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Do natural resources influence E-government in developing countries? Effects and transmission channels 自然资源会影响发展中国家的电子政务吗?影响和传播渠道
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105349
Foudjo Suzie Imelda , Ndikeu Njoya Nabil Aman , Keneck-Massil Joseph
E-government has taken a prominent place in the political and economical debate. Despite the vast non-consensual literature, on the effects of natural resources, very little is known about the effects of these resources on the development of e-government. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the effect of natural resources on the development of e-government in a panel of 121 developing countries over the period 2003–2021. Through several empirical approaches, our results show that, on average, natural resource rents negatively affect the development of e-government. Distinguishing between different types of natural resources, we note that the negative effect of natural resources on the development of e-government remains, and the magnitude is more persistent for forestry, gas and oil rents. Furthermore, the mediation analysis suggests that the negative effect of natural resources on the development of e-government is influenced by trust in institutions, the size of the informal sector, corruption, and the quality of telecommunications infrastructures.
电子政务在政治和经济辩论中占据了重要位置。尽管有大量关于自然资源影响的非共识性文献,但人们对这些资源对电子政务发展的影响知之甚少。本研究旨在通过分析 2003-2021 年间 121 个发展中国家的自然资源对电子政务发展的影响来填补这一空白。通过几种实证方法,我们的研究结果表明,平均而言,自然资源租金对电子政务的发展有负面影响。区分不同类型的自然资源,我们注意到自然资源对电子政务发展的负面影响依然存在,而且林业、天然气和石油租金的负面影响程度更为持久。此外,中介分析表明,自然资源对电子政务发展的负面影响受到机构信任、非正规部门规模、腐败和电信基础设施质量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the dynamic economic impacts of oil supply disruptions on China: A case study of Malacca Strait block 估算石油供应中断对中国的动态经济影响:马六甲海峡区块案例研究
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105376
Hao Chen, Wenfeng Zhang, Xiangting Huang, Xin Wang
The intensification of geopolitical conflicts necessitates formulating economically effective coping strategies, which requires scientifically understanding the economic losses caused by oil supply disruptions and their evolutionary patterns. However, current assessment results are mostly static and cover direct losses, which are inadequate to fully support the development of disaster prevention measures. Therefore, considering the interdependence across different sectors, we employed a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model to assess the economic impacts of a 20% disruption in oil imports through the Malacca Strait, lasting for 90 days. The main findings are as follows: (1) 2% of a sector's inoperability caused by oil supply disruption will, on average, be transmitted to other sectors due to their interdependencies. (2) The disruption will result in total economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan for China, and 70% of the total economic losses were incurred within the first 30 days. (3) To cope with the adverse economic impacts of oil transport disruption in the Malacca Strait, the optimal range of China's strategic petroleum reserve is 47.91–169.55 million barrels.
地缘政治冲突的加剧要求制定经济上有效的应对战略,这就需要科学地了解石油供应中断造成的经济损失及其演变规律。然而,目前的评估结果大多是静态的,只涉及直接损失,不足以全面支持防灾措施的制定。因此,考虑到不同部门之间的相互依存关系,我们采用了动态不可操作性投入产出模型来评估马六甲海峡石油进口中断 20%(持续 90 天)的经济影响。主要结论如下(1) 石油供应中断造成的某一部门 2%的无法运营,由于相互依存关系,平均会传导到其他部门。(2) 石油供应中断将给中国造成 627 亿元的经济损失,其中 70% 的经济损失发生在最初的 30 天内。(3)为应对马六甲海峡石油运输中断带来的不利经济影响,中国战略石油储备的最佳范围为 4791-1.6955 亿桶。
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引用次数: 0
An evolutionary game analysis of new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions in China 中国矿产资源丰富地区新型城镇化的演化博弈分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105377
Lijun Zeng , Wenjing Du , Jinfeng Wang , Weichen Hong , Jinsuo Zhang
The scientific new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions (MRARs) in China is not only a guarantee for energy and resource security but also of great significance to realize strong sustainability. However, the new urbanization of MRARs in China is facing a series of difficulties due to the particularity of mineral resources. Therefore, to identify the policy foci of MRARs suitable for different new urbanization paths, this study conducts an evolutionary game analysis to find the urbanization evolution trends of MRARs. First, we established an asymmetric evolutionary game model to study the process of strategy selection between rural and urban residents in MRARs. Second, MATLAB was used to conduct numerical simulation to find the urbanization evolution trends in different types of MRARs. The main findings we obtained are as follows. (1) Environmental carrying capacity has a restrictive effect on the new urbanization in MRARs. (2) Socioeconomic foundations have a fundamental impact on the new urbanization in MRARs. (3) The policy intensity of “people-oriented” has an important influence on the new urbanization in MRARs. (4) Different types of MRARs greatly vary with new urbanization trends. Finally, we proposed some policy recommendations to effectively promote the new urbanization in MRARs.
在中国矿产资源丰富地区科学推进新型城镇化,不仅是能源和资源安全的保障,而且对实现可持续发展具有重要意义。然而,由于矿产资源的特殊性,中国矿产资源富集区的新型城镇化面临着一系列困难。因此,为了确定适合不同新型城镇化路径的 MRARs 政策重点,本研究通过进化博弈分析来寻找 MRARs 的城镇化演化趋势。首先,我们建立了一个非对称进化博弈模型来研究 MRARs 中城乡居民的策略选择过程。其次,使用 MATLAB 进行数值模拟,发现不同类型 MRARs 的城市化演化趋势。主要结论如下(1)环境承载力对 MRARs 的新型城市化具有限制作用。(2)社会经济基础对 MRARs 的新型城镇化具有根本性影响。(3)"以人为本 "的政策力度对 MRARs 的新型城镇化具有重要影响。(4)不同类型的 MRARs 在新型城镇化趋势上存在较大差异。最后,我们提出了一些有效推进 MRARs 地区新型城镇化的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering the features of rhodium metabolism in China during 2011–2022 揭示 2011-2022 年中国铑代谢的特点
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105378
Jinze Li , Yong Geng , Sijie Liu , Chen Zhong , Wang Gu
Rhodium has unique properties, such as high-temperature oxidation resistance and catalytic activity, making it irreplaceable in various domains such as automobile exhaust purification and chemical production. Given its pivotal role in facilitating China's green and low-carbon transition and the advancement of high-tech industries, rhodium has become a strategic resource. However, China heavily relies on importing rhodium to meet its domestic demand due to its limited rhodium reserve. This study employs dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) to trace the rhodium flows throughout its entire life cycle in China for the period of 2011–2022 so that the key features of rhodium metabolism can be uncovered, including rhodium production, consumption, trade, in-use stock, and recycling. Our results show that the domestic demand for rhodium increased by 2.18 times during this study period. The cumulative rhodium consumption reached 82,890 kg, of which automobile three-way catalysts (TWCs) accounted for 71.85% of the total rhodium consumption, followed by the chemical sector (13.64%) and the glass sector (8.95%). China's accumulative imported rhodium reached 77,447 kg, meaning an import reliance rate (IRR) of 91.81%. The total recycled rhodium reached 21,184 kg, meaning a recycling rate (RR) of 58.63%. These findings reflect that China is facing several challenges in achieving sustainable rhodium resource management, such as a significant supply risk, and inadequate recycling. Consequently, China should establish a comprehensive rhodium recycling system and diversify its rhodium supply both domestically and internationally to ensure the sustainable supply of rhodium resources.
铑具有耐高温氧化、催化活性等独特性能,在汽车尾气净化、化工生产等多个领域具有不可替代的作用。鉴于铑在促进中国绿色低碳转型和高科技产业发展中的关键作用,铑已成为一种战略资源。然而,由于铑储量有限,中国严重依赖进口铑来满足国内需求。本研究采用动态物质流分析法(DMFA),对 2011-2022 年中国铑的整个生命周期的流动进行了追踪,从而揭示了铑代谢的主要特征,包括铑的生产、消费、贸易、在用库存和回收。研究结果表明,铑的国内需求量在研究期间增长了 2.18 倍。其中,汽车三元催化器(TWC)的铑消费量占总消费量的 71.85%,其次是化工行业(13.64%)和玻璃行业(8.95%)。中国累计进口铑达 77,447 千克,进口依赖率(IRR)为 91.81%。铑的回收总量为 21 184 千克,回收率为 58.63%。这些调查结果表明,中国在实现铑资源可持续管理方面面临着一些挑战,如供应风险大、回收不足等。因此,中国应建立完善的铑回收体系,并实现国内外铑供应的多元化,以确保铑资源的可持续供应。
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引用次数: 0
A predictive model for the security and stability of the lithium-ion battery industry chain based on price modal combinations 基于价格模式组合的锂离子电池产业链安全与稳定预测模型
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105372
Li Jian-fei , Peng Han , Luo Xiao-yu
Prices act as crucial market signals within industrial chains, and the smooth transmission of prices has significantly impacts on the safety and stability of the entire chain. This paper considers the lithium-ion battery industry chain as a complex system and uses prices as modal signals to construct an FEEMD-NAR-HMM industrial chain safety and stability prediction model. The research findings are as follows: (1) The lithium-ion industry chain exhibits a typical "price-stability" dissipative structure, where the consistency of price fluctuations within the industry chain has a significant impact on its overall safety and stability. (2) When products at different stages of the lithium-ion industry chain experience simultaneous price increases or decreases, the safety and stability of the industry chain are at a high level. When the transmission smoothness of price fluctuations across different stages of the lithium-ion industry chain is low, the safety and stability of the industry chain are at a low level. (3) In the near future, the lithium-ion industry chain will continue to exposed to volatility risks. The government should implement macroeconomic control measures to stabilize the lithium-ion market and increase research investment in lithium resource recycling to prevent a crisis of lithium resource shortages.
价格是产业链中至关重要的市场信号,价格的平稳传递对整个产业链的安全性和稳定性具有重要影响。本文将锂离子电池产业链视为一个复杂系统,以价格为模态信号,构建了 FEEMD-NAR-HMM 产业链安全与稳定性预测模型。研究结论如下:(1)锂电产业链呈现典型的 "价格-稳定性 "耗散结构,产业链内部价格波动的一致性对其整体安全性和稳定性具有重要影响。(2)当锂电产业链不同阶段的产品同时出现价格上涨或下跌时,产业链的安全性和稳定性处于较高水平。当锂电产业链不同阶段价格波动的传导平滑度较低时,产业链的安全性和稳定性处于较低水平。(3)短期内,锂电产业链仍将面临波动风险。政府应实施宏观调控措施,稳定锂电市场,加大锂资源循环利用的研究投入,防止出现锂资源短缺危机。
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引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risks and crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from machine learning 地缘政治风险与原油期货波动性:来自机器学习的证据
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105374
Hongwei Zhang , Wentao Wang , Zibo Niu
This paper conducts a dynamic analysis of the forecasting impact of categorical geopolitical risks on crude oil futures volatility, employing the Transformer-based neural network. Empirical results indicate geopolitical risk linked to war and terrorism consistently exerts the most significant impact across all forecast horizons. Our investigation further reveals that the impact of different subcategories of geopolitical risk on crude oil futures volatility exhibits noteworthy time-varying characteristics. Furthermore, the predictive impact of geopolitical risk on crude oil futures volatility exhibits asymmetry across distinct economic states. In short-term forecasts, the incremental predictive information derived from geopolitical risks primarily concentrated in the economic expansion, gradually transitioning towards economic recession as the forecast horizon extends. More importantly, our research emphasizes that the predictive information derived from geopolitical risks enhances the precision of crude oil futures volatility forecasts and delivers significant economic benefits to investors by integrating valuable information into their portfolio strategies.
本文采用基于 Transformer 的神经网络,对分类地缘政治风险对原油期货波动性的预测影响进行了动态分析。实证结果表明,与战争和恐怖主义相关的地缘政治风险在所有预测期限内始终产生最显著的影响。我们的研究进一步揭示出,地缘政治风险的不同子类别对原油期货波动性的影响表现出值得注意的时变特征。此外,地缘政治风险对原油期货波动性的预测影响在不同的经济状态下表现出不对称性。在短期预测中,地缘政治风险带来的增量预测信息主要集中在经济扩张期,随着预测期限的延长逐渐向经济衰退期过渡。更重要的是,我们的研究强调,地缘政治风险带来的预测信息提高了原油期货波动率预测的精确度,并通过将有价值的信息整合到投资者的投资组合策略中,为投资者带来了显著的经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
Developing the human reliability analysis model tailored for intelligent coal mining face system 针对智能采煤工作面系统开发人体可靠性分析模型
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105375
Yan Zhang , Ninghao Sun , Xiangyang Hu , Ruipeng Tong
The still severe situation of work safety and the increasingly prominent issue of labor shortage are currently the key factors affecting the safety and sustainable development of coal industry. To fundamentally solve these problems, the construction of intelligent coal mines has become an inevitable trend. In the current construction context, intelligent coal mining operations rely more on human-system interaction, bringing new human error risks. The applicable human reliability analysis (HRA) method can effectively identify and evaluate the risks, and further improve the safety level of intelligent coal mines. However, research on HRA for intelligent coal mines is still in early stages, lacking applicable theoretical basis and methodological system. To make up for the limitations, focusing on the research object of intelligent coal mining face (ICMF) system, firstly, a cognitive model suitable for ICMF operations was constructed combining with the system structure and task characteristics, laying a cognitive theoretical foundation for initiating research on human safety of intelligent coal mines. Based on this, the ICMF-HRA variables including general human failure event (HFE), seven main crew functions (MCFs), eighteen crew activity primitives (CAPs), twenty-five crew failure modes (CFMs), and twenty-nine performance influencing factors (PIFs), and three qualitative dependency structures (i.e., HFE-MCF-CAP-CFM, CFM-PIF, and PIF-PIF) and six quantitative probability relationships between them are developed using fuzzy Bayesian network, which constitutes the ICMF-HRA model. Moreover, the application of this model is elaborated combining communication interruption event, confirming the availability and adaptability of this model. The ICMF-HRA model fills the HRA research gap of intelligent coal mines and can be used for predictive and retrospective analysis, providing decision support for risk prevention and disposal. This study is expected to establish theoretical basis and provide practical tool for improving human safety level of intelligent coal mines, further promoting the safety and sustainable development of coal industry.
当前,安全生产形势依然严峻,用工荒问题日益突出,是影响煤炭工业安全生产和可持续发展的关键因素。要从根本上解决这些问题,建设智能化煤矿已成为必然趋势。在当前的建设背景下,智能化煤矿的运营更依赖于人与系统的交互,带来了新的人为错误风险。适用的人为可靠性分析(HRA)方法可以有效识别和评估风险,进一步提高智能煤矿的安全水平。然而,针对智能煤矿的人的可靠性分析研究尚处于初级阶段,缺乏适用的理论基础和方法体系。为弥补上述局限,以智能采煤工作面(ICMF)系统为研究对象,首先结合系统结构和任务特点,构建了适合 ICMF 操作的认知模型,为启动智能煤矿人的安全研究奠定了认知理论基础。在此基础上,提出了 ICMF-HRA 变量,包括一般人为失效事件(HFE)、七种主要乘员功能(MCF)、十八种乘员活动基元(CAP)、二十五种乘员失效模式(CFM)、二十九种性能影响因素(PIF),以及三种定性依赖结构(即:HFE-MCF-CAP-CIF-PIF)、利用模糊贝叶斯网络建立了三种定性依赖结构(即 HFE-MCF-CAP-CFM、CFM-PIF 和 PIF-PIF)以及它们之间的六种定量概率关系,从而构成了 ICMF-HRA 模型。此外,结合通信中断事件阐述了该模型的应用,证实了该模型的可用性和适应性。ICMF-HRA 模型填补了智能煤矿 HRA 研究的空白,可用于预测和回顾分析,为风险防范和处置提供决策支持。本研究有望为提高智能煤矿的人的安全水平奠定理论基础,提供实用工具,进一步促进煤炭工业的安全与可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of global product design on supply chain efficiency and natural resources management 全球产品设计对供应链效率和自然资源管理的影响
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105366
Shanming Xu , Li Xu , Ying Liu
The significance of global product design as a primary factor in determining supply chain efficiency and natural resource management. This study examines the impact of global product design changes on process and supply chain practices. Specifically, it seeks to understand in promoting sustainable practices across global supply chains. This study, utilizes the fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods to evaluate the criteria, sub-criteria, and various significant opportunities influencing sustainable product design and supply chain management. The fuzzy AHP method is used to assess the key criteria and their respective sub-criteria. The fuzzy TOPSIS method is used to rank the opportunities in driving sustainable practices across global supply chains. The results of fuzzy AHP show that innovation and product differentiation (C4), economic viability (C1), and supply chain efficiency (C5) are the crucial criteria. While the results of fuzzy TOPSIS present that supply chain transparency (O2) is the most suitable opportunity, followed by circular economy practices (O1) and policy advocacy and compliance (O6) in adopting global product design on supply chain efficiency and natural resources management. Thus, this study is highly relevant to the governments, industry specialists, and policymakers who aim at enhancing the dynamic business environment and sustainable development.
全球产品设计是决定供应链效率和自然资源管理的首要因素,其意义重大。本研究探讨了全球产品设计变革对流程和供应链实践的影响。具体来说,它试图了解在全球供应链中推广可持续实践的情况。本研究采用模糊层次分析法(AHP)和模糊理想解相似度排序法(TOPSIS)来评估影响可持续产品设计和供应链管理的标准、子标准和各种重要机会。模糊 AHP 方法用于评估关键标准及其各自的次级标准。采用模糊 TOPSIS 法对全球供应链中推动可持续实践的机会进行排序。模糊 AHP 的结果显示,创新和产品差异化(C4)、经济可行性(C1)和供应链效率(C5)是关键标准。而模糊 TOPSIS 的结果表明,在采用关于供应链效率和自然资源管理的全球产品设计时,供应链透明度(O2)是最合适的机会,其次是循环经济实践(O1)和政策倡导与合规(O6)。因此,本研究对政府、行业专家和旨在加强动态商业环境和可持续发展的政策制定者具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Natural resource rent, green finance, and CO2 emissions from the industrial sector 自然资源租金、绿色金融和工业部门的二氧化碳排放
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105370
Henian Zhu , Mengya Chen , Songnian Zhao
This study investigates the effect of natural resource rents and green finance on industrial sustainability in 20 OECD countries from 2010 to 2020, using the CCEMG-ARDL approach. Findings reveal that a 1% increase in green finance reduces CO2 emissions by 0.43% in the short term and 0.27% in the long term, highlighting its role in supporting environmentally friendly investments. In contrast, a 1% rise in fossil fuel rents increases CO2 emissions by 0.29% short-term and 0.05% long-term, showing the pollutive impact of fossil fuel profits. Additionally, a 1% increase in electricity usage raises CO2 emissions by 0.41% short-term and 0.16% long-term, stressing the need for cleaner energy. Industry-specific patents show limited alignment with sustainability goals. Policy measures should target resource rent management, boost green finance, and encourage sustainable practices to promote industrial greening.
本研究采用 CCEMG-ARDL 方法,研究了 2010 年至 2020 年期间自然资源租金和绿色金融对 20 个经合组织国家工业可持续性的影响。研究结果表明,绿色金融每增加 1%,二氧化碳排放量在短期内减少 0.43%,长期内减少 0.27%,这凸显了绿色金融在支持环境友好型投资方面的作用。相比之下,化石燃料租金每增加 1%,二氧化碳排放量短期增加 0.29%,长期增加 0.05%,显示了化石燃料利润的污染影响。此外,用电量增加 1%,二氧化碳排放量短期增加 0.41%,长期增加 0.16%,强调了对清洁能源的需求。特定行业专利与可持续发展目标的一致性有限。政策措施应针对资源租赁管理、促进绿色金融、鼓励可持续实践,以推动工业绿化。
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引用次数: 0
A comprehensive inventory of Australia's critical minerals: Simplifying the complexity of critical resources 澳大利亚重要矿产的全面清单:简化关键资源的复杂性
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105345
Gavin M. Mudd , Tim T. Werner , Zhehan Weng , Jane Thorne
National inventories of mineral resources invariably exclude critical minerals produced as smelter-refinery by-products due to insufficient data. This study addresses this gap through the development of a comprehensive database of Australia's critical minerals resources in mines and mineral deposits combined with extensive geochemical data analysis. We provide a description of how such a database can be constructed for any country using publicly available information and consider a range of uncertainties arising from the use of proxy data to estimate critical mineral grades. A detailed analysis of Australian critical mineral resource endowments is presented alongside a review and discussion of reporting mechanisms and transparency. Our results show that despite statistical uncertainties, data complexities and limited prior accounting, estimated Australian endowments of a range of critical metals which currently remain unreported are likely to be substantial (e.g., an additional 4.2 Mt Co). This Australian case study suggests that the global development of similar databases is likely to reveal substantially greater endowments of critical metals than previously recognised, providing confidence in the ability to simplify the previously complex assessment of critical minerals required for the modern world's technological needs.
由于数据不足,国家矿产资源清单总是不包括作为冶炼厂-精炼厂副产品生产的关键矿物。本研究通过开发澳大利亚矿山和矿床关键矿物资源综合数据库,并结合广泛的地球化学数据分析,弥补了这一空白。我们介绍了如何利用公开信息为任何国家构建这样一个数据库,并考虑了使用替代数据估算关键矿物品位所产生的一系列不确定性。在对澳大利亚关键矿产资源禀赋进行详细分析的同时,我们还对报告机制和透明度进行了回顾和讨论。我们的研究结果表明,尽管存在统计不确定性、数据复杂性和有限的先前核算,但目前仍未报告的一系列关键金属在澳大利亚的估计蕴藏量可能相当可观(例如,额外的420万吨钴)。这项澳大利亚案例研究表明,类似数据库的全球开发很可能会揭示出比以前认识到的更多的关键金属蕴藏量,从而使人们对简化现代世界技术需求所需的关键矿物的复杂评估的能力充满信心。
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引用次数: 0
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