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Uncertainty and entrepreneurship in oil-rich developing countries: Does institution matter? 石油资源丰富的发展中国家的不确定性和创业精神:制度重要吗?
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105385
Mahboubeh Jafari
This paper aims to investigate how institutional quality can influence the relationship between uncertainty and entrepreneurial activities in a sample of 20 oil-rich developing countries. The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is employed as the indicator for uncertainty. To mitigate endogeneity issues, we employ a series of panel data models estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find a higher level of WUI is negatively associated with the new business formation. Furthermore, our findings underscore the vital role of institutional quality in moderating the adverse effects of uncertainty on entrepreneurship. These results remain consistent across various measurements of institutional quality, uncertainty, and new business formation. Additionally, the estimation results confirm the existence of the oil curse hypothesis. The results of this research offer valuable insights for both policy development and management practices.
本文旨在以 20 个石油资源丰富的发展中国家为样本,研究制度质量如何影响不确定性与创业活动之间的关系。我们采用世界不确定性指数(WUI)作为不确定性指标。为减少内生性问题,我们采用了一系列面板数据模型,并使用广义矩法(GMM)进行了估计。我们发现,较高的 WUI 水平与新企业的形成呈负相关。此外,我们的研究结果还强调了制度质量在调节不确定性对创业的不利影响方面的重要作用。这些结果在不同的制度质量、不确定性和新企业形成的测量中保持一致。此外,估计结果证实了石油诅咒假说的存在。研究结果为政策制定和管理实践提供了宝贵的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of natural resource rents on global trade dynamics in RCEP: Economic and geopolitical interdependencies 自然资源租金对 RCEP 中全球贸易动态的影响:经济与地缘政治的相互依存关系
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105365
Zhang Shuo , Xi laiwang , Gao Junjun
This research analyzes the impact of natural resource revenues on global economic trends in the RCEP countries, emphasizing the importance of resource exploitation in the financial development process. The work explores complex interdependencies between resource extraction, geopolitical risk, economic environment, and trade relationships. Energy efficiency, geopolitical risk, and GDP are the control variables. These findings highlight the importance of natural resource rents, GDP, geopolitical risk, and energy conservation on the trade structure of the RCEP trading partners. Quantile regression studies show the negative effect of oil revenues on world trade, thus providing evidence of the multifaceted link between natural resource earnings and trade outcomes. The findings underscore the significance of policymakers and businesses understanding these interrelated links and their implications for global trade relations. The report offers policy directions for RCEP countries to foster sustainable economic development and enhance export competitiveness. These recommendations aim to further the resource sector's growth, financial infrastructure, and managing geopolitical risks.
本研究分析了自然资源收入对 RCEP 国家全球经济趋势的影响,强调了资源开采在金融发展过程中的重要性。研究探讨了资源开采、地缘政治风险、经济环境和贸易关系之间复杂的相互依存关系。能源效率、地缘政治风险和国内生产总值是控制变量。这些研究结果凸显了自然资源租金、国内生产总值、地缘政治风险和能源保护对 RCEP 贸易伙伴贸易结构的重要性。量子回归研究表明,石油收入对世界贸易有负面影响,从而证明了自然资源收入与贸易结果之间的多方面联系。研究结果强调了决策者和企业了解这些相互关联的联系及其对全球贸易关系的影响的重要性。报告为 RCEP 国家提供了促进可持续经济发展和提高出口竞争力的政策方向。这些建议旨在促进资源部门的增长、金融基础设施和管理地缘政治风险。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric relationship between crude oil price and remittance inflows in a small island economy: Evidence from non-linear ARDL approach 小岛屿经济体中原油价格与汇款流入量之间的不对称关系:非线性 ARDL 方法提供的证据
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105398
Kirtiranjan Das , Manoranjan Sahoo , Sarbeswar Mohanty
Sri Lanka's economy heavily depends on remittance inflows to finance its import of essential and intermediate goods. A decline in remittances could severely limit the country's import capacity, affecting overall economic growth and development. This study investigates the impact of crude oil prices on Sri Lankan remittance inflows from 1980 to 2020, while accounting for per capita GDP, financial development, and exchange rates as additional explanatory variables. Employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the analysis reveals significant asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on remittance inflows. In the short run, positive oil price shocks lead to increased remittance inflows, whereas negative shocks reduce them. However, in the long run, both positive and negative oil price shocks have an adverse impact on remittance inflows. Furthermore, changes in per capita GDP, financial development, and exchange rates also play a crucial role in influencing remittance inflows. The findings highlight Sri Lanka's vulnerability to global oil market fluctuations and suggest policy measures to mitigate these risks. Key recommendations include diversifying labor export markets, enhancing financial infrastructure, and reducing dependence on remittance inflows to sustain import capacity and promote long-term economic resilience.
斯里兰卡的经济在很大程度上依赖于汇款流入,为进口必需品和中间产品提供资金。汇款减少会严重限制该国的进口能力,影响整体经济增长和发展。本研究探讨了 1980 年至 2020 年原油价格对斯里兰卡汇款流入的影响,同时将人均 GDP、金融发展和汇率作为额外的解释变量。分析采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型,揭示了石油价格冲击对汇款流入的显著非对称影响。在短期内,石油价格的正向冲击会导致汇款流入量增加,而负向冲击则会减少汇款流入量。然而,从长期来看,石油价格的正向和负向冲击都会对汇款流入产生不利影响。此外,人均国内生产总值、金融发展和汇率的变化也对汇款流入量产生重要影响。研究结果凸显了斯里兰卡易受全球石油市场波动影响的脆弱性,并提出了降低这些风险的政策措施。主要建议包括劳动力出口市场多样化、加强金融基础设施、减少对汇款流入的依赖,以维持进口能力并促进长期经济恢复力。
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引用次数: 0
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105390
Etienne Nel
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引用次数: 0
Institutions as a determinant of FDI and the role of natural resources 制度是外国直接投资的决定因素和自然资源的作用
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105367
Jonathan Bothner
This study examines the link between institutional quality and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries. The link is investigated at different levels of host countries’ natural resource endowment. Weak institutions can be expected to attract FDI in natural resource abundant countries since they facilitate rent seeking behavior which is commonly thought to be prevalent in the natural resources sector. However, weak institutions also increase uncertainty, thus discouraging investments involving initial sunk costs as large as they commonly are in the natural resources sector. The aim of this study is to empirically assess how natural resource endowment moderates the effect of institutions on FDI. Using data on 117 developing and emerging countries over the time period 1996–2019, I estimate a dynamic panel model using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. I find a positive effect of institutional quality on FDI inflows only for countries with relatively high levels of natural resource endowment. The results are significant as they provide evidence for a narrative which is inconsistent with the results of earlier empirical research. They indicate that a higher natural resource endowment increases the importance of institutional quality as a determinant of FDI.
本研究探讨了制度质量与流向发展中国家的外国直接投资(FDI)之间的联系。在东道国自然资源禀赋的不同水平上对这种联系进行了研究。在自然资源丰富的国家,薄弱的制度有望吸引外国直接投资,因为这些制度有利于寻租行为,而寻租行为通常被认为在自然资源领域十分普遍。然而,薄弱的制度也会增加不确定性,从而阻碍涉及初始沉没成本的投资,而自然资源部门通常都会涉及巨大的初始沉没成本。本研究旨在通过经验评估自然资源禀赋如何调节制度对外国直接投资的影响。利用 1996-2019 年期间 117 个发展中国家和新兴国家的数据,我使用系统广义矩方法(GMM)估计器估计了一个动态面板模型。我发现,只有自然资源禀赋水平相对较高的国家,制度质量才会对外国直接投资流入产生积极影响。这些结果意义重大,因为它们为一种与早期实证研究结果不一致的说法提供了证据。它们表明,自然资源禀赋越高,制度质量作为外国直接投资决定因素的重要性就越大。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping cerium flows in China: A dynamic material flow analysis 绘制中国的铈流图:动态物质流分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105386
Xueping Tan , Yiran Zhong , Ziyi Wang , Yong Geng , Shijiang Xiao , Yuquan Zhang , Junxiang Huang
Cerium (Ce) is the most abundant and widely used rare earth element (REE). However, its metabolism patterns and domestic demand determinants in both traditional and emerging fields remain unknown in China. This study aims to account for the cerium flows and stocks in China from 2011 to 2020 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis method. Also, the key factors that determine the final domestic demands for cerium are uncovered by using panel regression models. The results show that: (1) there is a growing surplus of Ce-containing primary products in China, which are largely imported from Malaysia and exported to Japan and the United States; (2) cerium is mainly used in traditional fields, but its consumption in both high-tech and green fields is growing rapidly. Technological progress and cerium oxide prices are determinants of cerium final demands in both traditional and emerging fields, but GDP and cerium production only affect the demands for traditional applications significantly; and (3) the in-use stocks and the End-of-Life flows of cerium are fast-growing, and the secondary cerium resource can be mostly collected from polishing powders, automobile catalysts, NiMH batteries, glass additives, and lamps. Based on these major findings and the Chinese realities, this study further proposes several policy recommendations to promote sustainable cerium resource management.
铈(Ce)是含量最高、用途最广的稀土元素(REE)。然而,中国在传统领域和新兴领域的新陈代谢模式和国内需求决定因素仍不为人知。本研究旨在采用动态物质流分析方法,对 2011 年至 2020 年中国的铈流量和存量进行核算。同时,利用面板回归模型揭示了决定国内铈最终需求的关键因素。结果表明(1)中国的含铈初级产品过剩日益严重,这些产品主要从马来西亚进口,并出口到日本和美国;(2)铈主要用于传统领域,但其在高科技和绿色领域的消费增长迅速。技术进步和氧化铈价格是铈在传统领域和新兴领域最终需求的决定因素,但 GDP 和铈产量仅对传统应用领域的需求有显著影响;(3) 铈的在用库存和报废流量快速增长,二次铈资源主要可从抛光粉、汽车催化剂、镍氢电池、玻璃添加剂和灯具中收集。基于这些主要发现和中国的实际情况,本研究进一步提出了若干政策建议,以促进铈资源的可持续管理。
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引用次数: 0
Sustaining the mining industry through the lens of corporate social responsibility: A review research 从企业社会责任的角度看采矿业的可持续发展:研究综述
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105387
Sanchita Bansal , Shifali Singh , Priya Nangia , Nisha Chanaliya , Dariusz Sala
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引用次数: 0
Do natural resources influence E-government in developing countries? Effects and transmission channels 自然资源会影响发展中国家的电子政务吗?影响和传播渠道
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105349
Foudjo Suzie Imelda , Ndikeu Njoya Nabil Aman , Keneck-Massil Joseph
E-government has taken a prominent place in the political and economical debate. Despite the vast non-consensual literature, on the effects of natural resources, very little is known about the effects of these resources on the development of e-government. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the effect of natural resources on the development of e-government in a panel of 121 developing countries over the period 2003–2021. Through several empirical approaches, our results show that, on average, natural resource rents negatively affect the development of e-government. Distinguishing between different types of natural resources, we note that the negative effect of natural resources on the development of e-government remains, and the magnitude is more persistent for forestry, gas and oil rents. Furthermore, the mediation analysis suggests that the negative effect of natural resources on the development of e-government is influenced by trust in institutions, the size of the informal sector, corruption, and the quality of telecommunications infrastructures.
电子政务在政治和经济辩论中占据了重要位置。尽管有大量关于自然资源影响的非共识性文献,但人们对这些资源对电子政务发展的影响知之甚少。本研究旨在通过分析 2003-2021 年间 121 个发展中国家的自然资源对电子政务发展的影响来填补这一空白。通过几种实证方法,我们的研究结果表明,平均而言,自然资源租金对电子政务的发展有负面影响。区分不同类型的自然资源,我们注意到自然资源对电子政务发展的负面影响依然存在,而且林业、天然气和石油租金的负面影响程度更为持久。此外,中介分析表明,自然资源对电子政务发展的负面影响受到机构信任、非正规部门规模、腐败和电信基础设施质量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the dynamic economic impacts of oil supply disruptions on China: A case study of Malacca Strait block 估算石油供应中断对中国的动态经济影响:马六甲海峡区块案例研究
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105376
Hao Chen, Wenfeng Zhang, Xiangting Huang, Xin Wang
The intensification of geopolitical conflicts necessitates formulating economically effective coping strategies, which requires scientifically understanding the economic losses caused by oil supply disruptions and their evolutionary patterns. However, current assessment results are mostly static and cover direct losses, which are inadequate to fully support the development of disaster prevention measures. Therefore, considering the interdependence across different sectors, we employed a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model to assess the economic impacts of a 20% disruption in oil imports through the Malacca Strait, lasting for 90 days. The main findings are as follows: (1) 2% of a sector's inoperability caused by oil supply disruption will, on average, be transmitted to other sectors due to their interdependencies. (2) The disruption will result in total economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan for China, and 70% of the total economic losses were incurred within the first 30 days. (3) To cope with the adverse economic impacts of oil transport disruption in the Malacca Strait, the optimal range of China's strategic petroleum reserve is 47.91–169.55 million barrels.
地缘政治冲突的加剧要求制定经济上有效的应对战略,这就需要科学地了解石油供应中断造成的经济损失及其演变规律。然而,目前的评估结果大多是静态的,只涉及直接损失,不足以全面支持防灾措施的制定。因此,考虑到不同部门之间的相互依存关系,我们采用了动态不可操作性投入产出模型来评估马六甲海峡石油进口中断 20%(持续 90 天)的经济影响。主要结论如下(1) 石油供应中断造成的某一部门 2%的无法运营,由于相互依存关系,平均会传导到其他部门。(2) 石油供应中断将给中国造成 627 亿元的经济损失,其中 70% 的经济损失发生在最初的 30 天内。(3)为应对马六甲海峡石油运输中断带来的不利经济影响,中国战略石油储备的最佳范围为 4791-1.6955 亿桶。
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引用次数: 0
An evolutionary game analysis of new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions in China 中国矿产资源丰富地区新型城镇化的演化博弈分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105377
Lijun Zeng , Wenjing Du , Jinfeng Wang , Weichen Hong , Jinsuo Zhang
The scientific new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions (MRARs) in China is not only a guarantee for energy and resource security but also of great significance to realize strong sustainability. However, the new urbanization of MRARs in China is facing a series of difficulties due to the particularity of mineral resources. Therefore, to identify the policy foci of MRARs suitable for different new urbanization paths, this study conducts an evolutionary game analysis to find the urbanization evolution trends of MRARs. First, we established an asymmetric evolutionary game model to study the process of strategy selection between rural and urban residents in MRARs. Second, MATLAB was used to conduct numerical simulation to find the urbanization evolution trends in different types of MRARs. The main findings we obtained are as follows. (1) Environmental carrying capacity has a restrictive effect on the new urbanization in MRARs. (2) Socioeconomic foundations have a fundamental impact on the new urbanization in MRARs. (3) The policy intensity of “people-oriented” has an important influence on the new urbanization in MRARs. (4) Different types of MRARs greatly vary with new urbanization trends. Finally, we proposed some policy recommendations to effectively promote the new urbanization in MRARs.
在中国矿产资源丰富地区科学推进新型城镇化,不仅是能源和资源安全的保障,而且对实现可持续发展具有重要意义。然而,由于矿产资源的特殊性,中国矿产资源富集区的新型城镇化面临着一系列困难。因此,为了确定适合不同新型城镇化路径的 MRARs 政策重点,本研究通过进化博弈分析来寻找 MRARs 的城镇化演化趋势。首先,我们建立了一个非对称进化博弈模型来研究 MRARs 中城乡居民的策略选择过程。其次,使用 MATLAB 进行数值模拟,发现不同类型 MRARs 的城市化演化趋势。主要结论如下(1)环境承载力对 MRARs 的新型城市化具有限制作用。(2)社会经济基础对 MRARs 的新型城镇化具有根本性影响。(3)"以人为本 "的政策力度对 MRARs 的新型城镇化具有重要影响。(4)不同类型的 MRARs 在新型城镇化趋势上存在较大差异。最后,我们提出了一些有效推进 MRARs 地区新型城镇化的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
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