Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01675-w
Candelaria Bergero, Nicoletta Brazzola
Aviation is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize, and so every clean energy source that can be turned into fuel should be considered — even trash. A study now finds that trash-based fuels may be able to cut aviation emissions by around 16%, while offering cost savings relative to traditional mitigation pathways.
{"title":"From trash to jet fuel","authors":"Candelaria Bergero, Nicoletta Brazzola","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01675-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01675-w","url":null,"abstract":"Aviation is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize, and so every clean energy source that can be turned into fuel should be considered — even trash. A study now finds that trash-based fuels may be able to cut aviation emissions by around 16%, while offering cost savings relative to traditional mitigation pathways.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1437-1438"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01661-2
Yao Wang, Fengmei Ma, Heming Wang, Asaf Tzachor, Meng Jiang, Kai Fang, Sai Liang, Bing Zhu, Edgar G. Hertwich, Manfred Lenzen, Heinz Schandl, Stephan Lutter
Producing essential, widely used materials such as steel, cement, paper, plastics and rubber requires substantial freshwater resources, which may exacerbate water scarcity. Despite this, comprehensive research on freshwater embodied in material production remains limited. Here we assess the blue water footprint (WFblue) of 16 metallic and non-metallic material categories across 164 regions, using a multiregional input–output model and the hypothetical extraction method. Our findings indicate that the global WFblue of material production doubled from 25.1 billion m3 in 1995 to 50.7 billion m3 in 2021, raising its share in global blue water consumption from 2.8% to 4.7%. The East, South Asia and Oceania regions saw an alarming 267% surge in WFblue for material production, with China—already facing medium-high water stress—experiencing a dramatic ~400% increase. As material production is expected to grow, we underscore the urgency of a water–materials nexus approach, particularly in water-stressed countries. Many of the materials that our everyday lives rely on come with a hidden freshwater cost during production. The embodied water in materials has surged in material production with the potential to exacerbate regional water scarcity.
{"title":"Doubling of the global freshwater footprint of material production over two decades","authors":"Yao Wang, Fengmei Ma, Heming Wang, Asaf Tzachor, Meng Jiang, Kai Fang, Sai Liang, Bing Zhu, Edgar G. Hertwich, Manfred Lenzen, Heinz Schandl, Stephan Lutter","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01661-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01661-2","url":null,"abstract":"Producing essential, widely used materials such as steel, cement, paper, plastics and rubber requires substantial freshwater resources, which may exacerbate water scarcity. Despite this, comprehensive research on freshwater embodied in material production remains limited. Here we assess the blue water footprint (WFblue) of 16 metallic and non-metallic material categories across 164 regions, using a multiregional input–output model and the hypothetical extraction method. Our findings indicate that the global WFblue of material production doubled from 25.1 billion m3 in 1995 to 50.7 billion m3 in 2021, raising its share in global blue water consumption from 2.8% to 4.7%. The East, South Asia and Oceania regions saw an alarming 267% surge in WFblue for material production, with China—already facing medium-high water stress—experiencing a dramatic ~400% increase. As material production is expected to grow, we underscore the urgency of a water–materials nexus approach, particularly in water-stressed countries. Many of the materials that our everyday lives rely on come with a hidden freshwater cost during production. The embodied water in materials has surged in material production with the potential to exacerbate regional water scarcity.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1554-1566"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01667-w
Ekbal Hussain, Luke Bateson, Alessandro Novellino
Ground subsidence is an increasingly important hazard in cities around the world. Satellite measurements of ground movements show dramatic levels of sinking in five Indian cities and are used to map the risk of damage to buildings in these cities.
{"title":"Sinking Indian megacities","authors":"Ekbal Hussain, Luke Bateson, Alessandro Novellino","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01667-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01667-w","url":null,"abstract":"Ground subsidence is an increasingly important hazard in cities around the world. Satellite measurements of ground movements show dramatic levels of sinking in five Indian cities and are used to map the risk of damage to buildings in these cities.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1435-1436"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01663-0
Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam, Leonard Ohenhen, Mohammad Khorrami, Susanna Werth, Manoochehr Shirzaei
Building damage poses serious safety risks, causing substantial financial losses worldwide. Engineering shortcomings are commonly cited as the cause of long-term structural failures, often neglecting the exacerbating role of land subsidence. Here we used satellite radar observations during 2015–2023 to estimate differential settlements at 5 fast-growing Indian megacities, including more than 13 million buildings and 80 million people. Our analysis reveals 878 km² of land subsiding, exposing ~1.9 million people to subsidence rates of more than 4 mm yr−1. An estimated 2,406 buildings across Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are at high risk of structural damage from ongoing land subsidence. Sustained over 50 years, current subsidence rates could place as many as 23,529 buildings at very high risk of structural damage in Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bengaluru. Our results highlight the compounding risk of infrastructure damage from subsidence, assisting policymakers to develop resilience plans and adaptation strategies that prioritize mitigation and maintenance spending. Building damage and collapse is an emerging problem, particularly in large cities in developing countries. Although engineering shortcomings are often blamed, land subsidence is an underappreciated culprit that could put tens of thousands of buildings at risk across Indian megacities.
{"title":"Building damage risk in sinking Indian megacities","authors":"Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam, Leonard Ohenhen, Mohammad Khorrami, Susanna Werth, Manoochehr Shirzaei","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01663-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01663-0","url":null,"abstract":"Building damage poses serious safety risks, causing substantial financial losses worldwide. Engineering shortcomings are commonly cited as the cause of long-term structural failures, often neglecting the exacerbating role of land subsidence. Here we used satellite radar observations during 2015–2023 to estimate differential settlements at 5 fast-growing Indian megacities, including more than 13 million buildings and 80 million people. Our analysis reveals 878 km² of land subsiding, exposing ~1.9 million people to subsidence rates of more than 4 mm yr−1. An estimated 2,406 buildings across Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are at high risk of structural damage from ongoing land subsidence. Sustained over 50 years, current subsidence rates could place as many as 23,529 buildings at very high risk of structural damage in Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bengaluru. Our results highlight the compounding risk of infrastructure damage from subsidence, assisting policymakers to develop resilience plans and adaptation strategies that prioritize mitigation and maintenance spending. Building damage and collapse is an emerging problem, particularly in large cities in developing countries. Although engineering shortcomings are often blamed, land subsidence is an underappreciated culprit that could put tens of thousands of buildings at risk across Indian megacities.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1467-1479"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01663-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The transition to a circular plastics economy is critical for mitigating plastic pollution and advancing global sustainability goals. As one of the most widely used synthetic polymers worldwide, the recycling of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) remains impeded by inefficient dechlorination and toxic chlorinated by-product formation. Here we show that a tailored LaFe0.3Al0.7O3 catalyst significantly enhances peroxymonosulfate activation to achieve stepwise PVC depolymerization. This system achieves complete conversion of PVC into CO2 and liquid organic products. Thus, valuable hydrocarbon compounds are obtained in high yields exceeding 90% among these liquids. Mechanistic studies reveal a cascade process: preferential chlorine removal mediated by singlet oxygen (1O2) followed by hydroxyl radical (⋅OH)-driven polymer backbone oxidation. The synergistic effect of 1O2 and ⋅OH resolves the key challenge of toxic by-products generated during dechlorination. A life-cycle assessment confirms that the process reduces carbon emissions by 45–99% and eco-costs by 51–99% across impact categories compared with conventional PVC waste treatment methods. Our approach enables the conversion of persistent waste plastics into valuable hydrocarbons through a safer and cleaner process with a notably reduced environmental footprints, thus opening opportunities for a more sustainable future. The authors demonstrate a Fenton-like chemistry activated by a perovskite catalyst to depolymerize PVC, one of the most widely used synthetic polymers, to value-added hydrocarbons in a stepwise manner.
{"title":"Catalytic cascade depolymerization for sustainable recycling of waste polyvinyl chloride","authors":"Yueshuang Mao, Pengfei Wang, Ruochen Cao, Ligang Wang, Bingnan Yu, Dongpeng Zhang, Wenfang Gao, Yueping Bao, Ding Ma, Sihui Zhan","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01654-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01654-1","url":null,"abstract":"The transition to a circular plastics economy is critical for mitigating plastic pollution and advancing global sustainability goals. As one of the most widely used synthetic polymers worldwide, the recycling of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) remains impeded by inefficient dechlorination and toxic chlorinated by-product formation. Here we show that a tailored LaFe0.3Al0.7O3 catalyst significantly enhances peroxymonosulfate activation to achieve stepwise PVC depolymerization. This system achieves complete conversion of PVC into CO2 and liquid organic products. Thus, valuable hydrocarbon compounds are obtained in high yields exceeding 90% among these liquids. Mechanistic studies reveal a cascade process: preferential chlorine removal mediated by singlet oxygen (1O2) followed by hydroxyl radical (⋅OH)-driven polymer backbone oxidation. The synergistic effect of 1O2 and ⋅OH resolves the key challenge of toxic by-products generated during dechlorination. A life-cycle assessment confirms that the process reduces carbon emissions by 45–99% and eco-costs by 51–99% across impact categories compared with conventional PVC waste treatment methods. Our approach enables the conversion of persistent waste plastics into valuable hydrocarbons through a safer and cleaner process with a notably reduced environmental footprints, thus opening opportunities for a more sustainable future. The authors demonstrate a Fenton-like chemistry activated by a perovskite catalyst to depolymerize PVC, one of the most widely used synthetic polymers, to value-added hydrocarbons in a stepwise manner.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1513-1523"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-24DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01668-9
Philipp Sepin, Lukas Vashold, Nikolas Kuschnig
Mining provides crucial materials for the global economy and the energy transition but can have severe environmental and social impacts. Available analyses of these impacts are limited by a lack of data on mining activity, particularly in the regions most affected. Here we present a detailed panel dataset mapping mining sites along the tropical belt from 2016 to 2024. Our approach uses a machine learning model, trained on over 25,000 mining polygons from the literature, to automatically segment mining areas with high-resolution (<5 m) satellite imagery. The dataset maps over 147,000 mining polygons that cover an average area of 66,400 km2 annually, with an accuracy of 87.7% and precision of 84.1%. Our approach allows accurate, precise and consistent delineation and can be scaled to other locations and periods. The dataset enables detailed analyses of local environmental, societal and economic impacts of mining in regions where conventional data are scarce or incomplete. Analysing the impacts of mining activities is hindered by scarce or incomplete data. Using a machine learning model, this study maps mining sites along the tropical belt from 2016 to 2024 with high accuracy and precision, and provides an approach that can be scaled to other locations and periods.
{"title":"Mapping mining areas in the tropics from 2016 to 2024","authors":"Philipp Sepin, Lukas Vashold, Nikolas Kuschnig","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01668-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01668-9","url":null,"abstract":"Mining provides crucial materials for the global economy and the energy transition but can have severe environmental and social impacts. Available analyses of these impacts are limited by a lack of data on mining activity, particularly in the regions most affected. Here we present a detailed panel dataset mapping mining sites along the tropical belt from 2016 to 2024. Our approach uses a machine learning model, trained on over 25,000 mining polygons from the literature, to automatically segment mining areas with high-resolution (<5 m) satellite imagery. The dataset maps over 147,000 mining polygons that cover an average area of 66,400 km2 annually, with an accuracy of 87.7% and precision of 84.1%. Our approach allows accurate, precise and consistent delineation and can be scaled to other locations and periods. The dataset enables detailed analyses of local environmental, societal and economic impacts of mining in regions where conventional data are scarce or incomplete. Analysing the impacts of mining activities is hindered by scarce or incomplete data. Using a machine learning model, this study maps mining sites along the tropical belt from 2016 to 2024 with high accuracy and precision, and provides an approach that can be scaled to other locations and periods.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 11","pages":"1400-1407"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145547312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-24DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1
Yan Jiang, Jennifer A. Burney
Water availability critically influences crop phenology and agricultural productivity. Here we use satellite-derived water isotope observations and physical models to trace atmospheric moisture origins for major global rain-fed crops from 2003 to 2019, distinguishing between oceanic and terrestrial sources. Our analysis shows that the fraction of rainwater originating from land (f) varies both geographically and seasonally, with an important threshold at ~36%. Regions with higher f, that is, more dependent on land-originating water, are more prone to insufficient rainwater supply and soil moisture deficits during the main growing season. Crops in these regions show higher sensitivity to hydroclimate—with reduced productivity in lower-rainfall years—and a higher likelihood of drought. Notably, more than 40% of global maize and 60% of winter wheat is grown in regions where rainfall depends heavily on land-originating moisture (f ≥ 36%), underscoring the vulnerability of key staple crops to hydroclimate stress. Our results highlight the importance of managing local land moisture sources and reveal where targeted water management strategies would be most expected to enhance agricultural resilience. The origin of precipitation from oceanic or terrestrial moisture sources influences the stability of agricultural rainwater supply. Nearly half of global maize and wheat-growing regions receive a substantial share of rainfall from terrestrial water sources and are at greater risk of water scarcity.
{"title":"Crop water origins and hydroclimate vulnerability of global croplands","authors":"Yan Jiang, Jennifer A. Burney","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1","url":null,"abstract":"Water availability critically influences crop phenology and agricultural productivity. Here we use satellite-derived water isotope observations and physical models to trace atmospheric moisture origins for major global rain-fed crops from 2003 to 2019, distinguishing between oceanic and terrestrial sources. Our analysis shows that the fraction of rainwater originating from land (f) varies both geographically and seasonally, with an important threshold at ~36%. Regions with higher f, that is, more dependent on land-originating water, are more prone to insufficient rainwater supply and soil moisture deficits during the main growing season. Crops in these regions show higher sensitivity to hydroclimate—with reduced productivity in lower-rainfall years—and a higher likelihood of drought. Notably, more than 40% of global maize and 60% of winter wheat is grown in regions where rainfall depends heavily on land-originating moisture (f ≥ 36%), underscoring the vulnerability of key staple crops to hydroclimate stress. Our results highlight the importance of managing local land moisture sources and reveal where targeted water management strategies would be most expected to enhance agricultural resilience. The origin of precipitation from oceanic or terrestrial moisture sources influences the stability of agricultural rainwater supply. Nearly half of global maize and wheat-growing regions receive a substantial share of rainfall from terrestrial water sources and are at greater risk of water scarcity.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1491-1504"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01674-x
Wild and remote, Antarctica and the Arctic are drawing in record numbers of tourists from around the globe, with environmental effects following in their wake. Proactive policies and careful management are needed to save the Earth’s poles from their growing popularity.
{"title":"Treading on fragile ground","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01674-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01674-x","url":null,"abstract":"Wild and remote, Antarctica and the Arctic are drawing in record numbers of tourists from around the globe, with environmental effects following in their wake. Proactive policies and careful management are needed to save the Earth’s poles from their growing popularity.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 10","pages":"1101-1101"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01674-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145335942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01666-x
Emissions data and machine learning are used to compile a global inventory of industrial chlorinated and brominated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions from 11 sectors across 184 countries in 2018. Emission hotspots are concentrated in Oceania, East Asia and Latin America, with iron ore sintering identified as the dominant source, accounting for about 86% of total emissions.
{"title":"Global hotspots of industrial chlorinated and brominated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01666-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01666-x","url":null,"abstract":"Emissions data and machine learning are used to compile a global inventory of industrial chlorinated and brominated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions from 11 sectors across 184 countries in 2018. Emission hotspots are concentrated in Oceania, East Asia and Latin America, with iron ore sintering identified as the dominant source, accounting for about 86% of total emissions.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1443-1444"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01659-w
Madeline Turland, Colin A. Carter, Bulat Gafarov, Jens Hilscher, Katrina Jessoe
Climate change will reshape global demand and supply for water. Surface water supplies will become more variable, and warming temperatures may increase demand for water. These changes could impose substantial economic costs. Well-functioning water markets can mitigate some of these costs by allocating water to those who value it most. However, storage constraints limit the ability of markets to transfer water over time. Here we use transactions data from 2010 to 2022 to evaluate how water prices in California’s surface and groundwater markets respond to precipitation shocks, and how this response varies with inventory levels and water storage capacity. In groundwater markets, with high inventories, prices are unresponsive to precipitation shocks. In surface water markets, with limited inventories, prices increase strongly when precipitation declines. A 50-inch decrease in annual precipitation, typical when comparing deluge with drought in California, increases the price by US$487 per acre-foot, more than tripling compared with the average wet year. This effect is less pronounced when inventory levels are higher. Increasing storage through the joint management of groundwater and surface water supplies could provide a pathway to reduce the adverse consequences of climate-induced precipitation volatility. This study examines the relationship between water inventories and price dynamics in California’s surface and groundwater markets over 2010–2022 and shows that price fluctuations in surface water markets are tied to precipitation shocks, whereas prices in groundwater markets remain stable over time.
{"title":"Price sensitivity to precipitation and water storage in California","authors":"Madeline Turland, Colin A. Carter, Bulat Gafarov, Jens Hilscher, Katrina Jessoe","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01659-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41893-025-01659-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change will reshape global demand and supply for water. Surface water supplies will become more variable, and warming temperatures may increase demand for water. These changes could impose substantial economic costs. Well-functioning water markets can mitigate some of these costs by allocating water to those who value it most. However, storage constraints limit the ability of markets to transfer water over time. Here we use transactions data from 2010 to 2022 to evaluate how water prices in California’s surface and groundwater markets respond to precipitation shocks, and how this response varies with inventory levels and water storage capacity. In groundwater markets, with high inventories, prices are unresponsive to precipitation shocks. In surface water markets, with limited inventories, prices increase strongly when precipitation declines. A 50-inch decrease in annual precipitation, typical when comparing deluge with drought in California, increases the price by US$487 per acre-foot, more than tripling compared with the average wet year. This effect is less pronounced when inventory levels are higher. Increasing storage through the joint management of groundwater and surface water supplies could provide a pathway to reduce the adverse consequences of climate-induced precipitation volatility. This study examines the relationship between water inventories and price dynamics in California’s surface and groundwater markets over 2010–2022 and shows that price fluctuations in surface water markets are tied to precipitation shocks, whereas prices in groundwater markets remain stable over time.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 12","pages":"1505-1512"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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