In this work we introduce a general equilibrium model with landlords, indebted owner-occupiers and renters to study housing markets' dynamics. We estimate it by using standard Bayesian methods and match the US data of the last decades. This framework is particularly suited to explain current trends on housing markets. We highlight the crucial relationship between interest rates, house prices and rents, and argue that it helps understanding the main driving forces. Our analysis suggests that current developments on housing markets can play a role for a recovery from the Covid pandemic as they have an expansionary effect on aggregate output. Moreover, we account for the heterogeneous impact of crisis-induced policies depending on agents' status on the housing market. We show how, despite an increase in housing prices, the welfare of landlords has been negatively hit. This is associated to the joint decrease in returns on housing and financial assets that reduces their financial incomes.
{"title":"Real Estate and Rental Markets During COVID Times","authors":"E. Iliopulos, Bertrand Achou, Hippolyte d’Albis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3849199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3849199","url":null,"abstract":"In this work we introduce a general equilibrium model with landlords, indebted owner-occupiers and renters to study housing markets' dynamics. We estimate it by using standard Bayesian methods and match the US data of the last decades. This framework is particularly suited to explain current trends on housing markets. We highlight the crucial relationship between interest rates, house prices and rents, and argue that it helps understanding the main driving forces. Our analysis suggests that current developments on housing markets can play a role for a recovery from the Covid pandemic as they have an expansionary effect on aggregate output. Moreover, we account for the heterogeneous impact of crisis-induced policies depending on agents' status on the housing market. We show how, despite an increase in housing prices, the welfare of landlords has been negatively hit. This is associated to the joint decrease in returns on housing and financial assets that reduces their financial incomes.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81342211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 has required major changes in behavior and created significant health and economic concerns for many individuals. In this context, we have explored ethical judgments as part of a larger project on market ethics. We found that marketing practices judged as highly unethical before the pandemic, were judged to be much less unethical one year later. Of the questionable practices examined during the lockdown, those related to the pandemic (e.g., price gouging on hand sanitizer) were generally evaluated the most unethical, equal to or more unethical than the most egregious practices previously tested. Experience of lockdown affected ethical judgments, with number of people in the household, lockdown duration, and time spent on social media associated with less unethical judgments. Broader effects of the pandemic, including negative affect, diminished well-being, and financial difficulties, were also associated with less ethical concern. Implications for policymakers and marketing practitioners are discussed.
{"title":"Coronavirus Ethics: Judgments of Market Ethics in a Pandemic","authors":"Yvetta Simonyan, N. Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3750616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3750616","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 has required major changes in behavior and created significant health and economic concerns for many individuals. In this context, we have explored ethical judgments as part of a larger project on market ethics. We found that marketing practices judged as highly unethical before the pandemic, were judged to be much less unethical one year later. Of the questionable practices examined during the lockdown, those related to the pandemic (e.g., price gouging on hand sanitizer) were generally evaluated the most unethical, equal to or more unethical than the most egregious practices previously tested. Experience of lockdown affected ethical judgments, with number of people in the household, lockdown duration, and time spent on social media associated with less unethical judgments. Broader effects of the pandemic, including negative affect, diminished well-being, and financial difficulties, were also associated with less ethical concern. Implications for policymakers and marketing practitioners are discussed.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85449468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the help of the US government and committed funding from bank credit lines, the US corporate sector responded to the COVID-19 cash flow shock by issuing long-term debt to increase cash holdings. I use a case study, evidence from recent research and a theoretical model to explain the logic behind the changes in corporate financial policy that happened during 2020, and to discuss the importance of US government policies to support the market for long-term debt. I also point out to open research questions about liquidity management, in particular questions that were highlighted by how companies reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Liquidity Management During the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Heitor Almeida","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3759618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3759618","url":null,"abstract":"With the help of the US government and committed funding from bank credit lines, the US corporate sector responded to the COVID-19 cash flow shock by issuing long-term debt to increase cash holdings. I use a case study, evidence from recent research and a theoretical model to explain the logic behind the changes in corporate financial policy that happened during 2020, and to discuss the importance of US government policies to support the market for long-term debt. I also point out to open research questions about liquidity management, in particular questions that were highlighted by how companies reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78764273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic crisis like COVID-19, however, has posed a dilemma to the policymakers since a long-term restrictive social distancing or even lockdown will keep economic cost rising. This paper investigates an efficient social distancing policy to manage the integrated risk from economic health and public health issues for COVID-19 using a stochastic epidemic modeling with mobility controls. The social distancing is to restrict the community mobility, which was recently accessible with big data analytics. This paper takes advantage of the community mobility data to model the COVID-19 processes and infer the COVID-19 driven economic values from major market index price, which allow us to formulate the search of the efficient social distancing policy as a stochastic control problem. We propose to solve the problem with a deep-learning approach. By applying our framework to the US data, we empirically examine the efficiency of the US social distancing policy and offer recommendations generated from the algorithm.
{"title":"Efficient Social Distancing for COVID-19: An Integration of Economic Health and Public Health","authors":"Kexin Chen, Chi Seng Pun, H. Y. Wong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3742507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742507","url":null,"abstract":"Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic crisis like COVID-19, however, has posed a dilemma to the policymakers since a long-term restrictive social distancing or even lockdown will keep economic cost rising. This paper investigates an efficient social distancing policy to manage the integrated risk from economic health and public health issues for COVID-19 using a stochastic epidemic modeling with mobility controls. The social distancing is to restrict the community mobility, which was recently accessible with big data analytics. This paper takes advantage of the community mobility data to model the COVID-19 processes and infer the COVID-19 driven economic values from major market index price, which allow us to formulate the search of the efficient social distancing policy as a stochastic control problem. We propose to solve the problem with a deep-learning approach. By applying our framework to the US data, we empirically examine the efficiency of the US social distancing policy and offer recommendations generated from the algorithm.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79118263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 devastated the US labor market threatening homeowners’ ability to stay current on their mortgage. During the Great Recession, payment relief was more difficult to come by whereas the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provided most impacted homeowners with up to 12 months of payment relief if they attested to COVID-related hardship. However, the CARES Act did not cover everyone—it was silent on non-federally backed mortgage holders and those experiencing non-COVID related hardship. Furthermore, many borrowers were either not aware of mortgage relief options and/or were worried about potential balloon payments after forbearance ends. How well did this widespread intervention work? Did it reach all those who might have benefitted? Is there evidence of widespread moral hazard? Using checking account data linked to loan-level mortgage servicing data, we explore these questions. We find that while a third of homeowners in forbearance made all payments to date, a small fraction of homeowners not in forbearance did miss payments. Also, we find little evidence of widespread moral hazard. Families using forbearance to miss mortgage payments showed larger drops in total income than other homeowners and experienced income changes similar to those who have gone delinquent without the protection of forbearance. Also, families in forbearance were more likely to have lost labor income and received UI than families not in forbearance. Finally, we find that forbearance helped families with low levels of liquid assets to maintain their cash buffers. Together these results suggest that CARES Act mortgage forbearance policies helped homeowners experiencing financial hardship in a material way by allowing them to miss payments without adversely affecting their credit scores and maintain their small cash buffers in a world with a lot more economic uncertainty. In addition, these benefits came with little evidence of material moral hazard. However, there is room for improvement in future legislation as a small fraction of homeowners facing hardship did not benefit from forbearance and one main impediment was confusion around balloon payments. All in all the CARES Act forbearance policies appear so far to have been a large step in the right direction relative to policies during the Great Recession.
{"title":"Did Mortgage Forbearance Reach the Right Homeowners? Income and Liquid Assets Trends for Homeowners during the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Diana Farrell, Fiona Greig, Chen Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3742332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742332","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 devastated the US labor market threatening homeowners’ ability to stay current on their mortgage. During the Great Recession, payment relief was more difficult to come by whereas the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provided most impacted homeowners with up to 12 months of payment relief if they attested to COVID-related hardship. However, the CARES Act did not cover everyone—it was silent on non-federally backed mortgage holders and those experiencing non-COVID related hardship. Furthermore, many borrowers were either not aware of mortgage relief options and/or were worried about potential balloon payments after forbearance ends. How well did this widespread intervention work? Did it reach all those who might have benefitted? Is there evidence of widespread moral hazard? Using checking account data linked to loan-level mortgage servicing data, we explore these questions. We find that while a third of homeowners in forbearance made all payments to date, a small fraction of homeowners not in forbearance did miss payments. Also, we find little evidence of widespread moral hazard. Families using forbearance to miss mortgage payments showed larger drops in total income than other homeowners and experienced income changes similar to those who have gone delinquent without the protection of forbearance. Also, families in forbearance were more likely to have lost labor income and received UI than families not in forbearance. Finally, we find that forbearance helped families with low levels of liquid assets to maintain their cash buffers. Together these results suggest that CARES Act mortgage forbearance policies helped homeowners experiencing financial hardship in a material way by allowing them to miss payments without adversely affecting their credit scores and maintain their small cash buffers in a world with a lot more economic uncertainty. In addition, these benefits came with little evidence of material moral hazard. However, there is room for improvement in future legislation as a small fraction of homeowners facing hardship did not benefit from forbearance and one main impediment was confusion around balloon payments. All in all the CARES Act forbearance policies appear so far to have been a large step in the right direction relative to policies during the Great Recession.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78117371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Ashraf, Erica M. Field, Alessandra Voena, R. Ziparo
Fertility decisions are often made by partners who may disagree. We develop a model in which an initial gender gap in ideal fertility prevents effective communication between spouses about the costs of childbearing incurred by women. This mechanism is likely to further widen the spousal disagreement over fertility in environments where maternal health risk is high and imperfectly observed. We design an intervention to experimentally vary exposure to information about maternal health costs to either the husband or the wife on a sample of approximately 500 couples in peri-urban Lusaka, in Zambia. At baseline, husbands display lower knowledge of maternal mortality and morbidity compared to their wives. At followup, about one year after the intervention, women whose husbands are treated experience a 43% reduction in the probability of being pregnant. Consistent with our hypothesis, men who are directly treated report lower desired fertility and have more accurate beliefs about their wife’s desired fertility than the husbands of treated women. Couples in which the husband is treated also increase communication about family planning, and experience greater marital satisfaction.
{"title":"Maternal Mortality Risk and Spousal Differences in the Demand for Children","authors":"N. Ashraf, Erica M. Field, Alessandra Voena, R. Ziparo","doi":"10.3386/w28220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28220","url":null,"abstract":"Fertility decisions are often made by partners who may disagree. We develop a model in which an initial gender gap in ideal fertility prevents effective communication between spouses about the costs of childbearing incurred by women. This mechanism is likely to further widen the spousal disagreement over fertility in environments where maternal health risk is high and imperfectly observed. We design an intervention to experimentally vary exposure to information about maternal health costs to either the husband or the wife on a sample of approximately 500 couples in peri-urban Lusaka, in Zambia. At baseline, husbands display lower knowledge of maternal mortality and morbidity compared to their wives. At followup, about one year after the intervention, women whose husbands are treated experience a 43% reduction in the probability of being pregnant. Consistent with our hypothesis, men who are directly treated report lower desired fertility and have more accurate beliefs about their wife’s desired fertility than the husbands of treated women. Couples in which the husband is treated also increase communication about family planning, and experience greater marital satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86934863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of “debt overhang” and thus the opportunity for a “voluntary debt exchange”: complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors’ losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts.
{"title":"Sovereign Debt Standstills","authors":"J. Hatchondo, L. Martinez, César Sosa‐Padilla","doi":"10.3386/w28292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28292","url":null,"abstract":"As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of “debt overhang” and thus the opportunity for a “voluntary debt exchange”: complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors’ losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76377977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper provides an overview of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and makes an effort to assess the challenges and uncertainties in the context of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The narrative for the five SSPs are based on global assumptions and misses out on the country specific processes that could influence future socioeconomic trajectories. The assessment finds that the basic assumptions for macroeconomic growth - driven by human capital efficiency, no future growth disruptions and the future growth align with the historical development trajectories are vulnerable to risks posed by climate change and shocks imposed by pandemics. Also, SSPs do not factor in the sectoral contribution of agriculture, manufacturing and services which gets impacted through different channels during the pandemic and would have heterogeneous impacts across countries. The non-inclusion of disruption in projections under SSPs results in inflated growth and underestimation of vulnerability and economic loses. This is detrimental for choice of mitigation and adaptation policies and sustainable development pathways. The sudden change in internal migration due to shocks like pandemic which has essentially been an urban phenomenon and their impact on dynamics of urbanization has highlighted the importance of inclusion of migration in urbanization projection for SSPs. The uncertainties and challenges exposed by the pandemic have provided the opportunity to reassess the SSPs. There is an urgent need for a bottom-up approach of developing extended SSPs specific to the national or sub-national level and make projections by incorporating the country specific inputs in the model that are likely to be impacted by disruptions. This would provide a more realistic outcome that would be closer to the expected pathways and reduce uncertainties associated with the projections.
{"title":"Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – Uncertainties and Challenges Post COVID-19","authors":"Samraj Sahay","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3764350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3764350","url":null,"abstract":"The paper provides an overview of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and makes an effort to assess the challenges and uncertainties in the context of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The narrative for the five SSPs are based on global assumptions and misses out on the country specific processes that could influence future socioeconomic trajectories. The assessment finds that the basic assumptions for macroeconomic growth - driven by human capital efficiency, no future growth disruptions and the future growth align with the historical development trajectories are vulnerable to risks posed by climate change and shocks imposed by pandemics. Also, SSPs do not factor in the sectoral contribution of agriculture, manufacturing and services which gets impacted through different channels during the pandemic and would have heterogeneous impacts across countries. The non-inclusion of disruption in projections under SSPs results in inflated growth and underestimation of vulnerability and economic loses. This is detrimental for choice of mitigation and adaptation policies and sustainable development pathways. The sudden change in internal migration due to shocks like pandemic which has essentially been an urban phenomenon and their impact on dynamics of urbanization has highlighted the importance of inclusion of migration in urbanization projection for SSPs. The uncertainties and challenges exposed by the pandemic have provided the opportunity to reassess the SSPs. There is an urgent need for a bottom-up approach of developing extended SSPs specific to the national or sub-national level and make projections by incorporating the country specific inputs in the model that are likely to be impacted by disruptions. This would provide a more realistic outcome that would be closer to the expected pathways and reduce uncertainties associated with the projections.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85390897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the period around the COVID-19 crisis to examine the potential fragility risks posed by mutual funds to the municipal bond market. Induced by unprecedented outflows from muni mutual funds, we show that bonds held by these funds trade substantially more and suffer greater price depressions than bonds not in muni funds. Dealer liquidity provision declines more in these bonds, exacerbating their market conditions. Importantly, such destabilizing effects have reshaped market perceptions on the fragility risks posed by mutual funds even after the normalization of muni fund flows. In the aftermath of the muni crisis, dealers reduce their inventories in bonds held by mutual funds and yield spreads widen notably in these bonds, especially when they are held by mutual funds with greater COVID-19 exposure and less liquid portfolios.
{"title":"Mutual Fund Fragility, Dealer Liquidity Provisions, and the Pricing of Municipal Bonds","authors":"Yi Li, Maureen O'Hara, Xing (Alex) Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3728943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728943","url":null,"abstract":"We study the period around the COVID-19 crisis to examine the potential fragility risks posed by mutual funds to the municipal bond market. Induced by unprecedented outflows from muni mutual funds, we show that bonds held by these funds trade substantially more and suffer greater price depressions than bonds not in muni funds. Dealer liquidity provision declines more in these bonds, exacerbating their market conditions. Importantly, such destabilizing effects have reshaped market perceptions on the fragility risks posed by mutual funds even after the normalization of muni fund flows. In the aftermath of the muni crisis, dealers reduce their inventories in bonds held by mutual funds and yield spreads widen notably in these bonds, especially when they are held by mutual funds with greater COVID-19 exposure and less liquid portfolios.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89887313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The EU implemented the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in response to the 2008 financial crisis to deal with short-term impacts of future shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. We link a model that intertemporally optimizes the handling of banked allowances every five years with one that simulates the annual working of the EU ETS including the MSR with its potential cancelling. Neglecting the pandemic, 2.16 billion allowances are cancelled. Accounting for the pandemic, 0.28 billion additional allowances are cancelled if the European economy fully recovers by 2021, which even overcompensates the 2020 drop in CO2 emissions. Additional cancelling increases when the pandemic lasts longer, meaning that the MSR even outperforms its initial purpose.
{"title":"MSR Under Exogenous Shock: The Case of COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Valeriya Azarova, Mathias Mier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3724330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3724330","url":null,"abstract":"The EU implemented the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in response to the 2008 financial crisis to deal with short-term impacts of future shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. We link a model that intertemporally optimizes the handling of banked allowances every five years with one that simulates the annual working of the EU ETS including the MSR with its potential cancelling. Neglecting the pandemic, 2.16 billion allowances are cancelled. Accounting for the pandemic, 0.28 billion additional allowances are cancelled if the European economy fully recovers by 2021, which even overcompensates the 2020 drop in CO2 emissions. Additional cancelling increases when the pandemic lasts longer, meaning that the MSR even outperforms its initial purpose.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87695437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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