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Physical Macroeconomics: Part III - Economy and General Living System Principles 物理宏观经济学:第三部分-经济和一般生活系统原则
Pub Date : 2019-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3447749
V. Bartenev
Four principles of living systems (openness, isomorphism, feedbacks and steady state) formulated by Bertalanffy in his General System Theory, are fully applicable to the economy. In addition to these principles, we introduce the fifth one – the creation of information. By creating information instead of useless entropy removed from the system to the environment, the living systems increase the information component of their working potential. The growth of information potential allows them to exist, develop and evolve despite the fatal entropy tendency expressed by the second law of thermodynamics.

Socio-economic evolution is a continuation of biological evolution. The appearance of nerves in biological systems and the creation of electrical networks in the economy have been fundamental milestones, after which the information potential growth had accelerated sharply.

Both highly evolved biological organisms and economies have various levels of self-regulation. At the level of biochemical reactions and market interactions, there is a random self-regulation, while at the macro level, centrally determined regulation plays a key role.
Bertalanffy在《一般系统论》中提出的生命系统的四项原则(开放性、同构性、反馈性和稳态性)完全适用于经济。除了这些原则之外,我们还介绍了第五个原则——信息的创造。通过创造信息,而不是从系统中向环境中移除无用的熵,生命系统增加了其工作潜力的信息成分。信息势的增长使它们能够存在、发展和演化,尽管热力学第二定律表达了致命的熵倾向。社会经济进化是生物进化的延续。生物系统中神经的出现和经济中电力网络的建立是根本性的里程碑,此后信息潜力的增长急剧加速。高度进化的生物有机体和经济都有不同程度的自我调节。在生化反应和市场相互作用层面,存在随机的自我调节,而在宏观层面,中央决定的调节起着关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Where Economics Went Wrong: A Review Essay 经济学哪里错了:一篇评论文章
Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3433105
Marianne Johnson
In their recent book, Where Economics Went Wrong, David Colander and Craig Freedman (2019) argue that economics went wrong when it abandoned the Classical liberal firewall that demanded separation of scientific theory from the art of policy making. Colander has long advanced the idea that applied economics should be classified neither as positive nor as normative economics. Instead, it should be placed in a third category, “the art of economics”; art requires vision and acumen in addition to knowledge and technique, and is thus more akin to engineering than the natural sciences. The primary contribution of Where Economics Went Wrong is thus to advance Colander’s general argument through the specific story of Chicago economics. This essay make two interconnected claims. First, while I agree with Colander and Freedman that applied economics would benefit from more art and less calculation, the Chicago school is not the best vehicle by which to tell a convincing story. Second, a thicker history of the Chicago school reminds us of the importance of institutions and rules, not only for understanding the economy but also for thinking about how economists have constructed our discipline and how internal institutions and incentives affect our behavioral choices. ( JEL A11, B20, B41, B52)
大卫·科兰德(David Colander)和克雷格·弗里德曼(Craig Freedman)在他们的新书《经济学哪里出错了》(Where Economics Went Wrong, 2019)中认为,经济学在放弃古典自由主义的防火墙时就出错了,这种防火墙要求将科学理论与政策制定艺术分开。科兰德早就提出了一种观点,即应用经济学既不应被归类为实证经济学,也不应被归类为规范经济学。相反,它应该被归入第三类,即“经济学的艺术”;艺术除了需要知识和技术之外,还需要远见和敏锐,因此它更像工程学而不是自然科学。因此,《经济学错在哪里》的主要贡献是通过芝加哥经济学的具体故事推进了科兰德的一般论点。这篇文章提出了两个相互关联的观点。首先,尽管我同意科兰德和弗里德曼的观点,即应用经济学将受益于更多的艺术和更少的计算,但芝加哥学派并不是讲述令人信服的故事的最佳工具。其次,芝加哥学派更丰富的历史提醒我们制度和规则的重要性,这不仅有助于我们理解经济,也有助于我们思考经济学家如何构建我们的学科,以及内部制度和激励如何影响我们的行为选择。(jel a11, b20, b41, b52)
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引用次数: 5
Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past 宏观经济研究,现在和过去
Pub Date : 2019-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3225417
P. Glandon, Kenneth N. Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder, C. Stroup
How is macroeconomic research conducted and what is it trying to accomplish? We explore these questions using information gleaned from 1,894 articles published in 10 leading journals. The emphasis on quantitative, computation-intensive theory-based analysis has grown over the past 40 years, while the use of econometric methods to test economic hypotheses has diminished. Applied micro techniques and micro data have displaced time series methods. Market imperfections are pervasive and financial frictions have received increasing attention in the past 10 years. The frequency with which non-macro JEL codes appear in macro articles indicates a great deal of overlap between macroeconomics and other fields. (JEL A14, B41, C10, C18, E00, E10)
宏观经济研究是如何进行的,它试图实现什么?我们利用从10个主要期刊上发表的1894篇文章中收集到的信息来探讨这些问题。在过去的40年里,对定量的、计算密集型的、基于理论的分析的重视有所增加,而使用计量经济学方法来检验经济假设的情况却有所减少。应用微技术和微数据已经取代了时间序列方法。市场缺陷无处不在,金融摩擦在过去10年里受到了越来越多的关注。非宏观JEL代码在宏观文章中出现的频率表明宏观经济学与其他领域有很大的重叠。(jel a14, b41, c10, c18, e00, e10)
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引用次数: 4
A Phillips Curve for the Poor: The Development of the Sawtooth Wages Model of Inflation 穷人的菲利普斯曲线:通货膨胀的锯齿工资模型的发展
Pub Date : 2019-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3404953
André Roncaglia de Carvalho
This paper aims to contribute to the literature on the intellectual history of the economics discipline by delving into the history of the the sawtooth wages model, namely: the behavior of periodically-adjusted fixed nominal wages under persistent inflationary conditions. Ranging from the immediate post-War years to the end of the 1960s, our narrative reveals that, prior to Nicholas Kaldor’s statement of the sawtooth model of real wages, other contributions sprung from various traditions. To this effect, we underscore this model’s ancestor in the Operations Research research program and its the early neoclassical version by Bent Hansen (1951). Later analogous representations by Celso Furtado and Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen maintain the model’s legacy until it is fully rehabilitated as workhorse for theoretical and policy analysis, in the 1980s, as the inertial inflation hypothesis gains terrain in the second round of the monetarist-structuralist debate on economic stabilization in Latin America.
本文旨在通过深入研究锯齿工资模型的历史,即周期性调整的固定名义工资在持续通货膨胀条件下的行为,为经济学学科的思想史做出贡献。从战后不久到20世纪60年代末,我们的叙述表明,在尼古拉斯·卡尔多(Nicholas Kaldor)提出实际工资锯齿模型之前,其他贡献来自不同的传统。为此,我们在运筹学研究项目中强调了该模型的祖先,以及Bent Hansen(1951)的早期新古典主义版本。后来,Celso Furtado和Nicholas georgesu - roegen的类似陈述维持了该模型的遗产,直到20世纪80年代,惯性通货膨胀假说在拉丁美洲关于经济稳定的货币主义-结构主义辩论的第二轮中获得了优势,惯性通货膨胀假说被完全恢复为理论和政策分析的主要工具。
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引用次数: 0
Dilemmas of Islamic Economics 伊斯兰经济学的困境
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3402378
Muhammad Khan
Islamic economics is not a social science yet. It is a work in progress. Islamic economists differ on methodology for developing Islamic economic thought into a social science. They face several dilemmas surrounding religion, Islamic law, conventional economics, contents of Islamic economics, current practice of Islamic finance and zakah, etc. Until fog clears around these dilemmas the objective of developing Islamic economics as a social science will remain unaccomplished. The paper discusses 11 dilemmas and suggests possible way forward. It aims at providing a platform for discussing and developing the Islamic economic thought into a social science.
伊斯兰经济学还不是一门社会科学。这是一项正在进行的工作。伊斯兰经济学家在将伊斯兰经济思想发展为一门社会科学的方法论上存在分歧。他们面临着宗教、伊斯兰教法、传统经济学、伊斯兰经济学内容、伊斯兰金融和天课的现行实践等方面的困境。除非围绕这些困境的迷雾消散,否则发展伊斯兰经济学作为一门社会科学的目标仍将无法实现。本文讨论了11个困境,并提出了可能的前进方向。它旨在为伊斯兰经济思想的讨论和发展提供一个平台,使其成为一门社会科学。
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引用次数: 2
Bunge’s Causality and the Laws of Economics 邦吉的因果关系和经济规律
Pub Date : 2019-05-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3383942
Alexander Slutsky
This paper deals with the analysis of the nature of economic relations from the perspective of Mario Bunge’s idea of causality. According to Bunge, causality cannot be regarded as the universal connection of phenomena. The application of Bunge’s concept to economics leads to the development of the hypothesis of the non-causal determination of economic phenomena. The contradiction between the non-causal nature of economic phenomena and the dominant causal paradigm in economic theory are shown and discussed. The hypothesis of non-causal determinations allows to explain an ongoing argument between monetarists and Keynesians, the viability of the different schools of economic thought, the existence of the radical criticism of neoclassical economics, the isolation of economic theory from applied economic disciplines.
本文从马里奥·邦格的因果关系观出发,对经济关系的本质进行了分析。根据邦格的观点,因果关系不能被视为现象之间的普遍联系。邦格的概念在经济学中的应用导致了经济现象的非因果决定假说的发展。揭示并讨论了经济现象的非因果性与经济理论中占主导地位的因果范式之间的矛盾。非因果决定的假设可以解释货币主义者和凯恩斯主义者之间正在进行的争论,不同经济思想流派的可行性,对新古典经济学的激进批评的存在,以及经济理论与应用经济学科的隔离。
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引用次数: 0
Epistemic Institutionalism: Rules and Order, Complexity, and Liberalism 认识制度主义:规则与秩序、复杂性与自由主义
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3380593
P. Lewis
This paper offers an immanent critique of Peter Boettke's recent book, 'F.A. Hayek: : Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy'. That is to say, it takes some of the goals Boettke sets out to achieve and suggests how they might have been pursued more effectively. Issues addressed include the nature of epistemic institutionalism, the relationship between rules and social order, the significance of Hayek's work on complexity, and the importance of debates over the nature of liberalism.
本文对彼得·勃特克的新书《哈耶克:经济学、政治经济学和社会哲学》进行了内在的批判。也就是说,它需要博伊特克设定的一些目标来实现,并建议如何更有效地实现这些目标。讨论的问题包括认识制度主义的本质,规则与社会秩序之间的关系,哈耶克关于复杂性的工作的意义,以及关于自由主义本质的辩论的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Comparing the Original 1933, IS-LM (LP) Model of Keynes With the Advanced Version of February, 1936 Contained in Chapter 21 of the General Theory 凯恩斯1933年的IS-LM (LP)模型与《通论》第21章1936年2月的先进版本的比较
Pub Date : 2019-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3378252
M. E. Brady
Keynes’s original IS-LM (LP) model of 1933, although a major conceptual breakthrough, was technically and mathematically flawed because Keynes incorporated realized and expected variables in the same set of equations.

Keynes had solved this problem by early 1936 by formulating a completely new model that David Champernowne and Brian Reddaway had never seen or heard of before in Keynes’s lectures between 1933 and 1935 – the D-Z model of chapters 20 and 21. Keynes provided a brief introduction, outline and summary of the D-Z model on pages 24-32 of chapter 3 of the General Theory. The D-Z model focused exclusively on expectations and uncertainty. The IS-LM (LP) model focused exclusively on the realized, actual outcomes taking place in the economy in the Goods and Money sectors. The labor market, production function, marginal optimizing conditions and theory of the firm, with uncertainty and profit expectations integrated into the formal model, was done within the framework of the D-Z model in chapters 20 and 21. Both Kahn and Joan Robinson had no inkling about what was transpiring in chapters 20 and 21 of the General Theory.

Keynes’s final IS-LM(LP) model represents a major improvement over Keynes’s first exposition of his IS-LM model in December, 1933. Keynes’s consumption function, C, has an explicit marginal propensity to consume incorporated and investment multiplier defined. The variable, Y, is explicitly incorporated into the LM (LP) equation,M=L, as M=L(Y,r).
凯恩斯最初于1933年提出的IS-LM (LP)模型虽然在概念上取得了重大突破,但在技术上和数学上都存在缺陷,因为凯恩斯在同一组方程中纳入了已实现和预期变量。凯恩斯在1936年初解决了这个问题,他提出了一个全新的模型,这个模型是大卫·尚佩诺内和布莱恩·雷德韦在1933年至1935年凯恩斯的演讲中从未见过或听说过的,即第20章和第21章的D-Z模型。凯恩斯在《通论》第三章24-32页对D-Z模型做了简要的介绍、提纲和总结。D-Z模型只关注预期和不确定性。IS-LM (LP)模型只关注经济中商品和货币部门发生的已实现的实际结果。第20章和第21章在D-Z模型的框架内对劳动力市场、生产函数、边际优化条件和企业理论进行了研究,并将不确定性和利润预期纳入正式模型。卡恩和琼·罗宾逊都不知道《通论》第20章和第21章发生了什么。凯恩斯最后的IS-LM(LP)模型代表了凯恩斯在1933年12月首次阐述他的IS-LM模型的重大改进。凯恩斯的消费函数C具有明确的边际消费倾向,并定义了投资乘数。变量Y显式地并入LM (LP)方程M=L,即M=L(Y,r)。
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引用次数: 0
On the Style Used by Keynes in Presenting His IS-LM(LP) Model in Chapter 21 of the General Theory: Literary Prose, Formal Mathematics or Both? 论《通论》第21章凯恩斯提出IS-LM(LP)模型的风格:文学散文、形式数学还是两者兼而有之?
Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3376368
M. E. Brady
Keynes’s style in presenting his technical analysis in the General Theory was not purely mathematical or purely literary. It was a blend of both. This is especially the case when Keynes decided to bring all of the elements in his IS-LM(LP) model together in section four of chapter 21 of the General Theory after he had gone over the underlying D-Z model in chapter 20 of the General Theory. Keynes incorporated uncertainty and expectations within the theory of purely competitive firms in his D-Z model. Keynes deployed the standard, technical exposition of the goal of (expected) profit maximization using the necessary and sufficient first and second order marginal conditions. This allowed Keynes to derive his Aggregate Supply Curve, a locus of all expected D and Expected Z outcomes that represents a set of multiple equilibria.

Keynes’s IS-LM(LP) model of chapter 21 DOES NOT deal with uncertainty and expectations, although Keynes does show how to do so within the context of chapter 20 when he extends his D-Z model of chapter 20 on pp.304-306 of chapter 21 to incorporate the LM curve in his elasticity analysis dealing with the elasticity ed.

There are NOT two different competing models in the General Theory, since the IS-LM(LP) model in chapter 21 is built on the foundation of the D-Z model chapter 20.

Keynes’s style of presentation has created a great deal of difficulty for economists looking for either a purely mathematical exposition or looking for a purely Marshallian, literary exposition. In fact, Keynes blends both together.

Mainstream economists, like Dimand, Young, Hoover, de Vroey, and Rubin, claim that there was no IS-LM model in the GT. They agree with the Post Keynesian school. Their differences with the Post Keynesian position is that they claim that it was Hicks, Harrod, Meade, or Lange, or some combination of the four, who tediously gathered all of the scattered parts of Keynes’s verbal, literary, prose, non formal, non mathematical, Marshallian analysis from the GT and created the IS-LM model in 1937. It is unclear to this author how these types of “interpretations” were ever taken seriously by the economics profession.

Keynes’s mathematical constructions supporting the three elements listed on pp.298-299 are in the GT explicitly on p.115, p.137 and p.199. It is unclear to me how Keynes’s system of equations was supposedly strewn throughout the GT for Hicks, Harrod, Meade, and Lange to dig out and reconstitute. What exactly is being reconstituted by Hicks, Harrod, Meade and Lange?
凯恩斯在《通论》中提出他的技术分析的风格不是纯粹的数学或纯粹的文学。这是两者的结合。当凯恩斯在《通论》第20章中复习了基础的D-Z模型后,他决定在《通论》第21章第4节中把他的is - lm (LP)模型中的所有元素结合在一起时,情况尤其如此。凯恩斯在他的D-Z模型中把不确定性和预期纳入了纯竞争企业理论。凯恩斯利用必要和充分的一级和二级边际条件,对(预期)利润最大化的目标进行了标准的、技术性的阐述。这使得凯恩斯能够推导出他的总供给曲线,这条曲线是所有预期D和预期Z结果的轨迹,代表了一组多重均衡。凯恩斯的is - LM模型(LP)模型21章不处理不确定性和预期,尽管凯恩斯的上下文中显示这样做第20章第20章当他延伸D-Z模型pp.304 - 306 21章将LM曲线的弹性分析处理弹性ed.There不是两种不同的竞争模型的一般理论,从21章的is - LM模型(LP)模型是建立在第20章D-Z模型的基础。凯恩斯的演讲风格给经济学家们带来了很大的困难,无论是寻找一个纯粹的数学解释,还是寻找一个纯粹的马歇尔式的文学解释。事实上,凯恩斯将两者融合在一起。主流经济学家,如迪曼、杨、胡佛、德弗罗伊和鲁宾,声称GT中没有IS-LM模型。他们同意后凯恩斯学派。他们与后凯恩斯主义立场的不同之处在于,他们声称是希克斯、哈罗德、米德或兰格,或这四人的某种组合,乏味地收集了凯恩斯的口头、文学、散文、非正式、非数学、马歇尔式分析的所有零散部分,并在1937年创建了is - lm模型。作者不清楚这些类型的“解释”是如何被经济学专业人士认真对待的。凯恩斯支持第298-299页列出的三个要素的数学结构,在《总论》第115页、第137页和第199页都有明确的表述。我不清楚凯恩斯的方程组是如何散布在整个GT时代,让希克斯、哈罗德、米德和兰格去挖掘和重建的。希克斯、哈罗德、米德和兰格到底在重组什么?
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引用次数: 0
Samuelson's Approach to Revealed Preference Theory: Some Recent Advances 萨缪尔森揭示偏好理论的方法:一些最新进展
Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500537
T. Demuynck, P. Hjertstrand
Since Paul Samuelson introduced the theory of revealed preference, it has become one of the most important concepts in economics. This chapter surveys some recent contributions in the revealed preference literature. We depart from Afriat's theorem, which provides the conditions for a data set to be consistent with the utility maximization hypothesis. We provide and motivate a new condition, which we call the Varian inequalities. The advantage of the Varian inequalities is that they can be formulated as a set of mixed integer linear inequalities, which are linear in the quantity and price data. We show how the Varian inequalities can be used to derive revealed preference tests for weak separability, and show how it can be used to formulate tests of the collective household model. Finally, we discuss measurement errors in the observed data and measures of goodness-of-fit, power and predictive success.
自保罗·萨缪尔森提出显性偏好理论以来,它已成为经济学中最重要的概念之一。本章概述了揭示性偏好的最新研究成果。我们从Afriat定理出发,该定理提供了数据集符合效用最大化假设的条件。我们提出并激发了一个新的条件,我们称之为瓦里安不等式。瓦里安不等式的优点是它们可以被表述为一组混合整数线性不等式,它们在数量和价格数据上都是线性的。我们展示了如何使用瓦里安不等式来推导弱可分离性的揭示偏好测试,并展示了如何使用它来制定集体家庭模型的测试。最后,我们讨论了观测数据中的测量误差以及拟合优度、功率和预测成功的测量方法。
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引用次数: 12
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