This study seeks to answer the question: Does US energy policy uncertainty drive FDI to Africa? This pattern is consistent with theoretical submissions of regulatory arbitrage, institutional voids and push-pull dynamics, where investment reallocation often occurs in an environment with stable, flexible, and strategically favourable factors. We, therefore, employ the GMM approach for a data scope that spans the period from 1996 to 2022 to present the key analysis. Three countries that host nearly 50 % of US foreign direct investment in Africa are considered and the findings are as follows: A rise in US energy policy uncertainty tends to increase FDI flows to African economies that offer less restrictive regulatory environments. We further find evidence of FDI inertia in Egypt and South Africa, where prior investment trends are sustained. However, the results for Nigeria are more sensitive to the inclusion of total factor productivity. This reinforces the idea that domestic fundamentals, such as institutional quality and productivity capacity, interact more intensely with the energy uncertainty in Nigeria than in the other two countries. Evidence from asymmetric results in all models confirms the presence of non-linearity in the spillover effect of energy uncertainty, especially between pre- and post-GFC periods. The post-GFC period tends to have stronger effects, suggesting a shift in investor behaviour. Results from a sensitivity analysis further confirm the robustness of our findings. Thus, we suggest that key African-US partners adopt investment-friendly energy policies as a strategic measure to attract and sustain greater foreign investment in their economies.
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