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Models, realism and market process 模型、现实主义和市场过程
Pub Date : 2021-07-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891107
Agustina Borella
We will argue that the common contrast between Neoclassical models and Austrian School is not such, if it is assumed Friedman’s 1953 text, Musgrave’s (1981), and Mäki’s MISS account of models (Models as Isolations and credible Surrogate Systems). In this context the theory of market process might be understood as the model of the Austrian School of Economics, considering the model structure: “if such and such assumptions, then…”. The assumptions would be: a) prices, b) free market, and c) the tendency to learning. We may formulate the model in this way: “if there are prices, free market, and tendency to learning, then the market tends towards coordination” (Zanotti & Borella, 2015). The theory of market process might take part in the discussion on how realistic these assumptions are. We will point out meaningful similarities between the notion of pattern prediction developed in Hayek (1964) and the notion of model (Borella, 2021). To show the relevance of the ontological bases for the assessment of the realism of models, we will introduce the philosophical foundation of spontaneous order. Once more, Hayek seems to have brought the Austrian School closer to the debate over realism of economic models.
如果假设弗里德曼1953年的文本、马斯格雷夫(1981年)和Mäki对模型的MISS描述(作为孤立和可信替代系统的模型),我们将论证新古典主义模型和奥地利学派之间的共同对比并非如此。在这种背景下,市场过程理论可以被理解为奥地利经济学派的模型,考虑到模型结构:“如果这样和那样的假设,那么……”。假设是:a)价格,b)自由市场,c)学习的趋势。我们可以这样表述模型:“如果有价格、自由市场和学习倾向,那么市场就会趋向于协调”(Zanotti & Borella, 2015)。市场过程理论可能会参与讨论这些假设的现实程度。我们将指出哈耶克(1964)提出的模式预测概念与模型概念(Borella, 2021)之间有意义的相似之处。为了展示评估模型实在性的本体论基础的相关性,我们将介绍自发秩序的哲学基础。哈耶克似乎又一次把奥地利学派带向了关于经济模型的现实主义的争论。
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引用次数: 0
The Mises-Hayek Connection 米塞斯-哈耶克的联系
Pub Date : 2021-07-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3882193
Craig Duddy
A good friend of mine, Brent Gilliland wrote an article entitled 'In Defense of Misesian Historical Revisionism' and in this article, I attempt to draw a re-formulation of the argument that Gilliland makes and develop it from a Hayekian point of view. I attempt to show that, in general historical evolution cannot be traced to a strict rationalist interpretation, but rather history evolves along the lines of observed behaviours, cooperation, culture and social values. I attempt to emphasise that, contrary to Gilliland's emphasis on individual ideas, it should really be placed on various interacting parts rather than merely a stone-cold abstract individual.
我的一个好朋友,Brent Gilliland写了一篇文章,题为“为米塞斯历史修正主义辩护”,在这篇文章中,我试图从哈耶克的观点出发,对Gilliland提出的论点进行重新表述。我试图表明,一般来说,历史的演变不能追溯到严格的理性主义解释,而是沿着观察到的行为、合作、文化和社会价值观的路线发展。我试图强调的是,与吉利兰对个人思想的强调相反,它应该被放在各种相互作用的部分上,而不仅仅是一个冰冷的抽象个体。
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引用次数: 0
FELICIDADE TRAZ DINHEIRO? UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DA LITERATURA SOBRE A ECONOMIA DA FELICIDADE (Does Happiness Bring Money? A Systematic Review of the Economy of Happiness) 幸福能带来金钱吗?对幸福经济学文献的系统回顾(幸福能带来金钱吗?)经济的系统的评论"幸福)
Pub Date : 2021-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3863730
Ahmed Sameer El Khatib
Portuguese abstract: A mais antiga referência da filosofia sobre o termo felicidade é derivada do filósofo grego Tales de Mileto (624-558 a.C.), que designa felicidade como ter um corpo saudável, uma alma com boa formação e ser um indivíduo de sorte. Já para Sócrates, a felicidade não possui uma conexão tão direta com o corpo, a maior importância é dada a estar bem com a alma, propiciado por uma conduta adequada e virtuosa. Para Kant, a felicidade está ligada com os desejos e prazeres, não constitui parte de uma investigação filosófica. Nas últimas décadas que os estudos que envolvem felicidade na Economia se estabelecem de fato como temática alternativa. A explicação para isto encontra-se no progresso material alcançado pelo mundo e pelos questionamentos de alguns economistas da validade de indicadores estritamente econômicos, como o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), para representar a satisfação com a vida dos cidadãos de um país. Dessa forma, o objetivo principal deste é contribuir para o corpo de conhecimento existente, consolidando as descobertas da literatura sobre Economia da Felicidade; agrupando-as em temas e subtemas principais; descrevendo os mecanismos com base nos artigos empíricos precedentes, destacando as variáveis independentes, dependentes, de controle e moderadoras, para estudar as relações causais entre as variáveis em estudo; propondo uma agenda para pesquisas futuras; e informar os legisladores sobre as decisões que influenciam o nível de felicidade humana por meio de regras e regulamentos legislativos. Nossos resultados sugerem priorizar a conceituação de felicidade enquanto computa o nível de felicidade nos níveis individual ou coletivo. Além disso, o estudo recomenda que os governos estabeleçam as condições que permitam aos indivíduos relatar a felicidade independentemente da pressão política para responder estrategicamente por números impressionantes de nível de felicidade no nível macro.

English abstract: Philosophy's earliest reference to the term happiness is derived from the Greek philosopher Thales of Miletus (624-558 BC), who designates happiness as having a healthy body, a well-educated soul, and being a lucky individual. For Socrates, happiness does not have such a direct connection with the body, the greatest importance is given to being well with the soul, provided by an adequate and virtuous conduct. For Kant, happiness is linked with desires and pleasures, it is not part of a philosophical investigation. In recent decades, studies involving happiness in economics have in fact established themselves as an alternative theme. The explanation for this is found in the material progress achieved by the world and in the questioning of some economists about the validity of strictly economic indicators, such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to represent the satisfaction with life of the citizens of a country. In this way, its main objective is to contribute to the existing body of knowledge, consol
关于幸福一词最古老的哲学参考来自希腊哲学家米利都的泰勒斯(公元前624-558年),他把幸福定义为拥有健康的身体、受过良好训练的灵魂和一个幸运的人。对于苏格拉底来说,幸福与身体并没有如此直接的联系,最重要的是灵魂的健康,由适当和美德的行为提供。对康德来说,幸福与欲望和快乐有关,而不是哲学研究的一部分。在过去的几十年里,关于经济中的幸福的研究实际上已经成为另一个主题。对此的解释在于世界上取得的物质进步,以及一些经济学家质疑国内生产总值(gdp)等严格的经济指标的有效性,以代表一个国家公民的生活满意度。因此,它的主要目的是为现有的知识体系做出贡献,巩固关于幸福经济学的文献发现;将它们按主要主题和副主题分组;在以往实证文章的基础上描述机制,突出自变量、因变量、控制变量和调节变量,研究研究变量之间的因果关系;提出未来研究的议程;并通过立法法规向立法者通报影响人类幸福水平的决定。我们的结果表明,在计算个人或集体水平的幸福水平时,优先考虑幸福的概念。此外,该研究建议政府建立条件,允许个人报告幸福,而不受政治压力的影响,以战略性地应对宏观水平上令人印象深刻的幸福水平数字。英语文摘:Philosophy'幸福是最早的引用的词派生从米利都的希腊哲学家泰勒斯(公元前624 - -558),who designates幸福的拥有一个健康的身体,那么-educated灵魂,是一个幸运的人。对于苏格拉底来说,幸福与身体没有直接的联系,最重要的是给予灵魂的幸福,提供一个适当的和美德的行为。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查,这个县的土地面积为。在过去的几十年里,经济学中涉及幸福的研究实际上已经确立了自己作为一个替代主题。对此的解释可以从世界所取得的实质性进展中找到,也可以从一些经济学家质疑严格的经济指标,如国内生产总值(GDP)是否能代表一个国家公民对生活的满意程度中找到。这样,其主要目的是促进现有的知识体系,巩固关于幸福经济的文献成果;将它们分组为主要主题和子主题;根据以往的经验文章,描述机制,强调独立、依赖、控制和调节变量,研究所研究变量之间的因果关系;提出未来研究议程;并向决策者通报通过立法规则和条例影响人类幸福水平的决定。我们的结果建议,在计算个人或集体水平的幸福水平时,优先考虑幸福的概念化。此外,研究报告建议,各国政府应建立条件,使个人能够在不受政治压力的情况下报告幸福状况,以便对宏观层面上令人印象深刻的幸福状况作出战略反应。
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引用次数: 0
Simplified Smoothing Splines for APC Models APC模型的简化平滑样条
Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3852449
G. Venter
Smoothing splines are splines fit including a roughness penalty. They can be used across groups of variables in regression models to produce more parsimonious models with improved accuracy. For APC (age-period-cohort) models, the variables in each direction can be numbered sequentially 1:N, which simplifies spline fitting. Further simplification is proposed using a different roughness penalty. Some key calculations then become closed-form, and numeric optimization for the degree of smoothing is simpler. Further, this allows the entire estimation to be done simply in MCMC for Bayesian and random-effects models, improving the estimation of the smoothing parameter and providing distributions of the parameters (or random effects) and the selection of the spline knots.
平滑样条是包含粗糙度惩罚的样条拟合。它们可以跨回归模型中的变量组使用,以生成更简洁的模型,并提高准确性。对于APC (age-period-cohort)模型,每个方向的变量可以按顺序编号为1:N,简化了样条拟合。进一步的简化建议使用不同的粗糙度惩罚。一些关键的计算变成了封闭形式,平滑度的数值优化就更简单了。此外,这使得整个估计可以在MCMC中简单地完成贝叶斯和随机效应模型,改进平滑参数的估计,提供参数的分布(或随机效应)和样条结点的选择。
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引用次数: 0
Concentration of Power at the Editorial Boards of Economics Journals 经济学期刊编辑部的权力集中
Pub Date : 2021-05-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3847686
Lorenzo Ductor, B. Visser
Evolutionary arguments and incentive theory point to the importance of variety and rotation of editorial board members to stimulate innovative research. Using a unique dataset covering more than 100 economics journals over the period 1990-2011, we document trends in the incidence of multiple positions, editorial duration and institutional background for more than 6,100 board members. We put these figures into perspective using the literature on boards of directors and measures of market concentration. The picture that emerges is of a discipline with a high concentration of institutional and individual power, especially at the more prestigious journals. Evidence suggests this indeed matters: there is a strong negative association between editorial duration and journal impact.
进化理论和激励理论指出,编辑委员会成员的多样性和轮换性对促进创新研究的重要性。利用涵盖1990年至2011年期间100多家经济学期刊的独特数据集,我们记录了6100多名董事会成员的多重职位发生率、编辑时间和机构背景的趋势。我们使用关于董事会和市场集中度度量的文献对这些数据进行了透视。出现的情况是,这是一个机构和个人权力高度集中的学科,尤其是在更有声望的期刊上。证据表明这确实很重要:编辑时间和期刊影响之间存在强烈的负相关。
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引用次数: 9
The labor share and structural change: insights from Baumol and Lewis 劳动收入占比和结构变化:来自鲍莫尔和刘易斯的见解
Pub Date : 2021-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3807373
C. Rada, A. Schiavone, Rudiger von Arnim
This paper investigates the interaction of structural change and the labor share. We use a series of thought experiments that combine theoretical assumptions underlying labor markets in Baumol and Lewis with the accounting of a sectoral decomposition of the labor share. The focus lies on a shift of employment from progressive to stagnant activities. To single out this shift, we construct simplified, hypothetical economies of Baumolian and Lewisian type. A thus sharpened Occam's
razor leads to clear and illustrative results: Baumolian structural change is inconsistent with the facts, whereas Lewisian outcomes conform to observed phenomena. A key issue in the relevant Lewisian scenario is that progressive activities take center stage. The details of our contribution are as follows. First, the sectoral decomposition shows that increasing stagnant sector employment shares coincides with downward decoupling in progressive activities, despite the fact that stagnant sector labor shares are higher. Second, we formulate cases based on the most consequential assumptions outlined in Baumol (1967) and Lewis (1954). Key results are that: (i) stagnant sector distribution dominates under Baumolian structural change; (ii) Lewisian structural change entertains the possibility of hysteresis; and (iii) decoupling of wages and productivity growth emerges only
in the Lewis classical model.
本文研究了结构变化与劳动收入占比的相互作用。我们使用了一系列思想实验,将Baumol和Lewis的劳动力市场理论假设与劳动份额的部门分解会计结合起来。重点在于就业从进步活动向停滞活动的转变。为了找出这种转变,我们构建了一个简化的、假设的鲍莫里和刘易斯型经济。一个如此尖锐的奥卡姆剃刀导致了清晰和说明性的结果:鲍莫利结构变化与事实不一致,而刘易斯结果符合观察到的现象。在相关的刘易斯情景中,一个关键问题是进步活动占据了中心舞台。我们的捐款详情如下。首先,部门分解表明,尽管停滞部门的劳动份额更高,但停滞部门就业份额的增加与渐进式活动的下行脱钩是一致的。其次,我们根据Baumol(1967)和Lewis(1954)提出的最重要的假设来制定案例。主要结果表明:(1)在鲍莫里结构变化条件下,停滞行业分布占主导地位;刘易斯结构变化考虑到迟滞的可能性;(三)工资与生产率增长的脱钩只出现在刘易斯的经典模型中。
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引用次数: 0
La macroeconomía: un punto de vista metodológico (Macroeconomics: A Methodological Approach) 宏观经济学:方法论观点(宏观经济学:方法论方法)
Pub Date : 2020-12-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756233
Mario García Molina
Spanish Abstract: Este documento realiza una comparación entre la microeconomía y la macroeconomía, con el fin de identificar las diferencias entre estas dos áreas. Se plantea que, aunque existen diferencias de objeto y método entre las dos, estas no son fundamentales. Se sugiere que la diferencia fundamental es de propósito: en la medida en que parte de la escuela neoclásica, la microeconomía busca dar una respuesta formal al problema filosófico de Adam Smith; la macroeconomía, en cambio, tiene un propósito más empírico: explicar la realidad y sus problemas y proponer alternativas de solución.

English Abstract: This paper compares micro and microeconomics in order to identify the differences between these two fields. Although there are differences in scope and method, they are not the key ones. The main difference is of purpose: as it is part of the neoclassical school, microeconomics intends to give a formal answer to Adam Smith’s philosophical question; in contrast, macroeconomics has a more empirical purpose: to explain reality and its problems, and to propose solutions to them.
摘要:本文对微观经济学和宏观经济学进行了比较,以确定这两个领域之间的差异。本文提出,虽然两者在对象和方法上存在差异,但这些差异并不是根本的。有人认为,根本的区别在于目的:在新古典主义学派的基础上,微观经济学寻求对亚当·斯密的哲学问题给出正式的答案;另一方面,宏观经济学有一个更实证的目的:解释现实及其问题,并提出解决方案。不要把English Abstract: This paper一班and microeconomics in order to确定the差异between two fields。虽然在范围和方法上有不同,但它们不是关键。主要区别在于目的:作为新古典主义学派的一部分,微观经济学旨在为亚当·斯密的哲学问题提供一个正式的答案;相比之下,宏观经济学有一个更实证的目的:解释现实及其问题,并提出解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
The Road to Novelty 新奇之路
Pub Date : 2020-12-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3257371
Helmuth Blaseio
What characterises a new insight, what distinguishes ideas, when may we speak of inspiration, what induces the formation of new (general) concepts, and how do such concepts assume their contentual meaning? How does such novelty (hence the title, The Road to Novelty) come into the world and what constitutes its essence? How are the phenomena of meaning, insight and idea connected to information? And, as a limitation: What conditions must the nature of recognition and any approach to it meet so that our cognitive capacity is able to answer the preceding questions, i.e. so that it may recognise itself? This set of questions points towards the core topic of epistemology or, more generally, of cognitive science. The cycle The Road to Novelty offers a new and integrative scientific solution to these questions. The key to answering them is provided by a new category of information content, which we call CoIn. This new category derives from generalised symmetry considerations and complements the familiar Bits & Bytes. As our guiding idea, the CoIn provide the pivotal point of all reflections and results along The Road to Novelty. Using typical problems and providing their solutions, as well as on the basis of theoretical deliberations, we show that the phenomena of meaning, insight and ideas can be integratively traced back to this common informational root CoIn. The concurrence of insight, a new category of information content, idea and meaning thus also explains the interdisciplinary nature of The Road to Novelty. Knowing about this common informational root in turn enables a new foundation of epistemology, from which far-reaching conclusions may be drawn regarding questions that are central to a number of disciplines within cognitive science, including philosophy, linguistics and the logic of language, information theory together with artificial intelligence (AI), and up to the limits of formal approaches. Finally, the nature of the emergence of insights or ideas – how does such novelty come into the world? – also becomes addressable as what we call symmetry synthesis: The tree of knowledge is rooted in symmetry syntheses. As a consequence, both the meanings of general language concepts and scientific results such as (physical) laws or models manifest themselves in the form of generalised symmetries (CoIn). Bits & Bytes can likewise be interpreted in the symmetry context, namely as symmetry breaking. They serve the realm of decisions (symmetry breaking), which is complementary to recognition (to symmetry syntheses or to CoIn). As a result, both categories of information content are rooted in the notion of symmetry, yet they in a sense root at opposite ends of the concept. Together, symmetry syntheses and symmetry breaks as it were jointly provide the DNA building blocks for the informational perspective on the world. The fact that the two symmetry perspectives refer to incommensurable aspects of the world means that strong AI (creativity,
什么是新的见解的特征,什么是不同的观念,什么时候我们可以谈论灵感,什么导致了新的(一般的)概念的形成,这些概念是如何获得它们的意旨的?这种新颖性(因此书名为《新颖性之路》)是如何进入这个世界的?它的本质是什么?意义、洞察力和想法的现象是如何与信息联系起来的?并且,作为一种限制:认识的本质和任何认识的方法必须满足什么条件,才能使我们的认知能力能够回答前面的问题,也就是说,使它能够认识自己?这一系列问题指向认识论的核心主题,或者更一般地说,指向认知科学的核心主题。《创新之路》一书为这些问题提供了一个全新的、综合的科学解决方案。回答这些问题的关键是由一种新的信息内容类别提供的,我们称之为CoIn。这个新类别源于广义对称的考虑,是对熟悉的比特和字节的补充。作为我们的指导思想,硬币提供了创新之路上所有思考和结果的枢纽点。通过典型问题及其解决方案,在理论探讨的基础上,我们发现意义现象、洞察力现象和思想现象都可以综合追溯到这一共同的信息根源CoIn。洞察力的并发,一种新的信息内容、思想和意义的类别,也解释了《创新之路》的跨学科性质。了解这种共同的信息根源反过来又可以为认识论奠定新的基础,从中可以得出关于认知科学中许多学科的核心问题的深远结论,包括哲学,语言学和语言逻辑,信息论与人工智能(AI),以及形式方法的限制。最后,见解或想法出现的本质——这些新奇事物是如何进入世界的?——也变成了我们所说的对称综合:知识之树植根于对称综合。因此,无论是一般语言概念的意义,还是(物理)定律或模型等科学结果的意义,都以广义对称性(CoIn)的形式表现出来。比特和字节同样可以在对称上下文中解释,即对称破缺。它们服务于决策领域(对称破坏),这是对识别(对称合成或硬币)的补充。因此,这两类信息内容都根植于对称的概念,但在某种意义上,它们根植于对称概念的两端。在一起,对称合成和对称断裂共同为世界的信息视角提供了DNA的构建块。事实上,这两个对称的视角指的是世界不可通约的方面,这意味着强大的人工智能(创造力、认知能力)不能仅仅通过图灵机来实现。原因是图灵的计算机概念只具有对称破缺的能力。第三部分第7.2节提出了对此的证明。为了便于对《通往新奇之路》第三、第四和第五部分中特定学科的材料的访问以及对结果的分析,我们将硬币方法与哲学和语言理论以及计算机科学/人工智能,最后是逻辑/数学中关于识别的讨论的思想史联系起来。除了已经提到的命题之外,该方法还为认知科学的每个子学科开辟了更深入的见解,扩展到神经科学和心理学的新方面。最后但并非最不重要的是,尽管经济学通常不被认为是认知科学的一部分,但这门学科在争论中扮演着特殊的角色。在经济学中发展的模型概念能够识别特定类型的理性,作为认知过程的基本特征,并将这种理性分配给与信息相关的经济原则。
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引用次数: 0
Η Ανατροπή της Νεοκλασικής Θεωρίας μέσω των Ιδίων της Μέσων (The Disproof of Neoclassical Theory by means of Its Own Means) 用自己的方法驳斥新古典理论
Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3747000
Dimitrios Nomidis
Greek abstract: Η μέχρι τώρα έρευνά μου που αποκαλύπτει θεμελιώδη λάθη της συμβατικής (νεοκλασικής) οικονομικής θεωρίας, βασίζεται κυρίως στη (λανθασμένη) αντίληψη της θεωρίας αυτής για το price taking και την οριζόντια καμπύλης ζήτησης της επιχείρησης, χρησιμοποιώντας αντ' αυτής την σωστή ατομική καμπύλη ζήτησης της επιχείρησης, που είναι κεκλιμένη και ίση με την συνολική ζήτηση διαιρεμένη δια του αριθμού των επιχειρήσεων για κάθε τιμή. Παρά τη μεγάλη αναγνωσιμότητα και το ζωηρό ακαδημαϊκό ενδιαφέρον που έχουν προκαλέσει τα σχετικά άρθρα μου, αντιλαμβάνομαι κάποιες δυσκολίες σχετικά με την αποδοχή της αναθεωρημένης θεωρίας και ίσως ακόμη και την κατανόησή της, λόγω φυσιολογικού εθισμού και προσκόλλησης στην παραδοσιακή θεωρία και τη μεθοδολογία της. Αυτό το άρθρο, ωστόσο, καταδεικνύει τα λάθη αυτά της συμβατικής θεωρίας χρησιμοποιώντας τη μεθοδολογία της ίδιας της συμβατικής θεωρίας, χωρίς να εμπλέκεται στο αμφιλεγόμενο ζήτημα της οριζόντιας ή κεκλιμένης καμπύλης ζήτησης της επιχείρησης.

English abstract: My research so far, which reveals fundamental mistakes of the conventional (neoclassical) economic theory, is based mainly on the (wrong) perception of this theory for the price taking and the horizontal demand curve for the firm, using instead the correct individual demand curve for the firm, which is sloping and equal to the total demand divided by the number of firms for each price. Despite the great readability and vivid academic interest that my relevant papers have caused, I feel some difficulties regarding the acceptance of the revised theory and perhaps even its understanding, due to physiological addiction and adherence to traditional theory and methodology. This article, however, demonstrates these mistakes of conventional theory using the methodology of the conventional theory itself, without getting involved in the controversial issue of the horizontal or sloping demand curve for the firm.
希腊文摘要:我迄今为止的研究揭示了传统(新古典)经济理论的根本缺陷,主要是基于该理论(不正确的)价格取舍概念和水平的企业需求曲线,而采用了正确的单个企业需求曲线,该曲线是倾斜的,等于总需求除以每个价格的企业数量。尽管我的相关文章引起了读者的广泛关注和学术界的浓厚兴趣,但我认为,由于对传统理论及其方法的自然沉迷和依恋,人们在接受修订后的理论,甚至是理解它方面还存在一些困难。然而,这篇文章利用传统理论本身的方法论来论证传统理论的这些错误,而不涉及有争议的企业水平或倾斜需求曲线问题。英文摘要:迄今为止,我的研究揭示了传统(新古典)经济理论的根本性错误,主要是基于该理论对价格取舍和企业水平需求曲线的(错误)认识,而不是使用正确的企业个体需求曲线,即倾斜的、等于总需求除以每个价格的企业数量的曲线。尽管我的相关论文具有很强的可读性和生动的学术趣味性,但由于对传统理论和方法论的生理性沉迷和坚持,我感到对修订后的理论的接受甚至理解都存在一些困难。 然而,本文使用传统理论本身的方法论来证明传统理论的这些错误,而不涉及有争议的企业水平或倾斜需求曲线问题。
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引用次数: 0
On the Catastrophic Impact That the Many Myths Created by Joan Robinson Between 1936 and 1980 About J M Keynes and the General Theory Have Had on Macroeconomic History 琼·罗宾逊在1936年至1980年间编造的关于凯恩斯及其通论的诸多神话对宏观经济史的灾难性影响
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3739898
M. E. Brady
The many, many myths created by Joan Robinson about J M Keynes and the General Theory, starting in the early 1930’s, have become embedded in the history of macroeconomics.

These myths, such as the claim that Joan Robinson worked closely with Keynes on the writing of the General Theory, that R. Kahn developed, explained and taught Keynes the theory of the multiplier, that there was no IS-LM model in the General Theory, that J. Hicks originated and developed the IS-LM model in the April,1937 issue of Econometrica, that fundamental uncertainty, as opposed to the uncertainty related to Keynes’ Evidential Weight of the Argument concept from his A Treatise on Probability (1921) ,was the central foundation of the General Theory, that Kalecki had written a version of Keynes’s General Theory in 1933-1935 in Polish that covered Keynes’s Theory of Effective Demand, that Keynes had not taken the 20 minutes necessary to learn the theory of value, that there was no formal, mathematical, microeconomic foundations in the General Theory, that Keynes did not understand the purpose of the General Theory and had to have it explained to him, that the General Theory was written as a chain of literary statements without the use of mathematical analysis, that Keynes was a Marshallian who had destroyed all of his mathematical analysis in the General Theory before publishing it, etc., are all simply the silly, stupid, foolish unexamined assertions of a mathematically illiterate economist who, due to her extreme mathematical and statistical ignorance, could not pass a sixth grade grammar school introduction to elementary algebra.

An examination of a 2019 paper by G. Akerlof shows how deeply these myths of Joan Robinson have become entrenched in the history of macroeconomics. It is simply not possible for economics to be called scientific, much less a science, given the extent of this mythology, of which I have barely scratched the surface in my discussions about examples above. I can find no claim made about J M Keynes or the General Theory made by Joan Robinson in her lifetime that is not at least partially or completely false.
从20世纪30年代初开始,琼•罗宾逊(Joan Robinson)创造了许许多多关于凯恩斯和《通论》(General Theory)的神话,这些神话已经深深地嵌入了宏观经济学的历史。这些神话,比如琼·罗宾逊与凯恩斯密切合作撰写通论,卡恩发展、解释并教授凯恩斯乘数理论,通论中没有IS-LM模型,希克斯在1937年4月的《计量经济学》上创立并发展了IS-LM模型,基本的不确定性,与凯恩斯在《概率论》(1921)中提出的论证的证据权重概念的不确定性相反,这种不确定性是《通论》的核心基础,卡莱茨基在1933-1935年用波兰语写了一个版本的《通论》,涵盖了凯恩斯的有效需求理论,凯恩斯没有花20分钟必要的时间来学习价值理论,《通论》中没有正式的、数学的、微观经济的基础,凯恩斯不明白《通论》的目的,必须有人向他解释,《通论》是由一连串的文学陈述写成的,没有使用数学分析,凯恩斯是一个马歇尔主义者,在《通论》出版之前就把他在《通论》中的所有数学分析都毁了,等等,这些都是一个不懂数学的经济学家愚蠢、愚蠢、未经检验的断言,由于她对数学和统计的极度无知,她无法通过六年级文法学校的初级代数入门课程。对G.阿克洛夫(G. Akerlof) 2019年发表的一篇论文的研究表明,琼·罗宾逊的这些神话在宏观经济学史上是多么根深蒂固。考虑到这种神话的程度,经济学根本不可能被称为科学,更不用说一门科学了。在我对上述例子的讨论中,我几乎没有触及到这种神话的表面。在我看来,关于凯恩斯或琼•罗宾逊生前提出的《通论》的任何论断,至少部分或完全是错误的。
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