Pub Date : 2026-03-02DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01942-1
Chunshui Lin, Darius Ceburnis, Anna Trubetskaya, Lu Lei, Shan Wang, Yi Liu, Wei Yuan, Haitao Cui, William Smith, Robert Johnson, Kirsten N. Fossum, Vasily Lebedev, Vincent Carré, Rory F. D. Monaghan, Douglas Worsnop, Lidia Morawska, Tao Wang, Ru-Jin Huang, Colin O’Dowd, Jurgita Ovadnevaite
Despite national variations, current air quality standards worldwide focus on reducing mass concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter to lower public health risks. However, these standards fall short in addressing the adverse health effects associated with ultrafine particles, which can penetrate deeper into the human lungs and even pass the blood–brain barrier. Here we present experimental, model and field data in addition to a lung deposition analysis to show there is a rise in ultrafine particle resulting from the transition to ‘low-smoke’ fuels in the residential sector. These low-smoke fuels, designed to lower particulate mass emissions, have unexpectedly led to a two-to-threefold increase in the emissions of ultrafine particle numbers, resulting in a higher contribution to lung deposition particles than all their smoky counterparts combined. Current air quality models underestimate ultrafine particles by a factor of ten, suggesting an underestimation of the health impacts when only particle mass was considered. These ultrafine particle events contrast sharply with the haze events that typically involve larger accumulation mode particles. Our findings highlight the urgent need to revise air quality standards to include ultrafine particles, ensuring air quality management strategies reduce mass concentration without the cost of increasing ultrafine particle number.
{"title":"Low-smoke fuels for residential heating linked to an increase in ultrafine particle emissions","authors":"Chunshui Lin, Darius Ceburnis, Anna Trubetskaya, Lu Lei, Shan Wang, Yi Liu, Wei Yuan, Haitao Cui, William Smith, Robert Johnson, Kirsten N. Fossum, Vasily Lebedev, Vincent Carré, Rory F. D. Monaghan, Douglas Worsnop, Lidia Morawska, Tao Wang, Ru-Jin Huang, Colin O’Dowd, Jurgita Ovadnevaite","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01942-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01942-1","url":null,"abstract":"Despite national variations, current air quality standards worldwide focus on reducing mass concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter to lower public health risks. However, these standards fall short in addressing the adverse health effects associated with ultrafine particles, which can penetrate deeper into the human lungs and even pass the blood–brain barrier. Here we present experimental, model and field data in addition to a lung deposition analysis to show there is a rise in ultrafine particle resulting from the transition to ‘low-smoke’ fuels in the residential sector. These low-smoke fuels, designed to lower particulate mass emissions, have unexpectedly led to a two-to-threefold increase in the emissions of ultrafine particle numbers, resulting in a higher contribution to lung deposition particles than all their smoky counterparts combined. Current air quality models underestimate ultrafine particles by a factor of ten, suggesting an underestimation of the health impacts when only particle mass was considered. These ultrafine particle events contrast sharply with the haze events that typically involve larger accumulation mode particles. Our findings highlight the urgent need to revise air quality standards to include ultrafine particles, ensuring air quality management strategies reduce mass concentration without the cost of increasing ultrafine particle number.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147346798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-02DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01927-0
Zheng Chen, Dieter Rickenmann, Alexandre Badoux, Siming He, Xixi Lu
Bedload transport in high Himalayan rivers has been overlooked, hindering the development of morphodynamic models that explicitly couple river hydraulics, sediment transport, and channel morphology to predict responses to extreme floods under global warming. This knowledge gap increases risks to regional hydropower, ecosystems, and food security.
{"title":"Overlooked bedload transport in Himalayan rivers threatens regional security","authors":"Zheng Chen, Dieter Rickenmann, Alexandre Badoux, Siming He, Xixi Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01927-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-026-01927-0","url":null,"abstract":"Bedload transport in high Himalayan rivers has been overlooked, hindering the development of morphodynamic models that explicitly couple river hydraulics, sediment transport, and channel morphology to predict responses to extreme floods under global warming. This knowledge gap increases risks to regional hydropower, ecosystems, and food security.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 3","pages":"232-235"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147429382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-27DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01946-x
Joseph B. Novak, Alexander A. Prokopenko, Pavel E. Tarasov, James M. Russell, Emma R. Lindemuth, Koji Shichi, Kenji Kashiwaya, John Peck, Richard S. Vachula, George E. A. Swann, Pratigya J. Polissar
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Early Pleistocene ecosystem turnover in South Siberia linked to abrupt regional cooling","authors":"Joseph B. Novak, Alexander A. Prokopenko, Pavel E. Tarasov, James M. Russell, Emma R. Lindemuth, Koji Shichi, Kenji Kashiwaya, John Peck, Richard S. Vachula, George E. A. Swann, Pratigya J. Polissar","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01946-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-026-01946-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 3","pages":"359-359"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01946-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147429391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The giant impact hypothesis, generally considered as the origin of the Moon, predicts a dry Moon lacking volatile elements, but in situ observations provide evidence that volatile elements such as carbon, nitrogen and oxygen are stored on the lunar surface and are being supplied to its exosphere. Such volatile sources and dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the chemical composition and time variations in the lunar exosphere using an ion mass analyser onboard the Kaguya satellite. We reported sporadic changes in the C+/O+ ratio occurring immediately after meteoroid showers. We also observed daily variations in the C+/O+ and N+/O+ ion ratios, suggesting two possible sources: a nitrogen-rich reservoir with a higher N/C ratio than the solar value or N-free CO/CO2 gases. Our findings indicate that the mechanism for the production of C+, N+ and O+ ions during the daytime is solar wind sputtering—ejection through collision with solar wind particles—of the nitrogen-rich reservoir, whereas micrometeoroid impacts and photoionization are not dominant processes. We propose that the nitrogen-rich regolith reported in Apollo samples and indigenous volcanic gases constitute the source of volatile ions in a thin lunar atmosphere.
{"title":"Daily variations of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen ions in a thin lunar atmosphere","authors":"Kentaro Terada, Ryusei Nishihira, Shoichiro Yokota, Yoshifumi Saito, Kazushi Asamura, Masaki N. Nishino, Shota Notsu","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01933-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01933-2","url":null,"abstract":"The giant impact hypothesis, generally considered as the origin of the Moon, predicts a dry Moon lacking volatile elements, but in situ observations provide evidence that volatile elements such as carbon, nitrogen and oxygen are stored on the lunar surface and are being supplied to its exosphere. Such volatile sources and dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the chemical composition and time variations in the lunar exosphere using an ion mass analyser onboard the Kaguya satellite. We reported sporadic changes in the C+/O+ ratio occurring immediately after meteoroid showers. We also observed daily variations in the C+/O+ and N+/O+ ion ratios, suggesting two possible sources: a nitrogen-rich reservoir with a higher N/C ratio than the solar value or N-free CO/CO2 gases. Our findings indicate that the mechanism for the production of C+, N+ and O+ ions during the daytime is solar wind sputtering—ejection through collision with solar wind particles—of the nitrogen-rich reservoir, whereas micrometeoroid impacts and photoionization are not dominant processes. We propose that the nitrogen-rich regolith reported in Apollo samples and indigenous volcanic gases constitute the source of volatile ions in a thin lunar atmosphere.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147320044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01930-5
Maya Almaraz, Melisa A. Diaz, Anne U. Gold
Harmful interactions are prevalent in geoscience fieldwork but often go unreported, hindering efforts to build welcoming and collaborative field cultures.
有害的相互作用在地球科学实地工作中很普遍，但往往没有被报道，阻碍了建立欢迎和合作的实地文化的努力。
{"title":"Pervasive underreporting of harmful field interactions hampers intervention efforts","authors":"Maya Almaraz, Melisa A. Diaz, Anne U. Gold","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01930-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-026-01930-5","url":null,"abstract":"Harmful interactions are prevalent in geoscience fieldwork but often go unreported, hindering efforts to build welcoming and collaborative field cultures.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 3","pages":"236-238"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-23DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01919-0
Binhui Chen, Xiuming Zhang, Baojing Gu
Nitrogen, serving as both a vital nutrient and a potent pollutant, has an important role in the pursuit of global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the comprehensive impact of nitrogen on SDG achievement remains relatively unclear. Here we utilize the Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) model to build a framework for assessing the influence of nitrogen on SDGs in China during 2020. Our analysis reveals that nitrogen use and loss in China affect 11 out of the 17 SDGs, with notable regional disparities. In general, regions with higher economic development perform better in the nitrogen-related SDG (SDG-N) scores within the economy dimension, but score lower in the society and environment dimensions. Our simulations indicate that comprehensive nitrogen management is crucial to foster synergy among SDGs, which could enhance SDG-N index scores in China by 8–26%, resulting in substantial national benefits, including US$162 billion (US$98–208 billion) in savings on fertilizer and food imports, increased agricultural yields, improved public health, enhanced ecosystem resilience and climate mitigation. Importantly, these benefits can be achieved with a modest net implementation cost of only US$34 billion (US$27–41 billion), making it a cost-effective and sustainable solution for advancing China’s SDG agenda. A framework assessing the impact of nitrogen on China’s SDGs reveals effects on 11 out of the 17 SDG goals in 2020, with regional disparities. This highlights the need for revised economic strategies to improve nitrogen management.
{"title":"Nitrogen management to achieve China’s Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Binhui Chen, Xiuming Zhang, Baojing Gu","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01919-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-026-01919-0","url":null,"abstract":"Nitrogen, serving as both a vital nutrient and a potent pollutant, has an important role in the pursuit of global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the comprehensive impact of nitrogen on SDG achievement remains relatively unclear. Here we utilize the Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) model to build a framework for assessing the influence of nitrogen on SDGs in China during 2020. Our analysis reveals that nitrogen use and loss in China affect 11 out of the 17 SDGs, with notable regional disparities. In general, regions with higher economic development perform better in the nitrogen-related SDG (SDG-N) scores within the economy dimension, but score lower in the society and environment dimensions. Our simulations indicate that comprehensive nitrogen management is crucial to foster synergy among SDGs, which could enhance SDG-N index scores in China by 8–26%, resulting in substantial national benefits, including US$162 billion (US$98–208 billion) in savings on fertilizer and food imports, increased agricultural yields, improved public health, enhanced ecosystem resilience and climate mitigation. Importantly, these benefits can be achieved with a modest net implementation cost of only US$34 billion (US$27–41 billion), making it a cost-effective and sustainable solution for advancing China’s SDG agenda. A framework assessing the impact of nitrogen on China’s SDGs reveals effects on 11 out of the 17 SDG goals in 2020, with regional disparities. This highlights the need for revised economic strategies to improve nitrogen management.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"19 3","pages":"270-278"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-23DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3
Travis W. Drake, Jordon D. Hemingway, Matti Barthel, Antoine de Clippele, Negar Haghipour, Jose N. Wabakanghanzi, Kristof Van Oost, Johan Six
Congo Basin lakes Mai Ndombe and Tumba are major CO 2 sources. Here we show that their dissolved inorganic carbon is some 2,170–3,515 14 C years old and partially (39–40%) originates from the surrounding peatlands. This implies a loss pathway for peat carbon, in which microbes respire old carbon within the peat and the resulting CO 2 is transported to the lakes and outgassed, linking these immense ancient stores to the modern carbon cycle.
{"title":"Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin","authors":"Travis W. Drake, Jordon D. Hemingway, Matti Barthel, Antoine de Clippele, Negar Haghipour, Jose N. Wabakanghanzi, Kristof Van Oost, Johan Six","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3","url":null,"abstract":"Congo Basin lakes Mai Ndombe and Tumba are major CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> sources. Here we show that their dissolved inorganic carbon is some 2,170–3,515 <jats:sup>14</jats:sup> C years old and partially (39–40%) originates from the surrounding peatlands. This implies a loss pathway for peat carbon, in which microbes respire old carbon within the peat and the resulting CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> is transported to the lakes and outgassed, linking these immense ancient stores to the modern carbon cycle.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-13DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01922-5
Yunjiang Zhang, Shijie Cui, Jingyi Li, Ming Wang, Xiaofeng Xu, Jiandong Wang, Jie Fang, Hanrui Lang, Bo Zheng, Sheng Zhong, Peng Sun, Haiwei Li, Yun Wu, Jianlin Hu, Junfeng Wang, Mindong Chen, Olivier Favez, Didier Hauglustaine, Philippe Ciais, Kaspar R. Daellenbach, André S. H. Prévôt, Xinlei Ge
Black carbon is a global climate forcer due to its strong radiative absorption, which is highly sensitive to coating formation regulated by anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. However, how cross-regional biogenic sources modulate urban black carbon coating and radiative effects remains poorly understood. Here we integrate observations and model simulations to investigate such biogenic–anthropogenic interactions in eastern China. The results show that biogenic volatile organic compounds from vegetation-rich regions undergo atmospheric oxidation to produce oxygenated organic compounds, which are subsequently advected into downwind urban areas. These products enhance regional atmospheric oxidation capacity and supply additional precursors, thereby promoting secondary organic aerosol production. This biogenic-induced strengthening of regional photochemistry drives the formation of highly oxidized secondary organic aerosol coatings on black carbon and increases its fraction within the total particle population. Consequently, black carbon absorption efficiency increases more steeply with the coating carbon oxidation state under biogenic-rich conditions, yielding an average ~20% enhancement in radiative absorption from the lensing effect relative to biogenic-poor periods. Our findings reveal that cross-regional biogenic–anthropogenic interactions enhance both the formation and particle population fraction of secondary organic aerosol coatings on urban black carbon, potentially further amplifying its radiative effects as biogenic emissions increase under future warming scenarios.
{"title":"Urban black-carbon radiative heating intensified by biogenic–anthropogenic interactions","authors":"Yunjiang Zhang, Shijie Cui, Jingyi Li, Ming Wang, Xiaofeng Xu, Jiandong Wang, Jie Fang, Hanrui Lang, Bo Zheng, Sheng Zhong, Peng Sun, Haiwei Li, Yun Wu, Jianlin Hu, Junfeng Wang, Mindong Chen, Olivier Favez, Didier Hauglustaine, Philippe Ciais, Kaspar R. Daellenbach, André S. H. Prévôt, Xinlei Ge","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01922-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01922-5","url":null,"abstract":"Black carbon is a global climate forcer due to its strong radiative absorption, which is highly sensitive to coating formation regulated by anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. However, how cross-regional biogenic sources modulate urban black carbon coating and radiative effects remains poorly understood. Here we integrate observations and model simulations to investigate such biogenic–anthropogenic interactions in eastern China. The results show that biogenic volatile organic compounds from vegetation-rich regions undergo atmospheric oxidation to produce oxygenated organic compounds, which are subsequently advected into downwind urban areas. These products enhance regional atmospheric oxidation capacity and supply additional precursors, thereby promoting secondary organic aerosol production. This biogenic-induced strengthening of regional photochemistry drives the formation of highly oxidized secondary organic aerosol coatings on black carbon and increases its fraction within the total particle population. Consequently, black carbon absorption efficiency increases more steeply with the coating carbon oxidation state under biogenic-rich conditions, yielding an average ~20% enhancement in radiative absorption from the lensing effect relative to biogenic-poor periods. Our findings reveal that cross-regional biogenic–anthropogenic interactions enhance both the formation and particle population fraction of secondary organic aerosol coatings on urban black carbon, potentially further amplifying its radiative effects as biogenic emissions increase under future warming scenarios.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146196784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01921-6
Ko Tsuchida, Yu Kosaka, Shoshiro Minobe
Earth’s energy uptake—defined as the global mean net incoming radiation at the top of the atmosphere—surged in 2022–2023, contributing to record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes in 2023–2024. Yet, the causes of this extreme energy uptake remain unclear, reflecting limited knowledge of how internal climate variability shapes Earth’s energy imbalance. Here we investigate the drivers of the observed extreme energy uptake by using multi-model climate simulations and satellite-based observations. We show that the transition from the multi-year La Niña to El Niño was key to Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023, upon the externally forced positive imbalance. Our sampling analyses from the multi-model simulation dataset highlight the dominant influence of the La Niña-to-El Niño sequence on enhanced energy uptake, with crucial importance of multi-year persistence in preceding La Niña. When combined with estimates of the externally forced component derived under Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios, the contribution associated with the La Niña-to-El Niño transition explains about 75% of the observed extreme energy uptake. Our finding underscores the role of internal climate variability in shaping Earth’s energy budget and its potential amplification under a warming climate.
{"title":"Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023","authors":"Ko Tsuchida, Yu Kosaka, Shoshiro Minobe","doi":"10.1038/s41561-026-01921-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01921-6","url":null,"abstract":"Earth’s energy uptake—defined as the global mean net incoming radiation at the top of the atmosphere—surged in 2022–2023, contributing to record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes in 2023–2024. Yet, the causes of this extreme energy uptake remain unclear, reflecting limited knowledge of how internal climate variability shapes Earth’s energy imbalance. Here we investigate the drivers of the observed extreme energy uptake by using multi-model climate simulations and satellite-based observations. We show that the transition from the multi-year La Niña to El Niño was key to Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023, upon the externally forced positive imbalance. Our sampling analyses from the multi-model simulation dataset highlight the dominant influence of the La Niña-to-El Niño sequence on enhanced energy uptake, with crucial importance of multi-year persistence in preceding La Niña. When combined with estimates of the externally forced component derived under Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios, the contribution associated with the La Niña-to-El Niño transition explains about 75% of the observed extreme energy uptake. Our finding underscores the role of internal climate variability in shaping Earth’s energy budget and its potential amplification under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146196785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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