Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0
Ingrid Boas, Clare Davis
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Ingrid Boas about their project investigating the role of cultural heritage in shaping climate change adaptation amongst Indigenous peoples with mobile livelihoods.
{"title":"Indigenous cultural heritage in motion","authors":"Ingrid Boas, Clare Davis","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0","url":null,"abstract":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Ingrid Boas about their project investigating the role of cultural heritage in shaping climate change adaptation amongst Indigenous peoples with mobile livelihoods.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"769-769"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3
Lennart T. Bach, Phil Williamson, Joanna I. House, Philip W. Boyd
Natural CO2 removal is increasingly being claimed as anthropogenic climate mitigation. This misrepresentation is already prevalent for forests and coastal ecosystems; there is now the risk of the error reoccurring for open-ocean CO2 uptake via the biological carbon pump.
{"title":"Natural carbon uptake by ocean biology will not deliver credible carbon credits","authors":"Lennart T. Bach, Phil Williamson, Joanna I. House, Philip W. Boyd","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3","url":null,"abstract":"Natural CO2 removal is increasingly being claimed as anthropogenic climate mitigation. This misrepresentation is already prevalent for forests and coastal ecosystems; there is now the risk of the error reoccurring for open-ocean CO2 uptake via the biological carbon pump.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"767-768"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1
Elizabeth Cottrell, Dante Canil, Charles Langmuir, Katy A. Evans, Fabrice Gaillard
Oxygen is the most abundant element in Earth’s mantle. Oxygen fugacity (fO2), which quantifies the availability of oxygen to mediate oxidation–reduction reactions, affects important mantle processes, such as depth of melting, extraction of volatiles to the atmosphere, crustal composition and ore body generation. Debate continues over modern and past variations in mantle fO2. In this Review, we compile thermobarometric data from mafic and ultramafic rocks at ridges, back-arcs, and arcs and show that the fO2 of subduction-influenced arc mantle is appreciably higher than the mantle supplying ocean ridges. We review the timing and mechanisms that might transfer redox budget to the arc mantle wedge. A new proxy for the redox-sensitive element vanadium confirms the higher oxidation state of arc mantle and can be used to show there is no conclusive evidence for oxidation of the ambient mantle since the Archaean (2,500–4,000 million years ago). Earlier, in the Hadean magma ocean (>4,000 million years ago), liquid silicate equilibrated with liquid metal alloy while the upper mantle was rapidly oxidized to higher fO2. Future research should focus on how mantle fO2 coevolved with Earth’s primitive atmosphere during core formation, magma ocean crystallization and degassing. Mantle oxygen fugacity is set by phase equilibria and is intimately linked to geochemical and geodynamic processes. This Review explores the possible mechanisms that have controlled mantle oxygen fugacity from Earth’s early beginnings to the present day.
{"title":"Earth’s past and present mantle oxygen fugacity","authors":"Elizabeth Cottrell, Dante Canil, Charles Langmuir, Katy A. Evans, Fabrice Gaillard","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1","url":null,"abstract":"Oxygen is the most abundant element in Earth’s mantle. Oxygen fugacity (fO2), which quantifies the availability of oxygen to mediate oxidation–reduction reactions, affects important mantle processes, such as depth of melting, extraction of volatiles to the atmosphere, crustal composition and ore body generation. Debate continues over modern and past variations in mantle fO2. In this Review, we compile thermobarometric data from mafic and ultramafic rocks at ridges, back-arcs, and arcs and show that the fO2 of subduction-influenced arc mantle is appreciably higher than the mantle supplying ocean ridges. We review the timing and mechanisms that might transfer redox budget to the arc mantle wedge. A new proxy for the redox-sensitive element vanadium confirms the higher oxidation state of arc mantle and can be used to show there is no conclusive evidence for oxidation of the ambient mantle since the Archaean (2,500–4,000 million years ago). Earlier, in the Hadean magma ocean (>4,000 million years ago), liquid silicate equilibrated with liquid metal alloy while the upper mantle was rapidly oxidized to higher fO2. Future research should focus on how mantle fO2 coevolved with Earth’s primitive atmosphere during core formation, magma ocean crystallization and degassing. Mantle oxygen fugacity is set by phase equilibria and is intimately linked to geochemical and geodynamic processes. This Review explores the possible mechanisms that have controlled mantle oxygen fugacity from Earth’s early beginnings to the present day.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"728-746"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Viola Heinrich, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz
Accurately estimating carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from land use and land-use change (FLUC) is critical to assessing nationally determined contributions and progress towards climate targets. In this Perspective, we compare five FLUC estimation approaches, discuss the origins of large uncertainties and discrepancies in estimates and consider how to improve estimate accuracy and better align individual estimates. Global FLUC estimates between 2000 and 2023 range from net emissions of 1.9 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 (based on dynamic global vegetation models) to net removals of −1.0 PgC yr−1 (based on Earth observations), with other estimates from bookkeeping models, country reports and atmospheric inversions falling within this range. Discrepancies arise from each approach using different definitions for FLUC, the spatial extent of managed land and including degradation and environmental effects to varying degrees. As a result, each approach accounts for different fluxes and land areas. Uncertainties within individual estimates are attributed to quality of land-use data, observational constraints and incomplete process consideration. These uncertainties can be reduced through better separation of anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes, including the effects of anthropogenically driven ecosystem degradation and improving model parameterizations. Thus, future research should prioritise unambiguous and consistent definitions and conducting systematic evaluations against each other to improve the translation and harmonization of FLUC estimates, which is essential to support effective climate policies and optimize land-based climate change mitigation. Robust quantification of carbon dioxide fluxes from land use is critical for guiding climate change mitigation efforts and for improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. This Perspective explores the origins of uncertainties and discrepancies in established estimation approaches and considers strategies to improve, translate and harmonize flux estimates.
准确估算土地利用和土地利用变化产生的二氧化碳通量对于评估国家自主贡献和实现气候目标的进展至关重要。在这个观点中,我们比较了五种FLUC估计方法,讨论了估计中大不确定性和差异的起源,并考虑了如何提高估计精度和更好地校准单个估计。2000年至2023年全球FLUC估算值的范围从净排放量1.9±0.6 PgC /年(基于动态全球植被模型)到净清除率- 1.0 PgC /年(基于地球观测)不等,其他来自簿记模型、国家报告和大气逆温的估算值也在这一范围内。每一种方法使用不同的定义,包括不同程度的退化和环境影响,从而产生差异。因此,每种方法考虑不同的通量和土地面积。个别估算的不确定性是由于土地利用数据的质量、观测限制和不完整的过程考虑。通过更好地分离人为和自然CO2通量,包括人为驱动的生态系统退化的影响和改进模式参数化,可以减少这些不确定性。因此,未来的研究应优先考虑明确和一致的定义,并对彼此进行系统评估,以改进FLUC估算的翻译和协调,这对于支持有效的气候政策和优化陆基气候变化减缓至关重要。对土地利用产生的二氧化碳通量进行强有力的量化,对于指导减缓气候变化的努力和增进对全球碳循环的了解至关重要。本展望探讨了既定估算方法中不确定性和差异的根源,并考虑了改进、转换和协调通量估算的策略。
{"title":"Differences and uncertainties in land-use CO2 flux estimates","authors":"Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Viola Heinrich, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6","url":null,"abstract":"Accurately estimating carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from land use and land-use change (FLUC) is critical to assessing nationally determined contributions and progress towards climate targets. In this Perspective, we compare five FLUC estimation approaches, discuss the origins of large uncertainties and discrepancies in estimates and consider how to improve estimate accuracy and better align individual estimates. Global FLUC estimates between 2000 and 2023 range from net emissions of 1.9 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 (based on dynamic global vegetation models) to net removals of −1.0 PgC yr−1 (based on Earth observations), with other estimates from bookkeeping models, country reports and atmospheric inversions falling within this range. Discrepancies arise from each approach using different definitions for FLUC, the spatial extent of managed land and including degradation and environmental effects to varying degrees. As a result, each approach accounts for different fluxes and land areas. Uncertainties within individual estimates are attributed to quality of land-use data, observational constraints and incomplete process consideration. These uncertainties can be reduced through better separation of anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes, including the effects of anthropogenically driven ecosystem degradation and improving model parameterizations. Thus, future research should prioritise unambiguous and consistent definitions and conducting systematic evaluations against each other to improve the translation and harmonization of FLUC estimates, which is essential to support effective climate policies and optimize land-based climate change mitigation. Robust quantification of carbon dioxide fluxes from land use is critical for guiding climate change mitigation efforts and for improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. This Perspective explores the origins of uncertainties and discrepancies in established estimation approaches and considers strategies to improve, translate and harmonize flux estimates.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"747-766"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00738-y
Andeise C. Dutra
Andeise Dutra explains how near-surface digital camera can be used together with satellite observations to investigate plant phenology across scales.
Andeise Dutra解释了近地表数码相机如何与卫星观测一起使用,以跨尺度研究植物物候。
{"title":"Bridging scales in vegetation phenology using near-surface and satellite data","authors":"Andeise C. Dutra","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00738-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00738-y","url":null,"abstract":"Andeise Dutra explains how near-surface digital camera can be used together with satellite observations to investigate plant phenology across scales.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"7 1","pages":"5-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145958187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00739-x
Julie A. Fowler
Julie Fowler explains how pile burns can be used to investigate wildfire impacts on soil biogeochemistry.
朱莉·福勒解释了如何利用堆燃烧来调查野火对土壤生物地球化学的影响。
{"title":"Using pile burns to investigate the impacts of severe wildfires on soil","authors":"Julie A. Fowler","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00739-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00739-x","url":null,"abstract":"Julie Fowler explains how pile burns can be used to investigate wildfire impacts on soil biogeochemistry.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"7 1","pages":"6-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145958192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4
Xiangdong Zhang, Timo Vihma, Annette Rinke, G. W. K. Moore, Han Tang, Cecilia Äijälä, Alice DuVivier, Jianbin Huang, Laura Landrum, Chao Li, Jing Zhang, Linette Boisvert, Bin Cheng, Judah Cohen, Dörthe Handorf, Edward Hanna, Katharina Hartmuth, Marius O. Jonassen, Yong Luo, Sonja Murto, James E. Overland, Chelsea Parker, William Perrie, Kirstin Schulz, Axel Schweiger, Thomas Spengler, Michael Steele, Wen-wen Tung, Nicholas Tyrrell, Elina Valkonen, Hailong Wang, Zhuo Wang, Wilbert Weijer, Siiri Wickström, Yutian Wu, Minghong Zhang
Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. In this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers. Rare and extreme climate events have increasingly occurred in the Arctic since ~2000. This Review outlines the observed and projected changes in atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric extremes and explains their increasing occurrence through a ‘pushing and triggering’ framework.
{"title":"Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic","authors":"Xiangdong Zhang, Timo Vihma, Annette Rinke, G. W. K. Moore, Han Tang, Cecilia Äijälä, Alice DuVivier, Jianbin Huang, Laura Landrum, Chao Li, Jing Zhang, Linette Boisvert, Bin Cheng, Judah Cohen, Dörthe Handorf, Edward Hanna, Katharina Hartmuth, Marius O. Jonassen, Yong Luo, Sonja Murto, James E. Overland, Chelsea Parker, William Perrie, Kirstin Schulz, Axel Schweiger, Thomas Spengler, Michael Steele, Wen-wen Tung, Nicholas Tyrrell, Elina Valkonen, Hailong Wang, Zhuo Wang, Wilbert Weijer, Siiri Wickström, Yutian Wu, Minghong Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4","url":null,"abstract":"Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. In this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers. Rare and extreme climate events have increasingly occurred in the Arctic since ~2000. This Review outlines the observed and projected changes in atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric extremes and explains their increasing occurrence through a ‘pushing and triggering’ framework.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"691-711"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00737-z
Marta Koch
Marta Koch explains how stakeholder asset-mapping can help identify emerging climate action technology solutions in the Arctic.
Marta Koch解释了利益相关者资产映射如何帮助确定北极地区新兴的气候行动技术解决方案。
{"title":"Stakeholder asset-mapping of climate technology infrastructures","authors":"Marta Koch","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00737-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00737-z","url":null,"abstract":"Marta Koch explains how stakeholder asset-mapping can help identify emerging climate action technology solutions in the Arctic.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"771-771"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-13DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00729-z
Laetitia Le Pourhiet
Lara (16, Turkey) asks Professor Le Pourhiet how faults evolve into plate boundaries.
Lara(16岁,土耳其)问Le Pourhiet教授断层是如何演化成板块边界的。
{"title":"How do faults evolve into plate boundaries?","authors":"Laetitia Le Pourhiet","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00729-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00729-z","url":null,"abstract":"Lara (16, Turkey) asks Professor Le Pourhiet how faults evolve into plate boundaries.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"687-687"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-07DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2
Wenping Yuan, Jie Tian, Mei Wang, Shuo Wang, Wenfang Xu, Yin Wang, Zheng Fu, Martin P. Girardin, Julia K. Green, Sha Zhou, Jiali Shang, Bin He, Miao Huang, Menglong Liu, Haibo Lu, Shilong Piao, Yamin Qing, Meimei Xue, Chaoqing Song, Yongxian Su, Walid Sadok, Yao Zhang, Xiuzhi Chen
Rising atmospheric dryness is affecting the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle through its influence on plant physiology. In this Review, we synthesize historical and projected trends in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a proxy for atmospheric dryness, and the mechanisms by which it affects the terrestrial carbon cycle. Since the late 1990s, global mean VPD has increased at a mean rate of 0.0155 ± 0.0041 hPa yr−1. VPD-driven reductions in leaf area index (0.11 ± 0.07 m2 m−2 hPa−1, 1982–2015), gross primary production (13.82 ± 3.12 PgC hPa−1, 1982–2015), light use efficiency (0.04 ± 0.02 gC MJ−1 hPa−1, 2001–2020) and net ecosystem production (5.59 ± 1.15 PgC hPa−1, 1982–2013) have been observed globally. However, attributing changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle to VPD is still challenging, owing to the confounding influence of other environmental factors, such as soil moisture, temperature and radiation. The mechanisms underlying plant responses to VPD — which include stomatal closure, hydraulic failure, abscisic acid biosynthesis, and cascading effects on fires and soil moisture deficits — are also poorly constrained, limiting the predictive capabilities of terrestrial carbon cycle models. Future research should prioritize establishing global VPD-manipulation experiments to enhance understanding of feedbacks between VPD, plants and the carbon cycle, and these mechanisms should then be integrated into terrestrial carbon cycle models. Atmospheric dryness is increasing as air temperatures rise because of climate change. This Review explores temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity in global atmospheric dryness and the implications for plant growth, productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling.
大气干燥度上升通过对植物生理的影响影响陆地生态系统的碳循环。在这篇综述中,我们综合了大气蒸汽压差(VPD)的历史和预测趋势,VPD是大气干燥的一个代表,以及它影响陆地碳循环的机制。自20世纪90年代末以来,全球平均VPD以0.0155±0.0041 hPa yr - 1的平均速率增加。在全球范围内,vpd驱动的叶面积指数(0.11±0.07 m2 m−2 hPa−1,1982-2015)、初级总产量(13.82±3.12 PgC hPa−1,1982-2015)、光能利用效率(0.04±0.02 gC MJ−1 hPa−1,2001-2020)和净生态系统产量(5.59±1.15 PgC hPa−1,1982-2013)减少。然而,由于土壤湿度、温度和辐射等其他环境因素的混杂影响,将陆地碳循环的变化归因于VPD仍然具有挑战性。植物对VPD的响应机制——包括气孔关闭、水力破坏、脱落酸生物合成以及对火灾和土壤水分缺乏的级联效应——也很少被限制,限制了陆地碳循环模型的预测能力。未来的研究应优先建立全球VPD操纵实验,以加强对VPD、植物和碳循环之间反馈的理解,并将这些机制整合到陆地碳循环模型中。由于气候变化,气温上升,大气干燥度也在增加。本文综述了全球大气干燥的时空变化趋势及其对植物生长、生产力和陆地碳循环的影响。
{"title":"Impacts of rising atmospheric dryness on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle","authors":"Wenping Yuan, Jie Tian, Mei Wang, Shuo Wang, Wenfang Xu, Yin Wang, Zheng Fu, Martin P. Girardin, Julia K. Green, Sha Zhou, Jiali Shang, Bin He, Miao Huang, Menglong Liu, Haibo Lu, Shilong Piao, Yamin Qing, Meimei Xue, Chaoqing Song, Yongxian Su, Walid Sadok, Yao Zhang, Xiuzhi Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2","url":null,"abstract":"Rising atmospheric dryness is affecting the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle through its influence on plant physiology. In this Review, we synthesize historical and projected trends in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a proxy for atmospheric dryness, and the mechanisms by which it affects the terrestrial carbon cycle. Since the late 1990s, global mean VPD has increased at a mean rate of 0.0155 ± 0.0041 hPa yr−1. VPD-driven reductions in leaf area index (0.11 ± 0.07 m2 m−2 hPa−1, 1982–2015), gross primary production (13.82 ± 3.12 PgC hPa−1, 1982–2015), light use efficiency (0.04 ± 0.02 gC MJ−1 hPa−1, 2001–2020) and net ecosystem production (5.59 ± 1.15 PgC hPa−1, 1982–2013) have been observed globally. However, attributing changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle to VPD is still challenging, owing to the confounding influence of other environmental factors, such as soil moisture, temperature and radiation. The mechanisms underlying plant responses to VPD — which include stomatal closure, hydraulic failure, abscisic acid biosynthesis, and cascading effects on fires and soil moisture deficits — are also poorly constrained, limiting the predictive capabilities of terrestrial carbon cycle models. Future research should prioritize establishing global VPD-manipulation experiments to enhance understanding of feedbacks between VPD, plants and the carbon cycle, and these mechanisms should then be integrated into terrestrial carbon cycle models. Atmospheric dryness is increasing as air temperatures rise because of climate change. This Review explores temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity in global atmospheric dryness and the implications for plant growth, productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"712-727"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}