Pub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00705-7
Wenju Cai, Chris Reason, Elsa Mohino, Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Johan Malherbe, Agus Santoso, Xichen Li, Hector Chikoore, Hyacinth Nnamchi, Michael J. McPhaden, Noel Keenlyside, Andrea S. Taschetto, Lixin Wu, Benjamin Ng, Yi Liu, Tao Geng, Kai Yang, Guojian Wang, Fan Jia, Xiaopei Lin, Shujun Li, Yun Yang, Junkai Wang, Li Zhang, Ziguang Li, Pokam Wilfried, Liming Zhou, Xuebin Zhang, Francois Engelbrecht, Zhuoran Li, Joseph N. Mutemi
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — describing shifts between warm El Niño and cold La Niña phases — has a substantial effect on the global climate. In this Review, we outline the mechanisms and climate impacts of ENSO in Africa, focusing on rainfall. ENSO’s influence varies strongly by season, region, phase, event and decade, highlighting complex dynamics and asymmetries. Although difficult to generalize, key characteristics include: anomalies across the Sahel in July–September, related to the tropospheric temperature mechanism; a strong dipole in anomalies between eastern and southern Africa during October–December (the short rain reason) and December–February, linked to interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Indian Ocean Basin mode, respectively; and anomalies over southern Africa (with possible indications of opposite anomalies over East Africa) during March–May (the long rain season), associated with continuation of the Indian Ocean Basin mode. These teleconnections tend to be most pronounced for East Pacific El Niño and Central Pacific La Niña events, as well as during decades when interbasin interactions are strongest. Although challenging to simulate, climate models suggest that these impacts will strengthen in the future, manifesting as an increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet extremes. Given the reliance of much of Africa on rain-fed agriculture, resolving these relationships is vital, necessitating realistic simulation of regional circulations, ENSO and its interbasin interactions. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has substantial impacts on the global climate. This Review outlines ENSO relationships with Africa, outlining their dynamics, impacts on precipitation and projected changes in the future.
{"title":"Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Africa","authors":"Wenju Cai, Chris Reason, Elsa Mohino, Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Johan Malherbe, Agus Santoso, Xichen Li, Hector Chikoore, Hyacinth Nnamchi, Michael J. McPhaden, Noel Keenlyside, Andrea S. Taschetto, Lixin Wu, Benjamin Ng, Yi Liu, Tao Geng, Kai Yang, Guojian Wang, Fan Jia, Xiaopei Lin, Shujun Li, Yun Yang, Junkai Wang, Li Zhang, Ziguang Li, Pokam Wilfried, Liming Zhou, Xuebin Zhang, Francois Engelbrecht, Zhuoran Li, Joseph N. Mutemi","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00705-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00705-7","url":null,"abstract":"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — describing shifts between warm El Niño and cold La Niña phases — has a substantial effect on the global climate. In this Review, we outline the mechanisms and climate impacts of ENSO in Africa, focusing on rainfall. ENSO’s influence varies strongly by season, region, phase, event and decade, highlighting complex dynamics and asymmetries. Although difficult to generalize, key characteristics include: anomalies across the Sahel in July–September, related to the tropospheric temperature mechanism; a strong dipole in anomalies between eastern and southern Africa during October–December (the short rain reason) and December–February, linked to interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Indian Ocean Basin mode, respectively; and anomalies over southern Africa (with possible indications of opposite anomalies over East Africa) during March–May (the long rain season), associated with continuation of the Indian Ocean Basin mode. These teleconnections tend to be most pronounced for East Pacific El Niño and Central Pacific La Niña events, as well as during decades when interbasin interactions are strongest. Although challenging to simulate, climate models suggest that these impacts will strengthen in the future, manifesting as an increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet extremes. Given the reliance of much of Africa on rain-fed agriculture, resolving these relationships is vital, necessitating realistic simulation of regional circulations, ENSO and its interbasin interactions. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has substantial impacts on the global climate. This Review outlines ENSO relationships with Africa, outlining their dynamics, impacts on precipitation and projected changes in the future.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 8","pages":"503-520"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00702-w
Michael E. Pasyanos, Christoph Pilger, Ruijia Wang (, )
Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. In this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine. Forensic event analysis is used to investigate non-nuclear, man-made, explosion-like accidents and unanticipated events. This Technical Review outlines the techniques used to monitor and analyse the seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic signals produced by such events in underground, near-surface, atmospheric and underwater domains.
{"title":"Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring","authors":"Michael E. Pasyanos, Christoph Pilger, Ruijia Wang \u0000 (, )","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00702-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00702-w","url":null,"abstract":"Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. In this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine. Forensic event analysis is used to investigate non-nuclear, man-made, explosion-like accidents and unanticipated events. This Technical Review outlines the techniques used to monitor and analyse the seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic signals produced by such events in underground, near-surface, atmospheric and underwater domains.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 8","pages":"521-534"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00703-9
Xiaoming Lu, Xiangyu Zheng, Eryuan Liang, Shilong Piao, Flurin Babst, Grant P. Elliott, Shalik Ram Sigdel, Tao Wang, Yafeng Wang, Xiaoxia Li, Shan Gao, Lin Zhang, Jian Sun, Jiangrong Li, Haifeng Zhu, Sergio Rossi, Josep Peñuelas, J. Julio Camarero
Alpine treelines and shrublines are highly sensitive to environmental change. In this Review, we summarize their global patterns and trends, underlying mechanisms and impacts. Continental alpine treeline and shrubline elevations are highest at mid-latitudes, declining towards the Equator and poles. Shrublines are typically 335 m higher than collocated treelines owing to morphological differences. The mass-elevation effect, whereby larger mountain masses retain more heat, largely governs this distribution. Indeed, temperature is a key factor determining ecotone elevation. For example, tree growth near the alpine treeline begins at 0.9 °C and continues as long as the average temperature during the growing season exceeds 6.4 °C for a minimum of 94 days. Water availability is also important, with 51% of treelines exposed to drought stress. Overall, between 1901 and 2021, alpine treelines and shrublines have shifted to higher elevations at an average rate of 0.40 and 0.49 m yr−1, respectively, with shift rates at high-latitude sites exceeding those at lower latitudes. Species interactions (either through facilitation or competition) and disturbances complicate these trends. As a result, treeline shift lags behind climate warming by at least 50 years, with drought stress, species interactions and disturbance becoming increasingly important as warming continues. The consequences of treeline and shrubline advance include reduced soil carbon storage, biodiversity decline, and reduced surface albedo. Future research should prioritize extended field monitoring to enhance projection accuracy of ecotone dynamics and associated climate feedbacks across local to global scales. Alpine treelines and shrublines are advancing to higher elevations in the context of warming. This Review synthesizes global trends in ecotone dynamics, explores the underlying drivers and mechanisms, and considers the consequences to alpine regions.
高山树木线和灌木带对环境变化高度敏感。本文综述了气候变化的全球格局和趋势、潜在机制和影响。大陆高寒树线和灌丛海拔在中纬度地区最高，向赤道和两极下降。由于形态上的差异，灌木线通常比并列的树线高335米。质量-海拔效应，即较大的山体保留更多的热量，在很大程度上控制了这种分布。事实上，温度是决定过渡带高度的关键因素。例如，高山树线附近的树木生长始于0.9°C，只要生长季节的平均温度超过6.4°C并持续至少94天，水的可用性也很重要，51%的树线面临干旱压力。总体而言，1901年至2021年间，高山树木线和灌木林以平均0.40 m和0.49 m /年的速率分别向高海拔地区迁移，高纬度地区的迁移速率超过低纬度地区。物种相互作用（通过促进或竞争）和干扰使这些趋势复杂化。因此，随着气候变暖的持续，干旱压力、物种相互作用和干扰变得越来越重要，树木线的变化比气候变暖至少滞后50年。林带和灌丛带的扩张导致土壤碳储量减少、生物多样性下降和地表反照率降低。未来的研究应优先考虑扩展的野外监测，以提高交错带动态和相关气候反馈在局地到全球尺度上的预测精度。在气候变暖的背景下，高山树木线和灌木带正在向更高的海拔移动。这篇综述综合了全球交变带动态的趋势，探讨了潜在的驱动因素和机制，并考虑了对高寒地区的影响。
{"title":"Patterns, dynamics and drivers of alpine treelines and shrublines","authors":"Xiaoming Lu, Xiangyu Zheng, Eryuan Liang, Shilong Piao, Flurin Babst, Grant P. Elliott, Shalik Ram Sigdel, Tao Wang, Yafeng Wang, Xiaoxia Li, Shan Gao, Lin Zhang, Jian Sun, Jiangrong Li, Haifeng Zhu, Sergio Rossi, Josep Peñuelas, J. Julio Camarero","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00703-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00703-9","url":null,"abstract":"Alpine treelines and shrublines are highly sensitive to environmental change. In this Review, we summarize their global patterns and trends, underlying mechanisms and impacts. Continental alpine treeline and shrubline elevations are highest at mid-latitudes, declining towards the Equator and poles. Shrublines are typically 335 m higher than collocated treelines owing to morphological differences. The mass-elevation effect, whereby larger mountain masses retain more heat, largely governs this distribution. Indeed, temperature is a key factor determining ecotone elevation. For example, tree growth near the alpine treeline begins at 0.9 °C and continues as long as the average temperature during the growing season exceeds 6.4 °C for a minimum of 94 days. Water availability is also important, with 51% of treelines exposed to drought stress. Overall, between 1901 and 2021, alpine treelines and shrublines have shifted to higher elevations at an average rate of 0.40 and 0.49 m yr−1, respectively, with shift rates at high-latitude sites exceeding those at lower latitudes. Species interactions (either through facilitation or competition) and disturbances complicate these trends. As a result, treeline shift lags behind climate warming by at least 50 years, with drought stress, species interactions and disturbance becoming increasingly important as warming continues. The consequences of treeline and shrubline advance include reduced soil carbon storage, biodiversity decline, and reduced surface albedo. Future research should prioritize extended field monitoring to enhance projection accuracy of ecotone dynamics and associated climate feedbacks across local to global scales. Alpine treelines and shrublines are advancing to higher elevations in the context of warming. This Review synthesizes global trends in ecotone dynamics, explores the underlying drivers and mechanisms, and considers the consequences to alpine regions.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 8","pages":"489-502"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-17DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00697-4
Catherine Annen, Roberto F. Weinberg, Jean-François Moyen, Rémy Cazabet
Magmatic systems are composed of many nonlinearly interacting components that operate across various scales; thus, these systems can be modelled as complex systems. In this Perspective, we examine efforts to recognize and model complexity in magmatic systems and suggest the direction for building a global integrated model to investigate volcanic and igneous processes. Magmatic systems are complex, as they operate on time and spatial scales ranging from seconds to millions of years and micrometres to kilometres, respectively, organized as networks of interacting components. These networks drain magmas and volatiles from deep sources towards plutons, dykes, sills, and volcanoes. Statistical analyses suggest power-law relationships in magmatic and volcanic processes, from the geometrical feature of melt extraction network at the source, to magma mingling, to the distribution of eruption intensity. These findings serve as evidence for self-organized criticality, suggesting that magmatic systems respond to small disturbances in unpredictable ways. The behaviours of complex systems emerge from the connections between the parts of the system and cannot be predicted by separate investigation of the individual parts. Therefore, Earth science should follow the example of fields such as climate sciences and take advantage of tools developed in complex system science to build an integrated model to test the validity of conceptual models and advance understanding of magmatic systems. Magmatic systems exhibit characteristics of complex systems, including multiscalar interactions, interconnected networks and power-law distributions. This Perspective explores how tools from complex system science could be used to model magmatic systems.
{"title":"A complex system approach to magmatism","authors":"Catherine Annen, Roberto F. Weinberg, Jean-François Moyen, Rémy Cazabet","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00697-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00697-4","url":null,"abstract":"Magmatic systems are composed of many nonlinearly interacting components that operate across various scales; thus, these systems can be modelled as complex systems. In this Perspective, we examine efforts to recognize and model complexity in magmatic systems and suggest the direction for building a global integrated model to investigate volcanic and igneous processes. Magmatic systems are complex, as they operate on time and spatial scales ranging from seconds to millions of years and micrometres to kilometres, respectively, organized as networks of interacting components. These networks drain magmas and volatiles from deep sources towards plutons, dykes, sills, and volcanoes. Statistical analyses suggest power-law relationships in magmatic and volcanic processes, from the geometrical feature of melt extraction network at the source, to magma mingling, to the distribution of eruption intensity. These findings serve as evidence for self-organized criticality, suggesting that magmatic systems respond to small disturbances in unpredictable ways. The behaviours of complex systems emerge from the connections between the parts of the system and cannot be predicted by separate investigation of the individual parts. Therefore, Earth science should follow the example of fields such as climate sciences and take advantage of tools developed in complex system science to build an integrated model to test the validity of conceptual models and advance understanding of magmatic systems. Magmatic systems exhibit characteristics of complex systems, including multiscalar interactions, interconnected networks and power-law distributions. This Perspective explores how tools from complex system science could be used to model magmatic systems.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 8","pages":"535-548"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-03DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00704-8
Emmeline Broad
Emmeline Broad describes the use of habitat suitability models to predict the distribution of deep-sea habitats.
Emmeline Broad描述了使用栖息地适宜性模型来预测深海栖息地的分布。
{"title":"Mapping deep-sea habitats with machine learning models","authors":"Emmeline Broad","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00704-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00704-8","url":null,"abstract":"Emmeline Broad describes the use of habitat suitability models to predict the distribution of deep-sea habitats.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 8","pages":"487-487"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-26DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00698-3
Shichun Huang
Bolnore Village Cub Scouts (aged 8–10, UK) ask Dr Shichun Huang how hot the inside of the Earth is.
伯诺村童子军（8-10岁，英国）向黄世春博士询问地球内部有多热。
{"title":"How hot is the inside of the Earth?","authors":"Shichun Huang","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00698-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00698-3","url":null,"abstract":"Bolnore Village Cub Scouts (aged 8–10, UK) ask Dr Shichun Huang how hot the inside of the Earth is.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 7","pages":"437-437"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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