Pub Date : 2021-08-31DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i0.539
A. Rossignolo
The paper intends to measure the effect of Basel IV’s revamped Standardised Approach (SA) as a credible fallback to the Internal Models Approach. Using equity portfolios in the UK and US, the analysis reveals somewhat high Minimum Capital Requirements (MCR), conferring these figures an extra conservative nature. This, In turn, would generate disincentives to develop precise Internal Models stifling financial innovation, which could be remedied introducing slight changes in SA’s specification. A simulation analysis shows that, varying the fixed components of the formula alongside the introduction of calibration parameters, the output floor could be tailored to suit the needs of the local regulators using a stressed yardstick like the Loss Coverage Ratio, although every precaution must be taken in this regard. The present study ranks amongst the first to quantify the level of the output floor outside the BCBS and evaluate it against a crisis of considerable magnitude, finding that the current configuration delivers relatively excessive MCRs and, furthermore, providing alternative solutions that could enable the constitution of adequate –albeit not disproportionate- capital coverage.
{"title":"The New Standardised Approach as a Credible Fallback","authors":"A. Rossignolo","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i0.539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i0.539","url":null,"abstract":"The paper intends to measure the effect of Basel IV’s revamped Standardised Approach (SA) as a credible fallback to the Internal Models Approach. Using equity portfolios in the UK and US, the analysis reveals somewhat high Minimum Capital Requirements (MCR), conferring these figures an extra conservative nature. This, In turn, would generate disincentives to develop precise Internal Models stifling financial innovation, which could be remedied introducing slight changes in SA’s specification. A simulation analysis shows that, varying the fixed components of the formula alongside the introduction of calibration parameters, the output floor could be tailored to suit the needs of the local regulators using a stressed yardstick like the Loss Coverage Ratio, although every precaution must be taken in this regard. The present study ranks amongst the first to quantify the level of the output floor outside the BCBS and evaluate it against a crisis of considerable magnitude, finding that the current configuration delivers relatively excessive MCRs and, furthermore, providing alternative solutions that could enable the constitution of adequate –albeit not disproportionate- capital coverage.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114330848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-07DOI: 10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.634
Cinthya G. Caamal-Olvera, Julio César Arteaga García
This paper analyzes the initial stage of the pandemic COVID-19 in Mexico. The objective is to test whether the contagion risk perception and the authorities' initial prevention messages influenced the COVID-19 deaths. We estimate longitudinal elasticities of deaths to confirmed COVID-19 cases by accounting for measurement error and endogeneity issues. We find that confirmed cases and poverty levels are endogenous. The limitation arises because of the underreported COVID-19 deaths. Our contribution is to identify an association with the individual and political risk perception to the number of COVID-19 deaths. The results show that municipalities with more confirmed cases aware of being in contact with another person affected by COVID-19 have fewer deaths. However, emergency management, federal and state, had weak effects of reducing the lethality rate. We infer that better individual risk awareness is an essential factor in reducing the number of deaths from COVID-19.
{"title":"Initial Management of COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico","authors":"Cinthya G. Caamal-Olvera, Julio César Arteaga García","doi":"10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.634","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the initial stage of the pandemic COVID-19 in Mexico. The objective is to test whether the contagion risk perception and the authorities' initial prevention messages influenced the COVID-19 deaths. We estimate longitudinal elasticities of deaths to confirmed COVID-19 cases by accounting for measurement error and endogeneity issues. We find that confirmed cases and poverty levels are endogenous. The limitation arises because of the underreported COVID-19 deaths. Our contribution is to identify an association with the individual and political risk perception to the number of COVID-19 deaths. The results show that municipalities with more confirmed cases aware of being in contact with another person affected by COVID-19 have fewer deaths. However, emergency management, federal and state, had weak effects of reducing the lethality rate. We infer that better individual risk awareness is an essential factor in reducing the number of deaths from COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121987583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-07DOI: 10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.645
M. Mendoza-González, Alberto Villagra-Piña
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto que han tenido la Covid-19 y la restricción de movilidad de las personas en el consumo de cigarrillos en México. La metodología son modelos de cointegración fmols con endogeneidad y cambio estructural para identificar comportamientos miopes o racionales de acuerdo con la Teoría de Adicción Racional. Los resultados muestran que los precios y eventos estresantes son el principal determinante del consumo de cigarros. Se recomienda incidir significativamente sobre los precios del tabaco. Las implicaciones son que el distanciamiento social y la restricción a la movilidad de las personas han incrementado el consumo de cigarros, el alcance limita la inclusión de otros factores como la pérdida del empleo. La originalidad del artículo radica en que en estudios previos no se han considerado eventos estresantes como la Covid-19. La principal conclusión es que el aumento de precios relativos de cigarros previo a las condiciones de pandemia y el choque de ingreso son la principal causa de la reducción de las ventas de cajetillas de cigarros durante la crisis sanitaria y económica de 2020.
{"title":"Efectos de la Covid-19 y la restricción a la movilidad de las personas sobre el consumo adictivo de cigarros en México, 2005-2020","authors":"M. Mendoza-González, Alberto Villagra-Piña","doi":"10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.645","url":null,"abstract":"El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto que han tenido la Covid-19 y la restricción de movilidad de las personas en el consumo de cigarrillos en México. La metodología son modelos de cointegración fmols con endogeneidad y cambio estructural para identificar comportamientos miopes o racionales de acuerdo con la Teoría de Adicción Racional. Los resultados muestran que los precios y eventos estresantes son el principal determinante del consumo de cigarros. Se recomienda incidir significativamente sobre los precios del tabaco. Las implicaciones son que el distanciamiento social y la restricción a la movilidad de las personas han incrementado el consumo de cigarros, el alcance limita la inclusión de otros factores como la pérdida del empleo. La originalidad del artículo radica en que en estudios previos no se han considerado eventos estresantes como la Covid-19. La principal conclusión es que el aumento de precios relativos de cigarros previo a las condiciones de pandemia y el choque de ingreso son la principal causa de la reducción de las ventas de cajetillas de cigarros durante la crisis sanitaria y económica de 2020.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"623 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120846655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-02DOI: 10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.652
D. Benavides, César Gurrola Ríos, F. Herrera
Este artículo muestra el análisis efectuado para comparar la estructura de dependencia de la caída de los rendimientos accionarios de los mercados de los tres países más grandes de América Latina (Argentina, Brasil y México) en los rendimientos del mercado de valores estadounidense. Se compara la caída propiciada por el surgimiento de la pandemia de Covid-19 con otros episodios de crisis financieras acaecidas a partir de la última década del siglo XX. Mediante cópulas bivariadas de Clayton con regímenes conducidos por cambios markovianos, se estudia el grado de la dependencia en la cola inferior de la distribución, encontrando patrones distintos de dependencia que sugieren que los mercados de Brasil y México son más dependientes que el argentino. Una limitante es que no termina aún la recuperación económica derivada de la pandemia, por lo que los resultados en relación con los efectos de la Covid-19 podrían considerarse sólo como provisionales, sin embargo, este artículo contribuye a entender cómo ha sido el proceso de globalización y las posibles consecuencias para la internacionalización de los mercados bursátiles latinoamericanos y la inversión en la región, incluyendo la de portafolio.
{"title":"Dependencia de los mercados de valores de Argentina, Brasil y México respecto del estadounidense: Covid19 y otras crisis financieras recientes","authors":"D. Benavides, César Gurrola Ríos, F. Herrera","doi":"10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/REMEF.V16I3.652","url":null,"abstract":"Este artículo muestra el análisis efectuado para comparar la estructura de dependencia de la caída de los rendimientos accionarios de los mercados de los tres países más grandes de América Latina (Argentina, Brasil y México) en los rendimientos del mercado de valores estadounidense. Se compara la caída propiciada por el surgimiento de la pandemia de Covid-19 con otros episodios de crisis financieras acaecidas a partir de la última década del siglo XX. Mediante cópulas bivariadas de Clayton con regímenes conducidos por cambios markovianos, se estudia el grado de la dependencia en la cola inferior de la distribución, encontrando patrones distintos de dependencia que sugieren que los mercados de Brasil y México son más dependientes que el argentino. Una limitante es que no termina aún la recuperación económica derivada de la pandemia, por lo que los resultados en relación con los efectos de la Covid-19 podrían considerarse sólo como provisionales, sin embargo, este artículo contribuye a entender cómo ha sido el proceso de globalización y las posibles consecuencias para la internacionalización de los mercados bursátiles latinoamericanos y la inversión en la región, incluyendo la de portafolio.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117156826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.675
Ana Lorena Jiménez-Preciado, Nora Gavira-Durón
Objective: identify social mobility patterns in the world's most populated cities from the ravaging pandemic of COVID-19 and the confinement and social distancing measures. Method: ternary diagrams to examine the simultaneous movement to different places (grocery, services, parks, workplaces, residence, and transit). Specifically, we use crosshair ternary plots and a Gaussian Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for ternary density diagrams. Results: for the most part, the mobility reduction was between 40% and 60% in the selected cities. Nevertheless, there were more significant transit cases, but not workplaces or residences, suggesting that the informal market may absorb part of the labor work. Limitations and implications: the main limitation of this analysis is in scaling the data since the mobility statistics represent negative percentages. Main contribution: the work's principal contribution and originality lie in using ternary diagrams, allowing the identification of social mobility patterns in the largest cities and understanding how displacement of populations has changed since COVID-19.
{"title":"Social Mobility Patterns in the World's Populated Cities Through COVID-19","authors":"Ana Lorena Jiménez-Preciado, Nora Gavira-Durón","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i3.675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i3.675","url":null,"abstract":"Objective: identify social mobility patterns in the world's most populated cities from the ravaging pandemic of COVID-19 and the confinement and social distancing measures. Method: ternary diagrams to examine the simultaneous movement to different places (grocery, services, parks, workplaces, residence, and transit). Specifically, we use crosshair ternary plots and a Gaussian Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for ternary density diagrams. Results: for the most part, the mobility reduction was between 40% and 60% in the selected cities. Nevertheless, there were more significant transit cases, but not workplaces or residences, suggesting that the informal market may absorb part of the labor work. Limitations and implications: the main limitation of this analysis is in scaling the data since the mobility statistics represent negative percentages. Main contribution: the work's principal contribution and originality lie in using ternary diagrams, allowing the identification of social mobility patterns in the largest cities and understanding how displacement of populations has changed since COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132764238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.654
R. Mendoza-Rivera, F. Venegas-Martínez
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar el impacto de la pandemia COVID-19, medida a través del índice de fatalidad, en los precios de la gasolina y el gas natural en las principales economías en Latinoamérica: Brasil, México, Colombia, Perú, Chile y Uruguay. Estas economías no sólo son las más grandes de la región, sino también las más afectadas por la pandemia de COVID-19. Asimismo, estos países han mostrado, en las últimas décadas, una demanda ascendente de gasolina y gas natural. Esta investigación utiliza diversos modelos de datos panel con datos semanales (febrero 2020–febrero 2021). Los modelos de datos panel de efectos aleatorios a dos vías sugieren evidencia empírica de que las tasas de crecimiento de los índices de fatalidad, para todos los países en la muestra, tienen efectos negativos únicamente en las tasas de crecimiento de los precios de gasolina; sin ningún efecto en el precio del gas. En esta investigación, el tipo de cambio es utilizado como variable de control por su relación con los precios de los hidrocarburos. Los datos empleados en el análisis son oficiales sin considerar el exceso de mortalidad por la causa específica del COVID-19. Este tipo de análisis en Latinoamérica, hasta donde los autores saben, es novedoso y contribuye a la discusión de coyuntura entre la crisis de salud y su relación con la volatilidad de los precios de los energéticos.
{"title":"Impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en los precios de la gasolina y el gas natural en las principales economías de Latinoamérica","authors":"R. Mendoza-Rivera, F. Venegas-Martínez","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i3.654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i3.654","url":null,"abstract":"El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar el impacto de la pandemia COVID-19, medida a través del índice de fatalidad, en los precios de la gasolina y el gas natural en las principales economías en Latinoamérica: Brasil, México, Colombia, Perú, Chile y Uruguay. Estas economías no sólo son las más grandes de la región, sino también las más afectadas por la pandemia de COVID-19. Asimismo, estos países han mostrado, en las últimas décadas, una demanda ascendente de gasolina y gas natural. Esta investigación utiliza diversos modelos de datos panel con datos semanales (febrero 2020–febrero 2021). Los modelos de datos panel de efectos aleatorios a dos vías sugieren evidencia empírica de que las tasas de crecimiento de los índices de fatalidad, para todos los países en la muestra, tienen efectos negativos únicamente en las tasas de crecimiento de los precios de gasolina; sin ningún efecto en el precio del gas. En esta investigación, el tipo de cambio es utilizado como variable de control por su relación con los precios de los hidrocarburos. Los datos empleados en el análisis son oficiales sin considerar el exceso de mortalidad por la causa específica del COVID-19. Este tipo de análisis en Latinoamérica, hasta donde los autores saben, es novedoso y contribuye a la discusión de coyuntura entre la crisis de salud y su relación con la volatilidad de los precios de los energéticos.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124936106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.632
Andre Assis de Salles
This work aims to estimate the idiosyncratic risk of Latin American economies and emerging economies using heteroscedastic conditional models to verify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the risk associated with productive projects. The methodology used is based on the portfolio theory to estimate the idiosyncratic risk. The results highlight that Latin American economies are more susceptible to sanitary crises, such as the current pandemic, than emerging economies. The inability of emerging countries to generate the necessary savings to provide for their development imposes the need to attract resources for project financing and investment. Thus, determining the specific risk of Latin American countries is fundamental for international investors giving them another parameter when deciding on investment or financing on the continent. Originally, this work demonstrates how the sanitary crisis deriving from the Covid-19 pandemic affected the idiosyncratic or specific risk of Latin American economies using their capital market indicators. This study contributes to the assessment of Latin American economies specific risk or country risk at the beginning of the pandemic.
{"title":"COVID-19 Pandemic Initial Effects on the Idiosyncratic Risk in Latin America","authors":"Andre Assis de Salles","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i3.632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i3.632","url":null,"abstract":"This work aims to estimate the idiosyncratic risk of Latin American economies and emerging economies using heteroscedastic conditional models to verify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the risk associated with productive projects. The methodology used is based on the portfolio theory to estimate the idiosyncratic risk. The results highlight that Latin American economies are more susceptible to sanitary crises, such as the current pandemic, than emerging economies. The inability of emerging countries to generate the necessary savings to provide for their development imposes the need to attract resources for project financing and investment. Thus, determining the specific risk of Latin American countries is fundamental for international investors giving them another parameter when deciding on investment or financing on the continent. Originally, this work demonstrates how the sanitary crisis deriving from the Covid-19 pandemic affected the idiosyncratic or specific risk of Latin American economies using their capital market indicators. This study contributes to the assessment of Latin American economies specific risk or country risk at the beginning of the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128040262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.633
Luis Huesca Reynoso, Linda Irene Llamas Rembao, Xavier Holguer Jara Tamayo, César Octavio Vargas Téllez, David Arturo Rodriguez Guerrrero
The objective is to quantify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment, poverty and inequality in Mexico. The methodology is based on a probit model to identify individuals at risk of employment loss, whose earnings are set to zero in ENIGH 2018 to match changes in employment and earnings observed in between December 2019 and the May 2020 according to ENOE and ETOE surveys, respectively. MEXMOD, Mexico’s microsimulation model, is used to simulate tax-benefit policies based on the pre-COVID and COVID-scenarios. The results show that there was a loss of 12.1 million jobs. Poverty reached 60.16% and extreme poverty reached 29.73%; inequality grew 8.2%. It is recommended to strengthen social policy with extra funding (taxing the rich) to achieve greater redistribution. The limitation is that income distribution is held constant as we do not have ENIGH 2020. The originality is to offer timely measures of poverty and inequality using microsimulation techniques to overcome the lack of data during the pandemic. The research concludes that there are not automatic stabilizers to cope COVID-19 negative effects and cash-transfers are not sufficient to do so.
{"title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and inequality in Mexico","authors":"Luis Huesca Reynoso, Linda Irene Llamas Rembao, Xavier Holguer Jara Tamayo, César Octavio Vargas Téllez, David Arturo Rodriguez Guerrrero","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i3.633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i3.633","url":null,"abstract":"The objective is to quantify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment, poverty and inequality in Mexico. The methodology is based on a probit model to identify individuals at risk of employment loss, whose earnings are set to zero in ENIGH 2018 to match changes in employment and earnings observed in between December 2019 and the May 2020 according to ENOE and ETOE surveys, respectively. MEXMOD, Mexico’s microsimulation model, is used to simulate tax-benefit policies based on the pre-COVID and COVID-scenarios. The results show that there was a loss of 12.1 million jobs. Poverty reached 60.16% and extreme poverty reached 29.73%; inequality grew 8.2%. It is recommended to strengthen social policy with extra funding (taxing the rich) to achieve greater redistribution. The limitation is that income distribution is held constant as we do not have ENIGH 2020. The originality is to offer timely measures of poverty and inequality using microsimulation techniques to overcome the lack of data during the pandemic. The research concludes that there are not automatic stabilizers to cope COVID-19 negative effects and cash-transfers are not sufficient to do so.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114709656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-24DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.622
Leopoldo Gómez-Ramírez, Alexander Villarraga-Orjuela
The objective of this paper is to examine the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic in Mexico. To do so, we use a dynamic model of the interaction between Covid-19 and economic output. We find that expansionary policies are desirable but that they alone cannot prevent the acceleration of the pandemic. We also model supplementary policies, especially public health policies, and find that in their presence expansionary economic policies can put the economy on track while simultaneously addressing the pandemic. Our analysis’s implications are straightforward: countercyclical economic policies are desirable when there are other supplementary policies. A limitation of our analysis is that it is circumscribed to the Mexican context. The paper is a novel contribution to the burgeoning literature on Covid-19 in Mexico because it is the first which formally examines the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic. We conclude that both expansionary policies and supplementary policies are needed to achieve a sustainable recovery.
{"title":"Expansionary Policy in Pandemics, a Dynamic Model Examination","authors":"Leopoldo Gómez-Ramírez, Alexander Villarraga-Orjuela","doi":"10.21919/remef.v16i3.622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v16i3.622","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to examine the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic in Mexico. To do so, we use a dynamic model of the interaction between Covid-19 and economic output. We find that expansionary policies are desirable but that they alone cannot prevent the acceleration of the pandemic. We also model supplementary policies, especially public health policies, and find that in their presence expansionary economic policies can put the economy on track while simultaneously addressing the pandemic. Our analysis’s implications are straightforward: countercyclical economic policies are desirable when there are other supplementary policies. A limitation of our analysis is that it is circumscribed to the Mexican context. The paper is a novel contribution to the burgeoning literature on Covid-19 in Mexico because it is the first which formally examines the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic. We conclude that both expansionary policies and supplementary policies are needed to achieve a sustainable recovery.","PeriodicalId":237806,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115790730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-24DOI: 10.21919/remef.v16i3.642
Eduardo Rodríguez Juárez
Esta investigación analizó la relación entre la precarización de las condiciones laborales y el nivel de educación de los trabajadores mexicanos, en los primeros meses de la crisis sanitaria por COVID-19 en México. A través de un análisis sectorial y con datos de panel, para los meses de abril, mayo y junio del 2020, se construyó un índice para evaluar la precariedad laboral en los sectores económicos y se estimó un modelo econométrico para analizar la interacción entre las variables de estudio. Se encuentra que la crisis sanitaria por COVID-19 incrementó la precariedad laboral. Situación que hace imprescindible la construcción de políticas laborales-sectoriales. Su principal restricción es la información, la cual todavía es escasa y limitada en el tiempo. La originalidad de este estudio es su enfoque sectorial y su principal aporte es la evidencia de una relación positiva entre los sectores con mayor precarización y los trabajadores con menores credenciales educativas.
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