Each year, approximately 10,000 individuals die in alcohol-impaired traffic crashes in the United States, while psychoactive drugs are involved in 20% of all fatal traffic crashes. In this study, we investigate whether state-specific parity laws for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment have the added benefit of reducing traffic fatalities. Parity laws compel insurers to generously cover SUD treatment in private markets, thereby reducing the financial costs of and increasing access to treatment for beneficiaries. We employ 23 years of administrative data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) coupled with a differences-in-differences design to investigate the potential spillover effects of parity laws to traffic safety. Our findings indicate that passage of a parity law reduces traffic fatality rates by 5.8 to 8.6%. We also find that passage of parity laws reduces fatal alcohol poisonings and psychoactive drug overdoses. These findings suggest that government regulations requiring insurers to cover SUD treatment can significantly improve traffic safety, possibly by reducing the number of impaired drivers on roadways.
{"title":"Health Insurance and Traffic Fatalities: The Effects of Substance Use Disorder Parity Laws","authors":"Ioana Popovici, J. Maclean, Michael T. French","doi":"10.3386/W23388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23388","url":null,"abstract":"Each year, approximately 10,000 individuals die in alcohol-impaired traffic crashes in the United States, while psychoactive drugs are involved in 20% of all fatal traffic crashes. In this study, we investigate whether state-specific parity laws for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment have the added benefit of reducing traffic fatalities. Parity laws compel insurers to generously cover SUD treatment in private markets, thereby reducing the financial costs of and increasing access to treatment for beneficiaries. We employ 23 years of administrative data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) coupled with a differences-in-differences design to investigate the potential spillover effects of parity laws to traffic safety. Our findings indicate that passage of a parity law reduces traffic fatality rates by 5.8 to 8.6%. We also find that passage of parity laws reduces fatal alcohol poisonings and psychoactive drug overdoses. These findings suggest that government regulations requiring insurers to cover SUD treatment can significantly improve traffic safety, possibly by reducing the number of impaired drivers on roadways.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81168968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper creates a new database that covers all banks in the United States in the census years between 1870 and 1900 to test the interaction between inequality and financial development when the banking system was starting over from scratch. A fixed-effects panel regression shows that the number of banks per thousand people in the South has a strong positive relationship with the size of farm operations. This suggests that large Southern farm operators welcomed new banks after the Civil War. When the analysis is extended into the 1900s, the relationship becomes more negative, as bankers may have tried to block entrants.
{"title":"Did Inequality in Farm Sizes Lead to Suppression of Banking and Credit in the Late Nineteenth Century","authors":"Matthew S. Jaremski, P. Fishback","doi":"10.3386/W23348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23348","url":null,"abstract":"This paper creates a new database that covers all banks in the United States in the census years between 1870 and 1900 to test the interaction between inequality and financial development when the banking system was starting over from scratch. A fixed-effects panel regression shows that the number of banks per thousand people in the South has a strong positive relationship with the size of farm operations. This suggests that large Southern farm operators welcomed new banks after the Civil War. When the analysis is extended into the 1900s, the relationship becomes more negative, as bankers may have tried to block entrants.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80327843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hunter L. Clark, M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin
Concerns about the quality of China’s official GDP statistics have been a perennial question in understanding its economic dynamics. We use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an independent benchmark for comparing various published indicators of the state of the Chinese economy. Using the methodology of Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin (2016a and b), we exploit nighttime lights to compute the optimal weights for various Chinese economic indicators in a best unbiased predictor of Chinese growth rates. Our computations of Chinese growth based on optimal weightings of various combinations of economic indicators provide evidence against the hypothesis that the Chinese economy contracted precipitously in late 2015, and are consistent with the rate of Chinese growth being higher than is reported in the official statistics.
{"title":"China's GDP Growth May be Understated","authors":"Hunter L. Clark, M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.3386/W23323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23323","url":null,"abstract":"Concerns about the quality of China’s official GDP statistics have been a perennial question in understanding its economic dynamics. We use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an independent benchmark for comparing various published indicators of the state of the Chinese economy. Using the methodology of Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin (2016a and b), we exploit nighttime lights to compute the optimal weights for various Chinese economic indicators in a best unbiased predictor of Chinese growth rates. Our computations of Chinese growth based on optimal weightings of various combinations of economic indicators provide evidence against the hypothesis that the Chinese economy contracted precipitously in late 2015, and are consistent with the rate of Chinese growth being higher than is reported in the official statistics.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75698932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The dispersion of many economic variables is countercyclical. What drives this fact? Greater dispersion could arise from greater volatility of shocks or from agents responding more to shocks of constant size. Without data separately measuring exogenous shocks and endogenous responses, a theoretical debate between these explanations has emerged. In this paper, we provide novel identification using the open-economy environment: using confidential BLS microdata, we document a robust positive relationship between exchange rate pass-through and the dispersion of item-level price changes. We show this relationship arises naturally in models with time-varying responsiveness but is at odds with models featuring volatility shocks.
{"title":"Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?","authors":"David Berger, Joseph Vavra","doi":"10.3386/w23143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23143","url":null,"abstract":"The dispersion of many economic variables is countercyclical. What drives this fact? Greater dispersion could arise from greater volatility of shocks or from agents responding more to shocks of constant size. Without data separately measuring exogenous shocks and endogenous responses, a theoretical debate between these explanations has emerged. In this paper, we provide novel identification using the open-economy environment: using confidential BLS microdata, we document a robust positive relationship between exchange rate pass-through and the dispersion of item-level price changes. We show this relationship arises naturally in models with time-varying responsiveness but is at odds with models featuring volatility shocks.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"190 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80750722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent studies have reported a reversal of an earlier trend in income segregation in metropolitan regions, from a decline in the 1990s to an increase in the 2000-2010 decade. This finding reinforces concerns about the growing overall income inequality in the U.S. since the 1970s. Yet the evidence may be systematically biased to show an upward trend because the effective sample for the American Community Survey (ACS) is much smaller than it was for Census 2000, to which it is being compared. There is a possibility that the apparent changes in disparities across census tracts result partly from a higher level of sampling variation and bias due to the smaller sample. This study uses 100% microdata from the 1940 census to simulate the impact of different sampling rates on estimates of several measures of segregation and to propose and test the effectiveness of approaches to correcting the bias. It then applies those approaches to publicly available data for 2000 and 2007-2011. The reduction in sample sizes associated with the ACS results in exaggeration of evidence for increasing income segregation for all measures tested here, especially for subgroups (African Americans are studied here as an example). The methods of correction applied here will yield more conclusive and unbiased results when applied to the original sample data that is held internally by the Census Bureau.
{"title":"The Uptick in Income Segregation: Real Trend or Random Sampling Variance","authors":"J. Logan, A. Foster, Jun Ke, Fan Li","doi":"10.3386/w23656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23656","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies have reported a reversal of an earlier trend in income segregation in metropolitan regions, from a decline in the 1990s to an increase in the 2000-2010 decade. This finding reinforces concerns about the growing overall income inequality in the U.S. since the 1970s. Yet the evidence may be systematically biased to show an upward trend because the effective sample for the American Community Survey (ACS) is much smaller than it was for Census 2000, to which it is being compared. There is a possibility that the apparent changes in disparities across census tracts result partly from a higher level of sampling variation and bias due to the smaller sample. This study uses 100% microdata from the 1940 census to simulate the impact of different sampling rates on estimates of several measures of segregation and to propose and test the effectiveness of approaches to correcting the bias. It then applies those approaches to publicly available data for 2000 and 2007-2011. The reduction in sample sizes associated with the ACS results in exaggeration of evidence for increasing income segregation for all measures tested here, especially for subgroups (African Americans are studied here as an example). The methods of correction applied here will yield more conclusive and unbiased results when applied to the original sample data that is held internally by the Census Bureau.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80876045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
One of the most important outstanding questions in fundraising is whether donor premiums, or gifts to prospective donors, are effective in increasing donations. Donors may be motivated by reciprocity, making premium recipients more likely to donate and give larger donations. Or donors may dislike premiums, preferring instead to maximize the value of their donations to the charity; in this case donor premiums would be ineffective. We conduct a field experiment in conjunction with the fundraising campaign of a major university to examine these questions. Treatments include a control, an unconditional premium with two gift quality levels, and a set of conditional premium treatments. The conditional treatments include opt-out and opt-in conditions to test whether donors prefer to forego premiums. Compared with the control, donors are twice as likely to give when they receive an unconditional, high-quality gift. The low-quality unconditional and all conditional premiums have little impact on the likelihood or level of giving. Donors do not respond negatively to premiums: rates of giving do not suffer when premiums are offered. In addition, few opt out given the opportunity to do so, indicating that they like gifts, and suggesting that reciprocity rather than altruism determines the impact of premiums on giving.
{"title":"It's Not the Thought that Counts: A Field Experiment on Gift Exchange and Giving at a Public University","authors":"Catherine C. Eckel, David H. Herberich, J. Meer","doi":"10.3386/W22867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22867","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most important outstanding questions in fundraising is whether donor premiums, or gifts to prospective donors, are effective in increasing donations. Donors may be motivated by reciprocity, making premium recipients more likely to donate and give larger donations. Or donors may dislike premiums, preferring instead to maximize the value of their donations to the charity; in this case donor premiums would be ineffective. We conduct a field experiment in conjunction with the fundraising campaign of a major university to examine these questions. Treatments include a control, an unconditional premium with two gift quality levels, and a set of conditional premium treatments. The conditional treatments include opt-out and opt-in conditions to test whether donors prefer to forego premiums. Compared with the control, donors are twice as likely to give when they receive an unconditional, high-quality gift. The low-quality unconditional and all conditional premiums have little impact on the likelihood or level of giving. Donors do not respond negatively to premiums: rates of giving do not suffer when premiums are offered. In addition, few opt out given the opportunity to do so, indicating that they like gifts, and suggesting that reciprocity rather than altruism determines the impact of premiums on giving.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81043067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Katharine G. Abraham, J. Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky, James R. Spletzer
It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This result is robust to efforts to account for differences in labor market circumstances that might affect job-finding success rates. The findings are inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed and lend support to the state dependence explanation for the negative association between unemployment duration and subsequent employment rates. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.
{"title":"The Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data","authors":"Katharine G. Abraham, J. Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky, James R. Spletzer","doi":"10.3386/W22665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22665","url":null,"abstract":"It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This result is robust to efforts to account for differences in labor market circumstances that might affect job-finding success rates. The findings are inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed and lend support to the state dependence explanation for the negative association between unemployment duration and subsequent employment rates. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83905448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reports on an experimental test of a new market design that is attractive in theory but makes the common and potentially unrealistic assumption that “agents report their type†; that is, that market participants can perfectly report their preferences to the mechanism. Concerns about preference reporting led to a novel experimental design that brought real market participants’ real preferences into the lab, as opposed to endowing experimental subjects with artificial preferences as is typical in market design. The experiment found that market participants were able to report their preferences “accurately enough†to realize efficiency and fairness benefits of the mechanism even while preference-reporting mistakes meaningfully harmed mechanism performance. [Working Paper 22448]
{"title":"Bringing Real Market Participants' Real Preferences into the Lab: An Experiment that Changed the Course Allocation Mechanism at Wharton","authors":"Eric Budish, Judd B. Kessler","doi":"10.3386/w22448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w22448","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reports on an experimental test of a new market design that is attractive in theory but makes the common and potentially unrealistic assumption that “agents report their type†; that is, that market participants can perfectly report their preferences to the mechanism. Concerns about preference reporting led to a novel experimental design that brought real market participants’ real preferences into the lab, as opposed to endowing experimental subjects with artificial preferences as is typical in market design. The experiment found that market participants were able to report their preferences “accurately enough†to realize efficiency and fairness benefits of the mechanism even while preference-reporting mistakes meaningfully harmed mechanism performance. [Working Paper 22448]","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"162 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82651556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-07-01DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320170000038009
Sebastian Galiani, Patrick J. McEwan, B. Quistorff
This paper analyzes a geographic quasi-experiment embedded in a cluster-randomized experiment in Honduras. In the experiment, average treatment effects on school enrollment and child labor were large—especially in the poorest blocks—and could be generalized to a policy-relevant population given the original sample selection criteria. In contrast, the geographic quasi-experiment yielded point estimates that, for two of three dependent variables, were attenuated. A judicious policy analyst without access to the experimental results might have provided misleading advice based on the magnitude of point estimates. We assessed two main explanations for the difference in point estimates, related to external and internal validity.
{"title":"External and Internal Validity of a Geographic Quasi-Experiment Embedded in Cluster-Randomized Experiment","authors":"Sebastian Galiani, Patrick J. McEwan, B. Quistorff","doi":"10.1108/S0731-905320170000038009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-905320170000038009","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes a geographic quasi-experiment embedded in a cluster-randomized experiment in Honduras. In the experiment, average treatment effects on school enrollment and child labor were large—especially in the poorest blocks—and could be generalized to a policy-relevant population given the original sample selection criteria. In contrast, the geographic quasi-experiment yielded point estimates that, for two of three dependent variables, were attenuated. A judicious policy analyst without access to the experimental results might have provided misleading advice based on the magnitude of point estimates. We assessed two main explanations for the difference in point estimates, related to external and internal validity.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78511689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Carter, W. Dudley, David S. Lyle, John Z. Smith
Despite the importance placed on supervision in the workplace, little is known about the effects of a boss’ leadership quality on labor market outcomes such as employee job retention. Using plausibly exogenous assignment of junior officers to bosses in the U.S. Army, we find positive retention effects for those assigned to immediate and senior bosses who are good leaders. These effects are strongest for officers with high SAT scores. Junior officers who share the same home geographic region, high SAT, and undergraduate institution as their bosses who also have strong leadership qualities retain at the highest rates.
{"title":"Who's the Boss? The Effect of Strong Leadership on Employee Turnover","authors":"S. Carter, W. Dudley, David S. Lyle, John Z. Smith","doi":"10.3386/W22383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22383","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the importance placed on supervision in the workplace, little is known about the effects of a boss’ leadership quality on labor market outcomes such as employee job retention. Using plausibly exogenous assignment of junior officers to bosses in the U.S. Army, we find positive retention effects for those assigned to immediate and senior bosses who are good leaders. These effects are strongest for officers with high SAT scores. Junior officers who share the same home geographic region, high SAT, and undergraduate institution as their bosses who also have strong leadership qualities retain at the highest rates.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79104992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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