Pub Date : 2025-01-09DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z
Daniel L. Swain, Andreas F. Prein, John T. Abatzoglou, Christine M. Albano, Manuela Brunner, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Christopher B. Skinner, Danielle Touma
Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods. Rapid transitions between extreme wet and extreme dry conditions — ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ — have marked environmental and societal impacts. This Review outlines observed and projected changes in hydroclimate whiplash, suggesting that subseasonal and interannual volatility will increase markedly with ongoing warming.
{"title":"Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth","authors":"Daniel L. Swain, Andreas F. Prein, John T. Abatzoglou, Christine M. Albano, Manuela Brunner, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Christopher B. Skinner, Danielle Touma","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z","url":null,"abstract":"Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods. Rapid transitions between extreme wet and extreme dry conditions — ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ — have marked environmental and societal impacts. This Review outlines observed and projected changes in hydroclimate whiplash, suggesting that subseasonal and interannual volatility will increase markedly with ongoing warming.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"35-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Soil carbon is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and could be augmented through improved soil management to mitigate climate change. However, data gaps for numerous regions and a lack of understanding of the heterogeneity of biogeochemical processes across diverse soil landscapes hinder the development of large-scale representations of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. In this Perspective, we outline how understanding soil formation processes and complexity at the landscape scale can inform predictions of soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and soil carbon sequestration. Long-term alterations of the soil matrix caused by weathering and soil redistribution vary across climate zones and ecosystems, but particularly with the structure of landscapes at the regional scale. Thus, oversimplified generalizations that assume that the drivers of SOM dynamics can be scaled directly from local to global regimes and vice versa leads to large uncertainties in global projections of soil C stocks. Data-driven models with enhanced coverage of underrepresented regions, particularly where soils are physicochemically distinct and environmental change is most rapid, are key to understanding C turnover and stabilization at landscape scales to better predict global soil carbon dynamics. Soil carbon cycling is closely linked with landscape complexities in soil properties, climate and land use. This Perspective outlines how soil formation theory could provide insight on landscape-scale soil–carbon interactions as well as carbon sequestration and improve predictions of future soil organic matter dynamics.
土壤碳是陆地碳循环的重要组成部分，可以通过改善土壤管理来增加土壤碳含量，从而减缓气候变化。然而，众多地区的数据缺口以及对不同土壤景观中生物地球化学过程的异质性缺乏了解，阻碍了土壤有机质（SOM）动态大尺度表征的发展。在本《视角》中，我们将概述了解景观尺度上的土壤形成过程和复杂性如何为预测土壤有机质循环和土壤固碳提供信息。由风化和土壤再分布引起的土壤基质的长期变化在不同气候带和生态系统中各不相同，尤其是在区域尺度上与地貌结构有关。因此，假设 SOM 动态的驱动因素可以从局部直接扩展到全球，反之亦然的过于简单的概括会导致全球土壤碳储量预测的巨大不确定性。数据驱动的模型应加强对代表性不足地区的覆盖，尤其是土壤理化性质独特、环境变化最迅速的地区，这是了解碳在景观尺度上的周转和稳定，从而更好地预测全球土壤碳动态的关键。土壤碳循环与土壤特性、气候和土地利用等景观复杂性密切相关。本视角概述了土壤形成理论如何为景观尺度的土壤-碳相互作用以及碳固存提供见解，并改进对未来土壤有机质动态的预测。
{"title":"A landscape-scale view of soil organic matter dynamics","authors":"Sebastian Doetterl, Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Katherine Heckman, Corey Lawrence, Jörg Schnecker, Rodrigo Vargas, Cordula Vogel, Rota Wagai","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00621-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00621-2","url":null,"abstract":"Soil carbon is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and could be augmented through improved soil management to mitigate climate change. However, data gaps for numerous regions and a lack of understanding of the heterogeneity of biogeochemical processes across diverse soil landscapes hinder the development of large-scale representations of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. In this Perspective, we outline how understanding soil formation processes and complexity at the landscape scale can inform predictions of soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and soil carbon sequestration. Long-term alterations of the soil matrix caused by weathering and soil redistribution vary across climate zones and ecosystems, but particularly with the structure of landscapes at the regional scale. Thus, oversimplified generalizations that assume that the drivers of SOM dynamics can be scaled directly from local to global regimes and vice versa leads to large uncertainties in global projections of soil C stocks. Data-driven models with enhanced coverage of underrepresented regions, particularly where soils are physicochemically distinct and environmental change is most rapid, are key to understanding C turnover and stabilization at landscape scales to better predict global soil carbon dynamics. Soil carbon cycling is closely linked with landscape complexities in soil properties, climate and land use. This Perspective outlines how soil formation theory could provide insight on landscape-scale soil–carbon interactions as well as carbon sequestration and improve predictions of future soil organic matter dynamics.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"67-81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00642-x
Mojtaba Fakhraee, Peter W. Crockford, Kohen W. Bauer, Virgil Pasquier, Ichiko Sugiyama, Sergei Katsev, Morgan Reed Raven, Maya Gomes, Pascal Philippot, Sean. A. Crowe, Lidya G. Tarhan, Timothy W. Lyons, Noah Planavsky
{"title":"Publisher Correction: The history of Earth’s sulfur cycle","authors":"Mojtaba Fakhraee, Peter W. Crockford, Kohen W. Bauer, Virgil Pasquier, Ichiko Sugiyama, Sergei Katsev, Morgan Reed Raven, Maya Gomes, Pascal Philippot, Sean. A. Crowe, Lidya G. Tarhan, Timothy W. Lyons, Noah Planavsky","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00642-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00642-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 2","pages":"157-157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00642-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00631-0
Jennifer Jenkins, Beth A. Johnson, Kendall Valentine, Kendra J. Lynn
Fieldwork is integral to geoscience but can come with risks that increase for fieldworkers who are pregnant. Consultation with medical staff and completion of risk assessments are essential steps, but pregnant individuals also benefit from supportive colleagues, reasonable accommodations, and the freedom to adapt plans as pregnancy progresses.
{"title":"Considerations and perspectives on pregnancy and fieldwork","authors":"Jennifer Jenkins, Beth A. Johnson, Kendall Valentine, Kendra J. Lynn","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00631-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00631-0","url":null,"abstract":"Fieldwork is integral to geoscience but can come with risks that increase for fieldworkers who are pregnant. Consultation with medical staff and completion of risk assessments are essential steps, but pregnant individuals also benefit from supportive colleagues, reasonable accommodations, and the freedom to adapt plans as pregnancy progresses.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"2-3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using drones to investigate rock glacier kinematics","authors":"Melanie Stammler","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00628-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00628-9","url":null,"abstract":"Melanie Stammler explains how drones help reveal changes in rock glacier kinematics and elucidate the state of mountain permafrost.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"11-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-10DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00625-y
Madeleine Lewis
Madeleine Lewis explains how a needle and peristaltic pump system can be used to isolate supraglacial meltwater.
玛德琳·刘易斯解释了如何使用针和蠕动泵系统来隔离冰川上的融水。
{"title":"Using a vacuum to collect glacial meltwater from ice","authors":"Madeleine Lewis","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00625-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00625-y","url":null,"abstract":"Madeleine Lewis explains how a needle and peristaltic pump system can be used to isolate supraglacial meltwater.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"9-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-10DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00613-2
Gina M. Sarkawi, Lujia Feng, Jamie W. McCaughey, Aron J. Meltzner, Susilo Susilo, Umar Muksin, Anne Socquet, Rina Suryani Oktari, Suko Prayitno Adi, Roland Bürgmann, Emma M. Hill
In 2004, an earthquake of moment magnitude Mw 9.1–9.3 ruptured over 1,500 km of the Sunda megathrust under the Indian Ocean, producing a devastating tsunami and resulting in 230,000 fatalities and the displacement of nearly 1.7 million people. In this Review, we explore the lessons learned since the 2004 event, including advances in understanding Sumatran subduction-zone hazards and related disaster preparedness and risk communication. The 2004 earthquake triggered a series of aftershocks, including over 6,000 Mw ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in the first 10 years, two of which were Mw 8.6 and Mw 8.4 events, that ruptured much of the remaining Sumatran subduction interface. Ruptures of the Sumatran subduction interface are often bounded by persistent barriers associated with structural features, including fracture zones and seamounts, on the subducting oceanic plate. Although the entire plate boundary zone should always be prepared for earthquakes and tsunamis, the seismic gap in the Mentawai Islands highlights the need for enhanced preparedness in this region. The lack of tsunami early warning systems in the Indian Ocean before the 2004 tsunami prompted international efforts to help coastal populations protect themselves, which remain ongoing. Future communication efforts should ensure the public understands that no warning system is perfect, and it is safest to evacuate when there is any indication of a potential tsunami. Understanding of the Sumatran subduction zone and its hazards has increased since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. This Review commemorates the 20th anniversary of this event by outlining these insights and how they can inform future strategies to improve tsunami preparedness.
{"title":"Insights into tectonic hazards since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami","authors":"Gina M. Sarkawi, Lujia Feng, Jamie W. McCaughey, Aron J. Meltzner, Susilo Susilo, Umar Muksin, Anne Socquet, Rina Suryani Oktari, Suko Prayitno Adi, Roland Bürgmann, Emma M. Hill","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00613-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00613-2","url":null,"abstract":"In 2004, an earthquake of moment magnitude Mw 9.1–9.3 ruptured over 1,500 km of the Sunda megathrust under the Indian Ocean, producing a devastating tsunami and resulting in 230,000 fatalities and the displacement of nearly 1.7 million people. In this Review, we explore the lessons learned since the 2004 event, including advances in understanding Sumatran subduction-zone hazards and related disaster preparedness and risk communication. The 2004 earthquake triggered a series of aftershocks, including over 6,000 Mw ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in the first 10 years, two of which were Mw 8.6 and Mw 8.4 events, that ruptured much of the remaining Sumatran subduction interface. Ruptures of the Sumatran subduction interface are often bounded by persistent barriers associated with structural features, including fracture zones and seamounts, on the subducting oceanic plate. Although the entire plate boundary zone should always be prepared for earthquakes and tsunamis, the seismic gap in the Mentawai Islands highlights the need for enhanced preparedness in this region. The lack of tsunami early warning systems in the Indian Ocean before the 2004 tsunami prompted international efforts to help coastal populations protect themselves, which remain ongoing. Future communication efforts should ensure the public understands that no warning system is perfect, and it is safest to evacuate when there is any indication of a potential tsunami. Understanding of the Sumatran subduction zone and its hazards has increased since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. This Review commemorates the 20th anniversary of this event by outlining these insights and how they can inform future strategies to improve tsunami preparedness.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"17-34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142976677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00615-0
Mojtaba Fakhraee, Peter W. Crockford, Kohen W. Bauer, Virgil Pasquier, Ichiko Sugiyama, Sergei Katsev, Morgan Reed Raven, Maya Gomes, Pascal Philippot, Sean. A. Crowe, Lidya G. Tarhan, Timothy W. Lyons, Noah Planavsky
Sulfur is a critical component of Earth’s surface evolution owing to its dynamic roles as a redox buffer and nutrient as well as forming the basis for some of Earth’s earliest metabolisms. In this Review, we provide a broad-scale reconstruction of the biogeochemical sulfur cycle and its evolution through time. Insights gleaned through microscale observations, diagenetic modelling and organic sulfur together with traditional bulk sulfur isotope measurements highlight that links between variations in the isotopic composition of reduced and oxidized sulfur species are more complex than previously assumed. The most up-to-date evidence suggests that marine sulfate concentrations have been variable, but generally characterized by background levels (μM to low mM) substantially lower than today’s oceans (28 mM), for most of Earth’s history. The shift towards relatively stable modern-like marine sulfate cycling conditions started in the Phanerozoic eon, with the exceptions of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Feedbacks between ocean deoxygenation, climate and sulfur, iron, carbon and nutrient cycles are in need of further study to quantify the importance of key processes that both drove OAEs as well as maintained the low sulfate conditions that characterized the majority of Earth’s past. Modern low-sulfate systems, such as certain lakes and marine basins, could be key to further understanding such feedbacks and therefore Earth’s early sulfur cycle. Future research further constraining Earth’s past sulfur cycle may offer critical insights into the potential impacts of modern anthropogenically driven ocean deoxygenation. The redox transformations of sulfur mean it is a key component of global biogeochemical cycles. This Review explores the sulfur cycle over geological time, including its role during major climate perturbations, oceanic anoxic events and the evolution of life.
{"title":"The history of Earth’s sulfur cycle","authors":"Mojtaba Fakhraee, Peter W. Crockford, Kohen W. Bauer, Virgil Pasquier, Ichiko Sugiyama, Sergei Katsev, Morgan Reed Raven, Maya Gomes, Pascal Philippot, Sean. A. Crowe, Lidya G. Tarhan, Timothy W. Lyons, Noah Planavsky","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00615-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00615-0","url":null,"abstract":"Sulfur is a critical component of Earth’s surface evolution owing to its dynamic roles as a redox buffer and nutrient as well as forming the basis for some of Earth’s earliest metabolisms. In this Review, we provide a broad-scale reconstruction of the biogeochemical sulfur cycle and its evolution through time. Insights gleaned through microscale observations, diagenetic modelling and organic sulfur together with traditional bulk sulfur isotope measurements highlight that links between variations in the isotopic composition of reduced and oxidized sulfur species are more complex than previously assumed. The most up-to-date evidence suggests that marine sulfate concentrations have been variable, but generally characterized by background levels (μM to low mM) substantially lower than today’s oceans (28 mM), for most of Earth’s history. The shift towards relatively stable modern-like marine sulfate cycling conditions started in the Phanerozoic eon, with the exceptions of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Feedbacks between ocean deoxygenation, climate and sulfur, iron, carbon and nutrient cycles are in need of further study to quantify the importance of key processes that both drove OAEs as well as maintained the low sulfate conditions that characterized the majority of Earth’s past. Modern low-sulfate systems, such as certain lakes and marine basins, could be key to further understanding such feedbacks and therefore Earth’s early sulfur cycle. Future research further constraining Earth’s past sulfur cycle may offer critical insights into the potential impacts of modern anthropogenically driven ocean deoxygenation. The redox transformations of sulfur mean it is a key component of global biogeochemical cycles. This Review explores the sulfur cycle over geological time, including its role during major climate perturbations, oceanic anoxic events and the evolution of life.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 2","pages":"106-125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：