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No need for meat as most customers do not leave canteens on Veggie Days 不需要肉类,因为大多数顾客在素食日不会离开食堂
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00162-w
Christine Merk, Leonie P. Meissner, Amelie Griesoph, Stefan Hoffmann, Ulrich Schmidt, Katrin Rehdanz
Switching to a diet lower in red meat has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Using a unique time series of daily sales data from three German university canteens from 2017 to 2019, we analyse the effects of a monthly Veggie Day in a food-away-from-home context. We find that the temporary ban on meat dishes did not lead to a widespread boycott – as the heated public debates might have suggested. In our setting, a Veggie Day could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 66%. However, especially at the site with a higher share of meat eaters on regular days, up to 22% of customers bypassed the meat-free main dishes on Veggie Days and ate at other on-site alternatives where meat was available. However, total on-site sales did not decrease significantly. Students were less likely to switch to alternatives than staff and guests. A less stringent implementation of a Veggie Day where only beef dishes were removed from the menu, did not result in a significant shift to alternatives but could reduce emissions by up to 51%.
改用红肉含量较低的饮食有可能减少温室气体排放。我们利用德国三所大学食堂从 2017 年到 2019 年的每日销售数据的独特时间序列,分析了在离家就餐的情况下每月素食日的影响。我们发现,肉类菜肴的临时禁令并没有像激烈的公共辩论所暗示的那样导致广泛的抵制。在我们的环境中,素食日可以减少高达 66% 的温室气体排放。然而,特别是在平时肉食者比例较高的餐厅,多达 22% 的顾客在 "蔬食日 "绕过了无肉主菜,在其他有肉供应的餐厅就餐。然而,现场销售总额并没有明显下降。与员工和客人相比,学生们更倾向于改用其他替代品。如果素食日执行得不那么严格,只从菜单上撤下牛肉菜肴,也不会导致大幅转向替代品,但可以减少多达 51% 的排放量。
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引用次数: 0
Belief in divine (versus human) control of earth affects perceived threat of climate change 对神(而非人类)控制地球的信念影响对气候变化威胁的感知
Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00163-9
John V. Kane, Samuel L. Perry
Religious characteristics are predictive of Americans’ skepticism toward climate-related science and policy. Though attributable to a variety of interrelated factors, we propose specific religious beliefs help explain the dynamic in part. Specifically, we theorize that belief in divine (versus human) control over Earth’s climate likely engenders skepticism toward scientific claims that human behavior is leading Earth toward environmental crisis. Regression analyses with national survey data (N = 5321) demonstrate that believing “God would not allow humans to destroy the Earth” is associated with lower concern about climate change. Next, a pre-registered survey experiment (N = 3345) finds that manipulating belief in God’s—vis-à-vis humans’—control of Earth’s climate reduced the perceived severity of climate change and need for policy intervention. Our manipulation also reduced demand for climate-related information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. These results establish an important causal link between a religious belief and climate change attitudes in the U.S. public.
宗教特征可预测美国人对气候相关科学和政策的怀疑态度。尽管可归因于各种相互关联的因素,但我们认为特定的宗教信仰有助于部分解释这种动态。具体来说,我们推断,相信神(而非人类)控制地球气候可能会使人们对人类行为正将地球引向环境危机的科学说法持怀疑态度。利用全国调查数据(N = 5321)进行的回归分析表明,相信 "上帝不会允许人类破坏地球 "与较低的气候变化关注度相关。接下来,一项预先登记的调查实验(N = 3345)发现,操纵 "上帝--相对于人类--控制地球气候 "的信念会降低人们对气候变化严重性的感知以及对政策干预的需求。我们的操纵还减少了对美国国家海洋和大气协会提供的气候相关信息的需求。这些结果在美国公众的宗教信仰和气候变化态度之间建立了重要的因果联系。
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引用次数: 0
Between two worlds the scientist’s dilemma in climate activism 在两个世界之间,科学家在气候行动主义中的两难选择
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00161-x
Samuel Finnerty, Jared Piazza, Mark Levine
Environmental activism presents an ideological dilemma for environmentally concerned scientists, who must balance traditional scientific values of objectivity and impartiality with the urgency of the climate and ecological crisis. This paper presents a critical discursive analysis of interviews with 27 scientists from 11 countries. It details the linguistic repertoires scientists draw on and the subject positions adopted to manage this dilemma. We observed that scientists employ two strategies to reconcile their professional identities with their activism: redefining the scientist identity, and reframing the work that scientists do. The subject positions adopted broadly serve to legitimize action, such as arguing that activism as a scientist is objective and rational, or that being a scientist conveys a moral duty to advocate for scientific information. By analyzing how scientists negotiate conflicting identities and values, this research offers valuable insights into fostering informed decision-making and action in addressing urgent environmental challenges.
环境行动主义给关注环境的科学家带来了意识形态上的两难选择,他们必须在客观公正的传统科学价值观与气候和生态危机的紧迫性之间取得平衡。本文对来自 11 个国家的 27 位科学家的访谈进行了批判性的话语分析。它详细介绍了科学家们在处理这一两难境地时所使用的语言习惯和采取的主体立场。我们注意到,科学家采用了两种策略来协调其专业身份与行动主义:重新定义科学家身份,以及重新构建科学家所做的工作。所采取的主体立场从广义上讲是为了使行动合法化,例如认为作为科学家的行动主义是客观和理性的,或者认为作为科学家有道德责任倡导科学信息。通过分析科学家如何协商相互冲突的身份和价值观,本研究为促进应对紧迫环境挑战的知情决策和行动提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Improving adaptation assessment in the IPCC 改进政府间气候变化专门委员会的适应评估
Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00155-9
Johanna Nalau, Elisabeth Gilmore, Mark Howden
Assessing adaptation is one of the critical roles of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this Perspective, we focus on the what and the how that can guide this assessment for AR7: what knowledge is and should be assessed and how it is assessed. We then propose several opportunities for improvement, including accelerating adaptation assessment method innovation, increasing linkages between IPCC efforts and UNFCCC dialogues, and how author and data diversity can support a more decision- and policy-relevant assessment.
评估适应是政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的关键职责之一。在本《视角》中,我们将重点关注可以指导第七次评估报告评估工作的 "内容 "和 "方法":评估哪些知识、应该评估哪些知识以及如何评估这些知识。然后,我们提出了若干改进机会,包括加快适应评估方法创新、加强 IPCC 工作与《联合国气候变化框架公约》对话之间的联系,以及作者和数据多样性如何支持更具决策和政策相关性的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Global climate governance inequality unveiled through dynamic influence assessment 通过动态影响评估揭示全球气候治理的不平等
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00159-5
Di Wang, Yuzhu Fang
This study defines the concept of major and minor countries and establishes a multidimensional and dynamic assessment system to evaluate the influence of countries participating in global climate governance. We systematically calculate 45 indicators for 53 countries across 9 global climate negotiation interest groups over the seven years. Our findings indicate a significant difference in influence between major and minor countries. This gap is particularly significant regarding losses incurred from climate disasters, with a more than fourfold difference between the top 25% and the bottom 25% in the influence rankings. The influence-climate disaster Index Gini coefficient further indicates that climate governance is characterized by extreme inequality. We argue that this phenomenon arises because those with more decisive influence in global climate governance do not bear losses from climate disasters commensurate with their influence. Therefore, their willingness to participate in climate governance is lower than those who suffer greater consequences.
本研究界定了主要国家和次要国家的概念,并建立了多维动态评估体系,以评估参与全球气候治理的国家的影响力。我们系统计算了 9 个全球气候谈判利益集团的 53 个国家在这 7 年中的 45 项指标。我们的研究结果表明,主要国家和次要国家之间的影响力存在显著差异。这种差距在气候灾害造成的损失方面尤为明显,影响力排名前 25% 的国家与排名后 25% 的国家之间的差距超过四倍。影响力-气候灾害指数基尼系数进一步表明,气候治理的特点是极端不平等。我们认为,之所以会出现这种现象,是因为那些在全球气候治理中具有决定性影响力的国家并没有承担与其影响力相称的气候灾害损失。因此,他们参与气候治理的意愿低于那些承受更大后果的人。
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引用次数: 0
Public support for carbon pricing policies and revenue recycling options: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the survey literature 公众对碳定价政策和收入回收方案的支持:对调查文献的系统回顾和荟萃分析
Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00153-x
Farah Mohammadzadeh Valencia, Cornelia Mohren, Anjali Ramakrishnan, Marlene Merchert, Jan C. Minx, Jan Christoph Steckel
Since public support is critical for implementing carbon pricing policies, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the survey-based literature on change in public support for direct and indirect carbon pricing policies with and without revenue recycling options. Following a comprehensive and transparent machine-learning assisted screening of the literature, our dataset comprises 35 studies containing 70 surveys across 26 countries with over 100,000 respondents. We find that the introduction of any type of revenue recycling option increases public support for carbon pricing. Results from our meta-regression indicate that green spending (i.e. using revenues for climate-friendly projects) is the only revenue recycling option associated with a statistically significant increase in public support. Our findings moreover suggest that the effects may depend on which region the survey was carried out, highlighting the need for additional research in countries in the regions of Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
由于公众支持对于实施碳定价政策至关重要,我们开展了一项系统性回顾和荟萃分析,以研究基于调查的文献,探讨有无收入循环选项的直接和间接碳定价政策在公众支持方面的变化。在对文献进行全面、透明的机器学习辅助筛选后,我们的数据集包括 35 项研究,涉及 26 个国家的 70 项调查,受访者超过 10 万人。我们发现,引入任何类型的收入回收方案都会增加公众对碳定价的支持。我们的元回归结果表明,绿色支出(即将收入用于气候友好型项目)是唯一能在统计上显著提高公众支持率的收入循环选项。此外,我们的研究结果表明,这种影响可能取决于调查在哪个地区进行,因此需要在非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的国家开展更多研究。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging the link between pro-environmental behaviour and well-being to encourage sustainable lifestyle shifts 利用亲环境行为与福祉之间的联系,鼓励可持续生活方式的转变
Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00154-w
Michael M. Prinzing, Kate Laffan
Four studies investigated whether awareness of links between pro-environmental behaviour (PEB) and well-being can motivate sustainable lifestyle shifts. We find that most US adults believe most PEBs do not affect well-being. Yet, when people do expect such benefits, they tend to have more positive attitudes and intentions regarding PEBs and enact more PEBs. We also find that messages about how PEB can increase well-being consistently improved attitudes towards PEBs and made people more persuasive in their subsequent efforts to encourage others to live sustainably. These effects were especially pronounced among people who did not previously believe that PEB improves well-being. Effects on PEB intentions were inconsistent, however, and we found no effect on a revealed measure of PEB (i.e., seeking sustainability tips). Overall, these results underscore the importance of beliefs about PEBs’ impact on well-being and suggest that public messaging about that relationship might help motivate sustainable lifestyles.
四项研究调查了对亲环境行为(PEB)与幸福感之间联系的认识是否能够推动可持续生活方式的转变。我们发现,大多数美国成年人认为大多数亲环境行为不会影响幸福感。然而,当人们确实预期到这种益处时,他们往往会对 PEB 抱有更积极的态度和意向,并实施更多的 PEB。我们还发现,有关 PEB 如何提高幸福感的信息不断改善人们对 PEB 的态度,并使人们在随后鼓励他人可持续生活的努力中更具说服力。这些效果在以前不相信 PEB 能提高幸福感的人群中尤为明显。然而,对 PEB 意图的影响并不一致,我们发现对 PEB 的揭示测量(即寻求可持续发展提示)没有影响。总之,这些结果强调了有关 PEB 对幸福感影响的信念的重要性,并表明有关这种关系的公共信息可能有助于激励可持续的生活方式。
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引用次数: 0
Linking the treadmills of production and destruction to disproportionate carbon emissions 将生产和破坏的跑步机与不成比例的碳排放联系起来
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00156-8
Chad L. Smith, Gregory Hooks, Michael Lengefeld
Our case-oriented analysis of the drivers of climate change highlights the barriers and pathways to climate action. We employ Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), specifically fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), to trace the ways in which combinations of climate change drivers helps us develop a better understanding of climate change, with a special emphasis on nation-states making a disproportionate contribution to this problem. World Bank data is used to analyze 179 countries allowing us to explore how population, gross domestic product per capita (Treadmill of Production), and military spending as a percentage of GDP (Treadmill of Destruction) provide different recipes for understanding two climate change outcomes as they relate to UN Sustainable Development Goals (particularly SDGs 10 and 13). Our analysis yields new insights, illuminating two distinct recipes, thereby indicating that a focus on mechanisms provides new ways of understanding social processes and their connection to carbon emissions.
我们以案例为导向,对气候变化的驱动因素进行分析,突出了气候行动的障碍和途径。我们采用定性比较分析法(QCA),特别是模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA),追踪气候变化驱动因素的组合方式,帮助我们更好地理解气候变化,并特别强调民族国家对这一问题所做的不成比例的贡献。世界银行的数据被用于分析 179 个国家,使我们能够探索人口、人均国内生产总值("生产的阶梯")和军费开支占国内生产总值的百分比("破坏的阶梯")如何为理解与联合国可持续发展目标(尤其是可持续发展目标 10 和 13)相关的两种气候变化结果提供不同的方法。我们的分析产生了新的见解,揭示了两种不同的方法,从而表明对机制的关注为理解社会进程及其与碳排放的联系提供了新的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Underestimating demographic uncertainties in the synthesis process of the IPCC 在政府间气候变化专门委员会的综合过程中低估人口的不确定性
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00152-y
Sara Giarola, Leonardo Chiani, Laurent Drouet, Giacomo Marangoni, Francesco Nappo, Raya Muttarak, Massimo Tavoni
In this work, we systematically analyse the population projections used in the emissions scenario ensembles reviewed by the Working Group III in the latest three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We show that emissions scenarios span smaller demographic uncertainties than alternative estimates both for the world and for critical regions, such as South-East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and China. Furthermore, the range of demographic projections has consistently shrunk over subsequent reports, exposing a problematic convergence towards a single socio-economic pathway: the “middle path” or SSP2. We argue that the undersampling of population uncertainties limits the range of future emission trajectories and has implications for climate transition scenarios. Emissions scenarios with a wider set of assumptions about future population should be submitted to the IPCC. The methods utilised in this study inform the development of independent audit methods for the assessment of relevant uncertainty sources in IPCC databases.
在这项工作中,我们系统地分析了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第三工作组在最近三份报告中审查的排放情景组合中使用的人口预测。我们发现,无论是对全球还是对东南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲和中国等关键地区,排放情景的人口不确定性都小于其他估计值。此外,在随后的报告中,人口预测的范围持续缩小,暴露出向单一社会经济路径趋同的问题:"中间路径 "或 SSP2。我们认为,人口不确定性的取样不足限制了未来排放轨迹的范围,并对气候过渡情景产生了影响。应向 IPCC 提交具有更广泛未来人口假设的排放情景。本研究采用的方法为开发独立审计方法提供了信息,用于评估 IPCC 数据库中的相关不确定性来源。
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引用次数: 0
Dedicated climate ministries help to reduce carbon emissions 专门的气候部委有助于减少碳排放
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00147-9
Julian Limberg, Yves Steinebach, Jacob Nyrup
Several countries have introduced dedicated national climate ministries in the last two decades. However, we know little about the consequences of these ministries. We demonstrate that the introduction of climate ministries helps to reduce carbon emissions. A difference-in-differences analysis of a global sample of countries reveals robust and statistically significant evidence that introducing a dedicated climate ministry lowers carbon emissions substantially. At the same time, establishing such climate ministries does not significantly influence the introduction of new climate policies. This indicates that climate ministries primarily amplify climate action by improving the effectiveness of the governmental measures taken rather than by increasing the number of climate policies themselves.
在过去二十年中,一些国家设立了专门的国家气候部。然而,我们对这些部委的影响知之甚少。我们证明,设立气候部有助于减少碳排放。对全球国家样本进行的差异分析显示,引入专门的气候部会可大幅降低碳排放量,这一证据是有力的,且在统计上具有显著意义。同时,设立此类气候部委并不会显著影响新气候政策的出台。这表明,气候部主要是通过提高政府措施的有效性来扩大气候行动,而不是通过增加气候政策本身的数量。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
npj Climate Action
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