Pub Date : 2024-10-04DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8
Chenyu Dong, Robin Noyelle, Gabriele Messori, Adriano Gualandi, Lucas Fery, Pascal Yiou, Mathieu Vrac, Fabio D’Andrea, Suzana J. Camargo, Erika Coppola, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Chen Chen, Davide Faranda, Gianmarco Mengaldo
The Pacific Walker circulation and the closely connected El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence the climate and weather of the tropical Indo-Pacific region. They specifically exert a strong control on the regional occurrence of weather extremes, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation and prolonged dry spells, which are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. However, climate models struggle to accurately simulate large-scale circulation changes in the tropics and thus their consequences for regional weather and future climate. Here we use high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2022 to study the occurrence trends of weather patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. We find that new large-scale synoptic situations that were rarely present before the 1990s have emerged in the Indo-Pacific, while some others that were prominent have disappeared. Those new synoptic situations are associated with an unusual proportion of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the region. These weather patterns are physically consistent with a trend towards a stronger Pacific Walker circulation, wetter and warmer conditions in Southeast Asia and drier conditions in the equatorial Pacific. These changes cannot be fully explained by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other relevant modes of interannual variability, and other factors such as global warming, aerosol forcing, external forcing mechanisms and nonlinear mode interactions may be contributing. Emerging weather patterns over recent decades are exacerbating extreme precipitation and heatwaves in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, according to a computation of trends in reanalysis data.
{"title":"Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns","authors":"Chenyu Dong, Robin Noyelle, Gabriele Messori, Adriano Gualandi, Lucas Fery, Pascal Yiou, Mathieu Vrac, Fabio D’Andrea, Suzana J. Camargo, Erika Coppola, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Chen Chen, Davide Faranda, Gianmarco Mengaldo","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8","url":null,"abstract":"The Pacific Walker circulation and the closely connected El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence the climate and weather of the tropical Indo-Pacific region. They specifically exert a strong control on the regional occurrence of weather extremes, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation and prolonged dry spells, which are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. However, climate models struggle to accurately simulate large-scale circulation changes in the tropics and thus their consequences for regional weather and future climate. Here we use high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2022 to study the occurrence trends of weather patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. We find that new large-scale synoptic situations that were rarely present before the 1990s have emerged in the Indo-Pacific, while some others that were prominent have disappeared. Those new synoptic situations are associated with an unusual proportion of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the region. These weather patterns are physically consistent with a trend towards a stronger Pacific Walker circulation, wetter and warmer conditions in Southeast Asia and drier conditions in the equatorial Pacific. These changes cannot be fully explained by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other relevant modes of interannual variability, and other factors such as global warming, aerosol forcing, external forcing mechanisms and nonlinear mode interactions may be contributing. Emerging weather patterns over recent decades are exacerbating extreme precipitation and heatwaves in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, according to a computation of trends in reanalysis data.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"979-986"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01537-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142370129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-03DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7
Chantelle A. Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Eleanor Burke, Camilla Mathison, Chris D. Jones, Richard A. Betts, Eddy Robertson, João C. M. Teixeira, Manoel Cardoso, Liana O. Anderson
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Paris temperature ambitions and remaining carbon budgets mostly use models that lack feedback among fire, vegetation and carbon, which are essential for understanding the future resilience of ecosystems. Here we use a coupled fire–vegetation model to explore regional impacts and feedbacks across global warming levels. We address whether the 1.5 °C goal is consistent with avoiding significant ecosystem changes when considering shifts in fire regimes. We find that the global warming level at which fire began to impact global carbon storage significantly was 1.07 °C (0.8–1.34 °C) above pre-industrial levels and conclude that fire is already playing a major role in decreasing the effectiveness of land carbon sinks. We estimate that considering fire reduces the remaining carbon budget by 25 Gt CO2 (~5%) for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C and 64 GtCO2 (~5%) for 2.0 °C compared to previous estimates. Whereas limiting warming to 1.5 °C is still essential for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, in many cases, we are already reaching the point of significant change in ecosystems rich in carbon and biodiversity. Only about 1.07 °C of climate warming above the pre-industrial level is required for fire to substantially diminish the effectiveness of global carbon sinks, suggesting that climate change has already been weakening carbon storage through fire, according to integrated model simulations that consider the interaction between fire and vegetation.
{"title":"Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C","authors":"Chantelle A. Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Eleanor Burke, Camilla Mathison, Chris D. Jones, Richard A. Betts, Eddy Robertson, João C. M. Teixeira, Manoel Cardoso, Liana O. Anderson","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7","url":null,"abstract":"To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Paris temperature ambitions and remaining carbon budgets mostly use models that lack feedback among fire, vegetation and carbon, which are essential for understanding the future resilience of ecosystems. Here we use a coupled fire–vegetation model to explore regional impacts and feedbacks across global warming levels. We address whether the 1.5 °C goal is consistent with avoiding significant ecosystem changes when considering shifts in fire regimes. We find that the global warming level at which fire began to impact global carbon storage significantly was 1.07 °C (0.8–1.34 °C) above pre-industrial levels and conclude that fire is already playing a major role in decreasing the effectiveness of land carbon sinks. We estimate that considering fire reduces the remaining carbon budget by 25 Gt CO2 (~5%) for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C and 64 GtCO2 (~5%) for 2.0 °C compared to previous estimates. Whereas limiting warming to 1.5 °C is still essential for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, in many cases, we are already reaching the point of significant change in ecosystems rich in carbon and biodiversity. Only about 1.07 °C of climate warming above the pre-industrial level is required for fire to substantially diminish the effectiveness of global carbon sinks, suggesting that climate change has already been weakening carbon storage through fire, according to integrated model simulations that consider the interaction between fire and vegetation.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 11","pages":"1108-1114"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01554-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-03DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01562-7
Jiafu Mao
As climate change accelerates, fire regimes are increasingly disrupting ecosystems and carbon storage. A modelling study reveals that fire is already acting to substantially weaken global carbon sinks, potentially undermining efforts to limit warming.
{"title":"Fires jeopardize world’s carbon sinks","authors":"Jiafu Mao","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01562-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01562-7","url":null,"abstract":"As climate change accelerates, fire regimes are increasingly disrupting ecosystems and carbon storage. A modelling study reveals that fire is already acting to substantially weaken global carbon sinks, potentially undermining efforts to limit warming.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 11","pages":"1072-1073"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-30DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y
Wolfgang Koeve, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Ivy Frenger
In the event of insufficient mitigation efforts, net-negative CO2 emissions may be required to return climate warming to acceptable limits as defined by the Paris Agreement. The ocean acts as an important carbon sink under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels when the physico-chemical uptake of carbon dominates. However, the processes that govern the marine carbon sink under net-negative CO2 emission regimes are unclear. Here we assessed changes in marine CO2 uptake and storage mechanisms under a range of idealized temperature-overshoot scenarios using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity over centennial timescales. We show that while the fate of CO2 from physico-chemical uptake is very sensitive to future atmospheric boundary conditions and CO2 is partly lost from the ocean at times of net-negative CO2 emissions, storage associated with the biological carbon pump continues to increase and may even dominate marine excess CO2 storage on multi-centennial timescales. Our findings imply that excess carbon that is attributable to the biological carbon pump needs to be considered carefully when quantifying and projecting changes in the marine carbon sink. The biological pump may dominate ocean carbon uptake under net-negative CO2 emissions, according to Earth system model simulations of temperature-overshoot scenarios.
{"title":"Marine carbon sink dominated by biological pump after temperature overshoot","authors":"Wolfgang Koeve, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Ivy Frenger","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y","url":null,"abstract":"In the event of insufficient mitigation efforts, net-negative CO2 emissions may be required to return climate warming to acceptable limits as defined by the Paris Agreement. The ocean acts as an important carbon sink under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels when the physico-chemical uptake of carbon dominates. However, the processes that govern the marine carbon sink under net-negative CO2 emission regimes are unclear. Here we assessed changes in marine CO2 uptake and storage mechanisms under a range of idealized temperature-overshoot scenarios using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity over centennial timescales. We show that while the fate of CO2 from physico-chemical uptake is very sensitive to future atmospheric boundary conditions and CO2 is partly lost from the ocean at times of net-negative CO2 emissions, storage associated with the biological carbon pump continues to increase and may even dominate marine excess CO2 storage on multi-centennial timescales. Our findings imply that excess carbon that is attributable to the biological carbon pump needs to be considered carefully when quantifying and projecting changes in the marine carbon sink. The biological pump may dominate ocean carbon uptake under net-negative CO2 emissions, according to Earth system model simulations of temperature-overshoot scenarios.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 11","pages":"1093-1099"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01541-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-30DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w
Xu Han, Jin-Gen Dai, Adam G. G. Smith, Shi-Ying Xu, Bo-Rong Liu, Cheng-Shan Wang, Matthew Fox
The Himalayas, which host glaciers, modulate the Indian Monsoon and create an arid Tibetan Plateau, play a vital role in distributing freshwater resources to the world’s most populous regions. The Himalayas formed under prolonged crustal thickening and erosion by glaciers and rivers. Chomolungma (8,849 m)—also known as Mount Everest or Sagarmāthā—is higher than surrounding peaks, and GPS measurements suggest a higher uplift rate in recent years than the long-term trend. Here we analyse the potential contribution of a river capture event in the Kosi River drainage basin on the renewed surface uplift of Chomolungma. We numerically reconstruct the capture process using a simple stream power model combined with nonlinear inverse methods constrained by modern river profiles. Our best-fit model suggests the capture event occurred approximately 89 thousand years ago and caused acceleration of downstream incision rates. Flexural models estimate this non-steady erosion triggers isostatic response and surface uplift over a broad geographical area. We suggest that part of Chomolungma’s anomalous elevation (~15–50 m) can be explained as the isostatic response to capture-triggered river incision, highlighting the complex interplay between geological dynamics and the formation of topographic features. The recent uptick in surface uplift of Chomolungma (Mount Everest) can be partly attributed to isostatic rebound due to increased erosion following a river capture event, according to river evolution and flexural modelling.
{"title":"Recent uplift of Chomolungma enhanced by river drainage piracy","authors":"Xu Han, Jin-Gen Dai, Adam G. G. Smith, Shi-Ying Xu, Bo-Rong Liu, Cheng-Shan Wang, Matthew Fox","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w","url":null,"abstract":"The Himalayas, which host glaciers, modulate the Indian Monsoon and create an arid Tibetan Plateau, play a vital role in distributing freshwater resources to the world’s most populous regions. The Himalayas formed under prolonged crustal thickening and erosion by glaciers and rivers. Chomolungma (8,849 m)—also known as Mount Everest or Sagarmāthā—is higher than surrounding peaks, and GPS measurements suggest a higher uplift rate in recent years than the long-term trend. Here we analyse the potential contribution of a river capture event in the Kosi River drainage basin on the renewed surface uplift of Chomolungma. We numerically reconstruct the capture process using a simple stream power model combined with nonlinear inverse methods constrained by modern river profiles. Our best-fit model suggests the capture event occurred approximately 89 thousand years ago and caused acceleration of downstream incision rates. Flexural models estimate this non-steady erosion triggers isostatic response and surface uplift over a broad geographical area. We suggest that part of Chomolungma’s anomalous elevation (~15–50 m) can be explained as the isostatic response to capture-triggered river incision, highlighting the complex interplay between geological dynamics and the formation of topographic features. The recent uptick in surface uplift of Chomolungma (Mount Everest) can be partly attributed to isostatic rebound due to increased erosion following a river capture event, according to river evolution and flexural modelling.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"1031-1037"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142330069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-30DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01557-4
Modelling of the evolution of the Kosi drainage basin near Chomolungma suggests that a river capture event occurred approximately 89 ka ago. Isostatic rebound due to this capture event could contribute 10–50% of the total rock uplift rate in the Chomolungma region and might partly explain Chomolungma’s renewed uplift rate and anomalous elevation.
{"title":"River capture enhances the uplift of Chomolungma","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01557-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01557-4","url":null,"abstract":"Modelling of the evolution of the Kosi drainage basin near Chomolungma suggests that a river capture event occurred approximately 89 ka ago. Isostatic rebound due to this capture event could contribute 10–50% of the total rock uplift rate in the Chomolungma region and might partly explain Chomolungma’s renewed uplift rate and anomalous elevation.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"961-962"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142330068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-27DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01539-6
Hen Brett, Jeroen Tromp, Arwen Deuss
Seismic waves traversing the inner core in a direction parallel to Earth’s rotation axis arrive faster than waves travelling in the equatorial plane. These observations have been explained in terms of a transversely isotropic inner-core model with a fast symmetry axis parallel to the rotation axis. In recent years, more complex models of the inner core have been developed containing strong regional variations such as hemispheres, isotropic layers and an innermost inner core, most of which assume spatially variable transverse isotropy with a fixed symmetry axis. Here we instead explain the travel times of inner-core-sensitive seismic waves in terms of tilted transverse isotropy, in which the magnitude of transverse isotropy is fixed, but the orientation of the symmetry axis is allowed to vary spatially. This model, derived from seismic tomography, fits travel time data and spatially variable fixed-axis models, yet requires fewer parameters. It features a central inner core with a strong alignment of the fast symmetry axis in the direction of Earth’s spin axis and two shallow caps beneath the Mid-Atlantic and the Indian Ocean/Indonesia regions with symmetry axes tilted towards the equatorial plane. This model indicates the potential for varying crystal orientations within the inner core, which would constrain inner-core dynamics. A seismic tomographic model shows that the directional dependence of the travel time of seismic waves through Earth’s inner core can be explained by a spatially varying orientation of the transverse isotropy symmetry axis, which is simpler than other proposed structures.
{"title":"Tilted transverse isotropy in Earth’s inner core","authors":"Hen Brett, Jeroen Tromp, Arwen Deuss","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01539-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01539-6","url":null,"abstract":"Seismic waves traversing the inner core in a direction parallel to Earth’s rotation axis arrive faster than waves travelling in the equatorial plane. These observations have been explained in terms of a transversely isotropic inner-core model with a fast symmetry axis parallel to the rotation axis. In recent years, more complex models of the inner core have been developed containing strong regional variations such as hemispheres, isotropic layers and an innermost inner core, most of which assume spatially variable transverse isotropy with a fixed symmetry axis. Here we instead explain the travel times of inner-core-sensitive seismic waves in terms of tilted transverse isotropy, in which the magnitude of transverse isotropy is fixed, but the orientation of the symmetry axis is allowed to vary spatially. This model, derived from seismic tomography, fits travel time data and spatially variable fixed-axis models, yet requires fewer parameters. It features a central inner core with a strong alignment of the fast symmetry axis in the direction of Earth’s spin axis and two shallow caps beneath the Mid-Atlantic and the Indian Ocean/Indonesia regions with symmetry axes tilted towards the equatorial plane. This model indicates the potential for varying crystal orientations within the inner core, which would constrain inner-core dynamics. A seismic tomographic model shows that the directional dependence of the travel time of seismic waves through Earth’s inner core can be explained by a spatially varying orientation of the transverse isotropy symmetry axis, which is simpler than other proposed structures.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"1059-1064"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01527-w
Veronika Eyring, Pierre Gentine, Gustau Camps-Valls, David M. Lawrence, Markus Reichstein
Earth system models have been continously improved over the past decades, but systematic errors compared with observations and uncertainties in climate projections remain. This is due mainly to the imperfect representation of subgrid-scale or unknown processes. Here we propose a next-generation Earth system modelling approach with artificial intelligence that calls for accelerated models, machine-learning integration, systematic use of Earth observations and modernized infrastructures. The synergistic approach will allow faster and more accurate policy-relevant climate information delivery. We argue a multiscale approach is needed, making use of kilometre-scale climate models and improved coarser-resolution hybrid Earth system models that include essential Earth system processes and feedbacks yet are still fast enough to deliver large ensembles for better quantification of internal variability and extremes. Together, these can form a step change in the accuracy and utility of climate projections, meeting urgent mitigation and adaptation needs of society and ecosystems in a rapidly changing world. A multiscale Earth system modelling approach that integrates machine learning could pave the way for improved climate projections and support actionable climate science.
{"title":"AI-empowered next-generation multiscale climate modelling for mitigation and adaptation","authors":"Veronika Eyring, Pierre Gentine, Gustau Camps-Valls, David M. Lawrence, Markus Reichstein","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01527-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01527-w","url":null,"abstract":"Earth system models have been continously improved over the past decades, but systematic errors compared with observations and uncertainties in climate projections remain. This is due mainly to the imperfect representation of subgrid-scale or unknown processes. Here we propose a next-generation Earth system modelling approach with artificial intelligence that calls for accelerated models, machine-learning integration, systematic use of Earth observations and modernized infrastructures. The synergistic approach will allow faster and more accurate policy-relevant climate information delivery. We argue a multiscale approach is needed, making use of kilometre-scale climate models and improved coarser-resolution hybrid Earth system models that include essential Earth system processes and feedbacks yet are still fast enough to deliver large ensembles for better quantification of internal variability and extremes. Together, these can form a step change in the accuracy and utility of climate projections, meeting urgent mitigation and adaptation needs of society and ecosystems in a rapidly changing world. A multiscale Earth system modelling approach that integrates machine learning could pave the way for improved climate projections and support actionable climate science.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"963-971"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-23DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01543-w
Jacob I. Chalif, Ursula A. Jongebloed, Erich C. Osterberg, Bess G. Koffman, Becky Alexander, Dominic A. Winski, David J. Polashenski, Karen Stamieszkin, David G. Ferris, Karl J. Kreutz, Cameron P. Wake, Jihong Cole-Dai
An industrial-era decline in Greenland ice-core methanesulfonic acid is thought to herald a collapse in North Atlantic marine phytoplankton stocks related to a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. By contrast, stable levels of total marine biogenic sulfur contradict this interpretation and point to changes in atmospheric oxidation as a potential cause of the methanesulfonic acid decline. However, the impact of oxidation on methanesulfonic acid production has not been quantified, nor has this hypothesis been rigorously tested. Here we present a multi-century methanesulfonic acid record from the Denali, Alaska, ice core, which shows a methanesulfonic acid decline similar in magnitude but delayed by 93 years relative to the Greenland record. Box-model results using updated dimethyl sulfide oxidation pathways indicate that oxidation by pollution-driven nitrate radicals has suppressed atmospheric methanesulfonic acid production, explaining most, if not all, of Denali’s and Greenland’s methanesulfonic acid declines without requiring a change in phytoplankton production. The delayed timing of the North Pacific methanesulfonic acid decline, relative to the North Atlantic, reflects the distinct history of industrialization in upwind regions and is consistent with the Denali and Greenland ice-core nitrate records. These results demonstrate that multidecadal trends in industrial-era Arctic ice-core methanesulfonic acid reflect rising anthropogenic pollution rather than declining marine primary production. Multidecadal declines in methanesulfonic acid in arctic ice cores reflect increasing anthropogenic pollution in the industrial era rather than declining marine primary production, according to analyses of a multi-century record of methanesulfonic acid from Alaska and atmospheric modelling.
{"title":"Pollution drives multidecadal decline in subarctic methanesulfonic acid","authors":"Jacob I. Chalif, Ursula A. Jongebloed, Erich C. Osterberg, Bess G. Koffman, Becky Alexander, Dominic A. Winski, David J. Polashenski, Karen Stamieszkin, David G. Ferris, Karl J. Kreutz, Cameron P. Wake, Jihong Cole-Dai","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01543-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-024-01543-w","url":null,"abstract":"An industrial-era decline in Greenland ice-core methanesulfonic acid is thought to herald a collapse in North Atlantic marine phytoplankton stocks related to a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. By contrast, stable levels of total marine biogenic sulfur contradict this interpretation and point to changes in atmospheric oxidation as a potential cause of the methanesulfonic acid decline. However, the impact of oxidation on methanesulfonic acid production has not been quantified, nor has this hypothesis been rigorously tested. Here we present a multi-century methanesulfonic acid record from the Denali, Alaska, ice core, which shows a methanesulfonic acid decline similar in magnitude but delayed by 93 years relative to the Greenland record. Box-model results using updated dimethyl sulfide oxidation pathways indicate that oxidation by pollution-driven nitrate radicals has suppressed atmospheric methanesulfonic acid production, explaining most, if not all, of Denali’s and Greenland’s methanesulfonic acid declines without requiring a change in phytoplankton production. The delayed timing of the North Pacific methanesulfonic acid decline, relative to the North Atlantic, reflects the distinct history of industrialization in upwind regions and is consistent with the Denali and Greenland ice-core nitrate records. These results demonstrate that multidecadal trends in industrial-era Arctic ice-core methanesulfonic acid reflect rising anthropogenic pollution rather than declining marine primary production. Multidecadal declines in methanesulfonic acid in arctic ice cores reflect increasing anthropogenic pollution in the industrial era rather than declining marine primary production, according to analyses of a multi-century record of methanesulfonic acid from Alaska and atmospheric modelling.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 10","pages":"1016-1021"},"PeriodicalIF":15.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142276887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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