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Imprecise probabilistic inference from sequential data. 从连续数据中进行不精确的概率推断。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000469
Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford
Although the Bayesian paradigm is an important benchmark in studies of human inference, the extent to which it provides a useful framework to account for human behavior remains debated. We document systematic departures from Bayesian inference under correct beliefs, even on average, in the estimates by experimental subjects of the probability of a binary event following observations of successive realizations of the event. In particular, we find underreaction of subjects' estimates to the evidence ("conservatism") after only a few observations and at the same time overreaction after longer sequences of observations. This is not explained by an incorrect prior nor by many common models of Bayesian inference. We uncover the autocorrelation in estimates, which suggests that subjects carry imprecise representations of the decision situations, with noise in beliefs propagating over successive trials. But even taking into account these internal imprecisions and assuming various incorrect beliefs, we find that subjects' updates are inconsistent with the rules of Bayesian inference. We show how subjects instead considerably economize on the attention that they pay to the information relevant to the decision, and on the degree of control that they exert over their precise response, while giving responses fairly adapted to the task. A "noisy-counting" model of probability estimation reproduces the several patterns we exhibit in subjects' behavior. In sum, human subjects in our task perform reasonably well while greatly minimizing the amount of information that they pay attention to. Our results emphasize that investigating this economy of attention is crucial in understanding human decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
尽管贝叶斯范式是人类推理研究中的一个重要基准,但它在多大程度上为人类行为提供了一个有用的解释框架仍存在争议。我们记录了实验对象在观察二元事件的连续实现后对该事件概率的估计,即使是平均值,也系统性地偏离了正确信念下的贝叶斯推断。特别是,我们发现受试者的估计值在仅有几次观察后就对证据反应不足("保守主义"),同时在较长的观察序列后反应过度。这既不能用不正确的先验来解释,也不能用许多常见的贝叶斯推理模型来解释。我们发现了估计值中的自相关性,这表明受试者对决策情境的表征并不精确,信念中的噪声在连续试验中传播。但是,即使考虑到这些内部不精确性并假设各种不正确的信念,我们还是发现受试者的更新与贝叶斯推理规则不一致。我们展示了受试者是如何在相当程度上节约对决策相关信息的关注,以及对精确反应的控制程度,同时给出相当适应任务的反应的。概率估计的 "噪声计数 "模型再现了我们在受试者行为中发现的几种模式。总之,人类受试者在我们的任务中表现相当出色,同时大大减少了他们所关注的信息量。我们的研究结果强调,研究这种注意力的经济性对于理解人类决策至关重要。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved)。
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引用次数: 1
Supplemental Material for Limited Information-Processing Capacity in Vision Explains Number Psychophysics 视觉中有限的信息处理能力解释了数字心理物理学》补充材料
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000478.supp
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引用次数: 0
Humans adaptively select different computational strategies in different learning environments. 人类在不同的学习环境中会适应性地选择不同的计算策略。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000474
Pieter Verbeke, Tom Verguts

The Rescorla-Wagner rule remains the most popular tool to describe human behavior in reinforcement learning tasks. Nevertheless, it cannot fit human learning in complex environments. Previous work proposed several hierarchical extensions of this learning rule. However, it remains unclear when a flat (nonhierarchical) versus a hierarchical strategy is adaptive, or when it is implemented by humans. To address this question, current work applies a nested modeling approach to evaluate multiple models in multiple reinforcement learning environments both computationally (which approach performs best) and empirically (which approach fits human data best). We consider 10 empirical data sets (N = 407) divided over three reinforcement learning environments. Our results demonstrate that different environments are best solved with different learning strategies; and that humans adaptively select the learning strategy that allows best performance. Specifically, while flat learning fitted best in less complex stable learning environments, humans employed more hierarchically complex models in more complex environments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

雷斯科拉-瓦格纳法则仍然是描述强化学习任务中人类行为的最常用工具。然而,它并不适合人类在复杂环境中的学习。之前的研究提出了该学习规则的几种分层扩展。然而,目前仍不清楚扁平(非分层)策略与分层策略何时具有适应性,或何时由人类实施。为了解决这个问题,目前的工作采用了嵌套建模方法,对多种强化学习环境中的多种模型进行计算评估(哪种方法表现最佳)和经验评估(哪种方法最适合人类数据)。我们考虑了三个强化学习环境中的 10 个经验数据集(N = 407)。我们的结果表明,在不同的环境中,最好采用不同的学习策略;而且人类会适应性地选择性能最佳的学习策略。具体来说,在不太复杂的稳定学习环境中,平面学习最合适,而在更复杂的环境中,人类则采用了层次更复杂的模型。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral plasticity in aneural organisms. 无神经生物的行为可塑性
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000483
M. Papini
Few contemporary psychologists would probably object to the notion that cognitive processes contribute to behavioral plasticity (learning) and are intimately linked to brain function. However, growing evidence suggests that behavioral plasticity is present in organisms lacking neurons (i.e., aneural organisms). This possibility would imply that at least some cognitive processes might have preceded the evolution of nervous systems. Evidence of learning in aneural organisms is reviewed within a mechanistic framework emphasizing four levels of analysis: psychological, neurobiological, neurochemical, and cell-molecular. Learning phenomena ranging from habituation to conditioning have been reported in some aneural organisms, and some key examples are reviewed with attention to evidence of underlying mechanisms. Species comparisons are framed in terms of the central evolutionary concepts of homology and homoplasy. This evidence raises the question of what new behavioral capacities were supported by the evolution of neurons that were not possible before. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
认知过程有助于行为可塑性(学习)并与大脑功能密切相关,当代心理学家可能很少会反对这一观点。然而,越来越多的证据表明,行为可塑性存在于缺乏神经元的生物体(即无神经生物体)中。这种可能性意味着至少某些认知过程可能早于神经系统的进化。本文在一个强调四个层次分析的机理框架内回顾了无神经生物的学习证据:心理、神经生物学、神经化学和细胞分子。据报道,一些无神经生物体内存在从习惯化到条件反射的学习现象,本研究对一些关键实例进行了综述,并关注了潜在机制的证据。物种比较以同源性和同源性这一核心进化概念为框架。这些证据提出了一个问题:神经元的进化支持了哪些以前不可能实现的新行为能力?(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Supplemental Material for Humans Adaptively Select Different Computational Strategies in Different Learning Environments 人类在不同学习环境中适应性地选择不同计算策略的补充材料
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000474.supp
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引用次数: 0
One thought too few: An adaptive rationale for punishing negligence. 一念之差:惩罚过失的适应性原理。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000476
Arun Sarin, F. Cushman
Why do we punish negligence? Some current accounts raise the possibility that it can be explained by the kinds of processes that lead us to punish ordinary harmful acts, such as outcome bias, character inference, or antecedent deliberative choices. Although they capture many important cases, these explanations fail to account for others. We argue that, in addition to these phenomena, there is something unique to the punishment of negligence itself: People hold others directly responsible for the basic fact of failing to bring to mind information that would help them to avoid important risks. In other words, we propose that at its heart negligence is a failure of thought. Drawing on the current literature in moral psychology, we suggest that people find it natural to punish such failures, even when they do not arise from conscious, volitional choice. This raises a question: Why punish somebody for a mental event they did not exercise deliberative control over? Drawing on the literature on how thoughts come to mind, we argue that punishing a person for such failures will help prevent their future occurrence, even without the involvement of volitional choice. This provides new insight on the structure and function of our tendency to punish negligent actions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
我们为什么要惩罚过失?目前的一些观点认为,我们可以用那些导致我们惩罚普通有害行为的过程来解释过失,如结果偏差、性格推断或先行审议选择。尽管这些解释捕捉到了许多重要案例,但却无法解释其他案例。我们认为,除了这些现象之外,惩罚过失本身也有其独特之处:人们会要求他人直接对其未能提供有助于他们规避重要风险的信息这一基本事实负责。换句话说,我们认为过失的核心是思想上的失败。借鉴当前的道德心理学文献,我们认为,人们会自然而然地惩罚这种失误,即使它们并非源于有意识的、自愿的选择。这就提出了一个问题:为什么要惩罚一个没有经过深思熟虑控制的心理事件呢?借鉴有关思想如何进入大脑的文献,我们认为,即使没有意志选择的参与,对这种失败进行惩罚也有助于防止它们在未来发生。这对我们惩罚过失行为的倾向的结构和功能提供了新的见解。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal metacognitive control of memory recall. 记忆回忆的最佳元认知控制。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000441
Frederick Callaway, Thomas L Griffiths, Kenneth A Norman, Qiong Zhang

Most of us have experienced moments when we could not recall some piece of information but felt that it was just out of reach. Research in metamemory has established that such judgments are often accurate; but what adaptive purpose do they serve? Here, we present an optimal model of how metacognitive monitoring (feeling of knowing) could dynamically inform metacognitive control of memory (the direction of retrieval efforts). In two experiments, we find that, consistent with the optimal model, people report having a stronger memory for targets they are likely to recall and direct their search efforts accordingly, cutting off the search when it is unlikely to succeed and prioritizing the search for stronger memories. Our results suggest that metamemory is indeed adaptive and motivate the development of process-level theories that account for the dynamic interplay between monitoring and control. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

我们大多数人都经历过这样的时刻:我们记不起某条信息,但觉得它遥不可及。元记忆研究已经证实,这样的判断往往是准确的;但它们有什么适应性目的呢?在这里,我们提出了一个元认知监控(知道的感觉)如何动态告知记忆的元认知控制(检索工作的方向)的最佳模型。在两个实验中,我们发现,与最优模型一致,人们报告对他们可能回忆的目标有更强的记忆,并相应地指导他们的搜索工作,在不太可能成功时切断搜索,并优先搜索更强的记忆。我们的研究结果表明,元记忆确实是自适应的,并推动了过程级理论的发展,这些理论解释了监控和控制之间的动态相互作用。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2023 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
The violation-of-expectation paradigm: A conceptual overview. 违反期望范式:概念概述。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000450
Francesco Margoni, Luca Surian, Renée Baillargeon

For over 35 years, the violation-of-expectation paradigm has been used to study the development of expectations in the first 3 years of life. A wide range of expectations has been examined, including physical, psychological, sociomoral, biological, numerical, statistical, probabilistic, and linguistic expectations. Surprisingly, despite the paradigm's widespread use and the many seminal findings it has contributed to psychological science, so far no one has tried to provide a detailed and in-depth conceptual overview of the paradigm. Here, we attempted to do just that. We first focus on the rationale of the paradigm and discuss how it has evolved over time. We then show how improved descriptions of infants' looking behavior, together with the addition of a rich panoply of brain and behavioral measures, have helped deepen our understanding of infants' responses to violations. Next, we review the paradigm's strengths and limitations. Finally, we end with a discussion of challenges that have been leveled against the paradigm over the years. Through it all, our goal was twofold. First, we sought to provide psychologists and other scientists interested in the paradigm with an informed and constructive analysis of its theoretical origins and development. Second, we wanted to take stock of what the paradigm has revealed to date about how infants reason about events, and about how surprise at unexpected events, in or out of the laboratory, can lead to learning, by prompting infants to revise their working model of the world. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

35年来,违反期望范式一直被用于研究生命前3年的期望发展。研究了广泛的期望,包括生理、心理、社会道德、生物、数字、统计、概率和语言期望。令人惊讶的是,尽管该范式被广泛使用,并为心理科学做出了许多开创性的发现,但到目前为止,还没有人试图对该范式进行详细而深入的概念概述。在这里,我们试图做到这一点。我们首先关注范式的基本原理,并讨论它是如何随着时间的推移而演变的。然后,我们展示了对婴儿长相行为的改进描述,以及丰富的大脑和行为测量,如何有助于加深我们对婴儿对违规行为的反应的理解。接下来,我们将回顾该范式的优势和局限性。最后,我们讨论了多年来针对该范式提出的挑战。在这一切中,我们的目标是双重的。首先,我们试图为心理学家和其他对该范式感兴趣的科学家提供对其理论起源和发展的知情和建设性分析。其次,我们想通过促使婴儿修改他们的世界工作模式,来评估迄今为止该范式所揭示的婴儿如何对事件进行推理,以及对实验室内外的意外事件的惊讶是如何导致学习的。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2023 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
A social inference model of idealization and devaluation. 理想化和贬值的社会推论模型。
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000430
Giles W Story, Ryan Smith, Michael Moutoussis, Isabel M Berwian, Tobias Nolte, Edda Bilek, Jenifer Z Siegel, Raymond J Dolan

People often form polarized beliefs, imbuing objects (e.g., themselves or others) with unambiguously positive or negative qualities. In clinical settings, this is referred to as dichotomous thinking or "splitting" and is a feature of several psychiatric disorders. Here, we introduce a Bayesian model of splitting that parameterizes a tendency to rigidly categorize objects as either entirely "Bad" or "Good," rather than to flexibly learn dispositions along a continuous scale. Distinct from the previous descriptive theories, the model makes quantitative predictions about how dichotomous beliefs emerge and are updated in light of new information. Specifically, the model addresses how splitting is context-dependent, yet exhibits stability across time. A key model feature is that phases of devaluation and/or idealization are consolidated by rationally attributing counter-evidence to external factors. For example, when another person is idealized, their less-than-perfect behavior is attributed to unfavorable external circumstances. However, sufficient counter-evidence can trigger switches of polarity, producing bistable dynamics. We show that the model can be fitted to empirical data, to measure individual susceptibility to relational instability. For example, we find that a latent categorical belief that others are "Good" accounts for less changeable, and more certain, character impressions of benevolent as opposed to malevolent others among healthy participants. By comparison, character impressions made by participants with borderline personality disorder reveal significantly higher and more symmetric splitting. The generative framework proposed invites applications for modeling oscillatory relational and affective dynamics in psychotherapeutic contexts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

人们经常会形成两极分化的信念,赋予对象(如自己或他人)明确的正面或负面品质。在临床环境中,这种现象被称为二分思维或 "分裂",是多种精神疾病的特征之一。在这里,我们引入了一种贝叶斯分裂模型,该模型的参数化倾向是将对象僵化地归类为完全的 "坏 "或 "好",而不是沿着连续的尺度灵活地学习处置。与之前的描述性理论不同,该模型对二分法信念如何产生以及如何根据新信息进行更新做出了定量预测。具体来说,该模型解决了二分法如何依赖于情境,但又在不同时间表现出稳定性的问题。该模型的一个主要特点是,贬低和/或理想化阶段会通过理性地将反证归因于外部因素而得到巩固。例如,当他人被理想化时,其不完美的行为会被归因于不利的外部环境。然而,充分的反证会触发极性转换,产生双稳态动态。我们的研究表明,该模型可与经验数据相匹配,以衡量个人对关系不稳定性的易感性。例如,我们发现在健康的参与者中,"他人是好的 "这一潜在的分类信念会使他们对他人的善意而非恶意的性格印象变化更少、更确定。相比之下,患有边缘型人格障碍的参与者对他人的性格印象则表现出更高的对称性。所提出的生成框架可应用于心理治疗中的振荡关系和情感动态建模。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
A signal detection-based confidence-similarity model of face matching. 基于信号检测的人脸匹配置信度-相似度模型
IF 5.4 1区 心理学 Q1 Psychology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1037/rev0000435
Daniel Fitousi

Face matching consists of the ability to decide whether two face images (or more) belong to the same person or to different identities. Face matching is crucial for efficient face recognition and plays an important role in applied settings such as passport control and eyewitness memory. However, despite extensive research, the mechanisms that govern face-matching performance are still not well understood. Moreover, to date, many researchers hold on to the belief that match and mismatch conditions are governed by two separate systems, an assumption that likely thwarted the development of a unified model of face matching. The present study outlines a unified unequal variance confidence-similarity signal detection-based model of face-matching performance, one that facilitates the use of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and confidence-accuracy plots to better understand the relations between match and mismatch conditions, and their relations to factors of confidence and similarity. A binomial feature-matching mechanism is developed to support this signal detection model. The model can account for the presence of both within-identities and between-identities sources of variation in face recognition and explains a myriad of face-matching phenomena, including the match-mismatch dissociation. The model is also capable of generating new predictions concerning the role of confidence and similarity and their intricate relations with accuracy. The new model was tested against six alternative competing models (some postulate discrete rather than continuous representations) in three experiments. Data analyses consisted of hierarchically nested model fitting, ROC curve analyses, and confidence-accuracy plots analyses. All of these provided substantial support in the signal detection-based confidence-similarity model. The model suggests that the accuracy of face-matching performance can be predicted by the degree of similarity/dissimilarity of the depicted faces and the level of confidence in the decision. Moreover, according to the model, confidence and similarity ratings are strongly correlated. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

人脸匹配包括判断两张(或多张)人脸图像是属于同一个人还是属于不同身份的能力。人脸匹配对于高效的人脸识别至关重要,并在护照控制和目击者记忆等应用场合发挥着重要作用。然而,尽管进行了广泛的研究,人们对支配人脸匹配性能的机制仍不甚了解。此外,迄今为止,许多研究人员仍然认为匹配和不匹配条件是由两个不同的系统控制的,这一假设很可能阻碍了人脸匹配统一模型的发展。本研究概述了一个基于不等方差置信度-相似度信号检测的人脸匹配性能统一模型,该模型便于使用接收者操作特征图(ROC)和置信度-准确度图来更好地理解匹配和不匹配条件之间的关系,以及它们与置信度和相似度因素之间的关系。为支持这一信号检测模型,开发了一种二项式特征匹配机制。该模型可以解释人脸识别中存在的同一性内部和同一性之间的变化来源,并能解释大量的人脸匹配现象,包括匹配与不匹配的分离。该模型还能对置信度和相似度的作用及其与准确性的复杂关系做出新的预测。在三个实验中,新模型与六个可供选择的竞争模型(其中一些假设了离散而非连续的表征)进行了对比测试。数据分析包括分层嵌套模型拟合、ROC 曲线分析和置信度-准确度图分析。所有这些都为基于信号检测的置信度-相似度模型提供了大量支持。该模型表明,人脸匹配的准确性可以通过所描绘人脸的相似/不相似程度和决策的置信度来预测。此外,根据该模型,置信度和相似度评级密切相关。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
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Psychological review
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