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The Rise in Occupational Coding Mismatches and Occupational Mobility, 1991–2020 1991-2020 年职业编码错配和职业流动性的上升
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241303517
Andrew Taeho Kim, ChangHwan Kim
Occupation is a construct prone to classification mismatches by coders and description inconsistency by respondents. We explore whether mismatches in occupational coding have recently increased, what factors are associated with the rise in mismatches, and how the rise affects estimates of intragenerational occupational mobility. Utilizing the 1991–2020 Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey, which collects information on respondents’ current occupation and the previous year’s main occupation, we identify coding mismatches and compare the probabilities of occupational mobility based on four combinations of two variables. Our results show that not only do the estimates of occupational mobility between two adjacent years vary substantially across measures, but also that the magnitudes of intragenerational occupational mobility across measures become increasingly decoupled over time. We demonstrate that the likely cause of this divergence is the rise in coding mismatches between coders. We discuss the implications of our findings.
职业是一个容易被编码者分类不匹配和被调查者描述不一致的结构。我们探讨了职业编码中的错配是否最近有所增加,哪些因素与错配的增加有关,以及这种增加如何影响代际职业流动性的估计。利用1991-2020年《当前人口调查年度社会经济补充》收集了受访者当前职业和前一年主要职业的信息,我们识别了编码不匹配,并基于两个变量的四种组合比较了职业流动的概率。我们的研究结果表明,不仅相邻两年之间的职业流动性估计值在不同测量方法之间存在很大差异,而且随着时间的推移,不同测量方法之间的代际职业流动性的大小也越来越不耦合。我们证明,这种差异的可能原因是编码人员之间编码不匹配的增加。我们讨论了我们的发现的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Using Google Maps to Generate Organizational Sampling Frames 使用谷歌地图生成组织采样帧
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241305095
Brad R Fulton, David P King
Organizational researchers use a variety of methods to obtain sampling frames. The utility of these methods, however, is constrained by access restrictions, limited coverage, prohibitive costs, and cumbersome formats. This article presents a new method for generating organizational sampling frames that is cost-effective, uses publicly available data, and can produce sampling frames for many geographic areas in the U.S. The Python-based program we developed systematically scans the Google Maps platform to identify organizations of interest and retrieve their contact information. We demonstrate the program's viability and utility by generating a sampling frame of religious congregations in the U.S. To assess Google Maps’ coverage and representativeness of such congregations, we examined two nationally representative samples of congregations and censuses of congregations in a small, medium, and large city. We found that Google Maps contains approximately 98% of those congregations––extensive coverage that ensures a high degree of representativeness. This study provides evidence that using Google Maps to generate sampling frames can improve the process for obtaining representative samples for organizational studies by reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and providing greater coverage and representativeness.
组织研究人员使用各种方法来获得采样帧。然而,这些方法的效用受到访问限制、有限的覆盖范围、高昂的成本和繁琐的格式的限制。本文提出了一种新的方法来生成组织抽样框架,这种方法具有成本效益,使用公开可用的数据,并且可以为美国的许多地理区域生成抽样框架。我们开发的基于python的程序系统地扫描谷歌Maps平台,以识别感兴趣的组织并检索其联系信息。我们通过生成美国宗教集会的抽样框架来证明该计划的可行性和实用性。为了评估谷歌Maps的覆盖范围和此类集会的代表性,我们检查了两个具有全国代表性的集会样本,并对小、中、大城市的集会进行了普查。我们发现谷歌Maps包含了大约98%的这些会众——广泛的覆盖范围确保了高度的代表性。本研究提供的证据表明,使用谷歌Maps生成采样帧可以通过降低成本、提高效率、提供更大的覆盖率和代表性来改善获得组织研究代表性样本的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Examining Variation in Survey Costs Across Surveys 检查不同调查中调查成本的差异
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241298914
Kristen Olson, John Stevenson, Nadia Assad, Lindsey Witt-Swanson, Cameron P.E. Jones, Amanda Ganshert, Jennifer Dykema
Self-administered surveys may be administered with a single mode or mixed data collection modes. How mixing modes of data collection affects survey costs is not well understood. We examine whether cost structures differ for mail-only versus web+mail mixed-mode surveys, what design features are associated with costs, and whether survey costs are associated with response rates. Using administrative survey cost data from two academic survey centers, we find that survey costs per sampled unit and per complete vary substantially across individual surveys. The average cost per sampled unit is surprisingly similar across mail-only and web+mail surveys. How the budget is allocated across printing, postage, incentive, and staff time varies across these designs: printing and postage costs are higher in mail-only surveys, and more of the budget is allocated to incentive costs and project management costs in web+mail surveys. Furthermore, higher cost surveys are associated with higher response rates, particularly for incentive costs.
自我管理的调查可以采用单一模式或混合数据收集模式。数据收集的混合模式如何影响调查成本尚不清楚。我们研究了纯邮件与网络+邮件混合模式调查的成本结构是否不同,与成本相关的设计特征,以及调查成本是否与回复率相关。利用两个学术调查中心的行政调查成本数据,我们发现每个抽样单位和每个完整的调查成本在不同的调查中差异很大。每个抽样单位的平均成本在纯邮件调查和web+邮件调查中惊人地相似。预算在印刷、邮资、激励和员工时间上的分配方式因设计而不同:在纯邮件调查中,印刷和邮资成本更高,而在网络+邮件调查中,更多的预算分配给了激励成本和项目管理成本。此外,调查成本越高,回复率也越高,特别是在激励成本方面。
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引用次数: 0
Sharing Big Video Data: Ethics, Methods, and Technology 共享大视频数据:伦理、方法和技术
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241277524
Joanne W. Golann, Lori Bougher, Richard Hall, Thomas J. Espenshade
Data sharing and transparency are becoming more common across the social sciences. In this article, we provide an overview of ethical, methodological, and technological considerations and challenges when developing large video-based datasets intended to be shared across researchers. We cover data security, storage, and access as well as data documentation, tagging, and transcription. Our discussions are framed by our own efforts to create a secure and user-friendly database for the New Jersey Families Study, a two-week, in-home video study of 21 families with a 2- to 4-year-old child. In collecting over 11,470 hours of video data, the New Jersey Families Study is one of the very few large-scale video projects in the field of sociology. This project has provided us with a unique opportunity to explore video data management and data sharing techniques, particularly in light of a host of cutting-edge developments in data science.
数据共享和透明度在社会科学领域越来越普遍。在本文中,我们将概述在开发大型视频数据集以供研究人员共享时,在伦理、方法和技术方面需要考虑的问题和面临的挑战。我们将讨论数据安全、存储和访问以及数据记录、标记和转录等问题。我们的讨论以我们自己为新泽西家庭研究(New Jersey Families Study)创建一个安全且用户友好的数据库所做的努力为框架,该研究是对 21 个有一个 2-4 岁孩子的家庭进行的为期两周的家庭视频研究。新泽西家庭研究收集了超过 11,470 小时的视频数据,是社会学领域为数不多的大型视频项目之一。该项目为我们提供了一个探索视频数据管理和数据共享技术的难得机会,尤其是在数据科学取得一系列前沿发展的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM) 健康预期的动态:多重多态法(MMM)简介
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268775
Tianyu Shen, Collin F. Payne, Maria Jahromi
Many studies have compared individual measures of health expectancy across older populations by time-invariant characteristics. However, very few have included time-varying variables when calculating health expectancy. Even among older adults, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics are likely to change over the life course, and these changes may have substantial implications for health outcomes. This paper proposes a multiple multistate method (MMM) that situates the multistate model within the broader family of vector autoregressive models. Our approach allows the incorporation of the coevolution of multiple life course factors and provides a flexible yet simple way to model two or more time-varying variables with the multistate model. We demonstrate the MMM in two empirical applications, showing the flexibility of the approach to explore health expectancies with complex state spaces.
许多研究通过时间不变的特征来比较不同老年人群的预期健康状况。然而,很少有研究在计算健康预期寿命时将时变变量包括在内。即使在老年人中,社会经济和人口特征也可能在生命过程中发生变化,而这些变化可能会对健康结果产生重大影响。本文提出了一种多重多态方法(MMM),将多态模型置于更广泛的向量自回归模型系列中。我们的方法允许纳入多个生命过程因素的共同演化,并提供了一种灵活而简单的方法,利用多态模型对两个或更多时变变量进行建模。我们在两个实证应用中演示了多态自回归模型,展示了该方法在探索具有复杂状态空间的健康预期方面的灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
Seeded Topic Models in Digital Archives: Analyzing Interpretations of Immigration in Swedish Newspapers, 1945–2019 数字档案中的种子主题模型:分析 1945-2019 年瑞典报纸中对移民的解读
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268453
Miriam Hurtado Bodell, Måns Magnusson, Marc Keuschnigg
Sociologists are discussing the need for more formal ways to extract meaning from digital text archives. We focus attention on the seeded topic model, a semi-supervised extension to the standard topic model that allows sociological knowledge to be infused into the computational learning of meaning structures. Seed words help crystallize topics around known concepts, while utilizing topic models’ functionality to identify associations in text based on word co-occurrences. The method estimates a concept’s shared interpretation (or framing) via its associations with other frequently co-occurring topics. In a case study, we extract longitudinal measures of media frames regarding immigration from a vast corpus of millions of Swedish newspaper articles from the period 1945–2019. We infer turning points that partition the immigration discourse into meaningful eras and locate Sweden’s era of multicultural ideals that coined its tolerant reputation.
社会学家们正在讨论是否需要更正规的方法来从数字文本档案中提取意义。我们重点关注种子主题模型,它是标准主题模型的半监督扩展,可将社会学知识注入意义结构的计算学习中。种子词有助于围绕已知概念形成话题,同时利用话题模型的功能,根据词的共现情况识别文本中的关联。该方法通过概念与其他频繁出现的主题之间的关联来估算概念的共同解释(或框架)。在一项案例研究中,我们从 1945-2019 年间瑞典数百万篇报纸文章的庞大语料库中提取了有关移民的媒体框架的纵向度量。我们推断出将移民话语划分为有意义时代的转折点,并定位了瑞典的多元文化理想时代,该时代造就了瑞典宽容的声誉。
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引用次数: 0
A Primer on Deep Learning for Causal Inference 因果推理深度学习入门
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241234866
Bernard J. Koch, Tim Sainburg, Pablo Geraldo Bastías, Song Jiang, Yizhou Sun, Jacob G. Foster
This primer systematizes the emerging literature on causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction to building and optimizing custom deep learning models and shows how to adapt them to estimate/predict heterogeneous treatment effects. It also discusses ongoing work to extend causal inference to settings where confounding is nonlinear, time-varying, or encoded in text, networks, and images. To maximize accessibility, we also introduce prerequisite concepts from causal inference and deep learning. The primer differs from other treatments of deep learning and causal inference in its sharp focus on observational causal estimation, its extended exposition of key algorithms, and its detailed tutorials for implementing, training, and selecting among deep estimators in TensorFlow 2 and PyTorch.
本入门书系统整理了在潜在结果框架下使用深度神经网络进行因果推断的新兴文献。它直观地介绍了如何构建和优化自定义深度学习模型,并展示了如何调整这些模型以估计/预测异质性治疗效果。它还讨论了将因果推理扩展到非线性、时变或以文本、网络和图像编码的混杂情况的当前工作。为了最大限度地便于读者理解,我们还介绍了因果推理和深度学习的先决概念。这本入门书与其他深度学习和因果推理的论著不同之处在于,它专注于观察性因果估计,扩展阐述了关键算法,并提供了在 TensorFlow 2 和 PyTorch 中实施、训练和选择深度估计器的详细教程。
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引用次数: 0
Untapped Potential: Designed Digital Trace Data in Online Survey Experiments 未开发的潜力:在线调查实验中设计的数字痕迹数据
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268770
Erin Macke, Claire Daviss, Emma Williams-Baron
Researchers have developed many uses for digital trace data, yet most online survey experiments continue to rely on attitudinal rather than behavioral measures. We argue that researchers can collect digital trace data during online survey experiments with relative ease, at modest costs, and to substantial benefit. Because digital trace data unobtrusively measure survey participants’ behaviors, they can be used to analyze digital outcomes of theoretical and empirical interest, while reducing the risk of social desirability bias. We demonstrate the feasibility and utility of collecting digital trace data during online survey experiments through two original studies. In both, participants evaluated interactive digital resumes designed to track participants’ clicks, mouse movements, and time spent on the resumes. This novel approach allowed us to better understand participants’ search for information and cognitive processing in hiring decisions. There is immense, untapped potential value in collecting digital trace data during online survey experiments and using it to address important sociological research questions.
研究人员已经开发了许多数字跟踪数据的用途,但大多数在线调查实验仍然依赖于态度测量而非行为测量。我们认为,在在线调查实验中,研究人员可以相对轻松地收集数字跟踪数据,成本不高,却能获得巨大收益。由于数字跟踪数据可以不引人注意地测量调查参与者的行为,因此可以用来分析理论和实证研究中感兴趣的数字结果,同时降低社会可取性偏差的风险。我们通过两项原创研究证明了在在线调查实验中收集数字跟踪数据的可行性和实用性。在这两项研究中,参与者对互动式数字简历进行了评估,旨在跟踪参与者的点击、鼠标移动以及在简历上花费的时间。这种新颖的方法使我们能够更好地了解参与者在招聘决策中的信息搜索和认知处理过程。在在线调查实验中收集数字跟踪数据,并将其用于解决重要的社会学研究问题,具有巨大的、尚未开发的潜在价值。
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引用次数: 0
Handle with Care: A Sociologist’s Guide to Causal Inference with Instrumental Variables 小心处理:社会学家工具变量因果推理指南
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241235900
Chris Felton, Brandon M. Stewart
Instrumental variables (IV) analysis is a powerful, but fragile, tool for drawing causal inferences from observational data. Sociologists increasingly turn to this strategy in settings where unmeasured confounding between the treatment and outcome is likely. This paper reviews the assumptions required for IV and the consequences of violating them, focusing on sociological applications. We highlight three methodological problems IV faces: (i) identification bias, an asymptotic bias from assumption violations; (ii) estimation bias, a finite-sample bias that persists even when assumptions hold; and (iii) type-M error, the exaggeration of effect size given statistical significance. In each case, we emphasize how weak instruments exacerbate these problems and make results sensitive to minor violations of assumptions. We survey IV papers from top sociology journals, finding that assumptions often go unstated and robust uncertainty measures are rarely used. We provide a practical checklist to show how IV, despite its fragility, can still be useful when handled with care.
工具变量(IV)分析是从观察数据中得出因果推论的一种强大但脆弱的工具。在治疗与结果之间可能存在未测量混杂因素的情况下,社会学家越来越多地采用这种策略。本文以社会学应用为重点,回顾了 IV 所需的假设以及违反这些假设的后果。我们强调了 IV 所面临的三个方法问题:(i) 识别偏差,即违反假设产生的渐近偏差;(ii) 估计偏差,即即使假设成立也会持续存在的有限样本偏差;(iii) M 型误差,即在统计显著性条件下夸大效应大小。在每种情况下,我们都会强调弱工具会如何加剧这些问题,并使结果对微小的违反假设的情况变得敏感。我们调查了顶级社会学期刊中的 IV 篇论文,发现这些论文往往没有说明假设,也很少使用稳健的不确定性测量方法。我们提供了一份实用的核对表,说明尽管 IV 很脆弱,但只要小心处理,它仍然是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Age, Period, and Cohort Analysis With Bounding and Interactions 具有边界和交互作用的年龄、时期和队列分析
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1177/00491241241266279
Jiwon Lee
This article uses the example of voter turnout in US presidential elections to compare two new methods for age, period, and cohort (APC) analysis: the APC interaction model and the APC bounding analysis. While discussing the formal, conceptual, and interpretive differences between the two methods, the analysis demonstrates how both methods can be used to generate distinct but complementary findings. Because the two methods take alternative positions on the appropriate cohort-effect estimands, the comparison underscores the importance of well-grounded conceptual foundations in APC analysis.
本文以美国总统选举中的投票率为例,比较了年龄、时期和队列(APC)分析的两种新方法:APC 交互模型和 APC 边界分析。在讨论这两种方法在形式、概念和解释上的差异的同时,分析还展示了如何利用这两种方法得出不同但互补的结论。由于这两种方法对适当的队列效应估计值采取了不同的立场,因此这种比较强调了在 APC 分析中扎实的概念基础的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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Sociological Methods & Research
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