Intensifying flooding throughout the western United States threatens human infrastructure, human life, and ecological integrity. Flash floods are particularly dangerous because they rise quickly and often unexpectedly. Floodplains that are hydrologically connected to river channels can act as buffers to attenuate peak flows and slow flood movement, providing natural resilience against flood risks. Comparatively low-gradient reaches (1%–3% slopes) with wide floodplains (beads) have been identified as important for attenuating floods, yet the degree to which they can reduce peak flows is not well constrained. Additionally, the relative importance of attenuation mechanisms have not been discerned. We quantified flood attenuation provided by beads by utilizing two-dimensional hydrodynamic models simulating flash floods in three river beads located in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, United States. We quantified the (a) magnitude of attenuation, (b) total accessible floodplain volume, (c) volume of floodwater stored in floodplain depressions, (d) variability of flow path travel times, (e) floodplain heterogeneity, and (f) relative importance of these mechanisms in flood attenuation. We found unprecedently high discharge attenuation with an average 13.8% reduction in peak flow per kilometer reach length and continued attenuation up to the 100-year recurrence interval flood. For the studied sites the strongest correlations were between attenuation and storage in floodplain depressions. Flow path diversity metrics correlated best with attenuation for floods with a time-to-peak greater than 1 hr. Our findings also indicated that maintenance of high floodplain roughness and accessibility may be an effective strategy for bolstering attenuation of flash floods in mountain systems.
{"title":"The Relative Importance of Floodplain Storage and Flow Path Dispersion on Flood Attenuation in Mountain Streams","authors":"Nicholas Christensen, Ryan R. Morrison","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039628","url":null,"abstract":"Intensifying flooding throughout the western United States threatens human infrastructure, human life, and ecological integrity. Flash floods are particularly dangerous because they rise quickly and often unexpectedly. Floodplains that are hydrologically connected to river channels can act as buffers to attenuate peak flows and slow flood movement, providing natural resilience against flood risks. Comparatively low-gradient reaches (1%–3% slopes) with wide floodplains (beads) have been identified as important for attenuating floods, yet the degree to which they can reduce peak flows is not well constrained. Additionally, the relative importance of attenuation mechanisms have not been discerned. We quantified flood attenuation provided by beads by utilizing two-dimensional hydrodynamic models simulating flash floods in three river beads located in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, United States. We quantified the (a) magnitude of attenuation, (b) total accessible floodplain volume, (c) volume of floodwater stored in floodplain depressions, (d) variability of flow path travel times, (e) floodplain heterogeneity, and (f) relative importance of these mechanisms in flood attenuation. We found unprecedently high discharge attenuation with an average 13.8% reduction in peak flow per kilometer reach length and continued attenuation up to the 100-year recurrence interval flood. For the studied sites the strongest correlations were between attenuation and storage in floodplain depressions. Flow path diversity metrics correlated best with attenuation for floods with a time-to-peak greater than 1 hr. Our findings also indicated that maintenance of high floodplain roughness and accessibility may be an effective strategy for bolstering attenuation of flash floods in mountain systems.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"267 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Van Appledorn, N. R. De Jager, J. J. Rohweder, M. Windmuller-Campione, D. Griffin
The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.
{"title":"More Water, More of the Time: Spatial Changes in Flooding Over 83 Years in the Upper Mississippi River Floodplain and Relationships With Streamgage-Derived Proxies","authors":"M. Van Appledorn, N. R. De Jager, J. J. Rohweder, M. Windmuller-Campione, D. Griffin","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040614","url":null,"abstract":"The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Current models on solute transport often fail to reproduce discharge-dependent behavior of solute transport in stream reaches because they rely on the assumption of well-mixed conditions and fail to account for the complex coupling between in-stream and subsurface flow. StorAge Selection (SAS) functions describe outflow as a mixture of waters of different ages, providing a framework to overcome the well-mixed assumption in “traditional” transport models. In this study, we applied SAS functions to model solute transport from 13 slug tracer experiments conducted under varying hydrological conditions in a headwater stream reach. Using SAS function parameters (expressed in units of volume) together with measurements of groundwater (GW) levels and streambed microtopography, we partitioned the total water storage within the study reach into distinct components: advective storage, in-stream transient storage, tracer-derived hyporheic storage, and GW level-derived hyporheic storage. This partitioning assumes that transport processes and subsurface water flow in stream reaches are associated with different storage volumes. We found positive linear relationships between discharge and age-ranked, advective, and tracer-derived hyporheic storage. In-stream transient storage increased with discharge up to 17 L s−1, corresponding to the discharge threshold above which streambed sediments became completely submerged, and declined at higher flows. This pattern likely reflects the contribution of eddies at lower discharge levels and highlights the importance of in-stream transient storage for solute transport. Our results demonstrate that partitioning the total water storage in a reach–enabled only through applying SAS functions–is essential for understanding and modeling solute transport under varying hydrological conditions.
目前的溶质输运模型往往不能再现河流河段中溶质输运的流量依赖行为，因为它们依赖于充分混合条件的假设，而不能考虑流内流和地下流之间的复杂耦合。储存选择（SAS）函数将流出水描述为不同年龄的水的混合物，为克服“传统”运输模型中的混合假设提供了一个框架。在这项研究中，我们应用SAS函数来模拟在不同水文条件下的13个段塞流示踪剂实验中的溶质运移。利用SAS函数参数（以体积单位表示）以及地下水水位和河床微地形测量，我们将研究范围内的总储水量划分为不同的组成部分：平流储水量、流内瞬时储水量、示踪剂衍生的地下储水量和GW水平衍生的地下储水量。这种划分假设了运输过程和河流河段的地下水流与不同的储存量有关。我们发现放电与年龄分级、平流和示踪剂衍生的低循环储存呈正线性关系。当流量达到17 L s−1时，河道内瞬时库存量增加，超过该流量，河床沉积物完全被淹没；这种模式可能反映了低流量水平下涡流的贡献，并突出了流内瞬态储存对溶质运输的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，划分河段的总储水量（仅通过应用SAS函数实现）对于理解和模拟不同水文条件下的溶质运移至关重要。
{"title":"Partitioning Water Storage in Stream Reaches: Implications for Solute Transport Under Varying Hydrological Conditions","authors":"C. Glaser, E. Bonanno, G. Blöschl, J. Klaus","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040372","url":null,"abstract":"Current models on solute transport often fail to reproduce discharge-dependent behavior of solute transport in stream reaches because they rely on the assumption of well-mixed conditions and fail to account for the complex coupling between in-stream and subsurface flow. StorAge Selection (SAS) functions describe outflow as a mixture of waters of different ages, providing a framework to overcome the well-mixed assumption in “traditional” transport models. In this study, we applied SAS functions to model solute transport from 13 slug tracer experiments conducted under varying hydrological conditions in a headwater stream reach. Using SAS function parameters (expressed in units of volume) together with measurements of groundwater (GW) levels and streambed microtopography, we partitioned the total water storage within the study reach into distinct components: advective storage, in-stream transient storage, tracer-derived hyporheic storage, and GW level-derived hyporheic storage. This partitioning assumes that transport processes and subsurface water flow in stream reaches are associated with different storage volumes. We found positive linear relationships between discharge and age-ranked, advective, and tracer-derived hyporheic storage. In-stream transient storage increased with discharge up to 17 L s<sup>−1</sup>, corresponding to the discharge threshold above which streambed sediments became completely submerged, and declined at higher flows. This pattern likely reflects the contribution of eddies at lower discharge levels and highlights the importance of in-stream transient storage for solute transport. Our results demonstrate that partitioning the total water storage in a reach–enabled only through applying SAS functions–is essential for understanding and modeling solute transport under varying hydrological conditions.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pengfei Qi, Yunquan Wang, Rui Ma, Jieliang Zhou, Harry Vereecken, Budiman Minasny, Ziyong Sun, Gaofeng Zhu, Kun Zhang
Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are widely used to estimate soil hydraulic parameters based on easily accessible soil information, playing an important role in the parameterization of earth surface models. However, conventional PTFs, developed using measurements from small volume soil samples, often exhibit significant deviations from field observations and substantial variability when applied to field-scale hydrological models. Here, we introduce new Site-Specific Pedotransfer Functions (SPTFs) that combine deep learning with physics-based modeling of soil hydrological processes. SPTFs differ from conventional PTFs in two aspects: they utilize time-series data as input and they directly optimize simulated soil water content by the 1-D Richardson–Richards equation with observations, ensuring improved applicability to field conditions. We trained and tested the model using two years of soil moisture observations from 1,181 sites in the International Soil Moisture Network. Evaluation using field data demonstrates that SPTFs achieve a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.65 and root mean squared error of 0.072 cm3 cm−3 in simulating soil water content at the depth of 0.05 m on the test set (n = 179), which is close to the values predicted by the inverse modeling method, while maintaining the computational efficiency of PTFs. This study highlights the promise of SPTFs as a robust parameterization framework for localized field applications.
土壤传递函数（PTFs）被广泛应用于基于易于获取的土壤信息估计土壤水力参数，在地表模型的参数化中起着重要作用。然而，利用小体积土壤样品的测量方法开发的传统ptf，在应用于现场尺度水文模型时，往往与现场观测结果有很大的偏差，并且存在很大的变异性。在这里，我们引入了新的场地特定土壤传递函数（SPTFs），该函数将深度学习与基于物理的土壤水文过程建模相结合。sptf与传统PTFs的不同之处有两个方面：它们利用时间序列数据作为输入，并通过1-D Richardson-Richards方程与观测结果直接优化模拟土壤含水量，确保提高对现场条件的适用性。我们使用国际土壤湿度网络中1181个站点的两年土壤湿度观测数据对该模型进行了训练和测试。现场数据评价表明，在测试集（n = 179）上，sptf模拟0.05 m深度土壤含水量的Nash-Sutcliffe效率为0.65，均方根误差为0.072 cm3 cm - 3，在保持PTFs计算效率的前提下，与反建模方法预测值接近。这项研究强调了sptf作为本地化现场应用的鲁棒参数化框架的前景。
{"title":"Physics-Informed Neural Networks to Develop Site-Specific Pedotransfer Functions","authors":"Pengfei Qi, Yunquan Wang, Rui Ma, Jieliang Zhou, Harry Vereecken, Budiman Minasny, Ziyong Sun, Gaofeng Zhu, Kun Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041265","url":null,"abstract":"Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are widely used to estimate soil hydraulic parameters based on easily accessible soil information, playing an important role in the parameterization of earth surface models. However, conventional PTFs, developed using measurements from small volume soil samples, often exhibit significant deviations from field observations and substantial variability when applied to field-scale hydrological models. Here, we introduce new Site-Specific Pedotransfer Functions (SPTFs) that combine deep learning with physics-based modeling of soil hydrological processes. SPTFs differ from conventional PTFs in two aspects: they utilize time-series data as input and they directly optimize simulated soil water content by the 1-D Richardson–Richards equation with observations, ensuring improved applicability to field conditions. We trained and tested the model using two years of soil moisture observations from 1,181 sites in the International Soil Moisture Network. Evaluation using field data demonstrates that SPTFs achieve a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.65 and root mean squared error of 0.072 cm<sup>3</sup> cm<sup>−3</sup> in simulating soil water content at the depth of 0.05 m on the test set (<i>n</i> = 179), which is close to the values predicted by the inverse modeling method, while maintaining the computational efficiency of PTFs. This study highlights the promise of SPTFs as a robust parameterization framework for localized field applications.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. A. Chaudhry, S. Kiemle, A. Pohlmeier, R. Helmig, J. A. Huisman
Saline water evaporation from porous media is a key phenomenon in the terrestrial environment and is linked to problems such as soil salinization and weathering of building materials. Recent modeling studies suggest the development of local instabilities due to density differences during evaporation in case of saturated porous media with high permeability. To experimentally investigate this and improve our understanding of near surface solute accumulation, we performed evaporation experiments on two types of porous media (F36 and W3) with intrinsic permeabilities that differed by two orders of magnitude. Using magnetic resonance imaging (23Na-MRI), we monitored the development of solute accumulation and subsequent redistribution during evaporation under wicking conditions. The F36 sample showed an initial enrichment at the surface, but soon after a downwards moving plume developed that redistributed NaCl into the column. Average depth profiles of Na concentrations obtained from 3D imaging showed that the surface concentration reached only 2.5 mol L−1, well below the solubility limit. In contrast, the W3 sample with lower permeability showed enrichment in a shallow near-surface zone reaching a concentration of over 6 mol L−1. No fingering occurred although the mean evaporation rate was similar to that of F36 sand. Comparison of experimental results with numerical simulations using DuMux for both samples showed qualitative agreement between measured and modeled solute concentrations. This study experimentally confirms the importance of density-driven redistribution of solutes in case of evaporating saturated porous media, carrying implications for predicting evaporation rates and the time to start of salt crust formation.
{"title":"Non-Invasive Imaging of Solute Redistribution Below Evaporating Surfaces Using 23Na-MRI","authors":"M. A. Chaudhry, S. Kiemle, A. Pohlmeier, R. Helmig, J. A. Huisman","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041207","url":null,"abstract":"Saline water evaporation from porous media is a key phenomenon in the terrestrial environment and is linked to problems such as soil salinization and weathering of building materials. Recent modeling studies suggest the development of local instabilities due to density differences during evaporation in case of saturated porous media with high permeability. To experimentally investigate this and improve our understanding of near surface solute accumulation, we performed evaporation experiments on two types of porous media (F36 and W3) with intrinsic permeabilities that differed by two orders of magnitude. Using magnetic resonance imaging (<sup>23</sup>Na-MRI), we monitored the development of solute accumulation and subsequent redistribution during evaporation under wicking conditions. The F36 sample showed an initial enrichment at the surface, but soon after a downwards moving plume developed that redistributed NaCl into the column. Average depth profiles of Na concentrations obtained from 3D imaging showed that the surface concentration reached only 2.5 mol L<sup>−1</sup>, well below the solubility limit. In contrast, the W3 sample with lower permeability showed enrichment in a shallow near-surface zone reaching a concentration of over 6 mol L<sup>−1</sup>. No fingering occurred although the mean evaporation rate was similar to that of F36 sand. Comparison of experimental results with numerical simulations using DuMu<sup>x</sup> for both samples showed qualitative agreement between measured and modeled solute concentrations. This study experimentally confirms the importance of density-driven redistribution of solutes in case of evaporating saturated porous media, carrying implications for predicting evaporation rates and the time to start of salt crust formation.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The prediction of river planimetric evolution and related interactions with anthropic activities and public safety is one of the most critical aspects in the planning of a sustainable land-use. Since the beginning of the past century, a large number of theoretical and experimental studies have focused on the investigation of river meandering dynamics, coming to sometimes contrasting conclusions in the forecast of the associated bend sequence pattern. Drawing inspiration from the phenomenological equivalence between fluid-dynamic and morpho-dynamic dispersion within the river floodplain, the present contribution proposes an explicit analytical solution in terms of scale-dependent and equilibrium sinuosity. Such analytical solution, which reveals the strong dependence of river equilibrium planform on valley bank-full velocity distribution, is successfully validated on the basis of a field data set provided via a restoration pilot project by Basilicata Region Environment and Energy Department (Italy), and further discussed by related lagrangian simulations. Moreover, the governing equation from which the equilibrium solution originates is shown to be compatible with the interpretation of near-equilibrium dynamics highlighted by stochastic numerical experiments documented in the literature.
{"title":"A Cascade-Like Energy Dissipation Mechanism Behind the Gradual Achievement of River Equilibrium Sinuosity","authors":"M. Pannone","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041123","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of river planimetric evolution and related interactions with anthropic activities and public safety is one of the most critical aspects in the planning of a sustainable land-use. Since the beginning of the past century, a large number of theoretical and experimental studies have focused on the investigation of river meandering dynamics, coming to sometimes contrasting conclusions in the forecast of the associated bend sequence pattern. Drawing inspiration from the phenomenological equivalence between fluid-dynamic and morpho-dynamic dispersion within the river floodplain, the present contribution proposes an explicit analytical solution in terms of scale-dependent and equilibrium sinuosity. Such analytical solution, which reveals the strong dependence of river equilibrium planform on valley bank-full velocity distribution, is successfully validated on the basis of a field data set provided via a restoration pilot project by Basilicata Region Environment and Energy Department (Italy), and further discussed by related lagrangian simulations. Moreover, the governing equation from which the equilibrium solution originates is shown to be compatible with the interpretation of near-equilibrium dynamics highlighted by stochastic numerical experiments documented in the literature.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yubo Jia, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh, Bingnan Zhao, Te Zhang, Jiangdong Chu, Haijiang Wu
Accurate runoff forecasting helps mitigate flooding and drought risks and ensure water security under changing conditions. Compared to deterministic prediction models, interval prediction can more effectively quantify uncertainty, enhancing practical applicability. However, the Mixture Density Network (MDN) model—a state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling approach in hydrology—is susceptible to bias from distributional misspecification, and its prediction intervals are often overly wide, reducing practical utility. We therefore innovatively incorporated the Weighted Conformal Inference (WCI) strategy, which accounts for distributional shifts in runoff sequences, and integrated it with MDN to develop the WCI-MDN model for runoff interval prediction. To validate the effectiveness of the WCI strategy, we constructed six models in total: MDNs and WCI-MDNs under three distributions—Gaussian Mixture (GMM), Laplace Mixture (LMM), and Countable Mixtures of Asymmetric Laplacians (CMAL)—and evaluated their accuracy and robustness using data from 222 basins in the CAMELS-AUS data set. Results indicated that among the three MDN models, the LMM distribution achieved the best interval prediction performance, followed by the CMAL and GMM distributions. After introducing the WCI strategy, the coverage width-based criterion (CWC) for GMM, LMM, and CMAL distributions decreased by approximately 61.1%, 48.7%, and 54.3%, respectively, across all basins, demonstrating that the WCI-MDNs achieved higher prediction reliability. Furthermore, compared to the MDNs, the standard deviation of the CWC for the WCI-MDNs was reduced by 66.7%–81.8%, indicating higher robustness. Thus, the study improved the existing MDNs, providing a promising new approach for runoff interval prediction.
{"title":"A Novel Hybrid Predictive Model Based on Mixture Density Networks With Weighted Conformal Inference Strategy for Runoff Interval Prediction Across Australia","authors":"Yubo Jia, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh, Bingnan Zhao, Te Zhang, Jiangdong Chu, Haijiang Wu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039807","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate runoff forecasting helps mitigate flooding and drought risks and ensure water security under changing conditions. Compared to deterministic prediction models, interval prediction can more effectively quantify uncertainty, enhancing practical applicability. However, the Mixture Density Network (MDN) model—a state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling approach in hydrology—is susceptible to bias from distributional misspecification, and its prediction intervals are often overly wide, reducing practical utility. We therefore innovatively incorporated the Weighted Conformal Inference (WCI) strategy, which accounts for distributional shifts in runoff sequences, and integrated it with MDN to develop the WCI-MDN model for runoff interval prediction. To validate the effectiveness of the WCI strategy, we constructed six models in total: MDNs and WCI-MDNs under three distributions—Gaussian Mixture (GMM), Laplace Mixture (LMM), and Countable Mixtures of Asymmetric Laplacians (CMAL)—and evaluated their accuracy and robustness using data from 222 basins in the CAMELS-AUS data set. Results indicated that among the three MDN models, the LMM distribution achieved the best interval prediction performance, followed by the CMAL and GMM distributions. After introducing the WCI strategy, the coverage width-based criterion (CWC) for GMM, LMM, and CMAL distributions decreased by approximately 61.1%, 48.7%, and 54.3%, respectively, across all basins, demonstrating that the WCI-MDNs achieved higher prediction reliability. Furthermore, compared to the MDNs, the standard deviation of the CWC for the WCI-MDNs was reduced by 66.7%–81.8%, indicating higher robustness. Thus, the study improved the existing MDNs, providing a promising new approach for runoff interval prediction.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is increasingly used worldwide to maintain, enhance and secure freshwater availability. However, its implementation presents challenges due to the potential risk of virus contamination from injected water sources such as stormwater runoff and treated wastewater, as well as premature breakthrough of native groundwater caused by density-dependent flow. This study incorporates the virus transport and removal processes into a 2D-axisymmetric numerical model of coupled density-dependent groundwater flow and salt transport, accounting for physical heterogeneity with varying connectivity features, correlation lengths and layer structures. Geochemical heterogeneity is modeled using Colloid Filtration Theory (CFT), linking attachment rate coefficients to permeability distribution. The results reveal that density-dependent flow enhances virus removal, particularly during the storage phase, by distorting virus plume and increasing virus attachment. Neglecting density effects leads to an underestimation of virus removal, which in turn overestimates the required post-treatment intensity, especially under stricter potable standards. Aquifer heterogeneity exerts a coupled and dual control on density-driven virus removal, enhancing it through high-permeability connectivity during storage but reducing it through preferential flow and limited attachment during recovery. This study underscores the potential of native brackish-to-saline groundwater conditions to enhance virus attenuation in ASR systems. The findings contribute to existing guidelines for site selection and ASR system design, along with considerations for pre-/post-treatment and/or desalination facilities, by emphasizing the importance of density-dependent flow, aquifer heterogeneity, and project-specific objectives of ASR.
{"title":"Impact of Density-Dependent Flow and Aquifer Heterogeneity on Virus Transport and Removal During Aquifer Storage and Recovery","authors":"Hongkai Li, Zhilin Guo, Kewei Chen, Rixin Wu, Xuchen Zhai, Zhenzhong Zeng, Chunmiao Zheng","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040755","url":null,"abstract":"Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is increasingly used worldwide to maintain, enhance and secure freshwater availability. However, its implementation presents challenges due to the potential risk of virus contamination from injected water sources such as stormwater runoff and treated wastewater, as well as premature breakthrough of native groundwater caused by density-dependent flow. This study incorporates the virus transport and removal processes into a 2D-axisymmetric numerical model of coupled density-dependent groundwater flow and salt transport, accounting for physical heterogeneity with varying connectivity features, correlation lengths and layer structures. Geochemical heterogeneity is modeled using Colloid Filtration Theory (CFT), linking attachment rate coefficients to permeability distribution. The results reveal that density-dependent flow enhances virus removal, particularly during the storage phase, by distorting virus plume and increasing virus attachment. Neglecting density effects leads to an underestimation of virus removal, which in turn overestimates the required post-treatment intensity, especially under stricter potable standards. Aquifer heterogeneity exerts a coupled and dual control on density-driven virus removal, enhancing it through high-permeability connectivity during storage but reducing it through preferential flow and limited attachment during recovery. This study underscores the potential of native brackish-to-saline groundwater conditions to enhance virus attenuation in ASR systems. The findings contribute to existing guidelines for site selection and ASR system design, along with considerations for pre-/post-treatment and/or desalination facilities, by emphasizing the importance of density-dependent flow, aquifer heterogeneity, and project-specific objectives of ASR.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding how snowmelt is partitioned into different hydrologic flowpaths/storages—and how this partitioning varies over time—is essential for predicting water availability and quality under climate variability. In this study, we examine the time-variance of snowmelt partitioning patterns (SPP) in response to interannual variations in antecedent (Fall) rainfall before snowmelt seasons, across two snow-dominated catchments in Canada and Sweden with contrasting geologic and topographic features. Using integrated subsurface–surface flow and transport modeling, combined with observational data, we simulate the partitioning of snowmelt into shallow flowpath, deep flowpath, evapotranspiration, and long-term storage. To generalize our findings beyond the two case studies, we design a suite of virtual experiments that systematically vary catchment slope and the extent of the hydraulic conductivity's vertical and lateral heterogeneity. Results show that lateral heterogeneity in conductivity mediates the sensitivity of snowmelt partitioning to interannual variations in antecedent rainfall. While laterally homogeneous catchments display minimal sensitivity of snowmelt partitioning pattern to wet or dry Fall rainfall conditions, catchments with heterogeneous lateral structure store a significantly larger portion of snowmelt and reduce snow-sourced shallow flow contributions in years with high pre-snow rainfall than years with low pre-snow rainfall. In contrast, while slope and vertical conductivity architecture govern SPP, they play a limited role in mediating SPP's temporal sensitivity to antecedent rainfall variability. These findings reveal that subsurface structure—including the extent of lateral subsurface heterogeneity—modulates the influence of climate variability on snowmelt partitioning and catchment hydrologic function. This has implications for predicting streamflow responses, groundwater recharge, and solute transport under changing climate regimes, and highlights the importance of representing time-variable hydrologic behavior in hydrologic models.
{"title":"Time Variance in Snowmelt Partitioning: A Mechanistic Modeling Approach to Explore the Role of Catchment Structure and Pre-Snow Rainfall","authors":"Mahbod Taherian, Ali A. Ameli","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040679","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how snowmelt is partitioned into different hydrologic flowpaths/storages—and how this partitioning varies over time—is essential for predicting water availability and quality under climate variability. In this study, we examine the time-variance of snowmelt partitioning patterns (SPP) in response to interannual variations in antecedent (Fall) rainfall before snowmelt seasons, across two snow-dominated catchments in Canada and Sweden with contrasting geologic and topographic features. Using integrated subsurface–surface flow and transport modeling, combined with observational data, we simulate the partitioning of snowmelt into shallow flowpath, deep flowpath, evapotranspiration, and long-term storage. To generalize our findings beyond the two case studies, we design a suite of virtual experiments that systematically vary catchment slope and the extent of the hydraulic conductivity's vertical and lateral heterogeneity. Results show that lateral heterogeneity in conductivity mediates the sensitivity of snowmelt partitioning to interannual variations in antecedent rainfall. While laterally homogeneous catchments display minimal sensitivity of snowmelt partitioning pattern to wet or dry Fall rainfall conditions, catchments with heterogeneous lateral structure store a significantly larger portion of snowmelt and reduce snow-sourced shallow flow contributions in years with high pre-snow rainfall than years with low pre-snow rainfall. In contrast, while slope and vertical conductivity architecture govern SPP, they play a limited role in mediating SPP's temporal sensitivity to antecedent rainfall variability. These findings reveal that subsurface structure—including the extent of lateral subsurface heterogeneity—modulates the influence of climate variability on snowmelt partitioning and catchment hydrologic function. This has implications for predicting streamflow responses, groundwater recharge, and solute transport under changing climate regimes, and highlights the importance of representing time-variable hydrologic behavior in hydrologic models.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qiang An, Liu Liu, Lixin Wang, Arie Staal, Yongming Cheng, Jing Liu, Guanhua Huang
Water security in China is challenged by pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in water resources, driven by distinct moisture sources: advected (externally transported) and recycled (locally generated) moisture. However, the quantitative impacts of different moisture sources on hydrological variability remain unexplored. This study quantified their contributions to precipitation (P) and water availability (WA) across China and its nine major river basins from 2000 to 2022 using atmospheric moisture tracking. We propose a novel decomposition framework to partition the variability of total P and WA into independent contributions from each moisture source and their synergistic interactions. We find that synergistic effects between the two sources amplify national-scale spatial disparities but mitigate intra-basin heterogeneity in five of the nine major basins. At the national scale, advected moisture peaks earlier in the year than recycled moisture. However, a distinct north-south contrast emerges: southern regions depend more on advected moisture, while northern regions depend primarily on recycled moisture. Unsynchronized peaks between advected and recycled moisture in southern basins buffer seasonal extremes, whereas synchronized peaks in northern basins intensify intra-annual variability. These findings underscore the need for region-specific water management: climate-informed strategies for advected moisture-dependent regions and land-atmosphere feedback-aware approaches for recycled moisture-reliant areas. This study provides a framework for addressing hydrological imbalances under changing climate and land-use patterns.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal Contributions of Advected and Recycled Moisture to Water Resource Variability in China","authors":"Qiang An, Liu Liu, Lixin Wang, Arie Staal, Yongming Cheng, Jing Liu, Guanhua Huang","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041192","url":null,"abstract":"Water security in China is challenged by pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in water resources, driven by distinct moisture sources: advected (externally transported) and recycled (locally generated) moisture. However, the quantitative impacts of different moisture sources on hydrological variability remain unexplored. This study quantified their contributions to precipitation (P) and water availability (WA) across China and its nine major river basins from 2000 to 2022 using atmospheric moisture tracking. We propose a novel decomposition framework to partition the variability of total P and WA into independent contributions from each moisture source and their synergistic interactions. We find that synergistic effects between the two sources amplify national-scale spatial disparities but mitigate intra-basin heterogeneity in five of the nine major basins. At the national scale, advected moisture peaks earlier in the year than recycled moisture. However, a distinct north-south contrast emerges: southern regions depend more on advected moisture, while northern regions depend primarily on recycled moisture. Unsynchronized peaks between advected and recycled moisture in southern basins buffer seasonal extremes, whereas synchronized peaks in northern basins intensify intra-annual variability. These findings underscore the need for region-specific water management: climate-informed strategies for advected moisture-dependent regions and land-atmosphere feedback-aware approaches for recycled moisture-reliant areas. This study provides a framework for addressing hydrological imbalances under changing climate and land-use patterns.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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