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Large language models (LLMs) as agents for augmented democracy. 大型语言模型(LLM)作为增强民主的代理。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0100
Jairo F Gudiño, Umberto Grandi, César Hidalgo

We explore an augmented democracy system built on off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned to augment data on citizens' preferences elicited over policies extracted from the government programmes of the two main candidates of Brazil's 2022 presidential election. We use a train-test cross-validation set-up to estimate the accuracy with which the LLMs predict both: a subject's individual political choices and the aggregate preferences of the full sample of participants. At the individual level, we find that LLMs predict out of sample preferences more accurately than a 'bundle rule', which would assume that citizens always vote for the proposals of the candidate aligned with their self-reported political orientation. At the population level, we show that a probabilistic sample augmented by an LLM provides a more accurate estimate of the aggregate preferences of a population than the non-augmented probabilistic sample alone. Together, these results indicate that policy preference data augmented using LLMs can capture nuances that transcend party lines and represents a promising avenue of research for data augmentation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

我们探索了一种增强民主系统,该系统建立在现成的大型语言模型(LLMs)基础上,对其进行了微调,以增强从巴西 2022 年总统大选两位主要候选人的政府计划中提取的公民政策偏好数据。我们使用训练-测试交叉验证设置来估算 LLM 预测以下两方面的准确性:受试者的个人政治选择和所有参与者样本的总体偏好。在个人层面,我们发现 LLM 预测样本外偏好的准确度高于 "捆绑规则",后者假定公民总是投票支持与其自我报告的政治倾向一致的候选人的提案。在人口层面,我们表明,与单独的非增量概率样本相比,使用 LLM 的增量概率样本能更准确地估计人口的总体偏好。总之,这些结果表明,使用 LLM 增强的政策偏好数据可以捕捉到超越党派界限的细微差别,是数据增强的一个有前途的研究方向。本文是 "共创未来:参与式城市与数字治理 "主题期刊的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Co-designing transport models as a heuristic planning tool. 共同设计运输模型,作为启发式规划工具。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0110
Tanvi Maheshwari, Pieter Fourie

Recently the transportation sector has witnessed several new technologically driven disruptions that have amplified the complexity of city planning and policymaking. Traditional well-established processes of decision-making in urban planning and transportation are proving insufficient to deal with this degree of complexity and uncertainty. This paper proposes an alternative approach, combining qualitative and normative urban design, with quantitative and predictive transport modelling. This requires urban designers and transport modellers to co-create goal-driven and agile transport models that act as a heuristic tool to guide planning decisions in early design stages. Heuristic modelling is informed by design optioning and vice versa in an iterative loop. A case study is presented to demonstrate how this approach is operationalized to study the impacts of automated vehicles on urban planning. Design workshops are used as a method to elicit responses from stakeholders, which are used to co-create the simulation models. This collaborative process grounds the research in real-world practice and enhances the communication of design proposals and research findings across disciplines. By integrating design thinking methods with agent-based transport simulations, this approach provides a better understanding of emergent effects in complex urban systems and improves stakeholder engagement in the planning process.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

最近,交通领域出现了几种新的技术驱动的干扰因素,这些干扰因素增加了城市规划和决策的复杂性。事实证明,城市规划和交通领域传统的既定决策过程不足以应对这种复杂性和不确定性。本文提出了一种替代方法,将定性和规范性城市设计与定量和预测性交通建模相结合。这就要求城市设计师和交通建模人员共同创建目标驱动的敏捷交通模型,作为启发式工具,在早期设计阶段指导规划决策。在迭代循环中,启发式建模以设计方案为依据,反之亦然。本报告介绍了一个案例研究,以展示如何运用这种方法来研究自动驾驶汽车对城市规划的影响。设计研讨会被用作一种从利益相关者那里获得回应的方法,这些回应被用于共同创建模拟模型。这种合作过程使研究立足于现实世界的实践,并加强了设计建议和研究成果的跨学科交流。通过将设计思维方法与基于代理的交通模拟相结合,这种方法可以更好地理解复杂城市系统中的突发效应,并提高利益相关者在规划过程中的参与度。
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引用次数: 0
Empowering minorities and everyone in participatory budgeting: an agent-based modelling perspective. 在参与式预算编制中增强少数群体和每个人的权能:基于代理建模的视角。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0090
Dino Carpentras, Regula Hänggli Fricker, Dirk Helbing

Currently, there are increasing attempts to better involve citizens in political decision processes. A successful approach in that regard has been participatory budgeting (PB), which allows citizens to propose projects and then decide how to distribute a given budget over them. Meanwhile, the literature on collective intelligence (CI) has also shown the ability of groups to solve complex problems. Thus, by combining CI and PB, it should be possible for citizens to identify problems and create their own solutions. In this article, we study this possibility by using agent-based models. Specifically, we first show that a system combining CI and PB produces solutions that strongly penalize minorities if the solution quality depends on group size. Then, we introduce an approach that can overcome this issue. Indeed, by using a common knowledge base for the storage of partial solutions, the quality of solutions of minorities can benefit from the work of the majority, thereby promoting fairness. Interestingly, this approach also benefits majorities, as the quality of their solutions is further improved by the work of the minorities, thus reaching better solutions for everyone. This stresses the potential and importance of an open innovation approach, which is committed to information sharing.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

目前,人们越来越多地尝试让公民更好地参与政治决策过程。参与式预算编制(PB)就是这方面的一个成功方法,它允许公民提出项目建议,然后决定如何将给定的预算分配给这些项目。同时,有关集体智慧(CI)的文献也显示了群体解决复杂问题的能力。因此,将集体智慧(CI)和项目预算(PB)结合起来,公民就有可能发现问题并创造自己的解决方案。在本文中,我们将利用基于代理的模型来研究这种可能性。具体来说,我们首先表明,如果解决方案的质量取决于群体规模,那么结合了公民参与和决策制定的系统所产生的解决方案会对少数群体造成严重影响。然后,我们介绍了一种可以克服这一问题的方法。事实上,通过使用共同的知识库来存储部分解决方案,少数群体的解决方案质量可以从多数群体的工作中获益,从而促进公平。有趣的是,这种方法还能让多数人受益,因为少数人的工作能进一步提高他们解决方案的质量,从而为每个人提供更好的解决方案。本文是 "共同创造未来:参与式城市与数字治理 "专题的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Resisting technological inevitability: Google Wing's delivery drones and the fight for our skies. 抵制技术的必然性:Google Wing 的无人机送货和我们的天空之战。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0107
Anna Zenz, Julia Powles

Efforts to realize on-demand delivery drone networks present a stark example of how the technology industry seeks to dominate new markets, regardless of societal consequences. Analyzing the most advanced of these efforts-Google Wing's operations in Australia since 2017-we identify the instrumental role of narratives of technological inevitability (of tech expansion, and societal adaptation) in catalyzing new sky-based commerce. Yet the interest of this case study lies in a twist. Google Wing's rollout in Australia's capital, Canberra, initially proceeded as a textbook example of tech expansion. However, citizen engagement and public governance dramatically intervened and, we argue, disrupted the logic of technological inevitability. This article is the first to analyze these dynamics, many of which originated with Bonython Against Drones (BAD), a community action group forged from those who first lived under Google's food delivery drones. The article exposes the flawed logic of technological inevitability as the enabling force of tech expansion; characterizes the governance failures that help install corporate visions for public goods; animates the potentialities of communities living with new technologies; and identifies the sky itself, as both a public commons and a vital, living habitat, as a key future locus for participatory governance. This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

实现无人机按需送货网络的努力提供了一个鲜明的例子,说明科技行业如何不顾社会后果,力图主导新市场。通过分析其中最先进的努力--谷歌无人机翼自2017年以来在澳大利亚的运营,我们发现了技术必然性(技术扩张和社会适应)叙事在催化新的空中商业中的工具性作用。然而,本案例研究的趣味在于一个转折。谷歌翼在澳大利亚首都堪培拉的推广最初是作为技术扩张的教科书范例进行的。然而,公民参与和公共治理戏剧性地介入其中,我们认为,这打破了技术必然性的逻辑。这篇文章首次分析了这些动态,其中许多源于 "反无人机社区行动组织"(Bonython Against Drones,BAD)。这篇文章揭露了技术必然性作为技术扩张推动力的错误逻辑;描述了有助于建立企业公共产品愿景的治理失败;激发了与新技术共存的社区的潜力;并指出天空本身既是公共公域,也是重要的、有生命力的栖息地,是未来参与式治理的关键地点。本文是 "共创未来:参与式城市与数字治理 "主题刊物的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Complex systems perspective in assessing risks in artificial intelligence. 从复杂系统角度评估人工智能风险。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0109
Daniel Kondor, Valerie Hafez, Sudhang Shankar, Rania Wazir, Fariba Karimi

In this article, we identify challenges in the complex interaction between artificial intelligence (AI) systems and society. We argue that AI systems need to be studied in their socio-political context to be able to better appreciate a diverse set of potential outcomes that emerge from long-term feedback between technological development, inequalities and collective decision-making processes. This means that assessing the risks from the deployment of any specific technology presents unique challenges. We propose that risk assessments concerning AI systems should incorporate a complex systems perspective, with adequate models that can represent short- and long-term effects and feedback, along with an emphasis on increasing public engagement and participation in the process.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

在本文中,我们指出了人工智能(AI)系统与社会之间复杂互动所面临的挑战。我们认为,需要在社会政治背景下研究人工智能系统,才能更好地理解技术发展、不平等和集体决策过程之间的长期反馈所产生的各种潜在结果。这意味着,评估任何特定技术的部署风险都会带来独特的挑战。我们建议,有关人工智能系统的风险评估应纳入复杂系统的视角,建立能够代表短期和长期影响及反馈的适当模型,同时强调在这一过程中加强公众的参与。
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引用次数: 0
No one-size-fits-all: Multi-actor perspectives on public participation and digital participatory platforms. 不搞一刀切:关于公众参与和数字参与平台的多方观点。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0111
J E Gonçalves, I Ioannou, T Verma

This paper explores the perspectives of different urban actors regarding public participation in the context of the increasing incorporation of digital technologies and urban platforms. The study is based on three workshops with local governance actors, six semi-structured interviews with academics in the fields of public participation and digital technologies and a citizen survey with 260 respondents. The results provide multi-perspective insights into the challenges of participatory processes and are synthesized into three contributions: (i) guidelines for effective public participation, including factors that encourage or discourage citizen engagement; (ii) guidelines for designing participatory platforms, highlighting specific features that promote digital engagement (i.e. social media, gamification and user-friendly interfaces), and (iii) a typology of digital participation platforms to connect the diverse needs of actor groups with the various possibilities provided by new technologies. The guidelines provide concrete recommendations to support both urban practitioners and interface designers in designing participatory strategies and platforms, respectively. Recognizing that there is no-one-size-fits-all platform, the typology provides a framework for the assessment and further development of digital platforms for public participation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

本文探讨了在数字技术和城市平台日益融入的背景下,不同城市参与者对公众参与的看法。研究基于与地方治理参与者的三次研讨会、与公众参与和数字技术领域学者的六次半结构式访谈,以及一项有 260 名受访者参与的市民调查。研究结果从多个角度揭示了参与过程所面临的挑战,并归纳为三项贡献:(i) 有效公众参与准则,包括鼓励或阻碍公民参与的因素;(ii) 设计参与平台的准则,强调促进数字参与的具体特征(即社交媒体、游戏化和用户友好界面);(iii) 数字参与平台类型学,将参与者群体的不同需求与新技术提供的各种可能性联系起来。指导原则提供了具体建议,分别支持城市从业者和界面设计师设计参与战略和平台。认识到不存在放之四海而皆准的平台,该类型学为评估和进一步开发公众参与数字平台提供了一个框架。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping sidewalk accessibility with smartphone imagery and Visual AI: a participatory approach. 利用智能手机图像和视觉人工智能绘制人行道无障碍地图:一种参与式方法。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0106
Diego Morra, Xiaosheng Zhu, Chang Liu, Kyle Fu, Fábio Duarte, Simone Mora, Zhengbing He, Carlo Ratti

Evaluating sidewalk accessibility is conventionally a manual and time-consuming task that requires specialized personnel. While recent developments in Visual AI have paved the way for automating data analysis, the lack of sidewalk accessibility datasets remains a significant challenge. This study presents the design and validation of Sidewalk AI Scanner, a web app that enables quick, crowdsourced and low-cost sidewalk mapping. The app enables a participatory approach to data collection through imagery captured using smartphone cameras. Subsequently, dedicated algorithms automatically identify sidewalk features such as width, obstacles or pavement conditions. Though not a replacement for high-resolution sensing methods, this method leverages data crowdsourcing as a strategy to produce a highly scalable, city-level dataset of sidewalk accessibility, offering a novel perspective on the city's inclusivity; fostering community empowerment and participatory planning.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

评估人行道的无障碍程度通常是一项需要专业人员手工操作的耗时任务。虽然视觉人工智能的最新发展为数据分析自动化铺平了道路,但人行道无障碍数据集的缺乏仍是一项重大挑战。本研究介绍了人行道人工智能扫描仪的设计和验证,这是一款可实现快速、众包和低成本人行道测绘的网络应用程序。该应用程序通过使用智能手机摄像头捕捉图像,以参与式方法收集数据。随后,专用算法会自动识别人行道的特征,如宽度、障碍物或路面状况。虽然不能取代高分辨率的传感方法,但这种方法利用数据众包作为一种策略,生成了一个高度可扩展的城市级人行道可达性数据集,为城市的包容性提供了一个新的视角;促进了社区赋权和参与式规划。
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引用次数: 0
Computational diplomacy: how 'hackathons for good' feed a participatory future for multilateralism in the digital age. 计算外交:"黑客马拉松公益活动 "如何为数字时代的多边主义提供一个参与性的未来。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0103
Thomas Maillart, Lucia Gomez, Ewa Lombard, Alexander Nolte, Francesco Pisano

This article explores the role of hackathons for good in building a community of software and hardware developers focused on addressing global sustainable development goal (SDG) challenges. We theorize this movement as computational diplomacy: a decentralized, participatory process for digital governance that leverages collective intelligence to tackle major global issues. Analysing Devpost and GitHub data reveals that 30% of hackathons since 2010 have addressed SDG topics, employing diverse technologies to create innovative solutions. Hackathons serve as crucial kairos moments, sparking innovation bursts that drive both immediate project outcomes and long-term production. We propose that these events harness the neurobiological basis of human cooperation and empathy, fostering a collective sense of purpose and reducing interpersonal prejudice. This bottom-up approach to digital governance integrates software development, human collective intelligence and collective action, creating a dynamic model for transformative change. By leveraging kairos moments, computational diplomacy promotes a more inclusive and effective model for digital multilateral governance of the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

本文探讨了 "黑客马拉松公益活动 "在建立一个专注于应对全球可持续发展目标(SDG)挑战的软件和硬件开发者社区中的作用。我们将这一运动理论化为 "计算外交":一种去中心化、参与式的数字治理过程,利用集体智慧解决重大全球性问题。对 Devpost 和 GitHub 数据的分析表明,自 2010 年以来,30% 的黑客马拉松活动都涉及了 SDG 主题,并利用各种技术创造了创新解决方案。黑客马拉松是关键的 "开端"(kairos)时刻,它激发了创新的火花,推动了即时项目成果和长期生产。我们认为,这些活动利用了人类合作与共鸣的神经生物学基础,培养了集体目标感,减少了人际偏见。这种自下而上的数字治理方法整合了软件开发、人类集体智慧和集体行动,为变革创造了一个动态模型。通过利用 "开端时刻"(kairos moments),计算外交为未来的数字多边治理推广了一种更具包容性和更有效的模式。本文是 "共创未来:参与式城市与数字治理 "主题刊物的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing macroscopic traffic rhythms and city size in affluent cities: insights from a global panel data of 25 cities. 分析富裕城市的宏观交通节奏和城市规模:来自全球 25 个城市面板数据的启示。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0102
Martín Saavedra, Alberto P Muñuzuri, Monica Menendez, Jose Balsa-Barreiro

The world is undergoing a rapid process of urbanization. Currently, it is estimated that over 55% of the global population resides in urban areas, a figure projected to reach nearly 70% by 2050. This trend is accompanied by a spatial reorganization of human activities on a global scale, bringing about significant changes in mobility patterns and urban traffic management capabilities. Consequently, it is imperative to evaluate, on a broad scale, how city size influences traffic capacity. This study aims to analyse on-road traffic patterns using a diverse dataset comprising cities of varying population sizes, geographical extents and global locations. Specifically, we conduct an analysis encompassing 25 cities primarily situated in several European countries (France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), as well as in North America (Canada) and East Asia (Japan and Taiwan). Our findings shed light on how physical aspects related to urban form influence mobility patterns, offering insights for the implementation of more effective and sustainable traffic management policies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

世界正在经历快速的城市化进程。据估计,目前全球 55% 以上的人口居住在城市地区,预计到 2050 年,这一数字将达到近 70%。伴随着这一趋势的是全球范围内人类活动的空间重组,给流动模式和城市交通管理能力带来了重大变化。因此,有必要对城市规模如何影响交通容量进行广泛评估。本研究旨在利用由不同人口规模、地理范围和全球位置的城市组成的多样化数据集来分析道路交通模式。具体来说,我们对主要位于欧洲几个国家(法国、意大利、德国、西班牙、瑞士和英国)、北美(加拿大)和东亚(日本和台湾)的 25 座城市进行了分析。我们的研究结果揭示了与城市形态相关的物理因素如何影响交通模式,为实施更有效、更可持续的交通管理政策提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the cohesion-diversity trade-off: understanding the role of facilitators in co-creation using agent-based modelling. 驾驭凝聚力与多样性之间的权衡:利用基于代理的建模了解促进者在共同创造中的作用。
IF 4.3 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0093
Sachit Mahajan

In the domain of participatory research and co-creation, understanding the dynamic interplay between group cohesion and diversity is pivotal for fostering innovation. While diversity fuels the generation of novel ideas, cohesion ensures these ideas are effectively synthesized and implemented. This study aims to explore the nuanced role that facilitators play in navigating the balance between cohesion and diversity, particularly in groups characterized by pronounced faultlines. Employing agent-based modeling, the study examines how facilitators affect the cohesion-diversity nexus. The findings reveal a complex facilitator's paradox. While facilitative actions can successfully enhance group cohesion by mitigating the negative effect of faultlines, such efforts often inadvertently reduce the within-group diversity that is crucial for sparking innovative outcomes. These findings challenge the conventional view of faultlines as merely divisive and underscore the intricate role of facilitators in modulating group dynamics. This research discusses a novel framework for dynamic facilitation strategies, emphasizing the need for facilitators to skillfully balance cohesion and diversity. This framework not only enriches the theoretical understanding of group facilitation but also offers practical insights for optimizing collaborative innovation in diverse settings. This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

在参与式研究和共同创造领域,理解群体凝聚力和多样性之间的动态相互作用对于促进创新至关重要。多样性能促进新想法的产生,而凝聚力则能确保这些想法得到有效的综合和实施。本研究旨在探索促进者在平衡凝聚力和多样性方面所扮演的微妙角色,尤其是在有明显断层的群体中。本研究采用基于代理的建模方法,探讨了促进者如何影响凝聚力与多样性之间的关系。研究结果揭示了一个复杂的促进者悖论。虽然促进者的行动可以通过减轻断层的负面影响来成功增强群体凝聚力,但这种努力往往会无意中减少对激发创新成果至关重要的群体内部多样性。这些发现挑战了将断层线仅仅视为分裂的传统观点,强调了促进者在调节群体动态中的复杂作用。本研究讨论了一个新颖的动态促进策略框架,强调促进者需要巧妙地平衡凝聚力和多样性。这一框架不仅丰富了对小组促进的理论理解,还为优化不同环境下的合作创新提供了实用见解。本文是 "共同创造未来:参与式城市与数字治理 "主题刊物的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
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