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What Shall We Do with the Bad Dictator? 我们该如何对待这个坏独裁者?
Pub Date : 2014-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2381429
S. Larcom, M. Sarr, T. Willems
Recently, the international community has increased its commitment to prosecute malicious dictators by establishing the International Criminal Court, thereby raising its loss of being time-inconsistent (granting amnesties ex post). This deters dictators from committing atrocities. Simultaneously, however, such commitment selects dictators of a worse type. Moreover, when the dictator behaves so badly that the costs of keeping him in place are considered to be greater than those of being time-inconsistent, the international community will still grant amnesty. Consequently, increased commitment to ex post punishment may actually induce dictators to worsen their behaviour, purely to "unlock" the amnesty option and force the international community into time-inconsistency.
最近,国际社会通过设立国际刑事法院,加强了对恶意独裁者进行起诉的承诺,从而增加了时间不一致(事后大赦)的损失。这阻止了独裁者犯下暴行。然而,与此同时,这种承诺选择了一种更糟糕的独裁者。此外,当独裁者的行为如此恶劣,以至于维持他在位的成本被认为比时间不一致的成本更大时,国际社会仍然会给予大赦。因此,增加对事后惩罚的承诺实际上可能会诱使独裁者恶化他们的行为,纯粹是为了“打开”大赦选项,迫使国际社会在时间上不一致。
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引用次数: 5
Enhanced Cooperation in Governance 加强治国理政合作
Pub Date : 2014-01-09 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2376807
Samantha Dickinson, W. Dutton, M. Maciel, Desiree Miloshevic, Vladimir Radunovic
The concept of enhanced cooperation in Internet governance arose with the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society. In the years since the Tunis Agenda was written, “enhanced cooperation” has remained subject to differing interpretations. To assist with ongoing discussions on how to further implement enhanced cooperation in international public policy issues pertaining to the Internet, this paper presents an overview of the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) documents and provides of description of a selection of activities in the Internet governance space where governments work with other stakeholders on issues related to international public policy. The selection of activities described in this paper demonstrate that enhanced cooperation is a viable process for considering and arriving at policy in ways that are more likely to be viewed as legitimate by all stakeholders. The alternative — limiting participation to a subset of stakeholders — may result in less robust public policy that fails to be viewed as legitimate by those left out of the process.
在互联网治理方面加强合作的概念源于《突尼斯信息社会议程》。自《突尼斯议程》制定以来,“加强合作”一直有不同的解释。为了协助正在进行的关于如何进一步实施与互联网有关的国际公共政策问题的加强合作的讨论,本文概述了信息社会世界峰会(WSIS)的文件,并提供了对互联网治理空间中政府与其他利益相关者就国际公共政策相关问题进行合作的一系列活动的描述。本文所描述的活动选择表明,加强合作是一个可行的过程,可以以更有可能被所有利益相关者视为合法的方式考虑和制定政策。另一种选择——将参与限制在一小部分利益相关者——可能会导致公共政策不那么有力,而那些被排除在这一过程之外的人则无法将其视为合法。
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引用次数: 2
Is Europe Growing Together or Growing Apart? 欧洲是在共同发展还是在分化?
Pub Date : 2013-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2369826
Patrick M. Crowley, Enrique Garcia, Chee-Heong Quah
While it is painfully clear that the ’ever closer’ monetary and financial union in the EU has run into serious trouble there has been very little study of the degree to which the countries have become similar or different in their economic growth dynamics. This paper therefore goes beyond the traditional convergence literature to look at their dynamic convergence and explore the path of their changing similarity in the frequency domain. The results show that while a core group of countries may be developing together, there appears to be at least seven identifiable groups of countries with different growth dynamics. Greece appears to be in a class on its own. Business cycles are important but longer-term trends and higher frequency fluctuations all have a role to play in facilitating adjustment. These results provide awkward implications for policy, particularly for those who thought that simply having a union would draw countries closer together (endogenous OCA criteria).
虽然欧盟“日益紧密”的货币和金融联盟显然遇到了严重的麻烦,但很少有人研究这些国家在经济增长动力方面变得相似或不同的程度。因此,本文超越传统的收敛性文献,着眼于它们的动态收敛性,探索它们在频域上相似度变化的路径。结果表明,虽然一个核心国家集团可能正在共同发展,但似乎至少有七个可识别的国家集团具有不同的增长动力。希腊似乎独树一帜。商业周期很重要,但长期趋势和较高频率的波动都可在促进调整方面发挥作用。这些结果为政策提供了令人尴尬的暗示,特别是对那些认为仅仅建立一个联盟就能使各国更紧密地联系在一起的人(内生的亚经合组织标准)。
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引用次数: 6
Strategic Investments with Competition Under Uncertainty in the ASEAN/AEC: A Game-Theoretic Real Options Analysis 东盟/东盟经济共同体不确定竞争下的战略投资:一个博弈论的实物期权分析
Pub Date : 2013-12-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2373812
C. Los, Klangjai Sangwichitr
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) intends to create the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) as a single market, to be completed by 2020. The single market will boost the competition in both ASEAN’s internal and external markets, which will spur innovation. Creative innovation will change the production technology to generate enhanced value products and services. Generating this new technology requires R&D investment. This paper discusses the strategic investment decisions which businesses in ASEAN will have to face in a highly competitive environment under uncertain growth conditions, by systematically outlaying several plausible strategic investment outcomes. The game-theoretic real options approach is used to analyze the strategic timing and interplay of strategic investments between Thai and Malaysian consumer firms. In particular, it is used to analyze the valuation of the firms’ strategic investment payoffs.
东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)打算创建东盟经济共同体(AEC),作为一个单一市场,将于2020年完成。单一市场将促进东盟内部和外部市场的竞争,这将刺激创新。创造性创新将改变生产技术,以产生更高价值的产品和服务。产生这种新技术需要研发投资。本文通过系统地列出几个合理的战略投资结果,讨论了东盟企业在不确定增长条件下的高度竞争环境中必须面对的战略投资决策。运用博弈论的实物期权方法分析了泰国和马来西亚消费企业战略投资的战略时机和相互作用。特别地,它被用来分析公司战略投资收益的估值。
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引用次数: 0
Зарубежный Опыт Реализации Региональной Политики На Примере Испании (Foreign Experience of Regional Policy on the Example of Spain) ЗарубежныйОпытРеализацииРегиональнойПолитикиНаПримереИспании(外国经验的地区政策在西班牙的例子)
Pub Date : 2013-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2360772
Alla Sorokina
В данной работе представлен краткий обзор теоретических аспектов проведения региональной политики, а также более подробно исследуются практические аспекты ее реализации в Испании. Для России актуальным и интересным может оказаться опыт проведения региональной политики в данной стране. Обе страны имеют много общего в проблемах развития территорий, в то время как способы их решения различны. Автор выражает благодарность Вахштайну В.С., Володиной И.А., Карповой О.В., Поливановой К.Н за предоставленные материалы и ценные комментарии.This article provides a brief description of theoretical aspects of regional policy and in more detail investigates practical aspects of its implementation in Spanish economy. Its experience could be interesting and actual for Russian researches as both countries have many common problems in development of its territories while ways of their solving are quite different.
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引用次数: 0
G20 St. Petersburg Summit Outcomes and Future Tasks 二十国集团领导人圣彼得堡峰会成果和未来任务
Pub Date : 2013-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2360995
D. Yoon, Su Bin Kim
The 8th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in St. Petersburg, Russia on September 5-6, 2013. At this year's summit, along with the member countries, 6 invitees (Spain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Senegal, Singapore) and heads of 7 international organizations (UN, World Bank, IMF, FSB, OECD, WTO, ILO) were invited to participate in the premier forum. According to its troika system, Mexico (2012 chair), Russia (2013 chair), and Australia (2014 chair) have worked closely to draw up the agendas and produced the leader's declaration for this year's summit. Substantial improvements have been made within the summit structure; the 'Financial Track' has been delegated to deal with the financial and fiscal challenges that grew with expanding agendas, which were becoming a burden for Sherpas. For the main agendas, the forum proposed the action plan (for each country) and will be monitoring each agenda via the accountability report. A detailed joint reports have been drafted by experts and working groups to settle the concern of summit being left as a mere 'talk shop'. The main achievements entail the coop-eration between G20 countries for job creation, fiscal consolidation, and tax justice. G20 Leaders stress the importance of bolstering G20's functions with the aim of creating strong, inclusive growth and jobs, as well as securing the sustainability of public finances. The G20 St. Petersburg Summit was held in the midst of a gloomy world economic climate; where ameliorating the unemployment, especially youth unemployment, sat as the universal priority. Acknowledging this; the chair country, Russia, emphasized on; 'growth and job creation', and put together the Leader's Declaration, composed of 114 sections, and 11 annex documents with detailed contents of agreement for each agenda. To commemorate the 5th anniversary of the G20 Leaders' Summit, 'G20 5th Anniversary Vision Statement' was also announced. During which, leaders concurred that the collaborate work of G20 members was vital in recovering the world economy from the financial crisis in 2008. The statement also highlights the importance of inclusive growth, orderly global economy, market openness, and other factors which contributed to strong, sustainable, and balanced growth.
二十国集团领导人第八次峰会于2013年9月5日至6日在俄罗斯圣彼得堡举行。在今年的峰会上,6个受邀国(西班牙、文莱、哈萨克斯坦、埃塞俄比亚、塞内加尔、新加坡)和7个国际组织(联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织、金融稳定理事会、经合组织、世界贸易组织、国际劳工组织)的负责人与成员国一起受邀参加了这一重要论坛。墨西哥(2012年轮值主席国)、俄罗斯(2013年轮值主席国)和澳大利亚(2014年轮值主席国)按照“三驾马车”体系,密切合作制定了今年峰会的议程和领导人宣言。峰会结构有了实质性改进;“金融轨道”已被授权处理随着议程扩大而增加的金融和财政挑战,这些挑战已成为夏尔巴人的负担。对于主要议程,论坛提出了行动计划(针对每个国家),并将通过问责制报告监测每个议程。专家和工作组已经起草了一份详细的联合报告,以解决人们对峰会仅仅成为“清谈俱乐部”的担忧。主要成就包括G20国家在创造就业、财政整顿和税收公正方面的合作。二十国集团领导人强调加强二十国集团职能的重要性,以创造强劲、包容性增长和就业,并确保公共财政的可持续性。二十国集团领导人圣彼得堡峰会是在世界经济形势低迷的背景下举行的;改善失业问题,特别是青年失业问题,是普遍的优先事项。承认这一点;主席国俄罗斯强调;“增长和创造就业”,并制定了由114个部分组成的领导人宣言和11个附件文件,其中详细说明了每个议程的协议内容。为纪念二十国集团领导人峰会召开五周年,会议还发表了《二十国集团领导人峰会五周年愿景声明》。会议期间,领导人一致认为,二十国集团成员的合作对从2008年金融危机中复苏世界经济至关重要。声明还强调了包容性增长、有序的全球经济、市场开放以及其他有助于强劲、可持续和平衡增长的因素的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury 迷失在海上:欧元需要一个欧元财政部
Pub Date : 2013-11-21 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2358070
Joerg Bibow
The euro crisis remains unresolved even as financial markets may seem calm for now. The current euro regime is inherently flawed. Recent reforms have failed to turn the dysfunctional euro regime into a viable one. The investigation is informed by the "cartalist" critique of traditional "optimum currency area" theory (Goodhart 1998). Various proposals to rescue the euro are assessed and found lacking. A Euro Treasury scheme operating on a strict rule and specifically designed not to be a transfer union is proposed here as condition sine qua non for healing the euro's potentially fatal birth defects. The Euro Treasury proposed here is the missing element that will mend the current fiscal regime that is unworkable without it. The proposed Euro Treasury scheme would end the currently unfolding euro calamity by switching policy from a public thrift campaign that can only impoverish Europe to a public investment campaign designed to secure Europe's future. No mutualization of existing national public debts is involved. Instead, the Euro Treasury is established as a means to pool eurozone public investment spending and have it funded by proper eurozone treasury securities.
尽管金融市场目前看似平静,但欧元危机仍未解决。当前的欧元体制本身就存在缺陷。最近的改革未能将功能失调的欧元体制转变为一个可行的体制。这项调查的依据是对传统“最优货币区”理论的“卡特尔主义”批判(Goodhart 1998)。对拯救欧元的各种提议进行了评估,发现都存在不足。这里提出了一个按照严格规则运作的欧元财政部计划,该计划的设计初衷不是成为一个转移支付联盟,这是治愈欧元潜在致命先天缺陷的必要条件。欧元财政部在此提出的提议是弥补当前财政体制缺失的部分,而没有它,当前的财政体制将无法运转。拟议中的欧元国债计划将结束目前正在上演的欧元灾难,将政策从只会让欧洲变得贫穷的公共节俭运动,转变为旨在保障欧洲未来的公共投资运动。不涉及现有国家公共债务的共同化。相反,建立欧元财政部是为了汇集欧元区公共投资支出,并由适当的欧元区国债为其提供资金。
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引用次数: 31
Singapore Sling: How Coercion May Cure the Hangover in Financial Benchmark Governance 新加坡Sling:强制如何治愈金融基准治理的后遗症
Pub Date : 2013-11-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2350445
J. O'Brien
The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has formalized a set of principles designed to restore confidence in a range of systemically important financial benchmarks. The alacrity with which IOSCO has moved and its endorsement by the G20 is notable. It is far from clear, however, whether the principles provide a basis for sustainable reform. This derives from diametrically conflicting views within IOSCO as to whether benchmarks based on hypothetical submissions can be reformed or must be replaced by systems anchored in observed transactions. As a consequence the principles paper over rather than resolve core ethical deficiencies exposed in a still metastasizing scandal. The paper examines how and why the IOSCO process has privileged symbolism over substance. It then evaluates an alternative approach. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has developed an innovative solution whereby contributing banks to the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor) are mandated to privilege the integrity of the benchmark over individual institutional reputational or litigation risk. This regulatory re-engineering of risk management integrates rules, principles and social norms to forge restraint. The paper concludes that this holistic approach, once calibrated to the specific political, economic and cultural dimensions of specific markets, is more likely to embed ethical decision-making, reduce the risk of institutional corruption and achieve socially beneficial outcomes.
国际证券监督管理委员会组织(IOSCO)已正式制定了一套原则,旨在恢复对一系列具有系统重要性的金融基准的信心。值得注意的是,国际证监会组织行动迅速,并得到了G20的认可。然而,尚不清楚这些原则是否为可持续改革提供了基础。这源于国际证监会组织内部关于基于假设提交的基准是否可以改革或必须由以观察到的交易为基础的系统所取代的截然相反的观点。结果,这些原则只是纸上添花,而没有解决在一桩仍在蔓延的丑闻中暴露出来的核心道德缺陷。本文探讨了IOSCO过程如何以及为什么具有优先于实质的象征意义。然后评估另一种方法。新加坡金融管理局(MAS)开发了一种创新的解决方案,授权为新加坡银行间同业拆借利率(Sibor)提供服务的银行优先考虑基准的完整性,而不是个人机构的声誉或诉讼风险。这种风险管理的监管重组整合了规则、原则和社会规范,以形成约束。本文的结论是,这种整体方法,一旦针对特定市场的特定政治、经济和文化维度进行校准,就更有可能嵌入道德决策,降低制度腐败的风险,并实现对社会有益的结果。
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引用次数: 3
The (In)Compatibility of Direct Selling Trade Barriers with EU Law: Before and After the Consumer Rights Directive 直销贸易壁垒与欧盟法律的兼容性:消费者权益指令前后
Pub Date : 2013-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2347507
Orsolya Tokaji-Nagy
The direct selling retail channel is often abused by rogue trades which triggers Draconian responses from national legislators. As a result, the direct selling industry in the EU is restricted by a number divergent trade barriers. At the chore of the problem lies the conflict of interest between the liberalization of trade in respect of the direct selling industry and Member States' freedom to impose stringent regulations in order to favor consumers’ economic interests.The current paper assesses direct selling trade barriers' compatibility with European law, and in particular, the fundamental freedoms of the internal market and the relevant secondary law regulating consumer protection, fair trading law and the provision of services.Through the comparative analysis of the CJEU's jurisprudence concerning four direct selling trade barriers, it was found that the unworkable rigidity of the Keck formula has significantly hampered the Court's efforts to give clear rulings on the assessed cases, although curiously, in none of the four cases did the Court pronounce that direct selling trade barriers were in compliance with the free movement of goods principle.The Consumer Rights Directive is expected to bring about much needed clarity and legal certainty in respect to direct selling trade barriers. Complemented by the assessment of relevant provisions of the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive and the Services Directive, it was concluded that as of the entry into force of the Consumer Rights Directive, the introduction or maintenance of direct selling trade barriers will no longer be legitimate under European law.
直销零售渠道经常被流氓交易滥用,引发国家立法机构的严厉回应。因此,欧盟的直销行业受到许多不同贸易壁垒的限制。问题的症结在于直销行业的贸易自由化与会员国为有利于消费者的经济利益而实行严格管制的自由之间的利益冲突。本文评估了直销贸易壁垒与欧洲法律的兼容性,特别是内部市场的基本自由和相关的二级法律,包括消费者保护、公平交易法和服务提供。通过对欧洲法院关于四个直销贸易壁垒的判例进行比较分析,我们发现,凯克公式的不可行的刚性极大地阻碍了法院对所评估案件作出明确裁决的努力,尽管奇怪的是,在这四个案件中,法院都没有宣布直销贸易壁垒符合货物自由流动原则。消费者权利指令预计将带来直销贸易壁垒方面急需的清晰度和法律确定性。通过对《不公平商业惯例指令》和《服务指令》相关条款的评估,得出的结论是,自《消费者权利指令》生效以来,根据欧洲法律,引入或维持直销贸易壁垒将不再合法。
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引用次数: 0
Which Commercial Partners are Important for the Most Recently Admitted EU Countries? 哪些商业伙伴对新加入的欧盟国家来说是重要的?
Pub Date : 2013-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2342101
Alicia Gómez‐Tello
This article aims to detect the degree of trade integration since the fifth EU enlargement in 2004 between the EU15 and the 10 new EU members (EU10). We develop a theoretical framework whose principal building blocks derive from Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). Our empirical analysis implements data of trade flows between EU10 countries and 180 partners from 1999 to 2011. Using the difference-in-differences strategy, we estimate a gravity equation that controls for unobservable heterogeneous characteristics. Our results show that though trade exchanges between the EU10 and EU15 intensified after 2004, the impact of integration has been much more significant to the EU10.
本文旨在检测自2004年欧盟第五次扩大以来,欧盟15国与10个新欧盟成员国(EU10)之间的贸易一体化程度。我们开发了一个理论框架,其主要构建模块来自安德森和范温库普(2003)。我们的实证分析采用了1999年至2011年欧盟10国与180个伙伴国之间的贸易流量数据。使用差中差策略,我们估计了一个控制不可观察异质性特征的重力方程。研究结果表明,尽管欧盟10国与欧盟15国之间的贸易往来在2004年后有所加强,但一体化对欧盟10国的影响要显著得多。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Institutions: International Institutions eJournal
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