制上;轮班工作危机对海员健康的影响机制及其干预措施;海员的健康状况是否影响其留用;海员工作安全和健康的总体框架;以及天然气排放对海员健康的影响以及相关干预措施。研究结果可用于增加对海员健康研究的了解,并支持该领域的进一步工作。
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引用次数: 2
Identification of China’s strategic transport passages in the context of the Belt and Road initiative “一带一路”倡议背景下中国战略交通通道的识别
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2017037
Daozheng Huang, S. Loughney, Jin Wang
ABSTRACT In compliance with the progress of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, there exists a notable and continuous increase in the reliance on maritime and onshore transportation. Therefore, unimpeded transportation has become China’s goal to ensure its security of trade and energy resources. This study proposes a useful framework for the quantitative assessment of key Strategic Transport Passages (STPs) to identify and rank China’s STPs in the context of the B&R. An evaluation hierarchy consisting of general criteria and sub-criteria is developed to evaluate the strategic value of alternative passages. The Evidential Reasoning method is employed to carry out the synthesis process with the Intelligent Decision System software package as it is effective when combining both qualitative and quantitative criteria of a complex nature. Finally, China’s top ten STPs and their ranking are determined by their associated strategic values. The Strait of Hormuz ranks first followed by the Strait of Malacca. Alashankou, located in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, is the only onshore passage among the top ten STPs. Though the Panama Canal is not involved with the B&R, it is still within the top ten STPs, due to its economic significance.
随着“一带一路”倡议的推进,对海上和陆上运输的依赖显著且持续增加。因此,畅通无阻的交通运输成为中国确保贸易和能源安全的目标。本研究提出了一个有用的框架,用于定量评估关键战略交通通道(stp),以便在“一带一路”背景下识别和排名中国的战略交通通道。建立了一个由总标准和子标准组成的评价层次来评价备选通道的战略价值。采用证据推理方法与智能决策系统软件包进行综合过程,因为它在结合复杂性质的定性和定量标准时是有效的。最后,中国十大stp及其排名是由其相关的战略价值决定的。霍尔木兹海峡排名第一,其次是马六甲海峡。阿拉山口位于中国新疆维吾尔自治区,是前十名中转站中唯一的陆上通道。虽然巴拿马运河没有参与“一带一路”,但由于其经济意义,它仍在十大stp之列。
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引用次数: 8
Dynamic interdependence and volatility spillovers across bunker fuel markets and shipping freight markets 船用燃料市场和航运货运市场的动态相互依存性和波动性溢出
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-09 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2005265
Xiaoxuan Li, T. Yip
ABSTRACT This study firstly explores dynamic volatility spillovers across bunker fuel markets in shipping industry. Volatilities in bunker markets are measured by using the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. And then bunker volatility spillovers across markets are studied. Our analysis provides an evidence of unidirectional volatility spillovers within Asian (European/American) region and across regions, and also documents that Singapore bunker market is a leading market in transmitting volatility within Asian region and across regions. Furthermore, we measure time-varying volatility spillover effects among Singapore bunker market and shipping freight markets, and between Singapore bunker spot and futures market. The results reveal information transmission and could assist market participants and stakeholders to adjust hedging strategies and minimize risks according to the interrelationships across markets.
摘要本文首先探讨了航运业燃油市场的动态波动溢出效应。采用动态条件相关GARCH模型对燃油市场的波动率进行了测度。然后研究了燃油价格波动对市场的溢出效应。我们的分析提供了亚洲(欧洲/美洲)地区和跨地区单向波动溢出的证据,并证明新加坡燃料市场是亚洲地区和跨地区传播波动的领先市场。此外,我们还测量了新加坡燃料市场与航运货运市场之间以及新加坡燃料现货市场与期货市场之间的时变波动溢出效应。研究结果揭示了信息传递,可以帮助市场参与者和利益相关者根据市场间的相互关系调整对冲策略,最大限度地降低风险。
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引用次数: 1
Spatial evolution model of port group hinterland from the perspective of intermodal transport 多式联运视角下的港口群腹地空间演化模型
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2009134
Guangyu Huang, Xuejun Feng, Mili Chen, Liupeng Jiang, Haipeng Wang, Suyang Wang
ABSTRACT The rapid development of the intermodal system has led to the intensification of the hinterland competition within the port group, and the spatial pattern of the hinterland has become discontinuous. Based on geographic information system technology, a spatial interaction model, in which the intermodal cost distance is computed by integrating the raster analysis method and network method, is developed to facilitate the examination of the spatial evolution process of the port group intermodal hinterland. Considering the example of the Gulf of Guinea port group in West Africa, the spatial evolution process of its five ports is simulated in three scenarios. The results indicate that intermodal transport drives the hinterland’s discontinuous development, and the direction and layout of the intermodal corridors significantly impact the hinterland competition of the port group. In most cases, the intermodal corridors can help realize connected ports to enhance the hinterland’s competitive advantage within the port group. However, adjacent ports may also benefit from this aspect under certain conditions, which implies the importance of port cooperation in planning collection and distribution corridors. The model and findings can theoretically support the decision-making of port investors and operators.
摘要多式联运系统的快速发展导致港口集团内部腹地竞争加剧,腹地的空间格局变得不连续。基于地理信息系统技术,将栅格分析法和网络法相结合,建立了多式联运成本距离的空间交互模型,以便于考察港口群多式联运腹地的空间演化过程。以西非几内亚湾港口群为例,对其五个港口的空间演变过程进行了三种情景模拟。研究结果表明,多式联运驱动了内陆地区的非连续发展,而多式联运走廊的方向和布局显著影响了港口集团的内陆竞争。在大多数情况下,多式联运走廊可以帮助实现港口的互联互通,以增强内陆地区在港口集团内的竞争优势。然而,在某些条件下,相邻港口也可能从这方面受益,这意味着港口合作在规划集疏运走廊方面的重要性。该模型和研究结果可以为港口投资者和运营商的决策提供理论支持。
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引用次数: 5
Exploring the impact of port-centric information integration on port performance: the case of Qingdao Port 探讨以港口为中心的信息集成对港口绩效的影响——以青岛港为例
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-11-28 DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2021.2007551
Bao Jiang, J. Haider, Jian Li, Yingli Wang, T. Yip, Yan Wang
ABSTRACT Digital technologies are dramatically reshaping the maritime industry and transforming how ports operate in a global transport system. To remain competitive and improve its productivity, a port needs to build its digital capability and become a ‘smart’ port. Despite its increasing importance, port digitalisation is largely under-researched. Our research explores how information integration afforded by the recent development of Port Centric ICT systems (PCIS) may impact port performance. A survey was conducted in Qingdao Port, the seventh-largest comprehensive port in the world. We adopted the partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique for analysis. Our model focuses on testing the mechanism of information integration on port performance among the port community members; that is, both internal information integration and external information integration and their direct and indirect impact on port performance. Our main contribution lies in that our study identifies two clear pathways for developing a port’s digitalisation processes to achieve competitive advantages: a) the mediated path, where port performance will improve if information integration is coupled with port community operational capability (PCOC); b) the direct path, where the innovative use of PCIS leads to radical ideas, new business models and transformative changes.
摘要数字技术正在极大地重塑海运业,改变港口在全球运输系统中的运营方式。为了保持竞争力和提高生产力,港口需要建立其数字化能力,成为一个“智能”港口。尽管港口数字化越来越重要,但在很大程度上研究不足。我们的研究探讨了以港口为中心的信息通信技术系统(PCIS)的最新发展所提供的信息集成如何影响港口性能。在世界第七大综合性港口青岛港进行了一项调查。我们采用偏最小二乘结构方程建模(PLS-SEM)技术进行分析。我们的模型侧重于测试港口社区成员之间关于港口绩效的信息整合机制;即内部信息集成和外部信息集成及其对港口绩效的直接和间接影响。我们的主要贡献在于,我们的研究确定了开发港口数字化流程以实现竞争优势的两条明确途径:a)中介途径,如果信息集成与港口社区运营能力相结合,港口绩效将得到改善;b) PCIS的创新使用带来了激进的想法、新的商业模式和变革。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Maritime Policy & Management
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