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The ‘Pact for the Future’ 未来契约
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01438-z
A new start for multilateralism is what UN Member States are focusing on, but achieving it won’t be easy and won’t be enough to deliver sustainable development. Addressing the multifaceted root causes of discrimination, inequalities and injustice across scales should be the priority.
多边主义的新起点是联合国会员国关注的焦点,但实现这一目标并非易事,也不足以实现可持续发展。当务之急是解决造成各种规模的歧视、不平等和不公正的多方面根源。
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引用次数: 0
Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options 欧洲绿色交易的全球溢出效应和可行的缓解方案
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01428-1
Honglin Zhong, Yanxian Li, Jiaying Ding, Benedikt Bruckner, Kuishuang Feng, Laixiang Sun, Christina Prell, Yuli Shan, Klaus Hubacek
Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional input–output analysis with an agro-ecological zones model. We find that EGD’s agricultural and forestry targets set for 2030 could result in a 23.9 Mha increase in demand for agricultural land outside the European Union, which in turn would lead to an increase in land-use-related carbon emissions by 758.9 MtCO2-equivalent (244.8% of EGD’s carbon removal target in the land, land-use-change and forestry sectors) and a biodiversity loss of 3.86 million mean species abundance loss. Such spillover impacts far exceed the ecological benefits from EGD conservation-based import policies, such as promoting deforestation-free products and phasing out food-based biofuel. We then propose three options beyond the primary targets of the EGD with the aim to mitigate such spillover impacts. The assessment of these options reveals the critical role of reducing meat and dairy consumption, highlighting the impact of consumer behaviour on environmental outcomes. This raises questions about public awareness, willingness to change diets and the role of policy in influencing consumer behaviours. Achieving European Green Deal targets may benefit the European Union ecologically but increase global environmental impacts. This study quantifies such external impacts and suggests ways to minimize them
实现 "欧洲绿色交易"(EGD)的碳清除和生态恢复目标将减少欧盟内部的农业和林业生产,但同时也会对其他地区的生态系统产生影响。在此,我们将扩展的多区域投入产出分析与农业生态区模型相结合,对这种溢出影响进行量化。我们发现,EGD 为 2030 年设定的农业和林业目标可能会导致欧盟以外的农业用地需求增加 2,390 万公顷,进而导致与土地利用相关的碳排放量增加 758.9 兆吨 CO2 当量(EGD 在土地、土地利用变化和林业部门碳清除目标的 244.8%),生物多样性平均物种丰度损失达 386 万种。这种溢出影响远远超过了 EGD 基于保护的进口政策(如推广不砍伐森林的产品和逐步淘汰以粮食为基础的生物燃料)所带来的生态效益。随后,我们提出了三个超出 EGD 主要目标的方案,旨在减轻此类溢出影响。对这些方案的评估揭示了减少肉类和奶制品消费的关键作用,强调了消费者行为对环境结果的影响。这就提出了有关公众意识、改变饮食习惯的意愿以及政策在影响消费者行为方面的作用等问题。实现欧洲绿色交易目标可能会使欧盟在生态方面受益,但会增加对全球环境的影响。本研究对这些外部影响进行了量化,并提出了将其最小化的方法
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引用次数: 0
Adapting wild biodiversity conservation approaches to conserve agrobiodiversity 调整野生生物多样性保护方法,保护农业生物多样性
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01427-2
S. Jago, K. F. V. A. Elliott, C. Tovar, M. Soto Gomez, T. Starnes, W. Abebe, C. Alexander, A. Antonelli, L. Baldaszti, G. Cerullo, C. Cockel, D. Collison, C. Cowell, R. Delgado, S. Demissew, A. Devenish, K. Dhanjal-Adams, M. Diazgranados, A. G. Drucker, M. E. Dulloo, B. M. Erland, S. Fadika, W. Huang, K. Inwood, S. K. Jones, B. B. Klitgaard, A. Lebbie, F. K. S. Lim, E. Lulekal, C. Morales-Rozo, F. Niang, E. Nic Lughadha, R. P. Oliveira, A. Ortega-Argueta, S. Pironon, J. F. Plummer, M. Ramirez, P. Ryan, F. J. Simbiano, R. J. Smith, P. C. Stevenson, A. C. Treydte, J. E. Victor, O. Weber, C. Williams, C. T. Yohanna, O. M. Grace, I. Darbyshire, J. S. Borrell
The global biodiversity crisis in agriculture is overlooked compared with that in wild systems. This must change if we are to safeguard domesticated plant diversity and meet global sustainable development and biodiversity goals. In this Perspective, we review tools developed through decades of wild biodiversity conservation and provide a framework for adapting and applying these for agrobiodiversity conservation. We focus on challenges and solutions around monitoring the status of agrobiodiversity, prioritizing its conservation, conserving it in situ and financing to ensure these actions can be maintained long term. Conserving global agrobiodiversity supports wider conservation efforts and is crucial for achieving food security, climate resilience and a sustainable future. The global biodiversity crisis impacting agriculture is overlooked compared with wild systems. This Perspective presents an overview of the the tools developed for wild biodiversity conservation and provides a framework to adapt these for agrobiodiversity conservation to better address sustainability goals.
与野生系统相比,全球农业生物多样性危机被忽视了。如果我们要保护驯化植物多样性,实现全球可持续发展和生物多样性目标,就必须改变这种状况。在本《视角》中,我们回顾了几十年来在野生生物多样性保护方面开发的工具,并提供了一个将这些工具调整和应用于农业生物多样性保护的框架。我们将重点关注在监测农业生物多样性状况、确定其保护优先次序、就地保护和融资方面的挑战和解决方案,以确保这些行动能够长期保持下去。保护全球农业生物多样性有助于开展更广泛的保护工作,对于实现粮食安全、气候适应能力和可持续未来至关重要。与野生系统相比,人们忽视了影响农业的全球生物多样性危机。本视角概述了为保护野生生物多样性而开发的工具,并提供了将这些工具用于农业生物多样性保护的框架,以更好地实现可持续发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
Substantial impacts of climate shocks in African smallholder agriculture 气候冲击对非洲小农农业的巨大影响
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01411-w
Philip Wollburg, Yannick Markhof, Thomas Bentze, Giulia Ponzini
Climate change is affecting the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as droughts or floods, which result in loss and damage to people, crops and infrastructure. Global data on loss and damage used in research, policy and media primarily come from macrostatistics based on disaster inventories. Here, we propose a different approach, based on survey microdata. We harmonize data from 120,000 agricultural fields in six African countries for a period from 2008 to 2019 and quantify crop production losses related to climate shocks. We find substantial damages which affect around 35% of plots and reduce national crop production by 29% on average. The economic impacts are greater than the global disaster data suggest. The economic losses resulting from droughts and flood alone are US$5.1 billion higher than reported in disaster inventories, affecting between 145 and 170 million people. The difference stems mostly from smaller and less severe but frequent adverse events that go under-reported or undetected in disaster inventories and therefore elude macrostatistics and reporting. The findings have implications for measurement and policies related to loss and damage and disaster risk reduction. Estimating losses and damages caused by climate change is central to developing equitable climate policy. Microdata surveys have the potential to expose losses and damages among smallholder farmers that may otherwise be overlooked.
气候变化正在影响着干旱或洪水等极端天气事件的发生频率和严重程度,这些事件给人类、农作物和基础设施造成了损失和破坏。研究、政策和媒体所使用的全球损失和损害数据主要来自基于灾害清单的宏观统计。在此,我们提出了一种基于微观数据调查的不同方法。我们统一了 2008 年至 2019 年期间六个非洲国家 120,000 块农田的数据,并量化了与气候冲击相关的作物生产损失。我们发现,大约 35% 的农田受到了严重破坏,全国作物产量平均减少 29%。经济影响比全球灾害数据显示的要大。仅干旱和洪水造成的经济损失就比灾害清单报告的高出 51 亿美元,影响人口在 1.45 亿到 1.7 亿之间。这种差异主要源于规模较小、严重程度较低但频繁发生的不利事件,这些事件在灾害清单中报告不足或未被发现,因此无法进行宏观统计和报告。这些发现对有关损失和损害以及减少灾害风险的测量和政策具有影响。估算气候变化造成的损失和损害对于制定公平的气候政策至关重要。微观数据调查有可能揭示小农的损失和损害,否则这些损失和损害可能会被忽视。
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引用次数: 0
Democratic discrepancies in urban sustainable development 城市可持续发展中的民主差异
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01425-4
David Kaufmann, Michael Wicki, Stefan Wittwer, Jake Stephan
Cities are critical for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Their urban sustainable development (USD) plans and policies cover a wide range of issues, such as biodiversity protection, transportation or poverty reduction. Yet, such policy-making may lack democratic legitimacy if these policies are out of step with the demands and concerns of residents. Considering this, the present study compares residents’ preferences about USD policy issues with the priorities set out in existing USD policy plans. We scrutinized the preferences of 5,800 residents across eight European cities through the application of survey experiments and simultaneously examined 166 existing USD policy plans from these cities and compared them with the survey results. Our findings indicate an on average high acceptance of USD (72.61%) but with substantial democratic discrepancies: while USD policy plans predominantly prioritize issues, such as biodiversity, education and transportation, residents expressed preferences for issues linked to their essential and everyday needs, such as cost of living, public health and poverty. These democratic discrepancies between residents’ priorities and the content of USD policy plans highlight the necessity of securing basic human needs as integral aspects of USD to foster a more profound and democratically supported urban socio-ecological sustainability transformation. This study finds that residents in European cities prioritize urban sustainable development policies that address basic human needs such as the cost of living and poverty alleviation, while existing policies focus more on issues such as biodiversity and public transport. These discrepancies suggest that sustainability policies may lack democratic legitimacy.
城市对于实现联合国可持续发展目标至关重要。它们的城市可持续发展(USD)计划和政策涉及生物多样性保护、交通或减贫等广泛问题。然而,如果这些政策与居民的需求和关切脱节,那么这些政策的制定就可能缺乏民主合法性。考虑到这一点,本研究将居民对市政总署政策问题的偏好与现有市政总署政策计划中规定的优先事项进行了比较。我们通过调查实验,仔细研究了欧洲八个城市 5800 名居民的偏好,同时研究了这些城市现有的 166 项美元政策计划,并将其与调查结果进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明,居民对 "城市发展计划 "的平均接受度较高(72.61%),但同时也存在着巨大的民主差异:"城市发展计划 "政策规划主要优先考虑生物多样性、教育和交通等问题,而居民则更倾向于生活成本、公共卫生和贫困等与其基本生活需求相关的问题。居民优先考虑的问题与城市发展政策计划内容之间的这些民主差异突出表明,必须确保人类基本需求成为城市发展不可或缺的方面,以促进更深入、更民主的城市社会生态可持续性转型。本研究发现,欧洲城市居民优先考虑解决人类基本需求(如生活成本和扶贫)的城市可持续发展政策,而现有政策则更关注生物多样性和公共交通等问题。这些差异表明,可持续发展政策可能缺乏民主合法性。
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引用次数: 0
Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor 天气多变性对富人和穷人的全球经济影响
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01430-7
Lennart Quante, Sven N. Willner, Christian Otto, Anders Levermann
Temperature and precipitation variability and extremes impact production globally. These production disruptions will change with future warming, impacting consumers locally as well as remotely through supply chains. Due to a potentially nonlinear economic response, trade impacts are difficult to quantify; empirical assessments rather focus on the direct inequality impacts of weather extremes. Here, simulating global economic interactions of profit-maximizing firms and utility-optimizing consumers, we assess risks to consumption resulting from weather-induced production disruptions along supply chains. Across countries, risks are highest for middle-income countries due to unfavourable trade dependence and seasonal climate exposure. We also find that risks increase in most countries under future climate change. Global warming increases consumer risks locally and through supply chains. However, high-income consumers face the greatest risk increase. Overall, risks are heterogeneous regarding income within and between countries, such that targeted local and global resilience building may reduce them. It is hard to study weather-induced impacts on consumption as supply-chain effects cause a nonlinear economic response. Here consumption risks due to weather-induced production disruptions along supply chains are assessed considering income inequality within and across countries.
温度和降水的多变性和极端性影响着全球的生产。这些生产中断将随着未来气候变暖而改变,通过供应链影响当地和远程的消费者。由于潜在的非线性经济反应,贸易影响难以量化;经验评估更侧重于极端天气对不平等的直接影响。在此,我们通过模拟利润最大化的企业和效用最优化的消费者之间的全球经济互动,评估了由天气引起的供应链生产中断对消费造成的风险。从各国情况来看,由于不利的贸易依赖性和季节性气候影响,中等收入国家的风险最高。我们还发现,在未来气候变化的情况下,大多数国家的风险都会增加。全球变暖增加了消费者在当地和供应链中的风险。然而,高收入消费者面临的风险增幅最大。总体而言,国家内部和国家之间的收入风险各不相同,因此有针对性的地方和全球抗灾能力建设可降低风险。由于供应链效应会导致非线性经济反应,因此很难研究天气对消费的影响。在此,考虑到国家内部和国家之间的收入不平等,对供应链上由天气引起的生产中断所导致的消费风险进行了评估。
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引用次数: 0
Technology-minded climate delegates support less stringent climate policies 技术型气候代表支持较宽松的气候政策
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01434-3
Maximilian Nicolaus Burger, Donia Mahabadi, Björn Vollan
To transform global policies and actions on climate change, Meadows’ leverage framework highlights the need to identify deep leverage points such as mindset and paradigm shifts. Our analysis focuses on the mindset of climate delegates regarding the paradigm that technological innovation can achieve the 1.5 °C target without systemic changes. Surveying delegates from the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reveals that respondents believing in technological solutions indeed support less stringent climate policies. Within high-level conferences devoted to climate or sustainability action, differences in views can lead to differences in policy. This study surveyed how delegates at COP24 perceived the efficacy of technology and climate targets.
为了改变全球气候变化政策和行动,Meadows 的杠杆框架强调需要确定深层次的杠杆点,如思维模式和范式转变。我们的分析侧重于气候问题代表的思维模式,即技术创新可以在不进行系统变革的情况下实现 1.5 °C 的目标。对《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)第 24 届缔约方大会(COP24)代表的调查显示,相信技术解决方案的受访者确实支持较宽松的气候政策。在专门讨论气候或可持续发展行动的高级别会议上,观点的不同会导致政策的不同。本研究调查了参加 COP24 的代表如何看待技术和气候目标的功效。
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引用次数: 0
Pathways to advanced resource recovery from sewage 从污水中回收先进资源的途径
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01423-6
Min Zheng, Zhetai Hu, Tao Liu, Mathieu Sperandio, Eveline I. P. Volcke, Zhiyao Wang, Xiaodi Hao, Haoran Duan, Siegfried E. Vlaeminck, Kangning Xu, Zhiqiang Zuo, Jianhua Guo, Xia Huang, Glen T. Daigger, Willy Verstraete, Mark C. M. van Loosdrecht, Zhiguo Yuan
The ongoing paradigm shift in sewage management from pollution control to resource recovery is an integral part of a circular economy. Efforts have traditionally concentrated on the recovery of organic carbon as bioenergy, and nitrogen and phosphorus as nutrients. In the past decade, technologies have been developed to recover high-value commodities. Simultaneously, innovative processes have been proposed to produce chemical agents that can be immediately reused in the sewage system to facilitate sewage management. This Review evaluates these latest developments and the underpinning scientific discoveries, identifies the key challenges, and outlines a roadmap towards greener and more sustainable sewage management. The paradigm shift in sewage management from pollution control to resource recovery is highly desired from a circular economy perspective. This Review presents the latest developments and the key challenges in this field and outlines a roadmap towards greener and more sustainable sewage management.
污水管理模式正在从污染控制向资源回收转变,这是循环经济不可分割的一部分。传统上,工作重点是回收作为生物能源的有机碳和作为营养物质的氮和磷。在过去十年中,已经开发出回收高价值商品的技术。与此同时,还提出了创新工艺,以生产可在污水系统中立即重复使用的化学制剂,从而促进污水管理。本综述评估了这些最新发展和基础科学发现,确定了主要挑战,并概述了实现更环保、更可持续的污水管理的路线图。从循环经济的角度来看,从污染控制到资源回收的污水管理模式转变是非常必要的。本综述介绍了这一领域的最新发展和主要挑战,并概述了实现更环保、更可持续的污水管理的路线图。
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引用次数: 0
Ingestible hydrogel microparticles improve bee health after pesticide exposure 可摄入的水凝胶微粒能改善接触杀虫剂后蜜蜂的健康状况
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01432-5
Julia S. Caserto, Lyndsey Wright, Corey Reese, Matthew Huang, Mary K. Salcedo, Stephanie Fuchs, Sunghwan Jung, Scott H. McArt, Minglin Ma
Bees provide crucial pollination services for crop cultivation, contributing billions of dollars to the global agricultural economy. However, exposure to pesticides such as neonicotinoids represents a major problem for bee health, necessitating strategies that can improve agricultural sustainability and pollinator health. Here we report a simple and scalable solution, through ingestible hydrogel microparticles (IHMs), which can capture neonicotinoids in vitro and in the bee gastrointestinal tract to mitigate the harmful effects of pesticides. Using the common eastern bumblebee (Bombus impatiens) as a model species and the neonicotinoid imidacloprid, we demonstrated by means of lethal and sublethal assays the substantial benefits of IHM treatments. Under lethal exposure of imidacloprid, bumblebees that received IHM treatment exhibited a 30% increase in survival relative to groups without IHM treatment. After a sublethal exposure of 5 ng, IHM treatment resulted in improved feeding motivation and a 44% increase in the number of bees that engaged in locomotor activity. Wingbeat frequency was significantly lower after a single 5 or 10 ng imidacloprid dose; however, IHM treatment improved wingbeat frequency. Overall, the IHMs improved bumblebee health, and with further optimization have the potential to benefit apiculture and reduce risk during crop pollination by managed bees. Bees are important components of sustainable agriculture through their pollination services, however, they are susceptible to pesticide toxicity. This study presents an ingestible hydrogel microparticle technology that can lessen the detrimental effects of toxicity from the imidacloprid pesticide.
蜜蜂为作物栽培提供了重要的授粉服务,为全球农业经济贡献了数十亿美元。然而,暴露于新烟碱类杀虫剂是蜜蜂健康的一个主要问题,因此需要制定能够改善农业可持续性和授粉者健康的策略。在此,我们报告了一种简单且可扩展的解决方案,即通过可摄取的水凝胶微颗粒(IHMs),在体外和蜜蜂胃肠道中捕获新烟碱类杀虫剂,以减轻杀虫剂的有害影响。我们以常见的东方熊蜂(Bombus impatiens)和新烟碱吡虫啉为模式物种,通过致死和亚致死试验证明了 IHM 处理的巨大益处。在吡虫啉的致死暴露下,接受 IHM 处理的大黄蜂的存活率比未接受 IHM 处理的大黄蜂提高了 30%。在 5 毫微克的亚致死暴露后,IHM 处理可提高蜜蜂的摄食积极性,并使参与运动活动的蜜蜂数量增加 44%。单次服用 5 或 10 毫微克吡虫啉后,蜜蜂的振翅频率明显降低;然而,IHM 处理可提高振翅频率。总体而言,IHMs 改善了熊蜂的健康状况,在进一步优化后,有可能有利于养蜂业,并降低管理蜜蜂在作物授粉过程中的风险。蜜蜂的授粉服务是可持续农业的重要组成部分,但它们很容易受到杀虫剂毒性的影响。本研究介绍了一种可摄取的水凝胶微粒技术,该技术可减轻吡虫啉杀虫剂毒性的有害影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of fishery bycatch-mitigation measures on vulnerable marine fauna and target catch 渔业兼捕渔获物缓解措施对脆弱海洋动物和目标渔获物的影响
IF 25.7 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01422-7
Cheng Huang, Jake Rice, Andries Richter, Kaiwen Zhou, Yi Wang, Chentao Wei, Emilio Pagani-Núñez, Philipp N. Maleko, Xiong Zhang, Tien Ming Lee, Yang Liu
Reducing fisheries bycatches of vulnerable species is critical to marine biodiversity conservation and sustainable fisheries development. Although various preventive technical measures have been implemented, their overall effects are poorly understood. Here, we used a meta-analysis approach to quantify the effects of 42 technical measures on the target catch and the bycatch of seabirds, elasmobranchs, marine mammals and sea turtles. We showed that these measures generally reduced the bycatch while having no statistically significant effect on the target catch. Sensory-based measures generally outperformed physical-based ones in reducing the bycatch. Mitigation measures that worked well for several fishing gears or taxa, although useful, were very rare. Most of the adoptions by regional fisheries management organizations (59%) were supported by our findings, although many others are yet to be robustly evaluated. Our study encourages the innovation and adoption of technical measures and provides crucial insights for policy-making and further research in sustainable bycatch management. Various preventive measures are used to avoid non-target species or bycatch in fishing operations, but the success of such measures is not well understood. This study evaluates the effects of technical mitigation measures on both vulnerable marine fauna bycatch and target catch.
减少渔业兼捕脆弱物种对海洋生物多样性保护和渔业可持续发展至关重要。尽管已经实施了各种预防性技术措施,但人们对其总体效果知之甚少。在此,我们采用荟萃分析方法,量化了 42 项技术措施对目标渔获量和海鸟、伶鲽类、海洋哺乳动物和海龟误捕的影响。我们发现,这些措施普遍减少了副渔获物,但对目标渔获量没有显著的统计影响。在减少混获方面,感官措施通常优于物理措施。对多个渔具或分类群有效的减缓措施尽管有用,但非常罕见。区域渔业管理组织采用的大多数措施(59%)都得到了我们研究结果的支持,但许多其他措施还有待有力评估。我们的研究鼓励技术措施的创新和采用,并为可持续混获管理的政策制定和进一步研究提供了重要见解。为避免捕捞作业中的非目标鱼种或混获,人们采取了各种预防措施,但对这些措施的成功与否还不甚了解。本研究评估了技术缓解措施对脆弱海洋动物副渔获物和目标渔获物的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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