Pub Date : 2024-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00505-x
David De Vleeschouwer, Lawrence M. E. Percival, Nina M. A. Wichern, Sietske J. Batenburg
Astronomical insolation forcing is well established as the underlying metronome of Quaternary ice ages and Cenozoic climate changes. Yet its effects on earlier eras (Mesozoic, Palaeozoic and pre-Cambrian) are less understood. In this Review, we explore how cyclostratigraphy can help to distinguish climate modes over the pre-Cenozoic era and aid our understanding of climate responses to astronomical forcing over geological time. The growing uncertainties with geologic age mean that pre-Cenozoic astronomical solutions cannot be used as tuning targets. However, they can be used as metronomes to identify the pacing of distinct climate states. Throughout the pre-Cenozoic, global average temperature differences between climate states were even more extreme (5–32 °C) than in the Cenozoic (14–27 °C), and these, combined with an evolving biosphere and changing plate tectonics, led to distinct Earth-system responses to astronomical forcing. The late Palaeozoic icehouse, for example, is characterized by a pronounced response to eccentricity, caused by nonlinear cryosphere and carbon-cycle behaviour. By contrast, the Devonian warmhouse and the Late Cretaceous hothouse featured recurrent episodes of marine anoxia that may have been paced by astronomical forcing. Formally defining 405,000-year eccentricity cycles as chronostratigraphic units (astrochronozones) throughout the Phanerozoic eon will enable a more comprehensive understanding of how astronomical forcing has shaped Earth’s climate over geologic time. Earth’s climate responds to astronomical forcing cycles that occur over tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. This Review explores the distinct Earth-system responses to astronomical forcing over the pre-Cenozoic era and explains how astronomical cycles are used to calibrate geologic time.
{"title":"Pre-Cenozoic cyclostratigraphy and palaeoclimate responses to astronomical forcing","authors":"David De Vleeschouwer, Lawrence M. E. Percival, Nina M. A. Wichern, Sietske J. Batenburg","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00505-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00505-x","url":null,"abstract":"Astronomical insolation forcing is well established as the underlying metronome of Quaternary ice ages and Cenozoic climate changes. Yet its effects on earlier eras (Mesozoic, Palaeozoic and pre-Cambrian) are less understood. In this Review, we explore how cyclostratigraphy can help to distinguish climate modes over the pre-Cenozoic era and aid our understanding of climate responses to astronomical forcing over geological time. The growing uncertainties with geologic age mean that pre-Cenozoic astronomical solutions cannot be used as tuning targets. However, they can be used as metronomes to identify the pacing of distinct climate states. Throughout the pre-Cenozoic, global average temperature differences between climate states were even more extreme (5–32 °C) than in the Cenozoic (14–27 °C), and these, combined with an evolving biosphere and changing plate tectonics, led to distinct Earth-system responses to astronomical forcing. The late Palaeozoic icehouse, for example, is characterized by a pronounced response to eccentricity, caused by nonlinear cryosphere and carbon-cycle behaviour. By contrast, the Devonian warmhouse and the Late Cretaceous hothouse featured recurrent episodes of marine anoxia that may have been paced by astronomical forcing. Formally defining 405,000-year eccentricity cycles as chronostratigraphic units (astrochronozones) throughout the Phanerozoic eon will enable a more comprehensive understanding of how astronomical forcing has shaped Earth’s climate over geologic time. Earth’s climate responds to astronomical forcing cycles that occur over tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. This Review explores the distinct Earth-system responses to astronomical forcing over the pre-Cenozoic era and explains how astronomical cycles are used to calibrate geologic time.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139083037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00504-y
So Kawaguchi, Angus Atkinson, Dominik Bahlburg, Kim S. Bernard, Emma L. Cavan, Martin J. Cox, Simeon L. Hill, Bettina Meyer, Devi Veytia
Krill habitats in the Southern Ocean are impacted by changing climate conditions, reduced sea ice and rising temperatures. These changes, in turn, affect krill occurrence, physiology and behaviour, which could have ecosystem impacts. In this Review, we examine climate change impacts on Antarctic krill and the potential implications for the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Since the 1970s, there have been apparent reductions in adult population density and the occurrence of very dense swarms in the northern Southwest Atlantic. These changes were associated with latitudinal and longitudinal rearrangement of population distribution — including a poleward contraction in the Southwest Atlantic — and were likely driven by ocean warming, sea-ice reductions and changes in the quality of larval habitats. As swarms are targeted by fishers and predators, this contraction could increase fishery–predator interactions, potentially exacerbating risk to already declining penguin populations and recovering whale populations. These risks require urgent mitigation measures to be developed. A circumpolar monitoring network using emerging technologies is needed to augment existing surveys and better record the shifts in krill distribution. Krill are food sources for megafauna, are drivers of carbon export and are being impacted by sea-ice declines and changing climate conditions. This Review examines changes in krill populations, habitats and behaviour in the Southern Ocean, and discusses their potential drivers and implications for fishery management in the future.
{"title":"Climate change impacts on Antarctic krill behaviour and population dynamics","authors":"So Kawaguchi, Angus Atkinson, Dominik Bahlburg, Kim S. Bernard, Emma L. Cavan, Martin J. Cox, Simeon L. Hill, Bettina Meyer, Devi Veytia","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00504-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00504-y","url":null,"abstract":"Krill habitats in the Southern Ocean are impacted by changing climate conditions, reduced sea ice and rising temperatures. These changes, in turn, affect krill occurrence, physiology and behaviour, which could have ecosystem impacts. In this Review, we examine climate change impacts on Antarctic krill and the potential implications for the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Since the 1970s, there have been apparent reductions in adult population density and the occurrence of very dense swarms in the northern Southwest Atlantic. These changes were associated with latitudinal and longitudinal rearrangement of population distribution — including a poleward contraction in the Southwest Atlantic — and were likely driven by ocean warming, sea-ice reductions and changes in the quality of larval habitats. As swarms are targeted by fishers and predators, this contraction could increase fishery–predator interactions, potentially exacerbating risk to already declining penguin populations and recovering whale populations. These risks require urgent mitigation measures to be developed. A circumpolar monitoring network using emerging technologies is needed to augment existing surveys and better record the shifts in krill distribution. Krill are food sources for megafauna, are drivers of carbon export and are being impacted by sea-ice declines and changing climate conditions. This Review examines changes in krill populations, habitats and behaviour in the Southern Ocean, and discusses their potential drivers and implications for fishery management in the future.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138819932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption forecasting difficult to achieve. In this Review, we explore the first-order scientific approaches that are essential to progress towards forecasting the time and location of magmatic eruptions. Forecasting in time uses different monitoring techniques, depending on the conduit-opening mode. Ascending magma can create a new conduit (closed-conduit eruptions), use a previously open conduit (open-conduit eruptions) or flow below a solidified magma plug (semi-open-conduit eruptions). Closed-conduit eruptions provide stronger monitoring signals often detected months in advance, but they commonly occur at volcanoes with poorly known pre-eruptive behaviour. Open-conduit eruptions, associated with low-viscosity magmas, provide more subtle signals often detected only minutes in advance, although their higher eruption frequency promotes more testable approaches. Semi-open-conduit eruptions show intermediate behaviours, potentially displaying clear pre-eruptive signals days in advance and often recurring repeatedly. However, any given volcano can experience multiple conduit-opening modes, sometimes simultaneously, requiring combinations of forecasting approaches. Forecasting the location of vent opening relies on determining the stresses controlling magma propagation, deformation and seismic monitoring. The use of physics-based models to assimilate monitoring data and observations will substantially improve forecasting, but requires a deeper understanding of pre-eruptive processes and more extensive monitoring data. Volcanic eruptions are major natural hazards, but forecasting their activity remains challenging. This Review discusses scientific and monitoring approaches used to forecast magmatic eruptions.
{"title":"Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions","authors":"Valerio Acocella, Maurizio Ripepe, Eleonora Rivalta, Aline Peltier, Federico Galetto, Erouscilla Joseph","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00492-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00492-z","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption forecasting difficult to achieve. In this Review, we explore the first-order scientific approaches that are essential to progress towards forecasting the time and location of magmatic eruptions. Forecasting in time uses different monitoring techniques, depending on the conduit-opening mode. Ascending magma can create a new conduit (closed-conduit eruptions), use a previously open conduit (open-conduit eruptions) or flow below a solidified magma plug (semi-open-conduit eruptions). Closed-conduit eruptions provide stronger monitoring signals often detected months in advance, but they commonly occur at volcanoes with poorly known pre-eruptive behaviour. Open-conduit eruptions, associated with low-viscosity magmas, provide more subtle signals often detected only minutes in advance, although their higher eruption frequency promotes more testable approaches. Semi-open-conduit eruptions show intermediate behaviours, potentially displaying clear pre-eruptive signals days in advance and often recurring repeatedly. However, any given volcano can experience multiple conduit-opening modes, sometimes simultaneously, requiring combinations of forecasting approaches. Forecasting the location of vent opening relies on determining the stresses controlling magma propagation, deformation and seismic monitoring. The use of physics-based models to assimilate monitoring data and observations will substantially improve forecasting, but requires a deeper understanding of pre-eruptive processes and more extensive monitoring data. Volcanic eruptions are major natural hazards, but forecasting their activity remains challenging. This Review discusses scientific and monitoring approaches used to forecast magmatic eruptions.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138555491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00497-8
Mohammad J. A. Moein, Cornelius Langenbruch, Ryan Schultz, Francesco Grigoli, William L. Ellsworth, Ruijia Wang, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Serge Shapiro
Anthropogenic operations involving underground fluid extraction or injection can cause unexpectedly large and even damaging earthquakes, despite operational and regulatory efforts. In this Review, we explore the physical mechanisms of induced seismicity and their fundamental applications to modelling, forecasting, monitoring and mitigating induced earthquakes. The primary mechanisms of injection-induced earthquakes considered important for creating stress perturbations include pore-pressure diffusion, poroelastic coupling, thermoelastic stresses, earthquake interactions and aseismic slip. Extraction-induced earthquakes are triggered by differential compaction linked with poroelastic effects and reservoir creep. Secondary mechanisms include reducing the rock mass strength subject to stress corrosion, dynamic weakening and cohesion loss. However, constraining the maximum magnitude, Mmax, of a potential earthquake on the basis of physical process understanding is still challenging. Common Mmax theories are based on injection volume as the single source of strain, which might not be efficient in seismically active regions. Alternative time-based Mmax models have the potential to explain why some induced earthquake events tap into tectonic strain and lead to runaway ruptures (in which the rupture front extends beyond the perturbed rock volume). Developments in physics-based forecasting and potential future success in mitigation of induced-seismic risk could help increase the acceptance of emerging energy technologies such as enhanced geothermal systems and underground gas storage during the sustainable transition. Induced earthquakes can occur during several industrial activities, including geothermal developments and underground storage. This Review discusses the current physics-based understanding of induced earthquakes and the implications for forecasting, monitoring, seismic hazard and risk assessments and mitigation strategies.
{"title":"The physical mechanisms of induced earthquakes","authors":"Mohammad J. A. Moein, Cornelius Langenbruch, Ryan Schultz, Francesco Grigoli, William L. Ellsworth, Ruijia Wang, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Serge Shapiro","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00497-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00497-8","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic operations involving underground fluid extraction or injection can cause unexpectedly large and even damaging earthquakes, despite operational and regulatory efforts. In this Review, we explore the physical mechanisms of induced seismicity and their fundamental applications to modelling, forecasting, monitoring and mitigating induced earthquakes. The primary mechanisms of injection-induced earthquakes considered important for creating stress perturbations include pore-pressure diffusion, poroelastic coupling, thermoelastic stresses, earthquake interactions and aseismic slip. Extraction-induced earthquakes are triggered by differential compaction linked with poroelastic effects and reservoir creep. Secondary mechanisms include reducing the rock mass strength subject to stress corrosion, dynamic weakening and cohesion loss. However, constraining the maximum magnitude, Mmax, of a potential earthquake on the basis of physical process understanding is still challenging. Common Mmax theories are based on injection volume as the single source of strain, which might not be efficient in seismically active regions. Alternative time-based Mmax models have the potential to explain why some induced earthquake events tap into tectonic strain and lead to runaway ruptures (in which the rupture front extends beyond the perturbed rock volume). Developments in physics-based forecasting and potential future success in mitigation of induced-seismic risk could help increase the acceptance of emerging energy technologies such as enhanced geothermal systems and underground gas storage during the sustainable transition. Induced earthquakes can occur during several industrial activities, including geothermal developments and underground storage. This Review discusses the current physics-based understanding of induced earthquakes and the implications for forecasting, monitoring, seismic hazard and risk assessments and mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138523893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-24DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00506-w
I. S. Stewart, E. Sevilla, K. Barragán, E. Yahya Menteşe
Disaster risk communication traditionally focuses on authorities conveying hazard and risk information to at-risk populations, with little consideration of local community knowledge. To enable risk reduction and resilience, disaster management must forge partnerships with local communities and empower citizen-led initiatives.
{"title":"Disaster risk communication requires dissemination, dialogue and participation","authors":"I. S. Stewart, E. Sevilla, K. Barragán, E. Yahya Menteşe","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00506-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00506-w","url":null,"abstract":"Disaster risk communication traditionally focuses on authorities conveying hazard and risk information to at-risk populations, with little consideration of local community knowledge. To enable risk reduction and resilience, disaster management must forge partnerships with local communities and empower citizen-led initiatives.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138523897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-23DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00495-w
Thibault Datry, Andrew J. Boulton, Ken Fritz, Rachel Stubbington, Nuria Cid, Julie Crabot, Klement Tockner
Non-perennial river segments — those that recurrently cease to flow or frequently dry — occur in all river networks and are globally more abundant than perennial (always flowing) segments. However, research and management have historically focused on perennial river segments. In this Review, we outline how non-perennial segments are integral parts of river networks. Repeated cycles of flowing, non-flowing and dry phases in non-perennial segments influence biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics at different spatial scales, from individual segments to entire river networks. Varying configurations of perennial and non-perennial segments govern physical, chemical and ecological responses to changes in the flow regimes of each river network, especially in response to human activities. The extent of non-perennial segments in river networks has increased owing to warming, changing hydrological patterns and human activities, and this increase is predicted to continue. Moreover, the dry phases of flow regimes are expected to be longer, drier and more frequent, albeit with high regional variability. These changes will likely impact biodiversity, potentially tipping some ecosystems to compromised stable states. Effective river-network management must recognize ecosystem services (such as flood risk management and groundwater recharge) provided by non-perennial segments and ensure their legislative and regulatory protection, which is often lacking. Non-perennial segments of rivers undergo cycles of flowing, non-flowing and dry phases, influencing ecosystem dynamics and services across the river network. This Review describes the occurrence, ecology and future of these intermittent and ephemeral flows and highlights the importance of protecting these segments.
{"title":"Non-perennial segments in river networks","authors":"Thibault Datry, Andrew J. Boulton, Ken Fritz, Rachel Stubbington, Nuria Cid, Julie Crabot, Klement Tockner","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00495-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00495-w","url":null,"abstract":"Non-perennial river segments — those that recurrently cease to flow or frequently dry — occur in all river networks and are globally more abundant than perennial (always flowing) segments. However, research and management have historically focused on perennial river segments. In this Review, we outline how non-perennial segments are integral parts of river networks. Repeated cycles of flowing, non-flowing and dry phases in non-perennial segments influence biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics at different spatial scales, from individual segments to entire river networks. Varying configurations of perennial and non-perennial segments govern physical, chemical and ecological responses to changes in the flow regimes of each river network, especially in response to human activities. The extent of non-perennial segments in river networks has increased owing to warming, changing hydrological patterns and human activities, and this increase is predicted to continue. Moreover, the dry phases of flow regimes are expected to be longer, drier and more frequent, albeit with high regional variability. These changes will likely impact biodiversity, potentially tipping some ecosystems to compromised stable states. Effective river-network management must recognize ecosystem services (such as flood risk management and groundwater recharge) provided by non-perennial segments and ensure their legislative and regulatory protection, which is often lacking. Non-perennial segments of rivers undergo cycles of flowing, non-flowing and dry phases, influencing ecosystem dynamics and services across the river network. This Review describes the occurrence, ecology and future of these intermittent and ephemeral flows and highlights the importance of protecting these segments.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138523889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00493-y
Kevin Anderson, Holly Jean Buck, Lili Fuhr, Oliver Geden, Glen P. Peters, Eve Tamme
Various methods of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are being pursued in response to the climate crisis, but they are mostly not proven at scale. Climate experts are divided over whether CDR is a necessary requirement or a dangerous distraction from limiting emissions. In this Viewpoint, six experts offer their views on the CDR debate.
{"title":"Controversies of carbon dioxide removal","authors":"Kevin Anderson, Holly Jean Buck, Lili Fuhr, Oliver Geden, Glen P. Peters, Eve Tamme","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00493-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00493-y","url":null,"abstract":"Various methods of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are being pursued in response to the climate crisis, but they are mostly not proven at scale. Climate experts are divided over whether CDR is a necessary requirement or a dangerous distraction from limiting emissions. In this Viewpoint, six experts offer their views on the CDR debate.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138523888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Heidi Webber, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Jean Louis Durand, Frank Ewert, Pierre Martre, Dilys Sefakor MacCarthy
Climate change challenges efforts to maintain and improve crop production in many regions. In this Review, we examine yield responses to warmer temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide and changes in water availability for globally important staple cereal crops (wheat, maize, millet, sorghum and rice). Elevated CO2 can have a compensatory effect on crop yield for C3 crops (wheat and rice), but it can be offset by heat and drought. In contrast, elevated CO2 only benefits C4 plants (maize, millet and sorghum) under drought stress. Under the most severe climate change scenario and without adaptation, simulated crop yield losses range from 7% to 23%. The adverse effects in higher latitudes could potentially be offset or reversed by CO2 fertilization and adaptation options, but lower latitudes, where C4 crops are the primary crops, benefit less from CO2 fertilization. Irrigation and nutrient management are likely to be the most effective adaptation options (up to 40% in wheat yield for higher latitudes compared with baseline) but require substantial investments and might not be universally applicable, for example where there are water resource constraints. Establishing multifactor experiments (including multipurpose cultivar panels), developing biotic stress modelling routines, merging process-based and data-driven models, and using integrated impact assessments, are all essential to better capture and assess yield responses to climate change. Warmer temperatures, increased CO2 concentrations and changing water availability affect cereal crop production. This Review examines changes in crop yield in response to these variables and discusses adaptation strategies.
{"title":"Climate change impacts on crop yields","authors":"Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Heidi Webber, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Jean Louis Durand, Frank Ewert, Pierre Martre, Dilys Sefakor MacCarthy","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change challenges efforts to maintain and improve crop production in many regions. In this Review, we examine yield responses to warmer temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide and changes in water availability for globally important staple cereal crops (wheat, maize, millet, sorghum and rice). Elevated CO2 can have a compensatory effect on crop yield for C3 crops (wheat and rice), but it can be offset by heat and drought. In contrast, elevated CO2 only benefits C4 plants (maize, millet and sorghum) under drought stress. Under the most severe climate change scenario and without adaptation, simulated crop yield losses range from 7% to 23%. The adverse effects in higher latitudes could potentially be offset or reversed by CO2 fertilization and adaptation options, but lower latitudes, where C4 crops are the primary crops, benefit less from CO2 fertilization. Irrigation and nutrient management are likely to be the most effective adaptation options (up to 40% in wheat yield for higher latitudes compared with baseline) but require substantial investments and might not be universally applicable, for example where there are water resource constraints. Establishing multifactor experiments (including multipurpose cultivar panels), developing biotic stress modelling routines, merging process-based and data-driven models, and using integrated impact assessments, are all essential to better capture and assess yield responses to climate change. Warmer temperatures, increased CO2 concentrations and changing water availability affect cereal crop production. This Review examines changes in crop yield in response to these variables and discusses adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134954627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00503-z
Sophie Ruehr, Trevor F. Keenan, Christopher Williams, Yu Zhou, Xinchen Lu, Ana Bastos, Josep G. Canadell, Iain Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, César Terrer
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink","authors":"Sophie Ruehr, Trevor F. Keenan, Christopher Williams, Yu Zhou, Xinchen Lu, Ana Bastos, Josep G. Canadell, Iain Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, César Terrer","doi":"10.1038/s43017-023-00503-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-023-00503-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00503-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135480604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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