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Building resilience in Asian mega-deltas 建设亚洲特大三角洲的抗灾能力
Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00561-x
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Amelie Paszkowski, Zilin Wang, Xiaohui Lu, Gordon Mitchell, Duc Dung Tran, Jeroen Warner, Jianfeng Li, Yongqin David Chen, Nan Li, Indrajit Pal, James Griffiths, Jiannan Chen, Wei-Qiang Chen, Yong-Guan Zhu
The five Asian mega-deltas (the Yangtze, the Pearl, the Chao Phraya, the Mekong and the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna deltas) are home to approximately 80% of the global deltaic population and the region experiences 90% of global flood exposure. In this Review, we investigate the similarities and differences between the Asian mega-deltas to identify transferable lessons to improve climate resilience. The deltas are increasingly threatened by coastal flooding, saline intrusion and erosion caused by climate change and human activities such as groundwater extraction and dam construction. Owing to differences in the stages of their development, various resilience measures have been implemented. For example, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas use strategic delta plans to identify risk hotspots and guide decision-making. These deltas also increase resilience at a community level by supporting communities to diversify their livelihoods to respond to changing risks and land conditions. Meanwhile, the Yangtze and Pearl deltas have developed forecasting and sensing technologies to allow them to prepare for and respond to hazards effectively. The Asian mega-deltas should learn from one another to integrate effective resilience plans across regional, delta and community levels. Future cross-delta collaborations and knowledge transfer, for example through the formation of a Regional Delta Resilience Alliance, could help to achieve long-term sustainable delta management. Climate change and human activities are increasing the exposure of deltaic communities to natural hazards. This Review discusses lessons that the Asian mega-deltas can share to develop long-term resilience strategies.
亚洲五大三角洲(长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、湄南河三角洲、湄公河三角洲和恒河-布拉马普特拉河-孟加拉河三角洲)居住着全球约 80% 的三角洲人口,该地区遭受了全球 90% 的洪灾。在本综述中,我们研究了亚洲特大三角洲之间的异同,以找出可借鉴的经验教训,提高气候抵御能力。由于气候变化以及地下水开采和大坝建设等人类活动,三角洲正日益受到沿海洪水、盐水入侵和侵蚀的威胁。由于其发展阶段不同,已经实施了各种抗灾措施。例如,恒河-rahmaputra-Meghna 三角洲和湄公河三角洲利用战略三角洲计划来确定风险热点并指导决策。这些三角洲还通过支持社区实现生计多样化来应对不断变化的风险和土地条件,从而提高社区一级的抗灾能力。与此同时,长江三角洲和珠江三角洲开发了预报和传感技术,使其能够有效应对灾害。亚洲特大三角洲应相互学习,在区域、三角洲和社区层面整合有效的抗灾计划。未来的跨三角洲合作和知识转让,例如通过成立区域三角洲抗灾联盟,将有助于实现长期可持续的三角洲管理。
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引用次数: 0
Economic quantification of Loss and Damage funding needs 损失和损害资金需求的经济量化
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00565-7
Massimo Tavoni, Pietro Andreoni, Matteo Calcaterra, Elisa Calliari, Teresa Deubelli-Hwang, Reinhard Mechler, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Leonie Wenz
A loss and damage (L&D) fund has been established to support particularly vulnerable developing countries. L&D funding needs, entitlements and necessary contributions can be quantified using climate economics coupled with historical responsibility principles; for the year 2025, total L&D funding needs are estimated to be US $395 [128–937] billion.
为支持特别脆弱的发展中国家,设立了损失和损害(L&D)基金。可以利用气候经济学和历史责任原则对损失和损害基金的资金需求、应享权利和必要捐款进行量化;估计 2025 年损失和损害基金的资金需求总额为 3,950 亿美元[1,28-9,37]。
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引用次数: 0
Fire effects on geomorphic processes 火灾对地貌过程的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00557-7
Luke A. McGuire, Brian A. Ebel, Francis K. Rengers, Diana C. S. Vieira, Petter Nyman
Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Sub-hourly rainfall intensity and burn severity control the magnitude of many post-fire geomorphic process rates through their influence on ground cover and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) make a substantial contribution to the post-fire sediment cascade, transporting sediment from hillslopes to channels, adjacent floodplains and alluvial fans. By the late twenty-first century, PFDF activity is estimated to increase in 68% of areas in which PFDFs have occurred in the past and decrease in only 2% of locations. Once altered by fire, geomorphic state variables — such as infiltration capacity, canopy cover, ground cover and sediment availability — can recover to their pre-fire value or be shifted to a new value. Improved understanding of the factors that influence these post-fire trajectories could support targeted management and intervention strategies. Additionally, monitoring that extends beyond the first 1–3 years after fire and deeper integration of ecohydrological processes into geomorphic models are needed to improve forecasts of post-fire geomorphic responses. Fire can increase the rates of geomorphic processes leading to rapid landscape change and sediment-related hazards. This Review outlines the factors and processes that influence the magnitude, temporal persistence and extent of fire-induced geomorphic changes.
由于火灾活动增加和降雨加剧,预计火灾引起的地貌变化(如侵蚀和泥石流活动增强)将随着气候变化而加剧。在本综述中,我们总结了景观属性、降雨量和燃烧严重程度如何在一系列时间和空间尺度上影响火灾后的地貌响应。亚小时降雨强度和燃烧严重程度通过对地面覆盖和降雨-径流分区的影响,控制着许多火后地貌过程速率的大小。火灾后的泥石流(PFDFs)对火灾后的沉积物级联做出了重大贡献,将沉积物从山坡运送到河道、邻近的洪泛平原和冲积扇。据估计,到二十一世纪末,在过去曾发生过 PFDF 的地区中,有 68% 的地区 PFDF 活动会增加,只有 2% 的地区会减少。地貌状态变量(如渗透能力、树冠覆盖率、地面覆盖率和沉积物可用性)一旦被火灾改变,就会恢复到火灾前的值,或转变为新的值。更好地了解影响这些火灾后轨迹的因素可以支持有针对性的管理和干预策略。此外,需要在火灾发生后的最初 1-3 年进行监测,并将生态水文过程更深入地纳入地貌模型,以改进对火灾后地貌反应的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring volcanoes with microgravity surveys 利用微重力测量监测火山
Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00563-9
Josefa Sepúlveda-Araya
Josefa Sepúlveda-Araya explains how microgravity surveys can be used to identify early warning signs of volcanic eruptions.
Josefa Sepúlveda-Araya 解释了如何利用微重力测量来识别火山爆发的早期预警信号。
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引用次数: 0
Using pyrocosms to determine fire impacts on soil molecules 利用高温模型确定火灾对土壤分子的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00562-w
Jacob P. VanderRoest
Jacob VanderRoest outlines the use of pyrocosms to identify specific molecules in burned soil from various ecosystems.
Jacob VanderRoest 简要介绍了利用高温分解态鉴定各种生态系统烧毁土壤中特定分子的方法。
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引用次数: 0
From academia to a career in documentary film-making 从学术界到纪录片制作生涯
Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00564-8
Erin Scott, Eleni Wood
To explore career opportunities outside of academia, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Eleni Wood about their career path from PhD student to a researcher at BBC Studios.
为了探索学术界以外的职业发展机会,《自然-地球与环境》杂志采访了埃莱尼-伍德(Eleni Wood),了解他们从博士生到英国广播公司工作室研究员的职业道路。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring, trends and impacts of light pollution 光污染的监测、趋势和影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00555-9
Hector Linares Arroyo, Angela Abascal, Tobias Degen, Martin Aubé, Brian R. Espey, Geza Gyuk, Franz Hölker, Andreas Jechow, Monika Kuffer, Alejandro Sánchez de Miguel, Alexandre Simoneau, Ken Walczak, Christopher C. M. Kyba
Light pollution has increased globally, with 80% of the total population now living under light-polluted skies. In this Review, we elucidate the scope and importance of light pollution and discuss techniques to monitor it. In urban areas, light emissions from sources such as street lights lead to a zenith radiance 40 times larger than that of an unpolluted night sky. Non-urban areas account for over 50% of the total night-time light observed by satellites, with contributions from sources such as transportation networks and resource extraction. Artificial light can disturb the migratory and reproductive behaviours of animals even at the low illuminances from diffuse skyglow. Additionally, lighting (indoor and outdoor) accounts for 20% of global electricity consumption and 6% of CO2 emissions, leading to indirect environmental impacts and a financial cost. However, existing monitoring techniques can only perform a limited number of measurements throughout the night and lack spectral and spatial resolution. Therefore, satellites with improved spectral and spatial resolution are needed to enable time series analysis of light pollution trends throughout the night. Increasing light emissions threaten human and ecological health. This Review outlines existing measurements and projections of light pollution trends and impacts, as well as developments in ground-based and remote sensing techniques that are needed to improve them.
全球光污染日益严重,目前有 80% 的总人口生活在光污染的天空下。在这篇综述中,我们将阐明光污染的范围和重要性,并讨论监测光污染的技术。在城市地区,路灯等光源产生的光辐射导致天顶辐射比未受污染的夜空大 40 倍。卫星观测到的夜间光照总量中,50% 以上来自非城市地区,其中包括交通网络和资源开采等光源。即使漫反射天光的照度很低,人工光也会干扰动物的迁徙和繁殖行为。此外,照明(室内和室外)占全球耗电量的 20%,占二氧化碳排放量的 6%,对环境造成间接影响,并带来经济损失。然而,现有的监测技术只能在整个夜间进行数量有限的测量,而且缺乏光谱和空间分辨率。因此,需要改进光谱和空间分辨率的卫星,以便对整夜的光污染趋势进行时间序列分析。不断增加的光辐射威胁着人类和生态健康。本综述概述了对光污染趋势和影响的现有测量和预测,以及改进这些测量和预测所需的地面和遥感技术的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods 冰川湖和溃决洪水的特征和变化
Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w
Guoqing Zhang, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Adam Emmer, Dan H. Shugar, Georg Veh, Xue Wang, Celeste Labedz, Martin Mergili, Nico Mölg, Matthias Huss, Simon Allen, Shin Sugiyama, Natalie Lützow
Global glacier mass loss has accelerated, producing more and larger glacial lakes. Many of these glacial lakes are a source of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which pose threats to people and infrastructure. In this Review, we synthesize global changes in glacial lakes and GLOFs. More than 110,000 glacial lakes currently exist, covering a total area of ~15,000 km2, having increased in area by ~22% dec–1 from 1990 to 2020. More than 10 million people are exposed to the impacts of GLOFs, commonly associated with dam failure or wave overtopping associated with mass movements. Although data limitations are substantial, more than 3,000 GLOFs have been recorded from 850 to 2022, particularly in Alaska (24%), High Mountain Asia (HMA; 18%) and Iceland (19%), the majority (64.8%) being from ice-dammed lakes. Recorded GLOFs have increased in most glaciated mountain regions of the world, with ongoing deglaciation and lake expansion expected to increase GLOF frequency further. In HMA, GLOF hazards are projected to triple by 2100, but changes in other regions will likely be lower given topographic constraints on lake evolution. Future research should prioritize acquiring field data on lake and dam properties, producing globally coordinated multi-temporal lake mapping, and robust and efficient modelling of GLOFs for comprehensive hazard assessment and response planning. Warmer temperatures enhance formation of glacial lakes that can suddenly and catastrophically release as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), threatening downstream lives and infrastructure. This Review outlines observed and projected changes in glacial lakes and GLOFs, reporting that both will increase with ongoing deglaciation.
全球冰川加速流失,形成了更多、更大的冰川湖。其中许多冰川湖是冰湖溃决洪水(GLOF)的源头,对人类和基础设施构成威胁。在本《综述》中,我们对全球冰川湖泊和冰湖溃决洪水的变化进行了综述。目前,全球有超过 11 万个冰川湖泊,总面积约为 1.5 万平方公里,从 1990 年到 2020 年,冰川湖泊面积增加了约 22%。超过 1,000 万人受到冰湖溃决的影响,这些影响通常与大坝溃决或与大规模运动相关的波浪倾覆有关。虽然数据有很大的局限性,但从 850 年到 2022 年,已记录的冰湖溃决事件超过 3000 起,尤其是在阿拉斯加(24%)、亚洲高山地区(HMA;18%)和冰岛(19%),其中大多数(64.8%)来自冰坝湖泊。在世界上大多数冰川覆盖的山区,记录在案的冰湖洪水都在增加,预计持续的冰川退化和湖泊扩张将进一步增加冰湖洪水的发生频率。据预测,到 2100 年,哈马河流域的冰湖洪水灾害将增加三倍,但鉴于地形对湖泊演变的限制,其他地区的变化可能较小。未来的研究应优先考虑获取有关湖泊和大坝特性的实地数据,绘制全球协调的多时空湖泊地图,并建立稳健高效的冰湖洪水模型,以进行全面的灾害评估和应对规划。气温升高会促进冰川湖的形成,冰川湖溃决洪水(GLOF)会突然爆发,造成灾难性后果,威胁下游生命和基础设施。本综述概述了冰川湖和冰湖溃决洪水的观测和预测变化,报告指出,随着冰川的不断退化,冰川湖和冰湖溃决洪水都将增加。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular insights and impacts of wildfire-induced soil chemical changes 野火诱发土壤化学变化的分子认识和影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00548-8
Alandra Marie Lopez, Claudia Christine E. Avila, Jacob P. VanderRoest, Holly K. Roth, Scott Fendorf, Thomas Borch
Wildfires act as important ecosystem controls and can benefit fire-adapted biomes by promoting habitat heterogeneity, seed germination and disease control. However, the frequency of high-severity fires and the extent of total burn area have increased since the 1970s, transforming both the organic and inorganic composition of soil. In this Review, we outline the molecular-scale transformations and biogeochemical interactions of soil organic matter (SOM) and metals induced by wildfires and explore their impacts on post-fire human health and ecosystem recovery. Wildfires enhance organic matter solubility and increase the number of nitrogen-containing SOM molecules by up to 32%. Additionally, wildfires can double the concentration of toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil and induce the formation of toxic metal species such as As(III) and Cr(VI) through redox reactions. In post-fire environments, pyrogenic organic matter is susceptible to microbial degradation and can interact with soil minerals to influence metal redox cycling. Moreover, post-fire products such as karrikins and PAHs promote and inhibit revegetation, respectively, influencing ecosystem recovery. Improved techniques to monitor changes in the soil and the surrounding ecosystem are needed to better understand and mitigate the negative effects of wildfires. Wildfires are important ecosystem regulators and can benefit many fire-prone ecosystems, but extreme fires can leave soils vulnerable to nutrient loss and contaminant transformations. This Review discusses fire-induced impacts on soil chemistry and post-fire soil, air and water recovery.
野火是重要的生态系统控制手段,通过促进栖息地的异质性、种子发芽和疾病控制,可使适应火的生物群落受益。然而,自 20 世纪 70 年代以来,严重火灾的发生频率和总燃烧面积不断增加,改变了土壤的有机和无机成分。在本综述中,我们概述了野火引起的土壤有机物质(SOM)和金属的分子尺度转化和生物地球化学相互作用,并探讨了它们对火后人类健康和生态系统恢复的影响。野火提高了有机物的可溶性,并使含氮 SOM 分子的数量增加了 32%。此外,野火会使土壤中有毒的多环芳烃(PAHs)浓度增加一倍,并通过氧化还原反应诱发有毒金属物种的形成,如 As(III) 和 Cr(VI)。在火灾后环境中,火成有机物容易被微生物降解,并与土壤矿物相互作用,影响金属氧化还原循环。此外,火灾后的产物(如卡里金和多环芳烃)会分别促进和抑制植被重建,从而影响生态系统的恢复。为了更好地了解和减轻野火的负面影响,需要改进监测土壤和周围生态系统变化的技术。
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引用次数: 0
Human amplification of secondary earthquake hazards through environmental modifications 人类通过改变环境放大地震次生灾害
Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00551-z
Emma M. Hill, Jamie W. McCaughey, Adam D. Switzer, David Lallemant, Yu Wang, Sharadha Sathiakumar
Anthropogenic climate change and modification of landscapes — such as deforestation, sediment movement, irrigation and sea-level rise — can destabilize natural systems and amplify hazards from earthquake-triggered landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and coastal flooding. In this Perspective, we examine the connections and feedbacks between human environmental modifications and secondary earthquake hazards to identify steps for hazard mitigation. Destabilization of slopes by vegetation removal, agricultural activities, steepening, loading and drainage disruption can amplify landslide hazards. For example, landslides were mainly triggered on deforested slopes after the 2010 and 2021 Haiti earthquakes. Liquefaction hazards are intensified by extensive irrigation and land reclamation, as exemplified by liquefaction causing >15 m of ground displacement in irrigated areas after the 2018 Palu earthquake. Degradation or removal of primary coastal vegetation and coral reefs, destruction of sand dunes, subsidence from groundwater withdrawal, and sea-level rise can increase tsunami inland reach. Restoration of natural coastal habitats could help decrease the maximum inland reach of tsunami, but their effectiveness depends on tsunami size. Sustainable farming practices, such as mixed crop cultivation and drip irrigation, can successfully reduce the saturation of soils and the liquefaction hazard in some situations. Future research should explore the potential of such sustainable practices and nature-based solutions in reducing earthquake-related hazards, in addition to their climate and ecosystem benefits. Human modifications to the environment can amplify the secondary impacts of earthquakes, such as landslides, liquefaction and tsunamis. This Perspective explores the relationships between environmental modification and earthquake-triggered hazards to identify potential solutions for hazard mitigation.
人为的气候变化和地貌改变--如森林砍伐、沉积物移动、灌溉和海平面上升--会破坏自然系统的稳定,扩大地震引发的山体滑坡、液化、海啸和沿海洪水的危害。在本《视角》中,我们将研究人类环境改造与地震次生灾害之间的联系和反馈,以确定减轻灾害的措施。植被清除、农业活动、陡峭化、荷载和排水系统破坏等造成的斜坡失稳会加剧山体滑坡的危害。例如,2010 年和 2021 年海地地震后,山体滑坡主要是在毁林斜坡上引发的。大量灌溉和土地开垦加剧了液化危害,2018 年帕卢地震后,灌溉区的液化导致地面位移达 15 米。原始沿海植被和珊瑚礁的退化或消失、沙丘的破坏、地下水抽取造成的沉降以及海平面上升都会增加海啸的内陆影响范围。恢复自然沿海生境有助于减少海啸的最大内陆波及范围,但其效果取决于海啸的规模。可持续的耕作方法,如混合作物栽培和滴灌,在某些情况下可以成功地降低土壤的饱和度和液化危险。未来的研究应探索这些可持续耕作方法和基于自然的解决方案在减少地震灾害方面的潜力,以及它们对气候和生态系统的益处。
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引用次数: 0
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