The cost of producing critical raw materials (CRMs) in Africa is governed by economic, technological, and social factors. This study examines the historical cost structures of cobalt, copper, platinum, and zinc commodities that underpin industrial applications and account for a substantial proportion of Africa's mineral production. Based on the analysed historical data and the identified key components, a predictive framework is then developed to estimate future CRM production costs. A comprehensive analysis of production costs over the past 24 years reveals significant trends and implications for the sector. Mine cost curves demonstrate that African production costs for these elements remain competitive but exhibit substantial variability depending on the level of mechanisation, labour expenses, and energy costs. The study establishes that while labour costs declined between 2011 and 2016, mechanisation offset potential cost reductions. A notable rise in operating costs post-2019 corresponds with increased demand for cobalt and copper, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, and platinum for hydrogen-based technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated price volatility and operational expenses. Comparisons with the Global North indicate that African mines operate at a cost advantage for cobalt and platinum due to higher ore grades, whereas copper and zinc producers face challenges associated with deeper mining and energy price fluctuations. Time series projections suggest that production costs will increase by 70 to 80% for platinum, 60 to 65% for cobalt and copper and upto 60% for zinc by 2055, primarily due to rising mine-site costs encompassing labour, energy, and technological investment. The findings have direct implications for policymakers and investors. While Africa remains a dominant supplier of CRMs, cost dynamics suggest that strategic interventions such as investment in energy efficiency, workforce development, and sustainable mining practices will be essential in ensuring long-term competitiveness. This study provides a foundation for data-driven decision-making in the evolving landscape of mineral production in Africa.
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