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Migration Status Gradients in Immigrant Poverty: A Comparison of Imputation Methods 移民贫困的移民身份梯度:一种估算方法的比较
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251379461
Cody Spence, James D. Bachmeier, Claire E. Altman, Jennifer Van Hook, Kendal Lowrey
Research on the stratifying effects of migration status has increased sharply in the last two decades, although efforts have been hampered by the near absence of representative data that include detailed migration status measures. Researchers have developed various statistical and logical imputation methods that have produced widely varying estimates. In this article, we introduce a new indicator of migration status constructed from two federal surveys matched to the Social Security Administration's Numident file, a database that includes all citizens and legal residents of the United States. In models predicting poverty, our measure produces estimates comparable to those based on respondents’ own self-reports, in one federal survey, of their migration status. Both the administrative and survey-based measures produce poverty gradients that diverge from those produced by logic-based measures. Our findings contribute to mounting evidence of bias in the use of certain kinds of logic-based algorithms to impute migration status and demonstrate the promise of administrative record linkages in migration status research.
在过去二十年中,关于移徙地位的分层影响的研究急剧增加,尽管由于几乎缺乏包括详细移徙地位措施的代表性数据,研究工作受到阻碍。研究人员开发了各种统计和逻辑推算方法,产生了差异很大的估计。在本文中,我们介绍了一个新的移民状态指标,该指标是根据与社会保障管理局的Numident文件相匹配的两项联邦调查构建的,Numident文件是一个包含美国所有公民和合法居民的数据库。在预测贫困的模型中,我们的方法得出的估计值与一项联邦调查中基于受访者自我报告的移民状况的估计值相当。行政措施和基于调查的措施产生的贫困梯度与基于逻辑的措施产生的梯度不同。我们的研究结果有助于提供越来越多的证据,证明在使用某些基于逻辑的算法来推断迁移状态时存在偏见,并展示了迁移状态研究中行政记录联系的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Inference for Latent Markov Models Using the Parametric G-Formula 基于参数g公式的潜马尔可夫模型的因果推理
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251377068
Felix J. Clouth, Maarten J. Bijlsma, Steffen Pauws, Jeroen K. Vermunt
The parametric g-formula can be used to estimate causal effects of time-varying exposures on observable outcomes. It resolves intermediate confounding in such settings by specifying several parametric models, one each for every time-varying variable, and by performing micro-simulations. However, its restriction to applications with observable outcomes limits its usability for social sciences where variables of interest are often unobservable constructs. In such cases, measurement models are needed. We propose a new approach utilizing bias-adjusted three-step latent Markov models (LMMs) within the parametric g-formula. LMMs estimate the probability of membership in an unobservable state conditional on observed indicator variables. By replacing the parametric models in the g-formula with LMMs, micro-simulations are performed as usual to estimate a causal effect of the time-varying exposure. We illustrate this new approach by estimating the average treatment effect of unemployment on several unobservable mental health states utilizing longitudinal data from the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences panel.
参数g公式可用于估计时变暴露对可观察结果的因果影响。它通过指定几个参数模型来解决这种设置中的中间混淆,每个参数模型对应一个时变变量,并通过执行微观模拟。然而,它对具有可观察结果的应用程序的限制限制了它在社会科学中的可用性,其中感兴趣的变量通常是不可观察的结构。在这种情况下,需要度量模型。我们提出了一种利用参数g公式内偏差调整的三步潜马尔可夫模型(lmm)的新方法。lmm估计隶属于不可观测状态的概率,条件是观察到的指标变量。通过用lmm代替g公式中的参数模型,像往常一样进行微观模拟以估计时变暴露的因果效应。我们通过利用社会科学小组纵向互联网研究的纵向数据估计失业对几种不可观察的心理健康状态的平均治疗效果来说明这种新方法。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Optimal Treatment Regimes and Causal Decomposition With Individualized Interventions 基于模拟的最优治疗方案敏感性分析及个体化干预的因果分解
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251377741
Soojin Park, Suyeon Kang, Chioun Lee
Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing optimal treatment regimes (OTRs). Since the newly defined individualized effects rely on the no omitted confounding assumption, developing sensitivity analyses to account for potential omitted confounding is essential. Moreover, OTRs and individualized effects are primarily based on binary risk factors, and no formal approach currently exists to benchmark the strength of omitted confounding using observed covariates for binary risk factors. To address this gap, we extend a simulation-based sensitivity analysis that simulates unmeasured confounders, addressing two sources of bias emerging from deriving OTRs and estimating individualized effects. Additionally, we propose a formal bounding strategy that benchmarks the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors. Using the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09), we demonstrate this sensitivity analysis and benchmarking method.
因果分解分析旨在评估调整风险因素对减少社会结果差异的影响。最近,该分析在利用最佳治疗方案(OTRs)修改危险因素时纳入了个体特征。由于新定义的个体化效应依赖于不遗漏的混杂假设,因此开发敏感性分析来解释潜在的遗漏混杂是必不可少的。此外,OTRs和个体化效应主要基于二元风险因素,目前还没有正式的方法来使用观察到的二元风险因素协变量来衡量省略混杂的强度。为了解决这一差距,我们扩展了一种基于模拟的敏感性分析,该分析模拟了未测量的混杂因素,解决了从导出OTRs和估计个性化效应中出现的两个偏差来源。此外,我们提出了一种正式的边界策略,该策略对二元风险因素省略混淆的强度进行基准测试。利用2009年高中纵向研究(HSLS:09),我们验证了这种敏感性分析和基准测试方法。
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引用次数: 0
What Types of Survey Questions are Prone to Interviewer Effects? Evidence Based on 29,000 Intra-Interviewer Correlations From 28 Countries of the European Social Survey 什么类型的调查问题容易产生面试官效应?基于来自28个欧洲社会调查国家的29,000个访谈者内部相关性的证据
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251372509
Adam Stefkovics, Kinga Batiz, Blanka Zsófia Grubits, Anna Sára Ligeti
Interviewer effects are a common challenge in face-to-face surveys. Understanding the conditions that make interviewer variance more likely to occur is essential in tackling sources of bias. Earlier evidence suggests that certain features of the survey instrument provide more ground for interviewer influence. For instance, attitudinal, sensitive, complex or open-ended questions invite more interviewer variance. In this article, we aim to validate earlier results, previously derived from single-country studies, by using the large cross-national sample of the European Social Survey (ESS). We compare 29,330 intra-interviewer correlations derived from 984 survey questions from 28 countries using data from 10 waves of the ESS. The questions were manually coded based on several characteristics. These features of survey questions were then used as predictors of intraclass correlations (ICCs) in multilevel models. The results show that question characteristics account for a significant portion of the variation in ICCs, with certain types, such as attitude and non-factual questions, items appearing later in the survey, and those using showcards, being especially susceptible to interviewer effects. Our findings have important implications for both interviewer training and questionnaire design.
访谈者效应是面对面调查中常见的挑战。了解使面试官更有可能出现差异的条件是解决偏见来源的必要条件。早期的证据表明,调查工具的某些特征为采访者的影响提供了更多的依据。例如,态度型、敏感型、复杂型或开放式的问题会让面试官产生更多的差异。在本文中,我们旨在通过使用欧洲社会调查(ESS)的大型跨国样本来验证先前从单个国家研究中得出的早期结果。我们比较了来自28个国家的984个调查问题的29330个访谈者内部相关性,使用了来自10波ESS的数据。这些问题是根据几个特征手工编码的。然后,这些调查问题的特征被用作多层模型中类内相关性(ICCs)的预测因子。结果表明,问题特征占ICCs变化的很大一部分,某些类型的问题,如态度和非事实问题,在调查中出现较晚的项目,以及使用showcards的项目,特别容易受到采访者效应的影响。我们的研究结果对面试官培训和问卷设计都有重要的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Is it Time to Put a Moratorium on List Experiments for Domestic Violence Elicitation? 是时候暂停家庭暴力诱导的名单实验了吗?
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251372542
Andreas Kotsadam, Mette Løvgren
Using data from over 24,000 respondents in the Norwegian Crime Victimization Survey, we conducted a double list experiment to measure domestic violence (DV). Both list experiments revealed a statistically significant decrease in reporting when including a sensitive DV item. This clear violation of the “no design effects” assumption is not only explained by floor effects. One possibility is that the results indicate a “fleeing” behavior whereby respondents try to avoid association with DV. Combined with the inherent power limitations of list experiments in many contexts, these results underscore the need for caution in employing list experiments to measure DV, even in large samples.
利用挪威犯罪受害调查中24,000多名受访者的数据,我们进行了双表实验来衡量家庭暴力(DV)。两个列表实验都显示,当包含敏感的DV项目时,报告的数量显著减少。这种对“无设计效应”假设的明显违反不仅可以用地板效应来解释。一种可能性是,结果表明了一种“逃避”行为,即受访者试图避免与家庭暴力联系在一起。结合列表实验在许多情况下固有的功率限制,这些结果强调了在使用列表实验来测量DV时需要谨慎,即使是在大样本中。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring Attitudes Over Time: Real Change or the Result of Repeated Interviewing? 随着时间的推移监测态度:真正的变化还是重复访谈的结果?
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251372503
Fabienne Kraemer, Peter Lugtig, Bella Struminskaya, Henning Silber, Bernd Weiß, Michael Bosnjak
Panel data are often used to study change and stability in social patterns. However, repeated interviewing may affect respondents’ attitudes in a panel study by triggering reflection processes on the surveyed topics (cognitive stimulus hypothesis) . Using data from a survey experiment within a probability-based and a nonprobability panel in Germany, we investigate change—and the mechanisms underlying change—in respondents’ abortion attitudes over six panel waves. The experiment manipulated the frequency of receiving identical attitude questions. We estimate multiple-group and longitudinal structural equation models to differentiate change in the measurement of abortion attitudes from “real” attitude change. Results show that repeatedly administering the same abortion questions increases the reliability of respondents’ reported attitudes and the stability of their latent attitudes toward abortion. However, we find no evidence of an increase in attitude certainty and knowledgeability on abortion and only tentative evidence of improved response behavior (increased attitude reliability) due to general survey experience.
面板数据通常用于研究社会模式的变化和稳定。然而,在小组研究中,重复访谈可能会通过触发对被调查主题的反思过程(认知刺激假说)来影响受访者的态度。利用来自德国概率和非概率小组的调查实验数据,我们调查了六次小组调查中受访者堕胎态度的变化及其潜在机制。实验控制了接受相同态度问题的频率。我们估计了多组和纵向结构方程模型,以区分堕胎态度的测量变化与“真实”态度的变化。结果表明,重复回答相同的堕胎问题增加了受访者报告态度的可靠性和他们对堕胎潜在态度的稳定性。然而,我们没有发现任何证据表明态度确定性和对堕胎的了解有所增加,只有初步证据表明由于一般调查经验,反应行为有所改善(态度可靠性增加)。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Time-to-Event Data With Two Time Scales. An Application to Transitions out of Cohabitation 两个时间尺度下的时间到事件数据分析。从同居过渡的应用程序
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251374193
Angela Carollo, Hein Putter, Paul H.C. Eilers, Jutta Gampe
Models for time-to-event data are based on transition rates between states, and to define such hazards of experiencing an event, the time scale over which the process evolves needs to be identified. In many applications, however, more than one time scale might be of importance. Here, we demonstrate how to model a hazard jointly over two time dimensions. The model assumes a smooth bivariate hazard function, and the function is estimated by two-dimensional P -splines. We provide an R package for the analysis of event history data with two time scales. As an example, we model transitions from cohabitation to marriage or separation simultaneously over the age of the individual and the duration of the cohabitation. We use data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) and demonstrate that considering the two time scales as equally important provides additional insights about the transition from cohabitation to marriage or separation.
时间到事件数据的模型基于状态之间的转换速率,为了定义经历事件的此类危险,需要确定过程演变的时间尺度。然而,在许多应用中,一个以上的时间尺度可能很重要。在这里,我们将演示如何在两个时间维度上对危险进行联合建模。该模型假设一个光滑的二元危险函数,该函数由二维P样条估计。我们提供了一个R包来分析具有两个时间尺度的事件历史数据。作为一个例子,我们模拟了从同居到结婚或分居的过渡,同时随着个人的年龄和同居的持续时间。我们使用了来自德国家庭调查小组(pairfam)的数据,并证明考虑这两个时间尺度同样重要,可以为从同居到结婚或分居的过渡提供额外的见解。
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引用次数: 0
An Exploration of the Presence of Positive-Results Bias in Qualitative Comparative Analysis 定性比较分析中正结果偏倚存在的探讨
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251357948
Ingo Rohlfing
The value of negative results for knowledge advancement stands in contrast to the abundance of positive findings found in quantitative research across research fields. There is reason to believe that positive-results bias is also present in studies that use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This possibility has been neglected so far in work on QCA. This article contributes to the field of meta science and QCA by exploring whether hypothesis-testing QCA articles collectively indicate the presence of positive-results bias. An analysis of consistency scores and comparison of hypotheses and findings reported in QCA articles and PhD theses indicate the presence of biases. The results suggest two implications. First, the interpretation fo findings in a field should take into account that negative results may be underreported. Second, QCA research would benefit from exploring techniques that could be integrated into the research and peer-review process to address positive-results bias.
消极结果对知识进步的价值与在各个研究领域的定量研究中发现的大量积极结果形成鲜明对比。有理由相信,在使用定性比较分析(QCA)的研究中也存在阳性结果偏差。到目前为止,这种可能性在QCA的工作中被忽视了。本文通过探讨假设检验的QCA文章是否集体表明正结果偏差的存在,为元科学和QCA领域做出了贡献。对一致性分数的分析以及对QCA文章和博士论文中报告的假设和发现的比较表明存在偏差。研究结果暗示了两个含义。首先,对某一领域发现的解释应考虑到负面结果可能被低估。其次,QCA研究将受益于探索可以整合到研究和同行评审过程中的技术,以解决积极结果偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Inequality of Opportunity, Income Mobility, and the Interpretation of Intergenerational Elasticities, Correlations, and Rank-Rank Slopes 机会不平等、收入流动性和代际弹性、相关性和等级斜率的解释
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251352102
Pablo A. Mitnik
Although there is an extensive methodological literature on the measurement of intergenerational income mobility, there has been limited research on the conceptual interpretation of mobility measures and the methodological implications of those interpretations. In this article, I focus on the three measures of mobility most frequently used in the literature—the intergenerational elasticity (IGE), the intergenerational correlation (IGC), and the rank-rank slope (RRS)—as well as a recently introduced measure, the intergenerational elasticity of expected income (IGEE). I make two main contributions, both related to the conceptual interpretation of mobility measures. First, I specify the formal relationships between those four mobility measures and the measures of inequality of opportunity developed in the luck egalitarian empirical literature on the topic, and determine the methodological implications of the analyses. I show that (a) the IGC is a measure of relative inequality of opportunity for monetary income, (b) the RRS is both a measure of relative inequality of opportunity for income rank and a rescaled measure of absolute inequality of opportunity for income rank, and (c) the products of parental income inequality by the IGEE and IGE are both measures of absolute inequality of opportunity for monetary income that differ in how they measure the value of opportunity sets. Second, relying on a conceptual distinction that has been influential in the field of public finance, the IGE and IGEE have been characterized as “person-weighted” and “dollar-weighted” elasticities, respectively, thus raising doubts about the desirability of a recent proposal to replace the IGE by the IGEE as the workhorse elasticity of the mobility field. I show that this contrasting characterization of the two intergenerational elasticities is the joint result of a category mistake—equating quantile-specific elasticities to person-specific elasticities—and of misconstruing the nature of the IGE and the epistemic goal it has been meant to serve. Based on this analysis, I conclude that the case for replacing the IGE with the IGEE remains well-founded.
虽然有大量关于代际收入流动性测量的方法学文献,但对流动性测量的概念解释和这些解释的方法学含义的研究有限。在本文中,我将重点介绍文献中最常用的三种流动性测量方法——代际弹性(IGE)、代际相关性(IGC)和等级-等级斜率(RRS)——以及最近引入的一种测量方法,即预期收入的代际弹性(IGEE)。我做了两个主要贡献,都与流动性措施的概念解释有关。首先,我详细说明了这四种流动性指标与运气平等主义实证文献中关于该主题的机会不平等指标之间的正式关系,并确定了分析的方法含义。我表明:(a) IGC是衡量货币收入机会相对不平等的指标,(b) RRS既是衡量收入等级机会相对不平等的指标,也是衡量收入等级机会绝对不平等的指标,(c) IGEE和IGE的父母收入不平等的产物都是衡量货币收入机会绝对不平等的指标,不同之处在于它们如何衡量机会集的价值。其次,根据在公共财政领域具有影响力的概念区分,IGE和IGEE分别被定性为“个人加权”和“美元加权”弹性,因此,最近有人提议用IGEE取代IGE,使其成为流动性领域的主要弹性,这令人怀疑。我认为,这两种代际弹性的对比特征是一个类别错误的共同结果——将分位数特异性弹性等同于个人特异性弹性——以及误解IGE的本质及其所服务的认知目标。基于这一分析,我得出结论,用IGEE替代IGE的案例仍然是有充分根据的。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized Intergenerational Mobility Regressions 广义代际流动性回归
IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1177/00491241251357586
Esfandiar Maasoumi, Le Wang, Daiqiang Zhang
Current research on intergenerational mobility (IGM) is informed by statistical approaches based on log-level regressions, whose economic interpretations remain largely unknown. We reveal the subjective value-judgments in them: they are represented by weighted-sums (or aggregators) over heterogeneous groups, with controversial economic properties. Log-level regressions tend to overrepresent the experiences of middle-class children while underrepresenting those from disadvantaged families. We propose a general construction of IGM measures that can incorporate any transparent economic preferences. They are interpreted as the marginal effect of parental normalized social welfare on children’s normalized welfare. Conventional regressions are special cases with implicit economic preferences that fail inequality-aversion and the Pigou–Dalton principle of transfers. Empirically, a variety of economic preferences, with varying inequality aversion, demonstrate a nuanced view of mobility, and perspectives on geographic-differences and dynamics of it.
目前对代际流动性(IGM)的研究是基于对数水平回归的统计方法,其经济解释在很大程度上仍然未知。我们揭示了其中的主观价值判断:它们由异质群体的加权总和(或聚合器)表示,具有争议的经济属性。对数水平回归倾向于过度代表中产阶级儿童的经历,而低估了来自弱势家庭的儿童的经历。我们提出了IGM措施的一般结构,可以纳入任何透明的经济偏好。它们被解释为父母标准化社会福利对儿童标准化福利的边际效应。传统的回归是具有隐性经济偏好的特殊情况,它不能满足不平等厌恶和庇古-道尔顿转移原则。从经验上看,各种各样的经济偏好,以及不同的不平等厌恶,展示了对流动性的微妙看法,以及对地理差异和动态的看法。
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引用次数: 0
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Sociological Methods & Research
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