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2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA)最新文献

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Architectures for novel energy infrastructures: Multi-agent based coordination patterns 新型能源基础设施的架构:基于多智能体的协调模式
R. Kamphuis, K. Kok, C. Warmer, M. Hommelberg
Due to the increased proportion of small renewable energy sources in a distributed setting (DG-RES), active control of small distributed energy producing and consuming systems will play an important role in future electricity grids [1]. These distributed energy resources have production patterns, which are either partially stochastic (e.g. wind, solar cells) or are coupled to the primary user process (e.g. co-generation of heat and electricity). Furthermore, on the demand-side, and increasingly on the electricity storage side, opportunities exist for actively serving stability applications in the grid by real-time supply/demand coordination. In the future, an information and communication layer for grid coordination could serve a portfolio of ICT-applications on timescales running from seconds to hours. To get a grip on these (r)evolutionary developments, possibly toppling the electricity grid, in this paper, architecture requirements for future high proportion DG-RES electricity grids are collected from a Power Electronics System point of view as well as from an ICT point of view using an inventory of business models in the power grid that focus on coordination of multiple small-scale DG-RES resources. Modeled from an ICT point-of-view, these give rise to architectures for applications that can successively be implemented in hardware and software as active components in the distribution grid. A number of possible grid control strategy coordination patterns (GCPs), which are defined in a generic, reusable manner, can be seen to emerge. GCPs, connected and intertwined to one another on several layers (physical, commercial) of the grid, together, can provide the framework for coordination in the overall intelligent grid. Bottom-up approaches of implementing coordination in future active grids appear to be the method of choice to use in implementing the GCPs. Software agents [2], [3] coordinating primary processes using market algorithms, as implemented in the PowerMatcher approach [3]-[4], appear to be very suited for this.
由于小型可再生能源在分布式环境(DG-RES)中的比例增加,对小型分布式能源生产和消费系统的主动控制将在未来电网中发挥重要作用[1]。这些分布式能源具有生产模式,这些模式要么是部分随机的(例如风能、太阳能电池),要么是与主要用户过程耦合的(例如热电联产)。此外,在需求侧,以及越来越多的电力存储侧,存在通过实时供需协调积极服务于电网稳定性应用的机会。未来,用于网格协调的信息和通信层可以在从几秒到几小时的时间尺度上为一系列ict应用程序提供服务。为了掌握这些可能颠覆电网的进化发展,本文从电力电子系统的角度和ICT的角度收集了未来高比例DG-RES电网的架构需求,并使用了电网中关注多个小规模DG-RES资源协调的商业模型清单。从ICT的角度建模,这些产生了应用程序的体系结构,这些应用程序可以作为配电网中的活动组件在硬件和软件中依次实现。可以看到出现了许多可能的网格控制策略协调模式(gcp),它们以通用的、可重用的方式定义。gcp在网格的几个层(物理层和商业层)上相互连接和交织在一起,可以为整个智能网格的协调提供框架。在未来主动网格中实施协调的自下而上方法似乎是实施gcp的首选方法。软件代理[2],[3]使用市场算法协调主要进程,在PowerMatcher方法[3]-[4]中实现,似乎非常适合于此。
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引用次数: 12
Coherence of institutions and technology in the innovation of electricity networks 电力网络创新中制度和技术的一致性
M. Jonker
Advantages of liberalizing network sectors such as telecom, railway and electricity are said to be found in lower consumer prices, and more innovation in the sector. We assess the factors to innovation in the Dutch electricity sector with multiple interviews and a survey. One of the main conclusions is that in the institutional realm many factors are hampering and stimulating innovation. There is a lack of coherence of some current institutions and technological innovation. In order to improve innovation some important institutions should be altered or adapted.
据称,电信、铁路和电力等网络行业自由化的优势在于更低的消费价格和更多的行业创新。我们通过多次访谈和调查来评估荷兰电力部门的创新因素。其中一个主要结论是,在制度领域有许多因素在阻碍和刺激创新。目前的一些制度和技术创新缺乏连贯性。为了促进创新,应该改变或调整一些重要的制度。
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引用次数: 2
Natural gas industry in Iran 伊朗的天然气工业
Hedayat Omidvar
AT the end of March 2007, the remaining quantity of recoverable gas reserves in the country has been in excess of 28.3 trillion cubic meters that is the second gas rich country in the word. While the geological studies in certain geographical regions of the country have not been thoroughly conducted yet. it is likely to explore further reserves of gas in the future. Therefore a thorough and explicit planning knowledge is essential for utilization of this energy carrier. Iran is one of the largest gas rich countries in the world that production potentials exceed gas injection and domestic consumption requirements. Gas can be utilized as feedstock for petrochemical and refining products or exported through pipelines or as LNG. By injecting gas into oil reservoirs while increasing the oil recovery ratio of oil fields, gas storage from production of shared reservoirs into non - shared reservoirs is as well accomplished. Gas consumption in domestic markets and its substitution with oil products in addition to environmental benefits, will also result into the optimum consumption of these products and relieve the government from the heavy burden of existing subsidies and the heavy expenditures of importing these products into the country. To supply gas requirements, proper operation and appropriate production of shared reservoirs such as south pars with the objective of securing gas requirements and providing balance of supply and demand as well as utilization of maximum share in these reservoirs are other essentials towards development of this vital industry. Several energy experts and Iran's economy analysts believe that further expansion and utilization of natural gas is an essential element for sustainable development and this energy carrier is considered the superior fuel of the 21 century. According to reliable estimations, natural gas in regard to its intrinsic characteristics and especially environmental suitability is one of the energy carriers that will attain the highest growth rate among other energy carriers with in the next two decades which itself is indicative for consumption growth of this substance in the global basket of energy consumption. The need of the world's countries for energy sources along the enormous natural gas reserves in the country opens broad economical, political dialogue scene towards us and contributes an outstanding strategic significance to our gas resources. Iran, regard to her geographical and political strategic situation. Can play a leading role in global gas supply and act as a bridge between the enormous Middle Eastern gas reserves with major gas consumption and demand centers in Europe and Asia Planning and policy making regarding the development of gas industry, it is essential to manage all aspects of gas from exploration and production to consumption, injection and exports and etc. is essential to be administered by the national Iranian gas company so that prepared plans could be implemented without bein
截至2007年3月底,该国剩余的可采天然气储量已超过28.3万亿立方米,是世界上天然气储量第二丰富的国家。而我国某些地理区域的地质研究尚未彻底进行。未来可能会进一步勘探天然气储量。因此,全面而明确的规划知识对于利用这种能源载体至关重要。伊朗是世界上最大的天然气储量丰富的国家之一,其生产潜力超过了天然气注入和国内消费需求。天然气可以用作石化和炼油产品的原料,也可以通过管道或作为液化天然气出口。通过在提高油田采收率的同时向油藏注气,实现了共有储层产气向非共有储层的储气。除了环境效益外,国内市场的天然气消费和石油产品的替代也将导致这些产品的最佳消费,并减轻政府现有补贴的沉重负担和将这些产品进口到国内的沉重支出。为了满足天然气需求,south pars等共用储气库的妥善运作和适当生产,以确保天然气需求,实现供需平衡,并最大限度地利用这些储气库的份额,是发展这一重要行业的另一个要素。几位能源专家和伊朗经济分析人士认为,进一步扩大和利用天然气是可持续发展的重要因素,这种能源载体被认为是21世纪的优越燃料。根据可靠的估计,天然气由于其固有的特性,特别是环境适宜性,是未来20年将在其他能源载体中实现最高增长率的能源载体之一,这本身就预示着这种物质在全球一篮子能源消费中的消费增长。世界各国对能源的需求沿着我国巨大的天然气储量为我们打开了广阔的经济、政治对话的舞台,并对我国的天然气资源具有突出的战略意义。考虑到伊朗的地理和政治战略形势。能够在全球天然气供应中发挥主导作用,并在巨大的中东天然气储量与欧洲和亚洲主要天然气消费和需求中心之间发挥桥梁作用。在天然气工业发展的规划和政策制定方面,必须对天然气从勘探、生产到消费的各个方面进行管理。注入和出口等都必须由伊朗国家天然气公司管理,以便可以执行准备好的计划,而不会出现缺乏协调、平行活动和组织困难等问题。伊朗伊斯兰共和国拥有大量的天然气储备,在实现其储量的适当配置方面,也应提供吸收世界上最新的技术资本的条件,以补偿其远离世界天然气市场。21世纪是天然气的世纪,通过采取一项有组织的战略,我国可能以一种特殊的方式,为人民和国家经济以及该地区和世界发挥最自然和最具影响力的作用。全球对碳氢化合物能源及相关产业的需求日益增长,这是我国的一个黄金机遇。总之,值得一提的是,在未来10年内,伊朗需要对其天然气工业进行超过500亿美元的资本投资,以便能够通过与工业交易实现诸如国内需求供应/为油井提供必要的天然气/增加气藏/附加值等目标,并实现在区域和全球天然气市场的适当配置。
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引用次数: 2
Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Which explanations can be given? 大型交通基础设施项目的成本超支:可以给出哪些解释?
C. Cantarelli, B. Flyvbjerg, B. van Wee, E. Molin
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs and benefits, which results in large cost overruns and benefit shortfalls that often threaten the project viability. This paper explores the explanations for cost overruns that have been presented in previous studies, and whether these explanations are theoretically embedded. Two categories of explanations for cost overruns are distinguished: political explanations and non-political explanations. This paper also investigates whether there are theories that have not yet been included in the literature on cost overruns that can contribute to the understanding of cost overruns. For political explanations agency theory is considered the most interesting and an eclectic theory is considered possible as well. Non-political explanations are diverse in character, therefore a range of different theories (including rational choice theory and prospect theory), dependent on the kind of explanation is considered more appropriate than one all-embracing theory.
管理大型交通基础设施项目是困难的,因为经常有关于成本和效益的错误信息,这导致大量的成本超支和效益不足,往往威胁到项目的可行性。本文探讨了在以往的研究中提出的成本超支的解释,以及这些解释是否在理论上是嵌入的。对成本超支的解释分为两类:政治解释和非政治解释。本文还调查了是否存在尚未包含在成本超支文献中的理论,这些理论有助于理解成本超支。对于政治解释,代理理论被认为是最有趣的,折衷理论也被认为是可能的。非政治性的解释在性质上是多种多样的,因此,根据解释的种类,一系列不同的理论(包括理性选择理论和前景理论)被认为比一个包罗万象的理论更合适。
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引用次数: 19
Evaluating the performance of an advanced train dispatching system 先进列车调度系统的性能评价
A. D’Ariano, F. Corman, I. Hansen
In the last years, real-time railway traffic optimization experienced an increasing interest due to the expected growth of traffic and the limited possibilities of enhancing the infrastructure, which ask for a more efficient use of resources and the application of more advanced decision support tools. This paper presents a computerized train dispatching system, called ROMA (Railway traffic Optimization by Means of Alternative graphs), for supporting railway traffic controllers during operations. Innovative scheduling and rerouting algorithms have been developed in order to globally optimize disturbed railway traffic conditions. ROMA can anticipate the evolution of traffic, including the propagation of delays in a regional railway network, and can estimate the effects of different dispatching measures during a period of about 15 minutes ahead. Therefore, ROMA would enable traffic controllers to frequently perform incremental changes to the actual timetable to accommodate changes in traffic patterns due to disturbances, such as train delays and blocked tracks. An extensive computational study is carried out, based on a dispatching area of the Dutch railway network, to show the high potential of our train dispatching system as a support tool to improve punctuality.
在过去的几年里,由于交通的预期增长和增强基础设施的有限可能性,实时铁路交通优化经历了越来越多的兴趣,这要求更有效地利用资源和应用更先进的决策支持工具。本文提出了一种计算机化的列车调度系统,称为ROMA(铁路交通优化方法替代图),用于在运行期间支持铁路交通控制员。为了全局优化受干扰的铁路交通状况,人们开发了创新的调度和改道算法。ROMA可以预测交通的演变,包括区域铁路网的延误传播,并可以估计在大约15分钟内不同调度措施的影响。因此,ROMA将使交通管制员能够经常对实际时间表进行渐进式更改,以适应由于火车延误和轨道堵塞等干扰而导致的交通模式的变化。以荷兰铁路网络的调度区域为基础进行了广泛的计算研究,以显示我们的火车调度系统作为提高准点率的支持工具的巨大潜力。
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引用次数: 3
Scenario analysis and the adaptive approach: Superfluous or underused in transport infrastructure planning? 情景分析和适应性方法:交通基础设施规划是多余的还是未充分利用的?
O. van de Riet, O. Aazami, C. van Rhee
Both scenario analysis and the adaptive approach are rarely used in transport infrastructure planning, while there seems to be a clear value in using them (given the massive uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides, and owing to the fact that infrastructure is typically a `slow and inert' component of the transport system). To assess why these techniques are rarely used, the authors carried out a study to determine whether these analytical approaches are (1) superfluous (that is, there is no great need for them in the policymaking sector) or (2) underused (that is, there appears to be a need for the approaches among policymakers, but the approaches are nevertheless not used), and why. The study focused on the Netherlands, a country where transport infrastructure investments (including their effectiveness and efficiency) have been high on the political agenda for decades.
情景分析和适应性方法在交通基础设施规划中很少使用,而使用它们似乎有明显的价值(考虑到供需双方的巨大不确定性,以及由于基础设施通常是交通系统中“缓慢而惰性”的组成部分)。为了评估为什么这些技术很少被使用,作者进行了一项研究,以确定这些分析方法是(1)多余的(也就是说,政策制定部门对它们没有很大的需求)还是(2)未充分利用(也就是说,政策制定者似乎需要这些方法,但这些方法却没有被使用),以及为什么。这项研究的重点是荷兰,在这个国家,交通基础设施投资(包括其有效性和效率)几十年来一直是政治议程上的重要议题。
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引用次数: 7
Cooperation for aggregating complex electric power networks to ensure system observability 为保证系统的可观测性,聚合复杂电网的合作
Usman A. Khan, Marija Ilic, Jose M. F. Moura
In this paper, we study the cooperative observability conditions for the local observers formulated on large-scale power systems. A complex large-scale power system model can be considered as a union of several low-dimensional sub-systems where local observers are to implemented. Even if the large-scale system is observable, local observers formulated on such sub-systems may be unstable if the resulting local sub-systems are un-observable. The aggregated effect of the sub-systems, although, may lead to observability. Under certain assumptions, we show that the un-observable local sub-systems can lead to observability by allowing appropriate cooperation among the local observers. In particular, the local error covariances of the local observers can be assimilated such that they preserve a certain (approximated) structure of the global error covariance. This results into stable local observers for un-observable, but, cooperating sub-systems. We provide simulations to assert the findings in the paper.
本文研究了大型电力系统中局部观测器的合作可观测性条件。一个复杂的大型电力系统模型可以看作是几个低维子系统的联合,其中局部观测器将被实现。即使大系统是可观测的,如果得到的局部子系统是不可观测的,那么在这些子系统上建立的局部观察者也可能是不稳定的。然而,子系统的聚合效应可能导致可观察性。在一定的假设下,我们证明了通过允许局部观察者之间的适当合作,不可观测的局部子系统可以导致可观测。特别是,局部观测器的局部误差协方差可以被同化,从而使它们保持一定的(近似的)全局误差协方差结构。这使得不可观测但相互合作的子系统具有稳定的局部观察者。我们提供了模拟来验证本文的发现。
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引用次数: 17
Valuation of flexibility for public investments 评估公共投资的灵活性
S. Schenk
Infrastructure projects are typically large, irreversible investments that deal with a rapidly changing environment. Flexibility could therefore be valuable for these projects. Valuation of flexibility is however not yet a part of standard evaluation toolkits. This paper reviews theoretical concepts, methodological issues and practical applications.
基础设施项目通常是大型的、不可逆转的投资,需要应对快速变化的环境。因此,灵活性对于这些项目来说是有价值的。然而,灵活性的评估还不是标准评估工具包的一部分。本文综述了理论概念、方法问题和实际应用。
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引用次数: 2
Modelling infrastructure systems: A hybrid approach for system transition 基础设施系统建模:系统转换的混合方法
C. Meza, G. Dijkema
The depletion of energy resources, the quest for security-of-supply and the need to mitigate climate change may require or invoke for a transition of energy infrastructures. We conjecture that the phenomenon of transitions is not sufficiently understood to merit high expectations from transition management since energy infrastructures are complex, large scale socio-technical systems. Transitions are not only multi-layered phenomena; they include feedback loops within and across layers. We have combined four complementary approaches - Socio-technical regimes, social theory, Institutional Economics and Actor-Network theory - to unravel the phenomenon of transitions and present a functional specification of a transition modelling framework. We suggest the development of a hybrid modelling approach to enable the analysis of transitions of socio-technical systems, to provide support to decision-makers involved in shaping their transition and to explore the feasibility of transition management. System dynamics and agent-based modelling are suitable modelling paradigms using energy infrastructures as an example, as a first step towards enabling transition management.
能源资源的枯竭、对供应安全的追求以及减缓气候变化的需要可能要求或引发能源基础设施的转型。我们推测,由于能源基础设施是复杂的、大规模的社会技术系统,因此对转型现象的理解不够充分,不足以获得转型管理的高期望。过渡不仅是多层现象;它们包括层内和层间的反馈循环。我们结合了四种互补的方法——社会技术制度、社会理论、制度经济学和行动者网络理论——来揭示转型现象,并提出了转型建模框架的功能规范。我们建议开发一种混合建模方法,以分析社会技术系统的转型,为参与塑造转型的决策者提供支持,并探索转型管理的可行性。系统动力学和基于代理的建模是合适的建模范例,以能源基础设施为例,作为实现过渡管理的第一步。
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引用次数: 7
Regulatory issues in the water sector: Which institutions matter most? 水务部门的监管问题:哪些机构最重要?
C. Ménard
Water provision has been and remains highly regulated because it is a "critical infrastructure" that requires tight coordination of its core transactions in order to maintain technical integrity as well as economic coherence in the system. If one looks at the history of developed countries, they all have had their water and sewerage systems developed mostly by public bureaus or, to a lesser degree, by private operators tightly supervised by public authorities. It is also noticeable that Public-Private Participation has become fashionable less because of failures in the running of water and sewerage systems in developed countries than because of constraints in public finances, particularly in developing countries. This is not to deny flaws and failures in many SOEs, but to temper their significance.The paper argues that we need looking at intermediate, "micro-institutions" that bridge the gap between institutional environment and organizational arrangements. Of course, these problems by far exceed the urban water sector.
供水一直受到并且仍然受到高度管制,因为它是一项“关键基础设施”,需要对其核心交易进行密切协调,以保持系统的技术完整性和经济一致性。如果回顾一下发达国家的历史,就会发现它们的供水和污水处理系统大多是由公共部门开发的,或者在较小程度上是由公共当局严密监督的私人运营商开发的。同样值得注意的是,公私参与之所以流行,与其说是因为发达国家供水和污水处理系统的运行失败,不如说是因为公共财政的限制,特别是在发展中国家。这并不是要否认许多国有企业的缺陷和失败,而是要淡化它们的重要性。本文认为,我们需要关注能够弥合制度环境和组织安排之间差距的中间“微观制度”。当然,这些问题远远超出了城市供水部门。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA)
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