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Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information 可操作气候信息影响链的逆转
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w
Peter Pfleiderer, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chahan M. Kropf, Robin D. Lamboll, Quentin Lejeune, Tiago Capela Lourenço, Fabien Maussion, Jamie W. McCaughey, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Benjamin Sanderson, Lilian Schuster, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Emily Theokritoff, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thresholds, including at the local level, to emissions pathways. We outline the socioeconomic and value judgement dimensions that can inform the identification of such risk thresholds. The applicability of the approach is highlighted by three examples that estimate the required CO2 emissions constraints to avoid critical levels of health-related heat risks in Berlin, fire weather in Portugal and glacier mass loss in High Mountain Asia. We argue that linking risk threshold exceedance directly to global emissions benchmarks can aid the understanding of the benefits of stringent emissions reductions for societies and local decision-makers. Providing actionable climate information requires an end-user focused approach that links specific local climate risk thresholds with global emissions pathways.
气候变化的影响不断升级,突显了跨越可能不可逆的地球和社会生态系统阈值和适应极限所带来的风险。然而,在提供可采取行动的气候信息方面的限制可能会阻碍预期的反应。在此,我们建议扭转传统的影响链方法,将其作为一种以最终用户为中心的方法,将特定的气候风险阈值(包括地方层面的)与排放途径联系起来。我们概述了社会经济和价值判断的维度,可以告知这些风险阈值的识别。三个例子突出了该方法的适用性,这些例子估计了为避免柏林与健康有关的高温风险、葡萄牙的火灾天气和亚洲高山冰川质量损失达到临界水平所需的二氧化碳排放限制。我们认为,将风险阈值超标直接与全球排放基准联系起来,有助于理解严格减排对社会和地方决策者的好处。
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引用次数: 0
Preservation of organic carbon in marine sediments sustained by sorption and transformation processes 通过吸附和转化过程保持海洋沉积物中的有机碳
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01606-y
Peyman Babakhani, Andrew W. Dale, Clare Woulds, Oliver W. Moore, Ke-Qing Xiao, Lisa Curti, Caroline L. Peacock
Controls on organic carbon preservation in marine sediments remain controversial but crucial for understanding past and future climate dynamics. Here we develop a conceptual-mathematical model to determine the key processes for the preservation of organic carbon. The model considers the major processes involved in the breakdown of organic carbon, including dissolved organic carbon hydrolysis, mixing, remineralization, mineral sorption and molecular transformation. This allows redefining of burial efficiency as preservation efficiency, which considers both particulate organic carbon and mineral-phase organic carbon. We show that preservation efficiency is almost three times higher than the conventionally defined burial efficiency and reconciles predictions with global field data. Kinetic sorption and transformation are the dominant controls on organic carbon preservation. We conclude that a synergistic effect between kinetic sorption and molecular transformation (geopolymerization) creates a mineral shuttle in which mineral-phase organic carbon is protected from remineralization in the surface sediment and released at depth. The results explain why transformed organic carbon persists over long timescales and increases with depth. Kinetic sorption and transformation are primary controls on organic carbon preservation in marine sediments, according to reactive transport model simulations of the cycling and breakdown of particulate and mineral-phase organic carbon.
海洋沉积物中有机碳保存的控制仍然存在争议,但对于了解过去和未来的气候动力学至关重要。在这里,我们开发了一个概念数学模型来确定有机碳保存的关键过程。该模型考虑了有机碳分解的主要过程,包括溶解的有机碳水解、混合、再矿化、矿物吸附和分子转化。这允许将埋藏效率重新定义为保存效率,同时考虑颗粒有机碳和矿物相有机碳。我们发现,保存效率几乎是传统定义的埋葬效率的三倍,并且与全球现场数据的预测相吻合。动力学吸附和转化是有机碳保存的主要控制因素。我们得出的结论是,动力学吸附和分子转化(地聚合)之间的协同效应创造了一个矿物穿梭,在这个穿梭中,矿物相有机碳被保护起来,不受表层沉积物再矿化的影响,并在深处释放出来。结果解释了为什么转化的有机碳在很长的时间尺度上持续存在,并随着深度的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 0
Limited decrease of Southern Ocean sulfur productivity across the penultimate termination 南大洋硫生产力在倒数第二个终止期的有限下降
IF 18.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01619-7
Hubertus Fischer, Andrea Burke, James Rae, Patrick J. Sugden, Tobias Erhardt, Birthe Twarloh, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Bradley Markle, Mirko Severi, Margareta Hansson, Joel Savarino, Helena Pryer, Emily Doyle, Eric Wolff

Productivity in the Pleistocene glacial Southern Ocean was probably enhanced owing to iron fertilization by aeolian dust. Marine sediments indicate such an increase north of the modern Antarctic Polar Front but reduced biogenic activity south of it. However, quantitative estimates for the integrated net effect are difficult to obtain. Here we use the SO42− isotopic composition and other geochemical ice core records from the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct net changes in integrated biogenic sulfur productivity in the surface ocean over the penultimate glacial termination. We show that biogenic SO42− aerosol contributes 58% and 85% to the sulfate budget in Dronning Maud Land during glacial and interglacial times, respectively, and that biogenic sulfate is derived predominately from the seasonal sea ice zone. Using our quantitative reconstruction of biogenic aerosol production in the Southern Ocean source region, we show that the average biogenic sulfate production integrated over the Atlantic sector was 16% higher in the penultimate glacial 137,000–153,000 years ago compared with the later Last Interglacial 120,000–125,000 years ago. An intermittent decrease in productivity observed during early peak interglacial warming suggests that a reduction in the seasonal sea ice zone may disrupt Southern Ocean ecosystems.

更新世冰期南大洋的生产力可能由于风沙对铁的施肥而增强。海洋沉积物表明,现代南极极锋以北的生物活动增加,但其以南的生物活动减少。然而,很难获得综合净效应的定量估计。本文利用来自南大洋大西洋板块的SO42−同位素组成和其他地球化学冰芯记录,重建了第二次冰川终止期间海洋表面综合生物硫生产力的净变化。研究表明,在冰期和间冰期,生物源性SO42−气溶胶分别对Dronning Maud陆地的硫酸盐收支贡献了58%和85%,生物源性硫酸盐主要来自季节性海冰带。通过对南大洋源区生物成因气溶胶产量的定量重建,我们发现在137,000-153,000年前的倒数第二次冰期,大西洋板块的平均生物成因硫酸盐产量比在120,000-125,000年前的末次间冰期晚期高16%。间冰期变暖早期高峰期间观测到的间歇性生产力下降表明,季节性海冰带的减少可能会破坏南大洋的生态系统。
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引用次数: 0
Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment 北极湖泊沉积物中大量被忽视的温室气体排放
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01614-y
Nancy L. Freitas, Katey Walter Anthony, Josefine Lenz, Rachel C. Porras, Margaret S. Torn
Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback. Deep permafrost soils produce comparable amounts of greenhouse gases as shallow soils in response to warming, according to incubation experiments of deep Arctic lake sediments.
热岩溶湖导致永久冻土的突然和持续退化,并有可能向大气释放大量的古碳。尽管人们担心湖泊将如何影响永久冻土的碳反馈,但人们对深层永久冻土中二氧化碳和甲烷排放的规模仍然知之甚少。在这里,我们孵育了一个非常深的沉积物岩心(20米),以限制融化的Yedoma和其下的第四纪砂和砾石沉积物的潜在生产力。通过放射性碳定年,沉积物孵化和沉积物相分类,我们表明,在几十年到几百年的时间尺度上,湖泊下可能发生广泛的永久冻土融化。尽管人们一直认为浅层好氧二氧化碳的产生将主导永久冻土融化对气候的影响,但我们发现,以每克碳为基础,深层沉积物的厌氧二氧化碳和甲烷的产生与好氧二氧化碳和甲烷的产生相当,并且在较暖的温度下,其全球变暖潜势是其两倍。因此,北极深层沉积物中的碳释放对气候变化的影响可能比目前预期的更大。这些环境目前在对永久冻土碳反馈的估计中被忽视了。
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引用次数: 0
Increased urban ozone in heatwaves due to temperature-induced emissions of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds 由于温度引起的人为挥发性有机化合物的排放,热浪中城市臭氧增加
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01608-w
Momei Qin, Yongliang She, Ming Wang, Hongli Wang, Yunhua Chang, Zhaofeng Tan, Jingyu An, Jian Huang, Zibing Yuan, Jun Lu, Qian Wang, Cong Liu, Zhenxin Liu, Xiaodong Xie, Jingyi Li, Hong Liao, Havala O. T. Pye, Cheng Huang, Song Guo, Min Hu, Yuanhang Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Jianlin Hu
Urban ozone (O3) pollution correlates with temperature, and higher O3 often occurs during heatwaves, threatening public health. However, limited data on how anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) precursor emissions vary with temperature hinders understanding their impact on O3. Here we show that the increase in non-combustion AVOC emissions (for example, from volatile chemical products) during a heatwave in Shanghai contributes significantly to increased O3, on the basis of ambient measurements, emissions testing and air quality modelling. AVOC concentrations increase ~twofold when the temperature increases from 25 °C to 35 °C due to air stagnation and increased emissions. During the heatwave, higher concentrations result in an 82% increase in VOC OH reactivity. Air quality simulations reveal that temperature-driven AVOC emissions increases account for 8% (1.6 s–1) of this reactivity increase and enhance O3 by 4.6 ppb. Moreover, we predict a more profound (twofold) increase in OH reactivity of oxygenated VOCs, facilitating radical production and O3 formation. Enhanced AVOC emissions trigger O3 enhancements in large cities in East China during a heatwave, and similar effects may also happen in other AVOC-sensitive megacities globally. Reducing AVOC emissions, particularly non-combustion sources, which are currently less understood and regulated, could mitigate potential O3 pollution in urban environments during heatwaves. Ozone pollution is enhanced by increased non-combustion anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions during heatwaves, according to atmospheric measurements and modelling of ozone concentrations in a heatwave in Shanghai.
城市臭氧(O3)污染与温度有关,在热浪期间经常出现较高的O3,威胁公众健康。然而,关于人为挥发性有机化合物(AVOC)前体排放如何随温度变化的有限数据阻碍了了解其对O3的影响。本研究表明,基于环境测量、排放测试和空气质量模型,上海热浪期间非燃烧性AVOC排放(例如,来自挥发性化学产品)的增加对O3的增加有显著贡献。当温度从25°C升高到35°C时,由于空气停滞和排放增加,AVOC浓度增加约两倍。在热浪期间,较高的浓度导致VOC OH反应性增加82%。空气质量模拟表明,温度驱动的AVOC排放增加占反应性增加的8% (1.6 s-1), O3增加4.6 ppb。此外,我们预测氧化VOCs的OH反应活性会有更深刻的(两倍)增加,从而促进自由基的产生和O3的形成。在热浪期间,中国东部大城市的AVOC排放增加导致O3增加,全球其他对AVOC敏感的特大城市也可能发生类似的影响。减少AVOC排放,特别是目前尚不了解和监管的非燃烧源排放,可以减轻热浪期间城市环境中潜在的O3污染。
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引用次数: 0
Stories of mineral transformation 矿物转化的故事
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01622-y
Rebecca A. Lybrand
Chemical, physical and biological forces all act to weather minerals. Rebecca Lybrand explores how mineral transformations are ubiquitous in the environment and in our daily lives.
化学、物理和生物的力量都对矿物起作用。丽贝卡·莱布兰德探索了矿物转化在环境和我们的日常生活中是如何无处不在的。
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引用次数: 0
A case for pronunciation guides for place names in scientific publications 科学出版物地名读音指南案例
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01615-x
Danita S. Brandt
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引用次数: 0
Author Correction: No progress on diversity in 40 years 作者更正:40年来在多样性方面没有任何进展
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01625-9
Rachel E. Bernard, Emily H. G. Cooperdock
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引用次数: 0
Polar diatoms fade in the twilight zone 极地硅藻在过渡带中消失
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01620-0
Natalia Llopis Monferrer
The intense, efficient transfer of organic carbon from the surface to the deep Southern Ocean make it a key component of the global carbon cycle. Observations show that this process isn’t always driven by sinking diatom skeletons, which often don’t make it past the mid-depth twilight zone, challenging the understanding of how climate change may impact the region.
有机碳从表层向南大洋深处强烈而有效的转移使其成为全球碳循环的关键组成部分。观察表明,这一过程并不总是由下沉的硅藻骨架驱动的,硅藻骨架通常不会进入中深度的边缘地带,这对气候变化如何影响该地区的理解提出了挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Sulfur species and gold transport in arc magmatic fluids 弧岩浆流体中的硫种和金迁移
IF 15.7 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01601-3
Stefan Farsang, Zoltán Zajacz
The sulfur species present in magmatic fluids affect the global redox cycle, the Earth’s climate and the formation of some of the largest and most economic ore deposits of critical metals. However, the speciation of sulfur under conditions that are relevant for upper crustal magma reservoirs is unclear. Here we combine a prototype pressure vessel apparatus and Raman spectroscopy to determine sulfur speciation in arc magmatic fluid analogues in situ over a range of geologically relevant pressure–temperature–redox conditions. We find that HS−, H2S and SO2 are the main sulfur species in the experimental fluids, while the concentrations of S6+ species and S2− and S3− sulfur radical ions are negligible, in contrast to previous experimental work. The measured gold solubilities in the experimental fluids are highest when sulfur is dominantly present as HS− and H2S species and greatly exceed thermodynamic predictions. Our results imply that HS−, rather than sulfur radicals, accounts for the high solubilities of gold in magmatic–hydrothermal fluids. We also find that magmatic sulfur degassing is a redox process under oxidizing conditions and may lead to additional magma oxidation beyond that imparted by slab-derived fluxes and crystallization. There are three dominant sulfur species present in arc magmatic fluids: HS−, H2S and SO2. HS− controls the mobilization and transport of gold in arc magmatic–hydrothermal systems, according to in situ experiments on arc magmatic fluid analogues.
岩浆流体中存在的硫种类影响着全球氧化还原循环、地球气候和一些最大、最具经济价值的关键金属矿床的形成。然而,在与上地壳岩浆储层相关的条件下,硫的形态尚不清楚。在这里,我们将原型压力容器装置和拉曼光谱结合起来,在一系列地质相关的压力-温度-氧化还原条件下,原位确定弧岩浆流体类似物中的硫形态。与以往的实验结果相比,我们发现实验流体中的主要硫种是HS−、H2S和SO2,而S6+和S2−和S3−硫自由基离子的浓度可以忽略不计。当硫主要以HS -和H2S形式存在时,实验流体中测量到的金溶解度最高,大大超出热力学预测。我们的结果表明,HS−而不是硫自由基是岩浆热液中金的高溶解度的原因。我们还发现岩浆硫脱气是一个氧化条件下的氧化还原过程,并可能导致超出板源通量和结晶所赋予的额外岩浆氧化。
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引用次数: 0
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Nature Geoscience
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