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When to Use Counterfactuals in Causal Historiography: Methods for Semantics and Inference
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251314039
Tay Jeong
According to the interventionist framework of actual causality, causal claims in history are ultimately claims about special types of functional dependencies between variables, which consist not only of actual events but also of corresponding counterfactual states of affairs. Instead of advocating the methodological use of counterfactuals tout court, we propose specific circumstances in historical writing where counterfactual reasoning comes in most handy. At the level of semantics, that is, the specification of the variables and their possible values, an explicit specification of the latent contrast classes becomes particularly useful in situations where one may be prompted to take an event that is pre-empted by the antecedent of interest as its proper causal contrast. At the level of inference, we argue that cases in which two or more antecedents appear to be playing a similar role tend to fumble our pretheoretical intuition about cause and propose a sequence of counterfactual tests based on actual examples from causal historiography.
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引用次数: 0
The Integration of Bayesian Regression Analysis and Bayesian Process Tracing in Mixed-Methods Research
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241295336
Lion Behrens, Ingo Rohlfing
In this article, we develop a mixed-methods design that combines Bayesian regression with Bayesian process tracing. A fully Bayesian multimethod design allows one to include empirical knowledge at each stage of the analysis and to coherently transfer information from the quantitative to the qualitative analysis, and vice versa. We present a complete mixed-methods workflow explaining how this is accomplished and how to integrate both methods. It is demonstrated how to use the posterior highest density interval and the Bayes factor from the regression analysis to update the prior level of confidence about what mechanisms possibly connect the cause to the outcome. It is further shown how to choose cases for the qualitative analysis through posterior predictive sampling. We illustrate this approach with an empirical analysis of colonial development and compare it with alternative designs, including nested analysis and the Bayesian integration of qualitative and quantitative methods.
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引用次数: 0
Improving Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measures on Gender and Age Stereotypes by Means of Piloting Methods 通过试点方法提高性别和年龄刻板印象测量的跨文化可比性
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241307600
Natalja Menold, Patricia Hadler, Cornelia Neuert
The study addresses the effects of piloting methods on the cross-cultural comparability and reliability of the measurement of gender and age stereotypes. We conducted a summative evaluation of expert reviews, cognitive pretests and web probing. We first piloted a gender role, an ageism, and a children stereotypes instrument in German and American English. We then randomly assigned the original and piloted versions to respondents in Germany and the United States using an online survey experiment and quota samples. No configural invariance was shown by the original instruments and the reliability of the gender role instrument was insufficiently low. The results show that piloting methods increased reliability and improved measurement invariance, although the effects varied by topic. Cross-cultural expert reviews and web probing provided more consistent results than other methods. A combination of web probing and cross-cultural expert reviews can maximize both reliability and measurement invariance.
本研究探讨了试点方法对性别和年龄刻板印象测量的跨文化可比性和可靠性的影响。我们对专家评论、认知预测试和网络探测进行了总结性评估。我们首先在德语和美式英语中试用了性别角色、年龄歧视和儿童刻板印象工具。然后,我们通过在线调查实验和配额样本,将原始版本和试点版本随机分配给德国和美国的受访者。原始工具没有显示出结构上的不变性,性别角色工具的可靠性也不够低。结果表明,导频方法提高了可靠性,改善了测量不变性,尽管效果因主题而异。跨文化专家评论和网络探索提供了比其他方法更一致的结果。网络探测和跨文化专家评论的结合可以最大限度地提高可靠性和测量不变性。
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引用次数: 0
The Rise in Occupational Coding Mismatches and Occupational Mobility, 1991–2020 1991-2020 年职业编码错配和职业流动性的上升
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241303517
Andrew Taeho Kim, ChangHwan Kim
Occupation is a construct prone to classification mismatches by coders and description inconsistency by respondents. We explore whether mismatches in occupational coding have recently increased, what factors are associated with the rise in mismatches, and how the rise affects estimates of intragenerational occupational mobility. Utilizing the 1991–2020 Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey, which collects information on respondents’ current occupation and the previous year’s main occupation, we identify coding mismatches and compare the probabilities of occupational mobility based on four combinations of two variables. Our results show that not only do the estimates of occupational mobility between two adjacent years vary substantially across measures, but also that the magnitudes of intragenerational occupational mobility across measures become increasingly decoupled over time. We demonstrate that the likely cause of this divergence is the rise in coding mismatches between coders. We discuss the implications of our findings.
职业是一个容易被编码者分类不匹配和被调查者描述不一致的结构。我们探讨了职业编码中的错配是否最近有所增加,哪些因素与错配的增加有关,以及这种增加如何影响代际职业流动性的估计。利用1991-2020年《当前人口调查年度社会经济补充》收集了受访者当前职业和前一年主要职业的信息,我们识别了编码不匹配,并基于两个变量的四种组合比较了职业流动的概率。我们的研究结果表明,不仅相邻两年之间的职业流动性估计值在不同测量方法之间存在很大差异,而且随着时间的推移,不同测量方法之间的代际职业流动性的大小也越来越不耦合。我们证明,这种差异的可能原因是编码人员之间编码不匹配的增加。我们讨论了我们的发现的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Using Google Maps to Generate Organizational Sampling Frames 使用谷歌地图生成组织采样帧
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241305095
Brad R Fulton, David P King
Organizational researchers use a variety of methods to obtain sampling frames. The utility of these methods, however, is constrained by access restrictions, limited coverage, prohibitive costs, and cumbersome formats. This article presents a new method for generating organizational sampling frames that is cost-effective, uses publicly available data, and can produce sampling frames for many geographic areas in the U.S. The Python-based program we developed systematically scans the Google Maps platform to identify organizations of interest and retrieve their contact information. We demonstrate the program's viability and utility by generating a sampling frame of religious congregations in the U.S. To assess Google Maps’ coverage and representativeness of such congregations, we examined two nationally representative samples of congregations and censuses of congregations in a small, medium, and large city. We found that Google Maps contains approximately 98% of those congregations––extensive coverage that ensures a high degree of representativeness. This study provides evidence that using Google Maps to generate sampling frames can improve the process for obtaining representative samples for organizational studies by reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and providing greater coverage and representativeness.
组织研究人员使用各种方法来获得采样帧。然而,这些方法的效用受到访问限制、有限的覆盖范围、高昂的成本和繁琐的格式的限制。本文提出了一种新的方法来生成组织抽样框架,这种方法具有成本效益,使用公开可用的数据,并且可以为美国的许多地理区域生成抽样框架。我们开发的基于python的程序系统地扫描谷歌Maps平台,以识别感兴趣的组织并检索其联系信息。我们通过生成美国宗教集会的抽样框架来证明该计划的可行性和实用性。为了评估谷歌Maps的覆盖范围和此类集会的代表性,我们检查了两个具有全国代表性的集会样本,并对小、中、大城市的集会进行了普查。我们发现谷歌Maps包含了大约98%的这些会众——广泛的覆盖范围确保了高度的代表性。本研究提供的证据表明,使用谷歌Maps生成采样帧可以通过降低成本、提高效率、提供更大的覆盖率和代表性来改善获得组织研究代表性样本的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Examining Variation in Survey Costs Across Surveys 检查不同调查中调查成本的差异
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241298914
Kristen Olson, John Stevenson, Nadia Assad, Lindsey Witt-Swanson, Cameron P.E. Jones, Amanda Ganshert, Jennifer Dykema
Self-administered surveys may be administered with a single mode or mixed data collection modes. How mixing modes of data collection affects survey costs is not well understood. We examine whether cost structures differ for mail-only versus web+mail mixed-mode surveys, what design features are associated with costs, and whether survey costs are associated with response rates. Using administrative survey cost data from two academic survey centers, we find that survey costs per sampled unit and per complete vary substantially across individual surveys. The average cost per sampled unit is surprisingly similar across mail-only and web+mail surveys. How the budget is allocated across printing, postage, incentive, and staff time varies across these designs: printing and postage costs are higher in mail-only surveys, and more of the budget is allocated to incentive costs and project management costs in web+mail surveys. Furthermore, higher cost surveys are associated with higher response rates, particularly for incentive costs.
自我管理的调查可以采用单一模式或混合数据收集模式。数据收集的混合模式如何影响调查成本尚不清楚。我们研究了纯邮件与网络+邮件混合模式调查的成本结构是否不同,与成本相关的设计特征,以及调查成本是否与回复率相关。利用两个学术调查中心的行政调查成本数据,我们发现每个抽样单位和每个完整的调查成本在不同的调查中差异很大。每个抽样单位的平均成本在纯邮件调查和web+邮件调查中惊人地相似。预算在印刷、邮资、激励和员工时间上的分配方式因设计而不同:在纯邮件调查中,印刷和邮资成本更高,而在网络+邮件调查中,更多的预算分配给了激励成本和项目管理成本。此外,调查成本越高,回复率也越高,特别是在激励成本方面。
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引用次数: 0
Sharing Big Video Data: Ethics, Methods, and Technology 共享大视频数据:伦理、方法和技术
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241277524
Joanne W. Golann, Lori Bougher, Richard Hall, Thomas J. Espenshade
Data sharing and transparency are becoming more common across the social sciences. In this article, we provide an overview of ethical, methodological, and technological considerations and challenges when developing large video-based datasets intended to be shared across researchers. We cover data security, storage, and access as well as data documentation, tagging, and transcription. Our discussions are framed by our own efforts to create a secure and user-friendly database for the New Jersey Families Study, a two-week, in-home video study of 21 families with a 2- to 4-year-old child. In collecting over 11,470 hours of video data, the New Jersey Families Study is one of the very few large-scale video projects in the field of sociology. This project has provided us with a unique opportunity to explore video data management and data sharing techniques, particularly in light of a host of cutting-edge developments in data science.
数据共享和透明度在社会科学领域越来越普遍。在本文中,我们将概述在开发大型视频数据集以供研究人员共享时,在伦理、方法和技术方面需要考虑的问题和面临的挑战。我们将讨论数据安全、存储和访问以及数据记录、标记和转录等问题。我们的讨论以我们自己为新泽西家庭研究(New Jersey Families Study)创建一个安全且用户友好的数据库所做的努力为框架,该研究是对 21 个有一个 2-4 岁孩子的家庭进行的为期两周的家庭视频研究。新泽西家庭研究收集了超过 11,470 小时的视频数据,是社会学领域为数不多的大型视频项目之一。该项目为我们提供了一个探索视频数据管理和数据共享技术的难得机会,尤其是在数据科学取得一系列前沿发展的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM) 健康预期的动态:多重多态法(MMM)简介
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268775
Tianyu Shen, Collin F. Payne, Maria Jahromi
Many studies have compared individual measures of health expectancy across older populations by time-invariant characteristics. However, very few have included time-varying variables when calculating health expectancy. Even among older adults, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics are likely to change over the life course, and these changes may have substantial implications for health outcomes. This paper proposes a multiple multistate method (MMM) that situates the multistate model within the broader family of vector autoregressive models. Our approach allows the incorporation of the coevolution of multiple life course factors and provides a flexible yet simple way to model two or more time-varying variables with the multistate model. We demonstrate the MMM in two empirical applications, showing the flexibility of the approach to explore health expectancies with complex state spaces.
许多研究通过时间不变的特征来比较不同老年人群的预期健康状况。然而,很少有研究在计算健康预期寿命时将时变变量包括在内。即使在老年人中,社会经济和人口特征也可能在生命过程中发生变化,而这些变化可能会对健康结果产生重大影响。本文提出了一种多重多态方法(MMM),将多态模型置于更广泛的向量自回归模型系列中。我们的方法允许纳入多个生命过程因素的共同演化,并提供了一种灵活而简单的方法,利用多态模型对两个或更多时变变量进行建模。我们在两个实证应用中演示了多态自回归模型,展示了该方法在探索具有复杂状态空间的健康预期方面的灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
Seeded Topic Models in Digital Archives: Analyzing Interpretations of Immigration in Swedish Newspapers, 1945–2019 数字档案中的种子主题模型:分析 1945-2019 年瑞典报纸中对移民的解读
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268453
Miriam Hurtado Bodell, Måns Magnusson, Marc Keuschnigg
Sociologists are discussing the need for more formal ways to extract meaning from digital text archives. We focus attention on the seeded topic model, a semi-supervised extension to the standard topic model that allows sociological knowledge to be infused into the computational learning of meaning structures. Seed words help crystallize topics around known concepts, while utilizing topic models’ functionality to identify associations in text based on word co-occurrences. The method estimates a concept’s shared interpretation (or framing) via its associations with other frequently co-occurring topics. In a case study, we extract longitudinal measures of media frames regarding immigration from a vast corpus of millions of Swedish newspaper articles from the period 1945–2019. We infer turning points that partition the immigration discourse into meaningful eras and locate Sweden’s era of multicultural ideals that coined its tolerant reputation.
社会学家们正在讨论是否需要更正规的方法来从数字文本档案中提取意义。我们重点关注种子主题模型,它是标准主题模型的半监督扩展,可将社会学知识注入意义结构的计算学习中。种子词有助于围绕已知概念形成话题,同时利用话题模型的功能,根据词的共现情况识别文本中的关联。该方法通过概念与其他频繁出现的主题之间的关联来估算概念的共同解释(或框架)。在一项案例研究中,我们从 1945-2019 年间瑞典数百万篇报纸文章的庞大语料库中提取了有关移民的媒体框架的纵向度量。我们推断出将移民话语划分为有意义时代的转折点,并定位了瑞典的多元文化理想时代,该时代造就了瑞典宽容的声誉。
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引用次数: 0
A Primer on Deep Learning for Causal Inference 因果推理深度学习入门
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241234866
Bernard J. Koch, Tim Sainburg, Pablo Geraldo Bastías, Song Jiang, Yizhou Sun, Jacob G. Foster
This primer systematizes the emerging literature on causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction to building and optimizing custom deep learning models and shows how to adapt them to estimate/predict heterogeneous treatment effects. It also discusses ongoing work to extend causal inference to settings where confounding is nonlinear, time-varying, or encoded in text, networks, and images. To maximize accessibility, we also introduce prerequisite concepts from causal inference and deep learning. The primer differs from other treatments of deep learning and causal inference in its sharp focus on observational causal estimation, its extended exposition of key algorithms, and its detailed tutorials for implementing, training, and selecting among deep estimators in TensorFlow 2 and PyTorch.
本入门书系统整理了在潜在结果框架下使用深度神经网络进行因果推断的新兴文献。它直观地介绍了如何构建和优化自定义深度学习模型,并展示了如何调整这些模型以估计/预测异质性治疗效果。它还讨论了将因果推理扩展到非线性、时变或以文本、网络和图像编码的混杂情况的当前工作。为了最大限度地便于读者理解,我们还介绍了因果推理和深度学习的先决概念。这本入门书与其他深度学习和因果推理的论著不同之处在于,它专注于观察性因果估计,扩展阐述了关键算法,并提供了在 TensorFlow 2 和 PyTorch 中实施、训练和选择深度估计器的详细教程。
{"title":"A Primer on Deep Learning for Causal Inference","authors":"Bernard J. Koch, Tim Sainburg, Pablo Geraldo Bastías, Song Jiang, Yizhou Sun, Jacob G. Foster","doi":"10.1177/00491241241234866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00491241241234866","url":null,"abstract":"This primer systematizes the emerging literature on causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction to building and optimizing custom deep learning models and shows how to adapt them to estimate/predict heterogeneous treatment effects. It also discusses ongoing work to extend causal inference to settings where confounding is nonlinear, time-varying, or encoded in text, networks, and images. To maximize accessibility, we also introduce prerequisite concepts from causal inference and deep learning. The primer differs from other treatments of deep learning and causal inference in its sharp focus on observational causal estimation, its extended exposition of key algorithms, and its detailed tutorials for implementing, training, and selecting among deep estimators in TensorFlow 2 and PyTorch.","PeriodicalId":21849,"journal":{"name":"Sociological Methods & Research","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141994354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Sociological Methods & Research
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