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AI, FinTech and clean minerals: A wavelet analysis and quantile value-at-risk investigation 人工智能、金融科技和清洁矿产:小波分析和量化风险价值调查
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105320
Sitara Karim , Afzol Husain , Weng Marc Lim , Ling-Foon Chan , Shehnaz Tehseen
The increasing demand for clean minerals and the rise of new-age technologies present significant challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. This study aims to explore how artificial intelligence (AI) and financial technology (FinTech) affect the exploitation of clean minerals in the pursuit of sustainable development. Employing wavelet analysis and quantile value-at-risk (QVaR), we provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationships, risks, and returns associated between clean minerals and these technological innovations. Our wavelet findings indicate that there are strong co-movements for aluminum, copper, and zinc with various clean and technological indices while nickel shows weak co-movements. Our QVaR results reveal significant differences in risk and return profiles across indices, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward nature of clean and technological sectors. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating AI and FinTech into regulatory frameworks and industry practices, advocating for a collaborative approach to leverage these technologies to influence the exploitation of clean minerals toward greater sustainability. Therefore, the novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive methodological approach to scrutinize the linkages between clean minerals and new-age technologies, with significant multi-stakeholder implications for policy and practice, aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
对清洁矿产日益增长的需求和新时代技术的兴起为可持续发展带来了重大挑战和机遇。本研究旨在探讨人工智能(AI)和金融科技(FinTech)如何影响清洁矿产的开采,以实现可持续发展。利用小波分析和量化风险价值(QVaR),我们对清洁矿产与这些技术创新之间的动态关系、风险和收益进行了全面分析。我们的小波分析结果表明,铝、铜和锌与各种清洁指数和技术指数之间存在较强的共振关系,而镍的共振关系较弱。我们的 QVaR 结果表明,不同指数的风险和收益情况存在显著差异,这凸显了清洁技术行业的高风险、高回报特性。这些见解强调了将人工智能和金融科技纳入监管框架和行业实践的重要性,倡导采取合作方式,利用这些技术影响清洁矿产的开发,以实现更大的可持续性。因此,本研究的新颖之处在于它采用了全面的方法论,仔细研究了清洁矿产与新时代技术之间的联系,对政策和实践产生了重要的多方影响,符合联合国可持续发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting China's thermal coal price: Does multivariate decomposition-integrated forecasting model with window rolling work? 预测中国动力煤价格:带滚动窗口的多变量分解-积分预测模型有效吗?
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105410
Qihui Shao , Yongqiang Du , Wenxuan Xue , Zhiyuan Yang , Zhenxin Jia , Xianzhu Shao , Xue Xu , Hongbo Duan , Zhipeng Zhu
Coal, as the primary energy source in China, significantly affects the country's energy security and national economic stability. However, the highly nonlinear and non-stationary nature of coal prices poses challenges for accurate forecasting. In this study, we propose the Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods series model based on the "divide and conquer" approach to predict the Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), involving the integration of multiple methods, including ANN, CNN, LSTM, GRU, LightGBM, and ERT. Unlike conventional univariate forecasting, we comprehensively summarise the factors influencing coal prices into eight categories, totalling 27 variables, with the aim of capturing more meaningful information. By employing the window-rolling decomposition-ensemble forecasting method, we effectively avoided information leakage and boundary effects, leading to a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods outperforms other Rolling Methods in terms of accuracy and stability. Novel variables, such as attention, and the other seven categories of influencing factors contribute to enhanced prediction accuracy, among which past coal prices exhibit higher importance in determining forecast results. The findings offer valuable guidance to coal enterprises in making production decisions and provide a basis for the government to formulate macroeconomic energy policies.
煤炭作为中国的主要能源,对中国的能源安全和国家经济稳定有着重要影响。然而,煤炭价格的高度非线性和非平稳性给准确预测带来了挑战。在本研究中,我们提出了基于 "分而治之 "方法的滚动 ICEEMDAN 方法序列模型来预测环渤海汽煤价格指数(BSPI),其中涉及多种方法的集成,包括 ANN、CNN、LSTM、GRU、LightGBM 和 ERT。与传统的单变量预测不同,我们将影响煤炭价格的因素综合归纳为八大类,共 27 个变量,旨在捕捉更有意义的信息。通过采用窗口滚动分解-集合预测方法,我们有效地避免了信息泄露和边界效应,从而显著提高了预测精度。实验结果表明,所提出的滚动 ICEEMDAN 方法在准确性和稳定性方面优于其他滚动方法。注意力等新变量和其他七类影响因素有助于提高预测精度,其中过去的煤炭价格在决定预测结果方面表现出更高的重要性。研究结果为煤炭企业的生产决策提供了有价值的指导,也为政府制定宏观经济能源政策提供了依据。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping the anthropogenic zinc cycle in China from 2000 to 2021: A dynamic material flow analysis 绘制 2000 至 2021 年中国人为锌循环图:动态物质流分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105417
Lu Tong , Yong Geng , Yueru Mei , Ziyan Gao , Sijie Liu
Zinc is one of strategic metals for economic advancement owing to its extensive utilization in various sectors. China is the largest zinc producer and consumer in the world and plays an important role in the global zinc supply chain. However, a clear picture of zinc metabolism, including its flows and stocks, remains unclear in China. This study investigates the anthropogenic zinc cycle within China's mainland for a period of 2000–2021 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis approach. Our results indicate that the demand for zinc ores increased from 1.86 Mt (megatons) in 2000 to 7.77 Mt in 2021, while the domestic zinc consumption increased from 1.51 Mt in 2000 to 6.39 Mt in 2021. In the use stage, galvanized zinc products dominated zinc consumption with a proportion of 62.49%, with the construction sector serving as the largest end-user with a proportion of 44.17%. However, the average zinc recycling rate was only 49.4%, primarily from new scraps collected in the manufacturing stage. In order to respond to the ambitious carbon neutrality target and rapid urbanization, the Chinese government has implemented mining restriction policies to curb domestic emissions, which induced more zinc imports. Consequently, the reliance on international trade increased from 27.57% in 2013 to 46.77% in 2021. Based upon these findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including preparing regulatory frameworks, promoting technological advancements, and applying various economic instruments. These recommendations can facilitate sustainable zinc resource management.
锌被广泛应用于各个领域,是促进经济发展的战略金属之一。中国是世界上最大的锌生产国和消费国,在全球锌供应链中扮演着重要角色。然而,中国锌的新陈代谢,包括其流量和存量的清晰图景仍不明确。本研究采用动态物质流分析方法,对 2000-2021 年中国大陆人为锌循环进行了研究。研究结果表明,锌矿需求量从 2000 年的 186 万吨增至 2021 年的 777 万吨,而国内锌消费量则从 2000 年的 151 万吨增至 2021 年的 639 万吨。在使用阶段,镀锌产品占锌消费量的 62.49%,建筑行业是最大的最终用户,占 44.17%。然而,锌的平均回收率仅为 49.4%,主要来自生产阶段收集的新废料。为了实现宏伟的碳中和目标以及快速的城市化进程,中国政府实施了采矿限制政策,以抑制国内排放,这导致了更多的锌进口。因此,对国际贸易的依赖程度从 2013 年的 27.57% 增加到 2021 年的 46.77%。基于这些研究结果,我们提出了若干政策建议,包括制定监管框架、促进技术进步以及应用各种经济手段。这些建议有助于锌资源的可持续管理。
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引用次数: 0
Considering the development levels of countries, contributions of mineral recovery from mining tailings and urban mining wastes to sustainability criteria – A review 考虑到各国的发展水平,从采矿尾矿和城市采矿废物中回收矿物对可持续性标准的贡献--综述
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105399
Taşkın Deniz Yıldız
The need for a sustainable mining waste management/legislation and mineral recovery from tailings is increasing day by day in the world. There is a need to draw a perspective for mining companies and public authorities & Sustainable Development Organizations (SDOs) on the sustainable recovery of mine waste from both mining operations and urban mining. Although there are many publications in the literature on mineral recovery from mine wastes, there is a lack of a study that will respond to the information needs of public authorities & SDOs in terms of both mining enterprises and urban mining sector on sustainable mineral recovery by covering the latest developments in the world and making the distinction between waste and tailing. Considering this deficiency in the literature, this study firstly emphasizes the on-site mitigation of mine wastes and their environmental impacts, and briefly discusses mine wastes & tailings dams in the mining process. Then, the mitigation of negative environmental impacts in landfills and the feasibility of mineral recovery from mining tailings and urban mining wastes are evaluated. Finally, the objective of mineral recovery in the context of sustainable development and legislative efforts are discussed. The results of the study are as follows: The wastes generated as a result of mining operations have increased worldwide. These mine wastes are used to recycle mines. The necessity and nature of the recovery of minerals from wastes necessitates the efficient management of these wastes. At this point, there is a need for effective and up-to-date mining waste legislation, incentives and practices to ensure an sustainable mining waste management and optimum mineral recovery from mining tailings. The categories of "mineral recovery from mining tailings" and "mineral recycling from urban mining waste" were compared by assigning an estimated score out of ten, considering the level of development of the countries and the characteristics of the categories. In this comparison, the contribution/relationships of the activities in these categories to different sustainability criteria are shown and in-text citations are considered in the scoring. By considering these contribution levels or lack thereof, countries with different levels of development in different geographies around the world can develop their mineral waste management and mineral recovery policies in much more detail, considering their mineral requirements and waste inventories. This study may contribute to less mineral waste generation and cleaner, more efficient, and sustainable mineral recovery in mining operations, thanks to the awareness it will create for mining companies and public authorities & SDOs. This study serves as a guide for SDOs and countries’ policymakers & mining sector on mineral recovery from waste in countries.
全球对可持续采矿废物管理/立法以及从尾矿中回收矿物的需求与日俱增。有必要为矿业公司和公共机构以及可持续发展组织(SDOs)就采矿作业和城市采矿中矿山废料的可持续回收问题提供一个视角。尽管有许多关于从矿山废料中回收矿物的文献,但缺乏一项研究能够通过涵盖世界最新发展情况并区分废料和尾矿,满足采矿企业和城市采矿部门的公共机构及可持续发展组织对可持续矿物回收的信息需求。考虑到文献中的这一不足,本研究首先强调了矿山废物及其环境影响的现场缓解,并简要讨论了采矿过程中的矿山废物和尾矿坝。然后,评估了垃圾填埋场对环境负面影响的缓解以及从采矿尾矿和城市采矿废物中回收矿物的可行性。最后,从可持续发展和立法工作的角度讨论了矿物回收的目标。研究结果如下:采矿作业产生的废物在全球范围内不断增加。这些矿山废料被用于矿山回收。从废料中回收矿物的必要性和性质要求对这些废料进行有效管理。因此,有必要制定有效和最新的采矿废物立法、激励措施和做法,以确保可持续的采矿废物管理和从采矿尾矿中进行最佳矿物回收。在对 "从采矿尾矿中回收矿物 "和 "从城市采矿废物中回收矿物 "这两个类别进行比较时,考虑到各国的发展水平和这两个类别的特点,对这两个类别进行了估计评分(满分为 10 分)。在比较中,显示了这些类别中的活动对不同可持续性标准的贡献/关系,并在评分时考虑了文中引文。通过考虑这些贡献程度或缺乏贡献程度,全球不同地区不同发展水平的国家可以更详细地制定其矿产废物管理和矿产回收政策,同时考虑其矿产需求和废物库存。本研究可为矿业公司和公共机构& 可持续发展组织提高认识,从而有助于减少矿产废物的产生,并在采矿作业中实现更清洁、更高效和可持续的矿产回收。本研究可作为可持续发展组织和各国决策者及采矿部门从各国废物中回收矿物的指南。
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引用次数: 0
Resource extraction, FinTech, and social equal access: A quantitative analysis of resource-rich countries 资源开采、金融科技和社会平等准入:对资源丰富国家的定量分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105416
Ghulam Ghouse , Mubasher Iqbal
Resource-rich countries hold potential for the alleviation of social disparities and the promotion of equal opportunities. Well-managed natural resource extraction can spur economic growth, create employment, and provide funds for some of the vital social programs that improve social accessibility to education, healthcare, and infrastructure altogether. Contingent upon such change, this study investigates the impact of natural resource extraction on equitable access for all members of society across countries that happen to be endowed with resources, using data for the period 2011–2022. The Driscoll-Kraay and Panel Quantile Regression methods are used to see how an improvement in resource extraction could benefit society by mainly reducing inequality. Key findings confirm that natural resource extraction positively influences equal access across social domains. FinTech improves directly on the degree of social accessibility and moderates toward sustainable, more inclusive outcomes in the effect of natural resource extraction. The control variables point towards the productive capacities supporting equal access. In contrast, military spending and high energy consumption have adverse effects. The results reveal a dual role of resource extraction and FinTech in helping to achieve inclusive development and underscore policies that would ensure optimal resource management in facilitating equitable societal growth.
资源丰富的国家具有缩小社会差距和促进机会平等的潜力。管理得当的自然资源开采可以刺激经济增长,创造就业机会,并为一些重要的社会项目提供资金,从而全面改善社会获得教育、医疗保健和基础设施的机会。基于这种变化,本研究利用 2011-2022 年期间的数据,调查了自然资源开采对资源丰富的国家所有社会成员公平获取资源的影响。本研究采用 Driscoll-Kraay 回归法和面板量子回归法,探讨资源开采的改善如何主要通过减少不平等来造福社会。主要研究结果证实,自然资源开采对各社会领域的平等获取产生了积极影响。金融科技直接改善了社会可及性程度,并在自然资源开采的影响方面向可持续的、更具包容性的结果调节。控制变量指向支持平等机会的生产能力。相比之下,军费开支和高能耗则会产生不利影响。研究结果揭示了资源开采和金融科技在帮助实现包容性发展方面的双重作用,并强调了确保优化资源管理以促进公平社会增长的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient natural resources management through financial and innovative technologies in developing nations from the lens of economic development 从经济发展的角度,通过发展中国家的金融和创新技术有效管理自然资源
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105401
Chuanzhi Huo , Weijie Leng , Yuy Xiang
The evolution of the digital economy has emerged as a critical feature in redefining the contribution of controversial factors, such as mineral extraction, especially in the developing world. This study investigates integrating innovative financial technologies with natural resource extraction in developing Asian economies. The objective is to assess the impact of financial integration (both financial innovation and innovative technology) on improving the efficiency of natural resource utilization. For this purpose, this study employs CS-ARDL regression analysis to examine the long-run correlation between the variables from 1990 to 2021. It establishes a positive and enduring correlation between financial innovation and natural resource conservation. Moreover, innovative technologies favorably influence resource consumption as they improve the efficiency and transparency of financial processes. Thus, the results show that financial innovation and innovative technologies have emerged as potent instruments, facilitating access to financial services, improving efficient resource management, and helping conserve resources.Therefore, this study determined that advancing finance integration with technological innovation has emerged as a crucial element in achieving sustainable resource consumption, balance between economic growth, environmental preservation, and social equity in developing economies.
数字经济的发展已成为重新定义矿产开采等有争议因素贡献的关键特征,尤其是在发展中世界。本研究调查了亚洲发展中经济体将创新金融技术与自然资源开采相结合的情况。目的是评估金融一体化(包括金融创新和创新技术)对提高自然资源利用效率的影响。为此,本研究采用 CS-ARDL 回归分析法,考察了 1990 年至 2021 年各变量之间的长期相关性。结果表明,金融创新与自然资源保护之间存在持久的正相关关系。此外,创新技术提高了金融流程的效率和透明度,从而对资源消耗产生有利影响。因此,本研究认为,推进金融与技术创新的融合已成为发展中经济体实现可持续资源消耗、平衡经济增长、环境保护和社会公平的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
Fintech adoption and sustainable deployment of natural resources: Evidence from mineral management in Brazil 金融科技的采用与自然资源的可持续配置:巴西矿产管理的证据
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105411
Asif Raihan , Filiz Guneysu Atasoy , Mehmet Burhanettin Coskun , Tipon Tanchangya , Junaid Rahman , Mohammad Ridwan , Tapan Sarker , Ahmed Elkassabgi , Murat Atasoy , Huseyin Yer
This research aims to investigate the influence of FinTech implementation on responsible mineral resources management in Brazilian economy. For the study purposes it has utilized data set from 1990 to 2022 and for data analysis the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach has been used. The results show cointegration correlation between FinTech adoption, investment in eco-friendly mining, government funding for FinTech in the mining industry, environmental compliance, technological readiness, and sustainable mineral extraction. The result shows that a 1% increase in FinTech adoption and technology infrastructure readiness would improve sustainable mineral management by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively. However, a 1% increase in the government funding for FinTech in the mining industry, environmental compliance, and investments in sustainable mining technology adversely affect sustainable mineral management by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% over the long term. The finding provides insight about how variables may affect sustainable mining policies in the future. FinTech adoption and technology flexibility are expected to have a favorable impact on natural resources. This research offers important insights for using natural resources responsibly in the shift to Industry 4.0 by utilizing FinTech and technological readiness in Brazil.
本研究旨在调查金融科技的实施对巴西经济中负责任的矿产资源管理的影响。研究采用了 1990 年至 2022 年的数据集,并使用了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法进行数据分析。结果显示,金融科技的采用、生态友好型采矿业的投资、政府对采矿业金融科技的资助、环境合规性、技术准备程度和可持续矿产开采之间存在协整相关性。结果显示,金融科技采用率和技术基础设施准备度每提高 1%,可持续矿产管理就会分别提高 0.01% 和 0.03%。然而,政府对采矿业金融科技的资助、环境合规性和可持续采矿技术投资每增加 1%,就会对可持续矿产管理产生不利影响,长期影响分别为 0.2%、0.1% 和 0.1%。这一发现为我们提供了有关变量在未来如何影响可持续采矿政策的见解。金融科技的采用和技术灵活性有望对自然资源产生有利影响。这项研究为巴西在向工业 4.0 转型的过程中利用金融科技和技术准备情况以负责任的方式利用自然资源提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
Does Fintech influence green utilization efficiency of mineral resources? Evidence from China's regional data 金融科技影响矿产资源的绿色利用效率吗?来自中国地区数据的证据
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105404
Xiaodong Yang , Asif Razzaq
The extraction and utilization of mineral resources often lead to environmental pollution and resource depletion, highlighting the urgent need to improve green utilization efficiency. At the same time, Fintech, a fusion of financial services and technological innovation, transforms the traditional financial landscape and significantly affects natural resource markets. Given this, we examines the impact of Fintech on the mineral resources green utilization efficiency (Mrgue) across 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2021. The results show that Fintech significantly boosts Mrgue, particularly in the eastern regions of China. However, these effects are less pronounced in the central and western regions. The marginal impact of Fintech on Mrgue is notably positive and strengthens at higher quantiles. A significant improvement in Mrgue is observed only after Fintech surpasses a specific threshold. Lastly, Fintech promotes Mrgue by driving green technological innovation and optimizing the energy consumption structure. These findings offer insights for policymakers to understand Fintech's role better and leverage it to advance Mrgue.
矿产资源的开采和利用往往导致环境污染和资源枯竭,提高绿色利用效率迫在眉睫。与此同时,金融科技(Fintech)作为金融服务与技术创新的融合,改变了传统的金融格局,并对自然资源市场产生了重大影响。有鉴于此,我们研究了2012-2021年金融科技对中国30个省级行政区矿产资源绿色利用效率(Mrgue)的影响。结果表明,金融科技显著提高了矿产资源绿色利用效率,尤其是在中国东部地区。然而,这些影响在中西部地区并不明显。金融科技对Mrgue的边际影响明显为正,并在较高的量级上增强。只有在金融科技超过特定临界值后,Mrgue 才会有明显改善。最后,Fintech 通过推动绿色技术创新和优化能源消费结构,促进了 Mrgue。这些发现为政策制定者更好地理解 Fintech 的作用并利用其促进 Mrgue 提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Private enterprises solution for fossil fuels transition: Role of ESG and carbon reporting 化石燃料转型的私营企业解决方案:环境、社会和公司治理以及碳报告的作用
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105407
Mo Bai , Weixuan Wang , Zhigang Li
This paper analyzes the impact of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investment on China's transition from fossil fuels between 1990 and 2020 using the ARDL approach. The findings indicate that a 1% rise in ESG investment correlates with a 0.18% increase in the fossil fuels transition index in the short term and 0.36% in the long term, facilitating cleaner technologies and lowering CO2 emissions. Additionally, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) enhances the transition index through the adoption of eco-friendly technologies. Conversely, a 1% growth in industrial production or export volume negatively impacts the index, reflecting increased fossil fuel dependency. Furthermore, GDP per capita adversely affects the transition, revealing a higher demand for fossil fuel-dependent goods. Policy suggestions include enhancing ESG reporting and auditing, fostering a strong green finance sector, promoting environmental rankings, and increasing public awareness through media and education.
本文采用ARDL方法分析了1990年至2020年间ESG(环境、社会和治理)投资对中国化石燃料转型的影响。研究结果表明,环境、社会和治理投资每增加 1%,化石燃料转型指数就会在短期内增加 0.18%,在长期内增加 0.36%,从而促进清洁技术的发展,降低二氧化碳排放。此外,中小型企业(SMEs)的发展也会通过采用生态友好型技术提高转型指数。相反,工业生产或出口量每增长 1%,就会对该指数产生负面影响,反映出对化石燃料的依赖性增加。此外,人均 GDP 也会对转型指数产生负面影响,表明对依赖化石燃料的商品需求增加。政策建议包括:加强环境、社会和公司治理报告和审计,培育强大的绿色金融部门,推广环境排名,以及通过媒体和教育提高公众意识。
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引用次数: 0
Reinvestigating the impact of natural resource rents on carbon emissions: Novel insights from geopolitical risks and economic complexity 重新研究自然资源租金对碳排放的影响:地缘政治风险和经济复杂性的新见解
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105400
Qiang Wang, Fuyu Zhang, Rongrong Li, Siqi Zhang
Understanding the relationship between natural resource rents and carbon emissions is crucial for achieving a balance between economic development and environmental sustainability. This study reinvestigates the impact of natural resource rents on carbon emissions and explores the threshold effects of geopolitical risks and economic complexity, aiming to provide a more comprehensive understanding of their relationship. Based on an empirical analysis of panel data from 38 countries between 1995 and 2021, the conclusions are as follows. (i) The panel ARDL estimation results reveal that natural resource rents increase carbon emissions over the long term, with this finding remaining robust after addressing endogeneity. (ii) The DPTR model results indicate that natural resource rents have a non-linear impact on carbon emissions, shaped by geopolitical risks and economic complexity. As geopolitical risks escalate, the effect of resource rents on carbon emissions shifts from a reduction to an increase. On the contrary, rising economic complexity reverses this impact, causing natural resource rents to reduce carbon emissions. (iii) Heterogeneity analysis results demonstrate that only the impact of oil and natural gas rents on carbon emissions is affected by high geopolitical risks. Additionally, in contexts of high economic complexity, oil, natural gas, and forest rents help reduce carbon emissions, while coal and mineral rents have a negative impact. Finally, policy implications for global resource management and environmental sustainability that combine geopolitical risk and economic complexity are proposed.
了解自然资源租金与碳排放之间的关系对于实现经济发展与环境可持续性之间的平衡至关重要。本研究重新研究了自然资源租金对碳排放的影响,并探讨了地缘政治风险和经济复杂性的门槛效应,旨在更全面地理解二者之间的关系。基于 1995 年至 2021 年 38 个国家面板数据的实证分析,得出以下结论。(i) 面板 ARDL 估计结果显示,自然资源租金会长期增加碳排放,在解决了内生性问题后,这一结论依然稳健。(ii) DPTR 模型结果表明,自然资源租金对碳排放具有非线性影响,受地缘政治风险和经济复杂性的影响。随着地缘政治风险的升级,资源租金对碳排放的影响由减少转为增加。相反,经济复杂性的上升会逆转这种影响,使自然资源租金减少碳排放。(iii) 异质性分析结果表明,只有石油和天然气租金对碳排放的影响受到高地缘政治风险的影响。此外,在经济高度复杂的情况下,石油、天然气和森林租金有助于减少碳排放,而煤炭和矿产租金则会产生负面影响。最后,结合地缘政治风险和经济复杂性,提出了对全球资源管理和环境可持续性的政策影响。
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