Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105824
Femi Abiodun Olaniyan , Olubunmi Ipinnaiye
This paper examines social innovation (SI) as an alternate pathway to sustainable regional development (SRD) in Nigeria’s resource-rich Niger Delta. It reviews existing regional development policy, highlighting the limitations of top-down approaches, and arguing for increased community participation and stakeholder collaboration. The paper also stresses the importance of addressing environmental issues related to oil exploitation and proposes a paradigm shift towards a collaborative governance model of SRD, which integrates both top-down and bottom-up strategies. It calls for targeted and context-specific policy responses that consider the unique needs of each State in the Niger Delta region. Drawing on evidence from semi-structured interviews with founders of SI initiatives, the study demonstrates the transformative potential of SI in fostering inclusion, empowerment, and collaboration, while addressing multiple dimensions of sustainable development. The paper offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to devise more effective sustainable development strategies in resource-rich regions facing similar challenges.
{"title":"Sustainable regional development in a resource-rich region: The case for social innovation","authors":"Femi Abiodun Olaniyan , Olubunmi Ipinnaiye","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines social innovation (SI) as an alternate pathway to sustainable regional development (SRD) in Nigeria’s resource-rich Niger Delta. It reviews existing regional development policy, highlighting the limitations of top-down approaches, and arguing for increased community participation and stakeholder collaboration. The paper also stresses the importance of addressing environmental issues related to oil exploitation and proposes a paradigm shift towards a collaborative governance model of SRD, which integrates both top-down and bottom-up strategies. It calls for targeted and context-specific policy responses that consider the unique needs of each State in the Niger Delta region. Drawing on evidence from semi-structured interviews with founders of SI initiatives, the study demonstrates the transformative potential of SI in fostering inclusion, empowerment, and collaboration, while addressing multiple dimensions of sustainable development. The paper offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to devise more effective sustainable development strategies in resource-rich regions facing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105824"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812
Ivan De Crescenzo , Lyubov Doroshenko , Loretta Mastroeni , Alessandro Mazzoccoli
This paper investigates the mechanisms through which macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks influence the volatility of spot and futures uranium markets. The analysis employs gradient boosting and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values and introduces a novel rolling Extreme SHAP Impact Index (ESII) designed to capture periods of abrupt changes in feature importance.
The study adopts a dual-price approach, using the Global Price of Uranium as a spot proxy and the Uranium Futures Contract, along with the Global Price of Energy Index. Risk and uncertainty are measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU) and the GDP-weighted World Uncertainty Index (WUI).
Our results show divergent behaviors in the spot and futures markets, with different volatility drivers. The findings highlight structural limitations and vulnerabilities in the uranium market, offering guidance for regulators and policymakers to support market stability and global energy security.
{"title":"Energy, uncertainty and geopolitics: A SHAP-based tail analysis of spot and futures uranium markets","authors":"Ivan De Crescenzo , Lyubov Doroshenko , Loretta Mastroeni , Alessandro Mazzoccoli","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the mechanisms through which macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks influence the volatility of spot and futures uranium markets. The analysis employs gradient boosting and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values and introduces a novel rolling Extreme SHAP Impact Index (ESII) designed to capture periods of abrupt changes in feature importance.</div><div>The study adopts a dual-price approach, using the Global Price of Uranium as a spot proxy and the Uranium Futures Contract, along with the Global Price of Energy Index. Risk and uncertainty are measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU) and the GDP-weighted World Uncertainty Index (WUI).</div><div>Our results show divergent behaviors in the spot and futures markets, with different volatility drivers. The findings highlight structural limitations and vulnerabilities in the uranium market, offering guidance for regulators and policymakers to support market stability and global energy security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105812"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145691320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105809
Oguzhan Ozcelebi , Jose A. Pérez-Montiel , Carles Manera
This study investigates the causal effects of systemic financial stress indicators on gold and silver price returns. We use time-varying causality and quantile-based techniques with weekly data for the period September 28, 2012, to January 27, 2023. The results of the time-varying causality test indicate that systemic financial stress has a persistent causal impact on gold and silver prices in certain dates, which suggests the relevant role of the COVID-19 on the relationship between the variables. On the other hand, the results of the multi-scale quantile Granger causality tests indicate that large negative/positive variations in the systemic financial stress indicators significantly affect gold and silver prices, which can influence the safe-haven asset role of precious metals. Finally, within the framework of an asymmetric quantile regression model, we reveal the regimes under which increases in the financial stress indicators affect gold prices in the short, medium, and long run. We find that increases in systemic financial stress reinforce the role of gold as a safe-haven asset, while the fading of the conditions leading to financial stress leads to the fall of silver prices in the short run.
{"title":"Examination of the impacts of systemic financial stress on precious metal prices","authors":"Oguzhan Ozcelebi , Jose A. Pérez-Montiel , Carles Manera","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the causal effects of systemic financial stress indicators on gold and silver price returns. We use time-varying causality and quantile-based techniques with weekly data for the period September 28, 2012, to January 27, 2023. The results of the time-varying causality test indicate that systemic financial stress has a persistent causal impact on gold and silver prices in certain dates, which suggests the relevant role of the COVID-19 on the relationship between the variables. On the other hand, the results of the multi-scale quantile Granger causality tests indicate that large negative/positive variations in the systemic financial stress indicators significantly affect gold and silver prices, which can influence the safe-haven asset role of precious metals. Finally, within the framework of an asymmetric quantile regression model, we reveal the regimes under which increases in the financial stress indicators affect gold prices in the short, medium, and long run. We find that increases in systemic financial stress reinforce the role of gold as a safe-haven asset, while the fading of the conditions leading to financial stress leads to the fall of silver prices in the short run.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105809"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105817
Esther Dennis Muchunguzi , Pius Zehbe Yanda , Ian Bryceson , Victoria Hippolite Moshy
The government of Tanzania has formulated policies to optimize the natural gas resource in the interests of the government and its citizens, including local communities' livelihoods. However, there is limited analysis of policies and livelihoods. Therefore, this study applied the Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) to map policy options for addressing community livelihood needs in Tanzania's natural gas policies. The study used a mixed-methods approach by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The study sampled 365 local community members from selected villages in Lindi and Mtwara regions, as well as 13 key informants. Data were collected through interviews, reviews of relevant policy documents, and a structured questionnaire. A descriptive analysis of mean comparisons was used to analyze quantitative data collected from household surveys. Content analysis was used to map policy options and their linkage in addressing local communities' livelihoods. The analysis finds that Tanzania's natural gas policies embed relevant policy options for local communities' livelihoods. Such options include corporate social responsibility (CSR), local content, and benefit sharing. However, policy options for compensation for loss and damage and for building resilience to climate change impacts are not included in the main policy documents. Hence, local communities are vulnerable to climate change impacts associated with natural gas operations. The findings indicate that implementing policy options has not adequately improved social services, human capital development, and access to markets for local products. The study concludes that the design and implementation of policies hinder the realization of livelihood needs. Hence, there is a need for policy revisions and participatory policy implementation to accommodate livelihood needs.
{"title":"Mapping policy options for addressing community livelihood needs in Tanzania's natural gas sector","authors":"Esther Dennis Muchunguzi , Pius Zehbe Yanda , Ian Bryceson , Victoria Hippolite Moshy","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The government of Tanzania has formulated policies to optimize the natural gas resource in the interests of the government and its citizens, including local communities' livelihoods. However, there is limited analysis of policies and livelihoods. Therefore, this study applied the Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) to map policy options for addressing community livelihood needs in Tanzania's natural gas policies. The study used a mixed-methods approach by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The study sampled 365 local community members from selected villages in Lindi and Mtwara regions, as well as 13 key informants. Data were collected through interviews, reviews of relevant policy documents, and a structured questionnaire. A descriptive analysis of mean comparisons was used to analyze quantitative data collected from household surveys. Content analysis was used to map policy options and their linkage in addressing local communities' livelihoods. The analysis finds that Tanzania's natural gas policies embed relevant policy options for local communities' livelihoods. Such options include corporate social responsibility (CSR), local content, and benefit sharing. However, policy options for compensation for loss and damage and for building resilience to climate change impacts are not included in the main policy documents. Hence, local communities are vulnerable to climate change impacts associated with natural gas operations. The findings indicate that implementing policy options has not adequately improved social services, human capital development, and access to markets for local products. The study concludes that the design and implementation of policies hinder the realization of livelihood needs. Hence, there is a need for policy revisions and participatory policy implementation to accommodate livelihood needs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105817"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105820
Roberto Esposti
This paper investigates the interdependence among commodity prices. Although the literature on this topic is extensive, it often struggles with the issue of dimensionality. To address this challenge, the paper proposes a solution based on network theory and a sparse estimation approach. The analysis relies on a large dataset of about 50 monthly commodity prices (1980–2024), grouped into energy, metals, agriculture, food, and other raw materials. A Commodity Price Network is constructed via Granger causality tests, using both pairwise and sparse VAR models, applied to price levels and first differences to account for potential non-stationarity. The results show that network topology is sensitive to the methodological approach. Nonetheless, consistent patterns emerge: metals and energy commodities maintain a central role, alongside certain agricultural products. In the sparser network configuration, energy commodities exhibit an average outgoing modularity 2.2 times higher than that of metals. Conversely, metals display an average ingoing modularity 5 % greater than energy commodities. Notably, iron shows 2.5 times more outgoing links than crude oil.
{"title":"Investigating commodity price interdependence with Granger causality networks","authors":"Roberto Esposti","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105820","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105820","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the interdependence among commodity prices. Although the literature on this topic is extensive, it often struggles with the issue of dimensionality. To address this challenge, the paper proposes a solution based on network theory and a sparse estimation approach. The analysis relies on a large dataset of about 50 monthly commodity prices (1980–2024), grouped into energy, metals, agriculture, food, and other raw materials. A Commodity Price Network is constructed via Granger causality tests, using both pairwise and sparse VAR models, applied to price levels and first differences to account for potential non-stationarity. The results show that network topology is sensitive to the methodological approach. Nonetheless, consistent patterns emerge: metals and energy commodities maintain a central role, alongside certain agricultural products. In the sparser network configuration, energy commodities exhibit an average outgoing modularity 2.2 times higher than that of metals. Conversely, metals display an average ingoing modularity 5 % greater than energy commodities. Notably, iron shows 2.5 times more outgoing links than crude oil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105820"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105811
Kaiyu Xie , Marcos R. Machado , Laura Spierdijk , Devrim Murat Yazan
The transition to a circular economy (CE) has gained significant attention as a strategy to enhance sustainability across resource-intensive industries. However, its application within critical raw materials (CRMs) supply chains — and its potential to mitigate upstream supply risks — remains insufficiently explored. A key gap concerns how CRMs-dependent businesses can access the financial resources required to implement circularity strategies effectively. This study addresses that gap by synthesizing existing literature and proposing a Novel Blended Framework comprising two complementary components. First, we introduce a Circular Strategy–Risk Diagnostic Cube that enables firms to map specific categories of supply disruption to context-appropriate circularity strategies. Second, we develop an Integrated Financing Architecture that identifies how public, private, and hybrid financing instruments can be combined to support these strategies, given the diverse risk profiles and capital needs of CE initiatives. Drawing on the perspectives of three key stakeholder groups — CRMs-dependent businesses, private financial entities, and the public sector — we identify critical funding challenges, outline actionable pathways to improve access to finance and capital, and formulate a research agenda to strengthen the financial underpinnings of circular transitions. Our findings offer both theoretical advancements and practical recommendations, emphasizing the need for collective action across sectors to achieve sustainable and financially viable CRMs supply chains.
{"title":"Financing circularity strategies in critical raw materials supply chains: Toward a novel blended framework","authors":"Kaiyu Xie , Marcos R. Machado , Laura Spierdijk , Devrim Murat Yazan","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to a circular economy (CE) has gained significant attention as a strategy to enhance sustainability across resource-intensive industries. However, its application within critical raw materials (CRMs) supply chains — and its potential to mitigate upstream supply risks — remains insufficiently explored. A key gap concerns how CRMs-dependent businesses can access the financial resources required to implement circularity strategies effectively. This study addresses that gap by synthesizing existing literature and proposing a Novel Blended Framework comprising two complementary components. First, we introduce a Circular Strategy–Risk Diagnostic Cube that enables firms to map specific categories of supply disruption to context-appropriate circularity strategies. Second, we develop an Integrated Financing Architecture that identifies how public, private, and hybrid financing instruments can be combined to support these strategies, given the diverse risk profiles and capital needs of CE initiatives. Drawing on the perspectives of three key stakeholder groups — CRMs-dependent businesses, private financial entities, and the public sector — we identify critical funding challenges, outline actionable pathways to improve access to finance and capital, and formulate a research agenda to strengthen the financial underpinnings of circular transitions. Our findings offer both theoretical advancements and practical recommendations, emphasizing the need for collective action across sectors to achieve sustainable and financially viable CRMs supply chains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105811"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105814
Mohammad Hossein Jahangiri , Yadollah Bahramian
This paper examines why environmental non-compliance persists in Iran's oil and gas sector despite the existence of formal regulations and expanding regulatory budgets. We develop a non-cooperative, simultaneous-move game between oil contractors and NIOC supervisors under imperfect detection by the regulator. The model demonstrates that compliance depends on two critical deterrence mechanisms: (i) contractor deterrence, where the expected environmental fine exceeds the total gain from non-compliance (), and (ii) supervisory incentive alignment, where the expected penalty for negligence outweighs collusion incentives ().
The equilibrium analysis shows that low detection probability, weak enforcement sanctions, production-biased incentive structures, and high collusion risk drive the system toward a stable non-compliance equilibrium. Using empirical illustrations from Iran's major oil and gas fields—such as gas flaring, air pollution, and regulatory budget trends—we identify a persistent “enforcement gap”, where increasing environmental expenditures fail to translate into effective compliance.
This study contributes to the environmental governance literature by linking institutional incentives to environmental outcomes through a formalized game-theoretic framework. The findings highlight the central role of strengthening detection capacity, enhancing penalty credibility, reducing collusion risks, and redesigning supervisory incentives in shifting the system toward a self-enforcing compliance equilibrium.
{"title":"Environmental governance and resource policy in Iran's oil and gas sector: A game-theoretic approach","authors":"Mohammad Hossein Jahangiri , Yadollah Bahramian","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines why environmental non-compliance persists in Iran's oil and gas sector despite the existence of formal regulations and expanding regulatory budgets. We develop a non-cooperative, simultaneous-move game between oil contractors and NIOC supervisors under imperfect detection by the regulator. The model demonstrates that compliance depends on two critical deterrence mechanisms: (i) contractor deterrence, where the expected environmental fine exceeds the total gain from non-compliance (<span><math><mrow><mi>δ</mi><mi>F</mi><mo>≥</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>+</mo><msub><mi>C</mi><mi>e</mi></msub></mrow></math></span>), and (ii) supervisory incentive alignment, where the expected penalty for negligence outweighs collusion incentives (<span><math><mrow><mi>b</mi><mi>S</mi><mo>≤</mo><mi>β</mi><mo>+</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>−</mo><mi>δ</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow><mi>γ</mi></mrow></math></span>).</div><div>The equilibrium analysis shows that low detection probability, weak enforcement sanctions, production-biased incentive structures, and high collusion risk drive the system toward a stable non-compliance equilibrium. Using empirical illustrations from Iran's major oil and gas fields—such as gas flaring, air pollution, and regulatory budget trends—we identify a persistent “enforcement gap”, where increasing environmental expenditures fail to translate into effective compliance.</div><div>This study contributes to the environmental governance literature by linking institutional incentives to environmental outcomes through a formalized game-theoretic framework. The findings highlight the central role of strengthening detection capacity, enhancing penalty credibility, reducing collusion risks, and redesigning supervisory incentives in shifting the system toward a self-enforcing compliance equilibrium.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105814"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105787
Malene Fumany , Viet Nguyen-Tien , Nanxi Li , Robert J.R. Elliott , Laura Lander
Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and critical materials such as nickel and cobalt, posing threats not only to the EU's decarbonisation agenda but also to global Net Zero ambitions. In response, EU policymakers have accelerated efforts to develop local battery ecosystems including the recycling of end-of-life LIBs. However, the potential impact of these interventions on material dependencies and battery economics is not well understood. This paper introduces a novel policy-economic framework to assess the prospective evolution of the LIB recycling sector in response to policy changes introduced by the EU Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542). In particular, drawing on an industry-led survey, the framework evaluates the impact of the mandated minimum recycled content on material flow and battery costs. The results reveal that the Battery Regulation may increase battery cell costs by up to 15 %. While this study is EU-specific, its findings carry broader relevance for international battery policy and market dynamics and provides new evidence on how international policies may impact the future of the battery sector.
{"title":"The EV transition: The impact of the EU battery directive on critical material supply, recycling and battery costs","authors":"Malene Fumany , Viet Nguyen-Tien , Nanxi Li , Robert J.R. Elliott , Laura Lander","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and critical materials such as nickel and cobalt, posing threats not only to the EU's decarbonisation agenda but also to global Net Zero ambitions. In response, EU policymakers have accelerated efforts to develop local battery ecosystems including the recycling of end-of-life LIBs. However, the potential impact of these interventions on material dependencies and battery economics is not well understood. This paper introduces a novel policy-economic framework to assess the prospective evolution of the LIB recycling sector in response to policy changes introduced by the EU Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542). In particular, drawing on an industry-led survey, the framework evaluates the impact of the mandated minimum recycled content on material flow and battery costs. The results reveal that the Battery Regulation may increase battery cell costs by up to 15 %. While this study is EU-specific, its findings carry broader relevance for international battery policy and market dynamics and provides new evidence on how international policies may impact the future of the battery sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105787"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The highly dynamic nature of the electric vehicle industry has intensified global demand for nickel, a critical input in battery production. As the world's largest nickel producer, Indonesia faces the dual challenge of fostering industrial growth while limiting environmental impacts. This study develops a system dynamics model to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of trade policy options in Indonesia's nickel supply chain, including export bans, tariffs and royalties, and tax incentives. The model integrates supply, demand, economic, and environmental subsystems to simulate scenarios for 2016–2040. Results show that an export ban paired with tax incentives increases national revenues by 154 % relative to the baseline (USD 474 billion to USD 1206 billion), underscoring the importance of downstream processing in value creation. Yet this strategy also accelerates CO2 emissions (+217 %) and solid waste generation (+348 %). The ban further creates a global demand backlog for nickel ore while generating surpluses in final products. Class 2 intermediates (NPI and FeNi) currently yield higher revenues than class 1 products (Ni matte and MHP), reflecting domestic capacity constraints. The findings highlight trade-offs between economic gains and environmental sustainability, offering a decision-support framework for policymakers to design balanced strategies in Indonesia's nickel sector.
{"title":"Navigating trade policies and sustainability: a system dynamics analysis of Indonesia’s nickel supply chain","authors":"Meditya Wasesa , Taufiq Hidayat , Dinda Thalia Andariesta , Alma Kenanga Attazahri , Bima Satritama , Haidar Aji Wasesa , Zulfiadi Zulhan , Mohammad Zaki Mubarok , Utomo Sarjono Putro","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The highly dynamic nature of the electric vehicle industry has intensified global demand for nickel, a critical input in battery production. As the world's largest nickel producer, Indonesia faces the dual challenge of fostering industrial growth while limiting environmental impacts. This study develops a system dynamics model to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of trade policy options in Indonesia's nickel supply chain, including export bans, tariffs and royalties, and tax incentives. The model integrates supply, demand, economic, and environmental subsystems to simulate scenarios for 2016–2040. Results show that an export ban paired with tax incentives increases national revenues by 154 % relative to the baseline (USD 474 billion to USD 1206 billion), underscoring the importance of downstream processing in value creation. Yet this strategy also accelerates CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (+217 %) and solid waste generation (+348 %). The ban further creates a global demand backlog for nickel ore while generating surpluses in final products. Class 2 intermediates (NPI and FeNi) currently yield higher revenues than class 1 products (Ni matte and MHP), reflecting domestic capacity constraints. The findings highlight trade-offs between economic gains and environmental sustainability, offering a decision-support framework for policymakers to design balanced strategies in Indonesia's nickel sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 105786"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145537502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105798
Nonkululeko Melody Zondo
Artisanal mining practices continue to proliferate in South Africa. This is despite extensive regulation and efforts by the government to curtail these practices. This paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of this conundrum by documenting the narratives of artisanal miners and their experiences over the years, including their motivations and drivers through the lens of everyday resistance theory. Scholars have highlighted the lack of documentation of the reactions and responses of artisanal miners to regulative and coercive measures and interventions aimed at curtailing the ASM sector. This has resulted in a limited understanding of the dynamics between government interventions and miners. This oversight perpetuates the misconceptions about ASM as a sector populated by passive actors who deliberately bypass laws and regulations, causing social and economic disorder. Findings from this study contradict this narrative, revealing artisanal mining as a domain of resistance and agency for poor and marginalised individuals, who actively negotiate their livelihoods and claim their rights in the face of poverty, inequality and different forms of exclusion. This article contends that artisanal mining, like the informal sector, is not the problem itself but rather a symptom of the profound structural issues plaguing the mineral resources sector. Instead of solely focusing on eradicating artisanal mining, interventions and policies should aim to transform the minerals sector as a whole, prioritising inclusive participation and equitable opportunities for marginalised communities in the minerals economy.
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