Pub Date : 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812
Ivan De Crescenzo , Lyubov Doroshenko , Loretta Mastroeni , Alessandro Mazzoccoli
This paper investigates the mechanisms through which macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks influence the volatility of spot and futures uranium markets. The analysis employs gradient boosting and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values and introduces a novel rolling Extreme SHAP Impact Index (ESII) designed to capture periods of abrupt changes in feature importance.
The study adopts a dual-price approach, using the Global Price of Uranium as a spot proxy and the Uranium Futures Contract, along with the Global Price of Energy Index. Risk and uncertainty are measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU) and the GDP-weighted World Uncertainty Index (WUI).
Our results show divergent behaviors in the spot and futures markets, with different volatility drivers. The findings highlight structural limitations and vulnerabilities in the uranium market, offering guidance for regulators and policymakers to support market stability and global energy security.
{"title":"Energy, uncertainty and geopolitics: A SHAP-based tail analysis of spot and futures uranium markets","authors":"Ivan De Crescenzo , Lyubov Doroshenko , Loretta Mastroeni , Alessandro Mazzoccoli","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the mechanisms through which macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks influence the volatility of spot and futures uranium markets. The analysis employs gradient boosting and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values and introduces a novel rolling Extreme SHAP Impact Index (ESII) designed to capture periods of abrupt changes in feature importance.</div><div>The study adopts a dual-price approach, using the Global Price of Uranium as a spot proxy and the Uranium Futures Contract, along with the Global Price of Energy Index. Risk and uncertainty are measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU) and the GDP-weighted World Uncertainty Index (WUI).</div><div>Our results show divergent behaviors in the spot and futures markets, with different volatility drivers. The findings highlight structural limitations and vulnerabilities in the uranium market, offering guidance for regulators and policymakers to support market stability and global energy security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105812"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145691320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105801
Qingying Zheng , Jintao Wu , Boqiang Lin
Although extensive research has been conducted on the risk spillover between clean energy and the non-ferrous metals markets, there has been limited discussion on the role of asymmetric volatility spillover and climate risks in this context. This paper integrates semivariance decomposition with a Tail Event-driven NETwork (TENET) to assess both negative (bad) and positive (good) volatility spillovers in the clean energy and non-ferrous metals markets. The study considers both climate transition and physical risks within the flexible, high-dimensional TENET framework. We find that the patterns of negative and positive volatility spillovers between clean energy and non-ferrous metals markets exhibit significant asymmetry in network structure and dynamics, as evidenced by the total connectedness index. Additionally, we confirm that incorporating physical and transition risks is crucial in analyzing volatility spillovers in these markets. Finally,the portfolio implications underscore the informational and economic value of asymmetric volatility spillover analysis. The findings of this study may have practical implications for policymakers aiming to enhance risk early warning systems and could assist investors in portfolio management.
{"title":"Asymmetric volatility spillover between clean energy and nonferrous metal markets under climate risks: Portfolio hedging implications","authors":"Qingying Zheng , Jintao Wu , Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although extensive research has been conducted on the risk spillover between clean energy and the non-ferrous metals markets, there has been limited discussion on the role of asymmetric volatility spillover and climate risks in this context. This paper integrates semivariance decomposition with a Tail Event-driven NETwork (TENET) to assess both negative (bad) and positive (good) volatility spillovers in the clean energy and non-ferrous metals markets. The study considers both climate transition and physical risks within the flexible, high-dimensional TENET framework. We find that the patterns of negative and positive volatility spillovers between clean energy and non-ferrous metals markets exhibit significant asymmetry in network structure and dynamics, as evidenced by the total connectedness index. Additionally, we confirm that incorporating physical and transition risks is crucial in analyzing volatility spillovers in these markets. Finally,the portfolio implications underscore the informational and economic value of asymmetric volatility spillover analysis. The findings of this study may have practical implications for policymakers aiming to enhance risk early warning systems and could assist investors in portfolio management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105801"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145691322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natural wealth, such as precious minerals, has often been blamed for driving armed conflict. The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, the study aims to reexamine the impact of natural resource dependence on the likelihood of conflict in Africa. Secondly, to examine the moderating role of development programs in the relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa. The analysis carried out on data from 40 African countries over the period 1996–2022 yielded several main results. Firstly, natural resource rents significantly increase the probability of conflict in Africa. Secondly, the interaction between natural resource rents and development programs, namely the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Agenda 2063, reveals contrasting effects. While the SDGs and Agenda 2063 significantly reduce the likelihood of conflict, this is not the case for the MDGs. Indeed, the MDGs focused more on poverty reduction and did not include all dimensions, whereas recent development programs are more inclusive and integrate the dimensions of governance, peace and security, partnerships, and conflict prevention. The SDGs place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and the management of natural resources, which could help ease tensions around rents. These results are robust to various consistency checks. We suggest that governments continue efforts to promote greater ownership of recent development programs in Africa.
{"title":"Peaceful development: Natural resources, global agendas and conflict in Africa","authors":"Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto , Nelson Derrick Nguepi , Cerapis Nchinda Mbognou , Ruth Dzokou Petnga","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural wealth, such as precious minerals, has often been blamed for driving armed conflict. The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, the study aims to reexamine the impact of natural resource dependence on the likelihood of conflict in Africa. Secondly, to examine the moderating role of development programs in the relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa. The analysis carried out on data from 40 African countries over the period 1996–2022 yielded several main results. Firstly, natural resource rents significantly increase the probability of conflict in Africa. Secondly, the interaction between natural resource rents and development programs, namely the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Agenda 2063, reveals contrasting effects. While the SDGs and Agenda 2063 significantly reduce the likelihood of conflict, this is not the case for the MDGs. Indeed, the MDGs focused more on poverty reduction and did not include all dimensions, whereas recent development programs are more inclusive and integrate the dimensions of governance, peace and security, partnerships, and conflict prevention. The SDGs place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and the management of natural resources, which could help ease tensions around rents. These results are robust to various consistency checks. We suggest that governments continue efforts to promote greater ownership of recent development programs in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105796"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145691321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105799
Thiago Vinícius Alves Monteiro , Valente José Matlaba , Gabriel Costa Maciel Moia , Jorge Filipe dos Santos
The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of the collapse of the Fundão Dam on the performance of seven socioeconomic indicators in the Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais, and to evaluate the contribution of the Renova Foundation's repair and recovery actions in improving these indicators. We applied the synthetic control method, as recommended by the literature, when the unit of interest underwent a unique intervention not shared with other units. The construction of the control group considers similarities—characteristics before the event—to the treatment unit. We found that Mariana lacked an effective economic recovery after the event and that labor changes related to temporary activities had a different profile from that of those employed in mining (mostly specialized technical professionals). There was a drop in investments in sport and leisure, which are sectors associated with improving revenues and other social indicators, such as crime, as highlighted by local leaders. In addition to amplifying existing approaches to this event, this work could guide future actions by mining companies in sectors with still low performance. The study can subsidize research on other municipalities with similar situations or structural events and contribute to studies that test the socioeconomic effects of interventions.
{"title":"Effects of the Fundão Dam break on the performance of socioeconomic indicators in Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais State","authors":"Thiago Vinícius Alves Monteiro , Valente José Matlaba , Gabriel Costa Maciel Moia , Jorge Filipe dos Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of the collapse of the Fundão Dam on the performance of seven socioeconomic indicators in the Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais, and to evaluate the contribution of the Renova Foundation's repair and recovery actions in improving these indicators. We applied the synthetic control method, as recommended by the literature, when the unit of interest underwent a unique intervention not shared with other units. The construction of the control group considers similarities—characteristics before the event—to the treatment unit. We found that Mariana lacked an effective economic recovery after the event and that labor changes related to temporary activities had a different profile from that of those employed in mining (mostly specialized technical professionals). There was a drop in investments in sport and leisure, which are sectors associated with improving revenues and other social indicators, such as crime, as highlighted by local leaders. In addition to amplifying existing approaches to this event, this work could guide future actions by mining companies in sectors with still low performance. The study can subsidize research on other municipalities with similar situations or structural events and contribute to studies that test the socioeconomic effects of interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105799"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105798
Nonkululeko Melody Zondo
Artisanal mining practices continue to proliferate in South Africa. This is despite extensive regulation and efforts by the government to curtail these practices. This paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of this conundrum by documenting the narratives of artisanal miners and their experiences over the years, including their motivations and drivers through the lens of everyday resistance theory. Scholars have highlighted the lack of documentation of the reactions and responses of artisanal miners to regulative and coercive measures and interventions aimed at curtailing the ASM sector. This has resulted in a limited understanding of the dynamics between government interventions and miners. This oversight perpetuates the misconceptions about ASM as a sector populated by passive actors who deliberately bypass laws and regulations, causing social and economic disorder. Findings from this study contradict this narrative, revealing artisanal mining as a domain of resistance and agency for poor and marginalised individuals, who actively negotiate their livelihoods and claim their rights in the face of poverty, inequality and different forms of exclusion. This article contends that artisanal mining, like the informal sector, is not the problem itself but rather a symptom of the profound structural issues plaguing the mineral resources sector. Instead of solely focusing on eradicating artisanal mining, interventions and policies should aim to transform the minerals sector as a whole, prioritising inclusive participation and equitable opportunities for marginalised communities in the minerals economy.
{"title":"Dimensions of everyday resistance in rural artisanal mining communities in South Africa","authors":"Nonkululeko Melody Zondo","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artisanal mining practices continue to proliferate in South Africa. This is despite extensive regulation and efforts by the government to curtail these practices. This paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of this conundrum by documenting the narratives of artisanal miners and their experiences over the years, including their motivations and drivers through the lens of everyday resistance theory. Scholars have highlighted the lack of documentation of the reactions and responses of artisanal miners to regulative and coercive measures and interventions aimed at curtailing the ASM sector. This has resulted in a limited understanding of the dynamics between government interventions and miners. This oversight perpetuates the misconceptions about ASM as a sector populated by passive actors who deliberately bypass laws and regulations, causing social and economic disorder. Findings from this study contradict this narrative, revealing artisanal mining as a domain of resistance and agency for poor and marginalised individuals, who actively negotiate their livelihoods and claim their rights in the face of poverty, inequality and different forms of exclusion. This article contends that artisanal mining, like the informal sector, is not the problem itself but rather a symptom of the profound structural issues plaguing the mineral resources sector. Instead of solely focusing on eradicating artisanal mining, interventions and policies should aim to transform the minerals sector as a whole, prioritising inclusive participation and equitable opportunities for marginalised communities in the minerals economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105798"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-28DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105790
Lucie Bartoňová , Helena Raclavská , Barbora Švédová
Due to increased demand on energy storage sector and limited worldwide reserves of lithium, sustainable and reliable sources of this critical metal are being sought. Mining and mineral-processing wastes remain one of world's largest waste streams and proper management of these wastes provides multiple benefits – saving natural resources, reducing supply risk and enhancing environmental performance. Therefore, in terms of their possible use as a cheap and available source of Li (and other valuable elements), the review paper evaluates various mining, industrial and mineral-processing wastes – waste aluminosilicates (including B clays), bauxite processing residues (including red mud or overhaul slag), coal gangue and coal ash, Sn-W clay residues and other wastes (e.g., rare earth molten salt electrolysis slag). The paper discusses physical, chemical and biotechnological methods used for Li extraction from these materials and documents that efficient extraction is technically feasible. To enhance the economic viability, co-extraction of Li and other critical elements (REE, Al, Rb, Cs, Ge, Ga, V, etc.) is evaluated as well. In addition to technologic and economic implications, overall framing of Li extraction from secondary sources in the context of environmental and social sustainability is discussed as well.
{"title":"Lithium extraction from mining and mineral processing wastes","authors":"Lucie Bartoňová , Helena Raclavská , Barbora Švédová","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to increased demand on energy storage sector and limited worldwide reserves of lithium, sustainable and reliable sources of this critical metal are being sought. Mining and mineral-processing wastes remain one of world's largest waste streams and proper management of these wastes provides multiple benefits – saving natural resources, reducing supply risk and enhancing environmental performance. Therefore, in terms of their possible use as a cheap and available source of Li (and other valuable elements), the review paper evaluates various mining, industrial and mineral-processing wastes – waste aluminosilicates (including B clays), bauxite processing residues (including red mud or overhaul slag), coal gangue and coal ash, Sn-W clay residues and other wastes (e.g., rare earth molten salt electrolysis slag). The paper discusses physical, chemical and biotechnological methods used for Li extraction from these materials and documents that efficient extraction is technically feasible. To enhance the economic viability, co-extraction of Li and other critical elements (REE, Al, Rb, Cs, Ge, Ga, V, etc.) is evaluated as well. In addition to technologic and economic implications, overall framing of Li extraction from secondary sources in the context of environmental and social sustainability is discussed as well.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105790"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rhenium is one of the rarest and most strategically significant transition metals, classified among critical minerals due to its indispensable role in aerospace, defense, and energy technologies. Its exceptional high-temperature stability makes it essential in nickel-based superalloys for jet engines and in platinum–rhenium catalysts for clean fuel production. However, the scarcity of primary deposits and concentration of supply in a few countries expose global industries to geopolitical and supply chain risks. This study presents a low-cost, high-efficiency process for extracting and purifying rhenium as ammonium perrhenate from molybdenite roasting dust, using locally available equipment and chemical reagents. The process, tested at both laboratory and industrial scales, achieved high recovery yields while significantly reducing operational costs compared to conventional methods. Beyond the technical achievement, the proposed approach offers strategic value for rhenium-producing countries by enabling domestic value addition, reducing import dependency, and enhancing competitiveness in high-tech and energy sectors. The potential to support national critical mineral strategies highlights the broader policy and market relevance of this work.
{"title":"A low-cost, high-efficiency method for the extraction and purification of rhenium as ammonium perrhenate from molybdenite roasting dust","authors":"Saeid Narimany , Mahboubeh Rabbani , Shahriar Ghamami","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rhenium is one of the rarest and most strategically significant transition metals, classified among critical minerals due to its indispensable role in aerospace, defense, and energy technologies. Its exceptional high-temperature stability makes it essential in nickel-based superalloys for jet engines and in platinum–rhenium catalysts for clean fuel production. However, the scarcity of primary deposits and concentration of supply in a few countries expose global industries to geopolitical and supply chain risks. This study presents a low-cost, high-efficiency process for extracting and purifying rhenium as ammonium perrhenate from molybdenite roasting dust, using locally available equipment and chemical reagents. The process, tested at both laboratory and industrial scales, achieved high recovery yields while significantly reducing operational costs compared to conventional methods. Beyond the technical achievement, the proposed approach offers strategic value for rhenium-producing countries by enabling domestic value addition, reducing import dependency, and enhancing competitiveness in high-tech and energy sectors. The potential to support national critical mineral strategies highlights the broader policy and market relevance of this work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105791"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105763
Véronique Pouillard, Kristin Ranestad
This paper examines the diamond extraction and commerce in South Kasaï, a key diamond-producing region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Focusing on the late colonial years through the post-independence militarization of the province in 1964, the article examines the role of the multinational firms Forminière and Bécéka in consolidating control over diamond resources. Drawing on archival materials from both firms, held in the Sibeka archives (after the postcolonial renaming of these operations), we analyze how these firms exploited Congo’s extractive institutions, contributing to violence and state fragility. Shortly after the Congo gained independence on June 30, 1960, South Kasaï declared secession from the new republic and remained a semi-autonomous entity until 1962. Despite the ban on artisanal mining by the multinationals present in the region and by the South Kasaï provincial authorities, clandestine mining increased and started fostering the cross-border trade in diamonds, creating alternative circuits of commerce outside the monopoly of the De Beers international cartel. Against this backdrop, our findings show a ‘cycle of repression’, in which multinational management employed corruption, local exploitation, and violent measures to suppress artisanal mining and maintain dominance. We argue that the transition to independence intensified legal pluralism and informal mining cultures, undermining state authority and reinforcing the ‘resource curse’ framework. The paper contributes to debates on natural resources, extractive institutions, and conflict, offering a microhistorical perspective on diamond mining and its implications for Congolese governance.
{"title":"Diamond artisanal mining and trafficking in the South Kasaï region of the Congo during the decolonization period (1957–1964)","authors":"Véronique Pouillard, Kristin Ranestad","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105763","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the diamond extraction and commerce in South Kasaï, a key diamond-producing region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Focusing on the late colonial years through the post-independence militarization of the province in 1964, the article examines the role of the multinational firms Forminière and Bécéka in consolidating control over diamond resources. Drawing on archival materials from both firms, held in the Sibeka archives (after the postcolonial renaming of these operations), we analyze how these firms exploited Congo’s extractive institutions, contributing to violence and state fragility. Shortly after the Congo gained independence on June 30, 1960, South Kasaï declared secession from the new republic and remained a semi-autonomous entity until 1962. Despite the ban on artisanal mining by the multinationals present in the region and by the South Kasaï provincial authorities, clandestine mining increased and started fostering the cross-border trade in diamonds, creating alternative circuits of commerce outside the monopoly of the De Beers international cartel. Against this backdrop, our findings show a ‘cycle of repression’, in which multinational management employed corruption, local exploitation, and violent measures to suppress artisanal mining and maintain dominance. We argue that the transition to independence intensified legal pluralism and informal mining cultures, undermining state authority and reinforcing the ‘resource curse’ framework. The paper contributes to debates on natural resources, extractive institutions, and conflict, offering a microhistorical perspective on diamond mining and its implications for Congolese governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105763"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-21DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105781
Mulundumina Shimaponda-Nawa , Glen T. Nwaila
The cost of producing critical raw materials (CRMs) in Africa is governed by economic, technological, and social factors. This study examines the historical cost structures of cobalt, copper, platinum, and zinc commodities that underpin industrial applications and account for a substantial proportion of Africa's mineral production. Based on the analysed historical data and the identified key components, a predictive framework is then developed to estimate future CRM production costs. A comprehensive analysis of production costs over the past 24 years reveals significant trends and implications for the sector. Mine cost curves demonstrate that African production costs for these elements remain competitive but exhibit substantial variability depending on the level of mechanisation, labour expenses, and energy costs. The study establishes that while labour costs declined between 2011 and 2016, mechanisation offset potential cost reductions. A notable rise in operating costs post-2019 corresponds with increased demand for cobalt and copper, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, and platinum for hydrogen-based technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated price volatility and operational expenses. Comparisons with the Global North indicate that African mines operate at a cost advantage for cobalt and platinum due to higher ore grades, whereas copper and zinc producers face challenges associated with deeper mining and energy price fluctuations. Time series projections suggest that production costs will increase by 70 to 80% for platinum, 60 to 65% for cobalt and copper and upto 60% for zinc by 2055, primarily due to rising mine-site costs encompassing labour, energy, and technological investment. The findings have direct implications for policymakers and investors. While Africa remains a dominant supplier of CRMs, cost dynamics suggest that strategic interventions such as investment in energy efficiency, workforce development, and sustainable mining practices will be essential in ensuring long-term competitiveness. This study provides a foundation for data-driven decision-making in the evolving landscape of mineral production in Africa.
{"title":"Analysis of the production cost structure and future prospects of Africa's critical minerals","authors":"Mulundumina Shimaponda-Nawa , Glen T. Nwaila","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cost of producing critical raw materials (CRMs) in Africa is governed by economic, technological, and social factors. This study examines the historical cost structures of cobalt, copper, platinum, and zinc commodities that underpin industrial applications and account for a substantial proportion of Africa's mineral production. Based on the analysed historical data and the identified key components, a predictive framework is then developed to estimate future CRM production costs. A comprehensive analysis of production costs over the past 24 years reveals significant trends and implications for the sector. Mine cost curves demonstrate that African production costs for these elements remain competitive but exhibit substantial variability depending on the level of mechanisation, labour expenses, and energy costs. The study establishes that while labour costs declined between 2011 and 2016, mechanisation offset potential cost reductions. A notable rise in operating costs post-2019 corresponds with increased demand for cobalt and copper, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, and platinum for hydrogen-based technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated price volatility and operational expenses. Comparisons with the Global North indicate that African mines operate at a cost advantage for cobalt and platinum due to higher ore grades, whereas copper and zinc producers face challenges associated with deeper mining and energy price fluctuations. Time series projections suggest that production costs will increase by 70 to 80% for platinum, 60 to 65% for cobalt and copper and upto 60% for zinc by 2055, primarily due to rising mine-site costs encompassing labour, energy, and technological investment. The findings have direct implications for policymakers and investors. While Africa remains a dominant supplier of CRMs, cost dynamics suggest that strategic interventions such as investment in energy efficiency, workforce development, and sustainable mining practices will be essential in ensuring long-term competitiveness. This study provides a foundation for data-driven decision-making in the evolving landscape of mineral production in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105781"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105794
Woolrim Lee, Maria Valeria Aguinaga Fonseca, Yusa Qursillananda, Munyphakdey Koet, Seokhui Lee
Copper is an essential metal in our daily lives, but the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to unexpected changes in international trade in copper ore. This study uses social network analysis to examine the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the international copper ore trading network, focusing on dynamics among countries participating in copper ore trading. Data from Trade Map was divided into two periods based on the outbreak of the pandemic. The findings reveal notable changes in the global copper ore market dynamics, highlighting the pandemic's influence on trade relationships. While some changes in the rankings of leading countries in overall trade, import, and export relations are observed, China maintained its dominant and strategic position in the international copper ore trade network throughout the entire study period, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic. Additionally, while South American countries such as Chile and Peru appear prominently in the copper ore export network, Asian countries emerged as major importers. This study offers a comprehensive view of the global copper ore trade, highlighting the unexpected challenges brought by the pandemic. The findings provide valuable insights for stakeholders, aiding in informed investment and policy decisions within the resource sector.
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