Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country's economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic). It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019-2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc. On the whole, the reduction of the recession GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half. Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.
{"title":"An instrumental analysis of GDP gap in Ukraine","authors":"M. Skrypnychenko, H. Yatsenko","doi":"10.15407/EIP2018.01.058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2018.01.058","url":null,"abstract":"Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country's economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic). It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019-2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc. On the whole, the reduction of the recession GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half. Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129352295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article presents a detailed analysis and justification of new opportunities for domestic food industry producers to export to the US and Canada markets. A comparative analysis of the main indicators of the dynamics of exports from Ukraine to the United States and Canada over the past 10 years has been conducted. The analysis shows that the US and Canadian import structure displays a positive dynamics of food and vegetables and fruits. Statistics on trade between Ukraine and the United States, as well as between Ukraine and Canada, indicate that Ukrainian producers have already stepped up their cooperation with those countries. The article considers the mechanism and main requirements for participants in public procurement in the USA. Specific requirements for food industry producers are revealed. The authors propose a sequence of actions for the successful preparation of domestic companies for participation in tenders in the USA and Canada, as well as recommendations for the establishment of export of Ukrainian food products to the United States and Canada. It is established that the most important factors for successful participation in public procurement are the analysis of own production by enterprises, studying the requirements of a specific tender and meeting the requirements for the certification of products and production. Substantiated the expediency of studying specific features of doing business in foreign countries.
{"title":"An assessment of the prospects of exporting Ukrainian produce to USA and Canada","authors":"I. Ianenkova, O. Tsyplitska","doi":"10.15407/EIP2018.01.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2018.01.111","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents a detailed analysis and justification of new opportunities for domestic food industry producers to export to the US and Canada markets. A comparative analysis of the main indicators of the dynamics of exports from Ukraine to the United States and Canada over the past 10 years has been conducted. The analysis shows that the US and Canadian import structure displays a positive dynamics of food and vegetables and fruits. Statistics on trade between Ukraine and the United States, as well as between Ukraine and Canada, indicate that Ukrainian producers have already stepped up their cooperation with those countries. The article considers the mechanism and main requirements for participants in public procurement in the USA. Specific requirements for food industry producers are revealed. The authors propose a sequence of actions for the successful preparation of domestic companies for participation in tenders in the USA and Canada, as well as recommendations for the establishment of export of Ukrainian food products to the United States and Canada. It is established that the most important factors for successful participation in public procurement are the analysis of own production by enterprises, studying the requirements of a specific tender and meeting the requirements for the certification of products and production. Substantiated the expediency of studying specific features of doing business in foreign countries.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125442626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article presents the results of a study on the size, qualitative parameters and structural-dynamic characteristics of the employment in Ukraine's transport sector. The author analyzes the peculiarities in the distribution of structural changes that have taken place in the sectoral, professional and educational composition of this country's transport labor and measures their depth. The structural shifts are considered as a result of the redistribution of labor between industries, professions and educational levels, as well as employment circulation between different professional and educational segments within the subsectors of Ukrainian transport complex. Applying the simulation of multiplicative factor systems and the method of decomposition according to the scheme of isolated influence of factors, the author estimates intensity and direction of the changes in the professional characteristics of the employed in Ukraine's transport sector in connection with its branch restructuring. In addition, the article reveals the nature of the interaction between the educational structure of this country's transport labor and the inter-sectoral and inter-professional shifts in the employment. An imbalance has been revealed in the distribution of Ukrainian employed in the transport sector by professions and education level, and the determination of the nature of these differences made it possible to make reasonable assumptions about their causes and ways of their mitigation. The main empirical base that made it possible to carry out the presented research is the materials of population surveys on economic activity. And the obtained data array on the dynamics and characteristics of the labor employed in Ukraine's transport sector provides rich analytical material that can be used in determining a government employment policy to be aimed at solving urgent problems of the national labor market.
{"title":"Employment in Ukrainian transport sector: size, quality parameters and structural-dynamic characteristics","authors":"Y. Yuryk","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.04.093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.04.093","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of a study on the size, qualitative parameters and structural-dynamic characteristics of the employment in Ukraine's transport sector. The author analyzes the peculiarities in the distribution of structural changes that have taken place in the sectoral, professional and educational composition of this country's transport labor and measures their depth. The structural shifts are considered as a result of the redistribution of labor between industries, professions and educational levels, as well as employment circulation between different professional and educational segments within the subsectors of Ukrainian transport complex. Applying the simulation of multiplicative factor systems and the method of decomposition according to the scheme of isolated influence of factors, the author estimates intensity and direction of the changes in the professional characteristics of the employed in Ukraine's transport sector in connection with its branch restructuring. In addition, the article reveals the nature of the interaction between the educational structure of this country's transport labor and the inter-sectoral and inter-professional shifts in the employment. An imbalance has been revealed in the distribution of Ukrainian employed in the transport sector by professions and education level, and the determination of the nature of these differences made it possible to make reasonable assumptions about their causes and ways of their mitigation. The main empirical base that made it possible to carry out the presented research is the materials of population surveys on economic activity. And the obtained data array on the dynamics and characteristics of the labor employed in Ukraine's transport sector provides rich analytical material that can be used in determining a government employment policy to be aimed at solving urgent problems of the national labor market.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134472923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern vector of agriculture policy development in leading countries is oriented to complementary characteristics of agro-food systems, where production of actual and public goods are combined. Taking into account the complementary nature of connections between agriculture and rural developments, specific policy regulations and financial instruments are used in order to keep the proper balance. For transition to such policy-making in Ukrainian realities, it makes sense to start using the term "agrosphere" as a united subject of state regulation and state financial support instead of the currently used term "agro-industrial complex" or agrarian sector. Introduction of the term of agrosphere in the policy-making process would ensure that regulation is made for a multi-level and multi-functional system, covering social, economic and environmental aspects, directly connected with food self-fulfillment and export potential fulfillment. Complementarity in agrosphere development is envisioned as inter-connection between agriculture and rural area, under which, as a result of their cooperation, effectiveness of the production, and welfare of rural population increase and broad recovery of production resources is ensured in a certain territory. Transition to complementary development of agrosphere consists in the introduction of the new system of state regulation, which can protect traditional agriculture and village based on public understanding of their complementary nature and form general opposition to the current state of relations between agro-business, natural resources and rural communities. This would require significant public expenditures (first of all financial), involvement of socially responsible private investments and environmentally safe technologies, and specific political instruments, in particular science-based socioeconomic planning on the national level.
{"title":"Imperatives of complementary development in agrosphere","authors":"O. Borodina","doi":"10.15407/eip2017.04.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.125","url":null,"abstract":"Modern vector of agriculture policy development in leading countries is oriented to complementary characteristics of agro-food systems, where production of actual and public goods are combined. Taking into account the complementary nature of connections between agriculture and rural developments, specific policy regulations and financial instruments are used in order to keep the proper balance. For transition to such policy-making in Ukrainian realities, it makes sense to start using the term \"agrosphere\" as a united subject of state regulation and state financial support instead of the currently used term \"agro-industrial complex\" or agrarian sector. Introduction of the term of agrosphere in the policy-making process would ensure that regulation is made for a multi-level and multi-functional system, covering social, economic and environmental aspects, directly connected with food self-fulfillment and export potential fulfillment. Complementarity in agrosphere development is envisioned as inter-connection between agriculture and rural area, under which, as a result of their cooperation, effectiveness of the production, and welfare of rural population increase and broad recovery of production resources is ensured in a certain territory. Transition to complementary development of agrosphere consists in the introduction of the new system of state regulation, which can protect traditional agriculture and village based on public understanding of their complementary nature and form general opposition to the current state of relations between agro-business, natural resources and rural communities. This would require significant public expenditures (first of all financial), involvement of socially responsible private investments and environmentally safe technologies, and specific political instruments, in particular science-based socioeconomic planning on the national level.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130594972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides an analysis of the trends in agricultural land use and land concentration in the EU. Land grabbing, a new emerging trend in the EU, is in the focus. The authors argue there is an exclusion of agricultural lands from local and rural development, and from agriculture, while agrarian investments fail to meet the principles for responsible investments. The paper aims to examine and summarize the factors that drive agricultural land concentration and grabbing in the EU, and define the extent of these processes and their consequences. The authors show that the European and national legislations fail in preventing negative consequences of agricultural land concentration and grabbing, and in ensuring the priority of family farms as a basis of the EU agrarian system. The analysis focuses on such drivers of these processes as significant difference in land prices, speculations, emerging and strengthening corporate sector in the agriculture, imperfection of the EU sectoral policies and conflicts between them and between their instruments. The analysis confirms that increasing number of large-scale land contracts, monopolizing control over agricultural lands, and structural changes in land use decrease the viability of both agricultural sector and rural areas. The land grabbing leads to replacing the family farming model with industrial farming and large corporate enterprises usually established with participation of international capital. The above mentioned phenomena threaten the European agrarian system, sustainable and multifunctional agriculture, food security, and environment. The authors prove the necessity of an integrated and differentiated approach to deal with agricultural land concentration and grabbing due to the variable nature of the underlying factors.
{"title":"Agricultural land concentration and land grabbing in the EU: modern challenges","authors":"O. Borodina, V. Yarovyi, O. Mykhailenko","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.04.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.04.109","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an analysis of the trends in agricultural land use and land concentration in the EU. Land grabbing, a new emerging trend in the EU, is in the focus. The authors argue there is an exclusion of agricultural lands from local and rural development, and from agriculture, while agrarian investments fail to meet the principles for responsible investments. The paper aims to examine and summarize the factors that drive agricultural land concentration and grabbing in the EU, and define the extent of these processes and their consequences. The authors show that the European and national legislations fail in preventing negative consequences of agricultural land concentration and grabbing, and in ensuring the priority of family farms as a basis of the EU agrarian system. The analysis focuses on such drivers of these processes as significant difference in land prices, speculations, emerging and strengthening corporate sector in the agriculture, imperfection of the EU sectoral policies and conflicts between them and between their instruments. The analysis confirms that increasing number of large-scale land contracts, monopolizing control over agricultural lands, and structural changes in land use decrease the viability of both agricultural sector and rural areas. The land grabbing leads to replacing the family farming model with industrial farming and large corporate enterprises usually established with participation of international capital. The above mentioned phenomena threaten the European agrarian system, sustainable and multifunctional agriculture, food security, and environment. The authors prove the necessity of an integrated and differentiated approach to deal with agricultural land concentration and grabbing due to the variable nature of the underlying factors.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121152742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The author analyzes the state of innovation activity in Ukraine, in particular, the structure of sources for its funding. The article provides various conclusions as to the possibility of increasing the concentration of innovation sources in the process of innovation. The author indicates a range of problems suppressing the innovative activity of enterprises. Among them are: 1) lack of financial resources and the absence of effective incentives on the part of the state; 2) poor legal base; 3) low innovation potential of the industrial enterprises. The state system of selection and financing of innovative projects has been investigated, and various recommendations developed for improving the current system of ranking of state innovation projects. As to the innovation potential of industrial enterprises, it is argued that, among other factors, a significant negative influence, which inhibits the development of innovations in the domestic industry, is a consequence of the technically, technologically, and morally outdated production base and inadequate personnel provision. In the context of the latter, the author considers the migration of Ukrainian "intellectual potential" and its implications for this country's further economic and innovative development.
{"title":"Innovation activity in Ukraine: main trends and problems","authors":"H. Yershova","doi":"10.15407/eip2017.04.137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.137","url":null,"abstract":"The author analyzes the state of innovation activity in Ukraine, in particular, the structure of sources for its funding. The article provides various conclusions as to the possibility of increasing the concentration of innovation sources in the process of innovation. The author indicates a range of problems suppressing the innovative activity of enterprises. Among them are: 1) lack of financial resources and the absence of effective incentives on the part of the state; 2) poor legal base; 3) low innovation potential of the industrial enterprises. The state system of selection and financing of innovative projects has been investigated, and various recommendations developed for improving the current system of ranking of state innovation projects. As to the innovation potential of industrial enterprises, it is argued that, among other factors, a significant negative influence, which inhibits the development of innovations in the domestic industry, is a consequence of the technically, technologically, and morally outdated production base and inadequate personnel provision. In the context of the latter, the author considers the migration of Ukrainian \"intellectual potential\" and its implications for this country's further economic and innovative development.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126834812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article deals with the transformation processes that took place in the credit market of Ukraine under the influence of the modern financial and economic crisis. In the article have been analyzed problems and factors that caused the long stagnation of the credit activity in banking sector especially in certain types of bank lending. The author notes that the main reason of such a long credit contraction in the banking sector was the week institutional development of the Ukrainian credit market in previous periods. It is the lack of developed credit market institutions that caused problems of proper protection of the creditors' rights, non-performing loans management and hedging of market risks. In the article has been pointed out on the discovered tendency of active growth of the share of loans issued in the non-banking sector. At this stage, the trend is quite active, but mostly occurs in the segment of short-term consumer lending and in the area of instruments alternative to mortgage lending. Despite the market nature of the process reflecting this trend, due to the underdeveloped institutional infrastructure, it also poses a potential risk of increased fraud activity and over-indebtedness of the households. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and processes in the Ukrainian credit market the author has made conclusions about the importance of state assistance in the development of regulatory and legal support of the Ukrainian credit market in order to restore bank lending and strengthen supervision of the non-banking sector of the credit market. It is emphasized that without a state-initiated solution of the institutional problems present on the credit market of Ukraine, the recovery of the credit market may take an indefinite period of time.
{"title":"Trends and prospects of the Ukrainian credit market post-crisis development","authors":"Y. Bublyk","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.04.059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.04.059","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the transformation processes that took place in the credit market of Ukraine under the influence of the modern financial and economic crisis. In the article have been analyzed problems and factors that caused the long stagnation of the credit activity in banking sector especially in certain types of bank lending. The author notes that the main reason of such a long credit contraction in the banking sector was the week institutional development of the Ukrainian credit market in previous periods. It is the lack of developed credit market institutions that caused problems of proper protection of the creditors' rights, non-performing loans management and hedging of market risks. In the article has been pointed out on the discovered tendency of active growth of the share of loans issued in the non-banking sector. At this stage, the trend is quite active, but mostly occurs in the segment of short-term consumer lending and in the area of instruments alternative to mortgage lending. Despite the market nature of the process reflecting this trend, due to the underdeveloped institutional infrastructure, it also poses a potential risk of increased fraud activity and over-indebtedness of the households. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and processes in the Ukrainian credit market the author has made conclusions about the importance of state assistance in the development of regulatory and legal support of the Ukrainian credit market in order to restore bank lending and strengthen supervision of the non-banking sector of the credit market. It is emphasized that without a state-initiated solution of the institutional problems present on the credit market of Ukraine, the recovery of the credit market may take an indefinite period of time.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115197969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article presents the experience of establishing a system for the early identification of macroeconomic imbalances and introduction of the procedure for their correction in the EU member states. Considered the main components: methodology, normative legal basis, and results. The author investigates methodological and monitoring materials related to the detection of macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the main indicators of living standards developed in Ukrainian state executive bodies. It has been proved that official analytical materials are insufficient to identify the main macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the fact that Ukraine has neither a mechanism for responding to identified imbalances nor a system for the prevention of crisis phenomena. The author provides various recommendations on the introduction of mechanisms for the early detection of macroeconomic imbalances and the implementation of systemic measures for their correction. To monitor the domestic imbalances, author proposes the main indicators of the macrostructural institutional scoreboard; and, to monitor the external ones – indicators of the scoreboard of foreign economic imbalances, as well as indicators for the scoreboards of labor activity and social imbalances. To make decisions on prevention or correction of imbalances, it is proposed to create, at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, a Commission for the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances whose authorities would include a compulsory expertise (with the right of rejection) of all bills that could provoke emergence or strengthening of macroeconomic imbalances.
{"title":"European experience of early identification of macroeconomic imbalances: recommendations for Ukraine","authors":"I. Kryuchkova","doi":"10.15407/eip2017.04.039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.039","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the experience of establishing a system for the early identification of macroeconomic imbalances and introduction of the procedure for their correction in the EU member states. Considered the main components: methodology, normative legal basis, and results. The author investigates methodological and monitoring materials related to the detection of macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the main indicators of living standards developed in Ukrainian state executive bodies. It has been proved that official analytical materials are insufficient to identify the main macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the fact that Ukraine has neither a mechanism for responding to identified imbalances nor a system for the prevention of crisis phenomena. The author provides various recommendations on the introduction of mechanisms for the early detection of macroeconomic imbalances and the implementation of systemic measures for their correction. To monitor the domestic imbalances, author proposes the main indicators of the macrostructural institutional scoreboard; and, to monitor the external ones – indicators of the scoreboard of foreign economic imbalances, as well as indicators for the scoreboards of labor activity and social imbalances. To make decisions on prevention or correction of imbalances, it is proposed to create, at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, a Commission for the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances whose authorities would include a compulsory expertise (with the right of rejection) of all bills that could provoke emergence or strengthening of macroeconomic imbalances.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"260 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116601894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2016, after two years of economic downturn, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 2.3%. Some researchers explained the resumed economic growth with an increase in domestic consumer and investment demand. Contrary to these conclusions, the article presents the facts that the growth of the Ukrainian economy began as a result of depreciation under the influence of inflation of the main factors of production, that is, labor, land, and capital. Reduced cost of their purchase allowed the businessmen, even with reduced output, to receive additional revenues and direct them to increase wages and to finance investment projects. In 2016-2017, the annual growth rate of the Ukrainian economy did not exceed 2.5%. This limited the government's ability to raise living standards, overcome poverty, and serve and repay the foreign debt. To solve these problems, annual economic growth should exceed 6%. The article provides evidence that cheap domestic production resources are insufficient to speed up Ukraine's economic growth of Ukraine in the future. In order to initiate such a growth, it is necessary to create a motivational mechanism that would encourage the business to shift from the export of raw materials over their deep processing into new goods and services with greater added value. The author proposes to create such a mechanism via institutional reforms that would address the three key tasks. They include: redistributing business and state revenues in favor of the households to increase their demand for innovative and/or higher-quality products; increasing the level of non-price competition between the producers of such items; and creating long-term incentives for them to invest in new types of goods and services.
{"title":"Economic growth in Ukraine: problems and revival prospects","authors":"O. Pustovoit","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.04.071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.04.071","url":null,"abstract":"In 2016, after two years of economic downturn, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 2.3%. Some researchers explained the resumed economic growth with an increase in domestic consumer and investment demand. Contrary to these conclusions, the article presents the facts that the growth of the Ukrainian economy began as a result of depreciation under the influence of inflation of the main factors of production, that is, labor, land, and capital. Reduced cost of their purchase allowed the businessmen, even with reduced output, to receive additional revenues and direct them to increase wages and to finance investment projects. In 2016-2017, the annual growth rate of the Ukrainian economy did not exceed 2.5%. This limited the government's ability to raise living standards, overcome poverty, and serve and repay the foreign debt. To solve these problems, annual economic growth should exceed 6%. The article provides evidence that cheap domestic production resources are insufficient to speed up Ukraine's economic growth of Ukraine in the future. In order to initiate such a growth, it is necessary to create a motivational mechanism that would encourage the business to shift from the export of raw materials over their deep processing into new goods and services with greater added value. The author proposes to create such a mechanism via institutional reforms that would address the three key tasks. They include: redistributing business and state revenues in favor of the households to increase their demand for innovative and/or higher-quality products; increasing the level of non-price competition between the producers of such items; and creating long-term incentives for them to invest in new types of goods and services.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134353963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The spread of globalization processes and active involvement of small economies in them lead to the fact that their economic development depends to a large extent on existing tendencies and future trends of the world economy. Ukraine in the global dimension is a small economy: its share in global GDP is insignificant, moreover, it declined from 0.971% in 1992 to 0.294% in 2016; and in 2018-2022, even under the optimistic scenarios of the IMF, the figure will further decrease and will fluctuate in the range of 0.289-0.292%. A critical analysis of such a scenario of events evokes the question: how close Ukraine's economy is to the limit of its production potential, and which economic policy (within the framework of global factors) will be efficient in ensuring both recovery and acceleration of economic growth. The purpose of the article is to present the main global trends in the development of the world economy and the reasons for their formation, which makes it possible not only to identify those which will influence the prospects of the development of the domestic economy, but also justify the need for a well-balanced application of the instruments of economic policy that could support a positive trend of Ukraine's long-term development. Among the trends with a direct impact on the prospects for the development of global economy, today it is worth highlighting the key one, which has become the reflection of an important structural shift in the dynamics of the world economy. This key trend consists in the fact that, despite the retention of close relationships and dependence of the developing countries on the industrial ones, the output growth rate in the developing countries is higher, while those of the industrial ones are low. Hence the former have become the drivers of global economy. Decomposition of the growth rate of real GDP for the global economy and the two groups of countries (advanced economies, on the one hand, and developing countries and emerging markets on the other hand) into two components - long-term trend and cyclical fluctuations (using the Hodrick-Prescott filter in Eviews 9.0 package) made it possible to show not only the transition from the stage of divergence to convergence of the two groups of countries, which are different both in terms of development and potential, but also emphasize the emergence of a negative trend in the development of the world economy at the current stage. Comparison of the long-term development trend of Ukraine with that of the European Union has shown that, in contrast to the long-term stable development of European countries, the dynamics of the Ukrainian trend has pronounced periods of growth and decline similar to those in the former CIS countries. The cyclical recessions in Ukraine are deeper than in the former CIS countries and the EU, which testifies to the serious old problems in this economy. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in real and potential GDP of Ukraine has confirmed the n
{"title":"Growth prospects of Ukrainian economy against the background of global trends","authors":"S. Shumska","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.03.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"The spread of globalization processes and active involvement of small economies in them lead to the fact that their economic development depends to a large extent on existing tendencies and future trends of the world economy. Ukraine in the global dimension is a small economy: its share in global GDP is insignificant, moreover, it declined from 0.971% in 1992 to 0.294% in 2016; and in 2018-2022, even under the optimistic scenarios of the IMF, the figure will further decrease and will fluctuate in the range of 0.289-0.292%. A critical analysis of such a scenario of events evokes the question: how close Ukraine's economy is to the limit of its production potential, and which economic policy (within the framework of global factors) will be efficient in ensuring both recovery and acceleration of economic growth. The purpose of the article is to present the main global trends in the development of the world economy and the reasons for their formation, which makes it possible not only to identify those which will influence the prospects of the development of the domestic economy, but also justify the need for a well-balanced application of the instruments of economic policy that could support a positive trend of Ukraine's long-term development. Among the trends with a direct impact on the prospects for the development of global economy, today it is worth highlighting the key one, which has become the reflection of an important structural shift in the dynamics of the world economy. This key trend consists in the fact that, despite the retention of close relationships and dependence of the developing countries on the industrial ones, the output growth rate in the developing countries is higher, while those of the industrial ones are low. Hence the former have become the drivers of global economy. Decomposition of the growth rate of real GDP for the global economy and the two groups of countries (advanced economies, on the one hand, and developing countries and emerging markets on the other hand) into two components - long-term trend and cyclical fluctuations (using the Hodrick-Prescott filter in Eviews 9.0 package) made it possible to show not only the transition from the stage of divergence to convergence of the two groups of countries, which are different both in terms of development and potential, but also emphasize the emergence of a negative trend in the development of the world economy at the current stage. Comparison of the long-term development trend of Ukraine with that of the European Union has shown that, in contrast to the long-term stable development of European countries, the dynamics of the Ukrainian trend has pronounced periods of growth and decline similar to those in the former CIS countries. The cyclical recessions in Ukraine are deeper than in the former CIS countries and the EU, which testifies to the serious old problems in this economy. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in real and potential GDP of Ukraine has confirmed the n","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"164 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115393334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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