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Data integrity in an online world: Demonstration of multimodal bot screening tools and considerations for preserving data integrity in two online social and behavioral research studies with marginalized populations. 网络世界的数据完整性:在两项针对边缘化人群的在线社会和行为研究中,展示多模式僵尸筛选工具并考虑维护数据完整性。
IF 7 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000696
Arryn A Guy,Matthew J Murphy,David G Zelaya,Christopher W Kahler,Shufang Sun
Internet-based studies are widely used in social and behavioral health research, yet bots and fraud from "survey farming" bring significant threats to data integrity. For research centering marginalized communities, data integrity is an ethical imperative, as fraudulent data at a minimum poses a threat to scientific integrity, and worse could even promulgate false, negative stereotypes about the population of interest. Using data from two online surveys of sexual and gender minority populations (young men who have sex with men and transgender women of color), we (a) demonstrate the use of online survey techniques to identify and mitigate internet-based fraud, (b) differentiate techniques for and identify two different types of "survey farming" (i.e., bots and false responders), and (c) demonstrate the consequences of those distinct types of fraud on sample characteristics and statistical inferences, if fraud goes unaddressed. We provide practical recommendations for internet-based studies in psychological, social, and behavioral health research to ensure data integrity and discuss implications for future research testing data integrity techniques. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
基于互联网的研究被广泛应用于社会和行为健康研究中,然而 "调查农业 "中的机器人和欺诈行为对数据完整性造成了严重威胁。对于以边缘化群体为中心的研究来说,数据完整性是道德上的当务之急,因为欺诈性数据至少会对科学诚信构成威胁,更有甚者甚至会对相关人群造成错误、负面的刻板印象。利用对性和性别少数群体(男男性行为者和有色人种变性女性)进行的两项在线调查的数据,我们(a)展示了如何使用在线调查技术来识别和减少基于互联网的欺诈行为,(b)区分并识别了两种不同类型的 "调查农业"(即机器人和虚假应答者),以及(c)展示了如果不处理欺诈行为,这些不同类型的欺诈行为会对样本特征和统计推断产生的后果。我们为基于互联网的心理、社会和行为健康研究提供了切实可行的建议,以确保数据的完整性,并讨论了测试数据完整性技术的未来研究的意义。(PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Trying to outrun causality with machine learning: Limitations of model explainability techniques for exploratory research. 试图用机器学习超越因果关系:探索性研究中模型可解释性技术的局限性。
IF 7 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000699
Matthew J Vowels
Machine learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means for psychologists to "explain" or interrogate a model in order to gain an understanding of a phenomenon of interest. Researchers concerned with imposing overly restrictive functional form (e.g., as would be the case in a linear regression) may be motivated to use machine learning algorithms in conjunction with explainability techniques, as part of exploratory research, with the goal of identifying important variables that are associated with/predictive of an outcome of interest. However, and as we demonstrate, machine learning algorithms are highly sensitive to the underlying causal structure in the data. The consequences of this are that predictors which are deemed by the explainability technique to be unrelated/unimportant/unpredictive, may actually be highly associated with the outcome. Rather than this being a limitation of explainability techniques per se, we show that it is rather a consequence of the mathematical implications of regression, and the interaction of these implications with the associated conditional independencies of the underlying causal structure. We provide some alternative recommendations for psychologists wanting to explore the data for important variables. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
机器学习可解释性技术已被提出作为心理学家 "解释 "或询问模型的一种手段,以获得对相关现象的理解。研究人员可能会担心强加过于严格的函数形式(如线性回归中的函数形式),因此会将机器学习算法与可解释性技术结合起来使用,作为探索性研究的一部分,目的是找出与感兴趣的结果相关/可预测结果的重要变量。然而,正如我们所展示的,机器学习算法对数据中的潜在因果结构非常敏感。其结果是,可解释性技术认为不相关/不重要/不可预测的预测因子,实际上可能与结果高度相关。与其说这是可解释性技术本身的局限性,不如说是回归的数学含义以及这些含义与基本因果结构的相关条件独立性相互作用的结果。我们为希望探索重要变量数据的心理学家提供了一些替代建议。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Sequential analysis of variance: Increasing efficiency of hypothesis testing. 序列方差分析:提高假设检验的效率
IF 7 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000677
Meike Steinhilber,Martin Schnuerch,Anna-Lena Schubert
Researchers commonly use analysis of variance (ANOVA) to statistically test results of factorial designs. Performing an a priori power analysis is crucial to ensure that the ANOVA is sufficiently powered, however, it often poses a challenge and can result in large sample sizes, especially if the expected effect size is small. Due to the high prevalence of small effect sizes in psychology, studies are frequently underpowered as it is often economically unfeasible to gather the necessary sample size for adequate Type-II error control. Here, we present a more efficient alternative to the fixed ANOVA, the so-called sequential ANOVA that we implemented in the R package "sprtt." The sequential ANOVA is based on the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) that uses a likelihood ratio as a test statistic and controls for long-term error rates. SPRTs gather evidence for both the null and the alternative hypothesis and conclude this process when a sufficient amount of evidence has been gathered to accept one of the two hypotheses. Through simulations, we show that the sequential ANOVA is more efficient than the fixed ANOVA and reliably controls long-term error rates. Additionally, robustness analyses revealed that the sequential and fixed ANOVAs exhibit analogous properties when their underlying assumptions are violated. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the sequential ANOVA is an efficient alternative to fixed sample designs for hypothesis testing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
研究人员通常使用方差分析(ANOVA)来统计检验因子设计的结果。进行先验功率分析对于确保方差分析具有足够的功率至关重要,但这往往是一个挑战,可能会导致样本量过大,尤其是在预期效应大小较小的情况下。由于心理学中普遍存在小效应量的情况,因此研究往往动力不足,因为要收集足够的样本量来进行适当的 II 类误差控制,在经济上往往是不可行的。在这里,我们提出了一种比固定方差分析更有效的替代方法,即我们在 R 软件包 "sprtt "中实现的所谓序列方差分析。序列方差分析基于序列概率比检验(SPRT),它使用似然比作为检验统计量,并控制长期误差率。SPRT 为零假设和备择假设收集证据,当收集到足够的证据可以接受两个假设中的一个时,就结束这一过程。通过模拟,我们发现顺序方差分析比固定方差分析更有效,而且能可靠地控制长期错误率。此外,稳健性分析表明,当违反基本假设时,顺序方差分析和固定方差分析表现出类似的特性。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,序列方差分析是固定样本设计假设检验的有效替代方案。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Improving inferential analyses predata and postdata. 改进推理分析的前数据和后数据。
IF 7 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000697
David Trafimow,Tingting Tong,Tonghui Wang,S T Boris Choy,Liqun Hu,Xiangfei Chen,Cong Wang,Ziyuan Wang
The standard statistical procedure for researchers comprises a two-step process. Before data collection, researchers perform power analyses, and after data collection, they perform significance tests. Many have proffered arguments that significance tests are unsound, but that issue will not be rehashed here. It is sufficient that even for aficionados, there is the usual disclaimer that null hypothesis significance tests provide extremely limited information, thereby rendering them vulnerable to misuse. There is a much better postdata option that provides a higher grade of useful information. Based on work by Trafimow and his colleagues (for a review, see Trafimow, 2023a), it is possible to estimate probabilities of being better off or worse off, by varying degrees, depending on whether one gets the treatment or not. In turn, if the postdata goal switches from significance testing to a concern with probabilistic advantages or disadvantages, an implication is that the predata goal ought to switch accordingly. The a priori procedure, with its focus on parameter estimation, should replace conventional power analysis as a predata procedure. Therefore, the new two-step procedure should be the a priori procedure predata and estimations of probabilities of being better off, or worse off, to varying degrees, postdata. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
研究人员的标准统计程序包括两个步骤。在收集数据之前,研究人员会进行功率分析;在收集数据之后,他们会进行显著性检验。很多人都提出了显著性检验不可靠的论点,在此不再赘述。即使对研究爱好者来说,通常也会有这样的免责声明:零假设显著性检验提供的信息极其有限,因此容易被滥用。还有一个更好的后数据选项,可以提供更高级别的有用信息。根据 Trafimow 及其同事的研究(综述见 Trafimow, 2023a),我们可以根据一个人是否接受治疗,估算出不同程度的更好或更差的概率。反过来,如果后数据目标从显著性检验转向对概率优势或劣势的关注,那么就意味着前数据目标也应相应转换。以参数估计为重点的先验程序应取代传统的功率分析,成为数据前程序。因此,新的两步程序应该是先验程序的前数据和对不同程度的更好或更差概率的估计,即后数据。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Consistency of Bayes factor estimates in Bayesian analysis of variance. 贝叶斯方差分析中贝叶斯因子估计值的一致性。
IF 7 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1037/met0000703
Roland Pfister
Factorial designs lend themselves to a variety of analyses with Bayesian methodology. The de facto standard is Bayesian analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Monte Carlo integration. Alternative, and readily available methods, are Bayesian ANOVA with Laplace approximation as well as Bayesian t tests for individual effects. This simulation study compared the three approaches regarding ordinal and metric agreement of the resulting Bayes factors for a 2 × 2 mixed design. Simulation results indicate remarkable disagreement of the three methods in certain cases, particularly when effect sizes are small and studies include small sample sizes. Findings further replicate and extend previous observations of substantial variability of ANOVAs with Monte Carlo integration across different runs of one and the same analysis. These observations showcase important limitations of current implementations of Bayesian ANOVA. Researchers should be mindful of these limitations when interpreting corresponding analyses, ideally applying multiple approaches to establish converging results. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
因子设计适合采用贝叶斯方法进行各种分析。事实上的标准是采用蒙特卡罗积分的贝叶斯方差分析(ANOVA)。另一种现成的方法是采用拉普拉斯近似的贝叶斯方差分析以及针对个体效应的贝叶斯 t 检验。本模拟研究比较了这三种方法在 2 × 2 混合设计中得出的贝叶斯因子的顺序和度量一致性。模拟结果表明,在某些情况下,特别是当效应大小较小且研究样本量较小时,三种方法之间存在明显的差异。研究结果进一步复制并扩展了之前的观察结果,即在同一分析的不同运行中,使用蒙特卡洛积分的方差分析存在很大差异。这些观察结果表明了当前贝叶斯方差分析实施的重要局限性。研究人员在解释相应的分析时应注意这些局限性,最好采用多种方法来确定趋同的结果。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling construct change over time amidst potential changes in construct measurement: A longitudinal moderated factor analysis approach. 在构造测量的潜在变化中建立构造随时间变化的模型:纵向调节因子分析方法。
IF 7.6 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1037/met0000685
Siyuan Marco Chen, Daniel J Bauer

In analyzing longitudinal data with growth curve models, a critical assumption is that changes in the observed measures reflect construct changes and not changes in the manifestation of the construct over time. However, growth curve models are often fit to a repeated measure constructed as a sum or mean of scale items, making an implicit assumption of constancy of measurement. This practice risks confounding actual construct change with changes in measurement (i.e., differential item functioning [DIF]), threatening the validity of conclusions. An improved method that avoids such confounding is the second-order growth curve (SGC) model. It specifies a measurement model at each occasion of measurement that can be evaluated for invariance over time. The applicability of the SGC model is hindered by key limitations: (a) the SGC model treats time as continuous when modeling construct growth but as discrete when modeling measurement, reducing interpretability and parsimony; (b) the evaluation of DIF becomes increasingly error-prone given multiple timepoints and groups; (c) DIF associated with continuous covariates is difficult to incorporate. Drawing on moderated nonlinear factor analysis, we propose an alternative approach that provides a parsimonious framework for including many time points and DIF from different types of covariates. We implement this model through Bayesian estimation, allowing for incorporation of regularizing priors to facilitate efficient evaluation of DIF. We demonstrate a two-step workflow of measurement evaluation and growth modeling, with an empirical example examining changes in adolescent delinquency over time. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

在用成长曲线模型分析纵向数据时,一个重要的假设是观察到的测量结果的变化反映了建构的变化,而不是建构的表现随时间的变化。然而,成长曲线模型通常是与作为量表项目总和或平均值构建的重复测量进行拟合,从而隐含了测量恒定性的假设。这种做法有可能将实际的构念变化与测量变化(即差异项目功能 [DIF])相混淆,从而威胁到结论的有效性。避免这种混淆的改进方法是二阶增长曲线(SGC)模型。它在每次测量时都指定了一个测量模型,该模型可以随着时间的推移进行不变性评估。SGC 模型的适用性受到一些主要限制因素的阻碍:(a) SGC 模型在建立建构增长模型时将时间视为连续的,而在建立测量模型时则将时间视为离散的,从而降低了可解释性和解析性;(b) 由于存在多个时间点和多个组别,DIF 的评估变得越来越容易出错;(c) 与连续协变量相关的 DIF 难以纳入。借鉴缓和非线性因子分析,我们提出了一种替代方法,为纳入多个时间点和不同类型协变量的 DIF 提供了一个简洁的框架。我们通过贝叶斯估计实现了这一模型,允许纳入正则化先验,以促进对 DIF 的有效评估。我们以青少年犯罪随时间变化的经验为例,展示了测量评估和增长建模的两步工作流程。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Factorization of person response profiles to identify summative profiles carrying central response patterns. 对人的反应特征进行因式分解,以确定包含中心反应模式的总结性特征。
IF 7.6 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1037/met0000568
Se-Kang Kim

A data matrix, where rows represent persons and columns represent measured subtests, can be viewed as a stack of person profiles, as rows are actually person profiles of observed responses on column subtests. Profile analysis seeks to identify a small number of latent profiles from a large number of person response profiles to identify central response patterns, which are useful for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of individuals across multiple dimensions in domains of interest. Moreover, the latent profiles are mathematically proven to be summative profiles that linearly combine all person response profiles. Since person response profiles are confounded with profile level and response pattern, the level effect must be controlled when they are factorized to identify a latent (or summative) profile that carries the response pattern effect. However, when the level effect is dominant but uncontrolled, only a summative profile carrying the level effect would be considered statistically meaningful according to a traditional metric (e.g., eigenvalue ≥ 1) or parallel analysis results. Nevertheless, the response pattern effect among individuals can provide assessment-relevant insights that are overlooked by conventional analysis; to achieve this, the level effect must be controlled. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to demonstrate how to correctly identify summative profiles containing central response patterns regardless of the centering techniques used on data sets. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

数据矩阵的行代表人,列代表测量的子测试,可以看作是一堆人的特征,因为行实际上是在列子测试中观察到的反应的人的特征。轮廓分析旨在从大量的个人反应轮廓中识别出少量的潜在轮廓,从而确定中心反应模式,这对于评估个人在相关领域多个维度上的优势和劣势非常有用。此外,潜特征在数学上被证明是线性组合所有个人反应特征的总和特征。由于人的反应特征与特征水平和反应模式相混淆,因此在对其进行因子化时,必须控制水平效应,以确定携带反应模式效应的潜在(或求和)特征。然而,当水平效应占主导地位但不受控制时,根据传统指标(如特征值≥ 1)或平行分析结果,只有携带水平效应的求和轮廓才会被认为具有统计意义。然而,个体间的反应模式效应可以提供传统分析所忽略的与评估相关的见解;要实现这一点,必须控制水平效应。因此,本研究的目的是演示如何正确识别包含中心反应模式的终结性概况,而不管数据集上使用的中心化技术如何。(PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
A comprehensive model framework for between-individual differences in longitudinal data. 纵向数据个体间差异的综合模型框架。
IF 7.6 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1037/met0000585
Anja F Ernst, Casper J Albers, Marieke E Timmerman

Across different fields of research, the similarities and differences between various longitudinal models are not always eminently clear due to differences in data structure, application area, and terminology. Here we propose a comprehensive model framework that will allow simple comparisons between longitudinal models, to ease their empirical application and interpretation. At the within-individual level, our model framework accounts for various attributes of longitudinal data, such as growth and decline, cyclical trends, and the dynamic interplay between variables over time. At the between-individual level, our framework contains continuous and categorical latent variables to account for between-individual differences. This framework encompasses several well-known longitudinal models, including multilevel regression models, growth curve models, growth mixture models, vector-autoregressive models, and multilevel vector-autoregressive models. The general model framework is specified and its key characteristics are illustrated using famous longitudinal models as concrete examples. Various longitudinal models are reviewed and it is shown that all these models can be united into our comprehensive model framework. Extensions to the model framework are discussed. Recommendations for selecting and specifying longitudinal models are made for empirical researchers who aim to account for between-individual differences. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

在不同的研究领域,由于数据结构、应用领域和术语的不同,各种纵向模型之间的异同并不总是那么明显。在此,我们提出一个全面的模型框架,以便对纵向模型进行简单的比较,从而简化模型的实证应用和解释。在个体内部层面,我们的模型框架考虑了纵向数据的各种属性,如增长和下降、周期性趋势以及变量之间随时间变化的动态相互作用。在个体间层面,我们的框架包含连续和分类潜变量,以解释个体间的差异。这一框架包含多个著名的纵向模型,包括多层次回归模型、增长曲线模型、增长混合模型、向量自回归模型和多层次向量自回归模型。以著名的纵向模型为具体实例,说明了一般模型框架及其主要特征。综述了各种纵向模型,并表明所有这些模型都可以统一到我们的综合模型框架中。讨论了模型框架的扩展。为旨在考虑个体间差异的实证研究人员提供了选择和指定纵向模型的建议。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved)。
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引用次数: 0
Inclusion Bayes factors for mixed hierarchical diffusion decision models. 混合分层扩散决策模型的包容贝叶斯因子。
IF 7.6 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1037/met0000582
Udo Boehm, Nathan J Evans, Quentin F Gronau, Dora Matzke, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Andrew J Heathcote

Cognitive models provide a substantively meaningful quantitative description of latent cognitive processes. The quantitative formulation of these models supports cumulative theory building and enables strong empirical tests. However, the nonlinearity of these models and pervasive correlations among model parameters pose special challenges when applying cognitive models to data. Firstly, estimating cognitive models typically requires large hierarchical data sets that need to be accommodated by an appropriate statistical structure within the model. Secondly, statistical inference needs to appropriately account for model uncertainty to avoid overconfidence and biased parameter estimates. In the present work, we show how these challenges can be addressed through a combination of Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging. To illustrate these techniques, we apply the popular diffusion decision model to data from a collaborative selective influence study. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

认知模型为潜在的认知过程提供了有实质意义的定量描述。这些模型的定量表述有助于累积理论的建立,并能进行强有力的实证检验。然而,这些模型的非线性以及模型参数之间普遍存在的相关性,给认知模型的数据应用带来了特殊的挑战。首先,认知模型的估算通常需要大量的分层数据集,而这些数据集需要通过模型内适当的统计结构来适应。其次,统计推断需要适当考虑模型的不确定性,以避免过度自信和有偏差的参数估计。在本研究中,我们展示了如何通过结合贝叶斯分层建模和贝叶斯模型平均来应对这些挑战。为了说明这些技术,我们将流行的扩散决策模型应用于一项合作选择性影响研究的数据中。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Multivariate analysis of covariance for heterogeneous and incomplete data. 异质和不完整数据的多元协方差分析。
IF 7.6 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.1037/met0000558
Guillermo Vallejo, María Paula Fernández, Pablo Esteban Livacic-Rojas

This article discusses the robustness of the multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) test for an emergent variable system and proposes a modification of this test to obtain adequate information from heterogeneous normal observations. The proposed approach for testing potential effects in heterogeneous MANCOVA models can be adopted effectively, regardless of the degree of heterogeneity and sample size imbalance. As our method was not designed to handle missing values, we also show how to derive the formulas for pooling the results of multiple-imputation-based analyses into a single final estimate. Results of simulated studies and analysis of real-data show that the proposed combining rules provide adequate coverage and power. Based on the current evidence, the two solutions suggested could be effectively used by researchers for testing hypotheses, provided that the data conform to normality. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

本文讨论了新兴变量系统的多变量协方差分析(MANCOVA)检验的稳健性,并提出了对该检验的一种修改方法,以便从异质正态观测中获取足够的信息。无论异质性和样本量不平衡的程度如何,都可以有效地采用所提出的方法来检验异质性 MANCOVA 模型中的潜在效应。由于我们的方法并不是为了处理缺失值而设计的,因此我们还展示了如何推导出将基于多重输入的分析结果汇集成一个最终估计值的公式。模拟研究和真实数据分析的结果表明,建议的合并规则具有足够的覆盖范围和能力。根据目前的证据,只要数据符合正态性,研究人员可以有效地使用所建议的两种解决方案来检验假设。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
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Psychological methods
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