Resources Policy最新文献_第4页

Formalization from above, resistance from below: Voices of struggle and survival in Ghana's contested artisanal and small-scale mining sector 自上而下的正规化，自下而上的抵抗：加纳有争议的手工和小规模采矿部门的斗争和生存之声

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105847

Seiba Issifu, Max D. Woodworth

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)—a labor-intensive, low-tech form of mineral extraction and processing—has emerged as a critical livelihood for millions of households in Ghana since 1989, when the Small-Scale Mining Law (PNDL 218) was passed to lift the ban on it. There is consensus in the academic and policy discourses that formalization of ASM holds the potential to tackle the chronic illegality, informality, and environmental degradation in the sector while transforming the economy of mineral-rich communities. Applying a political ecology framework, this paper critically examines how Ghana's formalization initiatives and enforcement regimes marginalize and exclude ASM operators, causing them to respond with counter practices of resistance and subversion. The paper is based on interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with ASM operators in the Amansie South District as well as a critical review of relevant legal documents relating to mining in Ghana. The paper argues that ASM operators are not passive subjects of exclusionary mineral governance and militarized enforcement that put their livelihoods at risk. Rather they are active, resilient, and creative actors who resist, adapt to, and negotiate survival in a contested mining space. The findings highlight the need for a governance framework that departs from centralized legislation and militarized enforcement to one that considers participatory, culturally grounded, and locally legitimate approaches to formalization, and which aligns with the principles of inclusive development and justice.

自1989年通过《小规模采矿法》（PNDL 218）解除禁令以来，手工和小规模采矿（ASM）——一种劳动密集型、低技术含量的矿物开采和加工形式——已成为加纳数百万家庭的重要生计。在学术和政策论述中有一个共识，即ASM的正规化具有解决该部门长期非法、非正式和环境退化的潜力，同时改变矿产丰富社区的经济。运用政治生态框架，本文批判性地考察了加纳的正规化倡议和执法制度如何边缘化和排斥ASM运营商，导致他们以抵抗和颠覆的反实践做出回应。本文基于对Amansie南区ASM运营商的访谈和焦点小组讨论（fgd），以及对加纳采矿相关法律文件的批判性审查。该论文认为，ASM运营商不是排他性矿产治理和军事化执法的被动主体，这将使他们的生计面临风险。相反，他们是积极的、有弹性的、有创造力的行动者，他们抵制、适应并在竞争激烈的采矿空间中生存。研究结果强调，需要建立一个治理框架，从集中式立法和军事化执法转向考虑参与性、文化基础和地方合法的正规化方法，并与包容性发展和正义原则保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

A structured approach to assessing market concentration and competition in the aggregate sector: Insights from Israel 评估总部门市场集中度和竞争的结构化方法：来自以色列的见解

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105827

Avri Eitan , Shira Bukchin-Peles

This study presents a structured methodology for assessing market concentration in the aggregates sector, using Israel as a case to illustrate how spatial, institutional, and ownership dynamics interact to shape competitive outcomes. It analyzes how geographic constraints, vertical integration, and regulatory policies shape competition and pricing dynamics in the non-energy extractive sector. Drawing on a unique transaction-level dataset, the findings reveal substantial market concentration reinforced by quarry ownership patterns and high transportation costs, particularly in regions with limited supplier access. Cross-ownership between quarries and downstream concrete plants further restricts competition, as integrated firms prioritize internal supply even when it entails higher logistics costs. The study identifies structural inefficiencies and regional disparities that weaken competitive pressures and increase costs in the construction supply chain. Policy recommendations include expanding quarry supply, revising tender procedures, and divesting cross-owned quarries to foster competition. Beyond Israel, the framework may be replicable in other contexts where comparable spatial, ownership, and transaction-level data exist, but its applicability is contingent on the availability of such data and regulatory conditions. The study contributes to resource policy by offering tools for improving competition, enhancing efficiency, and guiding sustainable development in mineral-based industries.

本研究提出了一种评估总体行业市场集中度的结构化方法，并以以色列为例说明空间、制度和所有权动态如何相互作用以形成竞争结果。它分析了地理限制、垂直整合和监管政策如何影响非能源采掘部门的竞争和定价动态。利用独特的交易级数据集，研究结果显示，采石场所有权模式和高运输成本强化了大量的市场集中度，特别是在供应商准入有限的地区。采石场和下游水泥厂之间的交叉所有权进一步限制了竞争，因为整合后的公司优先考虑内部供应，即使这需要更高的物流成本。该研究指出，结构性效率低下和地区差异削弱了建筑供应链的竞争压力，增加了成本。政策建议包括扩大采石场供应、修订招标程序，以及剥离交叉拥有的采石场以促进竞争。在以色列之外，该框架可以复制到其他存在可比较的空间、所有权和交易级数据的环境中，但其适用性取决于此类数据的可用性和监管条件。这项研究为改善竞争、提高效率和指导矿物工业的可持续发展提供了工具，有助于制定资源政策。

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引用次数: 0

Is the resource curse persistent? Dynamic causality evidence from resource-dependent economies 资源诅咒是否持续存在？来自资源依赖型经济体的动态因果关系证据

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105855

Mikail Pehli̇van

This study examines the dynamic relationship between natural resource rents and economic growth in ten resource-dependent economies—Algeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—over the period 1970–2021. Using a bootstrap panel causality test combined with a rolling-window framework, the analysis captures both the direction and time variation of predictive linkages within the Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH). The results indicate that natural resource rents exhibit episodic and heterogeneous predictive relevance for growth across countries and periods, rather than a stable longrun effect. Positive predictive episodes are more frequently observed in Qatar, Indonesia, and Egypt, while Algeria, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia display more recurrent adverse episodes. Kuwait and Oman show largely neutral patterns, consistent with limited sensitivity to rent fluctuations. Overall, the findings support a conditional and time-dependent interpretation of the resource curse, emphasizing that the relevance of resource rents for growth varies across historical phases and macroeconomic contexts. The study highlights the importance of accounting for temporal heterogeneity when assessing the resource–growth nexus, rather than relying solely on full-sample estimates.

本研究考察了1970-2021年间，阿尔及利亚、刚果民主共和国、埃及、加纳、印度尼西亚、科威特、马来西亚、阿曼、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯等10个资源依赖型经济体的自然资源租金与经济增长之间的动态关系。使用自举面板因果检验结合滚动窗口框架，分析捕获了资源诅咒假设（RCH）中预测联系的方向和时间变化。结果表明，自然资源租金对不同国家和时期的经济增长表现出偶然性和异质性的预测相关性，而不是稳定的长期效应。阳性预测发作在卡塔尔、印度尼西亚和埃及更为常见，而阿尔及利亚、马来西亚和沙特阿拉伯则表现出更多的复发性不良发作。科威特和阿曼表现出基本中立的模式，符合对租金波动的有限敏感性。总体而言，研究结果支持对资源诅咒的条件和时间依赖性解释，强调资源租金与增长的相关性因历史阶段和宏观经济背景而异。该研究强调了在评估资源增长关系时考虑时间异质性的重要性，而不是仅仅依靠全样本估计。

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引用次数: 0

Nature-positive rare earth governance: Japan's strategy in a China-dominated system 自然积极的稀土治理：中国主导体系下的日本战略

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105852

Qinxue Wang

Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical to decarbonization and digital infrastructure, yet their supply chains exhibit pronounced structural asymmetry and highly uneven environmental footprints, with China controlling roughly 69 % of global mine output and around 85–90 % of refining capacity. This article reviews Japan's rare earth security strategy as a resource-poor but technology-intensive economy along three axes: (1) the geological potential, environmental trade-offs, and realistic development role of deep-sea REY-rich mud within Japan's exclusive economic zone, especially deposits around Minamitorishima Island; (2) the structural divergence between China's integrated, volume-oriented “mine-to-magnet” system and Japan's specialization in high-purity, high-value segments; and (3) portfolio diversification through Australian and Southeast Asian partnerships, domestic recycling, and governance tools oriented toward ESG and nature-positive outcomes. Methodologically, the paper employs an exploratory three-scenario framework for 2030–2035 (conservative, central, ambitious). Rather than a formal quantitative model, these scenarios serve as heuristic tools, informed by recent USGS and IEA projections, to examine how non-Chinese capacity expansion and policy interventions could reshape Japan's supply security. The analysis shows that, although Minamitorishima Island's deep-sea deposits hold significant resource potential regarding heavy REEs such as Dy and Tb, substantial techno-economic hurdles (costs >50 USD/kg) mean they function primarily as a high-cost strategic reserve for extreme contingencies rather than a commercially competitive substitute. Japan's comparative advantage instead lies in high-purity separation, heavy-rare-earth-lean magnet design, and advanced circularity. In the central scenario, China's share of global mining moderates to around 50–55 % by 2035, allowing Japan to move towards a diversified supply matrix. The findings suggest that resilience for resource-poor economies is achieved not by replicating China's scale, but by combining diversification with reduced environmental intensity, and by embedding nature-positive principles—contingent upon aggressive policy support for circularity and traceability—into supply-chain governance.

稀土元素（ree）对脱碳和数字基础设施至关重要，但其供应链表现出明显的结构不对称和高度不均匀的环境足迹，中国控制着全球约69%的矿山产量和约85 - 90%的炼油能力。本文从三个方面综述了资源贫乏但技术密集型的日本稀土安全战略：(1)日本专属经济区内，特别是南岛附近的深海富稀土泥的地质潜力、环境权衡和现实开发作用；(2)中国以体量为导向的一体化“矿转磁”体系与日本在高纯度、高价值细分领域的专业化体系存在结构性差异；(3)通过澳大利亚和东南亚伙伴关系、国内回收以及面向ESG和自然积极成果的治理工具实现投资组合多元化。在方法上，本文采用了一个探索性的2030-2035年三情景框架（保守、中心、雄心）。这些情景不是一个正式的定量模型，而是作为启发式工具，根据美国地质勘探局和国际能源署最近的预测，来研究非中国的产能扩张和政策干预如何重塑日本的供应安全。分析表明，尽管南岛的深海矿床在镝和铽等重稀土元素方面具有巨大的资源潜力，但巨大的技术经济障碍（成本50美元/公斤）意味着它们主要是作为极端突发事件的高成本战略储备，而不是具有商业竞争力的替代品。相反，日本的比较优势在于高纯度分离、重稀土贫磁铁设计和先进的循环。在中心情景中，到2035年，中国在全球矿业中的份额将放缓至50 - 55%左右，使日本能够走向多元化的供应矩阵。研究结果表明，资源匮乏经济体的弹性不是通过复制中国的规模来实现的，而是通过将多样化与降低环境强度相结合，并将自然积极原则（取决于对循环和可追溯性的积极政策支持）纳入供应链治理。

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引用次数: 0

Lithium extraction from mining and mineral processing wastes 从采矿和矿物加工废料中提取锂

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105790

Lucie Bartoňová , Helena Raclavská , Barbora Švédová

Due to increased demand on energy storage sector and limited worldwide reserves of lithium, sustainable and reliable sources of this critical metal are being sought. Mining and mineral-processing wastes remain one of world's largest waste streams and proper management of these wastes provides multiple benefits – saving natural resources, reducing supply risk and enhancing environmental performance. Therefore, in terms of their possible use as a cheap and available source of Li (and other valuable elements), the review paper evaluates various mining, industrial and mineral-processing wastes – waste aluminosilicates (including B clays), bauxite processing residues (including red mud or overhaul slag), coal gangue and coal ash, Sn-W clay residues and other wastes (e.g., rare earth molten salt electrolysis slag). The paper discusses physical, chemical and biotechnological methods used for Li extraction from these materials and documents that efficient extraction is technically feasible. To enhance the economic viability, co-extraction of Li and other critical elements (REE, Al, Rb, Cs, Ge, Ga, V, etc.) is evaluated as well. In addition to technologic and economic implications, overall framing of Li extraction from secondary sources in the context of environmental and social sustainability is discussed as well.

由于储能行业的需求增加和全球锂储量有限，人们正在寻求这种关键金属的可持续和可靠来源。采矿和矿物加工废物仍然是世界上最大的废物流之一，对这些废物进行适当管理可带来多重好处- -节约自然资源、减少供应风险和提高环境绩效。因此，就其作为Li（和其他有价值元素）的廉价和可用来源的可能性而言，本文综述了各种采矿，工业和矿物加工废物-废铝硅酸盐（包括B粘土），铝土矿加工残留物（包括赤泥或大修渣），煤矸石和煤灰，锡钨粘土残留物和其他废物（例如稀土熔盐电解渣）。本文讨论了从这些材料和文献中提取锂的物理、化学和生物技术方法，认为高效提取在技术上是可行的。为了提高经济可行性，还对Li和其他关键元素（REE、Al、Rb、Cs、Ge、Ga、V等）的共萃取进行了评价。除了技术和经济影响外，本文还讨论了在环境和社会可持续性背景下从二手资源中提取锂的总体框架。

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引用次数: 0

The long-run price versus the price in the long term for mineral and energy commodities 长期价格相对于矿物和能源商品的长期价格

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105822

Juan Ignacio Guzmán

Long-term price assumptions for mineral and energy commodities underpin multi-billion-dollar investment decisions and resource policies, yet the industry's standard metric – the long-run price – is often misused as a forecast rather than what it truly represents: a static equilibrium benchmark. This paper clarifies the crucial distinction between the long-run price (a cost-based competitive equilibrium level) and the price in the long term (an expected, stochastic path of future market prices), showing how conflating the two can lead to systematic planning errors. Through a historical review and a detailed copper case study, we document persistent multi-year deviations of actual prices from cost-derived incentive price levels, driven by investment lags, boom–bust cycles, policy shocks, and technological change. We then propose a more robust conceptual framework for long-term price estimation under uncertainty. The framework retains the supply-cost “incentive price” as an anchor but embeds it within a dynamic model that incorporates: (1) probabilistic price trajectories (reflecting volatility and cyclical mean reversion), (2) real-options-based investment triggers that exceed simple breakeven levels, and (3) a second anchor – a very long-run price (VLRP) – to capture evolving structural forces like resource depletion, innovation, and substitution. By linking the mid-horizon long-run price to this distant-horizon VLRP, we generate internally consistent price scenarios rather than a single-point forecast. This risk-aware approach yields actionable guidelines for both firms and policymakers. Mining companies can make better investment timing and hedging decisions, while governments can design more adaptive policies (e.g., sliding-scale royalties, strategic reserves) to avoid procyclical pitfalls. Overall, the paper's contribution is conceptual although practical recommendations are made for its application. The paper bridges the gap between static equilibrium theory and real-world price dynamics, introduces the VLRP concept as a moving long-term anchor, and demonstrates how incorporating uncertainty and flexibility can improve long-term commodity price planning for both industry and policy.

矿产和能源大宗商品的长期价格假设支撑着数十亿美元的投资决策和资源政策，但该行业的标准指标——长期价格——经常被误用为一种预测，而不是它真正代表的：一个静态平衡基准。本文阐明了长期价格（基于成本的竞争均衡水平）和长期价格（未来市场价格的预期随机路径）之间的关键区别，展示了将两者混为一谈是如何导致系统性规划错误的。通过历史回顾和详细的铜案例研究，我们记录了在投资滞后、盛衰周期、政策冲击和技术变革的驱动下，实际价格与成本衍生的激励价格水平之间持续多年的偏差。然后，我们提出了一个更稳健的概念框架，用于不确定性下的长期价格估计。该框架保留了供给成本“激励价格”作为锚，但将其嵌入到一个动态模型中，该模型包含：(1)概率价格轨迹（反映波动性和周期性均值回归），(2)基于实物期权的超过简单盈亏平衡水平的投资触发因素，以及(3)第二个锚——非常长期价格（VLRP）——以捕捉不断变化的结构性力量，如资源枯竭、创新和替代。通过将中期长期价格与远期VLRP联系起来，我们产生了内部一致的价格情景，而不是单点预测。这种风险意识的方法为公司和决策者提供了可操作的指导方针。矿业公司可以做出更好的投资时机和对冲决策，而政府可以设计更具适应性的政策（例如，滑动比例特许权使用费、战略储备），以避免顺周期陷阱。总的来说，本文的贡献是概念性的，尽管对其应用提出了实际的建议。本文弥合了静态均衡理论和现实世界价格动态之间的差距，介绍了VLRP概念作为一个移动的长期锚，并展示了如何将不确定性和灵活性结合起来，可以改善行业和政策的长期商品价格规划。

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引用次数: 0

Social change and social conflict in Zambian Copperbelt mine communities 赞比亚铜带矿区社区的社会变革和社会冲突

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105815

Lisa Kwaleyela , Miles Larmer

Social conflict has risen in Zambia's Copperbelt region in the past decade, as new private mine owners confront mine communities unwilling to accept the unequal and (from their perspective) unjust distribution of mining wealth. The historically low level of social provision by these mine companies is, this article argues, a significant generator of community grievances and broader social conflict. Company-community relations and social provision – mainly in the form of Corporate Social Responsibility programmes - are however particularly problematic because they are based on an outdated construction of community identity that foregrounds (mainly male) employees and their families. This fails to recognize the transformation in mine community composition, governance, and representation that has taken place since privatisation in the late 1990s/early 2000s, creating more diverse communities that are however profoundly affected by mining activity. This article, drawing on research conducted in Zambia between 2022 and 2023, argues that the marginalization of actually existing mine communities – both in representational terms and in recognition of their specific grievances – has contributed to rising social conflict in the region. Our research further demonstrates a complex interplay of the legacy of earlier company social provision for, and problematic representation of, mine communities and community identity and claim-making based on their collective memory of this earlier period.

在过去的十年里，赞比亚铜带地区的社会冲突有所上升，因为新的私人矿主面临着不愿意接受不平等和（从他们的角度来看）不公正的矿业财富分配的矿区社区。这篇文章认为，这些矿业公司的社会供给水平处于历史低位，是社区不满和更广泛的社会冲突的重要根源。然而，公司-社区关系和社会服务——主要以企业社会责任计划的形式——问题尤其严重，因为它们是基于一种过时的社区认同结构，即优先考虑（主要是男性）员工及其家庭。这没有认识到自20世纪90年代末至21世纪初私有化以来，矿业社区的组成、治理和代表性发生了转变，创造了更加多样化的社区，尽管这些社区受到矿业活动的深刻影响。本文根据2022年至2023年在赞比亚进行的研究，认为实际存在的矿山社区的边缘化——无论是在代表性方面还是在承认他们的具体不满方面——都导致了该地区社会冲突的加剧。我们的研究进一步证明了早期公司社会提供的遗产和有问题的代表之间的复杂相互作用，以及基于他们对早期的集体记忆的社区身份和索赔。

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引用次数: 0

Mining Is Dead. Long Live Geopolitical Mining: Why critical minerals and strategic power will define the next global order, 2025 矿业已死。《地缘政治矿业万岁：为什么关键矿产和战略力量将决定下一个全球秩序》，2025年

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105800

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0

Peaceful development: Natural resources, global agendas and conflict in Africa 和平发展：自然资源、全球议程和非洲冲突

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105796

Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto , Nelson Derrick Nguepi , Cerapis Nchinda Mbognou , Ruth Dzokou Petnga

Natural wealth, such as precious minerals, has often been blamed for driving armed conflict. The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, the study aims to reexamine the impact of natural resource dependence on the likelihood of conflict in Africa. Secondly, to examine the moderating role of development programs in the relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa. The analysis carried out on data from 40 African countries over the period 1996–2022 yielded several main results. Firstly, natural resource rents significantly increase the probability of conflict in Africa. Secondly, the interaction between natural resource rents and development programs, namely the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Agenda 2063, reveals contrasting effects. While the SDGs and Agenda 2063 significantly reduce the likelihood of conflict, this is not the case for the MDGs. Indeed, the MDGs focused more on poverty reduction and did not include all dimensions, whereas recent development programs are more inclusive and integrate the dimensions of governance, peace and security, partnerships, and conflict prevention. The SDGs place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and the management of natural resources, which could help ease tensions around rents. These results are robust to various consistency checks. We suggest that governments continue efforts to promote greater ownership of recent development programs in Africa.

自然财富，如珍贵的矿产，经常被指责为导致武装冲突的原因。这项研究的目的是双重的。首先，本研究旨在重新审视自然资源依赖对非洲冲突可能性的影响。其次，考察发展项目在非洲自然资源与冲突之间关系中的调节作用。对1996年至2022年期间40个非洲国家的数据进行的分析产生了几项主要结果。首先，自然资源租金显著增加了非洲发生冲突的可能性。其次，自然资源租金与发展计划，即千年发展目标（MDGs）、可持续发展目标（SDGs）和《2063年议程》之间的相互作用显示出截然不同的效果。虽然可持续发展目标和《2063年议程》大大减少了冲突的可能性，但千年发展目标并非如此。的确，千年发展目标更侧重于减少贫困，并没有包括所有方面，而最近的发展计划更具包容性，整合了治理、和平与安全、伙伴关系和预防冲突等方面。可持续发展目标更加强调环境的可持续性和自然资源的管理，这有助于缓解围绕租金的紧张局势。这些结果对于各种一致性检查是可靠的。我们建议各国政府继续努力促进对非洲近期发展项目的更大自主权。

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引用次数: 0

Managing resource rents, trade openness, and energy transitions: Evidence on ecological load capacity from newly industrialized economies 管理资源租金、贸易开放和能源转型：来自新兴工业化经济体的生态负荷能力证据

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105821

Md Mustaqim Roshid , Reday Chandra Bhowmik , Bablu Kumar Dhar , Sohidul Islam , Shaharier Arafat Sumon , Andreia de Bem Machado

Understanding how resource rents, trade structures, and energy transitions shape ecological sustainability has become a critical policy challenge for newly industrialized economies (NIEs). This study assesses how these structural drivers influence ecological resilience, measured through the Load Capacity Factor (LCF), across seven NIEs from 1990 to 2020. By explicitly justifying LCF as an integrated indicator capturing both ecological pressure and biocapacity regeneration, the study positions LCF as analytically suitable for resource-policy analysis relative to pollutant-based metrics. Using a heterogeneous-panel econometric framework, we examine long-run associations between natural resource rents, trade openness, renewable energy use, technological progress, and geopolitical risk with LCF performance. Results indicate that GDP exhibits an inverted-U relationship with LCF, trade openness is associated with reduced ecological capacity, and renewable energy shows a consistent positive association. Resource rents correlate with lower LCF, reflecting extractive dependence, while technological progress displays transitional effects linked to uneven absorptive capacity. Geopolitical risk shows mixed but sometimes adaptive associations. These findings collectively demonstrate how rents–openness–energy transitions interact to shape structural sustainability. By offering the first integrated assessment of these factors within an LCF framework for NIEs, the study clarifies its conceptual contribution to resource governance and outlines evidence-based pathways for aligning rent management, trade structures, and clean-energy transitions with long-term ecological stability.

了解资源租金、贸易结构和能源转型如何影响生态可持续性已成为新兴工业化经济体（NIEs）面临的一项关键政策挑战。本研究评估了这些结构驱动因素如何影响生态弹性，通过负载能力系数（LCF）测量，跨越七个新兴市场国家，从1990年到2020年。通过明确证明LCF是捕获生态压力和生物承载力再生的综合指标，该研究将LCF定位为相对于基于污染物的指标，在分析上适合于资源政策分析。利用异质性面板计量经济学框架，我们研究了自然资源租金、贸易开放、可再生能源使用、技术进步和地缘政治风险与LCF绩效之间的长期关系。结果表明，GDP与LCF呈倒u型关系，贸易开放与生态容量减少相关，可再生能源与LCF呈一致的正相关。资源租金与较低的LCF相关，反映了采掘依赖，而技术进步则表现出与不均衡吸收能力相关的过渡性效应。地缘政治风险表现出复杂但有时具有适应性的关联。这些发现共同展示了租金-开放-能源转型如何相互作用，形成结构的可持续性。通过首次在新兴经济体的LCF框架内对这些因素进行综合评估，该研究阐明了其对资源治理的概念贡献，并概述了将租金管理、贸易结构和清洁能源转型与长期生态稳定相结合的循证途径。

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引用次数: 0