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Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model 基于贝叶斯网络和 Probit 模型的液氨储罐风险评估
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12560
Cheng Zhang, Ziyun Wang, Xingbai Chen, Yue Xiang
This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment method to predict the potential risks of liquid ammonia tanks. The method combines probabilistic prediction and consequence assessment: the former is predicted by Bayesian networks derived from bow‐tie mapping, in which the conditional probabilities are determined by analytic hierarchy process, the latter is calculated based on numerical simulation of accident consequences and Probit probability model. The application results show that the method can be used for quantitative risk assessment of liquid ammonia storage tank, and the Bayesian network model is efficient and stable, which can realize risk prediction, accident causes analysis and risk mitigation analysis. Human errors during production or maintenance and corrosion are the main causes of liquid ammonia leakage. Toxicity has the greatest effect on the risk of liquid ammonia tanks. Risk mitigation measures can significantly reduce individual risk and societal risk. The obtained results provide meaningful guidance for the prevention and risk mitigation strategies of liquid ammonia leakage accidents, so as to improve the safety level of liquid ammonia during storage.
本文介绍了一种预测液氨储罐潜在风险的定量风险评估方法。该方法将概率预测与后果评估相结合:前者通过由弓形领带映射衍生的贝叶斯网络进行预测,其中条件概率由层次分析法确定;后者基于事故后果数值模拟和 Probit 概率模型进行计算。应用结果表明,该方法可用于液氨储罐的定量风险评估,贝叶斯网络模型高效稳定,可实现风险预测、事故原因分析和风险缓解分析。生产或维护过程中的人为失误以及腐蚀是造成液氨泄漏的主要原因。毒性对液氨储罐的风险影响最大。风险缓解措施可以大大降低个人风险和社会风险。研究结果为液氨泄漏事故的预防和风险缓解策略提供了有意义的指导,从而提高液氨在储存过程中的安全水平。
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引用次数: 0
Implementation of quantitative risk and cost–benefit analysis in an aging offshore facility 在老化海上设施中实施定量风险和成本效益分析
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12558
Khoir Lazuardi, Anggraini Ratih Kumaraningrum, Heri Hermansyah
Riser shutdown valves (SDVs) are installed to isolate hydrocarbon through a subsea pipeline or to protect platforms and personnel from an unintended release of hydrocarbons. Unfortunately, the volume of gas leaking through the SDV is sometimes beyond the predetermined criteria. Therefore, a quantitative risk assessment is needed by conducting cost–benefit analysis (CBA). This is the methodology of this study. First, we carry out a frequency analysis to calculate the frequency of release from an isolatable section using an estimate of the release frequency, event tree analysis, and escalation from consequence modeling. Second, we study the consequences of modeling. Third, we carry out risk analysis and evaluation. Fourth, we do CBA calculation. Fifth, we consider the other perspectives. The results of this study can predict the possibility of riser SDV leakage in offshore facilities during the aging period and optimize operating and investment costs while maintaining safety to reduce the possibility of fire explosions. It poses a challenge because of the complexity of operational systems involving multiple potential contributors and multiple safety measures. The study results show that the probability of fire prediction at SDV with processing facilities increases from 8.10 × 10−09 to 7.93 × 10−05 for the worst case scenario. Case studies show that application of the CBA model can be used to optimize the allocation of safety investments.
安装立管关闭阀(sdv)是为了通过海底管道隔离碳氢化合物,或者保护平台和人员免受意外碳氢化合物泄漏的影响。不幸的是,通过SDV泄漏的气体体积有时会超出预定的标准。因此,需要通过成本效益分析(CBA)进行定量的风险评估。这是本研究的方法论。首先,我们执行频率分析,使用释放频率的估计、事件树分析和结果建模的升级,从可隔离的部分计算释放频率。其次,我们研究了建模的后果。第三,我们进行风险分析和评估。第四,我们做CBA计算。第五,我们考虑其他方面。研究结果可以预测海上设施老化期立管SDV泄漏的可能性,在保证安全的同时优化运营和投资成本,降低火灾爆炸的可能性。由于涉及多个潜在贡献者和多种安全措施的操作系统的复杂性,它提出了一个挑战。研究结果表明,在最坏情况下,有加工设施的SDV火灾预测概率从8.10 × 10−09增加到7.93 × 10−05。实例分析表明,CBA模型可用于安全投资的优化配置。
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引用次数: 0
Structural response for vented hydrogen-air deflagrations: Effects of volumetric blockage ratio 通风式氢气-空气爆燃的结构响应:体积堵塞比的影响
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12555
Jingui Wang, Zhixing Liang, Jiacheng Lin, Hong Feng, Su Zhang
The explosion venting experiments of hydrogen-air premixed gas were carried out in a 1-m3 cuboid container. The effects of the obstacles parallel to the vent on the structural response of the container during the explosion venting were investigated. The internal overpressure and acceleration of the vessel wall were captured by acceleration and pressure sensors, respectively. The time–frequency distributions of pressure and acceleration were obtained by a Short-Time Fast Fourier Transform. The effects of obstacles on the dynamic structure response were studied by analyzing the internal overpressure, vibration acceleration, and high-speed videos. With the increase of obstacles, the maximum overpressure and vessel vibration increased, and the maximum overpressure and maximum vibration acceleration appeared earlier. The vibration signals had two dominant frequencies, 300-600 Hz and 900-1200 Hz. The low-frequency vibration (300–600 Hz) was induced by acoustic oscillation of the internal pressure. The high-frequency vibration (900–1200 Hz) was a container resonance triggered by the coupling of the flame and the acoustic wave. As VBR increased, the duration of high-frequency oscillations decreased gradually; the increase of obstacles would weaken the high-frequency structural response of the container. The results can guide the design of hydrogen explosion protection and mitigation measures.
在1-m3的长方体容器中进行了氢气-空气预混气体的爆炸排气实验。研究了爆炸放空过程中平行于放空口的障碍物对容器结构响应的影响。通过加速度传感器和压力传感器分别捕获血管壁的内部超压和加速度。利用短时快速傅里叶变换得到了压力和加速度的时频分布。通过分析内部超压、振动加速度和高速视频,研究了障碍物对结构动力响应的影响。随着障碍物的增加,最大超压和容器振动增大,最大超压和最大振动加速度出现的时间提前。振动信号有两个主导频率,300- 600hz和900- 1200hz。低频振动(300 ~ 600 Hz)是由内压的声振荡引起的。高频振动(900 - 1200hz)是由火焰与声波耦合引发的容器共振。随着VBR的增大,高频振荡持续时间逐渐减小;障碍物的增加会减弱容器的高频结构响应。研究结果可以指导氢气防爆和减灾措施的设计。
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引用次数: 0
Interaction effect of building construction accident attributes based on complex network 基于复杂网络的建筑施工事故属性交互效应
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12556
Dongqiang Cao, Lianping Cheng
This paper aims to effectively utilize data related to building construction accidents by delving deeply into the correlations between key causes and accident attributes. Firstly, the authors gathered 1134 accident investigation reports and employed the “5W1H” analysis method to extract six types of accident attributes: time, location, cause category, activity, building type, and accident type. Subsequently, a word cloud map was employed to identify the primary direct causes, and the correlation characteristics among the four cause categories were analyzed. Finally, a heterogeneous correlation network of building construction accident attributes was constructed using Gephi software. Topological parameters were introduced to analyze the relationships among the six accident attributes. The results indicate that a complex network can effectively analyze the interplay among various construction accident attributes, thus revealing the correlation laws and accident characteristics between various accident attributes. The set of key nodes is represented as {F1, F2, B2, B17, F3, B4, B16, B5, F4, B15, D20}. Thirteen highly correlated sets of accident attributes were identified, highlighting the need for collaborative accident prevention strategies. These findings have the potential to visually present accident knowledge, offering innovative insights for the analysis of building construction accidents.
本文旨在通过深入研究建筑施工事故关键原因与事故属性之间的相关性,有效地利用建筑施工事故相关数据。首先,作者收集了1134份事故调查报告,采用“5W1H”分析方法提取了6类事故属性:时间、地点、原因类别、活动、建筑类型、事故类型。随后,采用词云图识别主要直接原因,并分析四类原因之间的相关特征。最后,利用Gephi软件构建了建筑施工事故属性的异构关联网络。引入拓扑参数分析6个事故属性之间的关系。结果表明,复杂网络可以有效地分析各种建筑事故属性之间的相互作用,从而揭示各种事故属性之间的关联规律和事故特征。关键节点集合表示为{F1, F2, B2, B17, F3, B4, B16, B5, F4, B15, D20}。确定了13组高度相关的事故属性,突出了协作事故预防策略的必要性。这些发现有可能直观地呈现事故知识,为建筑施工事故的分析提供创新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic simulation-based quantitative hazard and operability process hazard analysis for a hydrocracking unit 基于动态仿真的加氢裂化装置定量危害与可操作性过程危害分析
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12548
Jialin Yi, Haiyan Wang, Jiguo Zhang
A hydrocracking unit operates at high temperature, high pressure, and near hydrogen, which can be susceptible to fire and explosions accidents due to equipment failure. Therefore, it is essential to identify and analyze the risk factors. The dynamic simulation-based quantitative hazard and operability (HAZOP) study can effectively and purposefully quantify deviations and consequences as well as reduce the redundancy of safety analysis results. Furthermore, the time parameter is introduced through dynamic simulation, which reflects more realistically the dynamic characteristics of the system in the event of a fault. In this paper, we take the process flow of the absorbing-stabilizing system of an actual hydrocracking unit in a refining company as an example and carry out steady-state and dynamic simulations for the deviations of pressure, temperature, and liquid level with the help of Aspen Plus V11 and Aspen Plus Dynamics V11 software to complete the dynamic simulation-based quantitative HAZOP analysis.
加氢裂化装置在高温、高压和靠近氢气的环境中运行,由于设备故障容易发生火灾和爆炸事故。因此,识别和分析风险因素至关重要。基于动态仿真的定量危害和可操作性(HAZOP)研究可以有效、有目的地量化偏差和后果,减少安全分析结果的冗余。通过动态仿真引入时间参数,更真实地反映系统发生故障时的动态特性。本文以某炼油公司实际加氢裂化装置吸稳系统工艺流程为例,借助Aspen Plus V11和Aspen Plus Dynamics V11软件对压力、温度、液位偏差进行稳态和动态模拟,完成基于动态模拟的定量HAZOP分析。
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引用次数: 0
Evaporation of anhydrous ammonia from small concrete coupons and implications regarding evaporation from a large accidental spill on concrete 无水氨在小混凝土板上的蒸发及其对混凝土大意外泄漏蒸发的影响
IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12551
Eric R. Languirand, Cecilia H. Phung, Steven R. Hanna, Kathy L. Crouse
Anhydrous ammonia is transported via ship, rail, and road everyday in the United States as a refrigerated liquid at ambient pressure. As a result, unintential release of a large amount of anhydrous ammonia could result from an accident during transportation. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the evaporation of anhydrous ammonia from porous media. In our investigation, laboratory-scale concrete coupons were used as a surrogate for a larger concrete pad that could be present in an event involving an unintentional release of liquid anhydrous ammonia. Concrete coupons sized 5 cm × 5 cm × 1.9 cm were saturated in liquid anhydrous ammonia, and measurements of the subsequent evaporation from the coupons were made in an environmental chamber. The ambient air temperature within the chamber varied from 5 to 45°C, and the relative humidity varied from 5% to 75%. Mass-difference calculation and Berthelot's reaction were used to determine the average evaporation rate from a concrete coupon across all trials, which was found to be 6.5 ± 1.9 mg/s. To validate these evaporation rates, the remaining ammonia in the concrete coupon was measured for each trial. We found that the time-integrated calculated evaporation rates correlated well with the total mass of ammonia that was lost from the coupons. In addition, it was found that ambient air temperature and relative humidity had little influence on anhydrous ammonia evaporation from the concrete coupons.
在美国,无水氨每天都以常温下的冷冻液体的形式通过船舶、铁路和公路运输。因此,在运输过程中意外释放大量无水氨可能会导致事故。本文的目的是为了更好地理解无水氨从多孔介质中的蒸发。在我们的调查中,实验室规模的混凝土券被用作更大的混凝土垫的替代品,可能存在于涉及无意中释放液体无水氨的事件中。尺寸为5 cm × 5 cm × 1.9 cm的混凝土薄片在液体无水氨中饱和,并在环境室中测量薄片随后的蒸发。试验室内环境温度为5 ~ 45℃,相对湿度为5% ~ 75%。质量差计算和贝特洛反应用于确定所有试验中混凝土片的平均蒸发速率,发现其为6.5±1.9 mg/s。为了验证这些蒸发速率,在每次试验中测量混凝土中剩余的氨。我们发现,时间积分计算的蒸发速率与从优惠券中损失的氨总质量具有良好的相关性。此外,环境空气温度和相对湿度对混凝土板无水氨蒸发影响不大。
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引用次数: 0
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4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12381
Process Safety ProgressVolume 42, Issue 4 ISSUE INFORMATIONFree Access Info for Authors First published: 11 November 2023 https://doi.org/10.1002/prs.12381AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume42, Issue4December 2023 RelatedInformation
过程安全进展第42卷,第4期问题信息作者免费访问信息首次发布:2023年11月11日https://doi.org/10.1002/prs.12381AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare给予accessShare全文accessShare全文accessShare请查看我们的使用条款和条件,并勾选下面的复选框共享文章的全文版本。我已经阅读并接受了Wiley在线图书馆使用共享链接的条款和条件,请使用下面的链接与您的朋友和同事分享本文的全文版本。学习更多的知识。复制URL共享链接共享一个emailfacebooktwitterlinkedinreddit微信本文无摘要第42卷,第4期2023年12月相关信息
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引用次数: 0
Fate and transport analysis of a Dowtherm–A chemical release event Dowtherm-A化学物质释放事件的命运和运输分析
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12552
Kotaiba Abugazleh, Hashim Ali, Kwangkook Jeong, Mohammad Abutayeh
Abstract A hypothetical chemical release of Dowtherm–A into the environment was simulated using a chemodynamics code. The chemical release was assumed to come from a concentrating solar power plant adjacent to Lake Tahoe. Dowtherm–A is viscous water‐insoluble nonvolatile oil found mostly in liquid form at standard temperature and pressure; however, trace amounts slowly diffuse into the three environmental phases: air, water, and soil. It is a commercial eutectic binary mixture of diphenyl oxide and biphenyl—both are toxic and flammable. Therminol VP–1 is another commercial heat transfer oil made by Eastman that is essentially the same oil as Dowtherm–A made by Dow: same constituents at equal proportions. Therefore, the results reported in this study apply to both fluids. Solar thermal power generation represents a clean source of energy that almost uses no fossil fuels and thus does not emit any greenhouse gases. However, the oil employed in those solar thermal power plants is dangerous and should be carefully handled to avoid leakage.
使用化学动力学代码模拟了Dowtherm-A在环境中的化学释放。据推测,化学物质的释放来自太浩湖附近的一个集中太阳能发电厂。Dowtherm-A是一种粘性水不溶性非挥发性油,在标准温度和压力下以液体形式存在;然而,微量会慢慢扩散到三个环境阶段:空气、水和土壤。它是氧化二苯和联苯的商业共晶二元混合物,两者都是有毒和易燃的。Therminol VP-1是伊士曼公司生产的另一种商业导热油,本质上与陶氏公司生产的Dowtherm-A相同:成分相同,比例相同。因此,本研究报告的结果适用于这两种流体。太阳能热发电是一种清洁能源,几乎不使用化石燃料,因此不排放任何温室气体。然而,这些太阳能热发电厂使用的油是危险的,应该小心处理,以避免泄漏。
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引用次数: 0
Boiling combustion behaviors and heat feedback of pool fire of diesel fuel–water emulsification 柴油-水乳化池火沸腾燃烧行为及热反馈
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12554
Shenlin Yang, Fang Pu, Licong Zhang, Manhou Li
Abstract In the process of submarine oil exploitation and crude oil shipping, the offshore oil leakage accidents occur frequently. In the process of oil spill weathering on the sea, the oil is potentially mixed with water to form oil–water emulsification. The in situ burning is a low‐pollution and high‐efficiency method to eliminate the spilled oil. Meanwhile, as an alternative fuel, the emulsified diesel fuel has the advantage of energy saving and emission reduction. The combustion behaviors of pool fire of diesel fuel–water emulsifications are experimentally studied using three circular fuel reservoirs (10, 15, 20 cm) and five mass proportions of water (0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%). The unsteady combustion process of emulsified diesel fuel is appreciated based on combustion phenomenon, mass burning rate, and flame length. The effects of pool diameter, ratio of water content, and initial fuel thickness on burning rate and flame length are revealed. The primary heat transfer mode in controlling the combustion behavior is explored according to the coupling factors of physical boundary of fuel reservoir, flame, and wall temperatures. This work is of great significance for understanding the combustion behavior of oil spill on the sea and optimizing the removal scheme of oil spill pollutants.
摘要在海底石油开采和原油运输过程中,海上石油泄漏事故时有发生。溢油在海上风化过程中,有可能与水混合形成油水乳化。就地燃烧是一种低污染、高效的消除溢油的方法。同时,乳化柴油作为一种替代燃料,具有节能减排的优点。采用3个圆形燃料罐(10、15、20 cm)和5种水的质量比(0%、5%、10%、15%、20%)对柴油-水乳化池火的燃烧行为进行了实验研究。从燃烧现象、质量燃烧速率和火焰长度等方面对乳化柴油的不稳定燃烧过程进行了评价。揭示了池直径、水含量比和初始燃料厚度对燃烧速度和火焰长度的影响。根据燃料库物理边界、火焰和壁面温度的耦合因素,探讨了控制燃烧行为的初级换热模式。这项工作对于了解海上溢油的燃烧行为,优化溢油污染物的清除方案具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial—Special edition—Papers from the Latin American Congresses on Process Safety 2021 and 2022 社论-特别版-拉丁美洲过程安全大会2021年和2022年的论文
4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1002/prs.12544
Carmen H. Osorio Amado, Nestor Sposito
The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study.
作者声明无利益冲突。数据共享不适用于本文,因为本研究没有创建或分析新的数据。
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引用次数: 0
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Process Safety Progress
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