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Causality, Connectedness, and Volatility pass-through among Energy-Metal-Stock-Carbon Markets: New Evidence from the EU 能源-金属-股票-碳市场之间的因果关系、关联性和波动传递:来自欧盟的新证据
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105408
Parisa Pakrooh , Matteo Manera
The EU carbon market serves as an innovative financial instrument with the primary objective of contributing to mitigating the impacts of climate change. This market demonstrates significant interconnectedness with fossil energy, precious metal, and financial markets, although limited research has focused on the causality, dependency, intensity and direction of time-varying spillover effects. This study examines how the energy, metal, and financial markets have an impact on the EU carbon market. It focuses on three main research questions, namely: 1) how do these markets affect each other?; 2) how do they connect?; 3) how do volatilities spillover among them? By answering these questions, the study aims to assist EU decision makers to develop effective carbon policies, help investors manage risks and promote practices that are consistent with the EU's climate goal. To achieve these objectives, this paper proposes a novel methodological approach that combines the most recent econometrics methods, such as Directed Acyclic Graph analysis, Canonical Vine Copula models, and Time-Varying parameter Vector Auto Regressive models with Stochastic Volatility with the use of a comprehensive sample of daily data from April 26, 2005 to December 31, 2022. The major findings of this study demonstrate that causality predominantly runs from energy, metal, and financial markets to the EU carbon market. The dependency structure, although varying across different sub-periods, shows a strong relationship observed between oil, coal, silver, copper, EuroStoxx600, and CO2 market. Additionally, the oil and copper futures prices exhibit the highest dependence on EUA prices. Furthermore, the study establishes that the EU carbon market is a net receiver of shocks from all other markets, with the energy, metal, and financial markets significantly influencing volatility in EUA prices. The time-varying spillover effect is most pronounced with a one-day lag, and the duration of the spillover effects ranges from 2 to 15 days, gradually diminishing over time. These results have the potential to increase the understanding of the EU carbon market and offer practical guidance for policymakers, investors, and companies involved in this domain.
欧盟碳市场是一种创新的金融工具,其主要目标是减轻气候变化的影响。该市场与化石能源、贵金属和金融市场之间存在着显著的相互联系,但有关时变溢出效应的因果关系、依赖性、强度和方向的研究却十分有限。本研究探讨了能源、金属和金融市场如何对欧盟碳市场产生影响。它主要研究三个问题,即1) 这些市场如何相互影响?通过回答这些问题,本研究旨在协助欧盟决策者制定有效的碳政策,帮助投资者管理风险,并推广符合欧盟气候目标的做法。为了实现这些目标,本文提出了一种新颖的方法论,即结合最新的计量经济学方法,如定向循环图分析、Canonical Vine Copula 模型和具有随机波动性的时变参数向量自回归模型,并使用 2005 年 4 月 26 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的每日数据综合样本。本研究的主要发现表明,因果关系主要是从能源、金属和金融市场到欧盟碳市场。尽管在不同的子时期,因果关系结构各不相同,但石油、煤炭、白银、铜、EuroStoxx600 和二氧化碳市场之间的因果关系非常密切。此外,石油和铜期货价格对 EUA 价格的依赖程度最高。此外,研究还发现,欧盟碳市场是所有其他市场冲击的净接收者,能源、金属和金融市场对欧盟碳市场价格的波动有显著影响。滞后一天的时变溢出效应最为明显,溢出效应的持续时间从 2 天到 15 天不等,随着时间的推移逐渐减弱。这些结果有可能加深人们对欧盟碳市场的理解,并为该领域的政策制定者、投资者和企业提供实用指导。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of oil and gold prices on Bitcoin price during Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars 俄乌战争和以色列-加沙战争期间石油和黄金价格对比特币价格的影响
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105405
Shabnam Zeinedini , Mohammad Sharif Karimi , Azad Khanzadi , Ali Falahati
Political tensions between countries and geopolitical events can create significant uncertainty in financial markets, impacting the prices of traditional assets such as oil and gold, as well as the emerging asset, Bitcoin. This study investigates the effect of gold and oil prices, including their price shocks, on Bitcoin price during two specific conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. To achieve this, we employed the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) method and wavelet coherence analysis. The data used spans daily observations from January 2022 to April 2024.The findings indicate that gold prices have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Specifically, there is a predominantly short-term relationship between gold prices and Bitcoin prices throughout the entire period under review, with this influence gradually decreasing over the medium and long term. Conversely, the relationship between Brent oil prices and Bitcoin prices during the same period shows that crude oil prices generally have a negative and insignificant effect on Bitcoin prices in the short term.
国家间的政治紧张局势和地缘政治事件会给金融市场带来巨大的不确定性,影响石油和黄金等传统资产以及新兴资产比特币的价格。本研究探讨了在俄乌战争和以色列-加沙冲突这两个特定冲突期间,黄金和石油价格(包括其价格冲击)对比特币价格的影响。为此,我们采用了向量自回归(VAR)方法和小波相干性分析。研究结果表明,黄金价格对比特币价格有积极影响。具体而言,在整个研究期间,黄金价格与比特币价格之间主要存在短期关系,这种影响在中长期内逐渐减弱。相反,同期布伦特油价与比特币价格之间的关系表明,原油价格在短期内对比特币价格的影响一般为负且不明显。
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引用次数: 0
Digitalization of the financial market and green coal trade 金融市场数字化与绿色煤炭贸易
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105406
Ping Wang , Chengcheng Huang , Gang Zhou , Wenjun Wu , Xinmeng Wu
In recent years, fintech advancements have influenced global coal trade patterns. This study analyzes the impact of fintech on coal trade across 80 countries from 2012 to 2019. Findings from the MGARDL model reveal that increased fintech activity reduces coal imports while boosting exports, suggesting enhanced trade efficiency and access to capital. Income inequality and private infrastructure investment negatively impact coal trade, likely due to restricted financial access and infrastructure limitations. Meanwhile, ICT development supports coal trade by streamlining logistics and finance. The study confirms a bidirectional relationship between fintech and coal trade, emphasizing mutual influence. Policy recommendations include promoting fintech adoption, encouraging sustainable investments, improving financial access, and expanding ICT infrastructure to foster a more sustainable coal trade.
近年来,金融科技的进步影响了全球煤炭贸易模式。本研究分析了 2012 年至 2019 年金融科技对 80 个国家煤炭贸易的影响。MGARDL模型的研究结果表明,金融科技活动的增加减少了煤炭进口,同时促进了出口,这表明贸易效率和资本获取能力得到了提高。收入不平等和私人基础设施投资对煤炭贸易产生了负面影响,这可能是由于金融准入受限和基础设施限制造成的。同时,信息和通信技术的发展通过简化物流和金融来支持煤炭贸易。研究证实了金融科技与煤炭贸易之间的双向关系,强调了二者之间的相互影响。政策建议包括促进金融科技的应用、鼓励可持续投资、改善金融准入、扩大信息和通信技术基础设施,以促进更可持续的煤炭贸易。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of critical raw materials policy for electrical and electronic equipment: Planning for a truly circular economy 分析电气和电子设备的关键原材料政策:规划真正的循环经济
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105380
N.A. Vafeas , P. Slezak , M.W. Hitzman
The European Union's objectives under the Green and Digital transitions, are contingent on the decarbonisation of essential sectors such as energy, transportation, and communications. At present, the EU does not have sufficient identified mineral resources, nor processing capacity, to supply many of its strategically defined materials. The success of these objectives hinges on the EU's ability to secure a stable and consistent supply of critical raw materials (CRM). Using a systematic three-part assessment of mandated and non-mandated EU policies, European Commission communications, and a review of CRM, the findings reveal that despite efforts to enhance local supply and diversify foreign sources of CRM, there is a lack of cross-sector coherence across social, economic, and technical aspects of recycling. This is further exacerbated by inefficient retention of waste-hosted critical raw materials. Failure to adopt integrative policy measures may result in the EU's continued dependency on undiversified foreign sources for its supply of critical raw materials, thereby compromising its strategic autonomy as well as the goals of the Green and Digital transitions. Improved design of electrical and electronic equipment and processing of waste from these products could conceivably provide a mechanism for a continuous and retained supply of critical raw materials, culminating in a potentially significant resource stream for the Union. The EU can improve resource efficiency, reduce its dependence on imports, and facilitate a truly circular economy by adopting a comprehensive and symbiotic policy framework that quantifies material resources in waste and that recognises the product design stage as an integral facet of the product recycling stage, herein referred to as “forwardcycling”.
欧盟在 "绿色转型 "和 "数字转型 "方面的目标取决于能源、交通和通信等重要部门的去碳化。目前,欧盟既没有足够的已查明矿产资源,也没有足够的加工能力来供应许多具有战略意义的材料。这些目标能否成功实现,取决于欧盟能否确保关键原材料(CRM)的稳定和持续供应。通过对欧盟的授权和非授权政策、欧盟委员会的沟通以及对 CRM 的审查三部分进行系统评估,研究结果表明,尽管欧盟努力加强本地供应并使 CRM 的国外来源多样化,但在回收利用的社会、经济和技术方面缺乏跨部门的一致性。废物所含关键原材料的低效保留进一步加剧了这一问题。如果不采取综合政策措施,欧盟的关键原材料供应可能会继续依赖不多元化的外国来源,从而损害其战略自主性以及绿色和数字转型的目标。可以想象,改进电气和电子设备的设计以及处理这些产品的废料,可以提供一种持续和保留关键原材料供应的机制,最终为欧盟提供潜在的重要资源流。欧盟可以提高资源效率,减少对进口的依赖,并促进真正的循环经济,办法是采用一个全面和共生的政策框架,量化废物中的物质资源,并承认产品设计阶段是产品回收阶段(此处称为 "前向循环")的一个组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Private climate investment, coal transition and digitalization in the major coal-consuming countries 主要煤炭消费国的私人气候投资、煤炭转型和数字化
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105382
Ling Liu
This paper examines the relationship between private investment, digitalization, and coal rent in major coal-consuming countries from 1999 to 2019. Using the CS-FMOLS technique, the results show that a 1% increase in the ICT Development Index raises coal rent by 0.24%, underscoring digitalization's role in enhancing coal industry profitability. Conversely, a 1% increase in private participation in infrastructure reduces coal rent by 0.35%, as private investments focus on sustainable energy. The study concludes that while private investment supports clean energy, digitalization extends coal reliance. To support coal transition, policies should promote green ICT production, renewable energy, green finance, and good governance in sustainable projects.
本文研究了 1999 年至 2019 年主要煤炭消费国的私人投资、数字化和煤炭租金之间的关系。利用 CS-FMOLS 技术,结果显示,信息和通信技术发展指数每增加 1%,煤炭租金就会提高 0.24%,这凸显了数字化在提高煤炭行业盈利能力方面的作用。相反,私人参与基础设施建设每增加 1%,煤炭租金就会减少 0.35%,因为私人投资的重点是可持续能源。研究得出结论,私人投资支持清洁能源,而数字化则扩大了对煤炭的依赖。为支持煤炭转型,政策应促进绿色 ICT 生产、可再生能源、绿色金融和可持续项目的良好治理。
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引用次数: 0
Mineral policy dynamics and their impact on equity market volatility in the global south: A multi-country analysis 矿产政策动态及其对全球南部股票市场波动的影响:多国分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105373
Haithem Awijen , Sami Ben Jabeur , Houssein Ballouk
This study investigates the complex interplay between natural resources policy amendments in the Global South countries and their subsequent impact on equity market volatility, particularly in Asian countries. It scrutinizes how legislative, statute, act, code, or executive decree changes jointly provoke equity market volatility. Utilizing the asymmetric volatility Multiplicative Error Model, our research reveals how alterations in mineral policies significantly affect equity market volatility across various nations in the Global South. Notably, China is the most significant influencer, alongside India and Malaysia. The results indicate a strong link between government actions, including policy reforms and fiscal strategies, and the propagation of market volatility. This connection underscores the growing interdependence among Asian stock indices. This study provides valuable perspectives for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in the Global South seeking to navigate the complex economic implications of natural resources policy decisions on equity markets.
本研究探讨了全球南方国家自然资源政策修订及其对股票市场波动的后续影响之间复杂的相互作用,尤其是在亚洲国家。它仔细研究了立法、法规、法案、法典或行政命令的变化是如何共同引发股市波动的。利用非对称波动乘误模型,我们的研究揭示了矿产政策的变化如何显著影响全球南方各国的股市波动。值得注意的是,中国以及印度和马来西亚是影响最大的国家。研究结果表明,包括政策改革和财政战略在内的政府行为与市场波动的传播之间存在密切联系。这种联系凸显了亚洲股票指数之间日益增长的相互依存关系。这项研究为全球南部的政策制定者、投资者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的视角,帮助他们了解自然资源政策决策对股票市场的复杂经济影响。
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引用次数: 0
The role of blockchain technology in facilitating finance for metal and mining resources 区块链技术在促进金属和矿产资源融资方面的作用
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105383
Ting Cai , Xinchun Shi , Zhaoyan Shang , Xinxin Zhu , Jingjing Qi
As ESG investment becomes a key sustainability goal, its importance grows amid technological advancements. This study explores the effect of blockchain on ESG investments in 100 Chinese A-listed firms in the metal and mining sectors from 2016 to 2019. CS-FMOLS estimates show that a 1% rise in blockchain use increases ESG investments by 0.017%, underscoring blockchain's role in boosting transparency and efficiency. Additionally, a 1% increase in profits results in a 0.362% rise in ESG investments, and a 1% boost in EPS yields a 0.177% increase in ESG investments. Conversely, a 1% growth in personnel leads to a 0.42% decrease in ESG investment, highlighting a gap in green jobs and literacy. Changes in R&D spending have no significant effect on ESG investments. To enhance ESG investments, policies should include sustainable education, industry-specific cryptocurrencies, blockchain-based credit references, and expanded use in carbon markets.
随着环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)投资成为可持续发展的关键目标,其重要性也在技术进步中与日俱增。本研究探讨了区块链在 2016 年至 2019 年期间对 100 家中国 A 股金属和采矿行业上市公司的 ESG 投资的影响。CS-FMOLS的估算结果显示,区块链的使用每增加1%,ESG投资就会增加0.017%,凸显了区块链在提高透明度和效率方面的作用。此外,利润每增加 1%,ESG 投资就会增加 0.362%;每股收益每增加 1%,ESG 投资就会增加 0.177%。相反,人员增长 1%,环境、社会和公司治理投资就会减少 0.42%,这凸显了绿色工作和素养方面的差距。研发支出的变化对 ESG 投资没有明显影响。为加强环境、社会和公司治理投资,政策应包括可持续教育、特定行业的加密货币、基于区块链的信用参考以及在碳市场中的扩大使用。
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引用次数: 0
Evolutionary characteristics and structural dependence determinants of global lithium trade network: An industry chain perspective 全球锂贸易网络的演变特征和结构依赖性决定因素:产业链视角
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105381
Yonglin Li , Zhili Zuo , Jinhua Cheng , Deyi Xu
As a globally emerging critical mineral, lithium is increasingly prominent in international trade, emphasizing the importance for energy transition and industrial structure upgrading to understand the evolution and formation of the global lithium trade networks (GLTN). From the perspective of industry chain, this paper uses complex network theory to construct GLTN for 2000–2021, investigates the determinants of network structure dependence through an exponential random graph model (ERGM), for analyzing the evolutionary characteristics and formation mechanisms of trade networks in both the holistic and local dimensions. The results show that, firstly, GLTN exhibits the overall characteristics of a "sparse upstream and tight midstream and downstream" network. The downstream exhibits a distinctive small-world network feature. China, the United States and Europe are the most active countries and regions in GLTN, covering the whole industry chains. Second, endogenous structure, node attributes and exogenous network effects all exert an influence on network structure. Regarding the impact of network structural dependence, lithium trade has transitivity effect, connectivity effect, and popularity effect. Third, the shocks of COVID-19 cut off the transitivity effect formed by indirect dependencies to the downstream industry chain first, resulting in a high network volatility. There is a strong heterogeneity in the network structural dependency for the industry chain.
锂作为全球新兴的重要矿产,在国际贸易中的地位日益突出,了解全球锂贸易网络(GLTN)的演化和形成对能源转型和产业结构升级具有重要意义。本文从产业链角度出发,运用复杂网络理论构建了2000-2021年全球锂贸易网络(GLTN),通过指数随机图模型(ERGM)研究网络结构依赖性的决定因素,从整体和局部两个维度分析贸易网络的演化特征和形成机制。结果表明:首先,GLTN 呈现出 "上游稀疏、中下游紧密 "的网络整体特征。下游呈现出明显的小世界网络特征。中国、美国和欧洲是 GLTN 中最活跃的国家和地区,覆盖了整个产业链。其次,内生结构、节点属性和外生网络效应都会对网络结构产生影响。在网络结构依赖的影响方面,锂贸易具有传递性效应、连通性效应和流行性效应。第三,COVID-19 的冲击首先切断了对下游产业链的间接依赖所形成的传递性效应,导致网络波动性较大。产业链的网络结构依赖存在较强的异质性。
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引用次数: 0
When energy dispels curse: Linking natural resources, energy and inclusive growth in Africa 当能源驱散诅咒:将自然资源、能源与非洲的包容性增长联系起来
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105384
Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto , Augustin Borice Ngounou , Thierry Pondie Messie , Emmanuel Wayisovia Juakaly , Clément Nicodème Mefire Njikam
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we assess the impact of natural resource dependence on inclusive growth in Africa and the channels through which this impact is transmitted; and second, we investigate the moderating role of energy in the relationship between natural resources and inclusive growth. Using data from 48 African countries over the period 1995–2020, we then mobilized several recent methods to effectively address the endogeneity issue, including Driscoll-Kraay, the Generalized Method of Moments in System (GMM-S) and the Two-stage Instrumental Variables (2SIV) approach. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis. First, natural resource dependence significantly reduces inclusive growth in Africa. Second, trade openness, human capital, and institutional quality mediate this effect by 46%, 65%, and 18%, respectively. Third, energy use moderates the relationship between natural resources and inclusive growth in Africa. Specifically, access to electricity and clean cooking energy improves the region's inclusive growth, while renewable energy and energy intensity worsen it. Fourth, the control variables significantly affect inclusive growth in line with the literature. First, we suggest large government investments in renewable energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on non-renewable resources, diversify the economy, and promote inclusive, sustainable economic growth in the long run. Second, public policies targeting workers, firms, and communities are needed to ensure an equitable transition to renewable energy to improve energy efficiency on the continent.
本文有两个目的。首先,我们评估了自然资源依赖性对非洲包容性增长的影响,以及这种影响的传播渠道;其次,我们研究了能源在自然资源与包容性增长之间关系中的调节作用。利用 1995-2020 年间 48 个非洲国家的数据,我们采用了几种最新方法来有效解决内生性问题,包括 Driscoll-Kraay、广义系统矩法(GMM-S)和两阶段工具变量法(2SIV)。计量经济学分析得出了几个结果。首先,对自然资源的依赖大大降低了非洲的包容性增长。其次,贸易开放度、人力资本和制度质量分别以 46%、65% 和 18% 的比例调节了这一影响。第三,能源使用调节了自然资源与非洲包容性增长之间的关系。具体来说,获得电力和清洁烹饪能源会提高该地区的包容性增长,而可再生能源和能源强度则会降低包容性增长。第四,控制变量对包容性增长的影响很大,这与相关文献一致。首先,我们建议政府对可再生能源基础设施进行大规模投资,以减少对不可再生资源的依赖,实现经济多元化,促进包容性、可持续的长期经济增长。其次,需要制定针对工人、企业和社区的公共政策,以确保公平地向可再生能源过渡,从而提高非洲大陆的能源效率。
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引用次数: 0
Breaking mineral resource curse through digital economy: Resource-based regions' sustainable path in the age of digitalization 通过数字经济打破矿产资源诅咒:资源型地区在数字化时代的可持续发展之路
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105379
Yanwei Lyu , Wenqiang Wang , You Wu , Jinning Zhang
As a new economic driver, the digital economy emerged globally in recent years. However, its potential role in alleviating the mineral resource curse may be disregarded. In this paper, urban mineral resource curse and digital economy are scientifically quantified through the data of 265 Chinese cities in 2009–2019. The FE model and spatial Durbin model are employed to examine the direct effects, specific mechanisms as well as spillover effects of digital economy on mineral resource curse. When digital economy is less than 0.123, the digital economy results in a worse mineral resource curse, but when digital economy exceeds 0.123, it turns into an enabler for breaking the mineral resource curse. Green total factor productivity, industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation are not only the major mechanisms for digital economy to break mineral resource curse, but also essential channels for the inverted U-shaped relationship. According to the heterogeneity analysis, mineral resource-based cities or cursed cities derive greater benefits for breaking mineral resource curse from digitalization process.
作为一种新的经济驱动力,数字经济近年来在全球兴起。然而,其在缓解矿产资源诅咒方面的潜在作用可能被忽视。本文通过 2009-2019 年中国 265 个城市的数据,对城市矿产资源诅咒和数字经济进行了科学量化。采用 FE 模型和空间杜宾模型,考察了数字经济对矿产资源诅咒的直接影响、具体机制以及溢出效应。当数字经济小于 0.123 时,数字经济会导致矿产资源诅咒恶化,但当数字经济超过 0.123 时,数字经济会成为打破矿产资源诅咒的助推器。绿色全要素生产率、产业结构升级和技术创新不仅是数字经济打破矿产资源诅咒的主要机制,也是倒 "U "型关系的重要渠道。根据异质性分析,矿产资源型城市或受诅咒城市从数字化进程中获得了更大的打破矿产资源诅咒的收益。
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引用次数: 0
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