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ASEAN 2030: Challenges of Building a Mature Political and Security Community 东盟2030:构建成熟政治安全共同体的挑战
Pub Date : 2013-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2350586
Amitav Acharya
The paper examines ASEAN’s political and security challenges and prospects in the coming two decades. The challenges facing ASEAN could be classified into six broad categories: (1) the shifting balance of power in the Asia Pacific; (2) the persistence of intra-ASEAN territorial conflicts; (3) the territorial dispute in the South China Sea, (4) the programs of military modernizations undertaken by ASEAN states and the resulting prospects for an intra-ASEAN arms race, (5) uncertainty and strife caused by demands for domestic political change, and (6) the dangers posed by transnational (non-traditional) security threats. The conditions for ASEAN to build a mature political-security community are also discussed.
本文探讨了东盟在未来二十年面临的政治和安全挑战及前景。东盟面临的挑战可以分为六大类:(1)亚太地区力量平衡的转变;(2)东盟内部领土冲突的持续;(3)南中国海的领土争端;(4)东盟国家进行的军事现代化计划以及由此导致的东盟内部军备竞赛的前景;(5)国内政治变革需求引起的不确定性和冲突;(6)跨国(非传统)安全威胁构成的危险。并对东盟建立成熟的政治安全共同体的条件进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 18
An Evaluation of WTO Remedies for Currency Undervaluation WTO对货币低估救济的评价
Pub Date : 2013-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2312026
Grant Bishop
During the past decade of mounting global imbalances, many academics and policymakers have argued that the exchange rate of China's Renminbi – perceived by many as intentionally undervalued relative to the U.S. dollar – has contributed to China's substantial trade (and consequent current account) surpluses and the corresponding U.S. current account deficit. This paper provides an assessment of the legality of GATT/WTO trade remedies in counteracting persistent trade deficits induced by undervaluation. While motivated by the present flashpoint over Renminbi undervaluation, this paper considers the economics of undervaluation and trade generally, highlighting the risk that other countries might strategically adopt undervaluation in the future. If there are prospects for dynamic gains from undervaluation, countries may pursue self-interested undervaluation at the expense of long-run global financial stability absent an effective enforcement mechanism through the IMF and WTO to counteract such imbalances. This paper argues that the current GATT and IMF Articles of Agreement are adequate to fill the enforcement gap. These provide legal scope for the IMF to appropriately act to make an impartial first-stage assessment of whether intentional undervaluation was sustaining current account imbalances. Such a finding would then open an avenue for a second-stage complaint and remedy through the WTO dispute settlement process.
在过去的十年中,全球失衡不断加剧,许多学者和政策制定者认为,中国的人民币汇率——被许多人认为相对于美元被故意低估——导致了中国的巨额贸易(以及随之而来的经常账户)盈余和相应的美国经常账户赤字。本文对关贸总协定/世贸组织贸易救济措施在对抗币值低估引起的持续贸易逆差方面的合法性进行了评估。虽然受到当前人民币低估问题爆发点的推动,但本文从总体上考虑了人民币低估的经济学和贸易问题,强调了其他国家未来可能战略性地采取人民币低估的风险。如果有从低估中获得动态收益的前景,各国可能会追求自身利益的低估,而牺牲长期的全球金融稳定,而缺乏通过国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织来抵消这种失衡的有效执行机制。本文认为,现行的关贸总协定和国际货币基金组织协定条款足以填补执行空白。这些规定为国际货币基金组织提供了法律范围,使其能够采取适当行动,对蓄意低估是否导致经常账户失衡做出公正的第一阶段评估。这样的裁决将为通过世贸组织争端解决程序进行第二阶段申诉和补救开辟途径。
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引用次数: 0
Global Markets, Global Citizens, and Global Governance in the 21st Century 21世纪的全球市场、全球公民和全球治理
Pub Date : 2013-09-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2364171
N. Birdsall, C. Meyer, Alexis Sowa
The politics, rules, and institutions of cooperation among nations have not kept up with the demands from global citizens for changes in the global political order. Whether norms and policies can make the global politics of managing the global economy more effective, more legitimate, and more responsive to the needs of the bottom half of the world’s population, for whom life remains harsh, remains to be seen. There is some cause for optimism, however: citizens everywhere are becoming more aware of and active in seeking changes in the global norms and rules that could make the global system and the global economy fairer—in processes if not outcomes—and less environmentally harmful.
国家间合作的政治、规则和机构没有跟上全球公民对改变全球政治秩序的要求。规范和政策是否能使管理全球经济的全球政治更有效、更合法,并更能满足生活仍然艰苦的世界底层一半人口的需求,还有待观察。然而,还是有一些乐观的理由:世界各地的公民越来越意识到并积极寻求改变全球规范和规则,这将使全球体系和全球经济更加公平——如果不是结果的话——并减少对环境的危害。
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引用次数: 11
Coping with Mandated Public Participation: The Case of Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands 应对强制性公众参与:以荷兰实施欧盟水框架指令为例
Pub Date : 2013-07-18 DOI: 10.1080/15705854.2013.772722
J. van der Heijden, E. ten Heuvelhof
An important aspect of contemporary European policy-making is public participation. The European Commission increasingly mandates its Member States to involve the general public in policy-making through public participation. Public participation is generally considered to improve the legitimacy and democracy of the policy-making process and its outcomes. However, mandated public participation creates severe difficulties for Member States whose policy-making process may be characterized as a (neo)corporatist system of interest representation. This paper presents the case of the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands, aiming to highlight these difficulties, to provide an example of how a Member State may cope with forced public participation in a (neo)corporatist environment, and to question whether and, if so, how mandated public participation actually results in a more democratic and legitimate policy-making process.
当代欧洲政策制定的一个重要方面是公众参与。欧洲委员会越来越多地授权其成员国通过公众参与让公众参与决策。公众参与通常被认为可以提高决策过程及其结果的合法性和民主性。然而,强制性的公众参与给会员国造成了严重的困难,这些会员国的决策过程可能被描述为一种利益代表的(新)社团主义制度。本文介绍了欧盟水框架指令在荷兰实施的案例,旨在突出这些困难,提供一个成员国如何在(新)社团主义环境中应对强制公众参与的例子,并质疑强制公众参与是否以及如果是这样,如何实际上导致更民主和合法的决策过程。
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引用次数: 7
Preferences for International Redistribution: The Divide Over the Eurozone Bailouts 国际再分配的偏好:对欧元区救助的分歧
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2032147
Michael M. Bechtel, Jens Hainmueller, Yotam Margalit
Why do voters agree to bear the costs of bailing out other countries? Despite the prominence of public opinion in the ongoing debate over the eurozone bailouts, voters' preferences on the topic are poorly understood. We conduct the first systematic analysis of this issue using observational and experimental survey data from Germany, the country shouldering the largest share of the EU's financial rescue fund. Testing a range of theoretical explanations, we find that individuals' own economic standing has limited explanatory power in accounting for their position on the bailouts. In contrast, social dispositions such as altruism and cosmopolitanism robustly correlate with support for the bailouts. The results indicate that the divide in public opinion over the bailouts is not drawn along distributive lines separating domestic winners and losers. Instead, the bailout debate is better understood as a foreign policy issue that pits economic nationalist sentiments versus greater cosmopolitan affinity and other-regarding concerns.
为什么选民同意承担救助其他国家的成本?尽管公众舆论在正在进行的有关欧元区纾困的辩论中占据突出地位,但选民对这一话题的偏好却知之甚少。我们利用来自德国的观察性和实验性调查数据对这一问题进行了首次系统分析,德国承担了欧盟金融救助基金的最大份额。通过对一系列理论解释的检验,我们发现个人自身的经济地位在解释他们对救助的立场方面具有有限的解释力。相比之下,利他主义和世界主义等社会倾向与支持纾困密切相关。调查结果表明,公众对救助计划的意见分歧并没有沿着国内赢家和输家的分配线划分。相反,救市辩论最好被理解为一个外交政策问题,是经济民族主义情绪与更大的世界主义亲和力和其他方面的担忧之间的较量。
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引用次数: 287
Implementing Basel Framework's Transparency Requirements in Emerging Countries: Bane or Boon? 在新兴国家实施巴塞尔框架的透明度要求:是祸还是福?
Pub Date : 2013-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2381867
Etienne Farvaque, Catherine Refait-Alexandre
Transparency requirements are central to the third pillar of the Basel prescriptions. The purpose of this article is to offer a simple theoretical model to analyze the impact of regulatory requirements for transparency on the balance sheet and profits of banks, focusing on the implementation of Basel’s requirements in emerging countries. We show how an increased transparency, which implies a rise in associated costs, especially operating costs, may result in lower profits for banks despite a reduced capital requirement. We also show the conditions under which these reduced profits occur, and in this respect what the consequences of the strengthened capital requirements introduced by Basel, in its third incarnation, are likely to be. We finally show that implementing Basel framework can have ambiguous effects in emerging countries, depending on parameters’ values.
透明度要求是巴塞尔协议第三大支柱的核心。本文的目的是提供一个简单的理论模型来分析透明度监管要求对银行资产负债表和利润的影响,重点关注巴塞尔要求在新兴国家的实施情况。我们展示了透明度的提高,这意味着相关成本的上升,特别是运营成本,可能导致银行的利润下降,尽管资本要求降低了。我们还展示了这些利润减少发生的条件,在这方面,巴塞尔第三次引入的加强资本要求的后果可能是什么。我们最后表明,根据参数值的不同,在新兴国家实施巴塞尔框架可能会产生模棱两可的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Does the Lisbon Treaty Effectively Limit the Power of the European Union? 《里斯本条约》是否有效限制了欧盟的权力?
Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12019
Émilie Ciclet
Although the Lisbon Treaty recognises the necessity to limit the power of the European Union, some of its limitations are poorly expressed. As a result, the European Commission has the possibility to act arbitrarily by expanding Union power. The position of the Commission is pre‐eminent, notably with respect to the drafting of EU measures. Not only can the Commission expand Union power, but it may also favour certain actors at the expense of the principals (Member States and their citizens). Indeed, the Commission may apply definitions of the ‘common European interest’ that go beyond the preferences of the principals.
尽管《里斯本条约》承认有必要限制欧盟的权力,但它的一些限制却没有得到很好的表达。其结果是,欧盟委员会有可能通过扩大欧盟权力而任意行事。欧盟委员会的立场是突出的,特别是在起草欧盟措施方面。欧盟委员会不仅可以扩大联盟的权力,而且还可能以牺牲主体(成员国及其公民)的利益来偏袒某些行为体。事实上,欧盟委员会对“欧洲共同利益”的定义可能会超越主要成员国的偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Which Devil in Development? A Randomized Study of Citizen Actions Supporting Foreign Aid in Uganda 哪个是发展中的魔鬼?乌干达支持外援的公民行动的随机研究
Pub Date : 2013-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2134409
H. Milner, D. Nielson, Michael G. Findley
Debate over the effectiveness of foreign aid has raged on despite a paucity of information about recipients’ actual views of development assistance, especially as citizens compare aid to domestic government programs. We argue that citizens may see foreign aid as an escape from clientelism because aid is less politicized than government programs, citizens trust donors more, and they support aid conditionality. They may also favor multilateral donors over bilateral donors for similar reasons. We test the argument with a randomized experiment on a subject pool of roughly 3,600 Ugandan citizens – to our knowledge the first nationally representative, large-n study of aid recipients. We randomly assigned the project funders – multilateral banks, bilateral donors, and a control implying the domestic government – for actual co-financed “pipeline” projects and invited citizens to sign a petition and send a text message in support. We find that citizens are significantly more willing to sign a petition or send a text message in favor of foreign aid projects compared to government programs. A companion survey to the experiment reveals evidence that citizens perceive aid as less prone to politicization. Some evidence suggests that Ugandans also see multilateral donors as superior to bilaterals. The findings suggest that recipients view foreign aid as relatively effective compared to domestic government programs.
尽管缺乏有关受援国对发展援助的实际看法的信息,特别是在公民将援助与国内政府项目进行比较的情况下,关于外援有效性的争论仍在激烈进行。我们认为,公民可能将外国援助视为摆脱裙带关系的一种方式,因为援助比政府项目政治化程度低,公民更信任捐助者,并且他们支持援助的条件限制。出于类似的原因,他们也可能倾向于多边捐助者而不是双边捐助者。我们对大约3600名乌干达公民进行了随机实验,以检验这一论点——据我们所知,这是第一次对受援者进行具有全国代表性的大规模研究。我们随机分配了项目的资助者——多边银行、双边捐助者和暗含国内政府的控制组——用于实际联合资助的“管道”项目,并邀请公民签署请愿书并发送短信表示支持。我们发现,与政府项目相比,公民更愿意签署请愿书或发短信支持外国援助项目。该实验的一项配套调查显示,有证据表明,公民认为援助不太容易政治化。一些证据表明,乌干达人也认为多边捐助者优于双边捐助者。研究结果表明,与国内政府项目相比,受援国认为外国援助相对有效。
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引用次数: 16
European Regional Disparities: The Crucial Source of European Un-Sustainability 欧洲地区差异:欧洲不可持续性的关键根源
Pub Date : 2013-04-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2248618
Matjaž Nahtigal
The ongoing European crisis has revealed many deficiencies in the existing European institutional architecture. One of the crucial deficiencies is the unsustainable European regional disparity between the most developed European regions and those regions that are falling behind — a gap that is growing. This pattern of development creates an unsustainable pattern for the future development of the EU. The gap between the advanced segments of society with access to up-to-date knowledge, skills, technology, capital, and other resources and the excluded segments of society is also growing within the advanced European regions. Such observations indicate the need for far stronger anti-dualist economic, social, and legal policy at all levels of European polity. The EU’s response to the crisis has been inadequate as it has ignored the diversity of needs as well as opportunities for local and regional populations across the EU. Instead of focusing the economic, social, and legal reconstruction on a “one size fits all” model imposed from the top, the EU should spur local and regional innovations, initiatives, and development dynamics from below. Thus, in the EU, we need more policy space as well as more opportunities for economic, legal, social, and political innovations at the local, regional, and national levels. We need to create an EU that supports — not suppresses — diversity, sustainability, plurality, and the co-existence of institutional models. The idea of subsidiarity, diversity, and initiatives from below should be revived in order to create a more sustainable future for the EU.
当前的欧洲危机暴露了欧洲现有制度架构的许多缺陷。一个关键的缺陷是欧洲最发达地区和落后地区之间不可持续的区域差距,这种差距正在扩大。这种发展模式对欧盟未来的发展是不可持续的。在欧洲发达地区,能够获得最新知识、技能、技术、资本和其他资源的社会先进阶层与被排除在外的社会阶层之间的差距也在扩大。这些观察结果表明,需要在欧洲政治的各个层面制定更强有力的反二元论的经济、社会和法律政策。欧盟对危机的反应是不充分的,因为它忽视了欧盟各地当地和地区人口的需求和机会的多样性。欧盟不应该把经济、社会和法律重建的重点放在自上而下的“一刀切”模式上,而应该自下而上地刺激地方和区域的创新、倡议和发展动力。因此,在欧盟,我们需要更多的政策空间,以及在地方、区域和国家层面进行经济、法律、社会和政治创新的更多机会。我们需要创建一个支持——而不是压制——多样性、可持续性、多元性以及各种制度模式共存的欧盟。为了为欧盟创造一个更可持续的未来,应该恢复辅助性、多样性和自下而上的倡议。
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引用次数: 10
The Non-Ratification of Bilateral Investment Treaties in Brazil: A Story of Conflict in a Land of Cooperation 巴西双边投资条约未获批准:合作土地上的冲突故事
Pub Date : 2013-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2243120
Leany Barreiro Lemos, Daniela Campello
This article examines Brazil's unique experience with bilateral investment treaties (BITs) – the country signed fourteen of them in the 90's, but none was ever enacted. The case is puzzling for a number of reasons; first, the Brazilian political system is notorious for its concentration of power in the executive branch, and BITs were an initiative of the executive. Moreover, the executive has been particularly successful at enacting international treaties in the country; 98 percent of those signed between 1988 and 2006 were ratified, half of them within eighteen months. Finally, the Brazilian Congress approved various investor-friendly policies that required even higher voting thresholds in the same period that BITs were being negotiated. We use primary legislative data and interviews with policymakers and bureaucrats to argue that concentrated but strong ideological opposition in Congress certainly contributed to the difficulties of BIT enactment, but an unresolved executive – which addressed most investor's demands through alternative channels – was the main factor in explaining non-ratification. Ultimately, our findings imply that the literature on BIT needs to open the black box of the executive in order to better understand the determinants of treaties' enactment.
本文考察了巴西在双边投资协定(BITs)方面的独特经验——该国在90年代签署了14个双边投资协定,但没有一个付诸实施。这个案件令人费解的原因有很多;首先,巴西的政治体制因权力集中在行政部门而臭名昭著,而双边投资协定是行政部门的一项倡议。此外,行政当局在该国颁布国际条约方面尤其成功;1988年至2006年间签署的条约中有98%得到了批准,其中一半在18个月内得到批准。最后,在双边投资协定谈判的同一时期,巴西国会批准了各种对投资者友好的政策,这些政策需要更高的投票门槛。我们使用主要的立法数据和对政策制定者和官僚的采访来论证,国会集中但强烈的意识形态反对肯定导致了BIT颁布的困难,但一个未解决的高管——通过其他渠道解决了大多数投资者的需求——是解释未批准的主要因素。最终,我们的研究结果表明,关于双边投资协定的文献需要打开行政部门的黑匣子,以便更好地理解条约制定的决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Institutions: International Institutions eJournal
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