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An Analyses of Formula-Based Intergovernmental Transfer Using A Comprehensive Model 基于公式的政府间转移支付综合模型分析
Pub Date : 2020-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3698163
Elvina Merkaj, F. Fiorillo, E. Zhllima, D. Imami
In this paper we analyze the tactics used by the central government during the allocation of grants toward local governments, by implementing the guidelines of the comprehensive model of Fiorillo and Merkaj (FM’s model) (2020)*. We apply the model to investigate a formula-based unconditional grant in a post-socialist economy, namely Albania, by assuming the value of three key structural parameters of the model. Using panel data for the period 2004-2011, we find that in Albania although the central government appears to follow the principles of equity and efficiency, political and electoral objectives of the incumbents do influence the allocation of transfers. Results confirm the predictions of the FM model: in a country with weak local government, where central government is perceived as the true policy maker even of local policies, in the presence of a proportional electoral rule, the incumbent tends to shape tactical allocation in favour of supporters.



*Fiorillo Fabio and Merkaj Elvina "A Comprehensive Approach to Intergovernmental Grants’ Tactical Allocation. Theory And Estimation Guidelines", submitted to International Tax and Public Finance (2020)
在本文中,我们通过实施Fiorillo和Merkaj (FM模型)(2020)*的综合模型的指导方针,分析了中央政府在向地方政府分配赠款时使用的策略。我们通过假设模型的三个关键结构参数的值,应用该模型来调查后社会主义经济(即阿尔巴尼亚)中基于公式的无条件赠款。利用2004-2011年期间的面板数据,我们发现,在阿尔巴尼亚,尽管中央政府似乎遵循公平和效率的原则,但在职者的政治和选举目标确实影响了转移支付的分配。结果证实了FM模型的预测:在一个地方政府薄弱的国家,中央政府甚至被视为地方政策的真正决策者,在存在比例选举规则的情况下,现任者倾向于塑造有利于支持者的战术分配。*Fiorillo Fabio和Merkaj Elvina:《政府间拨款战术分配的综合方法》。《理论与估算指南》,提交给《国际税收与公共财政》(2020)
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引用次数: 1
Revisiting the Effect of Supermajority Requirements on Fiscal Outcomes 重新审视绝对多数要求对财政结果的影响
Pub Date : 2020-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3662597
William B. Hankins
I use event study and synthetic control methods on a panel of American states over the period 1960 -- 2008 to test whether adoption of a supermajority requirement impacts state-level expenditures and tax revenue. I find evidence that supermajority requirements lead to a sustained reduction in welfare expenditures per capita and limited evidence that these requirements lead to an increase in corporate tax revenue per capita. I find no evidence that supermajority requirements affect overall state expenditures or tax revenue. These results differ from previous studies, which could be explained by the use of alternative estimation methods and control variables, and differences in which states are considered supermajority requirement adopters and the years in which those requirements go into effect.
我使用事件研究和综合控制方法对1960年至2008年期间的美国各州进行了面板研究,以测试采用绝对多数要求是否会影响州一级的支出和税收收入。我发现有证据表明,绝对多数要求导致人均福利支出的持续减少,而有限的证据表明,这些要求导致人均企业税收收入的增加。我没有发现任何证据表明绝对多数要求会影响州的总体支出或税收收入。这些结果与以前的研究不同,这可以通过使用替代的估计方法和控制变量来解释,以及哪些州被认为是绝对多数需求采用者和这些需求生效的年份的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Determining Gender Budgeting in Multi-Level Federalism 多层次联邦制中性别预算的确定
Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3661969
L. Chakraborty, Veena Nayyar, Komal Jain
Gender budgeting is a public policy innovation intended to transform governments’ objectives to women’s empowerment into budgetary commitments. In the multi-level fiscal federalism in India, the political economy process of gender budgeting in India has involved four distinct phases - innovative knowledge networking, building institutional structures, reinforcing state capacity and strengthening the accountability mechanisms, at national and subnational levels. Against these policy processes, we have estimated the sector-wise quantum of gender budgeting in India emphasising the statistical invisibility of the care economy. The State-wise equally distributed equivalent (Xede) estimates of gender development showed that the state of Kerala tops the scale 0-1 scoring 0.72. Though the link between gender budgeting and these Xede scores is beyond the scope of the paper, the fiscal marksmanship (the deviation between what is budgeted and the actual spending) of gender budgeting showed a mixed scenario across sectors.
性别预算是一项公共政策创新,旨在将政府赋予妇女权力的目标转化为预算承诺。在印度多层次的财政联邦制中,印度性别预算的政治经济过程涉及四个不同的阶段-创新知识网络,建立制度结构,加强国家能力和加强问责机制,在国家和国家以下各级。针对这些政策过程,我们估计了印度性别预算的部门数量,强调了护理经济的统计不可见性。各邦对性别发展的平均分配当量(Xede)估计显示,喀拉拉邦在0-1的评分中得分最高,为0.72。尽管性别预算与这些分数之间的联系超出了本文的范围,但性别预算的财政准确性(预算与实际支出之间的偏差)在各个部门显示出不同的情况。
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引用次数: 1
West Bengal Deserves Higher Share of Tax Proceeds for Its Efficient Performance 西孟加拉邦的高效表现值得获得更高的税收份额
Pub Date : 2020-07-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3656695
D. Dey
The socio-economic contribution of the Indian state of West Bengal, which has been subjected to repeated partitions and transfer of population during last one hundred and fifty odd years to serve the interest of the colonial and national rulers, is immense. It cannot be judged just by its GSDP share. More inclusive parameters are needed to assess the contribution of densely populated smaller states like West Bengal. This paper attempts to address this issue by: (i) developing a Composite Productivity Index (SCPI) for different states/provinces for proper assessment of their economic performance, and (ii) suggesting a new formula to determine the states’ share of the ‘divisible tax pool’.
印度西孟加拉邦的社会经济贡献是巨大的。在过去150多年里,为了殖民地和国家统治者的利益,西孟加拉邦遭受了多次分割和人口转移。不能仅凭gdp份额来判断。需要更具包容性的参数来评估像西孟加拉邦这样人口密集的小邦的贡献。本文试图通过以下方法来解决这个问题:(i)为不同的州/省制定一个综合生产力指数(SCPI),以适当评估其经济表现;(ii)提出一个新的公式来确定各州在“可分割的税收池”中的份额。
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引用次数: 0
The Dog-Whistle Politics of Personal Responsibility, Credit, and the American Welfare State 个人责任、信用和美国福利国家的狗哨政治
Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3579128
Andreas Wiedemann, Tess Wise
Personal responsibility is a prominent theme in the politics of the American welfare state. We argue that in a context of easy access to credit, political rhetoric around personal responsibility is coded racial language that resonates with Americans who perceive themselves as no longer needing government support, shifting their support from public to private, credit-based funding of social goods. We support our argument empirically in two ways. First, state-level observational data shows that in states where voters hold stronger personal responsibility norms, easier borrowing conditions are associated with more conservative economic policies. In states with more liberal economic norms, changes in borrowing constraints do not influence policy liberalism. Second, we draw on an original survey to document that beliefs in personal responsibility are tied to racial resentment and interact with perceptions of easy credit access to strengthen support for private instead of public spending on education and unemployment insurance.
个人责任是美国福利国家政治的一个突出主题。我们认为,在容易获得信贷的背景下,围绕个人责任的政治言论是编码的种族语言,与那些认为自己不再需要政府支持的美国人产生共鸣,他们的支持从公共转向私人,以信贷为基础的社会产品资助。我们从两个方面实证地支持我们的论点。首先,州级观察数据显示,在选民个人责任规范更强的州,更宽松的借贷条件与更保守的经济政策有关。在经济规范更为自由的国家,借贷限制的变化不会影响政策自由主义。其次,我们利用一项原始调查来证明,个人责任的信念与种族怨恨有关,并与容易获得信贷的观念相互作用,从而加强对教育和失业保险方面的私人支出的支持,而不是公共支出。
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引用次数: 2
Do What We Did Last Year but Don’t Stray Too Far from the Pack, the Role of Behavioral Heuristics in Explaining Municipal Reserve Balances 做我们去年做的事,但不要偏离群体太远,行为启发式在解释市政储备余额中的作用
Pub Date : 2020-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3513268
Kawika Pierson, Jon C. Thompson, F. Thompson

In this paper we leverage a national panel of US municipalities to show that a pair of heuristics identified from the behavioral economics literature, anchoring and the bandwagon effect, help to explain the number of years of expenses municipalities hold in reserve. We build our empirical case using two innovative techniques, a two-stage regression specifically designed to test for anchoring, and a measure of the spatial autocorrelation of reserves. The results strongly suggest that, when it comes to deciding on how much to save, cities target the levels of savings they held in the past, adjusted for the savings levels of their neighbors.
在本文中,我们利用美国市政当局的全国小组来表明,从行为经济学文献中确定的一对启发式,锚定和从众效应,有助于解释市政当局持有储备费用的年数。我们使用两种创新技术构建了我们的经验案例,一种是专门设计用于测试锚定的两阶段回归,另一种是储量空间自相关性的测量。研究结果强烈表明,在决定存多少钱时,城市会以自己过去的储蓄水平为目标,并根据邻近城市的储蓄水平进行调整。
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引用次数: 0
Plastic Tax: An Alternative to Plastic Alternatives 塑料税:塑料替代品的替代品
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3642739
D. Raymer
Often considered the ultimate beach destination, the world-famous beaches that surround Florida have long defined the culture of the Sunshine State. Florida’s white, sandy beaches not only define its culture—it is the foundation of Florida’s economy. Unfortunately, this culture and economic foundation is being threatened, and the world-famous beaches that attract tourists by the droves are beginning to disappear. This threat of rising sea levels does not stop at the sandy beaches loved by tourists and locals alike; the regression of the shoreline that surrounds Florida will also lead to the loss of the opulent, tax-revenue generating real estate that lines the Sunshine State’s coastline. With this impending loss of a significant portion of the tourist economy and the loss of property taxes generated by the beach-front real estate on the horizon, the Florida government’s need to plan for contingencies cannot be overstated. While this threat of rising sea levels affects Florida on a localized scale, its cause is attributable worldwide and any action to stop rising sea levels would need to be made on a global scale. As a result, the idea of halting rising sea level on a localized scale is not realistic: the focal point at this juncture should be mitigation. Specifically, in Florida’s case, the goal should be to generate an adequate disaster fund to pay for beach nourishment projects, the potential loss of property-tax revenue, and the loss of tourist-generated revenue. The scope of this article will be divided into two sections: part one will cover a brief background of rising sea levels, the projections for future sea level rise, and Florida’s unique vulnerability to said sea level rise; part two will propose a hybrid of upstream and downstream taxes on single-use plastics that will not only potentially deter overuse of such plastics, but also generate an adequate disaster fund to alleviate the state’s burden of funding the future damages and revenue loss caused by the threat of rising sea levels.
经常被认为是最终的海滩目的地,世界闻名的海滩环绕着佛罗里达,长期以来定义了阳光之州的文化。佛罗里达洁白的沙滩不仅定义了它的文化,也是佛罗里达经济的基础。不幸的是,这种文化和经济基础正在受到威胁,吸引大批游客的世界闻名的海滩开始消失。海平面上升的威胁不仅局限于深受游客和当地人喜爱的沙滩;佛罗里达周围海岸线的退化也将导致这个阳光之州海岸线上那些富裕的、能产生税收的房地产的流失。由于旅游经济中相当大一部分的损失迫在眉睫,加上海滨房地产带来的财产税损失即将到来,佛罗里达州政府为应急计划的必要性再怎么强调也不为过。虽然海平面上升的威胁只影响佛罗里达州的局部范围,但其原因是全球范围的,任何阻止海平面上升的行动都需要在全球范围内进行。因此,在局部范围内阻止海平面上升的想法是不现实的:在这个关键时刻,重点应该是减缓。具体来说,在佛罗里达州的情况下,目标应该是产生足够的灾难基金来支付海滩营养项目,潜在的财产税收入损失,以及游客收入的损失。本文的范围将分为两个部分:第一部分将介绍海平面上升的简要背景,对未来海平面上升的预测,以及佛罗里达州对海平面上升的独特脆弱性;第二部分将提出对一次性塑料征收上下游混合税,这不仅可以潜在地阻止此类塑料的过度使用,而且还可以产生足够的灾难基金,以减轻国家为海平面上升威胁造成的未来损害和收入损失提供资金的负担。
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引用次数: 0
Why Did US Governors Delay Lockdowns Against COVID-19? Disease Science vs Learning, Cascades, and Political Polarization 为什么美国州长推迟了针对COVID-19的封锁?疾病科学vs学习,级联和政治两极分化
Pub Date : 2020-04-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575004
G. Tellis, Nitish Sood, A. Sood
As COVID-19 ravaged the US in the first quarter of 2020, the US lacked a uniform mandatory policy for containing its spread. Governors facing enormous opposing pressures from businesses and medical professionals adopted various policies, especially lockdowns. The authors statistically analyze the ensuing variance in governors’ decisions as a function of four predictors and several control variables. They draw their four predictors from medical science and behavioral theories of political polarization, social learning, and information cascades. The conventional wisdom is that, following medical science, governors ordered lockdown primarily on the percent of their state’s population infected with COVID-19. Contrary to this premise, the authors find other variables have higher influence including the following: 1) The political affiliation of the governor had a big effect on the hazard of a lockdown – on any day, a democratic governor was three times more likely than a republican governor to order a lockdown. 2) Social learning played an important role. Governors of states afflicted later by COVID-19 acted much faster than those who were afflicted earlier; for every day later COVID-19 started in a state, a governor was 1.4 times more likely to order a lockdown. 3) Actions of some governors triggered mini-cascades, sparking multiple governors to order lockdowns in their states in the next three days. 4) The percentage of the state’s population infected with COVID-19 (a measure of belief in the science of disease transmission) had a weak effect on the governors’ decisions.
2020年第一季度,新冠肺炎疫情肆虐美国,美国缺乏统一的强制性防控政策。面对来自企业和医疗专业人士的巨大反对压力,州长采取了各种政策,特别是封锁。作者统计分析了管理者决策的后续方差作为四个预测因子和几个控制变量的函数。他们从政治两极分化、社会学习和信息级联的医学和行为理论中得出了四个预测因素。传统观点认为,根据医学科学,州长下令主要对该州感染COVID-19的人口百分比进行封锁。与此前提相反,作者发现其他变量具有更大的影响,包括以下因素:1)州长的政治派别对封锁的危害有很大影响——在任何一天,民主党州长下令封锁的可能性是共和党州长的三倍。2)社会学习发挥了重要作用。后来受COVID-19影响的州的州长比早期受影响的州采取的行动要快得多;每晚一天,新冠病毒在一个州爆发,州长下令封锁的可能性就会增加1.4倍。3)一些州长的行动引发了小规模的连锁反应,促使多位州长下令在未来三天内封锁所在州。4)该州感染COVID-19的人口比例(衡量人们对疾病传播科学的信任程度)对州长的决策影响不大。
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引用次数: 20
How Long Should Social Distancing Last? Predicting Time to Moderation, Control, and Containment of COVID-19 保持社交距离应该持续多久?预测缓和、控制和遏制COVID-19的时间
Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3562996
G. Tellis, A. Sood, Nitish Sood
Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in response to the Covid-19 pandemic have raised an urgent question in peoples’ minds, “How long must these restrictions last?” We propose two metrics of the spread of disease to answer this question: daily growth rate and time to double cumulative cases. These metrics enable three simple, intuitive, and actionable benchmarks to target: Moderation, Control, and Containment (growth < 10%, 1%, and 0.1% respectively). In addition, we define action or intervention as massive testing and quarantine, stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns. An analysis of top 36 countries and 50 states of the US affected by the epidemic as of end-March yield the following results. Any moderation or slowdown has so far been due only to aggressive intervention. Countries take an average of about three weeks to act. However, even aggressive intervention does not show immediate results. Countries take an average of about three weeks to moderate, four weeks to control, and over 6 weeks to contain the spread of the disease, after aggressive intervention. Substantial differences exist between large and small and Asian and European countries in time to act. Using these findings, we predict the likely dates of moderation and control for specific countries and States of the US. In the absence of a vaccine, cure, or massive testing and quarantine, lockdowns and stay-at-home orders will need to last for months. However, the US faces a unique challenge because only half the states have adopted aggressive intervention, and done so at varying times. Even if these states achieve control or containment, they may be vulnerable to contagion from other states that were late to do so.
为应对Covid-19大流行而实施的封锁和居家令在人们心中引发了一个紧迫的问题:“这些限制措施必须持续多久?”我们提出了两个衡量疾病传播的指标来回答这个问题:每日增长率和累计病例翻倍的时间。这些指标可以实现三个简单、直观且可操作的基准:适度、控制和遏制(增长率分别< 10%、1%和0.1%)。此外,我们将行动或干预定义为大规模检测和隔离、居家令或封锁。截至3月底,对受疫情影响最大的36个国家和美国50个州的分析得出以下结果。迄今为止,任何缓和或放缓都只是由于积极的干预。各国平均需要大约三周的时间来采取行动。然而,即使是积极的干预也不会产生立竿见影的效果。在采取积极干预措施后,各国平均需要大约三周时间来缓和疫情,四周时间来控制疫情,超过六周时间来遏制疫情的传播。大小之间存在着巨大差异,亚洲和欧洲国家在采取行动的时间上也存在着巨大差异。利用这些发现,我们预测了美国特定国家和州的适度和控制的可能日期。在没有疫苗、治疗方法或大规模检测和隔离的情况下,封锁和居家令将需要持续数月。然而,美国面临着一个独特的挑战,因为只有一半的州采取了积极的干预措施,而且是在不同的时间采取的。即使这些国家实现了控制或遏制,它们也可能很容易受到其他国家的传染,这些国家在这方面做得很晚。
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引用次数: 21
Efficiency and Effectiveness of Measures to Combat the Coronavirus in Selected Countries 部分国家抗击冠状病毒措施的效率和效果
Pub Date : 2020-03-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561616
Constantin Zaman, B. Meunier
The current contagion that has rapidly spread all over the world mobilised impressive financial and sanitary resources in most of the affected countries. However, in the majority of cases these measures seem insufficient or inefficient, as the number of cases has exploded, while the increase in the number of deaths becomes alarming. In this paper we analyse the response of authorities to the pandemic challenges in those countries that are confronted with a large number of cases. Those twelve countries record together 86,65% of total confirmed cases reported in the world. The analysis considers the statistical data available on March 25, 2020. An estimation of the duration, the number of infections and the number of deceases is equally provided.
目前在世界各地迅速蔓延的传染病在大多数受影响国家调动了令人印象深刻的财政和卫生资源。然而,在大多数情况下,这些措施似乎不够充分或效率低下,因为病例数量激增,而死亡人数的增加令人震惊。在本文中,我们分析了那些面临大量病例的国家当局对大流行挑战的反应。这12个国家总共记录了世界上报告的确诊病例总数的86.65%。该分析考虑了2020年3月25日的统计数据。同时提供了对持续时间、感染人数和死亡人数的估计。
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引用次数: 1
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