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The Causal Effect of Parent Occupation on Child Occupation: A Multivalued Treatment with Positivity Constraints 父母职业对子女职业的因果影响:一个具有正性约束的多值处理
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251338412
Ian Lundberg, Daniel Molitor, Jennie E. Brand
To what degree does parent occupation cause a child’s occupational attainment? We articulate this causal question in the potential outcomes framework. Empirically, we show that adjustment for only two confounding variables substantially reduces the estimated association between parent and child occupation in a U.S. cohort. Methodologically, we highlight complications that arise when the treatment variable (parent occupation) can take many categorical values. A central methodological hurdle is positivity: some occupations (e.g., lawyer) are simply never held by some parents (e.g., those who did not complete college). We show how to overcome this hurdle by reporting summaries within subgroups that focus attention on the causal quantities that can be credibly estimated. Future research should build on the longstanding tradition of descriptive mobility research to answer causal questions.
父母的职业在多大程度上影响孩子的职业成就?我们在潜在结果框架中阐明了这个因果问题。从经验上看,我们表明,在美国队列中,只有两个混杂变量的调整大大降低了父母和子女职业之间的估计关联。在方法上,我们强调了当治疗变量(父母职业)可以取许多分类值时出现的并发症。一个主要的方法障碍是积极性:一些职业(例如,律师)根本没有被一些父母(例如,那些没有完成大学学业的父母)从事过。我们展示了如何通过报告子组内的摘要来克服这一障碍,这些子组将注意力集中在可以可靠估计的因果数量上。未来的研究应该建立在长期的描述性流动性研究的传统上,以回答因果问题。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying Narrative Similarity Across Languages 量化不同语言之间的叙事相似性
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251340080
Hannah Waight, Solomon Messing, Anton Shirikov, Margaret E. Roberts, Jonathan Nagler, Jason Greenfield, Megan A. Brown, Kevin Aslett, Joshua A. Tucker
How can one understand the spread of ideas across text data? This is a key measurement problem in sociological inquiry, from the study of how interest groups shape media discourse, to the spread of policy across institutions, to the diffusion of organizational structures and institution themselves. To study how ideas and narratives diffuse across text, we must first develop a method to identify whether texts share the same information and narratives, rather than the same broad themes or exact features. We propose a novel approach to measure this quantity of interest, which we call “narrative similarity,” by using large language models to distill texts to their core ideas and then compare the similarity of claims rather than of words, phrases, or sentences. The result is an estimand much closer to narrative similarity than what is possible with past relevant alternatives, including exact text reuse, which returns lexically similar documents; topic modeling, which returns topically similar documents; or an array of alternative approaches. We devise an approach to providing out-of-sample measures of performance (precision, recall, F1) and show that our approach outperforms relevant alternatives by a large margin. We apply our approach to an important case study: The spread of Russian claims about the development of a Ukrainian bioweapons program in U.S. mainstream and fringe news websites. While we focus on news in this application, our approach can be applied more broadly to the study of propaganda, misinformation, diffusion of policy and cultural objects, among other topics.
人们如何理解思想在文本数据中的传播?这是社会学研究中的一个关键测量问题,从研究利益集团如何塑造媒体话语,到跨机构政策的传播,再到组织结构和机构本身的扩散。为了研究思想和叙事是如何在文本中传播的,我们必须首先开发一种方法来确定文本是否共享相同的信息和叙事,而不是相同的广泛主题或确切特征。我们提出了一种新的方法来衡量这种兴趣量,我们称之为“叙事相似性”,通过使用大型语言模型提取文本的核心思想,然后比较主张的相似性,而不是单词,短语或句子的相似性。与过去的相关替代方案相比,结果是一个更接近于叙事相似性的估计,包括精确的文本重用,它返回词汇相似的文档;主题建模,返回主题相似的文档;或者一系列的替代方法。我们设计了一种方法来提供样本外的性能度量(精度、召回率、F1),并表明我们的方法在很大程度上优于相关的替代方法。我们将我们的方法应用于一个重要的案例研究:俄罗斯关于乌克兰生物武器计划发展的说法在美国主流和边缘新闻网站上的传播。虽然我们在这个应用程序中关注的是新闻,但我们的方法可以更广泛地应用于研究宣传、错误信息、政策传播和文化对象等主题。
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引用次数: 0
An Optimal Stratification Method for Addressing Nonresponse Bias in Bayesian Adaptive Survey Design 贝叶斯自适应调查设计中一种解决无反应偏差的最优分层方法
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251345463
Yongchao Ma, Nino Mushkudiani, Barry Schouten
In a probability sampling survey, adaptive data collection strategies may be used to obtain a response set that minimizes nonresponse bias within budget constraints. Previous research has stratified the target population into subgroups defined by categories of auxiliary variables observed for the entire population, and tailored strategies to obtain similar response rates across subgroups. However, if the auxiliary variables are weakly correlated with the target survey variables, optimizing data collection for these subgroups may not reduce nonresponse bias and may actually increase the variance of survey estimates. In this paper, we propose a stratification method to identify subgroups by: (1) predicting values of target survey variables from auxiliary variables, and (2) forming subgroups with different response propensities based on the predicted values of target survey variables. By tailoring different data collection strategies to these subgroups, we can obtain a response set with less variation in response propensities across subgroups that are directly relevant to the target survey variables. Given this rationale, we also propose to measure nonresponse bias by the coefficient of variation of response propensities estimated from the predicted target survey variables. A case study using the Dutch Health Survey shows that the proposed stratification method generally produces less variation in response propensities with respect to the predicted target survey variables compared to traditional methods, thereby leading to a response set that better resembles the population.
在概率抽样调查中,可使用自适应数据收集策略来获得在预算约束下将非响应偏差最小化的响应集。以前的研究已经将目标人群分层为亚组,这些亚组是根据观察到的整个人群的辅助变量类别来定义的,并根据不同的策略在不同的亚组中获得相似的反应率。然而,如果辅助变量与目标调查变量的相关性较弱,优化这些子组的数据收集可能不会减少非反应偏差,实际上可能会增加调查估计的方差。本文提出了一种分层识别子群的方法:(1)从辅助变量中预测目标调查变量的值,(2)根据目标调查变量的预测值形成不同响应倾向的子群。通过为这些子组定制不同的数据收集策略,我们可以获得与目标调查变量直接相关的子组之间的响应倾向变化较小的响应集。鉴于这一基本原理,我们还建议通过从预测的目标调查变量估计的响应倾向变异系数来测量非响应偏差。利用荷兰健康调查进行的一项案例研究表明,与传统方法相比,拟议的分层方法对预测的目标调查变量的反应倾向产生的变化通常较小,从而导致更接近人口的反应集。
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引用次数: 0
Generative Multimodal Models for Social Science: An Application with Satellite and Streetscape Imagery 社会科学的生成多模态模型:卫星和街景图像的应用
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251339673
Tina Law, Elizabeth Roberto
Although there is growing social science research examining how generative AI models can be effectively and systematically applied to text-based tasks, whether and how these models can be used to analyze images remain open questions. In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing images with generative multimodal models, which consists of three core tasks: curation, discovery, and measurement and inference. We demonstrate this framework with an empirical application that uses OpenAI's GPT-4o model to analyze satellite and streetscape images ( n = 1,101) to identify built environment features that contribute to contemporary residential segregation in U.S. cities. We find that when GPT-4o is provided with well-defined image labels, the model labels images with high validity compared to expert labels. We conclude with thoughts for other use cases and discuss how social scientists can work collaboratively to ensure that image analysis with generative multimodal models is rigorous, reproducible, ethical, and sustainable.
尽管越来越多的社会科学研究探讨了如何有效和系统地将生成式人工智能模型应用于基于文本的任务,但这些模型是否以及如何用于分析图像仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。在本文中,我们介绍了一个使用生成式多模态模型分析图像的框架,该框架由三个核心任务组成:策展、发现、测量和推理。我们通过一个实证应用程序来演示该框架,该应用程序使用OpenAI的gpt - 40模型来分析卫星和街景图像(n = 1,101),以识别导致美国城市当代住宅隔离的建筑环境特征。我们发现,当gpt - 40提供定义良好的图像标签时,与专家标签相比,模型标记的图像具有更高的有效性。我们总结了其他用例的想法,并讨论了社会科学家如何协同工作,以确保具有生成式多模态模型的图像分析是严格的、可重复的、合乎道德的和可持续的。
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引用次数: 0
Using Large Language Models for Qualitative Analysis can Introduce Serious Bias 使用大型语言模型进行定性分析可能会引入严重的偏差
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251338246
Julian Ashwin, Aditya Chhabra, Vijayendra Rao
Large language models (LLMs) are quickly becoming ubiquitous, but their implications for social science research are not yet well understood. We ask whether LLMs can help code and analyse large-N qualitative data from open-ended interviews, with an application to transcripts of interviews with Rohingya refugees and their Bengali hosts in Bangladesh. We find that using LLMs to annotate and code text can introduce bias that can lead to misleading inferences. By bias we mean that the errors that LLMs make in coding interview transcripts are not random with respect to the characteristics of the interview subjects. Training simpler supervised models on high-quality human codes leads to less measurement error and bias than LLM annotations. Given that high quality codes are necessary in order to assess whether an LLM introduces bias, we argue that it may be preferable to train a bespoke model on a subset of transcripts coded by trained sociologists rather than use an LLM.
大型语言模型(llm)正迅速变得无处不在,但它们对社会科学研究的影响尚未得到很好的理解。我们询问法学硕士是否可以帮助编码和分析开放式访谈中的大n定性数据,并将其应用于对罗兴亚难民及其孟加拉国东道主的访谈记录。我们发现,使用llm来注释和编码文本可能会引入偏见,从而导致误导性推论。通过偏见,我们的意思是法学硕士在编码访谈记录时所犯的错误在访谈对象的特征方面不是随机的。与LLM注释相比,在高质量的人类代码上训练更简单的监督模型会导致更少的测量误差和偏差。考虑到为了评估法学硕士是否引入偏见,高质量的代码是必要的,我们认为,在训练有素的社会学家编码的转录本子集上训练定制模型可能比使用法学硕士更好。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility 代际收入流动中个体特异性异质性的核算
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251339654
Yoosoon Chang, Steven N. Durlauf, Bo Hu, Joon Y. Park
This article proposes a fully nonparametric model to investigate the dynamics of intergenerational income mobility for discrete outcomes. In our model, an individual’s income class probabilities depend on parental income in a manner that accommodates nonlinearities and interactions among various individual and parental characteristics, including race, education, and parental age at childbearing, and so generalizes Markov chain mobility models. We show how the model may be estimated using kernel techniques from machine learning. Utilizing data from the panel study of income dynamics, we show how race, parental education, and mother’s age at birth interact with family income to determine mobility between generations.
本文提出了一个完全非参数模型来研究离散结果的代际收入流动动态。在我们的模型中,个人的收入类别概率取决于父母的收入,以适应各种个人和父母特征(包括种族、教育程度和父母生育年龄)之间的非线性和相互作用的方式,从而推广了马尔可夫链流动性模型。我们展示了如何使用机器学习中的核技术来估计模型。利用收入动态面板研究的数据,我们展示了种族、父母教育程度和母亲出生年龄如何与家庭收入相互作用,以决定代际流动。
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引用次数: 0
The Unrealized Potential of Audits: Applicant-Side Inequalities in Effort, Opportunities, and Certainty 未实现的审计潜力:申请人在努力、机会和确定性方面的不平等
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251338240
Mike Vuolo, Sadé L. Lindsay, Vincent J. Roscigno, Shawn D. Bushway
Randomized audits and correspondence studies are widely regarded as a “gold standard” for capturing discrimination and bias. However, gatekeepers (e.g., employers) are the analytic unit even though stated implications often center on group-level inequalities. Employing simple rules, we show that audits have the potential to uncover applicant-side inequalities and burdens beyond the gatekeeper biases standardly reported. Specifically, applicants from groups facing lower callback rates must submit more applications to ensure an eventual callback, have fewer opportunities to choose from, and face higher uncertainty regarding how many applications to submit. These results reflect several sequential and cumulative stratification processes “real-world” applicants face that warrant attention in conventional audit reporting. Our approach can be straightforwardly applied and, we show, is particularly pertinent for employment relative to other institutional domains (e.g., education, religion). We discuss the methodological and theoretical relevance of our suggested extensions and the implications for the study of inequality, discrimination, and social closure.
随机审计和函电研究被广泛认为是捕捉歧视和偏见的“黄金标准”。然而,守门人(如雇主)是分析单位,尽管所陈述的含义往往集中在群体层面的不平等上。采用简单的规则,我们表明审计有可能发现申请人方面的不平等和负担,而不是标准报道的看门人偏见。具体来说,来自回调率较低的群体的申请人必须提交更多的申请,以确保最终的回调,他们的选择机会更少,并且在提交多少申请方面面临更大的不确定性。这些结果反映了“现实世界”申请人面临的几个顺序和累积分层过程,这些过程在传统审计报告中值得注意。我们的方法可以直接应用,并且我们表明,与其他机构领域(例如,教育,宗教)相比,我们的方法特别适用于就业。我们讨论了我们建议的扩展的方法和理论相关性,以及对不平等、歧视和社会封闭研究的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Updating “The Future of Coding”: Qualitative Coding with Generative Large Language Models 更新“编码的未来”:用生成式大型语言模型进行定性编码
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251339188
Nga Than, Leanne Fan, Tina Law, Laura K. Nelson, Leslie McCall
Over the past decade, social scientists have adapted computational methods for qualitative text analysis, with the hope that they can match the accuracy and reliability of hand coding. The emergence of GPT and open-source generative large language models (LLMs) has transformed this process by shifting from programming to engaging with models using natural language, potentially mimicking the in-depth, inductive, and/or iterative process of qualitative analysis. We test the ability of generative LLMs to replicate and augment traditional qualitative coding, experimenting with multiple prompt structures across four closed- and open-source generative LLMs and proposing a workflow for conducting qualitative coding with generative LLMs. We find that LLMs can perform nearly as well as prior supervised machine learning models in accurately matching hand-coding output. Moreover, using generative LLMs as a natural language interlocutor closely replicates traditional qualitative methods, indicating their potential to transform the qualitative research process, despite ongoing challenges.
在过去的十年里,社会科学家已经将计算方法应用于定性文本分析,希望它们能够与手工编码的准确性和可靠性相匹配。GPT和开源生成式大型语言模型(llm)的出现改变了这一过程,从编程转向使用自然语言的模型,潜在地模仿了定性分析的深入、归纳和/或迭代过程。我们测试了生成法学硕士复制和增强传统定性编码的能力,在四个封闭和开源的生成法学硕士中试验了多个提示结构,并提出了使用生成法学硕士进行定性编码的工作流程。我们发现llm在精确匹配手工编码输出方面的表现几乎与先验监督机器学习模型一样好。此外,使用生成法学硕士作为自然语言对话者密切复制了传统的定性方法,表明它们有潜力改变定性研究过程,尽管存在挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing Large Language Model Alignment and Algorithmic Fidelity in Social Science Research 社会科学研究中大语言模型一致性与算法保真度的平衡
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251342008
Alex Lyman, Bryce Hepner, Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, David Wingate
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize social science research. However, researchers face the difficult challenge of choosing a specific AI model, often without social science-specific guidance. To demonstrate the importance of this choice, we present an evaluation of the effect of alignment, or human-driven modification, on the ability of large language models (LLMs) to simulate the attitudes of human populations (sometimes called silicon sampling ). We benchmark aligned and unaligned versions of six open-source LLMs against each other and compare them to similar responses by humans. Our results suggest that model alignment impacts output in predictable ways, with implications for prompting, task completion, and the substantive content of LLM-based results. We conclude that researchers must be aware of the complex ways in which model training affects their research and carefully consider model choice for each project. We discuss future steps to improve how social scientists work with generative AI tools.
生成式人工智能(AI)有可能彻底改变社会科学研究。然而,研究人员面临着选择特定人工智能模型的艰巨挑战,通常没有社会科学的具体指导。为了证明这种选择的重要性,我们评估了对齐或人类驱动的修改对大型语言模型(llm)模拟人类群体态度的能力的影响(有时称为硅采样)。我们对六个开源llm的对齐和未对齐版本进行基准测试,并将它们与人类的类似响应进行比较。我们的结果表明,模型对齐以可预测的方式影响输出,对提示、任务完成和基于llm的结果的实质性内容都有影响。我们的结论是,研究人员必须意识到模型训练影响他们研究的复杂方式,并仔细考虑每个项目的模型选择。我们讨论了改善社会科学家如何使用生成式人工智能工具的未来步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Generative AI Meets Open-Ended Survey Responses: Research Participant Use of AI and Homogenization 生成人工智能满足开放式调查回应:研究参与者使用人工智能和同质化
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251327130
Simone Zhang, Janet Xu, AJ Alvero
The growing popularity of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools presents new challenges for data quality in online surveys and experiments. This study examines participants’ use of large language models to answer open-ended survey questions and describes empirical tendencies in human versus large language model (LLM)-generated text responses. In an original survey of research participants recruited from a popular online platform for sourcing social science research subjects, 34 percent reported using LLMs to help them answer open-ended survey questions. Simulations comparing human-written responses from three pre-ChatGPT studies with LLM-generated text reveal that LLM responses are more homogeneous and positive, particularly when they describe social groups in sensitive questions. These homogenization patterns may mask important underlying social variation in attitudes and beliefs among human subjects, raising concerns about data validity. Our findings shed light on the scope and potential consequences of participants’ LLM use in online research.
生成式人工智能(AI)工具的日益普及对在线调查和实验的数据质量提出了新的挑战。本研究考察了参与者使用大型语言模型来回答开放式调查问题,并描述了人类与大型语言模型(LLM)生成的文本响应的经验趋势。在一项原始调查中,从一个流行的社会科学研究对象在线平台招募的研究参与者中,34%的人表示使用法学硕士来帮助他们回答开放式调查问题。将三个chatgpt前的人类书面回答与法学硕士生成的文本进行模拟比较,发现法学硕士的回答更加均匀和积极,特别是当他们在敏感问题中描述社会群体时。这些同质化模式可能掩盖了人类受试者之间态度和信仰的重要潜在社会差异,引起了对数据有效性的担忧。我们的研究结果揭示了参与者在在线研究中使用法学硕士的范围和潜在后果。
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引用次数: 0
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