Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01889-9
Caleb K. Walcott-George, Nathan D. Brown, Jason P. Briner, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Nicolás E. Young, Tanner Kuhl, Elliot Moravec, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Nathan T. Stevens, Benjamin Keisling, Robert M. DeConto, Vasileios Gkinis, Joseph A. MacGregor, Joerg M. Schaefer
Projections of future sea-level rise benefit from understanding the response of past ice sheets to warming during past Quaternary interglacials. Constraints on the extent of inland Greenland Ice Sheet retreat during the Middle Holocene (~8–4 thousand years before present) are limited because geological records of a smaller-than-modern phase largely remain beneath the modern ice sheet. We drilled through 509 metres of firn and ice at Prudhoe Dome, northwestern Greenland, to obtain sub-ice material yielding direct evidence for the response of the northwest Greenland ice sheet to Holocene warmth. Here we present infrared stimulated luminescence measurements from sub-ice sediments that indicate that the ground below the summit was exposed to sunlight 7.1 ± 1.1 thousand years ago. This proposed complete deglaciation of Prudhoe Dome, coeval to reduced extent at other ice caps across northern Greenland, is consistent with interglacial-only δ18O values from the Prudhoe Dome ice column and ice depth–age modelling. Our results point to a substantial response of the northwest Greenland ice sheet to early Holocene warming, estimated to be +3–5 °C from palaeoclimate data. This range of summer temperatures is similar to projections of warming by 2100 CE. The ~500-metre-thick Prudhoe Dome in northwestern Greenland completely deglaciated 7,000 years ago, highlighting the sensitivity of the ice sheet to mid-Holocene warming, according to luminescence and geochemical data from sub-ice sediments and ice cores.
{"title":"Deglaciation of the Prudhoe Dome in northwestern Greenland in response to Holocene warming","authors":"Caleb K. Walcott-George, Nathan D. Brown, Jason P. Briner, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Nicolás E. Young, Tanner Kuhl, Elliot Moravec, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Nathan T. Stevens, Benjamin Keisling, Robert M. DeConto, Vasileios Gkinis, Joseph A. MacGregor, Joerg M. Schaefer","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01889-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01889-9","url":null,"abstract":"Projections of future sea-level rise benefit from understanding the response of past ice sheets to warming during past Quaternary interglacials. Constraints on the extent of inland Greenland Ice Sheet retreat during the Middle Holocene (~8–4 thousand years before present) are limited because geological records of a smaller-than-modern phase largely remain beneath the modern ice sheet. We drilled through 509 metres of firn and ice at Prudhoe Dome, northwestern Greenland, to obtain sub-ice material yielding direct evidence for the response of the northwest Greenland ice sheet to Holocene warmth. Here we present infrared stimulated luminescence measurements from sub-ice sediments that indicate that the ground below the summit was exposed to sunlight 7.1 ± 1.1 thousand years ago. This proposed complete deglaciation of Prudhoe Dome, coeval to reduced extent at other ice caps across northern Greenland, is consistent with interglacial-only δ18O values from the Prudhoe Dome ice column and ice depth–age modelling. Our results point to a substantial response of the northwest Greenland ice sheet to early Holocene warming, estimated to be +3–5 °C from palaeoclimate data. This range of summer temperatures is similar to projections of warming by 2100 CE. The ~500-metre-thick Prudhoe Dome in northwestern Greenland completely deglaciated 7,000 years ago, highlighting the sensitivity of the ice sheet to mid-Holocene warming, according to luminescence and geochemical data from sub-ice sediments and ice cores.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 2","pages":"189-194"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145902934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01876-0
D. C. S. Vieira, P. Borrelli, S. Scarpa, L. Liakos, C. Ballabio, P. Panagos
Wildfires affect land surface and post-fire geomorphological activity worldwide, increasing surface runoff and soil erosion. However, a global quantitative assessment considering the cumulative effect of several wildfires is still missing. Here we present a global assessment of post-fire soil erosion, considering cumulative wildfire-driven geomorphological changes over the last two decades. We estimate global trends of post-fire soil erosion using a global database on wildfire occurrence and fire severity, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model together with the recovery of those burned landscapes by remote sensed data. Our results show that when considering multiple wildfire events, global post-fire soil erosion accounts for 8.1 ± 0.72 Pg annually, representing 19% of the global soil erosion budget and an additional 5.1 ± 0.56 Pg soil erosion annually in comparison to pre-fire conditions. Moreover, soil erosion attributed to the first post-fire year represents 31% of the total soil erosion, whereas the remaining share can be attributed to previous wildfire occurrences. Globally, Africa is the continent that is impacted the most in terms of post-fire soil erosion, given its substantially larger burned area. Our results illustrate the magnitude of post-fire soil erosion globally and therefore support post-fire management actions towards the mitigation and restoration of affected areas and policies towards land-degradation neutrality. Global post-fire soil erosion accounts for approximately 8.1 ± 0.72 Pg per year, or 19%, of total global soil erosion, and Africa is the most impacted continent given its larger burned area, according to a global assessment of soil erosion produced by wildfires over the last 18 years.
{"title":"Global estimation of post-fire soil erosion","authors":"D. C. S. Vieira, P. Borrelli, S. Scarpa, L. Liakos, C. Ballabio, P. Panagos","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01876-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01876-0","url":null,"abstract":"Wildfires affect land surface and post-fire geomorphological activity worldwide, increasing surface runoff and soil erosion. However, a global quantitative assessment considering the cumulative effect of several wildfires is still missing. Here we present a global assessment of post-fire soil erosion, considering cumulative wildfire-driven geomorphological changes over the last two decades. We estimate global trends of post-fire soil erosion using a global database on wildfire occurrence and fire severity, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model together with the recovery of those burned landscapes by remote sensed data. Our results show that when considering multiple wildfire events, global post-fire soil erosion accounts for 8.1 ± 0.72 Pg annually, representing 19% of the global soil erosion budget and an additional 5.1 ± 0.56 Pg soil erosion annually in comparison to pre-fire conditions. Moreover, soil erosion attributed to the first post-fire year represents 31% of the total soil erosion, whereas the remaining share can be attributed to previous wildfire occurrences. Globally, Africa is the continent that is impacted the most in terms of post-fire soil erosion, given its substantially larger burned area. Our results illustrate the magnitude of post-fire soil erosion globally and therefore support post-fire management actions towards the mitigation and restoration of affected areas and policies towards land-degradation neutrality. Global post-fire soil erosion accounts for approximately 8.1 ± 0.72 Pg per year, or 19%, of total global soil erosion, and Africa is the most impacted continent given its larger burned area, according to a global assessment of soil erosion produced by wildfires over the last 18 years.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"59-67"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01876-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145902933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01873-3
Qianru Zhang, Yuhang Wang, Maodian Liu, Young-Hee Ryu, Mingxu Liu, Huoqing Li, Si-Yi Wei, Junfeng Liu, Shu Tao, Xuejun Wang
Nitrogen is indispensable for global food production and ecosystem carbon sequestration, but excess nitrogen leads to water eutrophication, soil acidification and air pollution. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is a key yet uncertain component of the biogeochemical cycle. Currently, global networks monitoring particulate nitrogen dry deposition rely mainly on measured concentrations and modelled dry deposition velocities, which remain poorly constrained. Here we develop a spatially explicit dataset by integrating observation-constrained size distribution and dry deposition mechanisms to re-evaluate atmospheric nitrogen deposition across China. We reveal that atmospheric chemistry models underestimate the particle size of fine-mode nitrogen-containing aerosols in China by more than twofold. Additionally, dry particle deposition velocity estimates with different mechanisms diverge by up to two orders of magnitude. Our corrections indicate that atmospheric chemistry models and China’s observation network underestimate particulate nitrogen dry deposition by 2–5 times. Furthermore, most Earth system models underestimate particulate dry deposition of ammonium, a major nitrogen species, by 31%–98%. By integrating these corrections into the Community Land Model, we demonstrate that the effect of nitrogen deposition on China’s terrestrial net ecosystem productivity may have been underestimated by 9%–13%. As China contributes nearly 20% of global nitrogen deposition, its impact on terrestrial carbon sinks and ecosystem health could be greater than previously recognized. Atmospheric chemistry models and observation networks in China may underestimate particulate dry nitrogen deposition due to inadequate representation of the particle size distribution and dry deposition mechanisms, impacting nitrogen deposition modelling used for public health decisions and climate change projections.
{"title":"Underestimation of particulate dry nitrogen deposition in China","authors":"Qianru Zhang, Yuhang Wang, Maodian Liu, Young-Hee Ryu, Mingxu Liu, Huoqing Li, Si-Yi Wei, Junfeng Liu, Shu Tao, Xuejun Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01873-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01873-3","url":null,"abstract":"Nitrogen is indispensable for global food production and ecosystem carbon sequestration, but excess nitrogen leads to water eutrophication, soil acidification and air pollution. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is a key yet uncertain component of the biogeochemical cycle. Currently, global networks monitoring particulate nitrogen dry deposition rely mainly on measured concentrations and modelled dry deposition velocities, which remain poorly constrained. Here we develop a spatially explicit dataset by integrating observation-constrained size distribution and dry deposition mechanisms to re-evaluate atmospheric nitrogen deposition across China. We reveal that atmospheric chemistry models underestimate the particle size of fine-mode nitrogen-containing aerosols in China by more than twofold. Additionally, dry particle deposition velocity estimates with different mechanisms diverge by up to two orders of magnitude. Our corrections indicate that atmospheric chemistry models and China’s observation network underestimate particulate nitrogen dry deposition by 2–5 times. Furthermore, most Earth system models underestimate particulate dry deposition of ammonium, a major nitrogen species, by 31%–98%. By integrating these corrections into the Community Land Model, we demonstrate that the effect of nitrogen deposition on China’s terrestrial net ecosystem productivity may have been underestimated by 9%–13%. As China contributes nearly 20% of global nitrogen deposition, its impact on terrestrial carbon sinks and ecosystem health could be greater than previously recognized. Atmospheric chemistry models and observation networks in China may underestimate particulate dry nitrogen deposition due to inadequate representation of the particle size distribution and dry deposition mechanisms, impacting nitrogen deposition modelling used for public health decisions and climate change projections.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 2","pages":"137-144"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01872-4
Zhao-Feng Guo, Wiebke J. Boeing, Yao-Yang Xu, Edoardo Borgomeo, Othman A. Al-Mashaqbeh, Dong Liu, Xiao-Ru Yang
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pose inconsistent yet increasing threats to freshwater reservoirs worldwide, with implications for ecosystem health and water security. Although local-scale contamination has been widely documented, a comprehensive global synthesis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon occurrence and drivers in reservoirs remains lacking. Here we developed a framework of data compilation, arrangement and statistics to integrate existing data to determine the geographical distribution and potential sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution in reservoirs globally. Statistical analyses revealed spatial heterogeneity in dominant components and pollution levels across continents. Almost 38% of water samples exceeded an ecologically relevant threshold (0.20 μg l−1), and 42% of sediment samples surpassed the threshold effect concentration, indicating widespread ecological risks. Cluster analysis and source apportionment of the reservoir-level data identified three distinct polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon patterns, each shaped by region-specific land-use practices, combustion sources and climatic factors. These findings emphasize and inform the need for region-specific monitoring and management strategies, such as expanding monitoring in subtropical and temperate regions, with a focus on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon accumulation in aquatic organisms. Water and sediments in artificial reservoirs face increasing pollution from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and effective management depends on considering distinct chemical and regional patterns, according to analysis of a global dataset.
{"title":"Regionally distinct threats from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in global reservoirs","authors":"Zhao-Feng Guo, Wiebke J. Boeing, Yao-Yang Xu, Edoardo Borgomeo, Othman A. Al-Mashaqbeh, Dong Liu, Xiao-Ru Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01872-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01872-4","url":null,"abstract":"Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pose inconsistent yet increasing threats to freshwater reservoirs worldwide, with implications for ecosystem health and water security. Although local-scale contamination has been widely documented, a comprehensive global synthesis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon occurrence and drivers in reservoirs remains lacking. Here we developed a framework of data compilation, arrangement and statistics to integrate existing data to determine the geographical distribution and potential sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution in reservoirs globally. Statistical analyses revealed spatial heterogeneity in dominant components and pollution levels across continents. Almost 38% of water samples exceeded an ecologically relevant threshold (0.20 μg l−1), and 42% of sediment samples surpassed the threshold effect concentration, indicating widespread ecological risks. Cluster analysis and source apportionment of the reservoir-level data identified three distinct polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon patterns, each shaped by region-specific land-use practices, combustion sources and climatic factors. These findings emphasize and inform the need for region-specific monitoring and management strategies, such as expanding monitoring in subtropical and temperate regions, with a focus on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon accumulation in aquatic organisms. Water and sediments in artificial reservoirs face increasing pollution from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and effective management depends on considering distinct chemical and regional patterns, according to analysis of a global dataset.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"68-74"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y
Molly O. Patterson, Christiana Rosenberg, Osamu Seki, Masanobu Yamamoto, Oscar E. Romero, Mei Nelissen, Francesca Sangiorgi, Nicholas R. Golledge, Georgia Grant, William D. Arnuk, Benjamin Keisling, Timothy Naish, Richard Levy, Stephen Meyers, Nicholas Sullivan, Jeanine Ash, Denise Kulhanek, Brian W. Romans, Natalia Varela Valenzuela, Harold Jones, Francois Beny, Imogen Browne, Giuseppe Cortese, Isobela M. C. Sousa, Justin P. Dodd, Oliver M. Esper, Jenny Gales, David Harwood, Saki Ishino, Sookwan Kim, Sunghan Kim, Jan S. Laberg, R. Mark Leckie, Juliane Müller, Amelia Shevenell, Shiv Singh, Saiko T. Sugisaki, Tina van de Flierdt, Tim van Peer, Wenshen Xiao, Zhifang Xiong, Laura De Santis, Robert McKay
Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet responded to different natural forcing mechanisms than the East Antarctic Ice Sheet through the mid-Pliocene due to a greater sensitivity to oceanic feedbacks, according to iceberg-rafted debris records and ice-sheet modelling experiments.
{"title":"Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene","authors":"Molly O. Patterson, Christiana Rosenberg, Osamu Seki, Masanobu Yamamoto, Oscar E. Romero, Mei Nelissen, Francesca Sangiorgi, Nicholas R. Golledge, Georgia Grant, William D. Arnuk, Benjamin Keisling, Timothy Naish, Richard Levy, Stephen Meyers, Nicholas Sullivan, Jeanine Ash, Denise Kulhanek, Brian W. Romans, Natalia Varela Valenzuela, Harold Jones, Francois Beny, Imogen Browne, Giuseppe Cortese, Isobela M. C. Sousa, Justin P. Dodd, Oliver M. Esper, Jenny Gales, David Harwood, Saki Ishino, Sookwan Kim, Sunghan Kim, Jan S. Laberg, R. Mark Leckie, Juliane Müller, Amelia Shevenell, Shiv Singh, Saiko T. Sugisaki, Tina van de Flierdt, Tim van Peer, Wenshen Xiao, Zhifang Xiong, Laura De Santis, Robert McKay","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y","url":null,"abstract":"Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet responded to different natural forcing mechanisms than the East Antarctic Ice Sheet through the mid-Pliocene due to a greater sensitivity to oceanic feedbacks, according to iceberg-rafted debris records and ice-sheet modelling experiments.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 2","pages":"182-188"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0
Francesco Battaglioli, Mateusz Taszarek, Pieter Groenemeijer, Tomáš Púčik, Anja Rädler
Hailstorms producing hail larger than 5 cm cause the most severe damage to property and infrastructure, often leading to multibillion-dollar losses. Here we develop a global climatology of these very large hail events from 1950 to 2023 by combining statistical modelling with atmospheric reanalysis and examine trends in their frequency and related economic impacts. Northern Argentina emerges as the global hotspot of very large hail events, followed by Uruguay, Paraguay, southern Brazil, the US Great Plains and South Africa. Asia—and to a lesser extent, Europe and Australia—show substantially lower frequencies. Europe is seeing the sharpest rise in the frequency of very large hail events, driven by increasing low-level moisture and atmospheric instability. By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere—especially South America—is experiencing notable declines, linked to reduced mid-level humidity and instability. Hail-related losses have increased in the USA, Australia and Europe. In Europe, the rise is mainly due to more frequent very large hail events, whereas in the USA and Australia, increasing exposure and vulnerability are the primary drivers. These contrasting regional trends in hail frequency and related losses underscore the need for tailored risk management strategies that account for both climatic drivers and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The frequency of very large hail events between 1950 and 2023 increased most in Europe and decreased most in South America because of variations in atmospheric humidity and instability, according to a statistical model analysis.
{"title":"Contrasting trends in very large hail events and related economic losses across the globe","authors":"Francesco Battaglioli, Mateusz Taszarek, Pieter Groenemeijer, Tomáš Púčik, Anja Rädler","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0","url":null,"abstract":"Hailstorms producing hail larger than 5 cm cause the most severe damage to property and infrastructure, often leading to multibillion-dollar losses. Here we develop a global climatology of these very large hail events from 1950 to 2023 by combining statistical modelling with atmospheric reanalysis and examine trends in their frequency and related economic impacts. Northern Argentina emerges as the global hotspot of very large hail events, followed by Uruguay, Paraguay, southern Brazil, the US Great Plains and South Africa. Asia—and to a lesser extent, Europe and Australia—show substantially lower frequencies. Europe is seeing the sharpest rise in the frequency of very large hail events, driven by increasing low-level moisture and atmospheric instability. By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere—especially South America—is experiencing notable declines, linked to reduced mid-level humidity and instability. Hail-related losses have increased in the USA, Australia and Europe. In Europe, the rise is mainly due to more frequent very large hail events, whereas in the USA and Australia, increasing exposure and vulnerability are the primary drivers. These contrasting regional trends in hail frequency and related losses underscore the need for tailored risk management strategies that account for both climatic drivers and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The frequency of very large hail events between 1950 and 2023 increased most in Europe and decreased most in South America because of variations in atmospheric humidity and instability, according to a statistical model analysis.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"52-58"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01868-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145950807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01870-6
Jacob S. Slawson, Piret Plink-Bjorklund, Thomas Reichler, Daniel Baldassare
Warming is pushing Earthʼs system towards unfamiliar climate conditions, complicating predictions. Geological archives of past greenhouse climates provide essential tests for models under extreme forcing. We investigate how precipitation responded to extreme warmth during early Palaeogene global warming events (66–47.8 million years ago)—a period considered a possible analogue for worst-case future scenarios. Here we compile global palaeoclimate data and develop a multi-proxy approach that integrates sedimentary proxies—such as plant fossils, ancient soils and river deposits—providing constraints on global precipitation intermittency (seasonal and interannual variability) and intensity (rainfall rate). The data reveal wet or monsoonal polar regions and aridity punctuated by intense rainfall at mid- and low-latitude continental interiors. This hydroclimate shift occurred 3 million years before and persisted 7 million years after the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum—the warmest period of the Cenozoic Era, suggesting that extreme warmth induces nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle’s sensitivity to temperature increase. Polar humidity and mid-latitude aridity further indicate a departure from the expected wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier response. Shifts towards aridity were decoupled from mean annual precipitation and driven by seasonal and interannual precipitation distribution, such as shorter wet-season lengths and longer interannual rainfall recurrence intervals. This highlights the importance of considering precipitation intermittency and intensity, as similar shifts may occur under future warming despite differences in boundary conditions. Mid-latitude precipitation became less frequent but more intense through the early Palaeogene, reflecting a global hydroclimate response to extreme warming, according to a global multi-proxy reconstruction of precipitation characteristics.
{"title":"More intermittent mid-latitude precipitation accompanied extreme early Palaeogene warmth","authors":"Jacob S. Slawson, Piret Plink-Bjorklund, Thomas Reichler, Daniel Baldassare","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01870-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01870-6","url":null,"abstract":"Warming is pushing Earthʼs system towards unfamiliar climate conditions, complicating predictions. Geological archives of past greenhouse climates provide essential tests for models under extreme forcing. We investigate how precipitation responded to extreme warmth during early Palaeogene global warming events (66–47.8 million years ago)—a period considered a possible analogue for worst-case future scenarios. Here we compile global palaeoclimate data and develop a multi-proxy approach that integrates sedimentary proxies—such as plant fossils, ancient soils and river deposits—providing constraints on global precipitation intermittency (seasonal and interannual variability) and intensity (rainfall rate). The data reveal wet or monsoonal polar regions and aridity punctuated by intense rainfall at mid- and low-latitude continental interiors. This hydroclimate shift occurred 3 million years before and persisted 7 million years after the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum—the warmest period of the Cenozoic Era, suggesting that extreme warmth induces nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle’s sensitivity to temperature increase. Polar humidity and mid-latitude aridity further indicate a departure from the expected wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier response. Shifts towards aridity were decoupled from mean annual precipitation and driven by seasonal and interannual precipitation distribution, such as shorter wet-season lengths and longer interannual rainfall recurrence intervals. This highlights the importance of considering precipitation intermittency and intensity, as similar shifts may occur under future warming despite differences in boundary conditions. Mid-latitude precipitation became less frequent but more intense through the early Palaeogene, reflecting a global hydroclimate response to extreme warming, according to a global multi-proxy reconstruction of precipitation characteristics.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"120-127"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145801598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01892-0
Hatice Ünal Ercan
Kaolinite, a clay mineral formed through weathering, has long been used in porcelain and is increasingly valued as a building block of modern nanomaterials. Hatice Ünal Ercan examines the broad utility of this mineral, first identified in China more than two millennia ago.
{"title":"Kaolinite’s many lives","authors":"Hatice Ünal Ercan","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01892-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01892-0","url":null,"abstract":"Kaolinite, a clay mineral formed through weathering, has long been used in porcelain and is increasingly valued as a building block of modern nanomaterials. Hatice Ünal Ercan examines the broad utility of this mineral, first identified in China more than two millennia ago.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"9-9"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145950804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01882-2
Adam John Jeffery, Steven Leslie Rogers, Kelly Louise Ann Jeffery, Mark Lucherini, Jamie Keith Pringle, Martin Griffin
Autism remains an under-recognized and under-represented aspect of inclusivity conversations in geosciences. We highlight an urgent need for support and recognition of autistic learners, alongside a need to integrate autistic voices in learning and teaching practices.
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Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2
Wenyu Zhou, L. Ruby Leung, Chuan-Chieh Chang, Ming Zhao, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Hsin-Chien Liang, Chia-Ying Tu, Karthik Balaguru, Jian Lu
Since 1980, tropical cyclones have migrated poleward, but it remains unclear whether this trend reflects long-term climate change or temporary climate variability. Here we investigate the drivers of this poleward migration using multiple observational datasets and global models that permit tropical cyclones. We show that a tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates the interannual variation of cyclone latitudes and largely drove the poleward migration over 1980–2024. The tripolar pattern influences tropical cyclones more effectively than either the El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Hadley circulation. When its effects are removed, poleward migration is negligible. When it shows negative trends, the model simulates equatorward migration. As the pattern exhibits alternating multi-decadal trends but no long-term trend since 1970, its recent trend—and the associated poleward migration—is unlikely to persist. In ensemble projections under a warming scenario, tropical cyclone activity decreases overall, leading to fewer occurrences at high latitudes despite the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. These results indicate that climate variability has played a dominant role in the observed poleward migration of tropical cyclones, and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends. A tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates tropical cyclone latitudes and largely determined their poleward migration during the period 1980–2024, according to a data-model analysis.
{"title":"Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability","authors":"Wenyu Zhou, L. Ruby Leung, Chuan-Chieh Chang, Ming Zhao, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Hsin-Chien Liang, Chia-Ying Tu, Karthik Balaguru, Jian Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2","url":null,"abstract":"Since 1980, tropical cyclones have migrated poleward, but it remains unclear whether this trend reflects long-term climate change or temporary climate variability. Here we investigate the drivers of this poleward migration using multiple observational datasets and global models that permit tropical cyclones. We show that a tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates the interannual variation of cyclone latitudes and largely drove the poleward migration over 1980–2024. The tripolar pattern influences tropical cyclones more effectively than either the El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Hadley circulation. When its effects are removed, poleward migration is negligible. When it shows negative trends, the model simulates equatorward migration. As the pattern exhibits alternating multi-decadal trends but no long-term trend since 1970, its recent trend—and the associated poleward migration—is unlikely to persist. In ensemble projections under a warming scenario, tropical cyclone activity decreases overall, leading to fewer occurrences at high latitudes despite the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. These results indicate that climate variability has played a dominant role in the observed poleward migration of tropical cyclones, and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends. A tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates tropical cyclone latitudes and largely determined their poleward migration during the period 1980–2024, according to a data-model analysis.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 1","pages":"42-51"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145759490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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